Tag Archives: Thaler

Weinstein, Thaler, Virtue Signaling, Ottomans, Catalunya, Playboy, Monsanto, Silver Rule – Twitter

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@nntaleb On my way to Moscow for a lecture at Moscow State U. Tuesday Permalink 9:27 PM – 14 Oct 2017

@nntaleb & rape apologist Permalink 8:47 PM – 14 Oct 2017

@nntaleb There is enough to show that CNN BS vendor journalist Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss is misogynist & has pro-fascist pro-Alqaeda tendencies. Permalink 4:47 PM – 14 Oct 2017

@nntaleb witchhunts Permalink 4:07 PM – 14 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Acceptable; silence for $$ only so if perpetrator will not harm others.https://twitter.com/inkion/status/919321058464768000   Permalink 3:01 PM – 14 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Le bouc émissairehttps://twitter.com/drudge_report/status/919313113144426496   Permalink 2:47 PM – 14 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Using like @dandrezner a strawman to tag someone you don’t like “racist”,”sexist”, “somethingist” to trigger whichhunts is morally repellent Permalink 2:02 PM – 14 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Vile @dandrezner transformed my disaproval of encouraging further rape w/$$ for silence as “sexist”. What do to him?https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 1:17 PM – 14 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Actors represents to us on the screen how other citizens are; but they are too fake to be like other citizens. No #skininthegame, all image Permalink 12:42 PM – 14 Oct 2017

@sicruzado That being said McGowan must admit it wasn’t correct to make a deal on her silence. She traded her integrity for “career”. Permalink 11:12 AM – 14 Oct 2017

@amyalkon Keeping silent as trade for money & fame ultimately means selling out others down to road to be victimized – ugliest self-interest. Permalink 8:15 AM – 14 Oct 2017

@nntaleb By what logic is accepting payment to perpetuate the system NOT creating future victims? Selling one’s silence is non negociable ethically. Permalink 8:05 AM – 14 Oct 2017

@nntaleb No, imbecile. It is payment to stay silent! Permalink 7:23 AM – 14 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Or, worse, blackmail. @schmittpaula Permalink 7:14 AM – 14 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Any financial transaction of the sort is just prostitution.https://twitter.com/schmittpaula/status/918780641919033344   Permalink 6:51 AM – 14 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Paper will be on Archiv next Tue. Permalink 6:43 AM – 14 Oct 2017

@____AGM____ This paper destroys political science BS models.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/919188024457560069   Permalink 6:10 AM – 14 Oct 2017

@keithwalkiewicz “There exist a kind of people for whom life is some kind of project…” – @nntaleb #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/MsHHVagLnk Permalink 6:10 AM – 14 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach, forthcoming in Quantitative Finance. pic.twitter.com/YQMb2WhbhL Permalink 6:07 AM – 14 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A friendly probability question #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/e47QM8THA6 Permalink 12:04 PM – 13 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Flunked. This leaves no tail on dish, likely to be dyed pasta.https://twitter.com/EduQuinn/status/918572125870534657   Permalink 1:21 PM – 12 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Stupid pple have political “scientist” friends. Blocking them keeps your feed clean of political scientists & other bullshitters. Gabish? Permalink 9:28 AM – 12 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Romans wd despise today’s scholars of Rome, as “tawkers”, nonrisktakers, e.g., a nondoer “expert” on Stoicism s.a.@mpigliucci #skininthegame Permalink 6:40 AM – 12 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Most of all, Romans gave actors a pariah rank in society, because they “faked” by profession. #skininthegame Permalink 6:34 AM – 12 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Romans believed in Lindy. They detested theory, wanted results. They never mistook technology for science. #LindyEffecthttps://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/918463935011057665   Permalink 6:31 AM – 12 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Shin and Waw, obvious. J2a haplogroup. Permalink 6:27 AM – 12 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Comment 1: A few idiots ranting here (now blocked) didn’t get that barbers, technologists & artisans are not included in my hobbyist list. Permalink 5:07 PM – 11 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Some pursuits such as 1) love, 2) science, and 3) politics are more genuine when carried out by hobbyists rather than professionals. Permalink 2:16 PM – 11 Oct 2017

@BlueSertorius I think you did not understand his books then. (Taleb on twitter)=(taleb on books)^2 and I fucking love it Permalink 11:19 AM – 11 Oct 2017

@nntaleb WEINSTEIN Punish him for exploitation of women. But he seeking treatment for libido Not misuse of power/hypocrisy/virtue signaling! Permalink 7:26 AM – 11 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Το oνομα μου είναι *Νίκος* στα Ελληνικαhttps://twitter.com/NBDruid/status/918091350335213568   Permalink 6:27 AM – 11 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A problem of loaded dice https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/LoadedDice.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/lTlvz6OWyl”>  pic.twitter.com/lTlvz6OWyl Permalink 6:03 AM – 11 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Every few days, I find myself lamenting U. Eco’s absence. No living figure is that rich: fertile, erudite, playful, charming,& Mediterraneanhttps://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/917429987044679680   Permalink 11:30 AM – 10 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Dakhil origin: Aramaic corrupted, not Arb (DKL) pic.twitter.com/YMDqnJcfgJ Permalink 10:20 AM – 10 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Not of word of Arabic in this Leb. sentence: Dakhil rabb (Fear Lord), Canaanite fann: Greek (pneuma) bi: Aramaic Ligha: Greek (logos)https://twitter.com/Abbinus/status/917784833773985793   Permalink 10:17 AM – 10 Oct 2017

@garyruskin Reporting on the World’s Most Controversial Farm Chemical, via @CivilEats @TheBostonWriter http://bit.ly/2fYsgBr   @careygillam Permalink 5:47 AM – 10 Oct 2017

@nntaleb I confess I had someone specific in mind Loss aversion punishes Much harder to be asked “why is there is a statue?” than why there isn’t onehttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/902138152281919488   Permalink 3:43 AM – 10 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A second probability problem #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/S6Q7Uwddsu Permalink 3:33 PM – 9 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Ana méṡé ma3ak. La nġayyer min Faddoul ṡwayy. Bass l”3″ aḣsan min el rusé.https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/917495082017796096   Permalink 2:05 PM – 9 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Maltese works because it has minimal switches @turlevnon pic.twitter.com/zaPWxxGzZH Permalink 1:30 PM – 9 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Na22e 7arf ma7al l ع (bil siryéné ܥ wbil aramé ע ) lallébnéné ljdid. ч amma 3 ? Permalink 10:19 AM – 9 Oct 2017

