Tag Archives: Thaler

Manhattan, Ioannidis, NUCLEAR, Sunstein, FRAUD!!!!!, Thaler, Omar Sharif, Tetlock, Pinker, IQ, Playboy, BOOK PUBLISHING, Hagia Sophia | Twitter

Published on Jul 27, 2020
Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about the pandemic with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Topics discussed include how to handle the rest of this pandemic and the next one, the power of the mask, geronticide, and soul in the game.
For transcript and links related to today’s episode: https://www.econtalk.org/nassim-nicholas-taleb-on-the-pandemic/

The Masks Masquerade

Lebanon: from Ponzi to Antifragility

Face Masks May be Necessary and Sufficient to Stop Covid-19
An entrepreneur’s perspective on Nassim Taleb’s conclusions about face masks

Podcast Notes: The Pandemic, Power of Masks, Levels of Risk and More | Nassim Nicholas Taleb on EconTalk

How you will go bust on a favorable bet. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp)
Published on Feb 18, 2020
We explain the Kelly criterion and illustrate why “risk aversion” in Behavioral Finance is Micky Mouse(™) Science.

TLDR: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Pandemic A summary of the July 27, 2020 episode of EconTalk.

On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables (pdf)

@nntaleb Fireworks or ammunitions from the initial sparks. Stop the conspiracy theories, for Baal’s sake. No plane. Permalink 2020-08-04 16:38:01

@nntaleb Manhattan is dead & unflaneurable. Astoria Queens is more flaneurable: less pretentious & has much better Greek food, 30% blue collar customers instead of constipated book executives & philistines who read Harari. Even flaneuring can adapt well. Permalink 2020-08-04 14:33:56

@nntaleb Nikos Phililogos Permalink 2020-08-04 14:21:32

@nntaleb Scribe Permalink 2020-08-04 14:20:21

@nntaleb “Arabic”? WTF? Permalink 2020-08-04 14:19:29

@nntaleb Nobody noticed it is the Saint Petersburgh problem? Power law, if uncapped, with infinite mean. There is a Feller theorem about time to cross the origin following a Cauchy Permalink 2020-08-04 13:56:33

@nntaleb Corrected Permalink 2020-08-04 13:29:12

@nntaleb You can easily copy one line, no? Permalink 2020-08-04 13:27:53

@nntaleb Typo: m=250/2 Permalink 2020-08-04 13:27:37

@nntaleb And if you cheat (“verify”) by using Monte Carlo you get the same. Permalink 2020-08-04 13:25:29

@nntaleb My solution: 8.3 Permalink 2020-08-04 13:23:16

@nntaleb Not “Greek” olive oil. Lebanese olive oil from the Koura valley, so only ½ Greek. Permalink 2020-08-04 13:03:21

@nntaleb Not quite, my friend. Permalink 2020-08-03 22:27:22

@nntaleb Ok, Ok, Quiz What is the expected longest run generated by a random 250 coin tosses. A run is defined as n heads or n tails. Permalink 2020-08-03 22:24:14

@nntaleb Actually, no. People mistake length of runs for average of runs. Permalink 2020-08-03 19:25:44

@nntaleb Thanks Zhuo. Visibly your hand one does not have long runs. Permalink 2020-08-03 19:03:08

@nntaleb Using a Markov chain to estimate the expected number of runs. The number of runs of 7 must bet ~2 Permalink 2020-08-03 18:59:00

@nntaleb Why don’t you go give advice to someone else? Permalink 2020-08-03 14:17:33

@nntaleb III A wise decision is one that is sound both prospectively and retrospectively, in both foresight and hindsight. Our best definition of #Precaution Permalink 2020-08-03 13:52:37

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-03 13:32:00

@nntaleb Our debate with Ioannidis,II Plus why “forecasting” and “evidence based” are both unscientific and unwise under pandemics. Thanks to @pierrepinson @spyrosmakrid https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-03 13:12:24

@nntaleb HOW TO HANDLE A PANDEMIC Our debate with John Ioannidis. Plus why naive single point “forecasting” and “evidence based” methods are both unscientific and unwise under pandemics. Thanks to @pierrepinson @spyrosmakrid https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-03 13:12:24

@nntaleb You should detect by eyeballing. Permalink 2020-08-03 10:20:31

@nntaleb פה بالعبراني Permalink 2020-08-03 02:30:13

@nntaleb How many hours for $300? Permalink 2020-08-02 23:59:43

@nntaleb This is not quite a PL. Zifplots are insufficient. You need EVT to prove it. Would love to replicate. Permalink 2020-08-02 20:58:51

@nntaleb BM did not like this http://www.chialvo.net/Curso/UBACurso/DIA3/Papers/SOC1.pdf Permalink 2020-08-02 20:53:38

@nntaleb The sandpile story is controversial & supposedly Bak did not have a proof… Permalink 2020-08-02 19:57:42

@nntaleb Blocked the imbecile. He is just a photographer. Permalink 2020-08-02 19:13:37

@nntaleb I have an inside story of Mandelbrot on Per Bak Permalink 2020-08-02 18:44:27

@nntaleb SYSTEMIC RISK: non-diversifiable. You can in principle break-up into n reactors to get the needed risk diversification/prevent Chernobyl from being too large. Permalink 2020-08-02 18:13:10

@nntaleb Systemic = 1 block. Nuclear is in a diff category (non subexponential) Permalink 2020-08-02 16:57:52

@nntaleb In Principia Politica, there is a rule: No institution without an expiration date. Permalink 2020-08-02 15:45:37

@nntaleb Voshart you imbecile this is how you get coloring, by comparison. An confirmed by genetics: Lybians looked no different from other Mediterraneans. You are an imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-02 15:42:59

@nntaleb He seems clueless about genetics. He is just a photographer using cultural notions. Many fail to get that Southern Mediterraneans are Western Eurasians (the Europe/Africa distinction is not accurate). Permalink 2020-08-02 15:39:28

@nntaleb Voshart, are you a geneticist? Permalink 2020-08-02 15:38:04

@nntaleb Went away recently Permalink 2020-08-02 13:36:59

@nntaleb Aspetta mi, vengo subito prima che la lasagna si raffreddi Permalink 2020-08-02 13:32:06

@nntaleb I will make it very simple for you: I am picking what method I like not the one you like and you can go fuck off. Simple enough? Permalink 2020-08-02 13:28:29

@nntaleb Dove? Permalink 2020-08-02 13:20:27

@nntaleb I am not saying NUCLEAR is not dangerous. It is in a different class of risk. Permalink 2020-08-02 12:15:35

@nntaleb I am not saying it is not dangerous. Just a different class of risk. Permalink 2020-08-02 12:15:05

@nntaleb NUCLEAR I NEVER said that nuclear energy was safe. I said that it does not fall under the Precautionary Principle as there is ~no systemic risk. Nuclear accidents are additive not multiplicative (unlike GMOs & viruses). The risk (for small reactors) remains local not systemic. Permalink 2020-08-02 11:27:10

@nntaleb Then why education? Now shd I get pro or Business? Permalink 2020-08-02 01:40:26

@nntaleb Hi there Where did you get it from? Permalink 2020-08-02 01:28:24

@nntaleb Learning to cook from fresh dough. Mystery: Why did Sicily discontinue growing sumac? Permalink 2020-08-01 21:09:43

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuckoff and find yourself a hobby with “utility” before you lecture us? Permalink 2020-08-01 20:28:39

@nntaleb My shoulder bans me from deadlifting… Permalink 2020-08-01 19:16:26

@nntaleb Thanks! What’s best of the 4 options? Pro or Business? Permalink 2020-08-01 19:15:56

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-01 19:12:46

@nntaleb Can you do these rooms in business? Permalink 2020-08-01 19:04:54

@nntaleb Charlie can students spontaneously create rooms? Permalink 2020-08-01 14:15:45

@nntaleb Mistake. This is NOT the inquisition. There were trials and sentences were delivered by a (lay) court. This is more like the period of terror during the French Revolution. Soon education will be ONLY delivered by special apolitical institutions like coding camps. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:51:02

@nntaleb We don’t care about costs. We need to be able to create breakout rooms. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:29:14

@nntaleb BS Permalink 2020-08-01 11:22:23

@nntaleb 80-100 Permalink 2020-08-01 11:20:05

@nntaleb I blame the NYT first. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:19:00

@nntaleb Please do not involve geopolitics, China-US or some conspiracy in a software discussion. The question is precise Zoom for Business of for Education. Do not compare to other methods. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:15:39

@nntaleb This is the Inquisition Permalink 2020-08-01 11:10:51

@nntaleb But a university affiliation is becoming a liability. All downside, no upside. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:08:22

@nntaleb Friends, for #RWRI 14, do you prefer Zoom for Business or Zoom for Education? Thanks Permalink 2020-08-01 10:45:33

@nntaleb No comment for now. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:28:39

@nntaleb That’s another matter. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:24:45

@nntaleb Fuck off Permalink 2020-08-01 02:18:08

@nntaleb Without verification… Anyone getting anywhere close to a US university is a moron. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:14:31

@nntaleb Ovadiah Permalink 2020-07-31 18:21:00

@nntaleb Hi Scott You are missing the CENTRAL point: 1) is fragile what does not like volatility everything concave is fragile And reverse: antifragile = convex between a and b. Permalink 2020-07-31 15:42:14

@nntaleb 5) METASTATIC BUREAUCRACIES If you want an illustration, here is one. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:55:15

@nntaleb 4) CREDENTIALIZATION And note how Tedros mentions Harvard to credentialize Sunstein, which wipes out his defects and ignorance of probability. https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1288951939334574080?s=20 Repeat after me: Delenda WHO est. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:11:30

@nntaleb Nassim, he is a professor in a business school. Intellectual fraud is for them business as usual. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:01:04

@nntaleb 3) The Collection of bureaucrats *who meet* for a living and failed to get the risks of the pandemic early on when WE warned, costs us TRILLIONS. Now what do they do? They ADD more bureaucrats like that fraud Sunstein. Institutions learn via bankruptcy. WHO must be DEFUNDED. Permalink 2020-07-31 13:49:22

@nntaleb 2) Do not forget that @CassSunstein made it irrational to worry about the risks of the pandemic in February! WHO must be closed. Permalink 2020-07-31 13:17:56

@nntaleb FRAUD!!!!! If there is a reason to shut down the WHO, here it is. Cass Sunstein is the poster child of pseudo-empiricism. He failed to get pandemics early on and missed on the difference between additive & multiplicative risks. FRAUD! Permalink 2020-07-31 13:15:18

@nntaleb No to the Bisri Dam project. It is economically a scam, and environmentally a DISASTER. Sign the Petition! Permalink 2020-07-31 12:52:38

@nntaleb You can return it to them and order here Permalink 2020-07-31 12:01:14

@nntaleb Can you return it and reorder from this? Permalink 2020-07-31 12:00:50

@nntaleb Where did you get yours? Permalink 2020-07-31 11:59:22

@nntaleb Here Permalink 2020-07-31 11:50:54

@nntaleb Yes, I was wondering. My SP02 is 98 when active, 94 when inactive and I thought there was a problem but realized there was none as the problem is the other way around. Permalink 2020-07-31 11:32:05

@nntaleb Hi, Who did you buy it from? We stopped the Book Depository. Permalink 2020-07-31 11:29:02

@nntaleb Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility. The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2020-07-31 11:23:40

@nntaleb Levantine ethics… Permalink 2020-07-30 23:01:08

@nntaleb Fucking moron what does my argument have anything to do with how conservatives behave? Permalink 2020-07-30 21:47:26

@nntaleb On citation rings Permalink 2020-07-30 21:31:44

@nntaleb Yes, I am a staunch advocate of masks (even when it was unpopular). But anyone gloating on the web about the death of Herman Cain is: + shabby + unprincipled + sordid + despicable De mortuis nihil nisi bonum Permalink 2020-07-30 19:53:21

@nntaleb Time to make this a nontechnical chapter in the new book, Vol2 of the Technical Incerto. How you will go bust on a favorable bet. Or why among other things @R_Thaler is a fraud. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp) Permalink 2020-07-30 19:39:10

@nntaleb Interesting warning signs of Alzheimer: He stopped playing bridge ~15 years before he was diagnosed with Alzheimer. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:56:58

@nntaleb The point is that I show in my book evidence that economics is just a citation ring. “Prestige” is just a scam. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:37:23

@nntaleb The idea is: Get data. Derive kernel distribution at bandwidth 1 Get MI[1] Derive kernel dist at finer bandwidth Get M[2] You see convergence as gains are smaller and smaller except for \infty Permalink 2020-07-30 17:15:11

@nntaleb No, there is small effect, so long as you do not use points but distributions. You need perfect relationship = infinity. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:07:05

@nntaleb The difference between continuous (differential) entropy and discrete does not extend to MI. Permalink 2020-07-30 16:49:54

@nntaleb This is an imbecilic interpretation. Sorry I block for sophistry. Permalink 2020-07-30 16:45:38

@nntaleb Something everybody knows Permalink 2020-07-30 16:10:49

@nntaleb The idea is “is it more useful than temperature”? Permalink 2020-07-30 15:53:22

@nntaleb You’ll never grasp voting patterns & political positions of millennials unless you recognize that a new graduate in about anything theoretical (Bachelor, Master even PhD) earns less than a slightly trained plumber, truck driver, or a carpenter. Reflect & see why Univ. going bust. Permalink 2020-07-30 14:00:49

@nntaleb Many other approaches. Thanks, friends. Permalink 2020-07-30 13:44:54

@nntaleb True Permalink 2020-07-30 12:38:16

@nntaleb He was Levantine. Greek Orthodox. Permalink 2020-07-30 12:18:27

@nntaleb One approach Permalink 2020-07-30 12:09:57

@nntaleb This plus coffee helps you to wake up. [Reminder: non-math related cute comment = block] Permalink 2020-07-30 11:53:13

@nntaleb Genetics show the mummies were Levantine Permalink 2020-07-30 11:04:26

@nntaleb Can detect disease not health Permalink 2020-07-30 10:32:51

@nntaleb FACT DU JOUR Omar Sharif (born Michel Dimitri Shalhoub), an actor with brains: + Elite bridge player + Fluent >5 languages + OK in Greek (like many Alexandrians) + Degree in mathematics + Did not socialize w/actors (except. romance w/actresses) Permalink 2020-07-30 10:31:30

@nntaleb So far I haven’t called anyone a fraud who didn’t turn out to be a fraud. Permalink 2020-07-30 10:10:53

@nntaleb Many people, including some doctors, don’t seem to get what a filter means. https://twitter.com/aashiq/status/1288643170058764289?s=21 Permalink 2020-07-30 02:13:35

@nntaleb Did anyone think SPO2 as instant (5 seconds) filter for Covid-19? Isn’t there more signal than with temperature? Permalink 2020-07-30 00:46:39

@nntaleb The debate with John Ioannidis On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables, with @DrCirillo @yaneerbaryam Latest version Permalink 2020-07-29 22:08:33

@nntaleb I revise the book every time you read it. Permalink 2020-07-29 21:42:57

@nntaleb ? no idea. Permalink 2020-07-29 20:22:39

@nntaleb Was looking for your address to mail you the book. Permalink 2020-07-29 18:52:20

@nntaleb Pour commence, Argth la Arg tangente hyperbolic, la reciproque de la tanh n’est pas ½ Log… Permalink 2020-07-29 15:22:01

@nntaleb Cet apres-midi. Permalink 2020-07-29 15:12:09

@nntaleb ECONTALK with @EconTalker https://youtu.be/CyOsUbK8PiE via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-29 15:08:19

@nntaleb Imbecilic remark. What does democracy have to do with your own house? Democracy is about voter participation not letting people troll your private feed. Permalink 2020-07-29 14:22:04

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/ndehouche/status/1288347895993753600 Permalink 2020-07-29 12:59:52

@nntaleb You need to de-discretize your calcs. Permalink 2020-07-29 12:49:24

@nntaleb More “complicated” in statistical domains. Permalink 2020-07-29 12:29:01

@nntaleb And >2 m people visiting and commuting daily Permalink 2020-07-29 12:06:21

@nntaleb For every person you block, you get 10 new followers. Why? Because the quality of your thread improves markedly; comments are worth reading. Protect your thread. Permalink 2020-07-29 00:43:45

@nntaleb In cities, indeed. Permalink 2020-07-29 00:34:38

@nntaleb Διόρθωση: Ψάχνω έναν Έλληνα δάσκαλο της *ελληνικής γλώσσας* στο Zoom (Current level: Koiné) Σας ευχαριστώ όλους Permalink 2020-07-29 00:13:37

@nntaleb DM please. Thanks Permalink 2020-07-29 00:04:54

@nntaleb Could be 2 separate problems. The old must not pass on charges… Permalink 2020-07-28 22:28:42

@nntaleb Great Summary Permalink 2020-07-28 22:04:09

@nntaleb For a citation, I had to get a copy of @PTetlock’s (🐁”Phil the rat”) *Superforecasting* & it is worse than I thought, from his work. [Co-author is a shill/lobbyist paid by large corporations to play down their “risk”] It has major, major mistakes & flaws. What to do? Permalink 2020-07-28 21:21:25

@nntaleb I peer review ALL my work one way or another. Permalink 2020-07-28 21:11:34

@nntaleb Additive & multiplicative Risks should never be compared to one another. Multiplicative => fat tails. We have limited the precautionary principle ONLY to multiplicative risks: + Pandemics (only 72 in history) + Genetic modifications spread in nature Permalink 2020-07-28 21:09:00

@nntaleb The way it works: readers read what a reliable friend recommends, etc. Permalink 2020-07-28 20:32:49

@nntaleb Hi there Can you return it back to them? Further instructions to follow. Permalink 2020-07-28 20:16:34

@nntaleb My experience since “Skin in The Game” is to leave it to social media: genuine readers commenting for potential genuine readers. No more critics who filter & decide what *lesser* readers should like or avoid. My books are not sent to the media & “intellectuals”. F*** them. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:58:41

@nntaleb Mush me2lé! Mshwé! W iza me2lé bzeit zeitun msh mazolla (bi fakkru atyab bil mazolla) Permalink 2020-07-28 19:45:06

@nntaleb I block for sophistry. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:25:42

@nntaleb Shipping next week. But if in a rush, cancel and get this immediately. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:02:52

@nntaleb Plugged out (injury) so just low weights. Permalink 2020-07-28 18:41:18

@nntaleb On it Permalink 2020-07-28 18:36:36

@nntaleb Once in a while, the reverse helps. Permalink 2020-07-28 17:47:14

@nntaleb How strong are both of you now? Permalink 2020-07-28 16:45:36

@nntaleb I tried 5 sets of 10, doing math btw sets. Permalink 2020-07-28 16:21:56

@nntaleb Takes a week to know the benefits Permalink 2020-07-28 15:34:21

@nntaleb Separate day Permalink 2020-07-28 15:33:12

@nntaleb Also 5 sets of 10 presses Permalink 2020-07-28 15:28:43

@nntaleb Did you try the 5 sets of 10 deadlifts? Permalink 2020-07-28 15:24:31

@nntaleb Necessary Permalink 2020-07-28 14:21:16

@nntaleb My problem with him. Permalink 2020-07-28 12:18:41

@nntaleb This was promoted in my feed. These ideas that are supposed to help your life destroy it. If a book can be summarized it’s not a book; if you get something in 15 minutes it is not worth getting. Permalink 2020-07-28 11:54:26

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Where? Permalink 2020-07-28 11:44:27

@nntaleb of ours Permalink 2020-07-28 03:02:05

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get it. Not at all. The argument is about convexity. Permalink 2020-07-28 02:00:55

@nntaleb Haha Campaign started in March. Permalink 2020-07-28 01:46:08

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile, being “right” means agreeing with you? Permalink 2020-07-27 23:49:26

@nntaleb You are clueless. Permalink 2020-07-27 23:41:43

@nntaleb Attitude? What “attitude”? Permalink 2020-07-27 20:39:36

@nntaleb Will restock up next week or but meanwhile try @zachobront’s link. Permalink 2020-07-27 20:26:38

@nntaleb OK, émtin? Permalink 2020-07-27 19:59:54

@nntaleb Leish ma bte3zemné ana? Permalink 2020-07-27 19:54:55

@nntaleb A reminder from PRINCIPIA POLITICA Permalink 2020-07-27 19:09:08

@nntaleb Your statement is MORONIC. As you get more information & granularity you target your measures tfor costs and efficacy Permalink 2020-07-27 18:37:52

@nntaleb I wonder why the cancel culture does not go after the chain of retractions instead of innocent idiots like @sapinker Permalink 2020-07-27 18:08:09

@nntaleb “National IQ” is practically an academic fraud. But the fact it went for so long is quite shocking. Permalink 2020-07-27 18:01:20

@nntaleb @ndehouche Permalink 2020-07-27 17:53:16

@nntaleb Squares Permalink 2020-07-27 17:21:25

@nntaleb Reread our paper. Explained there. Permalink 2020-07-27 16:58:28

@nntaleb We have answered that with our degree of fattailedness of certain class of events >>> all others, hence it is not frivilous and generalized worry. Permalink 2020-07-27 16:52:25

@nntaleb I block idiot. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-27 14:41:29

@nntaleb NOTHING to do with Regime switching. Permalink 2020-07-27 14:20:21

@nntaleb Was it Amazon or Scribe? Permalink 2020-07-27 14:19:20

@nntaleb I blocked him. I block idiots. Permalink 2020-07-27 13:09:58

@nntaleb It is not the same problem and this is not a highshool problem. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:43:40

@nntaleb Assuming it is an error… Thanks! will investigate. I am always worried when no errors are revealed. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:21:01

@nntaleb The distribution is Uniform below 1. Very very strange. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:16:28

@nntaleb The distribution is uniform below 1 ! Permalink 2020-07-27 12:15:37

@nntaleb Great counterintuitive result in probability. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:10:50

@nntaleb The article is for scientists not for politically driven imbeciles like you. Permalink 2020-07-27 02:13:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-27 02:06:15

@nntaleb Cancel and use our link. Ships immediately. Permalink 2020-07-27 02:04:47

@nntaleb And it feels different: you pull from the nape of the neck Permalink 2020-07-27 02:01:04

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-07-27 01:59:20

@nntaleb É. Koyné ba3ref shwayy. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:19:36

@nntaleb Here it is more, as it is 90% of the 10 max Permalink 2020-07-27 01:18:04

@nntaleb Grazie. Rispondera domani. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:11:40

@nntaleb Also, for variery, tried 10 reps deadlift, 5 times today, and the same with presses yesterday. Feels great, like a sprint. Watched elevated hearbeat and saw it crash. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:08:19

@nntaleb That’s the work equivalent of intermittent fasting. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:05:18

@nntaleb No comparison. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:03:45

@nntaleb Much simpler to cut calories. I reach ketosis eating pasta when I do OMAD. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:02:34

@nntaleb Haven’t practiced in 40 years! Permalink 2020-07-26 21:53:21

@nntaleb Rispondera domani. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:51:44

@nntaleb Babbler, not speaker. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:49:50

@nntaleb Αγαπητοί φίλοι και φίλες, Ψάχνω έναν Έλληνα δάσκαλο στο Zoom Permalink 2020-07-26 21:45:10

@nntaleb Link? Permalink 2020-07-26 21:19:54

@nntaleb He never understood convexity. But cities are Lindy by virtue of location. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:17:40

@nntaleb Traders Permalink 2020-07-26 21:15:09

@nntaleb Cities when not monstrously large. Size is bad. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:49:29

@nntaleb In French, same thing. “Valeurs propres”. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:44:20

