Tag Archives: var

Commonsense ideas behind Taleb’s rhetorical flourishes | FT.com

At the national level, the system is more fragile. One tall tower is more likely to fall in a storm than a lawn of grass. This leads to Taleb’s contention that US federal debt is the most fragile of all, and should be decentralised, because default is unthinkable. Hence, “I’m kind of happy with what’s happening in the US now. We’d like the government periodically to come back with a plan, just like a corporation that has a debt addiction.”

Implementing this idea in practice without extreme volatility will be hard. But the Taleb arguments remain strong. Fragility, he insists, trumps growth. If a plane has an elevated chance of crashing, even if that chance is very small, we would give that priority over its speed or its price. So, governments should have a risk manager’s mindset, and not try to prod the economy into growing. Without a risk-averse mindset, risks will grow.

Source: FT.com

Part ll

HatTip to Dave Lull

Nassim Taleb mp3 Audio Added

Note that you can find posts that have audio or video in them by clicking on their Category in the right side bar.
Using a site I found that extracts audio from YouTube videos (this one actually works) FetchMP3.com I’m able to add some more audio files. I attached them to their individual video posts but here’s the links as well.

Nassim-Taleb-3-La-Ciudad-de-las-Ideas-2009.mp3
Nassim-Taleb-Angry-October-2009.mp3
Nassim-Taleb-attacks-VaR-in-Congress.mp3
Nassim-Taleb-Bloomberg-April-2009.mp3
NassimTaleb-Moscow-February2010-trades.mp3
NassimTaleb-IanBremmer-Zeitgeist2009.mp3

While I’m at it I’m also including this mp3 from a Duke University podcast. Especially for those of us who don’t have much experience in the market, this talk is interesting. The talk is called The Black Swan Theory.
Daniel-Egger-Founder-Chairman-Open-Source-Risk-Management-LLC.mp3

In Search of the Writer-Philosopher: N.N. Taleb « David L.

Shared by JohnH
David attended the recent Hard Problems symposium. His account does read a little bit like a scene in a movie. Check out the full post at the link above.

Taleb decried Academia, and Finance, the two being intimately connected. The former he rebuked because it was teaching all of the wrong things in the vulgar act of moneymaking—business; the latter for obvious reasons, being the locus of the recession. The Academics in the panel didn’t want to hear it; they wanted Academia and their methods of teaching to be exalted and not to be associated with vulgar finance.

Of course, there were some economist or would be economist in the audience. Indeed, when Taleb denounce VaR and the methods used in Finance, I noticed some young turks shaking their heads, I could hear them thinking: I mean, Harvard couldn’t be teaching us methods that don’t work, this is the epitome of knowledge, Taleb must be wrong and Harvard Business School right. However, these kids should be learning the scientific method: if your models, theories, tools, don’t work admit your wrong and change them. Alas, admitting you are wrong is so much difficult and it takes courage.

The panelist answer questions in long winded narratives; I was seeing Taleb’s indignation increased because non of the questions address his problem. Time was running out; and some last minute swipes at Taleb over the merit of the Noble Peace Price; the tension was palpable. Time is up, five a clock, Taleb walks out of the auditorium. I thought: here he is trying to promote his ideas, here he is in the suppose epitome of knowledge: Harvard University, here he is!– and far too many of the seats are empty. Most of the people were outside enjoying the wonderful sunny weather.

I am still kicking myself for not asking my question in public, but I wanted an answer, nonetheless. So I figure Taleb must be somewhere in the building. I grabbed my stuff and walkout into the main lounge nonchalantly. I saw him walking towards the auditorium.

“ Mr. Taleb I have a question?” trying to walk along with him.
He grumble.

“Mr. Taleb do you think we should Nationalist the Banks?” Trying to speedily read my question and trying to sound proper.

“No, let the banks destroy themselves.” he said grumbly, And I stopped and saw him walk into the auditorium.

Of course, from reading his books, I know he has a sense of humor and he had just come out of a very intense, emotional, meeting; thus, I didn’t take his answer seriously—and we shouldn’t.

I went back to brew myself a drink; a minute later, he was walking fast ready to make his escape from this suffocating place. I looked at his face and said  “have a good evening” he smiled at me and went his own way. With that he made a convert of me.