@JulianAssange Richard Thaler just won the Bank of Sweden Prize for economics (there is no Nobel prize for economics). Thaler is dangerous proponent of state totalitarianism who wants to eliminate unsurveilled human economic exchange. Sweden is the most cashless society.https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/796007237458206720   Permalink 10:06 AM – 9 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Pick a letter as substitute for ع (equiv to ܥ in Syriac or ע in Aramaic) for Modern Lebanese. ч or 3 (note that ч is from the Cyrillic) Permalink 7:00 AM – 9 Oct 2017

@GreenRupertRead Delighted: my motion on extending the @PrecPrinciple to cover X-risks and research-funding into them just PASSED overwhelmingly at #gpconf Permalink 3:41 AM – 9 Oct 2017

@nntaleb The @EUDelegationTur doesn’t get that the Turks didn’t “come to” Mardin (small DNA flow). Turkish speaking simply means someone converted. pic.twitter.com/MYvq281BHV Permalink 8:36 AM – 8 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Nietzsche’s Master-Slave morality in modern terms: Reputation is for slaves, Honor, Courage, & Integrity is for the Self-Owned. Permalink 1:54 PM – 7 Oct 2017

@nntaleb The main problem is vulnerability to reputational effects. Fragility. You can’t be a slave and avoid behaving like a slave.https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/916712530738900992   Permalink 10:44 AM – 7 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Someone writing the article didn’t get scaling. Sweden is small. Size is a dominant characteristic.https://twitter.com/pascalbouvier/status/916632044196724736   Permalink 4:54 AM – 7 Oct 2017

@mikeadsit Roundup kills more than weeds. Beneficial soil bacteria face a weed-killing threat from above | Cornell Chronicle http://news.cornell.edu/stories/2017/06/aristildeglyphosate   Permalink 6:12 PM – 6 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Please, this is only for US residents who follow me on Twitter. Where did you get the last book you’ve read? Permalink 5:25 PM – 6 Oct 2017

@nntaleb “Tings” I learned today: a- There is no money in glamor (W’s stake is 130 m pretax) b- You don’t have to be really rich to buy into politics pic.twitter.com/9wNWwr8EFN Permalink 5:05 PM – 6 Oct 2017

@nntaleb 3/3 The more people do “data” the less they understand its information. Permalink 3:22 PM – 6 Oct 2017

@nntaleb In other words, don’t cross a river because it is 4 feet deep ON AVERAGE. Gabish? #Antifragile Permalink 3:21 PM – 6 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Harvey W. was a master at virtue signaling. Pseudo-left: they endorse causes to feel virtuous.https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 3:09 PM – 6 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Another person who doesn’t understand convexity.https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/916418298186694656   Permalink 2:56 PM – 6 Oct 2017

@izag2010 @izag2010 Firearm incidents have thin tailed propability Distributions, Terrorism, Fat tailed you Imbeciles! @nntaleb Permalink 2:54 PM – 6 Oct 2017

@GuruAnaerobic Mark Sissons is right – being obsessed with Keto misses the point. As @nntaleb wud say, it’s an insult to variationhttps://www.marksdailyapple.com/where-i-part-ways-with-the-popular-keto-movement/   Permalink 5:18 AM – 6 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Did someone answer this idiot?https://twitter.com/ftmag/status/915833997145595904   Permalink 5:52 PM – 5 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/O3qSCTY8Vu Permalink 10:25 AM – 5 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Counter to Arabists BS vendors, there was in 4th C. Roman province called “Phoenicia” & there were “Phoenicians”. Libanius (Autobiography) pic.twitter.com/4Drb9552BR Permalink 8:04 AM – 4 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Yeah, yeah, yeahhttps://twitter.com/thespainreport/status/915527395528110080   Permalink 4:17 AM – 4 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Cirillo lektchuring my class on extreme value distributions pic.twitter.com/s1D5EXglUr Permalink 3:28 PM – 3 Oct 2017

@nntaleb OK,OK, new title again pic.twitter.com/kyRFZvRU5x Permalink 12:58 PM – 3 Oct 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK, So new subtitle pic.twitter.com/yAzfereSrz Permalink 6:15 AM – 3 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Finally, @DrCirillo came to spend a couple of weeks in New York. We plan on finishing the book and publishing by February. pic.twitter.com/cPLSrUZREd Permalink 5:52 AM – 3 Oct 2017

@nntaleb This economist gets it that *some* doctors do more harm than good. But doesn’t realize we shd be much better off w/o economists than with.https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/915182646480838657   Permalink 5:30 AM – 3 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Una lezzione Calabrese, la lezzione “na vota u mese” (once a month) pic.twitter.com/8BoYR9K6Vg Permalink 7:31 AM – 2 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Friends, can Anyone answer:What are the proportions if haplogroups/ subclades in Catalunya? Permalink 6:42 AM – 2 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Real World Risk Seminar: No thought police, no pol correctness, nothing is off-limits. (Nov 13-17) @financequant http://realworldrisk.com/pictorial_view_of_the_program_by_dhaval   Permalink 5:29 AM – 2 Oct 2017

@nntaleb What I learned today: Ottomans used the Western (AD) calendar (1899).https://twitter.com/OttomanArchive/status/914565507071823875   Permalink 4:45 AM – 2 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Lindy: Progress means change, but not too fast. pic.twitter.com/7vr5C6GkfG Permalink 3:24 PM – 1 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Catalunya. Permalink 2:22 PM – 1 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Never argue w/ pple on twitter. Expose people’s arguments for others to see. More generally, you argue with the audience, not the person.https://twitter.com/Mangan150/status/914542702938730497   Permalink 12:21 PM – 1 Oct 2017

@nntaleb A function in Mathematica to get the [a]-Mean (mean across all permutations); helps w/ Miurhead’s ineq & other uses of a generalized mean. pic.twitter.com/ClIJzpeU8V Permalink 12:05 PM – 1 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Where is Orwell? Replaced by monoculture-promoting, reputation-minded, pseudoleftist wusses. Wusses.https://twitter.com/WillMcHoebag/status/914452597205069824   Permalink 5:46 AM – 1 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Where is Orwell? Replaced by monoculture-promoting, reputation-minded, pseudoleftist wusses. Wusses. https://twitter.com/WillMcHoebag/status/914452597205069824   Permalink 5:46 AM – 1 Oct 2017

@PZalloua 2-Sunset over temples of Astarte (left) and Baal Amon (right). Cadiz pic.twitter.com/2q5SRur9yi Permalink 2:50 AM – 1 Oct 2017