@nntaleb CITIES ARE FRAGILE Flaneured around NYC for a day. I spent 2/3 of my life in the area. Saaaaaaaad. Idiots claiming cities “more efficient” don’t realize the concavity/fragility to shocks. See #Antifragile: Rome went from 2.2M to few 100K & took >1500 years to come back. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:06:55

@nntaleb The conductor of the USJ (Jesuit Univ.) chorus in Beirut is a Lebanese woman (I assume Muslim from her name). https://twitter.com/USJLiban/status/1287462673551175680 Permalink 2020-07-26 19:30:44

@nntaleb The rarest (and most valuable) thing on this planet: a clear mind. Permalink 2020-07-26 16:59:15

@nntaleb After a lull, research is undergoing a back-migration to the land of grape leaves, thyme, and olive oil: the Republics of the Eastern Mediterranean. Thanks @polemitis for these ambitious projects; more to come. Permalink 2020-07-26 15:28:03

@nntaleb False negatives are a function of contageousness. Permalink 2020-07-26 15:18:39

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-26 14:03:50

@nntaleb Another misunderstood convexity: frequent testing beats precision. A solution is STARING at us. “Evidence based” idiots can’t easily get it because, as with MASKS, they can’t understand cheap alternatives. Permalink 2020-07-26 12:01:04

@nntaleb Cristo in Italiano e Francese (Montecristo, Monte Cristo) Permalink 2020-07-26 10:37:25

@nntaleb Fi PDF? Permalink 2020-07-25 20:31:05

@nntaleb My friend, not the squid ink sauce. Colored pasta. Permalink 2020-07-25 19:03:46

@nntaleb COVID: A central ethical point: intergenerational liability. Like many central points, goes to the footnote. Permalink 2020-07-25 15:38:11

@nntaleb I avoided mentioning Shiism because it is not clear to me. But for Alawis, it is. Permalink 2020-07-25 14:54:30

@nntaleb Imbecile White != Nordic Permalink 2020-07-25 14:41:41

@nntaleb A gracious and very scientific debate with Ioannidis et al., @yaneerbaryam @DrCirillo We add: 1- How individual risks do not map to collective risks. 2- The False Dichotomy economy/disease mitigation. For comments (submitting today) Permalink 2020-07-25 12:14:08

@nntaleb 2) Some religions allow “Taqiyya”, i.e. concealing one’s creed or modifying it to the outside: Gnostic religions, Alevis, Alawis, Druze. Never Sunni Islam or Greek Orthodoxy. Religious history becomes muddled. Early East-Med Christians would rather die than deny their religion. Permalink 2020-07-25 11:44:32

@nntaleb BS Permalink 2020-07-25 11:38:36

@nntaleb No. DNA has not changed. Permalink 2020-07-25 10:59:20

@nntaleb Was invited to debate him. Permalink 2020-07-25 01:07:30

@nntaleb Taqiyya! Permalink 2020-07-24 22:53:31

@nntaleb The Marranos were nonChristians who upon the inquisition faked Christianity to aboid persecution. Academic Marranos fake it to avoid being cancelled. Some SJW Marranos will secretly vote Trump. Permalink 2020-07-24 22:47:10

@nntaleb Wrong, it is linear Permalink 2020-07-24 21:47:28

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-24 20:10:08

@nntaleb Yes, it looks much more elegant in CDF Permalink 2020-07-24 19:37:00

@nntaleb We are debating Ioannidis, thanks to @pierrepinson and @spyrosmakrid Our final answer to him was just completed, to post soon. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:34:53

@nntaleb Not the same thing. I was looking for the density, not the CDF. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:29:14

@nntaleb They should cut the “arabic”, to TUnision, Algerian, etc. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:26:28

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-07-24 17:19:59

@nntaleb Yes, sums of Beta distributed B[1/n,1], with a trick. for n=2, pi/4, verifying the general formula. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:16:53

@nntaleb @PZalloua and I will join the U. (soon). We will force them to change the titles: The Prince in Italian, The Republic in Greek, all in the ORIGINAL language. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:08:36

@nntaleb Right I misread X instead of X^n. It is one transformation before. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:03:18

@nntaleb CORRECTION: S^n-1 in numerator Permalink 2020-07-24 13:43:15

@nntaleb Application Permalink 2020-07-24 13:42:35

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-24 13:39:33

@nntaleb Lyom! Min jéyé? Permalink 2020-07-24 13:13:58

@nntaleb Yes, imbeciles. Permalink 2020-07-24 12:54:20

@nntaleb Voila. Permalink 2020-07-24 12:53:14

@nntaleb INEQUALITY DU JOUR This one is easy enough for morning coffee. Helps start the weekend. [Non-math commentators, please do not pollute the thread] Permalink 2020-07-24 12:15:18

@nntaleb His wife is native Syrian speaking from Turkey. Permalink 2020-07-24 11:28:59

@nntaleb Doesn’t look Lebanese at all. Permalink 2020-07-24 11:15:48

@nntaleb It was never inside the article Permalink 2020-07-23 22:35:48

@nntaleb OK Permalink 2020-07-23 22:28:40

@nntaleb I can put you there. Give me a picture. Permalink 2020-07-23 22:27:26

@nntaleb A Dutcgg photographer clueless about population genetics. Permalink 2020-07-23 22:20:21

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-23 22:17:31

@nntaleb He was Med that’s not Middle Eastern Permalink 2020-07-23 22:16:10

@nntaleb Insufferable… with some… Permalink 2020-07-23 21:47:29

@nntaleb Completamente Permalink 2020-07-23 16:04:50

@nntaleb Which author? Permalink 2020-07-23 11:56:46

@nntaleb And remember the PDF is Free https://researchers.one/article/2020-01-21… https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-07-23 01:38:29

@nntaleb Unwavering in friendship, unwavery in enmity. Permalink 2020-07-23 01:36:00

@nntaleb Struck a deal Permalink 2020-07-22 16:12:18

@nntaleb That people who asked your type of question should NOT read the book. Permalink 2020-07-22 16:01:13

@nntaleb I was irked at the framing by the NYT Permalink 2020-07-22 15:54:08

@nntaleb Friends, Here is a link where you can order STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95 with the reduced shipping [Next 2 weeks]. https://thescribestore.com/products/statistical-consequences-of-fat-tails-by-nassim-taleb And remember the PDF is Free https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-07-22 15:53:09

@nntaleb Yes, the outcome & her end “position” is not the question. Permalink 2020-07-22 15:48:15

@nntaleb Actually worse: he was bad to OLD slaves. Permalink 2020-07-22 15:23:05

@nntaleb “Synchronous belief” Permalink 2020-07-22 14:20:40

@nntaleb I like “Mediterranean Studies” or Ancient World Studies since the pillars were Babylon + Egypt Permalink 2020-07-22 14:03:33

@nntaleb Excellent. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:56:20

@nntaleb There is another one, but yours is EXACTLY what I was looking for. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:35:47

@nntaleb I saw a commentary on Deuteronomy. There is another one by Rashi but still deciphering. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:24:31

@nntaleb No, imbecile. She was bigottering IN THE article, even if she did not cancel him. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:18:29

@nntaleb 4) Midrash Sefre. Rabbi Yossi HaGalili: אצל שופט שלא נמצא בימיו? אלא שופט שהוא כשר (ומוחזק) באותן הימים. היה קרוב ונתרחק – כשר. [דבר אחר, אין לך אלא שופט שבימיך.] Permalink 2020-07-22 13:14:51

@nntaleb אמר רבי יוסי הגלילי, וכי תעלה על דעתך, שאדם הולך אצל שופט שלא נמצא בימיו? אלא שופט שהוא כשר (ומוחזק) באותן הימים. היה קרוב ונתרחק – כשר. [דבר אחר, אין לך אלא שופט שבימיך.] Permalink 2020-07-22 13:08:44

@nntaleb There is something YOU are not getting, aside from your defective anachronistic reasoning: the NYT DOES NOT publish stuff outside very very narrow parameters (I have 5 Op-Eds there). Permalink 2020-07-22 12:41:17

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-07-22 12:37:20

@nntaleb Thanks but when did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-22 12:11:21

@nntaleb They filter Op-Eds, do refuse mine systematically. I published 5 Op-Eds there in the past when the opinion was lined up to theirs. My point isn’t the opinion but the very idea of having to debate canceling a past figure. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:53:53

@nntaleb 3) The Wahabis destroyed ancient ruins in Saudi Arabia (including Islamic ones) to “prevent” idolatry. Soon we will be bulldozing ruins built by slaves (Great Pyramid/Coliseum), then structures built by labor w/o medical benefits, then those by nonvegetarian architects. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:38:10

@nntaleb (Yes I know the NYT ends up “opposed” to the idea of “cancelling Aristotle”, but the mere fact that they suggest the possibility …) Permalink 2020-07-22 11:22:31

@nntaleb 2/ By retrospective bigotteering, they will end up canceling ALL their ancestors, 99.9% of the contents of libraries and any institution older than 5 years will eventually end up canceling itself. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:17:01

@nntaleb Exactly. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:09:01

@nntaleb Any reference? Permalink 2020-07-22 11:06:37

@nntaleb The NYT suggests cancelling Aristotle. This is retrospective bigotteering; it implies moral values DO NOT evolve. People need to be judged with respect to the morals OF THEIR OWN TIME. (But we can be harsh w/Napoleon who reinstated slavery.) Permalink 2020-07-22 10:53:05

@nntaleb Bingo, Nassim. Saudi/Gulf people despise Levantines and Maghrebis, consider them “impure”. Permalink 2020-07-22 10:36:24

@nntaleb OK same ting Permalink 2020-07-22 00:58:07

@nntaleb Squid ink. A lot of squid ink. Permalink 2020-07-22 00:22:47

@nntaleb Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-07-21 23:58:43

@nntaleb Disagree. CI says roughly you cannot build a function to project over n steps without n-1, and n-1 without n-2. Non analytic, no derivatives, etc. Permalink 2020-07-21 23:32:20

@nntaleb TeXpad Permalink 2020-07-21 23:06:26

@nntaleb Alla yer7ama. Permalink 2020-07-21 21:33:18

@nntaleb Tell them Nice try. Permalink 2020-07-21 21:06:58

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi might manage to escape justice for a while, but… where is he going to go? Nice to see one’s villains in a cage, from which they can’t get out. Permalink 2020-07-21 20:30:05

@nntaleb Something tells me that the risk is dose-related, so fewer deaths in the summer, mistakenly attributed to the unavoidable mutation. Permalink 2020-07-21 20:01:20

@nntaleb No cream. Just foam from the beans. Permalink 2020-07-21 19:19:40

@nntaleb The olive smell is intentional. This is the first probability book ever sold in Med grocery stores and luxury olive oil stores. Permalink 2020-07-21 18:46:55

@nntaleb You have the knack of posting videos of me with 20 kg more. Permalink 2020-07-21 17:21:07

@nntaleb Don’t worry if the Lebanese judiciary is frozen. The FT is on the job. This is today. Not a good day to be #RiadPonzi https://www.ft.com/content/d2d63b9b-9669-4ec0-93e9-ed97cbeb9261 via @financialtimes Permalink 2020-07-21 16:54:51

@nntaleb It is all starting now for Lebanese Central Bank Governor #RiadPonzi; we had to wait 10 m after I exposed him at USJ. He tried (& failed) to smear me (but hurt some of my friends) Being #vindictive, I manifest my elation watching the predicted fall of a villain & personal enemy. Permalink 2020-07-21 16:44:19

@nntaleb I don’t think so. Here is the PDF Permalink 2020-07-21 16:04:54

@nntaleb NY Permalink 2020-07-21 16:01:53

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-07-21 14:58:17

@nntaleb We have a note on country IQ to write. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:53:37

@nntaleb THINGS I LEARNED IN 2020 @rorysutherland told me that working outside, in a garden or in a park doesn’t feel like work. So long as it is outside. Works! Trying it for stuff that is *work* & requires colossal effort: s.a. reading emails from NJ, comments from referees, etc. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:37:23

@nntaleb We knew “nudge” (Thaler and Sunstein) relies on a buch of severe errors in probability. It is actually worse: vastly non-empirical claims. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:04:21

@nntaleb Must be Lebanese, Tiyan is Semitic (Tyan = bird in Lebanese, Tuyyoyo = Arab in Syriac) and not found in French. Plus look at the picture Permalink 2020-07-21 12:56:07

@nntaleb I block imbeciles. Sorry. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:27:28

@nntaleb The same people who worry about “costs” of mitigating the pandemic spend trillions on weaponry “for insurance”. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:15:20

@nntaleb Not segregated in the modern sense. Town vs country, educated vs uneducated. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:09:09

@nntaleb Same tools same coffee grind. Never forget cold water after every sip, the East-Med way. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:05:47

@nntaleb @ndehouche can give you lists, St Augustine being the most known Permalink 2020-07-21 11:31:40

@nntaleb How much $$do they charge? Permalink 2020-07-21 11:03:20

@nntaleb How much is Amz UK? Could be OK Permalink 2020-07-21 10:57:49

@nntaleb Indeed the only podcasts I do is with @EconTalker as, over time, I learned refined economic reasoning from him & developed arguments over a 13 y conversation. Permalink 2020-07-21 10:53:56

@nntaleb Vivi in italia? Permalink 2020-07-21 01:07:54

@nntaleb In 2 or 3 days there will be a link to ship to Europe at minimal additional cost. Permalink 2020-07-21 01:05:48

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-21 01:04:54

@nntaleb Grazie. Impari qualcosa ogni giorno. Permalink 2020-07-21 01:02:53

@nntaleb Fuck, no. Permalink 2020-07-21 00:57:48

@nntaleb Which is what I asked @Normonic, no? Or is it different when it is not a price, where you use the plural? In Fr it is “combien” for both Permalink 2020-07-21 00:56:37

@nntaleb In a store how you say “how much”? Permalink 2020-07-21 00:50:54

@nntaleb When you ask for a price, you say “quanto” or “quanti”? Curious Permalink 2020-07-21 00:32:52

@nntaleb You are debating someone I’ve blocked for serious defects in thinking. So keep that in mind when you get spurious arguments about what is or what is not “native”. Permalink 2020-07-21 00:29:33

@nntaleb You mean Central Med. Sicily = Central Med Permalink 2020-07-21 00:22:58

@nntaleb Quanto? 35? Permalink 2020-07-21 00:18:46

@nntaleb That’s the narrative used against Palestinians and used by the French to keep Algeria. Permalink 2020-07-20 22:51:32

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-07-20 21:38:58

@nntaleb We had 6x capacity, 2 y waiting list. Permalink 2020-07-20 21:22:27

@nntaleb 3indak nbid w Nero di Sepia. Shu baddo l wa7ad gheir shi? Permalink 2020-07-20 20:47:30

@nntaleb 3inna RWRI Permalink 2020-07-20 20:44:06

@nntaleb Mush kll l wa2t blebnén: 3 shor bil sené Permalink 2020-07-20 20:36:05

@nntaleb Fuck, no. The Levant only 2. Different culture/origins/history. Permalink 2020-07-20 20:03:46

@nntaleb WTF do you mean “finally”? Permalink 2020-07-20 19:49:57

@nntaleb If the thing is linear y1=a x, y2=b x, it is the integral of the absolute difference Abs[(b-a) x]. If same sign, =(b-a)(x2^2-x1^2)/2, otherwise pick {x1,x2,x3} and use absolute. Permalink 2020-07-20 19:46:59

@nntaleb False dichotomy: it is an error to ignore that the pandemic itself has economic costs and make a trade-off between health and economics. Permalink 2020-07-20 19:26:50

@nntaleb OK OK libya Permalink 2020-07-20 18:31:03

@nntaleb Lybia and Tunisia had Arabic J1e coming in noncoastal areas because nomads could handle the conditions, similar to Arabis. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:29:21

@nntaleb Most in the North did until the 1600s speak a version of it. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:27:41

@nntaleb Baddna zoom @Decafquest Permalink 2020-07-20 18:26:11

@nntaleb Straw man? leb dialect is treated as a “lahja” and descendant of Dus7a Permalink 2020-07-20 18:20:23

@nntaleb Easier to implement. Lebanese and Western Syrian. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:19:20

@nntaleb Konfirmed. Only Tunisia has Peninsular gene flow. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:17:39

@nntaleb heik 3am bi sir Permalink 2020-07-20 17:44:33

@nntaleb Welcome! Permalink 2020-07-20 17:44:02

@nntaleb Ktir burokratiyyé honik. Permalink 2020-07-20 17:41:58

@nntaleb Hi Not recommended. Permalink 2020-07-20 17:40:21

@nntaleb Some historical facts: Algerians (particularly in coastal cities) spoke Latin for CENTURIES before the French learned it & bastardized it into what is now their language. Make the #SouthMed great again! Permalink 2020-07-20 17:39:04

@nntaleb Evidence: 1 min ago Permalink 2020-07-20 16:46:49

@nntaleb Crap. Permalink 2020-07-20 16:45:29

@nntaleb There is no teleological “forward”. There is one condition: very small steps locally (with occasional large payoffs). Permalink 2020-07-20 16:05:39

@nntaleb Interestingly Rimbaud worked for a Lebanese dealer César Tiyyan Permalink 2020-07-20 14:48:03

@nntaleb The difference betw Classical Arabic and Levantine is stark here. Proves one can reach yuuuuuuuuuge linguistic prowess in Lebanese. This poetry that is never taught in school, repressed by the Arabists & the “left” that aims to destroys nonelite/local languages. @Firsou 1/n Permalink 2020-07-20 14:47:22

@nntaleb Not the point: reverse engineering produces compounding errors under dimensionality. Permalink 2020-07-20 14:20:56

@nntaleb Ana tlmizak! Permalink 2020-07-20 13:58:02

@nntaleb Below 70 Permalink 2020-07-20 13:32:16

@nntaleb My explanation why those discussing genetics of intelligence don’t understand basic multivariate statistics. Also applies to the BS claims by @sapinker. Permalink 2020-07-20 13:04:29

@nntaleb Leish hal akl khara? Mshklét l balad 2yura mtlak. Permalink 2020-07-20 12:59:40

@nntaleb Ana mush mtl Twayné W 2asir, 3ndé 3ilé2at ma3 l kll w ma3 l mashri2iyyé… bass msh ma3 l Salafiyyé wl 3urubiyyé Permalink 2020-07-20 12:51:33

@nntaleb WARNING The Lebanese are citing some dark article by the Washington Post @LizSly If journalists knew anything about anything in business & economics they wouldn’t be journalists. Permalink 2020-07-20 12:13:54

@nntaleb Ma be2ra illa bil mashr2é (Levantine) Permalink 2020-07-20 11:45:06

@nntaleb Here is what he got confused with Permalink 2020-07-20 11:43:33

@nntaleb There is an “i” too many Permalink 2020-07-20 11:39:00

@nntaleb Ana baddé lézém lé2é jém3a 3a zaw2é bté3zmné. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:36:38

@nntaleb Fi byetrko, fi byeb2o, fi byejo! Ba3d ma @PZalloua 2arrar yb2a bi baladna bhal fatra lse3bé, mfakkar ana erja3, la intemé la jém3a bi Lebnén la 2awwé l ma3nawiyyét (w 3allém l tlémiz Data Science). Permalink 2020-07-20 11:29:26

@nntaleb Salibi was a fraud, I block people who promote frauds. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:02:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-20 11:00:54

@nntaleb In old Arabic, Ajami عجمي meant Persian or foreigner, as there was an expression: “al 3rbu wal 3ajamu”. Seemingly same in Osmali. Permalink 2020-07-20 00:22:20

@nntaleb It seems to me from what little Osmali I can make out, that Acemoglu is “son of the Persian”, Acemi+Oglu Permalink 2020-07-20 00:02:23

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-19 23:09:39

@nntaleb Yes in text explain that the collective is AF at the expense of individual restaurants. Permalink 2020-07-19 23:08:06

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-19 23:04:12

@nntaleb Never thought that. Restaurants have ALWAYS been fragile. The quality benefits from bankruptcies. Permalink 2020-07-19 23:03:44

@nntaleb I live there 3 mo/year … Permalink 2020-07-19 22:55:58

@nntaleb 2eltello Permalink 2020-07-19 22:40:37

@nntaleb Heik 2elello la 7sein mbére7. Permalink 2020-07-19 22:30:03

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order? Permalink 2020-07-19 21:01:42

@nntaleb @PZalloua is writing one. A real one Permalink 2020-07-19 18:46:41

@nntaleb He knows Classical Arabic but his native language is Levantine, 75% of a language away from Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-19 18:45:24

@nntaleb nitpicking: claim not claims Permalink 2020-07-19 17:21:17

@nntaleb nitpicking: speack IN French Permalink 2020-07-19 17:20:44

@nntaleb GODEL DU JOUR Someone hearing me speak french, – Ah you speak French [in French] Me [in French]: Not at all I am faking it (“je fais semblant”) – Sorry I mistakenly thought you spoke Fr Me [in French]: Everyone makes mistakes. Permalink 2020-07-19 17:15:18

@nntaleb Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-07-19 17:09:25

@nntaleb Yes I blocked for sophistry. Permalink 2020-07-19 17:01:30

@nntaleb The claims that I blocked Saifedean Ammous based on private communication is a lie. I blocked him on the basis of dangerously crankish and conspiratorial public feed. I block all lunatics. Gabish? Permalink 2020-07-19 16:51:29

@nntaleb Leish ya Bourashid ma btktob bil 7 mtlna la nefham bsr3a? Permalink 2020-07-19 13:19:54

@nntaleb Free PDF Permalink 2020-07-19 12:08:57

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 6 Footnotes. a) PLANNED OBSOLESCENCE The quality of hardcover books released now is so bad, as it publishers knew nobody would care about the book after 2 years. b) Few publishers are in for the 3rd wave: Penguin (UK), Knopf, etc. Why? It’s a small market! Permalink 2020-07-19 12:06:06

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 5 So, need to avoid “launches” to avoid the promiscuous 1st wave buyers. My books will not be launched/distributed, just to avoid the buyer who *buys books* rather than someone who wants the specific topic. I started my own publishing for StConsFTails. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:52:01

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 4 I am only interested in the 3rd wave (FBR, INCERTO-1, is ~20 y old); I am in a different business. I shd avoid the First Wave buyer, who doesn’t count long term. They rely on book reviewers (not time), e.g. that BSVendor @EasterbrookG for the NYT. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 3 Most Publishers make $from the First Wave, with increasingly lower quality paper that degrades w/time. Their staff isn’t even equipped for the 3rd Wave as no credits/promotions beyond the first/2nd year when the book is attributed to a specific editor Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 2 Then they move on to the next book & books go to low margin paperback & eventually die. 2nd Wave: Few books survive, only if they have #Lindy attributes, & or if some academic conversation props them up. Third Wave: One in 1,000 -10,000 makes it. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 1 First Wave: Fashion buyers, the class of people who systematically buy NEW “idea books”. The entire book industry organized to sell to them. Books must be “in the conversation”. The hardcover sales is where the $$$are made. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is what I am saying. Tribes and national statism are not the same thing. See PRINCIPIA POLITICA Permalink 2020-07-19 11:26:03

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-19 11:01:04

@nntaleb The dark story of the “enlightenment”. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:00:11

@nntaleb Hayda robust Permalink 2020-07-19 10:56:22

@nntaleb Just ordered. Thanks. Permalink 2020-07-19 02:24:50

@nntaleb Ktir 2awiyyé Permalink 2020-07-19 00:16:01

@nntaleb Thanks Mansour! mt3addar it is, from Hydra AND, mysteriously, from an old Semitic tale about a donkey that grows heads when you cut one off. [Practically all Greek myth have a more ancient Aegyptian or Semitic counterpart] Te3dir تِعدير = antifragilty Permalink 2020-07-18 20:49:25