@nntaleb This holds largely for EastMed and partly for WestMeds. Permalink 1:33 PM – 30 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Population Genetics du Jour: If Armenians/Georgians/Iranians(N)/Anatolians/Kurds look Mediterranean, it’s because Meds originate from there. Permalink 12:54 PM – 30 Sep 2017

@nntaleb In academia, there is no difference between academia & the real world. In the real world, there is. (inspired by Yogi Berra)https://twitter.com/DrTomFlynn/status/902647984000827392   Permalink 11:32 AM – 30 Sep 2017

@nntaleb “Dear Dr T, Someone sent me an article in which you wrote [some insult] abt me” Translation: “I googled my name & found your mentioning me” Permalink 11:29 AM – 30 Sep 2017

@nntaleb “Privatized” homeland security, if you want to see it that way.https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/914134920741695489   Permalink 9:20 AM – 30 Sep 2017

@nntaleb A new challenge. Initial from @erugli , @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/bs1cHjf5ZX Permalink 4:30 AM – 30 Sep 2017

@nntaleb The skin in the game (symmetry) Q is: Would you like your daughter to appear in Playboy? If so, then do the interview. Otherwise, shut up Permalink 3:15 AM – 30 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Partial list of interviewees… Two-faced “left” intellectuals using a vehicle demeaning to women for own self-promotion. pic.twitter.com/bcFVOMQDuW Permalink 11:43 AM – 29 Sep 2017

@maircomm And a former colleague, a Hungarian: “The problem with Nassim Taleb is not that he’s an —hole. Nassim Taleb is an —hole. The problem with Nassim Taleb is that he is right.” Permalink 7:13 AM – 29 Sep 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Kunihiko Chikaya’s Inequality https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/Kunny.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5PSfS17eHm”>  pic.twitter.com/5PSfS17eHm Permalink 7:08 AM – 29 Sep 2017

@nntaleb An “interview” in Playboy is the equivalent of putting a prayer room in the middle of a bordello, w/the excuse that it attracts worshippers. Permalink 5:14 AM – 29 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Genetic Literacy Project is a Monsanto mouthpiece meant to smear scientists who disagree. Should NEVER be relied upon. Gabish? Permalink 3:12 AM – 29 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Nice to wake up to such great news. Delenda Monsanto! Euro Parliament decide to bar Monsanto lobbyists https://www.ft.com/content/5c1c61e6-a457-11e7-b797-b61809486fe2   via @FT Permalink 2:47 AM – 29 Sep 2017

@DirkAntonvM If there is only one article you want to read this Fall, let it be this one. It explains so much of the turmoil around the world.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/913359606356877312   Permalink 2:41 AM – 29 Sep 2017

@AJA_Cortes People with muscular necks don’t get fucked with Permalink 3:53 PM – 28 Sep 2017

@nntaleb So, Mary Beard, with all this career bloviating in books you can’t tell the difference between DESCRIPTIVE & NORMATIVE? Permalink 2:48 PM – 28 Sep 2017

@SwaidanCeline Ohhhhh pleasseee: عُقْد: necklace. عِِقد: decade. عَقْد: contract. عَقَدَ: held. عَقَّدَ: complicated. عُقَدْ: knots.https://twitter.com/theweirdworld/status/913461743162134528   Permalink 1:15 PM – 28 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mary Beard ou are hinting that I stand AGAINST equality? You keep proving you are intellectualy DISHONEST, insecure, and a BS artist. Permalink 1:06 PM – 28 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Replace “religion police” in this NYT Op-Ed about what happened to @AkyolinEnglish by “thought police” & notice there is NO difference.https://twitter.com/nytopinion/status/913463407076106241   Permalink 12:58 PM – 28 Sep 2017

@nntaleb What “humble” brag? There is nothing humble about me and I do NOT hide it. Gabish? Permalink 12:37 PM – 28 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Was told it was the most impactful & most read interview on the planet. Many “serious” authors did it: Nabokov, Mailer, Moravia, Rand… Permalink 12:24 PM – 28 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Playboy. I can proudly say that the Playboy Interview is the first interview I ever declined, when I was invited in 2008. Permalink 11:50 AM – 28 Sep 2017

@sprenten Only about 5 people read this tweet and understand it was made to make you think and not to confirm a bias! Permalink 11:42 AM – 28 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Tax plan: if passed, will it be retro-effective for 2017 (as was Reagan’s)? Permalink 10:05 AM – 28 Sep 2017

@DeadLiftCapital just as de Tocqueville described pic.twitter.com/b4FpyKP1Bl Permalink 6:45 AM – 28 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Not just Byzantine, though. The DNA of the Koura, shows some Krusader genes. Mountains nearby: Armenian genes (Mardaitis) @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/upZIjvRhfA Permalink 6:41 AM – 28 Sep 2017

@nntaleb IYI: “He has mentioned quantum mechanics at least twice in the past 5 years in conversations that had nothing to do w/physics.” Chap 6 ,SITGhttps://twitter.com/dandolfa/status/913225599489118208   Permalink 6:33 AM – 28 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Those who have equal rights today are complaining much, much more than when they didn’t have them. Permalink 6:06 AM – 28 Sep 2017

@nntaleb The old technique is that if your target has thick skin/f*** you money, attack pple close to him.https://medium.com/incerto/the-skin-of-others-in-your-game-3f51d8ccc3fb   Permalink 5:52 AM – 28 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Dear friends, Someone anonymous I’ve blocked are targeting gents I interract w/ & harrass them. I suggest blocking & reporting to twitter. Permalink 5:25 AM – 28 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Only 5000 years gap between Syria and Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/leithfadel/status/772601014226653184   Permalink 4:13 AM – 28 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15  https://twitter.com/WestmonsterUK/status/913348073077792768   Permalink 4:07 AM – 28 Sep 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Here’s I put it up. Thank you https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/erugli.shtml   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/r3AW7zOkTc”>  pic.twitter.com/r3AW7zOkTc Permalink 7:04 PM – 27 Sep 2017

@HenricsonJacob Thrilled to be joining @nntaleb and friends for Real World Risk workshop in November. #MakeRiskRealAgain Permalink 12:20 PM – 27 Sep 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A simple inequality with exponents in two variables https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/InequalityWithExponents.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jD6UiPXZOB”>  pic.twitter.com/jD6UiPXZOB Permalink 9:51 AM – 27 Sep 2017

@nntaleb The Koura valley stayed off and on Byzantine for a while.https://twitter.com/hagiasophiatr/status/913038071532269568   Permalink 7:22 AM – 27 Sep 2017

@nntaleb A footnote on associated accusations of “sectarianism” pic.twitter.com/WO5mzI1tpi Permalink 6:22 AM – 27 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Final Devaluation of “Racism”: Arabs/Turks accuse Kurds of “racism” for wanting their own state Kurds accuse them of “racism” for opposing Permalink 5:41 AM – 27 Sep 2017

@JudicialWatch The FBI collaborated w/ the IRS in the IRS scandal. The IRS Commish should be removed from office. Learn more here: http://jwatch.us/vCwTo5   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/icV20zNueB”>  pic.twitter.com/icV20zNueB Permalink 2:45 PM – 26 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Isocrates: Treat other states the way you’d like to by treated by them. Silver Rule is the foundation of modern society. Apply to states. pic.twitter.com/Q66kGjJDg1 Permalink 11:58 AM – 26 Sep 2017

@nntaleb 1918: Woodrow Wilson’s doctrine of self determination. 2017: US/EU Position on Kurdistan driven by oil interests. Permalink 11:34 AM – 26 Sep 2017

@nntaleb The only way to undertand how something works is by figuring out how to break it.https://twitter.com/strifenjustice/status/912697416368967680   Permalink 11:29 AM – 26 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Politico story does not report that Monsanto ghostwrote Helmut Greim paper on glyphostate.https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/912694078088851456   Permalink 9:25 AM – 26 Sep 2017

Cowen, Thaler, Deadlift, SaudiBarbaria, “think tanks”, Salafism | Twitter

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@nntaleb 3825 years later, economists haven’t yet figured out what Babylonians did: debt has systemic effects (hence on others), self-harm doesn’t.https://twitter.com/tylercowen/status/826613009132969984   Permalink 3:14 PM – 2 Feb 2017

@jnyangena Something @nntaleb has been saying for years nowhttps://twitter.com/BrentBeshore/status/827237359074684928   Permalink 1:17 PM – 2 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Do IYI economists & social “scientists” realize they will soon be cut from taxpayer money? The pseudo-research $$ scam is bound to end. Permalink 9:59 AM – 2 Feb 2017