@nntaleb mt3addar! the right meaning. Permalink 2020-07-18 20:20:01

@nntaleb How about متلدن from تلدين, annealing? Permalink 2020-07-18 20:09:31

@nntaleb مش كافي Permalink 2020-07-18 20:07:09

@nntaleb Hayda robust Permalink 2020-07-18 20:01:59

@nntaleb 3am nt2arrab! Permalink 2020-07-18 19:58:50

@nntaleb לָֹא, יעני תחססנ Permalink 2020-07-18 19:52:22

@nntaleb In Hebrew was Anti shabir אנטי שביר Permalink 2020-07-18 19:49:41

@nntaleb robust Permalink 2020-07-18 19:48:12

@nntaleb يعني اكل دعك… و تحسن Permalink 2020-07-18 19:46:36

@nntaleb منيحا هيده Permalink 2020-07-18 19:45:19

@nntaleb لئ Permalink 2020-07-18 19:44:19

@nntaleb متخبط ؟ كلمه جديده Permalink 2020-07-18 19:43:10

@nntaleb No no no Permalink 2020-07-18 19:33:45

@nntaleb No no no ماكن= robust Permalink 2020-07-18 19:33:27

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DISCUSSION Looking for a term close to Antifragile in Levantine (not necessarily Antifragile) for a translation of the article with @HsenAndil and @Zzeghedrane. It does not have to be literal Permalink 2020-07-18 19:19:12

@nntaleb Yes, you are right. This was not published… I didn’t recognize my words as I usually polish before putting in a book. Permalink 2020-07-18 18:37:01

@nntaleb I NEVER wrote this Permalink 2020-07-18 17:16:51

@nntaleb If you want. If so, pls add + ergodicity + IQ + GMO(s) + Brier Permalink 2020-07-18 17:13:48

@nntaleb The Khazar theory is but, was some BS by a political journalist. Permalink 2020-07-18 17:06:55

@nntaleb Hold off might get something better Permalink 2020-07-18 13:52:44

@nntaleb But can’t get the distinct Koura smell. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:45:01

@nntaleb I speculate that, aside from the dimensionality problem, e-books cannot produce odors, so I guess no olive oil. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1284470642180587521 Permalink 2020-07-18 13:43:20

@nntaleb How much is shipping? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:37:47

@nntaleb Yes, of course, many historians are rigorous; which part of “usually” was not clear? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:35:19

@nntaleb We changed supplier. New one delivers immediately. You can cancel and reorder. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:33:50

@nntaleb “Orders” Permalink 2020-07-18 13:31:38

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:20:35

@nntaleb No, Aleppo: many look like him there. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:41:11

@nntaleb Cannot resist. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:31:40

@nntaleb 2) This is a “mamluk nobleman from Aleppo”. Explain how one could be BOTH slave and nobleman except in a structure similar to Mafia made man. Historians are usually not very bright; their classifications are absurd & they don’t have the guts or intellect to question them. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:25:48

@nntaleb Ingram the distributor is incompetent. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:13:57

@nntaleb No fucking imbecile, this is IN COMPARISON to other populations. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:12:41

@nntaleb HISTORICAL MUSING of the day: MAFIA & MAMELUKS The Mameluks were military “slaves” (oft. Chris. born) who were paradoxically the ruling class. How? Same w/MADE MEN in the Mafia. Once in you can’t get out. You are both owned by the mafia & part owner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mamluk Permalink 2020-07-18 12:10:50

@nntaleb Jaffer, block nitpickers. This has nothing to do with the gender of the predator. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:22:56

@nntaleb He is OK but no scholar. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:21:57

@nntaleb The biggest BS in discourse is claiming “people are self-interested and *rational*”. No. It is not so “rational” at the individual level; it is rational at the group level to wear mask under multiplicative risks because YOU are part of the multiplication. https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1284190658060668928 Permalink 2020-07-18 10:21:02

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-17 23:17:38

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuck off? This is giving moral support to 000s of youth. Permalink 2020-07-17 20:03:20

@nntaleb Fuck, no. I’ve never seen an economist do real world statistics right. Permalink 2020-07-17 20:00:50

@nntaleb The precedent has begun. Detenuring is easy: close depts. Rent-seeking at the expense of middle class parents eventually has an end. Detenured professors in social science are unskilled labor outside citation rings. You can’t use an economist for gardening or moving furniture. Permalink 2020-07-17 19:45:09

@nntaleb The Indicator function gives you Pi. Permalink 2020-07-17 19:37:05

@nntaleb You represent the East Med. Permalink 2020-07-17 18:59:34

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-17 18:49:57

@nntaleb This is heroic. 1) Zalloua stays in Lebanon to be honorable/not a deserter. 2) Joins the univ. of the Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Antioch (even better). 3) We are starting the EAST MED DATA SCIENCE CENTER. 4) Balamand is a 12 C Crusader outpost (Belmont), 6 km from Amioun. Permalink 2020-07-17 18:44:18

@nntaleb Siesta. Permalink 2020-07-17 17:16:46

@nntaleb Genetically, Meds are not made for the sun. 6000-3000 years is not enough. Their skin wrinkles. Permalink 2020-07-17 17:05:56

@nntaleb Why do I despise nitpickers? Tautology in LOGIC is a statement that is true by necessity. Do you mind if I block you? Don’t be offended. It is simple discipline: I managed in my life and in my Twitter feed to get rid of nitpickers. Permalink 2020-07-17 16:58:18

@nntaleb Fox News will some day discover that thing commonly known as tautology. https://fxn.ws/30oLmI2 #FoxNews Permalink 2020-07-17 16:10:23

@nntaleb Not always and not for everyone. Money cured my desire for luxuries. Permalink 2020-07-17 15:48:45

@nntaleb Siesta Permalink 2020-07-17 15:22:25

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-07-17 14:55:50

@nntaleb That fund? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/taleb-advised-universa-tail-risk-fund-returned-3-600-in-march Permalink 2020-07-17 14:54:54

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-17 13:41:41

@nntaleb Vero Permalink 2020-07-17 13:37:44

@nntaleb @tomsmith585 https://link.medium.com/ZpadefF7b8 Permalink 2020-07-17 13:33:05

@nntaleb I know it’s comedy. Problem is many don’t Permalink 2020-07-17 13:09:18

@nntaleb Weyn l Brikka? Permalink 2020-07-17 13:04:18

@nntaleb Was thinking the SAME! Absense of sense of humor is a marker of a total inability to get nuances, prominent among pseudolibertarians, maxbitcoiners, Salafis, Protestant zealots, NYTcopyeditors, CancelCulturistas & others w/seriously defective intellects. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:55:45

@nntaleb Was thinking the SAME thing! Absense of humor is a sign of inability to get nuances, prominent among pseudolibertarians, Salafis, zealots, etc. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:44:52

@nntaleb Sorry but I block people who write nonsense. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:38:45

@nntaleb Thanks to lax law enforcement in some U.S. cities these strategies might be actually used to promote mask use– a step up from social shaming. Permalink 2020-07-17 11:10:11

@nntaleb Any function of it. Permalink 2020-07-17 10:48:45

@nntaleb Why? This is both true and not racist at all since NonGaussian. Permalink 2020-07-17 01:45:50

@nntaleb And the highest title was “second teacher”, as nobody could reach the level of Aristotle. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Farabi Permalink 2020-07-16 22:30:22

@nntaleb There were tonnnnnnnnns of Greek speaking people in the Khalifate (my ancestors and all educated pple in the coastal Levant). But Arabic language thinkers worshiped Aristotle but relied on “the interpreter” who wrote in Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-16 22:27:52

@nntaleb حلوة يريت استعملتها لما كتبت انتيهشاش Permalink 2020-07-16 22:12:17

@nntaleb Culinarily, America is now a Med colony. Permalink 2020-07-16 19:13:03

@nntaleb Having a lot of Twitter followers… not necessarily Permalink 2020-07-16 18:32:34

@nntaleb “Israeli style”? You mean Lebanese. Permalink 2020-07-16 18:29:43

@nntaleb You said Arabic doesn’t work Permalink 2020-07-16 18:28:53

@nntaleb As usual, they went to Alexandria … then. Athens was a relic. Permalink 2020-07-16 17:16:38

@nntaleb There is a yuuuuuuge Byzantine production repressed by Euro scholars because of Gibbons and the bad press of the enlightenment. Will find Mavroudi’s lecture. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:34:17

@nntaleb Reinvention; read reintroduction into the consciousness but since 3rd C BC Alexandria was the true Greek center. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:17:45

@nntaleb For 1800 years few Greeks discussed Athens. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:09:38

@nntaleb Which is why Hagia Sophia hurts. Greek is Hellenistic, not Classical; Nordics who reinvented a “Greek identity” w/Greek gods on coffeeshop takeout mugs never get it. Nor do Levantines brainwashed by Arab fascism. Athens is a German Disneyland-style reinvention in the early 19C. Permalink 2020-07-16 15:59:40

@nntaleb New York Suburbs. In normal times, this parking lot for commuters to NYC would be full. Sometimes all it takes is one single image to be hit with reality. I am still in disbelief. Permalink 2020-07-16 15:53:13

@nntaleb Maybe they use past record as prior Permalink 2020-07-16 13:33:27

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1267161610243710976?s=21 Permalink 2020-07-16 11:37:30

@nntaleb Mabruk. Weyn? Permalink 2020-07-16 11:23:20

@nntaleb COVID is an economic stress test: the fragile is being destroyed (universities, airlines); the robust will thrive. It’s mostly an intellectual stress test; destroying fake probability: non-EVT epidemiology, naive”evidence based”(Ioannidis), BS vendors (@PTetlock🐁, Sunstein)… Permalink 2020-07-16 10:48:16

@nntaleb When Turkish was written with Arabic characters, they respected the sounds: “c” was “g”, etc. Permalink 2020-07-16 10:14:51

@nntaleb Palestinians from Galilee, particularly Christians, have the same genetics as Greeks and Southern Italians. Are Greeks “brown”? If so, is Aristotle “brown”? How did you get a theology degree being that stupid? Permalink 2020-07-16 01:21:29

@nntaleb Yes they took over and it was more like made men in the mafia: you are now a property of the mafia while being part owner. Permalink 2020-07-16 01:02:26

@nntaleb It’s going to get better. Permalink 2020-07-16 01:01:26

@nntaleb Never Beirut. It was largely migration into, unlike Tyre. Permalink 2020-07-15 21:45:21

@nntaleb Actually Med genetics! Permalink 2020-07-15 21:35:31

@nntaleb With help from Scribe Media @TuckerMax @zachobront Permalink 2020-07-15 21:22:50

@nntaleb Liguria is Med as hell Permalink 2020-07-15 21:19:27

@nntaleb No child sacrifice is fake news. They just buried dead children together. Greeks have plenty of aged persons in statues. Permalink 2020-07-15 21:15:13

@nntaleb Yes and the Jesuits messed it up with casuistry and use of equivocation. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:30:31

@nntaleb Look at the wrinkles! Permalink 2020-07-15 20:25:11

@nntaleb ALL Roman soldiers were free men, no? Same with Arabs. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:24:47

@nntaleb “Meds try to look older; more prestige…” True Trying to do a portrait for the French Incerto. Will look 24 years older and 24 lbs heavier. Why? this is not a diet/life coaching book. https://twitter.com/GregorySMcMuray/status/1283496199300026371?s=20 Permalink 2020-07-15 20:22:54

@nntaleb White lie. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:18:00

@nntaleb Lying (outside of white lies) is a sin, except when some busybody asks you something personal that’s none of their business or not relevant to the discussion. You are then morally obligated to confuse them. When journos ask me for my DoB, I always give Mandelbrot’s, 1924. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:14:41

@nntaleb Soon Permalink 2020-07-15 19:35:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-15 19:08:18

@nntaleb You can approve it is a different distributor, in stock. Permalink 2020-07-15 19:06:49

@nntaleb Actually it is in from another distributor. So you can wait for old order to be fulfilled or cancel and reorder, but for US only. Permalink 2020-07-15 19:05:40

@nntaleb Could it be Mori? Permalink 2020-07-15 18:59:22

@nntaleb Hi, when did you order? Thanks Permalink 2020-07-15 18:56:33

@nntaleb I picked the MOST expensive paper I could find, full color. This is an artisanal book, where I wrote, typeset, formatted. Did the entire thing. Feels like #SoulInTheGame Permalink 2020-07-15 18:56:09

@nntaleb Actually, the Naples version is a pun since “muori” is a town nearby. Permalink 2020-07-15 18:28:05

@nntaleb The French have a much more concise way to express it: “Voir Naples[Venise] et mourir” Permalink 2020-07-15 18:22:47

@nntaleb The French have a much more concise way to express it: “Voir Naples[Venise] et mourir” Permalink 2020-07-15 18:22:34

@nntaleb Soon you will see more evidence with my notes on the text. Permalink 2020-07-15 18:13:19

@nntaleb Je lis Frédéric Dard pour la langue. Pas d’académie, pas de controle. Permalink 2020-07-15 16:59:28

@nntaleb But those you can’t study for them Permalink 2020-07-15 16:47:29

@nntaleb If you must study for an exam, you will never really know the subject matter. Permalink 2020-07-15 15:49:30

@nntaleb Grant, you can get the class at TJ Max for $6 a pair! Permalink 2020-07-15 13:55:27

@nntaleb “Qui m’ont échappé”, cher compatriote grecophénicien. Permalink 2020-07-15 13:54:33

#RWRI13, Connectivity, endcoronavirus.org, Contact Between People, virucide, Quillettists, #RiadPonzi, John Gray, Conferences, Sunstein, Superspreader, TRUE JUSTICE, Harari, Dawkins, Hanson, Thaler, George Steiner, Bureaucracy, Localism