@nntaleb New York Museum of Mathematics, @MoMath1 Matthew Richey pic.twitter.com/rC0hWazww1 Permalink 4:15 PM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Outside your shit papers, in the real world, risk-takers work with thresholds to simplify life. @R_Thaler @JamesMarsh79 Permalink 9:53 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Rodrik, like cheap Starbucks, engages in cheap virtue signaling, at the expense of sophistry. Bullshit is free. @CliffordAsness @rodrikdani Permalink 6:20 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We’ve know Syria news were fake almost from the beginning. Why did it take that long? Herding/lack of courage by journos fearful to deviate.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/826582270777683968   Permalink 5:00 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb (cont) Last time I set foot in Starbucks they were selling something called “ethical water”; with millennials falling for that scam. Permalink 2:29 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nothing wrong in the classics in the elevation of your status. But you need to take risks for that, signal courage. @PrometheusAM Permalink 2:18 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Great Ed Thorpe’s memoir. @JamesMarsh79 alerted me that smokevendor @R_Thaler finds Kelly/Thorpe criterion a mistakehttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/foreword-to-ed-thorps-memoirs-a-man-for-all-markets-6beba78cd2b#.eo4b8yt9s   Permalink 2:17 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 4) “Bullshit vending” was present in the classics, as more politely “Smoke vending” “Vendere fumum” Compiled in Erasmus (Adagia, I, 3, 41 ) Permalink 2:06 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Blaming Starbucks for fake virtue signaling, hypocrisy, exploitation of the immigration ban, @kaveh_h I boycott Starbucks since GMO darkact Permalink 1:58 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) I am procrastinating w/ *Skin in the Game* as I can’t find *virtue signaling* in classics (#Lindy),nothing beyond hypocrisy. Is it new? Permalink 1:56 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@illacertus Just uploaded my animation of The Bed of Procrustes by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) – https://youtu.be/lRN_KT17mNo   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2z9AyjC8MJ”>  pic.twitter.com/2z9AyjC8MJ Permalink 10:35 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Results are lift specific. Deadlift 5max rep dropped from weaknening of wrist. Rest between unchanged (squat) and slighly down (press). Thx!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/825684555407511552   Permalink 9:26 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Voila @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/GQbASsQwII Permalink 4:51 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb It takes courage to stand up to Saudi Arabia, none to virtue signal here. There is no virtue without risktaking & sacrifice #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/826386249992830978   Permalink 3:41 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I boycott SaudiBarbaria. They should. @MrSeras @AlexJacksonKerr @Konstant_V Permalink 3:19 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Virtue signaling here and there! Pseudo left here, extreme right there. https://twitter.com/konstant_v/status/826251002592559109   Permalink 3:06 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@GreenRupertRead https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/29/barcelona-residents-protest-high-rents-fuelled-by-tourism?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other   – An encouraging development!: Barcelona marches against the harmfulness of tourism on the city. @g_kallis Pse RT Permalink 2:27 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The IYI pseudo-left is disgusting.https://twitter.com/rupasubramanya/status/823410948589416448   Permalink 1:11 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb We Christians have been made uncomfortable & not at home in the Levant; we feel at home with Western values & want to keep it as such. Permalink 11:15 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Mr Abdulla I came here running away from intolerant Salafis like you & separation of ch & state. No chasing me here.https://twitter.com/saloul/status/826143889161613312   Permalink 11:06 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3/People are not getting that it is under Obama that minorities fleeing Sunni persecution were not allowed !!! pic.twitter.com/pLcAooTXly Permalink 11:03 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Here is the answer to Mr Greene @bgreene: don’t use your “scientific” status to give policy advice about risk. pic.twitter.com/B0Cp7HfTCk Permalink 8:07 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Can someone answer the fellow abt comparing random variables? Thanks.https://twitter.com/bgreene/status/826080516256436224   Permalink 7:23 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Greene is CLUELESS abt risk/probblty.”Odds” are NOT past frequencies for fat tailed distributions ! Only thintailedhttps://twitter.com/bgreene/status/826066350619652098   Permalink 6:20 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A better link for the paper: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/elections.pdf   Permalink 4:53 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Finally, first draft of my paper on how to forecast an election: forecast includes more volatility than success pr.https://www.dropbox.com/s/wfhm4q3w3k964y2/elections1.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 4:31 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb No, retweets. I unfollowed those who retweeted this. @shootersix Permalink 3:42 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Alas, statistics w/o reasoning. P(hit by bus) < 10^-20 probability of quadrupling. Not terror. #FooledByRandomness !https://twitter.com/KimKardashian/status/825580660337283073   Permalink 3:39 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 1) Reasoning: if a Moroccan terrorist (hence Muslim) killed Muslim people in #QuebecCity, very high probability the victims are Shiites. Permalink 2:20 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb For Baal’s sake, note that I am against the ban for Iran, Iraq & Yemen, but REQUIRING restrictions for Salafis .Kapish? @mtsw @rodrikdani Permalink 10:35 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb And Salafism isn’t quite promoting the tolerant “diversity” that Mr Rodrik is looking for… @rodrikdani Permalink 10:30 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Had @rodrikdani made an effort to get the point instead of bullshitting: American value is not accepting assymmetric *intolerant* religion. Permalink 10:28 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Mr Rodrik, hope you understand that you are some BS-writing hack living on American charity. Not quite the American dream. @rodrikdani Permalink 9:32 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Asymmetric separation between church and state is leading to Halal public shools in France. @schmittpaula @zak_pullen Permalink 9:22 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A friend you lose was never a friend. @TheDefenderA Permalink 9:02 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@BBassem7 Christianity is under attack by ISIS & AlQaeda in the Middle East. This is no secret. This is a video of what ISIS did to churches in N Iraq pic.twitter.com/MpQshEct25 Permalink 9:01 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@schmittpaula @nntaleb Case in point:Somali taxi drivers in Minneapolis airport refusing to pick up passengers w alcohol, sending them to back of the line Permalink 8:36 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb For those still confused about Salafi Islam & the Popper-Godel principle, let me again invoke the minority rule.https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.iyxs6hpdm   Permalink 8:24 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I came as refugee from the Lebanese war, embraced American values,& vowed to defend them. I refuse immigrants who don’t embrace our values. Permalink 8:02 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Shiites are also victims. In Saudi Arabia they are treated worse than dhimmis. Permalink 7:23 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) Iran is the only Islamic country that is truly robust in its tolerance towards Christians and Jews. Permalink 7:21 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Those railing abt temp ban are silent abt dhimmification & extermination by Sunnis Salafis in Near & Middle-East.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/825721153142521858   Permalink 7:18 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@GreenRupertRead St Thomas Aquinas – ‘It is better that a blind horse is slow’. #PrecautionaryPrinciple pic.twitter.com/0K1Wz882VE Permalink 6:54 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Back to New York after ~4 weeks weightlifting hiatus, to let the body heal from injuries. What will happen to the maximum press/deadlift? Permalink 4:38 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Proper legal mechanism is to de-label Salafism as religion, treat it like a political party (say Nazis) then ban!https://medium.com/@nntaleb/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e#.8olh056n6   Permalink 12:43 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Bingo! It is fallacious to treat Salafis as religion or race, but as a violent viciously intolerant political party.https://twitter.com/kringelikrok/status/825600544559362048   Permalink 11:25 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Just as “political science” doesn’t have any science, “think tanks” are for people who don’t and can’t think. Permalink 3:21 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Salafism is CRIMINAL @singhponline @Medium Permalink 2:13 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A potent border test for Salafis: crack a joke and check their sense of humor. Salafis & literalists can’t get humor.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/825430237643149315   Permalink 1:05 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb We should ban indiv. Salafascists from entering U.S., not countries, not Yemenis & Shiite Iranians. (Popper-Godel)https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.moo05xksc   Permalink 11:47 AM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb No-nonsense Book on Fat Tails with @DrCirillo, looking increasingly like Dynamic Hedging in style. pic.twitter.com/SZFzKNiP8C Permalink 11:13 AM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Probability du Jour: Why correlation always finite and bounded in (-1, 1), when covariances are undefined. (final) pic.twitter.com/fgj3itJzEB Permalink 11:16 PM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb While Trump’s”enemies take him literally not seriously & friends seriously not literally”, the wise looks at his acts & acts only. No words. Permalink 6:40 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Actually title is “Extreme Events and How to Live with Them” Permalink 6:26 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb They aren’t aware that I will lecture on something related to the Ancient Mediterranean without anyone noticing.https://twitter.com/DarwinLectures/status/824985891840151552   Permalink 6:24 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Pedagogical slides explaining Fat Tails for my talk in Cambridge questa sera: Why under fat tails single events>sum pic.twitter.com/oXNzOUp9m6 Permalink 3:05 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Cambridge pic.twitter.com/UasiBmiIlK Permalink 11:26 PM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb From discussion w/ @DrCirillo abt the mystery of why correlation exists but not covariance for very Fat Tailed dist pic.twitter.com/rz6cp0UDUc Permalink 10:45 PM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The problem with demonizing people instead of criticizing them is that truth eventually comes out in full force & the devil becomes a saint.https://twitter.com/daniellmcadams/status/824769366046732288   Permalink 10:24 PM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Bravo! There has never been a crowd that creates as much harm thinking they are doing good as pple in US State Dept.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/824655496854564864   Permalink 9:05 AM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb You cannot do statistics without logic. Otherwise you become a data fraud, or, worse, an economist.https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/824328271814868992   Permalink 3:07 AM – 26 Jan 2017

Syria, Shias, Monsanto, Putin, Obama, Arab Bullshit, Thaler |Twitter

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@nntaleb 2/ Sharmine Narwani @snarwani has done some work on Syria. Hama casualties <5% of what was reported. More soonhttps://mideastshuffle.com/2013/02/22/the-dirty-numbers-game-in-syria/   Permalink 1:58 PM – 22 Nov 2016

@RiskMinds Watch @nntaleb live on 7th Dec for FREE! “Your grandmother’s intuitions abt #tailrisk is right”. Register here http://spr.ly/60118GLAV   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mGPrXkjgda”>  pic.twitter.com/mGPrXkjgda Permalink 12:00 PM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Trust none of what you hear, half of what you read, most of what you see.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd#.s5ge5ilqw   Permalink 6:58 AM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Levantine Philology du Jour: Possi cenam stabis aut passus mille meabis => تغدا و تمدا ، تعشا و تمشا Permalink 4:57 AM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I just published “Syria and the Statistics of War”https://medium.com/p/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd   Permalink 4:15 AM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 4) Since Obama took office # of Christians in Syria/Mesopotamia down by 60-80%. Many still speak the lang of Christ, ethnically cleansed. Permalink 3:26 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb For those who still don’t know that Pinker’s theory on drop in violence is BS. https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say   @BlueAnt2014 Permalink 3:10 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Cognitive biases are psycholobullshit, unless mentioned in ancient lit #lindyeffect @CAM_SMlTH @Alex_Walshy @seanmcarroll @ValaAfshar Permalink 2:45 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb It is called fooled by randomness. This is *exactly* mistaking probability for certainty. @Alex_Walshy @seanmcarroll @ValaAfshar Permalink 2:35 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Shias share with (Orthodox) Christians the notion of self sacrifice in pilgrimage. #skininthegame no cheap signalinghttps://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/800772465907666944   Permalink 11:38 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I can vouch: Monsanto tried to make life miserable but they hired PR imbeciles who didn’t know I was independent.https://twitter.com/food_democracy/status/800741851456098304   Permalink 8:46 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2021 @filipeteles Permalink 6:12 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb You will never convince someone that he is wrong. Survival does. Prologue of #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/Ouu4BFV585 Permalink 5:59 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nassim ‘Black Swan’ Taleb Sums Up Obama’s Legacy In 3 Painfully “Real” Tweets | Zero Hedgehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-20/nassim-black-swan-taleb-sums-obamas-legacy-3-painfully-real-tweets   Permalink 3:41 PM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Saif leave that poor Thaler boy to his mourning. He won’t be able to control others for a while, may this lifetime. @saifedean @R_Thaler Permalink 10:46 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Well, I don’t trust Syria numbers, particularly after this story of the “hospitals” in E. Aleppo. pic.twitter.com/y7SG9wlNYy Permalink 8:54 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The same imbeciles who calculated scientifically that Trump had <2-10% chance chance of winning think GMOs are safe. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 8:16 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Spending additional 1 T on infrastructure may get us something other than novacaine to show for it. Obama spent it on salaries @MudsharkOX Permalink 4:01 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 3) Don’t fughet Obama is leaving us a Ponzi scheme, added ~8 trillions in debt with rates at 0. If they rise, costs of deficit explode… Permalink 3:32 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Idiotic (IYI) journos are trying to make us believe Putin is fighting Mother Theresa in Syria, not the AlQaeda of Sept 11. @BenteScheller Permalink 3:28 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The conflation of science and scientism.https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/800296599314370560   Permalink 3:16 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) (Cont) But in the end what Obama did that is unforgivable is increasing centralization in a complex system. Permalink 3:50 PM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Obama: Protected banksters (largest bonus pool in 2010) “Helped” Libya Served AlQaeda/SaudiBarbaria(Syria & Yemen)https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/800104636594192384   Permalink 3:33 PM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb For anyone who needs to know. @charles_lister is a paid Salafi apologist/propagandist at @MiddleEastInst and AlQaeda promoter.https://twitter.com/kenanrahmani/status/799338345948188672   Permalink 11:50 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Libertarianism and Julian the Apostate. pic.twitter.com/HV8yVWdzPl Permalink 10:54 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The only way to understand Aleppo is to call someone in North Syria. All the rest is suspicious Salafi propaganda.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/799883376937340929   Permalink 8:31 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb No, it is not “racist” to resist intolerant minorities, no, no, no!https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.7fh4kzqs1   Permalink 7:27 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb .@ashuduttmarkets Fucking idiot, why don’t you unfollow and find someone else who wants your instruction on what to write about? Permalink 6:55 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Tragedy of Syrian Christians: promoted Arabism to secularize away from Islam, instead of Greco-Roman-Aramaic past. pic.twitter.com/holXWYCbzj Permalink 6:47 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb How Fat Tony got rich betting against charlatans like @JustinWolfers (Green Lumber Fallacy chapter in #Antifragile) pic.twitter.com/gNAOVsDREI Permalink 5:46 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Funny pple don’t realize @loveconcursall “Lara Stuart-Müller” frm Zurich is in fact a fat male bearded ISIS operative @ThePorcie @wootwoo3 Permalink 6:08 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb .@loveconcursall Please explain the “lie” in a historical fact. They don’t have someone smarter to represent the Syrian opposition? Permalink 3:40 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Pple in the BS-vending business BS even more when it becomes too obvious they’re in the BS business #noskininthegamehttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/799712650674388993   Permalink 3:18 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The Russians rang the bells of the Mar Georgios Greek Orthodox Cathedral. People remember. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_George_Greek_Orthodox_Cathedral  https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/799744116586348545   Permalink 2:50 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb First time church bells were heard in Beirut under Ottomans was in 1773 when the Russian fleet came. To understand Putin in Syria & support. Permalink 2:40 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Medawar (round in Levantine) seems to come from Aramaic (Arabic: mustadir). @zaliin Permalink 2:14 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I can’t wear a cross in Saudi Arabia. Apostates are executed. I am not going to cry for you yet. @Quran_Chart @asadabukhalil Permalink 1:42 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb “Bigotry” against Arab states when they treat non-Sunnis like deviants? This is called “Arab Bullshit” @tomazy_m @leithfadel @asadabukhalil Permalink 1:20 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb .@sterndavidi 2000 out of 1.3 million Moroccan Jews! Permalink 1:19 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb US State dept estimate of Jews in Iran is ~ 20-25K @EliCash22 @asadabukhalil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Jews   Permalink 1:09 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb This is true. Note Iran still has 25,000 Jews. Arab countries have practically none left.https://twitter.com/asadabukhalil/status/799714208690491392   Permalink 1:05 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Presenting Medical summary paper on Antifragility Nov 28 at the U of Pennsylvania School of Medicine. Paper: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/medicine.pdf   Permalink 11:31 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Cannot hide my Schadenfreude watching @R_Thaler panic attacks -& nudgers who banked on Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison to manipulate citizens.https://twitter.com/r_thaler/status/799405867691077632   Permalink 9:19 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb UK universities ban newspapers on campus,yet allow Salafi propaganda. Anyone ag. Salafis becomes “Islamophobe”. Boycott UK universities? Permalink 5:04 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb x=y != z in the right side corridor @CutTheKnotMath @mikeandallie pic.twitter.com/pZBOhqZrcG Permalink 2:45 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After last nomination I feel that my dream of seeing Saudi/Qatari royals in Guantanamo getting close…All my betes noires are falling now! Permalink 6:25 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du jour: Kfar (kafr) and Dar (dor) relate to “round”. Dar also village/house. Dar & Medawar => same root. pic.twitter.com/IqidB3sUV7 Permalink 5:56 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@mikeandallie @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb was able to print the shape and will use it for a project with my kids tonight. Thanks for sharing your work. pic.twitter.com/uNip1bykoQ Permalink 5:05 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb A clear explanation of my problem with 538 probabilities.https://hedgefundsmarts.wordpress.com/2016/11/17/smoke-gets-in-your-eyes-clinton-landslide-and-other-pipe-dreams/   Permalink 2:54 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb John Bolton needs to be put in a psychiatric asylum. The very problem of Iran w/West is a regime change (Mosadegh).https://twitter.com/jessicaschulb/status/799380410362904576   Permalink 2:51 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb One leg of the octopus @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/tcT67IMYIq Permalink 12:42 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After the fact some people think they got it.https://twitter.com/ejnbo/status/799346863065341952   Permalink 12:28 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb A better perspective on a Mandelbrotian Octopus @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/ytIYwVxGL9 Permalink 10:38 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The first idiot to fire from the State Department. But from my experience replacing all the staff is necessary.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/799193394761400320   Permalink 10:06 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb You get a beautiful Mandelbrotian mathematical object at the “nugget”, worth exploring. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/mNceojHgDK Permalink 9:14 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The IYI Class slowing realizing that everything they know turned out to be fiction, as in Candid Camera. pic.twitter.com/TaoffZ7qsi Permalink 4:44 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@byzantinepower The more you learn about Byzantium the more you learn how acutely the Syriac genius inflected its character. The West lost that spark. Permalink 4:24 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 8 days after about everything the IYI class (forecasters, journos, pol “scientists”, Pinker) knows fell apart; starting to realize what… Permalink 4:23 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Donaldo considering Nikki Haley, an Indian Sikh woman is a stroke of genius! @realDonaldTrump Permalink 3:21 PM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The saying “silence is gold” applies only to fools. Permalink 1:29 PM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Gibbon on Syrian (Greeks) fashion-obsessions & “contempt for female modesty”. Fashion week in Laodicea(Latakia) now! pic.twitter.com/cwWiF7BMmG Permalink 12:58 PM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Sweet vindication: publisher said sales of electronics books down 17-30% pending on genre vs real books. #lindyeffect at work Permalink 11:37 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@RandPaul “I can’t support anybody to be our secretary of state who didn’t learn the lesson of the Iraq War,”http://reason.com/blog/2016/11/15/interview-with-rand-paul-i-cant-support   Permalink 6:08 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb How to get rid of intruders who bug you for selfies. pic.twitter.com/MbHVml3fwl Permalink 5:46 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) Turned out that @yaneerbaryam has used a version of Simpson’s Paradox to debunk math of the Selfish Gene by entertainer @RichardDawkins Permalink 4:33 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The same people who complain that we only had 2 “bad” choices in election also complained abt my ethics of voting for 3rd party. #IYI Permalink 4:04 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After Pinker gets elementary statistical significance (if),we’ll teach him Simpson’s Paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox  https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/798351010544566272   Permalink 2:33 PM – 15 Nov 2016