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@Pascallisch Same is true for animals/evolved cognitive systems. Most false positives for predator detection in foliage are without consequence. A single false negative can be fatal. Raw accuracy is not the point. Permalink 9:11 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb If the word “panic” means “exaggerated” reaction, could be so at the individual level but NOT at the collective one. We MUST reduce connectivity for 20 d to avert a serious problem. We have survived for zillion years thanks to “irrational” “panics”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1235663235573067777?s=20 Permalink 8:30 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Saying the coronavirus panic is dumb is dumb. #PrecautionaryPrinciple #WittgensteinsRuler https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1236029449042198528 Permalink 7:56 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb “If you see fraud, & you don’t say fraud, you are a fraud”. I provided a list of #RiadPonzi & the banker’s partisans. They also engaged in smearing those who were opposed to paying. https://twitter.com/Nasser_Saidi/status/1236253217010450432 Permalink 4:32 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 1) Predictions don’t count. It’s their payoff, what you do w/them (x is not f(x) ). Academics don’t get it. “Speculators are not paid in true or false, but in $) 2) Indeed, I don’t run the account. But I save the tweets as I am too lazy to have a notebook. Thanks, Cetin. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1236080589897375749 Permalink 4:19 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Impressive: he was self-taught in Semitic languages. Like our @HsenAndil “Only autodidacts are free” (#Antifragile) pic.twitter.com/21brbso7PR Permalink 3:42 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@HomegrownJoan @nntaleb Nurses need help! https://mobile.twitter.com/NNUBonnie/status/1236019979125915651 https://twitter.com/NNUBonnie/status/1236019979125915651 Permalink 3:05 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb We hit 400 volunteers! https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1235644497528307719 Permalink 2:53 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb New job https://twitter.com/Imparziale4/status/1236061954772475904 Permalink 2:52 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@paulportesi @nntaleb Wittgenstein ruler https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1236029449042198528 Permalink 2:10 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Possibly the most erudite man in history. He taught himself Semitic Languages & translated Arabic proverbs into Latin. He knew Arabic, Greek, Latin, Hebrew, Syriac/Aramaic. He was to Montaigne (then considered a popularizing philistine) what Umberto Eco was to Fox News. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1235995793280163840 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WnvFGd2LXU”> pic.twitter.com/WnvFGd2LXU Permalink 11:53 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Just blocked a few who discuss this virus in terms of “predicting” & track record, as Phil the rat @PTetlock & others in the “forecasting” BS are presenting it. When you put your seat belt you aren’t “forecasting” a crash. When you lock your house you aren’t forecasting theft… Permalink 8:53 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@dancarna Localism in Seattle: the CDC was taking too long with multiple fumbles getting testing kits to us so we made our own. Now we’re able to test 1000 people per day https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/with-seattle-on-the-front-lines-of-covid-19-epidemic-university-of-washington-lab-given-emergency-approval-to-test-for-coronavirus/ Permalink 7:49 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@normonics As this thing evolves, remember: we did not hedge. We told you what we saw and what was coming if we failed to take action. Most are too busy hedging to get their head out of the sand. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208 Permalink 6:39 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@ole_b_peters New blog post. Probability weighting is one of those supposed cognitive biases that evaporate, as far as I can tell, when we think carefully about how to live within time. https://ergodicityeconomics.com/2020/03/06/probability-weighting-and-ergodicity-economics/ Permalink 6:26 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Actually we can show this identity is false: Negative log = log[abs[]]+ i \pi is not really a function, when we solve as 1 rather than 2 integrals we get a residual of \frac{\pi^3}{3}. Otherwise the left integral is something like -5/4 i zeta(3) “offset” by the second integral. Permalink 6:22 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LOCALISM ! Mervyn King understand that city-states shd deal directly with one another, not via some bureaucrat in Brussels/DC Athens had a deal w/Sidon: full rights in both places (at least in Athens, where resident Sidonese were not metics but citizens) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-06/mervyn-king-city-of-london-should-align-with-new-york-not-eu?srnd=premium Permalink 5:48 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, Friends, Now that you understand multiplicative and systemic effects, you can get why we worry about GMOs –but not small idiosyncratic risks. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/tuaCvEo9MO”> pic.twitter.com/tuaCvEo9MO Permalink 3:54 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@MKM_Abdul Precisely what @nntaleb wrote in Antifragile. https://twitter.com/annchildersmd/status/1235632957995372544 Permalink 2:16 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Thanks for the help. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1235644497528307719 Permalink 3:18 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Another blue check mark who doesn’t understand 1) multiplicative processes, 2) risk, 3) other stuff. Yet spreading danger. Another one. https://twitter.com/PeterDiamandis/status/1235682503605669888 Permalink 1:58 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why it is SELFISH to not worry more about the virus than other sources of risk even if it does not affect you as much. Individual precaution does not scale to collective precaution. [Adding to PRINCIPIA POLITICA] pic.twitter.com/F7jRKAQ4dz Permalink 12:27 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Maestro Statistician Andrew Gelman going (as usual) after nudgeboy @CassSunstein [If you want to be scared, imagine him or concoctista “Rationality Richard” @Richard_Thaler doing some nudging from the White House if Biden is elected.] https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/03/03/coronavirus-panic-news/ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yE3dwbGdNm”> pic.twitter.com/yE3dwbGdNm Permalink 10:50 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Tail hedge: he explains the logic of how to make a portfolio ergodic by cutting the left tail. https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1235316588640759808 Permalink 9:27 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb News is misleading. They froze the assets of bank OWNERS & managers. Permalink 6:54 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Grrrrrrrreat news! The Cascade has started. Next in line: #RiadPonzi (Fakkét l masb7a!) https://reut.rs/2Tq9FTC Permalink 6:40 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those in quarantine (self-imposed or involuntary), a though problem by @SrinivasR1729 pic.twitter.com/dMOcjFwhmJ Permalink 3:56 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Those who mistake absence of evidence for evidence of absence (like these morons) end up leaving the gene pool, except that here they endanger others. https://twitter.com/statesman/status/1235247099756892162 Permalink 10:39 AM – 4 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) Ricardo got the point but missed on its analytical consequences. pic.twitter.com/CLPZG4aOQS Permalink 8:24 AM – 4 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Its time to take action to stop COVID-19. Join our volunteers working at local and regional levels to help contain the virus. Email necsivolunteers@gmail.com with your state and county information to join the team @nntaleb Permalink 8:05 PM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And… when you finish one volume, start a new one. Technical Incerto Volume 2 pic.twitter.com/4tTlvPpwJ0 Permalink 9:11 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Add this smearer @Berti74 pic.twitter.com/KABktMe6hg Permalink 7:22 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Neo-nazis, like Quillettists, are statistically incompetent, parroting buzzwords like “PCA” Even if correct (it’s not),PCAs, 1)reflect recent endogamy, 2)distances need to be corrected. Entropy: If pple LOOK the same, they ARE the same. See my paper: https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2y3vZLjsRn”> pic.twitter.com/2y3vZLjsRn Permalink 6:28 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT #Lebanon Why is the most dangerous & incompetent central banker in history, #RiadPonzi, still in power? He owns a few journalists who smear those who mention him. Suspects: مرسيل غانم جورج غانم فيوليت بلعة فيليب ابي عقل موفق حرب ربيع الهبر بسام ابو زيد ميشال قنبور Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This music must be coming from deep Anatolia/East Med, before these languages came to the region. https://twitter.com/scmarco69/status/1234760835194593285?s=21 https://twitter.com/scmarco69/status/1234760835194593285 Permalink 4:21 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Yaneer explains the payoff from “panic”. If you reduce the connectivity between people the rate drops & we are nonlineaely out of the woods. Hint: the flu season typically starts & ends with the school year. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1234638804725751814 Permalink 5:00 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And the Ladino version of Jews from Turkey https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=234&v=uSOrl7l9lOg&feature=emb_logo ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/efMUnRAFYU”> pic.twitter.com/efMUnRAFYU Permalink 1:06 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Few Turks are aware of the fact that they are almost entirely converted Greeks/Armenians/Georgians/Levantines. “Languages travel, genes stay” https://twitter.com/C_Westling/status/1234581871142588421?s=20 Permalink 12:52 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Greek version: Ο ΓΙΑΤΡΟΣ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8_fyNHO7q0 Permalink 12:44 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And the Levantine versions of “Aman Doktor” سكابا يا دموع العين https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoQ53H3wyKU https://twitter.com/AlfredHarb/status/1234564732423680000?s=20 Permalink 12:09 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb EAST MED In spite of what Nordic supremacists have led people to believe, Greeks, Turks, Western Armenians, Anatolian Kurds, & Northern Syrians are the same people. They have the same soul. https://twitter.com/DIAS/status/1234256857360949249 Permalink 8:23 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@imleslahdin The way @nntaleb writes is the best model in the world. Not just the content, the whole open process. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1234439613642682373 Permalink 3:36 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Came home to find hard copies of the new book. Beautiful. This is print on demand, which costs $20 per copy to print (highest quality paper). The volume version should costs $5-7 to print & will be available in 2 months. Meanwhile PDF is free: https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Cc9Ll5G9FZ”> pic.twitter.com/Cc9Ll5G9FZ Permalink 3:25 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb John Gray is the real deal. https://twitter.com/davidsarac/status/1234138190048423937 Permalink 5:58 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@DIAS In Istanbul, some friends were singing an old Turkish song “Aman Doktor” in a restaurant. A Greek man walks up to the table and starts singing the same song in Greek (Greeks and Turks share many old folk songs) At the end The 2 men showed great respect to eachother wow pic.twitter.com/w2cWaliQyf Permalink 3:19 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb AVOID PSEUDO-EMPIRICISM Just realized that the point about @CassSunstein style of pseudo-empiricism (common to journos/psychologists of risk and “rationality”) is explicit in Skin In the Game, nontechnical! pic.twitter.com/eiUIldB24M Permalink 1:50 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb BLOCKING & FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION A twitter feed is NOT an open public forum. It is private. It is like your daily newspaper or your personal classroom. You are free to let in only qualified students. Otherwise noise will overtake your life. Permalink 12:01 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The wisest thing is to preemptively block every journalist — particularly UK and “science” ones. https://twitter.com/CalJamieson/status/1234202323834068993 Permalink 11:55 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Conferences are bad not because of how many people one connects with there, but because they move germs across the planet, de-localize the problem. https://twitter.com/TurgesonFerd/status/1234198348615147521?s=20 Permalink 11:34 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb One heuristic. Whenever you hear “evidence based”, expect probabilistic fraud. https://twitter.com/AlfonsoSpencer9/status/1234042331030007808 Permalink 10:57 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Blocked the fellow (among others who dangerously advocate “no worry”). Higher fatality rate can actually lower the risk of the disease, make tails thinner. Why? Simply because dead people tend to not take planes, trains subways, & cruises. Even in California. pic.twitter.com/z32uuRvbzg Permalink 10:18 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@perfexcellent When I see this, the more I wish people would follow @nntaleb’s advice that these bodies should be created with a non-negotiable expiry date. Permalink 8:14 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@KaMiller1 Bottom of page 2 above the comic: @nntaleb provides greatest footnote in the history of footnotes. You made my morning, Sir! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1234093143089434624 Permalink 5:47 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@TulsiGabbard .@realDonaldTrump Remember this? https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/375759718251503616 Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HfkamAmsAl Permalink 4:32 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those still unable to understand that death from multiplicative processes such as corona are NOT to be compared to those from thin-tailed sources, see Chapter 3 of new book: https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/iM79LwHxHZ”> pic.twitter.com/iM79LwHxHZ Permalink 4:28 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is not the base rate fucking fallacy. Please stop using names given by ignorant psychologists to statistical phenomena. Permalink 6:52 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb There is a marked-to-market problem. Low incidence = low testing. Only places that mark to market properly seem to be Singapore and Bella Italia. pic.twitter.com/seSrdFy3X8 Permalink 5:31 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The initial discussion was how intelligent people (in the real sense, that is, people who get stuff) don’t correlate much with those with high IQ scores (IQ scores select for idiots who are good test takers/prone to becoming bureaucrats and slaves of states & large corps). Permalink 4:43 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Why, among public figures, good looking people (actors) are not so intelligent, and intelligent people are not so good looking? (Posed by @joe_shipman) pic.twitter.com/idK1xOfeH2 Permalink 3:41 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam We are looking for volunteers for the coronavirus outbreak response. Please DM me if you are willing to help. In order for this to be stopped we need to work together to make it happen. Permalink 3:25 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The entire idea of the INCERTO is that uncertainty makes some decisions muuuuuuch easier. If I am “uncertain” about the skills of the pilot, I take another plane. If I am “uncertain” about an investment, I say no, etc. But Nudgeboy @CassSunstein suggests opposite. pic.twitter.com/I3jCFqSV6o Permalink 2:17 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The logical problem with IYIS: we don’t know the risk HENCE let’s ignore it. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1233757564921356290?s=20 Permalink 1:52 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Most places with “low incidence” are turning out to be places of *low testing*. Includes, of course, the United States. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1233784596241747968 Permalink 9:58 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The rate of infection drops when fewer people are in enclosed spaces. Singapore has too much AC in the summer. https://twitter.com/Kaschat1/status/1233771178357075968 Permalink 7:11 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@ggreenwald This Boston Globe column says Sanders’ attempt to win the Massachusetts primary is “very disrespectful” to Sen. Warren, a form of “major humiliation,” one that reveals an ugly character flaw of “unbridled ambition” that is “exceedingly off-putting” https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/02/28/opinion/bernie-sanders-goes-campaign-kill/ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zhetcArYUr”> pic.twitter.com/zhetcArYUr Permalink 6:47 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@kemaunders Thank you to the brilliant team (@nntaleb, Raphael Douady, @financequant, Alicia Bentham Williams, @normonics, @trishankkarthik, Arié H, and Tom Messina) and my fellow participants who made #RWRI 13 an experience that will touch many parts of life. My immediate to do list… Permalink 2:29 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@seandaken THANK YOU Alicia Bentham-Williams @nntaleb Raphael Douady @financequant @normonics @trishankkarthik @ariehaziza @vergilden and my fellow participants for an incredible week. Found my people. See you at a future #RWRI #RWRI13 #incerto #oneplusminusalpha #cutthetail Permalink 5:06 PM – 28 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Please use # #RWRI not just #RWRI13 https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1232668480153014272 Permalink 9:20 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 How simple rules build complex structures with Mathematica code by ⁦@financequant ⁩ Genome cannot explain the conplexity of life pic.twitter.com/QIMxe8e3aX Permalink 8:33 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Life isn’t about getting forecasts “right”; it is about navigating the environment and controlling it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:10 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The hidden mean: you know that real cases are (at best) equal or higher than reported. Reported = lower bound, not estimate. https://twitter.com/spwells/status/1232676620667891715 Permalink 6:44 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb No https://twitter.com/leominkus/status/1232419862879842306 Permalink 4:40 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@harshacoach People think of government as an abstract theological entity, not as a collection of individuals without skin in the game @nntaleb at #RWRI Permalink 4:38 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@DellAnnaLuca Tra l’altro, in questo thread qui sotto, la traduzione in italiano di alcuni documenti degli autori sopracitati: https://t.co/NGd4ef8Yc7 https://twitter.com/dellannaluca/status/1231140691020894208?s=21 Permalink 4:23 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@flaneurizer @nntaleb does not say directly, but China has same relationship with Hong Kong, milking it for the last 20 years. IYIs shout about China wanting to “crush” Hong Kong, but that’s BS. Just a mafioso maybe overplaying their hand. https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1232325743536984064 Permalink 1:59 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Atheists are just modern versions of religious fundamentalists: they both take religion too literally.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:18 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI https://twitter.com/nachooliveras/status/1232383749616230401 Permalink 4:29 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@RealJamesWoods Thank you, Doug. This is a brilliant assessment of our current situation with the #Wuhan #CoronaVirus. More importantly, as I understand it, taking strong, unpopular steps to implement strategic intervention before the pandemic is catastrophic in America is absolutely critical. https://twitter.com/ComplexSE/status/1232402538189787137 Permalink 12:58 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@bakingVC Forecasters don’t get rich by being right „on average“. Basically, that’s why there are no rich forecasters. #RWRI @nntaleb Permalink 12:38 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The exact discussion at #RWRI about people who don’t get that risk taking is good, under some conditions; and how to defeat sophistry like the one bt this ignorant fellow @realYuriOrlov that “no systemic multiplicative tail exposures” is not “take no risks” at all. https://twitter.com/realYuriOrlov/status/1232375927511769088 Permalink 10:59 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@normonics .@nntaleb currently discussing how social media is a return to a more natural communication pattern, a return from central media gatekeepers #RWRI #RWRI13 #lindy https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1188444355922661376 Permalink 8:53 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@JacobGnther1 “I live in a cave. There are no corners in my house…” #RWRI @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/8vE0Ler9gB Permalink 6:27 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@NachoOliveras Day 2 of #rwri13 just taking off! 1/n pic.twitter.com/bfWtYdYAgx Permalink 6:02 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@ErikByronTaylor Learned yesterday why guy in the slide is NOT irrational. (Took liberty of updating slide to read Corona instead of Ebola to make it more timely #photoshop) #RWRI #rwri13 pic.twitter.com/LT8TeKIc89 Permalink 4:58 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It is practically impossible to be more dangerously incompetent than this fellow. Impossible. https://twitter.com/jassemajaka/status/1232039206098259968 Permalink 4:03 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@seandaken Having a blast at #RWRI in NYC with @nntaleb and ~65 others pic.twitter.com/py5sUuIRyi Permalink 7:41 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 https://twitter.com/docroger/status/1231951997298970624 Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 https://twitter.com/DocRoger/status/1231951997298970624 Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @POTUS @realDonaldTrump @ErikSchatzker #Negotiations #TheArtoftheDeal #hitfirst pic.twitter.com/FOK8ZLvwwj Permalink 6:07 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I mean infections. Permalink 6:46 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The carpenter fallacy. To understand large gains/losses in a Casino roulette, you don’t ask a carpenter, but a probabilist. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1231768196371435520?s=20 Permalink 6:39 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Doctors and the #WHO don’t understand multiplication. They understand medicine (& addition), not multiplication. When we posted this on Jan 26, there were ~1,000 casualties. Today ~79,000. Unless we overreact, at that rate, in 1 month , can reach yuuuge numbers @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208 Permalink 6:38 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam It is time to stop thinking about pandemic response as a medical effort. Physicians are not trained to evaluate economic impacts, to impose actions for cities, and to engage in the social behavioral change that is needed. Permalink 6:29 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Plane and car crashes are neither multiplicative nor systemic. I block anyone comparing fear of multiplicative pandemics to car crashes. Besides, airplane safety is the result of mega-paranoia. Permalink 6:02 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/brucefenton/status/1231753275252318210?s=20 Permalink 5:53 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e Permalink 5:24 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done. It’s a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, “rationality”, subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it. Permalink 5:23 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Finally ideas on religions as non comparable items are starting to spread. pic.twitter.com/U93Bze7JbC Permalink 4:56 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb You notice that all these overeducated (miseducated) dangerous fools who don’t get precaution are academics into the nudge and “risk and rationality” business. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1231740183206338565?s=20 Permalink 4:47 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Dangerously incompetent man, this @alemannoEU, increasing risk for all of us. Overreacting early is a necessity. https://twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1231587280449654784 Permalink 4:34 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@Renegade_Masta @save_the_tweet #please Fucking idiot. Worst case =total destruction. Best case = inconvenience + being wrong. You take inconvenience every time. And yes I live in the area. There is no such thing as overreaction. @DellAnnaLuca @nntaleb @DrCirillo @yaneerbaryam Permalink 3:54 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@bantofu “We need randomness, mess, adventures, uncertainty, self-discovery, near-traumatic episodes, all these things that make life worth living, compared to the structured, fake, and ineffective life of an empty-suit CEO with a preset schedule and an alarm clock” Antifragile-@nntaleb Permalink 8:26 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Be predictable in granting rewards; unpredictable in delivering punishment. Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@ntarunkumar The really important persons in your life are the ones you shouldn’t have to impress. (A personal twist to something I read in @nntaleb ‘s insight on ethics – Bed of Procrustes – and dog ownership). Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb (Each in a different field: philosophers, historians, pol scientists) Erratum: Paul Veyne not Jules. Add: Jane Jacobs, James Scott, E Le Roy Ladurie, etc. Permalink 5:28 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Answer to who are the (recent) thinkers I don’t find BS vendors? In random order Saul Kripke, Derek Parfit, Elinor Ostrom, Fernand Braudel, Jules Veyne, Tom Holland, Peter Frankopan, Jean-François Revel, Michael Okeshott, Isaac Levi, Russ Roberts, Jon Elster, many,many, many! https://twitter.com/AndyPeyton/status/1231488319671934979 Permalink 4:44 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb From Volume 2 of the technical Incerto: Probabilility, Risk, and Convexity. Vol 1 maps to The Black Swan, Vol 2 maps to Antifragile, Vol 3 to Fooled by Randomness & Big Data [so far] https://twitter.com/JosephNWalker/status/1231514700120252416 Permalink 4:28 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@JosephNWalker Taleb’s problem with Knightian uncertainty is that there’s no such thing as non-Knightian uncertainty: pic.twitter.com/wtvTsIUcDk Permalink 1:42 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@alexandersquats https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1078655258354741248?s=19 Permalink 3:27 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb TRUE JUSTICE If you really want diversity & protection of minorities suffering workplace prejudice, stop chromo-categorizing — that fake unempirical business. Hire unattractive people. They are the one suffering the most, & deprived of attention. Permalink 3:25 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mistakes: ɕeeb shd be bayy el ɕαrd should be l ɕαrd Permalink 12:14 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb MED PHILOLOGY DUJOUR The Nicene creed in Lebanese… except that these Maronites have the Filoque “L jeeye mn el ɕeeb w el ɕeben” = “qui ex Patre Filioque procedit” Brilliant except for the heresy! https://twitter.com/henrizaq/status/1231296337494396928 Permalink 11:55 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb L’invidia ha gli occhi e la fortuna è cieca Permalink 8:49 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Gross inconsiderate errors: 1) Ghosn didn’t order an espresso in Arabic, but in the Lebanese Semitic dialect, 3/4 of a language away from Arabic. 2) Beirut was not the “Paris of the Middle East” but the Paris of the Mediterranean. https://www.wsj.com/articles/carlos-ghosns-new-life-in-exile-11582347707?shareToken=st2e30ccfa64584bf696da2e691ecca6d7 via @WSJ Permalink 8:45 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Envy is impossible to conceal. It manipulates you; like a tattoo on your forehead, visible to others but not to you. Permalink 8:40 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb A common mistranslation: \sigma is not necessarily volatility. https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/1231227077711552514 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/s4sKRf6mCl”> pic.twitter.com/s4sKRf6mCl Permalink 7:46 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb: “Only the hyperparanoid survive.” #RWRI https://twitter.com/richard49step/status/1231234461976735744 Permalink 7:12 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 7) Results are pouring in! For the Pareto IV (The semi Bell Shaped one-tailed power law. pic.twitter.com/ltRkllCOXR Permalink 3:22 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Taking a class on rationality and probability by @sapinker Pinker is equivalent to +Being taught foie gras preparation by a lifetime vegan. +Being taught random matrix theory by one of the Kardashians. https://twitter.com/FischerKing64/status/1230966699907674117 Permalink 1:40 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@EdmondShami That’s why you shouldn’t trust communists (since they call each other “rafiq”) The Bed of Procrustes, NNT pic.twitter.com/SyT1Bfpo4Z Permalink 1:11 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Hilarious! https://twitter.com/INVESTMENTSHULK/status/1230872613297229824 Permalink 12:48 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@Extrachelle 1 essential secret of a good cook: Generosity. Stinginess destroys recipes. Permalink 9:58 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@ole_b_peters It’s because reality unfolds over time, not over a statistical ensemble. @nntaleb just did a nice illustration of that, using Kelly-type arguments. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1229799216312180739 Permalink 9:50 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@ole_b_peters Speaking of insurance, here’s how Rothschild and Stiglitz modeled it in 1976. I think @mikeandallie would agree that Berkshire Hathaway would be bankrupt if they were to apply this theory to their insurance business. pic.twitter.com/tbNEzM2ibq Permalink 9:43 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 6) Predictably, for fat tails it is worrrrrrrrrrrrrrrse!!! pic.twitter.com/mDQgooVx7i Permalink 8:11 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Voila. Sans abonnement. pic.twitter.com/PJJlnm1Qjo Permalink 7:35 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 5) In continuous time: the lower bound for a real fair game, not a Mickey Mouse™ bet like this ignorant Thaler. pic.twitter.com/0xed0n6UQL Permalink 7:33 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb La photo est horrrrrrrible. https://w.lpnt.fr/2363621t #Postillon via @LePoint Permalink 3:53 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Je descends dans un hôtel à Paris où habitait André Malraux. Pas de plaque. Même les gens de l’hôtel ne le savent pas. https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1230818293734346756 Permalink 3:47 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam They let people off Diamond Princess, put them on planes and busses and sent them home. Amazing they thought a 14 day group “quarantine” would help. Instead it spread infection in the group. Shows they don’t understand how infections work. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/21/coronavirus-two-australians-evacuated-from-diamond-princess-test-positive-in-darwin https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1230681676617076736 Permalink 6:46 PM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 4) In other words a single bet per lifetime is linear, more than one bet requires compounding. Nudgeboy Richard Thaler must be stopped from messing with things he does not understand. Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) The explanation of why a FAIR bet will bankrupt you sequentially: AM-GM inequality and compounded returns are concave. pic.twitter.com/TJ6XwcImbz Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Back in New York after 7 weeks absence. pic.twitter.com/hefmQDpmJy Permalink 5:39 PM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The problem with Bloomberg is not his competence; he has the charisma of a plate of reheated-but-lukewarm unsalted fried cauliflowers. Permalink 9:12 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It does not mean: 1) Take investment advice from anyone who doesn’t have to work for a living. 2) Never take advice from those who work (note the “has to”). I am glad many rigor vigilantes are correcting errors by commentators. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1230035639070056448 Permalink 8:04 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I have been watching reschedulings for 38 years, since the 1982 LatAm debacle. (Remember I specialize in financial crises). No airline had to worry. @dan_azzi should not say these things without some empirical rigor. Permalink 8:01 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@Lucas_Erik_ Via twitter and his books, @nntaleb has shown me more truth in a month than all my 4 years of college classes combined. He teaches you how to think about something in a way where you can apply it to a different subject entirely. Teaching how to fish instead of giving a fish. https://twitter.com/gnpm72/status/1229539283293409280 Permalink 1:59 PM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb @beirut_banyan Actually, 1. Permalink 1:06 PM – 18 Feb 2020

@mcsorley_pete “Of what use is a philosopher who doesn’t hurt anybody’s feelings?” —Diogenes of Sinope pic.twitter.com/xh5h2y5qve Permalink 9:29 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) The Mathematica file. pic.twitter.com/WjrSbCvule Permalink 8:07 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb How you *will* eventually go bust on a fair bet: Explaining the Kelly/Shannon/Thorp result & beyond. (& why nudgeboy Richard Thaler @R_Thaler has a serious, serious problem, aside from his other mistakes ). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91IOwS0gf3g&feature=youtu.be Permalink 8:05 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) My heuristic: if a podcast has had someone like Sam Harris @SamHarrisOrg on, I avoid both listening to & participating in, it. It may be imperfect but the trick cleans up scientism, BS, & absence of scholarship. My allergic reactions to BS have been exacerbated with time. Permalink 7:09 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb As I said above in the thread, IYI robin @robinhanson will not infect himself. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1229768012598796288?s=20 Permalink 6:04 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I did not podcast in 2019; will do 1 in 2020 w/ @EconTalker on “Uninformative (less politely, “BS”) metrics in social science” (stat under fat tails, correlation BS, IQ, etc.), largely bec. of long private 2-way conversations. Will cover the new tech book. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 6:00 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The reason:filtering. I don’t take chances; I block quickly. The minute I smell sloppy reasoning. https://twitter.com/ptbrodie/status/1229489047921287168 Permalink 4:13 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Academics are usually all talk: @robinhanson is a bullshitter; don’t expect him to go infect himself. https://twitter.com/0neof1/status/1229596442098053120?s=20 Permalink 4:10 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 1 million depositors (erratum) Permalink 3:55 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb No, no, no. False claims on my behalf, @dan_azzi My point is quantitative: 12 Bil to pay next 2 y. If you don’t believe in miracles, you will certainly default on a depleted treasury! Meanwhile $4 bil to be paid for rich bondholders satisfy >1 billion depositors (# TK) https://twitter.com/dan_azzi/status/1228983243657162752 Permalink 1:44 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@jaszo “Fasting can turn any meal into a Michelin 3 star.” -@nntaleb Permalink 1:07 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@kantynho00 Thread by @nntaleb: Aside from how morally disgusting (science journalist & BS vendor) @RichardDawkins is, he doesn’t get dimensionality,exity & teleology: Unlike animals domesticated for a *specific* purpose, we, humans, would never know ahead o https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1229066756012085253.html Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb East Med Philology du Jour: Today is the day of Theodorus of Tyre. Did you ever wonder why the names Atallah and Atiyeh (as in Michael Atiyah) are only used by Levantine Christians)? Theodorus = gift of God. Atiyeh is the Canaanite version of Atallah Note also: Dorothy. pic.twitter.com/3ArgpYsZrt Permalink 4:18 AM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3ashu natrin? Ken lézeém n3mol rescheduling bi kénun 2bl l Eurobond l sebe2. 3ajjlo ya shabeb 2abl ma tkhrab aktar. https://twitter.com/neematfrem/status/1229045586739027973 Permalink 6:50 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Discovering Permalink 5:35 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Can you explain, @Fontainebleau ? https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/1228819678543347712 Permalink 5:33 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Now “Scrivener Richard” Dawkins is discovery casuistry -& as someone who spent three generations trained by Jesuits I find this insultingly amateurish. “I am not saying eugenics is good However, you know…” Who the fuck you tying to fool, Scriv Richard? https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689?s=21 https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1229060502984306689 Permalink 5:24 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Now “Scrivener Richard” Dawkins is discovery casuistry -& as someone who spent three generations trained by Jesuits I find this insultingly amateurish. “I am not saying eugenics is good However, you know…” Who the fuck you tying to fool, Scriv Richard? https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689?s=21 https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689 Permalink 5:24 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Same with bailouts. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1229070350308257792 Permalink 3:26 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Harari is a quack. https://twitter.com/GonzaQG/status/1229161201000730626?s=20 Permalink 1:51 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Harari’s public activities now occupy a staff of twelve. Mine: staff of 0. Why? Simply, I don’t do speaking and interviewing, etc. Except when very bored. pic.twitter.com/3fOdMwjOAI Permalink 1:44 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) Indeed my dimenionality/teleology argument converges to the Hayekian argument. https://twitter.com/luciansusanu/status/1229092373176692737?s=20 Permalink 9:26 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “If something looks irrational —and has been so for a long time —odds are you have a wrong definition of rationality.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:50 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) Human societies are multiscale: the properties of single individuals *do not* predict those of groups, something he never got with the selfish gene BS. Permalink 7:36 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Aside from how morally disgusting (science journalist & BS vendor) @RichardDawkins is, he doesn’t get dimensionality, complexity & teleology: Unlike animals domesticated for a *specific* purpose, we, humans, would never know ahead of time *what* to select for. https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1228943686953664512 Permalink 7:35 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 4) For instance Seneca’s fortune was 300M sesterces, which translates into 75 M dinarii… It takes yeaaaaars to clean up these details. pic.twitter.com/1kNHASqgej Permalink 6:17 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) Also used the wrong currency (“dirarii”), etc. Permalink 5:26 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The INCERTO has been continuously modified for (so far minor) errors. 1) ANTIFRAGILE:”Roman engineers forced to sleep under the bridge” was qualified as apocryphal, but architects in Asia Minor were still accountable. 2) Some refs to psych. progressively removed. Permalink 5:25 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Which is my way of announcing that Skin in the Game is out in paperback. https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/0425284646/ref=tmm_pap_title_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr= https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1227931283898150912 Permalink 2:27 PM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Belittling a powerful asshole = iconoclast. Belittling a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 2:23 PM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Ignore the bullshitters and note: 1) Bond defaults are routine, in 99.9 % of cases creditors help work out a solution. Ignore lurid non-collaborative cases by scaremongers (Argentina). 2) Gold belongs to the BDL, not to the state, which is shielded. #Lebanon #LebanonProtests Permalink 11:47 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mr. Hanson, I have called people “imbecile” for vastly more intelligent comments. Permalink 8:35 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Before bloviating on the consequences of a default, ask international bonds legal specialists like @camilleasleiman rather than bullshit artists. #Lebanon #LebanonProtests Permalink 8:20 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Eurobond payment must NOT be made 1) Insult to depositors (lack of symmetry).Phoenicians 2700 y. ago had more sophisticated rules of risk sharing! 2) Harms OTHER bondholders 3) Default is inevitable; fail EARLY, come CLEAN Those advocating payment are shills or LUNATICS Permalink 8:06 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Hanson, @robinhanson, you don’t seem to get what skin in the game means (nor do you have a faintest clue what betting is, another story). Skin in the game REQUIRES you to infect yourself NOW! https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1228701801949671425?s=20 Permalink 7:56 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb La bureaucratie est un outil pour couper certaines personnes des conséquences de leur actions. [Meilleure traduction] https://twitter.com/tututpouet/status/1228703994127712259 Permalink 7:38 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The best argument in favor of skin in the game: it can help us get rid of dangerous lunatics & riskblind IYIs before they harm the rest of mankind. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1228400896507367424 Permalink 7:23 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The dynamics above show how nudgeboy @R_Thaler can’t get it: + You MUST turn down most favorable odds because 1) life is not a one period model, and 2) they lead to total bankruptcy. + Mental accounting is an optimal strategy, not “irrational”. Permalink 6:42 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Fixed the colors in the graph pic.twitter.com/yn4BV6hOSS Permalink 4:53 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb What Samuelson didn’t get is that the Kelly point is the UPPER bound not necessarily the target –just as Shannon’s capacity. One can simply cut one’s portfolio in half and satisfy his criticism. https://twitter.com/migueldva/status/1228464540867682304?s=20 Permalink 5:14 PM – 14 Feb 2020