@RomKoziol @nntaleb You reach a point when you have had enough of the BS, the hype, the gurus, the new age stuff, etc. and you say it like it is. Permalink 2:25 PM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Doesn’t look good. @TimHarford @obradovits1 Permalink 11:27 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Paula, @schmittpaula Nice surprise to get this in my feed. I will order them immediately! Permalink 7:56 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Did you read Antifragile, Yes/No? @TimHarford @obradovits1 Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Also a lot of people in NY who voted Johnson would have voted Trump. @neilchriss Permalink 5:57 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After that, sign the petition to allow S. Pinker’s to wave statistical significance in work on drop in violence.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/798351010544566272   Permalink 5:50 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Ask @TimHarford. In my copy, he did not acknowledge anything. @malikbarak Permalink 5:34 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Well… as it turned out I’ve taken a look at the former. @limawort @PoliticsProse @TimHarford @FearNoTrieb Permalink 5:22 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Hence the “populist” dislike of IYI is ingrained is about all languages. @MarcosCarreira @stan_yurin Permalink 5:21 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Any idea of diff betw “The Power of Disorder to Transform our Lives”& “Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder”?https://twitter.com/PoliticsProse/status/798189353415491585   Permalink 5:18 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Friends, looking for info on how many read an Op-Ed in NYT if total circulation is, say 1mil. 90k? What’s typical hits of OpE on Bloomberg? Permalink 4:32 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb To whoever translated this: “fatphobia” is fear of dietary fat, not “gordofobia” (overweight)! #traduttoretradittorehttps://twitter.com/griverom/status/798479605271318528   Permalink 3:13 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 3) This, given the presumption Aristotle was translated into Arabic not from the Greek, but from the Aramaic-Syriac. [Evidence for Galen] Permalink 2:59 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) Is Levantine is the only language in which the term “philosopher” is derogatory? To bullshit (produce non solid verbiage) = “tfalsaf” Permalink 2:56 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du Jour: Discovered that “Intellectual Yet Idiot” translates into Levantine as… “philosopher” (faylasouf!)https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.dpt9b52xo   Permalink 2:54 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The Intellctual Yet Idiot (IYI) article is spreading into the languages IYIs speak.http://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/aktuell/nassim-nicholas-taleb-die-wohlwissenden-ld.128349   Permalink 2:44 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I am not often angry (saliency), but why WTF do readers expect authors to write motivational messages on twitter?https://twitter.com/WriteWthCourage/status/798260310285185024   Permalink 2:51 PM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The best so far! @robert_wehttps://twitter.com/robert_we/status/798258175946457093   Permalink 12:31 PM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 4- The Lesson of 2016 is that it took social media (not a “free” press) to take universal suffrage to its natural conclusion. Permalink 9:31 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Let’s model a random Congress composed of citizens. It shd best represent the population by LLN. See Pluchino etal. @normonics @yaneerbaryam Permalink 8:17 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb In Complex Systems Terms: Populism: bottom-up spontaneous-order participation NonPopulism “democracy”: hierarchical & constrained choices Permalink 7:58 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Finally converging to becoming the author of a single book: the INCERTO is out tomorrow.https://www.amazon.com/dp/0399590455/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_x_qiCkybRNATJZ8   Permalink 6:13 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb When you risk other people’s lives for “ideas” w/o paying the price & w/o being apologetic, #skininthegame. Kapish? @geor97 @BillKristol Permalink 6:02 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I hope this scum @BillKristol is forced to settle in Iraq, & risks beheading by ISIS. Scum, scum, scum.https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/798153276092981248   Permalink 5:46 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Populism: democratic participation by the uneducated population when conflicts w/that of the miseducated one. Works?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/797964184956891136   Permalink 2:29 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Thank you @kilkenomics !!!https://twitter.com/mdvex/status/798076026622451712   Permalink 12:39 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Fucking idiot I said “rigorous” not political science. @dandrezner Permalink 5:04 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I am still looking for someone to give a rigorous explanation/explanation of difference between populism & democracy. Nothing yet. Permalink 4:47 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Graphical view of the problem: >1 except in a tiny nugget around {0,0,0} @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/ULkgMsX61Z Permalink 3:48 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Graphical view of the problem: >1 except in a tiny nugget around {0,0,0} @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/ULkgMsX61Z Permalink 3:48 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb No idiot the NYT gave legitimacy to the Iraq incasion @John_F_Donnelly @kilkenomics Permalink 1:41 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Let us not forget that the NYT was largely responsible for the Iraq mess. Includes pundits like Thomas Friedmam @kilkenomics Permalink 1:16 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@kilkenomics “A vote for #Brexit is a vote for complex systems” – @nntaleb #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com/BoPIfGLR8r Permalink 6:03 AM – 13 Nov 2016

@kilkenomics “A vote for #Brexit is a vote for complex systems” – @nntaleb #kilkenomics pic.twitter.com/BoPIfGLR8r Permalink 6:03 AM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Rituals are the music of life. Permalink 1:43 PM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I told Politico to get lost for that “Black Swan” article. @SamWahlenpic.twitter.com/yUUniDRn0y Permalink 10:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I told Politico to get lost for that “Black Swan” article. @SamWahlen pic.twitter.com/yUUniDRn0y Permalink 10:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The IYI didn’t get that censoring pple w/unfair tags “racist”,”sexist”,”schlongist” doesn’t work unless they also censor in the voting booth Permalink 8:42 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Reaction of @FiveThirtyEight same as cowardly traders who unexpectedly blow up, blame mkts, God, Mars… Accept bad probabilistic reasoning! Permalink 8:27 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Errors of @FiveThirtyEight et al. in “UPDATING” probabilities that shd be around .5/ noise https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/binary%20forecasting%20538.nb.pdf   pic.twitter.com/jcZccHsr63 Permalink 8:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Indeed Salibi is largely unreliable; Syria’s Islamization was very slow from minority rule. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.wrrhkreke  https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/797444295053680640   Permalink 6:57 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Deirdre Mc and Rory S discussing skin in the game. How Hillary shd be ambassador to Lybia.https://twitter.com/cravenpartners/status/797414016352194560   Permalink 5:15 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@CarolineKirrane .@rorysutherland delighted with his birthday cake! He got a rousing rendition of happy birthday from the crowd here at #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com/hNFiWMlWUo Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@CarolineKirrane .@rorysutherland delighted with his birthday cake! He got a rousing rendition of happy birthday from the crowd here at #kilkenomics pic.twitter.com/hNFiWMlWUo Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@ThomBarry Nassim. Interesting that rulers in the past usually went into battle. A Roman emperor was captured and turned into a stool! #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com/4363uss8k1 Permalink 4:42 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@kilkenomics Deirdre @PrudentiaMag shares that she was born ‘Donald’ which, apparently in Irish means ‘world leader’. (Don’t tell Trump!)pic.twitter.com/zFzOrq217X Permalink 4:27 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb My point was that it was 50% @EconomicTimes Permalink 4:49 PM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Highly exaggerated Who called it right for Donald Trump? A professor, a filmmaker & Nassim Nicholas Talebhttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/who-called-it-right-for-donald-trump-a-professor-a-filmmaker-and-nassim-nicholas-taleb/articleshow/55379214.cms   Permalink 2:36 PM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The ricochet from demonizing Trump by Hillarists & idiotic media: all he has to do now is be half the monster they portrayed. #Antifragile Permalink 2:34 PM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The verdict is that @Charles_Lister from @MiddleEastInst should be tagged as a paid promoter of Jihadi terrorism. On his employer… later Permalink 6:09 AM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Excellent term, “sciolus”, ancien equivalent to “scientism”. Also philosophaster, bullshit artist, or just “Pinker”.https://twitter.com/atomasevic/status/797028412695203840   Permalink 3:04 AM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Why did Obama turn on AlQaeda now? Because Hillary is out of the way? Very strange.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/796850098839941120   Permalink 5:24 PM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb It is hard to find a plumber, baker, janitor, dentist, surgeon who is an impostor. Nate Silver, St. Pinker, Sam Harris are total impostors.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/796780160162942976   Permalink 12:38 PM – 10 Nov 2016

@GhassanDahhan The guy on the left was just added on the US list of designated terrorists. The guy on the right was just awarded the Press Freedom Award.pic.twitter.com/h3bUU2HgMU Permalink 11:28 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I can’t stand impostors. Permalink 10:22 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb “Intellectual” America: @sapinker who doesn’t know mean!= sample mean now arbiter of… probabilitistic reasoning!pic.twitter.com/Uc59XoXqs0 Permalink 9:25 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@Sartor1836 A Nobel Laureate* in Economics, ladies and gentlemen. cc: @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/hackcelerity/status/796501638601121792   Permalink 9:18 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After his reaction to my earlier criticism it is my opinion @NateSilver538 should leave the business.https://twitter.com/aigo3000/status/796738157802819584   Permalink 7:45 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb What is alarming isn’t that they were wrong but that these idiots underestimated their error rate. Similar to p-val https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2834266  https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/796700880246571012   Permalink 5:23 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Vienna @nutanixpic.twitter.com/pCngG5w5p8 Permalink 5:03 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Anyone taking conditional market forecasts frm someone (@justinwolfers) paid by charitable contributions has a pbm!https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/796394861633110016   Permalink 11:52 PM – 9 Nov 2016

The Irrationality of Irrationality: The Paradox of Popular Psychology | Guest Blog, Scientific American Blog Network

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Only this bit of NNT, but lots of Khaneman, Tversky, Thaler etc. as well, in this excellent article.

It’s natural for us to reduce the complexity of our rationality into convenient bite-sized ideas. As the trader turned epistemologist Nassim Taleb says: “We humans, facing limits of knowledge, and things we do not observe, the unseen and the unknown, resolve the tension by squeezing life and the world into crisp commoditized ideas.” But readers of popular psychology books on rationality must recognize that there’s a lot they don’t know, and they must be beware of how seductive stories are. The popular literature on cognitive biases is enlightening, but let’s be irrational about irrationality; exposure to X is not knowledge and control of X. Reading about cognitive biases, after all, does not free anybody from their nasty epistemological pitfalls.

via The Irrationality of Irrationality: The Paradox of Popular Psychology | Guest Blog, Scientific American Blog Network.