@PavelMordasov “It takes some humanity to feel sympathy for those less fortunate than us; but it takes honor to avoid envying those who are much luckier.” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/kGuWIWOSBu Permalink 8:23 AM – 13 Feb 2020

@DrMichaelBonner ‘The Last Empire of Iran’ is now in print! https://twitter.com/gorgiaspress/status/1227608394497974274 Permalink 8:49 AM – 12 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Trust those who are greedy for money a thousand times more than those who are greedy for credentials.” – @nntaleb Permalink 12:34 AM – 10 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Sometimes you run in daily life into people who heap abuse on the internet: they cower. Absence of #skininthegame is a problem. https://twitter.com/otrasenda_AC/status/1226523804148600834 Permalink 8:07 AM – 9 Feb 2020

@otrasenda_AC Maybe is also a lack of #skininthegame on social networks… If you act as an asshole in real live you might get a punch in the face pic.twitter.com/NCICnykixp Permalink 7:10 AM – 9 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Maestro A. Al-Jallad @Safaitic offering me his book in a café in Columbus OH. pic.twitter.com/V52ewrEmGK Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “The only people who think that real world experience doesn’t matters are those who never had real world experience.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:14 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #Localism (The fellow is making me aware of my own aphorisms) https://twitter.com/talebwisdom/status/1226110049967394816 Permalink 6:15 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb We need more data but that’s the way to do it: estimations from reliable subsamples. https://twitter.com/aledeniz/status/1226103425508790275 Permalink 4:56 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Getting out of control https://twitter.com/srutunda/status/1226111375426170881 Permalink 4:54 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@imleslahdin Left-Socialism-Brutalism Right-Traditionalist-Classical Polarizing. https://twitter.com/world_classico/status/1225942717374586882 Permalink 12:16 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@RonPaul Did you catch our interview with Democratic Party presidential candidate @TulsiGabbard? Find out what she thinks about her own party shutting her out of the debates: https://youtu.be/SlCeGEkWApk Permalink 3:42 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Behavioral economics can be summarized as follows: “humans are idiots”. My message: “Maybe, but behavioral economists are most certainly idiots”. Permalink 3:03 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb You guys are not getting the joke: I like NJ. It is just that I love NY and there are incompatibilities… Permalink 2:00 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@RonPaul The Only Person That Trump Should Fear On The Debate Stage Is Tulsi Gabbard Watch the whole show with @tulsigabbard here: https://youtu.be/SlCeGEkWApk ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/IfMwRFOijD”> pic.twitter.com/IfMwRFOijD Permalink 11:10 AM – 7 Feb 2020

Wolfram, Thaler, Monsanto, Gabbard, Localism, SALARYPEOPLE, Acroparasite, RENT SEEKERS | Twitter

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1) Never insult fallen entrepreneurs
2) Governement debt is worse than private debt because absence of skin in the game

— ThinkerView (@Thinker_View) May 1, 2019

@nntaleb Typos and explained the inequality pic.twitter.com/uMIqGjehWd Permalink 11:20 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb A familiar argument https://twitter.com/noamchomskyt/status/1128700073611792384 Permalink 10:10 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb QUESTION This friend of mine is writing a blurb for Stephen Wolfram. Wolfram is a genius but that’s the least uncommon of his attributes. Are there other successful living scientists who are so fully independent that they do everything on their own terms? Permalink 9:38 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb One possible approach pic.twitter.com/R5xZTiObNY Permalink 5:34 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb MATH RIDDLE DU JOUR. Since my name is on it, I am obligated to solve. pic.twitter.com/EKNkppK3fO Permalink 5:29 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb NUDGE SINISTER: How Behavioral Economics is Dangerous Verbalism. A project that will end up putting Nudgevillain @R_Thaler in his place. Filling in the math progressively. pic.twitter.com/zhJcYOyrZj Permalink 5:16 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb Note that Fleishman Hillard boasts “balancing 80% of interactions on Twitter”, which includes …this feed. pic.twitter.com/aQjr7PkH4w Permalink 4:41 AM – 15 May 2019

@EnlivenmentNow See this thread for details on this clear attempt by French intelligence services to intimidate journalists revealing information about links between France and Saudi Arabia. Seems to follow on intelligence agreement between the 2 countries https://twitter.com/oliviertesquet/status/1128351519907176450 CC: @nntaleb Permalink 4:17 AM – 15 May 2019

@mikeharrisNY Another interview of @nntaleb that must become mandatory course material in business schools. I will write something based on it from past experience about friends that lost nearly everything in previous market turmoil periods while the #IYI look at longer-term charts. $SPX https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1128289415871258625 Permalink 12:55 PM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb It appears that the Nudgevillain Richard Thaler @r_thaler blocked @blackswanman. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1128296265178124289 Permalink 10:24 AM – 14 May 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @paulkrugman @R_Thaler #IYIs #expertproblem pic.twitter.com/VifnmTYDeg Permalink 6:49 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb INTERVIEW WITH ERIK SCHATZKER 1) Do not insult fallen entrepreneurs 2) Governement debt is worse than private debt because absence of skin in the game 3) The imperative of tail risk hedging 4) Make money at your job, not in the markets https://youtu.be/4OfnsOT1ys8 Permalink 6:22 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Fleishman Hillard is under French government investigation in the Monsanto Roundup affair for having a “hit list” of people to discredit and smear. I was on their US list. My response to them. If you work for a lobbying firm, get out. Your job is unethical. pic.twitter.com/KqPdokNfTJ Permalink 5:19 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Imagine if we locked up warmongers… This is why I am supporting @TulsiGabbard even if I disagree with here socio-economic orientation. Just via negativa: avoidance of war is of yuuuuuuuuuuge benefits. https://twitter.com/EricSchmittNYT/status/1128086354708107264 Permalink 5:11 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Friends, thanks for the comments. The intro to @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition is complete. pic.twitter.com/TTDthRXCTd Permalink 5:00 AM – 14 May 2019

@GeertNoels Roundup is harmful for the environment and for your stock price… #monsanto #Bayer #Roundup @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/XCkEYjLsh7 Permalink 3:46 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto lost another case. I would love the chance to tear apart their epidemiological claims. pic.twitter.com/1Dml305mLX Permalink 2:19 PM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb Never complain about people, no matter how justified. Just drive them to complain about you. Permalink 1:33 PM – 13 May 2019

@financequant What can I say but that everyone needs to take this advice seriously. If it makes you uncomfortable or if you can’t seem to accept it, then you must consider that those feelings may arise precisely because you have exposed yourself to unacceptable levels of tail risk. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1127960959576940548 Permalink 1:19 PM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-05-09/taleb-says-fed-should-do-minimum-harm-and-expresses-his-concerns-about-deficits-video Permalink 8:37 AM – 13 May 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-05-09/taleb-says-fed-should-do-minimum-harm-and-expresses-his-concerns-about-deficits-video #blackswanman #theblackswanman @ErikSchatzker @wef #Davos #IYIs ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Cfv9JnxkLo”> pic.twitter.com/Cfv9JnxkLo Permalink 6:54 AM – 13 May 2019

@spyrosmakrid Thanks Nassim for your great Introduction. The Special Issue of the INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING devoted exclusively to the M4 Competition will be available in digital form in the middle of June and in printed form at the end of the summer. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1127912576543875072 Permalink 6:15 AM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb Intro to @spyrosmakrid M4 competition pic.twitter.com/gdOzYzoCdO Permalink 5:24 AM – 13 May 2019

@MaxAbrahms The US has a history of escalating against adversaries based on pretenses that turned out false. Pay attention to allegations of Iranian belligerence that are short on detail & walked back. This is one of the most critical functions of media it won’t do. https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/12/middleeast/uae-cargo-ship-sabotage-intl/index.html Permalink 2:41 AM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb Plus add the ?000,000 dead foreigners… Yet nobody addressed the source of Wahabism that spread AFTER 2001 thanks to the US support across madrassahs. Or Obama’s support to AlQaeda in Syria. Etc., etc. https://twitter.com/johncatsjr/status/1127692084021010434 Permalink 3:00 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 10 (not 9) Permalink 2:46 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 9 + That IQ tests measure “intelligence”. They mostly measure 1) obedience, 2) the unintelligence of IQ psychologists/psychometricians. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 Permalink 1:41 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 9 + That GMO (Genetic Modification) is “scientific”, that it is just “accelerated breeding”. It is scientism & not in the same class as breeding. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html Permalink 1:24 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 8 + That Modern Portfolio Theory (Markowitz) is imperfect. It is not imperfect, it is wrong, in the sense that you are better off not using it than using it. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ Permalink 1:22 PM – 12 May 2019

@john_f_hamer The opposite of a networker: a person who’s habitually nice to people who won’t be useful to him in the future. Permalink 7:11 AM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb If you need to post a screenshot to back-up your tweet (or aphorism), you’ve already lost the argument. Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb This makes sense! https://twitter.com/fareedzakaria/status/1126163836665511936 Permalink 4:20 PM – 11 May 2019

@jadabdala Heights of Canaan – Ehden under. Ampi, Chekka, Tripolis and the Mediterranean on the horizon. Bcharreh & Qodisha valley on my left. Arados on my right. Baal above. pic.twitter.com/eMPvWa09lt Permalink 8:22 AM – 11 May 2019

@nntaleb Ρωμιός εγώ γεννήθηκα, Ρωμιός θέμα να πεθάνω Permalink 5:12 AM – 11 May 2019

@nntaleb A rebirth of Hellenic identity among the North Syrian/North Lebanon “Rums” (My tribe). pic.twitter.com/HBTe3iGYxy Permalink 5:11 AM – 11 May 2019

@normonics All things considered, wild release GMO poses much vaster uncertainty and therefore risk than does increase of CO2 Not to trivialize the latter, just a reasonable assessment given the additional complexity when the released agents are novel and historyless living organisms Permalink 6:06 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb Weapon makers used to rely on the naturally militaristic right for shilling. They got smarter and figured out it’s more effective to use the so-called “center-left” such as the NYT, CNN, the despicable Thomas Friedman, and the democratic party. Why is why we NEED @TulsiGabbard ! Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb Weapon makers used to rely on the naturally militaristic right for shilling. They got smarter and figured out it’s more effective to use the so-called “center-left” such as the NYT, CNN, the despicable Thomas Friedman, and the democratic party. Why is why we NEED @TulsiGabbard ! Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb To explain LOCALISM: On August 6, 1806, the Holy Roman Empire was abolished. Goethe noted that day that the people staying in the same inn as him were far more interested in the quarrel between their coachman and the innkeeper than in its demise. #Lindy Permalink 1:13 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb 2-Napoleon wrote (dictated) 10-30 letters a day; he was maximally into micromanagement. While emperor, on the campaign before Austerlitz, he wrote to the governor of Genoa asking him to stop taking his mistress to the opera because of a prostitution record. Yet he did think big! Permalink 11:31 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb This is to express my warm support to @TulsiGabbard as a noble democratic candidate and the bestfor Peace. Only she has the guts to stand up against the sinister militaristic lobby! #Tulsi2020 #SALT2019 https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1125746099900141569 Permalink 10:16 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb 2/ while Mandeville, Smith, and complexity theory have shown that a good system is one that, by scale transformation, turns individual vice, biases, and quirks into collective virtue. Permalink 8:15 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb What socialists, academics, neocons, and other idiots share is the belief that it is the intentions, and not so much the results, that matter. Permalink 7:52 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb The Book Jacket Description https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fjDBYfOvVT”> pic.twitter.com/fjDBYfOvVT Permalink 6:37 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb J’ai été fiché par Fleishman Hillard. https://twitter.com/20hfrance2/status/1126555600501059584 Permalink 5:25 AM – 10 May 2019

@EconTalker My new animated video on how economists and journalists have distorted the evidence on growth and how it treats the poor and the middle class: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_i8Tq032JQ Permalink 2:54 PM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb For every successful entrepreneur you hear about on TV, there are 999 failed one eating canned sardines for dinner. Permalink 10:05 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb 7) Probabilistically risk takers earn LESS than salarypeople, particularly when you consider CEOs as nonrisktakers acroparasites. Permalink 9:35 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb 7) Probabilistically risk takers earn LESS than salarypeople, particularly when you consider CEOs as nonrisktakers acroparasites. Permalink 9:35 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb The Marxisto-Leftophrasts IYIs have lived under the narrative that employees are weak pple exploited by employers. Now we have robots, some made by robots. Why do they complain about the absence of exploitation? Permalink 7:02 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb 6) Socialists managed to drill in people’s heads the illusion that the money that pays for services is ultimately generated in Mars, that the industrial revolution was a British government project, & that … schoolteachers know anything about anything. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1126290004223750144 Permalink 6:09 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb Where did the money come from? Transfers from Mars? We need to find a cure for financial illiteracy. https://twitter.com/sailorupper/status/1126289023478136834 Permalink 5:57 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 5) Show me how a salaryperson can lose net money. Negative salary? https://twitter.com/CryptoPsyop/status/1126232433467301890 Permalink 4:43 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 4) With civil servants, what you see is what is there. With entrepreneurs, what you see is the subset of successful ones, not the entire cohort, which includes a huge majority of failures. Yet we need this risk-taking. Permalink 4:37 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 3) The CEO of the company is not the entrepreneur w/skin in the game, but often some acroparasite actor milking the system. Permalink 4:03 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 2) And remember that it is risk takers and the mechanism of risk-taking that pulled more than a billion people out of poverty, not the design of some NGOer, civil servant, or some other acroparasite on a steady salary. Gabish? Permalink 3:03 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb A short quiz in memory of Alexander Bogomolny @SvetlanaBogom13 pic.twitter.com/L3XCdurmq5 Permalink 2:46 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb If there were no entrepreneurs and risk takers … (I am getting idiots commenting on salaries without thinking in higher order terms.) Permalink 1:58 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb ATTENTION SALARYPEOPLE Next Friday when your guaranteed monthly paycheck is deposited, take a moment of gratitude for the entrepreneurs who took the risks so you get this risk-free income. Shaming an risk-taker for losing money is like shaming a soldier for losing a limb. Permalink 1:31 PM – 8 May 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio #OceanX #allweather #riskparity #riskyparity pic.twitter.com/r7BZUNiWVY Permalink 12:09 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb You don’t show on your tax return the losses of others. [Should I lose patience with NYT-induced financial illiteracy? ] https://twitter.com/aledussaillant/status/1126182246459875330 Permalink 11:06 AM – 8 May 2019

@PaulMMCooper Breathtaking aerial photography of the Roman ruins of Baalbek in Lebanon, by @rami_rizk. pic.twitter.com/LarhOPXaaK Permalink 7:58 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb This is to show @spyrosmakrid How someone’s small miscalibration in probability translate into miscalibration in forecasting the corresponding deviation. Something Phil-the-Rat Tetlock @Ptetlock has been trying to hide. pic.twitter.com/TiMcN77qpk Permalink 6:00 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb Medicine is for the very ill, never the healthy. In #Antifragile, there is the assertion that there has been practically NOTHING made by humans to “improve” on nature or help with shortcuts that did not end up harming with UNSEEN side effects. #HiddenRisk https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1125725279090032640 Permalink 4:37 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb In Antifragile… https://twitter.com/ryanpflynn/status/1125647039365148672 Permalink 4:11 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb Getting close to finishing my paper for the very patient @spyrosmakrid showing why the “prediction” and “superforecaster” theories (@PTetlock-style) business is BS (but in polite words). https://www.academia.edu/38962327/On_the_Difference_between_Forecasting_and_Real_Life_Payoffs ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/CNxSLCc0tI”> pic.twitter.com/CNxSLCc0tI Permalink 3:48 AM – 7 May 2019

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb recommends buying six copies of this book, just in case you need to bribe someone https://www.amazon.com/Elements-Information-Theory-Telecommunications-Processing/dp/0471241954 Permalink 3:07 PM – 6 May 2019

@nntaleb Today is my 14th and last lecktshur for 2019. Back next Feb. pic.twitter.com/aTUb9ksEpu Permalink 1:08 PM – 6 May 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic is yet again about #IQ for this I put the blame on @nntaleb, who sparked off my current “obsession” This strip was also inspired by @normonics and @paulportesi [defining intelligence, 1 of 2] For more visit http://www.offshorecomic.com ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/SjgFWfuMFb”> pic.twitter.com/SjgFWfuMFb Permalink 11:03 AM – 6 May 2019

@GregorySMcMurry People used to accept this up until recently https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1125301469488517120 Permalink 7:22 AM – 6 May 2019

@antifragi7 If you wanna learn more about this idiotic fragilista read @nntaleb ‘s Antifragile. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile https://twitter.com/TheBlock__/status/1125370104521330688 Permalink 6:47 AM – 6 May 2019

@nntaleb If you let people think that you’re a total a**hole, you’ll never have to be one. Permalink 4:14 AM – 6 May 2019

@nntaleb BYZANTINE REAL HISTORY: Debunking Myths about the Arab Invasion of the Levant https://www.facebook.com/ByzantineRealHistory/posts/835964876782564?__xts__[0]=68.ARCSTgFrFlpkQnvfzyoA6NGRetEXm_bbubp_ihAOyIpmLEBW_k3Y2OqmIXhLckOhy6gvNxJUEqtX7skC75VjIs6fsTsDSjShkxtkvWzn4BEg8kSAAzXs_oYORlvY9GdBNZQnjxQP-9Imzm5faVzED474SEjhpkgltYPhRom4_rkHctURNVWJg8KAo-xERehaaZrZfisnzirgxdKLE4nzXpKLEDPa0ALUeyJQItAXJVGF19PduJ7hIsmj9rR4cYbg89KpIHi7IC2h6qOIHbFQbp9P49w1GN04ukvSIjMIBSEmNGNIiPq-GKZ_MfVSlGOiLb7shVuiEtR4UyaVWCuKA0o&__tn__=-R Permalink 2:55 PM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/horrdorr/status/1125116447305265152 Permalink 12:22 PM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb 2/ It is much easier for a criminal to fake being an honest person than for an honest person to fake being a criminal. Likewise it is easier for a fat-tailed distribution to fake being thin tailed than for a thin-tailed distributions to fake being fat tailed. Permalink 10:29 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb EXCELLENT QUESTION FROM A READER pic.twitter.com/lECfkVeABM Permalink 10:25 AM – 5 May 2019

@_benoux_ Nice! Κρατοπαράσιτον. Κρατοπαρασιτικόν. Κρατοπαρασιτικός. Looks so natural it feels it already exists in greek. Permalink 9:55 AM – 5 May 2019

@AnarContrarian “The story of the nation-State is that of the concentration and magnification of human errors. Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility” -@nntaleb Permalink 9:37 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb Fundamentally, the word shd be about parasites without #skininthegame Permalink 8:53 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb Which is why tipping is dynamic not static! https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/1124765420106473472 Permalink 8:39 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb OK, July 30: Incerto Box Set https://www.amazon.com/dp/198481981X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_H6VZCb19XZK37 via @amazon Permalink 8:18 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb Parasitism is the clearest @JoshHochschild. We can alter it or find synonyms. We need @_benoux_’s Hellenicism. Permalink 5:29 AM – 5 May 2019

@bpaf was thinking about that passage the other day as it extends in the prophetic footnote cfr https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1114184010551496705 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Y10aJgH6Cm”> pic.twitter.com/Y10aJgH6Cm Permalink 5:24 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb We need a Graeco-Roman sounding name for “rent seeking” and “rent seekers”; something that one does not have to translate into French as “rent seeking” can be ambiguous. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1014119297835257857?s=21 Permalink 4:51 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb 2/2 Being hated by the rentseeker is equivalent to being loved by the righteous. (A confirmation (here @WGoetzmann) I am doing something right.) pic.twitter.com/xukzi93vi0 Permalink 12:49 PM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb Actually, I can be mean. Very mean. With some. But angry? Rarely. 1/2 https://twitter.com/ryanstephens/status/1124740868488015874 Permalink 12:44 PM – 4 May 2019

@jstarklefkowitz “In the classroom the ruler measures the table in the real world the table measures the ruler”. Sans skin in the game, critics opinions only tell you about the critics themselves never about the thing they are criticizing. Permalink 11:50 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb NAPOLEON THREAD, seen w/modern eyes. 1-Napoleon & the English talked past one another. Napoleon liked glory, administration, image, ideas, top-down nations, top-down code. The English liked commerce & wd have left him alone if he didn’t heavily tax their good for pass through. pic.twitter.com/kYHE6ybzrS Permalink 11:34 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb 3) Easy to deconvert someone from State worship via Martin Luther’s argument that “God & clergy are different “tings””. Show them that bureaucrats-cronies-nudgeboys-virtue merchants & “State” aren’t the same “ting” & “the State is among us”. Keep the State distributed! #Localism pic.twitter.com/lmgVMXYQY7 Permalink 5:59 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb The problem isn’t inequality, it’s RENT SEEKERS without skin in the game. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46 Permalink 5:23 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb RENT SEEKERS We need to make pple aware that discontent related to inequality is mainly discontent about rent seeking and rent seekers. Prevent rent seekers from exploiting this discontent by making it look like society need more IYIs like them to solve it. #GiletJaunes Permalink 5:20 AM – 4 May 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Joe Rogan!!! I am also hopping on the Tulsi train. I thought I would never vote again… but she will save lives and not surround herself with neocon assholes. https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1124353541953474560 Permalink 1:28 AM – 4 May 2019

@TalebWisdom “To establish societal symmetry: The bigotteer needs to be penalized the same as the bigot. The false accuser needs to be penalized as if he committed the crime himself (Hammurabi). etc.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #symmetry Permalink 12:43 AM – 4 May 2019

@mark_terlesky I’m a fmr journo. Hold a “MJ” fr UC Berkeley. I recently made @nntaleb ‘s above quote the lead pic to my alumnus profile. Hope I don’t get dis-owned by Cal’s SOJ. If I do, fine. I went on to making lots of $ in the law, HR, small biz, & on @Nadex. Thx @nntaleb for all you do! https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1122704840659013639 Permalink 6:41 PM – 3 May 2019

@nntalebbot “A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a “solution” and creates a problem.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 PM – 2 May 2019

@awells10000 Unequivocally my absolute favorite graphic. Of all time. EVER. Brilliance by @dhavalpanchal @nntaleb @financequant #realworldrisk #bonds #longvol #convexity pic.twitter.com/T67LdksQHA Permalink 3:33 PM – 2 May 2019

@FattestFatTony Not knowin crapola is better than knowin alotta crapola… Permalink 3:25 PM – 2 May 2019

@TulsiGabbard Neocons/Neolibs & MSM all sing from the same songsheet: War war war!!! Trump never gets positive media unless he’s threatening war/carrying out military action. Today, Venezuela. Tomorrow, Iran? Cuba? Who’s next? No wonder NK won’t give up their nukes. https://tulsi.to/support ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/K4zAIk5WhN”> pic.twitter.com/K4zAIk5WhN Permalink 5:00 AM – 2 May 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Fat Tony nails it again… with plenty of characters to spare https://twitter.com/fattestfattony/status/1123753823254847493 Permalink 2:45 AM – 2 May 2019

@nntaleb Great news: @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition replicates real life by evaluating Abs[forecast-out of sample realization], not probabilities in {0,1}. Replicates accuracy in getting real life payoffs. Will revise as there is verbalistic “forecasting” (a la @Ptetlock) and M4 price. Permalink 3:31 PM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb “If my enemies knew me better they’d hate me even more” [Bed of Procrustes] https://twitter.com/bryan_caplan/status/1123683202525216768 Permalink 1:24 PM – 1 May 2019

@JeanDmello Most of us are non-violent, only because we are outsourcing our violence. Permalink 11:39 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb Bayer’s stock is not higher on the news. The market knows the EPA is full of balloney; it is aware that Monsanto wrote too many EPA memos. https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1123593364467793920 Permalink 11:13 AM – 1 May 2019

@Wolfram_Alpha Let’s kick off our anniversary with some cake! Can you figure this out? RT and reply with your answer. #WolframAlpha10 pic.twitter.com/fegGhj4kwL Permalink 10:13 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb The ability to read the Economist is the reason some people get poor. “The ability to digest milk may explain how Europe got rich”… The Economist pic.twitter.com/PAOn52rRHi Permalink 8:51 AM – 1 May 2019

@Thinker_View pic.twitter.com/DmGkrVLH6n Permalink 8:30 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb Celebrating the resurrection with some #skininthegame https://twitter.com/kritikopoulos/status/1123488943905955845 Permalink 6:19 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb MISSPECIFYING HAYEK: Prediction markets are not commercial markets. pic.twitter.com/Fq6Ns2psbO Permalink 6:13 AM – 1 May 2019

@justinowings A case study in unintended consequences with 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order effects: 1950s: Killing mosquitoes in Borneo solved malaria problem but led to typhoid and collapsing roofs—by killing roaches, lizards, and cats, which helped caterpillars and rats. https://m.sfgate.com/homeandgarden/article/Take-a-lesson-from-Borneo-go-easy-on-the-bug-2546186.php ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ViIwztIRHz”> pic.twitter.com/ViIwztIRHz Permalink 5:54 AM – 1 May 2019

@Thinker_View On vous aime ! Merci ! pic.twitter.com/Yxtkeso5cO Permalink 4:49 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb Presenting the paper in 5 min at the NY quant seminar and need a new title… pic.twitter.com/orR4nq8YgO Permalink 3:52 PM – 30 Apr 2019

@ladyinmedicine Remember when twitter suspended my account for saying “the MB is a terrorist organization”? https://twitter.com/imamofpeace/status/1123228044947120128 Permalink 9:05 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@ladyinmedicine Remember when twitter suspended my account for saying “the MB is a terrorist organization”? https://twitter.com/imamofpeace/status/1123228044947120128 Permalink 9:05 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@Jonassibony #Protosemitic *ḥimār ‘donkey’ #Akkadian imēru , #Ugaritic ḥimāru #Phoenician ḥmūr #Hebrew #Samaritan ‘émur ࠇࠌࠅࠓ #Tiberian ḥămōr חֲמוֹר #Aramaic #Syriac ḥmārā ܚܡܵܪܵܐ #Jewish ḥămārā חֲמָרָא #Arabic ḥimār حِمار #Sabaic ḥmr #asemiticwordaday Permalink 5:50 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Syrian refugees at ~ 25% of the pop. in Lebanon. Syria is now SAFE. But the US State Dept’s Satterfield opposes their repatriation as “it would legitimize Assad”. IYI Satterfield shd take some in his house. Shd Lebanese pay the price for HIS bone w/Assad? #SkinintheGame #Ethics pic.twitter.com/mwlramce34 Permalink 4:50 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@digvijoy_c A concept @nntaleb dedicated his life to. https://twitter.com/then_there_was/status/1122542048689524742 Permalink 9:47 PM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Which title is better? A +One Does Not Eat Forecasts B +Where are the Great Forecasters’ Yachts? Permalink 7:04 PM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Which title is better? A +One Does Not Eat Forecasts B +Where are the Great Forecasters’ Yachts? Permalink 7:04 PM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Now after the lamentations, the Great Doxology, bilingual by chanted by Greeks and Lebanese. https://youtu.be/COwJtmZ6z8Q Permalink 8:14 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@NonMeek It’s so insightful that I had to draw a rare [for me] Sunday comic strip about it. Hopefully it does your piece justice … can’t help you with the math though ;-) (0, 1) ≠ (-∞, ∞), #LudicFallacy pic.twitter.com/lHwwTF6oOg Permalink 8:06 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@kivil Ancient wisdom resonates with @nntaleb https://twitter.com/UnwobblingPivot/status/1122874664634785794 Permalink 7:51 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 7 +That you need to be a good “forecaster” to perform well. In fact you may NEED to be a bad forecaster to survive, get rich, etc. +Probability is a nonseparable kernel inside an integral. Most of the psych lit is BS https://www.academia.edu/38962327/_One_Does_Not_Eat_Forecasts_On_the_Difference_between_Forecasting_and_Real_Life_Payoffs?source=swp_share Permalink 5:47 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 6 + Lebanese is a standalone Semitic language; it and Arabic are separate languages, not mutually understandable, no matter how much the “Arabistas” try to smoke you with pseudoscientific claims. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c Permalink 5:34 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@LeesSebastian “Administrators everywhere on the planet, in all businesses and pursuits, and at all times in history, have been the plague.” – @nntaleb Re-reading SITG – This quote is fucking awesome, and rings very very true. Permalink 2:55 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Hanaia is Aramaic for “Abdallah” or “Ovadia” or “Theophilus” or “Amadeus”, no? https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1122577518320467969 Permalink 1:50 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb FRIENDS, the first draft for comments. “One Does Not Eat Forecasts”: On the Difference between Forecasting and Real Life Payoffs @spyrosmakrid https://www.academia.edu/38962327/_One_Does_Not_Eat_Forecasts_On_the_Difference_between_Forecasting_and_Real_Life_Payoffs?source=swp_share via @academia Permalink 12:49 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb FRIENDS, the first draft for comments. “One Does Not Eat Forecasts”: On the Difference between Forecasting and Real Life Payoffs @spyrosmakrid https://www.academia.edu/38962327/_One_Does_Not_Eat_Forecasts_On_the_Difference_between_Forecasting_and_Real_Life_Payoffs?source=swp_share via @academia Permalink 12:49 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb THE GOOD NEWS OF MACHINE LEARNING: How we can replace the verbalistic “prediction” (or, worse “belief”) with a more rigorous payoff function and how ReLu or call options can express ALL nonlinear payoffs (universal approximation theorem) pic.twitter.com/Pw6PkVVP3F Permalink 12:24 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@RichardHanania The university is now an institution run by and for administrators pic.twitter.com/KxYfStgFTy Permalink 12:05 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@aaronjmate 1/ If YouTube were to recommend your show, it’d be recommending the leading purveyor of now debunked Trump-Russia conspiracy theories, falsehoods & innuendo of the last 2+ years. Here’s a sample: Permalink 10:23 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb How to commit statistical BS-vending and not realize it. Please keep journos out of “slopes” and “trends” (as well as other things) (The slope is a random variable with high variance) https://twitter.com/ritholtz/status/1122441842719481857 Permalink 8:09 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “AN ENEMY is someone in a zero-sum game, the representation bureaucrats, geopoliticians, journos & low-IQ pol “scientists” have of the world. A COMPETITOR is someone who helps the system stay non-zero sum & prevents monopolies.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 4:33 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@amaltaash (34/35) General Two gems from @nntaleb: -Never compare thin-tailed variables with fat-tailed ones: e.g. # of ppl dying in their bathtubs vs killed by terrorists per year. -IQ is a filter at the low end, to help figure out if someone has a learning/thinking disability. That’s it Permalink 2:12 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Guru, this is exactly my point about Fake News. Bottom up fake news is better than authoritarian top down fake news… Permalink 2:57 PM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile how Orthodox Christians in North Syria celebrate the resurrection: https://youtu.be/Z1aQKTqVpeY Permalink 2:32 PM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb SECOND DISCLAIMER: The victim was arrested at 16, beheaded at 21. Permalink 2:22 PM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And Saudi Barbaria beheaded a total of 37 people, one of whom was crucified. Permalink 10:54 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb DISCLAIMER: It appears that the picture comes from a different execution (perhaps ISIS, another Wahabi group). But Saudi Barbaria effectively executed a 16 y.o. Shiite by beheading. Permalink 10:06 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb A Shiite 16-Year-Old https://twitter.com/RonPaulInstitut/status/1122177096456048641 Permalink 9:43 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Χριστός ἀνέστη! Permalink 6:35 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Some have serious reading comprehension. The point is not that Obama did nothing scandalous. The point is that he was NOT caught or the media did not make a big deal. (Sorry, but I block idiots to avoid degrading the discussion. Nothing personal). Permalink 6:32 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Obama had no scandal, behaved w/dignity & extreme decorum. But -Increased centralization, bureaucratism, faught federalism -Crony capitalism, bankers > $$ than 2006 -Intrusive state w/evil nudgeboys Sunstein/Thaler, IYIs -Blew up Lybia, Syria, exterminated Syrian Christians… https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1113523235503706112 Permalink 6:01 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb A book is summarizable degree n when the 2nd, 3rd,…, up the nth reading reveal things you did not get at the first reading. (A book is summarizable degree 0 when the first reading reveals nothing you didn’t get by not reading.) Permalink 5:17 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb AXION ESTIN! Good Friday Chants in Graeco-Arabic, the 3 Stasis. At 7:44 the Generation chant that ancestors have been reciting for almost 2 millennia, promising to pass on to the next generation. https://youtu.be/6QWhBaQ25Kk via @YouTube Permalink 1:18 PM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb (Today is Orthodox Good Friday) Another Greco-Arabic chant from Lebanon https://youtu.be/_-EB6g5pIbA Permalink 11:27 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Megali Paraskevi in Greco-Arabic. Fairuz- Η ζωή εν τάφω https://youtu.be/xiE-biR9USU via @YouTube Permalink 10:17 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Which also explains why Mr @WGoetzman (a “finance” professor) has a severe technical flaw in almost all of his work involving tails & investor “belief”. Among other problems of course. https://twitter.com/WGoetzmann/status/730379452169867264 Permalink 7:36 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Bastiat #SeenAndUnseen pic.twitter.com/KxSzxJfAvI Permalink 6:56 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@thackerpd .@Reuters editor @williamsmjw says he stands behind Kelland’s reporting, as does “Ethics Editor” @AlixFreedman This is a joke. @duffwilson @AmandaBecker @aterkel @cgseife @charlesornstein @CharlesPPierce @sfoucart @jackshafer @mlcalderone https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1121766540372791296 Permalink 6:25 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie A happy accident this morning as @nntaleb shares a paper on the exact topic I’m staring at my screen thinking about. pic.twitter.com/OYM6NReNCx Permalink 6:08 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb You don’t see much of the snow from Beirut itself, you need to be >½ mile away from the Phoenician coast. Permalink 5:57 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb (cont) pic.twitter.com/id9nVTVQm9 Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Renamed the paper: “One Cannot Eat Forecasts”. New version. pic.twitter.com/BLRxp3Wzsv Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Religio as counter to superstitio https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e Permalink 1:26 PM – 25 Apr 2019

@jeitoapp Bar in London that won “just about every award going” closes less than 1 year after. Where did I hear this before? #SkinInTheGame @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/9KERqJSnCV Permalink 10:49 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@NonMeek Circular reasoning is still reasoning. The inherent circularity of #IQ scores captured in a cartoon strip and a @nntaleb tweet [IQ correlates, part 3 of x]. #psychology #psychometrics pic.twitter.com/EelH5YSidV Permalink 9:59 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Scientific papers should be written like car manuals. No prose, just precision. Showing psychologists have NO IDEA about “overestimation” of tail probabilities, (technical version of my lecktshur at the great @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition). pic.twitter.com/DXUbsMTV4F Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Beirut seen from the water. The Phoenician coast below Mount Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/S7YAGWqpsF Permalink 8:26 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@JamesMarsh79 Proves @nntaleb point. Large caps skewed to downside and small to the upside https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1121395240257097728 Permalink 8:11 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Our precautionary principle tried to show this possibility to GMO idiots who believe that science=scientism. https://twitter.com/nature/status/1121227592475000832 Permalink 4:24 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb No kidding? https://twitter.com/nature/status/1121227592475000832 Permalink 1:37 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb No butter! Permalink 5:45 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Two more days of Orthodox lent: vegan. Antonio Spadaro does wonders with the basic ingredients. pic.twitter.com/QYs4MPD282 Permalink 5:44 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@TarekMilleron Muilenburg’s denial of fault is hollow. Would he put his family on the “old” #737max, with randomly-selected 737-rated commercial pilots, bust off the relevant angle-of-attack sensor and take off? Repeat x10? No #skininthegame yet he subjected passengers and crew to that risk. Permalink 5:25 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@normonics This is enlightening. In fat-tailed domain conditional expectation is greater than conditional threshold K this drags one’s exposure even further into the tails, breaking the simplistic assumptions that provide pseudo-sophistication of recipe-users https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1121033494623334400 Permalink 12:08 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb For example: why we humans do NOT overestimate small probabilities as stated in most cases. pic.twitter.com/Z2ScOIajt0 Permalink 5:49 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb What to study in college? What doesn’t bore you. (but the waist is still too thin) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1121029802792714240 Permalink 5:48 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #college #guidance #counselor pic.twitter.com/6QVhXWpFaj Permalink 5:35 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@TheBondFreak @nntaleb, seems she’s getting it right. https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/1121025866501279744 Permalink 5:28 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists and Probability Why there is no “overestimation” of small probabilities (in most cases) and psychologists misunderstood the real distributions. PARANOIA pays! pic.twitter.com/ZyZ2eMIp2i Permalink 5:05 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@InvestorSwedish @nntaleb thanks a million for your Incerto series! It’s been great for questioning much that I’ve previously been taking for granted – for investing, and life in general, too. Here’s my humble contribution to your paradigm-challenging series: https://youtu.be/Av7kpPJqac0 via @YouTube Permalink 3:55 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Delenda Saudi Barbaria https://twitter.com/marwa__osman/status/1120871400263356417 Permalink 3:33 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@focusontheb This is one of @nntaleb’s points that seems hard for a lot of people (me too!) to grasp: if something works, it can’t really be considered dumb. “Oh Mike! You misspelled that word!” “Oh Mike! How do you get so much engagement?” Same person Permalink 2:38 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@Steve_Sailer In the Current Year, do any lectures on “Whiteness” not consist of racist hate speech? Perhaps the keynote address at a convention of laundry detergent chemists? @wmarybeard https://twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/1112309521702178817 Permalink 3:47 PM – 23 Apr 2019

Harris, Shermer, Reviews, SKIN IN THE GAME, John Gray, Gini Estimation, Nate Silver, Alexander Bogomolny, Tetlock, Thaler | Twitter

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The TIMES has a real review, first one in which the journalist doesn't try to take revenge against author for dissing his profession.

https://t.co/J1SGbsrxT1

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) February 24, 2018

@nntaleb Squid Ink pic.twitter.com/gmv3tadPcm Permalink 4:46 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) For some background, BS Vendor Sam Harris called me “insufferable”, then tried to make friends, then called me “insufferable” again after I refused (I am intolerant of BS). Permalink 2:42 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@BogeJan Calling @nntaleb arrogant because he calls you out on your BS is complete f-ing horseshit. He is extremely friendly and down to earth. He took the time to chat with me, a random fan, for a long time while he was visiting Norway, and even paid for my lunch! Opposite of arrogant! Permalink 2:17 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Gabish is the recreated pronounciation of Siculo-Galabrez (Calabrese); the “p” used to sound like a “b” and the “g” like a Semitic kof, a hard K, from Punic. Much like capicoli is “gabagool”. Gabish? Permalink 1:48 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb When I see fraud I say fraud. When I see BS I shout BS. NO intimidation, no smear campaign, no mobbing by fraudsters like Shermer, Harris et al. will make me stop. The more RISK I take for my opinions, the more HONORABLE I feel. #SkinintheGame. Gabish?https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/967825791416385536 Permalink 12:42 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Just to insist that those Arabists who say that there was no such thing as Phoenicia as a placename are also probably not aware of the existence of such things as ancient authors. Permalink 11:56 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Pliny’s Natural History called the Levant strip “The Phoenician Sea”. Arabs later called the Med بحر الروم but like the “Persian” Gulf (=>”Arabian”) the name got redacted from texts. Brilliant idea @BellesLettresEd: superposed not juxtaposed bilingual txts pic.twitter.com/xrFwQMYOUu Permalink 11:45 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@SindreSN As a person working in credit risk management I could easily just look at @nntaleb’s books as insulting. But «insults» that are well argued for, thought through and accompanied by real life examples are the most valuable input I can get.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/967784283174817793 Permalink 9:38 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I just published “The Controversy around Skin in the Game”https://medium.com/p/the-controversy-around-skin-in-the-game-6d46416ee47f Permalink 8:16 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And Phil Coggan @econbuttonwood is thoughtful but didn’t realize my style has… not changed from when my message was better for him. I have always been iconoclastic –except my target is now journos. pic.twitter.com/QspWMY5qmi Permalink 7:32 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Actually, I just read the review line by line. Idiot-Shermer cherry-picks because the article continues: “All this is a shame, because the first, submerged Mr Taleb is still audible, and still has interesting things to say. ” Permalink 7:16 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb To explain it in my terms: the selfish gene is NOT necessarily ergodic (in practice will almost never be). Group selection is. Permalink 6:49 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb E.O. Wilson calls Dawkins a journalist, particularly after the reaction to the @DrMANowak paper: Dawkins & Pinker ignored the math. Shermer is a BS vendor; he doesn’t know science is based on rigor & statistical significance not multiplication of anecdotal descriptive graphs. Permalink 6:43 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath The lost boarding pass. An old question but with an upcoming follow-up https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/LostPass.shtml ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/C7QokxE7AN”> pic.twitter.com/C7QokxE7AN Permalink 5:31 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb We can even track Roman genes in England … from US populations. Very exciting times for data scientists. pic.twitter.com/q7yDIUChd6 Permalink 5:07 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb You will notice that Phoenicians (mainly J2a) are not “Semitic”. Languages follow minority rules. Needs to add some Natufians as they may not all be haplo E. Permalink 5:04 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Science, History, Culture, & (soon) probability at their best: rigorous tracking of ancient populations through genes. Dates will change as many are sequencing individuals from archeological sites. Will be improved with inf. theory/probabilistic methods Here IJ haplogroups pic.twitter.com/7Q0Egn4E0k Permalink 4:59 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb In all fairness, @johngapper agrees mainly with the point and find the book entertaining (adding this), but I could not resist playing with his “flaw” Permalink 4:02 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And Zoe Williams, @zoesqwilliams should not put on public display a deficit in reading comprehension. pic.twitter.com/DHqxailG0u Permalink 3:48 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Starting here a thread putting some skin in the game of journos reviewing Skin in the Game. We start with @johngapper at the @FT. pic.twitter.com/vNDnyOcGtX Permalink 3:31 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I was polite I did not call them more accurately BS vendors. Gabish, @michaelshermer?https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/967584346319216640 Permalink 6:54 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@jordanbpeterson These are very much the points I was trying to make (with some success) when I spoke twice with @samharrisorg : @nntalebhttps://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a Permalink 5:19 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Project Syndicate @ProSyn confirms they removed Henry Miller’s @henryImiller articles from their site. Permalink 1:25 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining the curse of dimensionality (and why it makes errors grow rapidly, hence impossible to see high dimensional effects even from known causes) #GMOs #DelendaMonsanto pic.twitter.com/ZQAPgIM3ri Permalink 1:15 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Here is the answer @CutTheKnotMath : As we add dimensions, something counterintuitive: the “half” space shrinks to …ZERO. This is the curse of dimensionality behind p!=np we used with GMO idiots.https://twitter.com/MarcosCarreira/status/967499284609490946 Permalink 12:57 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lebanese traditional peasant dress. East Med., even Balkan.https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/967487879940362240 Permalink 12:20 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@TMFStoffel If I only had 2 minutes to capture the essence of @nntaleb’s Skin In The Game, it would be this clip, especially the end, when the lawyer goes to drink the water. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGX4nMrnxg0 #SkinInTheGame Permalink 11:19 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb By the way our argument (counter to what Monsanto shiils are claiming) is not against insulin GM and things “in the box” with low-dimensionality/known effects. Permalink 10:56 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Here is the link to the lecktchurhttps://twitter.com/BNUnionSquareNY/status/967463517044510720 Permalink 10:50 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I am retweeting this gem from @cutheknotmath because: as you go into higher dimensions, things happen… It explains our dimensionality argument againt ignorant GMO proponents and their unrigorous “science”.https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/967391308963819520 Permalink 8:46 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Dear @HooverInst, can you please explain why you have taken no disciplinary action about @henryImiller’s case of scientific fraud? Should I take it up higher with @Stanford U.? Please let me know (as you know I will not give up.) cc: @EconTalker @nfergus Permalink 7:57 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 6) On the other hand, we can use science to debunk bogus historical claims using genetics and probabilistic methods. Permalink 5:15 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 5) The graph from Skin in the Game. This explains why people like charlatan Sam Harris BSing make “scientific” claims that are not covered by science. pic.twitter.com/1ic721A5TB Permalink 5:13 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I see the reason Matthew Syed @matthewsyed did not feel hostile towards Skin in the Game and yours truly: He was a doer become writing about things. Also, he may have some understanding of Shiism and minorities. Permalink 3:52 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The TIMES has a real review, first one in which the journalist doesn’t try to take revenge against author for dissing his profession.https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/review-skin-in-the-game-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb-down-with-the-intellectual-idiots-f2hp5gvd3 Permalink 2:42 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Omission is not symmetric to commission in the real world; only in pseudophilosophical parables. Permalink 3:04 PM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams is finally discovering that Skin in the Game means you can’t write a BS book review without SITG; don’t be surprised that the author is now capable of making you personally pay for it –and for a lonnnnnnnnng time.https://twitter.com/zoesqwilliams/status/966622916065587201 Permalink 11:20 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The author of the article (cc: @econbuttonwood ) didn’t get that SKIN IN THE GAME => if you are IN FAVOR of any such intervention (Lybia), you need to go live there in case it fails or pay SOME penalty. Via Negativa is Not symmetric. Journos have a tough time with clear concepts.https://twitter.com/BisayaFilms/status/967084583098376193 Permalink 9:14 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My New York book Lecktchur. The only lecktchur in the US. pic.twitter.com/Z4t4FV8Otg Permalink 9:10 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb That’s pure BS. BS. Jesus would have looked like some Southern European or a Turk, not a “Middle Eastern” https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-jesus-was-not-a-nonwhite-refugee-who-would-have-voted-for-43779209eea4 Genetic evidence w/@PZallouahttps://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/967067244462133250 Permalink 8:10 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Indeed @DToshkov this is just redoing what @DrCirillo and I did. It wasn’t needed & has no scientific innovation (in creating estimators & historiographical tools). But it does confirms that @sapinker is a bullshitter.https://twitter.com/DToshkov/status/967023211966853121 Permalink 5:16 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 4) Progress, like evolution, must be neither too slow nor too fast. Too slow means extinction from lack of adaptation. Too fast prevents retaining the benefits of past improvements, hence, again, extinction. Permalink 4:12 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) Let me rephrase for the slow at getting it. If you do not treat Tradition as (high dimensional) “experience”, you stand against science and statistical significance –the spine of experimental science. What has worked 10^10 times >>> some psych paper with 60% repl. error Permalink 3:42 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My section on rationality vs BS vending in Skin in the Gamehttps://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a Permalink 2:59 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb “Science and reason is the best we have” is a statement that is both pseudoscientific & irrational. It conflates science and scientism. Science is rigorous, makes no claims outside a v. narrow domain. “Tradition, risk management, and Skin in the Game is the best we have”. Permalink 2:57 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Someone said the debate was @sapinker Pinker against me. I am done after the statstcs part. Closed. The debate (if any) is non-erudite Pinker against uber-erudite John Gray. Permalink 3:01 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb John Gray is the GIANT.https://twitter.com/JasonCowleyNS/status/966658224484225024 Permalink 2:12 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Markov Chain approach pic.twitter.com/RYVxzpxr6h Permalink 2:10 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Expectation of the Largest Number https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/ExpectationOfMaximum.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zM2T8rePxK”> pic.twitter.com/zM2T8rePxK Permalink 10:41 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams conflates skin in the game & incentives. Skin in the game is ABOUT downside risk. “chief executives and shareholders who want values maximised – people whose skin is very much in the game of driving down wages.” Got it backwards! Pitiful. Permalink 8:04 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams also conflates skin in the game with conflict of interest (“mothers of murdered children”). How can one be so ignorant? A strange density of egregious mistakes per line in a book review… Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If you are observing (Greek) Orthodox Lent, (vegan except for, strangely, crustaceous), something easy in Med/an olive oil country, & you find yourself traveling in a butter country where everything has dairy products Permalink 5:03 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The other blatant violation of “Political Correctness” in the @guardian no less: So be cause I am naturalized not native to the West I don’t have skin in the game? WTF is this? Permalink 4:22 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@MicMarsSays “CEOs and shareholders who want values maximised–people whose skin is very much in the game of driving down wages.” 1. Entrepreneurs have Skin-in-the-Game as doers 2. CEOs & shareholders are risk TRANSFERERS 3. Your conclusion inverts Taleb, as risk-transfer disenthralls Permalink 3:31 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb As a Lebanese Christian and given that we Levantine minorities are the main victims of Jihadis, I find Ms Zoe Williams’ claim about my absence of skin in the game w/the West very ignorant and, mostly, very very insensitive. Permalink 3:23 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Susan, being an author is not needed for symmetry. Symmetry is in what she is experiencing now, accountability for bullshitting in a book review. Permalink 3:17 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 I reviewed the main ideas of #SkinInTheGame on my twitter in this thread if anyone wants to readhttps://twitter.com/douglas9162/status/965968383736008704 Permalink 2:50 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@PostTruthSerum A list of British aircraft losses in Falklands shows that 25 out of the 35 aircraft lost were helicopters and 10 were fixed wing. pic.twitter.com/bK8f9y0CCo Permalink 2:10 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Nitpicker nitpiked Dear @zoesqwilliams: Tks for the review. But if you want to nitpick, make sure you don’t make DISCONCERTING mistakes. 1) Learn something about vulnerability of helicopters 2) Minority rule is driven by manufacturing (bundling) 3) …https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/feb/22/skin-in-the-game-nassim-nicholas-taleb-review?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet Permalink 1:55 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dan Sitaru’s Inequality with a Double Integral https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/InequalityWithDoubleIntegral.shtml #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZTw5yGzaEo”> pic.twitter.com/ZTw5yGzaEo Permalink 6:19 AM – 21 Feb 2018

@gappullback To figure out how well you will do ten years from now relative to someone else, count your enemies, count his, and square the ratio. – @nntaleb Permalink 2:20 AM – 21 Feb 2018

@robertwjordway Great podcast interview with BBC @nntaleb, clear and succinct aka no BS. Imagine if we kept a politician’s speech that short… #SkinInTheGamehttps://iono.fm/e/533487 Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb London authentic squid ink pic.twitter.com/JMi2ASDDTv Permalink 2:28 PM – 20 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Rolling, waiting, stopping https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/WaitingForAllSix.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PAa7OGjsDa”> pic.twitter.com/PAa7OGjsDa Permalink 9:04 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 A thread about 100 things I took from @nntaleb’s new book “skin in the game”https://twitter.com/Douglas9162/status/965961351221907456 Permalink 7:16 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 45- I am, at the fed level, Libertarian; at the state level, republican; at the local level, Democrat; at the family and friends level, a socialist. Permalink 7:02 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@byzantinepower Forces of The New Rome unite #Byzantium CC: @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/dwUuhB7K9s Permalink 6:27 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Friends, another (shortened) version… Clear enough? pic.twitter.com/vw2uqrljiz Permalink 3:03 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 Have slept on Skin in the Game by @nntaleb, here is a thread about some things I learned/liked most Permalink 3:02 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Just hit me I have another talk at @dauntbooks at 12:30… Marylebone Permalink 2:26 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb What is it with people expecting a James Bond villain?https://twitter.com/jasonolympics/status/965694502085320704 Permalink 1:32 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@adrianomcs87 If @nntaleb’s insight is right, and if the New Testment authors took a semitic (i.e., Hebraic) notion and translated it into doxa (meaning glory) then the view that they were vulgar Platonists is wrong, since doxa as opinion is one of the most basic notions of Platonism.https://twitter.com/startupdaemon/status/964679507381833728 Permalink 2:26 PM – 19 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Announcement: I am not in Glascow on Friday. Never heard of this.https://twitter.com/fornogoodreason/status/965590985962086400 Permalink 7:33 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@KenMWolfgang Talk with @nntaleb about the evidence supporting the efficacy of the psychological arts. Then come back and tell me it’s superior to prayer.https://twitter.com/rdfrs/status/965036559794888704 Permalink 7:23 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@mikeharrisNY “. However, as Sepp’s chart below shows, What happened on February 5th was well outside the norm.” Ph.D in statistics should know that certain power laws have no “norm”. Outside the norm is the usual rather than the unusual. @nntaleb Permalink 7:21 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@benshapiro Evidence gathered from many locations over many years indicates no religious person was arguing that, you dumbass.https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/964606017513410560 Permalink 6:49 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@yvespatte Ce livre @nntaleb est une véritable arme de self-defense contre les discours de ceux qui écrivent et déterminent le monde, sans jamais mettre leur peau en jeu, sans jamais en payer les conséquences (d’où l’asymétrie) & c’est un vrai plaidoyer pour les entrepreneurs ! A lire !! pic.twitter.com/ki61lgQVLG Permalink 2:23 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Should we announce that Mr Van Someren @alexvans will replace me and speak in my place at @Silva’s Second Home?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/965280477480448000 Permalink 8:02 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@NateAgapi If you haven’t already, you should read Nassim’s book Antifragile. It very much is a scientific critique on many modern systems. It centers on the lack of understanding of statistics. Much of what we think of as science is really mathematical ignorance. Taleb is trying to reform. Permalink 4:29 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb After 2 years of work, our paper “Gini Estimation under Infinite Variance” with @DrCirillo & colleague was accepted by Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Applications. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1707.01370.pdf Permalink 1:21 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb A culture of intellectual honor: NEVER fight anyone outside the limit of the specific fight of concern to you. And never dig people when they are down. Now, intellecktchuals need to learn something about honor.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/965274466761756674 Permalink 11:16 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Oh no.https://twitter.com/Cyberlibris/status/965279683460960256 Permalink 9:41 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The fact that I dislike @wmarybeard & her “scholarship” does not mean I need to be concerned with her other disputes. So I will block anyone getting me involved in her other problems. Gabish? Permalink 9:19 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Same for multiplicative chains from Government Interventionhttps://twitter.com/_youhadonejob1/status/965220109278212097 Permalink 7:25 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@Lekapenos Every time NNT says Phoenicia multiple Arabists commit suicide, Permalink 6:48 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Archeology? Of course: here is a Roman temple just outside the village. pic.twitter.com/JZtBNL1wvO Permalink 6:39 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Bottargua with Araq. Last day before Orth Lent pic.twitter.com/yyVWdvzNdi Permalink 4:29 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb It snowed all night in Northern Phoenicia The “White Mountain” pic.twitter.com/vF8lmcSWg6 Permalink 3:03 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My neighbor in NY is first to see a hard copy of my book (I am in Northern Phoenicia & he opened the shipment).https://twitter.com/NcojoD/status/964923003078406145 Permalink 10:53 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If it is offensive to wonks, like @CLANicholson, it is purely intentional.https://twitter.com/CLANicholson/status/964875811173142529 Permalink 6:59 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@normonics the logic doesnt seem to work for bloggers. you share what you write on a blog. the blog is the product. N is writing books and sharing the making of the sausage. Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb So, in other words, if you see, say a B-School academic with the attitude that “he is smart & had he wanted he would be richer than practitioners” explain to him that he is not an academic BY CHOICE but out of incompetence. Permalink 4:07 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Indeed @R_Thaler’s mental accounting is an interesting intellectual fraud (I mean, really charlatanism): not only he did it statically but by his own admission verbalistically. They add “mathematics” for show. https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/963590651660005377 Permalink 3:28 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@Matthew_T_Kent If these people weren’t so out of touch, they would understand that stories of Trump having affairs with Playboy models will only serve to boost his image. As @nntaleb said: If someone would rather be Trump instead of his detractor, they won’t be swayed by the character attackshttps://twitter.com/ronanfarrow/status/964456374326448128 Permalink 2:20 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Finally, some mystical mathematics: https://www.dropbox.com/s/s93sh2els9tj7cs/GordianProbabilityFeb16-2018.tex?dl=0 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yZQrbaLRtM”> pic.twitter.com/yZQrbaLRtM Permalink 1:37 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@startupdaemon One dictionary I found defined original δόξα as “conjecture”, not opinion. So there isn’t so much an evolution as filling in. The most basic SITG practice consists precisely of conjecture, then (in the extreme) heroic action to “test” it or “make it become manifest”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/728560682489266178 Permalink 5:54 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@vonkronstadt You’re confusing different meanings of “belief”, again NNT nails it in one tweethttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/728562580583796737 Permalink 3:12 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb This mysterious @pseudoerasmus got the point that enlightenment != popenlightenment, Soviet-Harvardism reason!= naive rationalism, atheism, literalism scientism!= scientism sckepticism is about secular not metaphorical values. But he is wrong on Pinker Boy’s theory of violence.https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/962166440395771904 Permalink 3:05 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) THOSE WHO EAT TOGETHER BAND TOGETHER For instance since Muslims can eat Kosher food, why did they add another interdict: wine? To prevent socializing with Jews and Christians hence lower exposure to conversions. pic.twitter.com/d8w3Jgghbv Permalink 1:12 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Highly doubtful. This is an ad hoc “sounds good” explanation. A- 1) Kashrut came with >500 other interdicts. 2) Local neighbors (Greeks, Canaanites, pre-Islamic Arabians) had no such interdict on pork. B- Interdicts serve as religious markers. I discuss in SITG. Permalink 1:02 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Nohttps://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/964595962218872832 Permalink 12:53 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb No, @NaomiAKlein should not retract. All tawk. She should go reside in Venezuela. Now. Skin in the game, @jordanbpeterson eliminates tawk.https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/status/964538309593542657 Permalink 12:27 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@GuruAnaerobic After having followed @nntaleb for many years, I now can’t look at ANY research and accompanying statistical analysis without skepticism. I’m basically seeing bullshit everywhere – it’s killing me! Permalink 9:05 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@jordanbpeterson Ms. Klein @NaomiAKlein since you haven’t retracted your very public support for the murderous totalitarians of Venezuela, it might be better if you just kept quiet…https://twitter.com/NaomiAKlein/status/964498312454918144 Permalink 8:33 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Tossing, waiting, and stopping https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/TwoInARow.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/q5vFcWUzRv”> pic.twitter.com/q5vFcWUzRv Permalink 7:27 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb NonProfiteers & academics who think they made a “sacrifice” underestimate how hard (& rare) it is to make money in the Real World w/o rentseeking. Authors who think they “sacrifice” by not dumbing down underestimate how hard (& rare) it is to sell a book to very wide audiences. Permalink 6:15 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@Mangan150 The replication crisis in clinical psychology: evidence that psychotherapy works is weak.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00256/full Permalink 4:30 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@mikeandallie This falls into the professional math bucket and not the “math for kids” bucket that I’m usually tweeting about. This is a fascinating paper about the the amount of data you need to be able to make meaningful statements about a data set.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964452372167655425 Permalink 3:24 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) It is not just that the Leb war numbers are bogus but they come from journos who BS and cite each another (citation ring), causing an inflation in numbers. Some idiotic historian gets them into books w/1 citation. Trying to clean up war data w/@DrCirillo @ABarnardNYT Permalink 2:57 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The link is here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964450061164965888 Permalink 2:52 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Finally posted my paper on consequences of fat tails in observing an average (you need 10^13 more data for Pareto 80/20 than for a Gaussian). pic.twitter.com/hugGbKoGGN Permalink 2:43 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Actually the numbers for the Leb civil war are bogus. BTW I was there. Same as Hama 1982 climbing without reason. Chapter in Skin in the Game https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac https://twitter.com/ABarnardNYT/status/964160904429539329 Permalink 2:30 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Smart actors become executives Permalink 10:42 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a Random Inequality https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/RandomInequality.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qPhmubXPrx”> pic.twitter.com/qPhmubXPrx Permalink 9:59 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Twelve hours in Casablanca airport. Permalink 6:29 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a Meet in an Elimination Tournament https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/EliminationTournament.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/wjEuVUAna2″> pic.twitter.com/wjEuVUAna2 Permalink 6:21 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining the Weak Non-Ergodicity: Not only your fate will not “average out” but it will diverge over time, the opposite of what has been believed for 290 years in the stupid decision science literature.. Risk is something to be seen dynamically, not staticallt @ole_b_peters pic.twitter.com/K8Ffs5ufjZ Permalink 6:01 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@VergilDen Smart prostitutes become lobbyists Permalink 5:22 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Will @WikiTribune become a platform for Monsanto the way Wikipedia has been?https://twitter.com/TheDrum/status/964081874695049217 Permalink 3:20 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Without skin in the game: Smart drug dealers become pharmacopsychiatrists; smart astrologists become economists; smart serial killers write for the Wash Post; smart bullshitters become “experimental” psychologists; and smart bankrobbers become bankers. Permalink 2:40 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Nate Silver shd not be lecktchuring anyone on probability and statistics. And “deep learning” works better than stat 101 in many domains. Dangerously better.https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/963930336618078209 Permalink 12:39 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@careygillam These Citizen-Regulators In Arkansas Defied Monsanto. Now They’re Under Attack “He doesn’t regret his vote to shut down dicamba spraying. “I put forth a good effort, to the best of my ability, to protect the citizens of Arkansas,” he says.”https://n.pr/2G0Ixkj Permalink 12:23 PM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Under the fascist regime of Franco, the Basque language was banned. Well, the Lebanese language site @learn_lebanese was suspended by Twitter for no apparent reason, with no negative interaction. Twitter, is it censorship by Arabists? Please explain. Permalink 11:37 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Historical Table of drawdowns (70 years of SP500, ~17k observations), different scales, and tail exponent concerves that of returns. pic.twitter.com/4AdgbZo6TI Permalink 10:38 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb For those wasting time listening to journos on market “collapse”: this is normal, very normal business. Very, very normal. Markets are in STATES OF DRAWDOWN (i.e. trade below the peak) ~75% of the time, EVEN when returns are yuge (see 180 years of drawdowns by @financequant) Permalink 10:29 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@WissamYKhalil Just read this great piece from @nntaleb. After I learned Syriac I noticed this, but never have I seen such evidence. Great work! A must read for all those who categories Lebanese as Arabs.https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c Permalink 11:55 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lesson: Nobody us Pro-Saudi Barbaria for freehttps://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/this-pro-saudi-tory-mp-was-paid-ps15000-for-his-work-on-a Permalink 7:11 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb La Boetie: Pour accéder à la liberté, il faut n’être ni maître ni esclave.https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/963605967920386057 Permalink 7:03 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb OK, OK, my turn to signal.https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/963244315890905088 Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Why we started the Real World Risk Institute: education can only come from practitioners.http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-caplan-education-credentials-20180211-story.html Permalink 5:30 AM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile I used Mathematica for a functional quiz pic.twitter.com/omnsCnX3kT Permalink 6:36 PM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Antifragile (or philostochasticity)https://twitter.com/quantamagazine/status/962948174771097600 Permalink 3:46 PM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lunch with maestro Alexander Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath discussing probability riddles pic.twitter.com/1v8SEB3fEL Permalink 10:38 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@ole_b_peters This is the foundation of economics. On this page Bernoulli does NOT compute the expected net change of utility. Don’t take it from me, check for yourself and retweet when you’re convinced. Bernoulli’s 1738 paper http://bit.ly/2nShXn5 Hints on p.023103-6 http://bit.ly/2vwsp8y ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6Uh6ta2eys”> pic.twitter.com/6Uh6ta2eys Permalink 8:17 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@MTayyabAhmed …one should learn to avoid using terms made for knowledge to describe its opposite. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan) #nassimnicholastaleb #theblackswan #quotes #nntaleb pic.twitter.com/CRElfG9OXu Permalink 8:00 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I cannot be diplomatic with harmful frauds. Sorry, but it is not my nature. I can’t stand frauds. I really can’t. Gabish? Permalink 7:14 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Before submitting to Arxiv, my paper on the law of larger numbers and statistical significance under Fat Tails, for error deteckshion. https://www.dropbox.com/s/r1yo700oeih4c87/kappa-n-3.pdf?dl=0 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Btm0KXgzDV”> pic.twitter.com/Btm0KXgzDV Permalink 7:03 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@DrCirillo It’s funny to read claims about changes in the number and magnitude of wars, when the average time span between two large wars is larger than the observation window used to support the claim. It’s like: since it has been raining for three days, the sun does not exist any longer! Permalink 5:52 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Very good, Joe. Descriptive statistics (i.e. without significance test), @DrCirillo and I will argue are a NO-NO with Fat tails and/or time series. Permalink 5:19 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I am certain Monsanto is taking over Wikipedia, @jimmy_wales. This page on the journal entropy does not mentions that many agencies consider Glyphosate likely carcinogenic, uses criticism by Monsanto shill Kevin Kloor. pic.twitter.com/hxSLCa6Cvg Permalink 4:49 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Incidentally, in spite of our plethoric explanations, @PTetlock keeps misdefining the precautionary principle as local risk management /what falls under tort laws. The Precautionary Principle is to make sure the system is there tomorrow.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/962272552256266245 Permalink 3:34 PM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The anti-BS vending mission is working, one mind at a time. (with permission) pic.twitter.com/1eXRe8G1Vn Permalink 11:26 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb It could be associated with bull worshiping coming from Neolithic central Anatolia, traveling with the J2 haplogroups across the Med (Canaanites, Minoans, etc.) In other words, perhaps it came WITH them in Mesolithic or early Neolithic, not learned from neighbors.https://twitter.com/MayaMargit/status/962702296646848513 Permalink 10:56 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb “We Are Living In A Reality Distortion” Mark Spitznagel Warns “This Is Not Over Yet” | Zero Hedgehttps://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-10/mark-spitznagel-why-picking-market-crashes-impossible Permalink 10:17 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb FU attitude…https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/962705530803425280 Permalink 8:03 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 5) Actually @DrCirillo and I wrote a paper on historical wars assuming that historians are bullshitters, getting a sort of metric of robustness to bullshit by historians. https://arxiv.org/a/taleb_n_1.html Permalink 3:13 PM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 4) I am not saying history is BS, only that what you find in history books is full of BS. A lot of fake news. Stop conflating History=good w/ historians=good. I am seeing that via history of wars and genetic maps. Also from bullshits by historians.https://twitter.com/San_person/status/962412576133951488 Permalink 12:16 PM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb In fact, anyone who has taken risks professionally knows this intuitively, but verbagiastic @PTetlock and nudgeboy @R_Thaler can’t get it. Permalink 11:32 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining both the XIV trade and why forecasting is some type of academic BS. https://youtu.be/hRwimmE2wEk via @YouTube Permalink 10:59 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@jacoporomei Yesterday I had my last day with @nntaleb. This is my last personal report about Real World Risk Institute workshop in New York City. Enjoy! #risk #rwri #antifragile #blackswan #skininthegamehttp://bit.ly/2Eh65RE Permalink 10:18 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) If you look at the court system (common law), you can see that it evolved to build a process; not hard laws but procedures designed to minimize errors of reasoning. Permalink 9:31 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And what I mean by law is common law, bottom up pic.twitter.com/g4zCJZQRyA Permalink 9:17 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Why correlation is not correlationhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o Permalink 8:07 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If you remember less crap as you age, it is largely that your filtering mechanism is getting trained.https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/962350303185121280 Permalink 7:50 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Libertarianism is about replacing authority with laws (legal systems, courts). Hard sciences (math, physics) obey laws, bullshit disciplines (psychology, history, sociology) obey authority. In the absence of #skininthegame, authority evolves to BS. In anything. Permalink 7:34 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) we know for sure Tabal is NOT Semitic in origin (TNBL= 4cons. not 3) also it is made into a verb in Leb. Permalink 6:22 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Philology Question du jour. Tanbal (“Farniente”) in Lebanese is Τεμπελιάζω in Modern Greek. Which one comes from the other, or is there a common origin?https://twitter.com/lecths/status/962321258238087168 Permalink 6:20 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb WEF staff is a bunch of BS artists concocting what feels right and sounds intelligent. Zero rigor. For instance @amonck is a fraud.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/734046282340306946 Permalink 5:59 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Rule in life: never cite/post analyses by WEF/Davos. Never.https://twitter.com/jraitamaa/status/962284005998649344 Permalink 4:57 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The pseudohistorian @mikeduncan has to be a total intellecktchual fraud: He jumped in, commenting on the Mary Beard problem without even knowing anything except that it was Mary Beard on the other side. Historians & pseudohistorians are good at fake news. Permalink 3:47 PM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The main difference between Mediterraneans and nonMeds: Farniente (doing nothing) is active for a Med. Permalink 10:53 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Which is why one should not let low-IQ state department & think tank analysts (without skin in the game) anywhere near your problem.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/961976714049015809 Permalink 6:56 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb « Jouer sa peau » et gagnant-gagnant http://la-chronique-agora.com/jouer-peau-gagnant-gagnant/ via @lcagora Permalink 6:18 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Functional Inequality from Vietnam https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/FunctionalInequality.shtml #FigureThat #math #geometry ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/n9OvM4WdLF”> pic.twitter.com/n9OvM4WdLF Permalink 6:02 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@RandPaul Tonight, you could feel the frustration and embarrassment growing in Congress as we exposed the hypocrisy of Republicans who are joining in an unholy alliance and spending free-for-all with Democrats at the expense of the American people and our party’s supposed principles. Permalink 10:53 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@yaneerbaryam “Monsanto manipulated science to promote pesticide glyphosate and GMOs”https://twitter.com/i/moments/961759028891324417 Permalink 4:51 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@RandPaul Would you voluntarily give your money to the federal government for things like this? Wasteful spending is riddled throughout government and this deal just adds to the problem. pic.twitter.com/dMIk8cNR9u Permalink 3:30 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@trishankkarthik Really insightful observation by @nntaleb at #RWRI7 “Although the [cybersecurity] events involve multiple Gaussian points of failure, the dollars involved are power law distributed.” Permalink 2:17 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@_NicT_ Today at #RWRI @nntaleb described a third regime in between mediocristan and extremistan, notable for memoryless exposures over time. Hey Nassim you should call this one ‘persististan’. Permalink 12:50 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@GuruAnaerobic The Real World Risk Seminar is like being at a 5-day banquet. If u havent been yet, plse consider attending.The knowledge gained is immense Permalink 9:44 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@CllrBSilvester During 2nd World War many Brits went to fight with French Resistance against the Nazis. When they came back, if they did, they were treated like heroes They weren’t thrown in prison This Tory Gov has totally left leave of its senses. Most people can’t believe they have done thishttps://twitter.com/CllrBSilvester/status/961563915024044032 Permalink 8:46 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@jacoporomei So much to tell, too much to tell! #RWRI Day 3: my experience report. @avanscoperta! We will need 34 meetup! :-D #complexity #iyi #risk #cravattato http://bit.ly/2GXSaBB ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/iB9dSMWPzw”> pic.twitter.com/iB9dSMWPzw Permalink 12:30 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@ayltoncf Maybe @nntaleb would like this one.https://twitter.com/downunderabc123/status/961194569231560704 Permalink 3:47 PM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb REWRI (Real World Risk Seminar), @trishankkarthik presenting P/NP and predictability, comments on GMOs. pic.twitter.com/5TI9hgOr4v Permalink 12:51 PM – 7 Feb 2018

@Spfannenschmidt In light of @nntaleb’s #RWRI 1) rules for optimizing group vs individual characteristics should differ 2) some of the trees in your random decision forest should be paranoid and overreacthttps://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/960254800179945473 Permalink 9:13 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A correction is in order pic.twitter.com/hqeZO4JUqi Permalink 8:18 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Difference with Pinker boy (@sapinker): + No US book tour (1 lecktchur in NY) + No copies sent to journos (they can buy it themselves) and mostly +No BShttps://twitter.com/sapinker/status/960616039582240768 Permalink 7:25 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Non, le libanais n’est pas un « dialecte » arabeNon, le libanais n’est pas un « dialecte » arabe”https://medium.com/p/non-le-libanais-nest-pas-un-dialecte-arabenon-le-libanais-n-est-pas-un-dialecte-arabe-844fb8dda2f2 Permalink 6:25 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Always apologize except when did something wrong. (Bed of Procrustes) Permalink 6:14 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Apologies are just words. You want them to ALSO lose their own money. Nomura “Sincerely Apologizes” For Blowing Up Investors With Its VIX-Linked ETN | Zero Hedgehttps://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-07/nomura-sincerely-apologizes-blowing-investors-its-vix-linked-etn Permalink 5:50 AM – 7 Feb 2018

Jordan Peterson, Hoover Institute, Monsanto, Pinker, Fat Tails, Sam Harris, Jouer sa peau, Bitcoin, Tetlock, Thaler, Palestinians – Twitter

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@BadgerPundit https://twitter.com/QTRResearch/status/960712791211565056 Permalink 8:25 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Any news if $XIV is trading now & what price? Permalink 8:00 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Ancient Egyptians DNA. Please not another Mary Beard BS.http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/05/scientists-thought-ancient-egyptian-mummies-didn-t-have-any-dna-left-they-were-wrong Permalink 2:59 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The discovery that Ancient Egyptians were likely to be Natufians/Anatolians.https://twitter.com/joshuagates/status/960533298496901120 Permalink 2:17 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@TMFStoffel I published this piece on @nntaleb’s new book and how it applies to investors over the weekend. Seems more relevant than every less than 48 hours later https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/02/03/5-things-you-can-learn-about-investing-from-nassim.aspx ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1WuyM4fJtW”> pic.twitter.com/1WuyM4fJtW Permalink 6:31 PM – 5 Feb 2018

@nntaleb RE ARTISANS (added to SITG) The most skilled traders are often wealthy, but not the wealthiest: many traders trade out of passion & aren’t interested in running a business. To become a billionaire, one needs an appetite for meetings, discussions with lawyers and regulators, etc. Permalink 5:27 AM – 5 Feb 2018

@nntaleb People associated w/”prestigious” institutions (e.g. Stanford’s @HooverInst) are very vulnerable because the inst. cares abt its image, particularly if as with @henryImiller it is scientific fraud. For that one needs f** you money but those who have it don’t shill for Monsanto Permalink 6:04 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I got uncomfortable with @jordanbpeterson (whom I had been backing) after his thingy with Monsanto. Permalink 5:30 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Dear officials at the Hoover Institute, @HooverInst have you started some ethics/disciplinary action against @henryimiller who committed a scholarly fraud? Is your board aware of it? Please let us know before we escalate. Thank you. Permalink 5:02 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Articles about me by Monsanto’s shill of shills @henryimiller have been removed by Forbes. Too bad I have no copy! And thank you @garyruskin for your vigilance (assuming you are responsible for busting Miller)! pic.twitter.com/kzrOwHvx6a Permalink 4:50 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Le corp de mon ennemihttps://twitter.com/mercola/status/960196530031472642 Permalink 9:24 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@MarkJDoran Classic example from recent weeks: Mary Beard giving cosy footrubs to Hillary Clinton, with the sickening result pumped out by the Guardian as if it’s an important conversation… Guess what: the word ‘Libya’ *doesn’t appear once*…https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/dec/02/hillary-clinton-mary-beard-donald-trump Permalink 8:05 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@JulianAssange Intellectuals, with exceptions famous precisely because of their exceptionality, have always served as skilled apologists for the classes who control their funding, career advancement and social elevation.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huMUGm5z6RE Permalink 7:51 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I hate to write for newspapers (last was 6y ago) because you can’t be playful, write on your own terms, make the reader concentrate on some stuff, etc. Permalink 6:57 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb (انقلاب ) is a loan word from Arabic used for coup and (شورش ) is from Farsi but can be Semitic ( uprooting) Permalink 6:52 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Philology du jour: where you learn that in Farsi, “revolution” انقلاب is the same word as “coup (d’etat)” ( شورش and انقلاب are synonyms).https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/status/959999000593170432 Permalink 5:42 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Version 2. pic.twitter.com/fUsafA23WX Permalink 5:20 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@DrCirillo For an Italian, it is not really Sunday without homemade lasagne. Today no probability, just mouthwatering certainties. pic.twitter.com/pdm0p4YNay Permalink 4:52 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Not getting feedback: it is easy to read? Representative? Instead of sending the book to reviewers (who from experience rarely read the book), I am writing my own exposition. Permalink 1:55 PM – 3 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Friends, this Op-Ed explaining (some of the aspects of) the book is here for comments. Will delete later, as per rules of journal. pic.twitter.com/5QFz31YrOe Permalink 1:37 PM – 3 Feb 2018

@nntaleb For those who want to see the text of our study on violence (with @DrCirillo ) http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/violencenobelsymposium.pdf Permalink 6:05 AM – 3 Feb 2018

@GhassanDahhan SPECULATION: Sextus Empiricus, the famous Sceptic, was not an Egyptian or an original Greek (i.e. he’s not Sextus of Chaeronea, as some have suggested). I have many reasons to believe that he was a *Libyan Greek*. Permalink 5:14 AM – 3 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I almost never post bad reviews. I had to for Pinker’s book. When you see huuuge BS, you shout huuuge BS. https://www.amazon.com/review/R1DEH7FKTGM00W/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rdp_perm?ie=UTF8 (some editing will appear in few days) Permalink 2:58 PM – 2 Feb 2018

@ektrit This discovery proves @nntaleb ‘s postulation: “History is Hearsay, plus Fabrication, plus some Truth”https://twitter.com/NPR/status/959552782054256640 Permalink 2:34 PM – 2 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Here’s what I got so far with an explanation of why the result is sometimes e-1 and sometimes just e. It’s all in the formulation. https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/RoadToOne.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sHsbt3Zpc8″> pic.twitter.com/sHsbt3Zpc8 Permalink 9:38 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The problem of statistical inference under fat tails: My next lecktchur, simplified in book with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/rmlg2Enj8x Permalink 7:44 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The first review of the INCERTO as a whole, not taken as bodyparts, by @BrankoMilan. Bypassing the media (except in France) and skipping the book tour (except for lecktchurs in London & NY). https://goo.gl/LRomZC Permalink 7:12 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@smnjc “Skin in the game”, par le maître de l’anti-bullshit @nntaleb (excellent compte-rendu de @NessimAitKacimi dans @LesEchos).https://twitter.com/mobivince/status/959392707499188224 Permalink 3:56 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The fellow is an honest person. He conceded under the calm convincing skills of@ @DrCirillohttps://twitter.com/freakonometrics/status/959206640124874752 Permalink 5:16 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Now here is “statistical estimator”. Nothing works under fat tails as is. Hence our book with @DrCirillo https://www.encyclopediaofmath.org/index.php/Statistical_estimator Permalink 1:43 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dropping points on a circle #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/Qgx21RAtZi Permalink 1:18 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And when you ask these ignorant econometricians like @freakonometrics they recite Extreme Value Theory which never claimed to do statistical inference. Permalink 1:17 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb In 100 years we’ve had imbeciles like this Arthur Charpentier claiming that “we know about Fat Tails” not realizing ALL his work goes down the toilet. Where are the papers on statistical estimation? https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MOiB_W4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao Permalink 1:09 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I am tired, tired, tired of people who say “We know about fat tails” yet 1) fail to use them, see 2) the consequences, 3) realize accepting fat tails means CHANGING completely the way to do statistical inference. And NO, nothing has been done by nobody. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html https://twitter.com/freakonometrics/status/959157853838716929 Permalink 1:01 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Iphone 8, Iphone X, or neither? Thanks in advance, friends. Permalink 10:25 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Corruptionhttps://twitter.com/nonmeek/status/959122957347024898 Permalink 10:00 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@ludvigbel If I had not read @nntaleb, I would have ended up as a bureaucrat married to a boring notary. No kidding, almost happened. Instead I joined startups, endured financial hardship, married an amazing lively girl, moved with her abroad, who knows what next. Ok ok, hindsight bias. Permalink 9:43 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb We need more Serge Langs (a mathematician who blocked social scientists from being considered scientists). pic.twitter.com/qqVqGtRXrh Permalink 9:10 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Obviously, the mean simplifies to Exp[T \mu] Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Changing the mind of students, one PhD student at a time.https://twitter.com/birdxi1988/status/959099030147092481 Permalink 8:26 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Voila. Updated Silent Risk and the lextchur notes. pic.twitter.com/KqqvVwfTxv Permalink 7:18 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@BT_BXL Very good short argument for “the uniqueness and importance of Nassim Taleb”. Don’t be put off by Taleb’s ostentatious and digressive style of writing* or his cantankerous persona on Twitter! *unlike @BrankoMilan I think NT’s ideas succeed despite his style not because of it.https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/958139081652953089 Permalink 6:16 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Here is a draft of the difference between Weak and Strong ergodicities for correction by @ole_b_peters pic.twitter.com/GfnlksQy7e Permalink 5:02 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@ydemombynes 5ème et dernier volume de la cultissime série #Incerto de @nntaleb. Une fois de plus érudit, provocateur, visionnaire. Chapeau l’artiste pic.twitter.com/JBC04Q6ies Permalink 1:52 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Goof to be often understood.https://twitter.com/IndiTrades/status/958739409553170434 Permalink 8:39 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Dominant haplogroup good proxy of overall distance metric as it matches autosomal DNA. There is no granularity but Tunis has coastal J1, South Italy is heavily J2.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/895599465381339137 Permalink 8:38 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Note from above that to be rich in Europe, one has to use the state. This is what happens when you live under the invasive, large, powerful, centralized State. We were heading in that direction under Obama and his crony capitalists. Permalink 7:14 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Before you take anyone commentary seriously, ask him for his predictions for the last election (and, worse, the methodology used for it). BS vending is easy to detect.https://twitter.com/DavMicRot/status/958554711640158209 Permalink 7:12 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Example: Under Obama bankers got in 2010 the largest bonus pool ever, engineered by Tim Geithner. Geithner later got a high paying job in the industry. Permalink 5:58 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) For the slow at getting it, using fame attained *thanks to* the office to sell book contracts is different from attaining fame selling books. Government service is not an investment strategy. Gabish? Permalink 5:56 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Money made THANKS to office is rent-seeking. A former president/PM/official making money from book contracts, lectures, or from “friendly corporations” they helped is THEFT from the public. As bad as it may look, making money BEFORE office is vastly less distorting.https://twitter.com/Annrhefn/status/958623970017857541 Permalink 5:37 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Waiting for a Larger Number https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/WaitForMax.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/YE4bkn2NrP”> pic.twitter.com/YE4bkn2NrP Permalink 1:42 PM – 30 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) This is what the precautionary principle deals with. Which is why nudgeboy @R_thaler, verbagiastic @PTetlock & other psychologists are totally klueeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeless about probability.https://twitter.com/cuttheknotmath/status/958381560931213312 Permalink 10:10 AM – 30 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Azar is another Greco-Phoenician from tiny Amioun.https://twitter.com/whitehouse/status/958384973848948736 Permalink 9:18 AM – 30 Jan 2018

@_benoux_ From the 1st scene of Iliad, Achilles openly accuses Agamemnon as being corrupted, in front of the whole council. It’s an attitude typical of the concept of μπέσα (brutal honesty + honour) inspiring respect (not tolerance), central to the fighting greco-mediterranean temperament. Permalink 4:23 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@normonics I note also, in addition to N’s respondents being barbell, so are his interactions. he either savages or has a friendly constructive exchange Permalink 3:00 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@mikeandallie (1/2) My math goal for 2018 is gaining a better understanding of the various processes described in this short video Nassim Taleb published today.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/958045027992825856 Permalink 2:48 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@schmittpaula This is often what happens to truly courageous investigative journalists: unemployment.https://twitter.com/Greg_Palast/status/958023897516998656 Permalink 2:21 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@startupdaemon You ever wonder why @realDonaldTrump @nntaleb & @ScottAdamsSays argue with idiots on the Internet? It’s even funnier than you think. And instructive.http://startupdaemon.net/2018/01/29/luddic-fraud/ Permalink 2:09 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The difference between weak and strong non-ergodicities, based on Peters and Gell-Mann (2016) cc:@ole_b_petershttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qA_6BWkC4og Permalink 10:31 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb “Insight” and “analysis” is what commonly bears the scientific designation: bullshit, short for unrigorous verbiagistic text and images strung together.https://twitter.com/johndjordan31/status/957994161411641344 Permalink 7:12 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Symmetry (Silver rule of Isocrates) Treat other countries the way you would like them to treat you. (#Skininthegame)https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/957212097984819200 Permalink 5:02 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb ReLU is excellent, even for other convexities. pic.twitter.com/9dKPy3R6A9 Permalink 4:42 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I wonder if Lakens boy @lakens has comments as, although quite verbagiastic & ignorant (he is a f***ng psychologist), he was indirectly useful with previous versions. Permalink 4:28 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Mathematics offer certainties but not effectiveness Engineering offers effectiveness but not certainties Social Science offers neither certainties nor effectiveness Permalink 4:23 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf Reformatted the P-Value paper. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DRAVTU1IF0″> pic.twitter.com/DRAVTU1IF0 Permalink 4:18 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@NessimAitKacimi Victoriam Roma, Nassim Nicholas Taleb et son nouvel essai “Jouer sa peau” chez @BellesLettresEdhttps://tinyurl.com/yc2hgx26 Permalink 12:43 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@ClimateAudit @nntaleb this should concern you. There are relatively few sites which have continuity from the Bronze Age to the Iron Age. This is also a site which links Indo-European Hittites to neo-Hittite northern Syria. Bombing such an important archaeological site should cause outrage.https://twitter.com/BasileusZeno/status/957360866042753024 Permalink 6:06 PM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb No, there is quite a bit if variance along the line. Permalink 11:45 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 8) OK, let me be blunt. How many professions do you know, other than the ones where physical attributes are essential, where the modus “sleep your way up” prevails? Permalink 11:11 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Here is the refinement of genetic distance principal components. pic.twitter.com/NkCYDDlSoY Permalink 11:06 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7) Now a harder questchon: what is the proportion of actors who voted for Hilary Monsanto-Malmaison? Permalink 8:55 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) Remember: actors are trained to not seem stupid. Permalink 7:47 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Hilarious!https://twitter.com/walid970721/status/957142684027809793 Permalink 7:11 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) And for the slow thinkers on the thread, you don’t see gynecologists or train engineers lektchuring the rest of the world on virtue. Actors do. Gabish? Permalink 6:32 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Actors should not be the ones lektchuring the rest of us on ethics & morality. They also have a tendency to conflate virtue and its external manifestation, given that everything in their world is appearance.https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0 Permalink 5:47 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@ole_b_peters Great, thanks! Multiplicative coin toss, discussed in the paper with Murray http://aip.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/1.4940236 with an (old) video here https://youtu.be/LGqOH3sYmQA?t=4m4s Also instructive: X does an unbiased random walk. Heads: X -> X+1 Tails: X -> X-1 Fair coin. — what’s the time average of X? Permalink 5:26 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) I do not know many industries where people are hired either a) on looks, or b) ability to impersonate what one is not. Permalink 5:26 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Romans banned actors from marrying, even mixing with citizens. Same dynamics in modern times, but self-inflicted: engineers can mix w/gynecologists… actors stay with actors. Look at the funerals of “gens du spectacle”. Permalink 5:14 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb To understand why what happens in Hollywood is irrelevant to the rest of humans: 1) How many ACTORs do you have among your friends? 2) How many ACTOR friends do your friends have? Actors rarely mix with real people. Permalink 4:57 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@NonGMOProject Shop Non-GMO Project shirts, hats, stickers and more at http://store.nongmoproject.org ! ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/YJOFxlOZRx”> pic.twitter.com/YJOFxlOZRx Permalink 6:10 PM – 27 Jan 2018

@byzantinepower Trabzon, Antalya (ad infinitum) are lost cities of #Byzantium & the people of these cities still miss the golden days of rule of the #Byzantines. This is the time for #Byzantium to reclaim all lost lands. #OperationLabarum https://twitter.com/sideeque96/status/955413119576170496 Permalink 12:30 PM – 27 Jan 2018

@Marcellenassif https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYZMrFWnMes Cretan dance. Well if this is not separated at birth with Lebanese dabke! Permalink 11:43 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Correlates with the J2 look.https://twitter.com/romepix/status/713087120718561280 Permalink 10:11 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@nntaleb We are not doing any press “promotion” for the book! No books to reviewers (except in France). Why? Just to verify that the Media is something of the past. Permalink 7:18 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Amazon finally discounted SKIN IN THE GAME. I will buy a copy myself. https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/042528462X/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr= Permalink 6:24 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@_skininthegame @nntaleb just finished SilentRisk – a masterpiece. To those who criticize his work as “pop”, take a look at SilentRisk. All the math behind Incerto is there. A technical tour de force on decision making under opacity. Permalink 4:43 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@EricRWeinstein Did @OwenBenjamin crack this wide open in his analysis of one photo? Are 10 men in ties distorting our sense that everyone who doesn’t agree with them is worthy of ridicule? When do these guys appear in open unscripted conditions? Never? pic.twitter.com/JQSgTlp0jG Permalink 5:33 PM – 26 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Not the point. What the entertainer/bullshitvendor @SamHarrisOrg calls “science” isn’t rigorous science but low-grade scientism. Science doesn’t make overreaching claims on how to act outside its narrow domain. Permalink 11:39 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Problem CC252 from @CruxMath #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/fe4WeTqpl1 Permalink 11:26 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3am nshtghl 3laya.https://twitter.com/learn_lebanese/status/956575940406140930 Permalink 9:29 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@dougvk this distinction between rationality, “rationality”, science, scientism, belief, risk, and skin-in-the-game cleanly separated a lot of ideas i’ve been playing around with. @nntaleb always thought provoking, but this one especially:https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a Permalink 9:10 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Which is why those self-styled “scholars” aren’t scholars but derivative academic rent-seeking rats. Better to define yourself as “flaneur”. Permalink 7:43 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Likewise things that have “democratic” in them, s.a. “democratic republic of Korea/China, etc…” or “Democratic Party” of U.S. aren’t democratic but narrowly elitist. Permalink 1:26 PM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Any form of direct harm inflicted on innocent citizens is immoral, no different from other war crimes.https://twitter.com/catoletters/status/956247781936594945 Permalink 12:06 PM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb NYT is lauching its ad slogan: “Truth”. Those in the business of saying the truth don’t advertise that they are saying the truth, except by taking risks in saying the truth. Remember that the Soviet’s offical organ was called Pravda, “Truth” in Russian. Permalink 12:04 PM – 24 Jan 2018

@AndrejDrapal When @nntaleb exposes “soviet harward method” in #Antifragile, he makes my day almost perfect. The rest of the book takes away “almost”. Permalink 11:51 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@AlphaBetaBlogFR “Plus on s’élève au niveau macro, et moins les gens deviennent responsables de leurs actes, c’est un phénomène caractéristique de nos États modernes.” Un entretien passionnant avec @nntaleb, dont le dernier livre vient de sortir. http://bit.ly/2rB5hFi via @rajules Permalink 6:15 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb First Interview about Skin in the Game: The French get it, (Translation) https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fr&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.latribune.fr%2Fopinions%2Ftribunes%2Fnassim-n-taleb-c-est-grace-au-genre-de-folie-individuelle-qu-est-un-entrepreneur-qu-une-societe-fonctionne-765765.html&edit-text=&act=url Permalink 5:10 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb In the 1864 census of Mount Lebanon Shiites were not counted as Muslims but “Metwalis”.https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/955922228503351298 Permalink 3:49 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Jouer sa peauhttps://www.latribune.fr/opinions/tribunes/nassim-n-taleb-c-est-grace-au-genre-de-folie-individuelle-qu-est-un-entrepreneur-qu-une-societe-fonctionne-765765.html Permalink 2:59 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb “Val” in the email is Val Giddings who spent time trying to deligitimize me on the web after our Precautionary Principle paper.https://twitter.com/StacyMalkan/status/955920547480768512 Permalink 3:00 PM – 23 Jan 2018

@GreenRupertRead Aha. The great Chesterton appears to have anticipated @nntaleb in creating the #IYI concept: #IntellectualYetIdiothttps://twitter.com/GKCdaily/status/955846939182010368 Permalink 9:05 AM – 23 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Antioch is the capital of Ancient Syria More Greek than the Greekhttps://twitter.com/CCavafy/status/955789681886670849 Permalink 7:19 AM – 23 Jan 2018

@nntaleb International Association of Name Droppers (IAND) ( What I called the Davos WEF in The Black Swan) Permalink 3:30 AM – 23 Jan 2018

@MarcosCarreira Exact Solutions for Choosing the Largest Number: http://mcarreira.typepad.com/mc_notes/2018/01/exact-solutions-for-choosing-the-largest-number.html @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb The optimal ks are linear on log[n], much higher than the (1-1/n)-like heuristics; includes code to generate (and solve) automatically the probability equations for any n ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DjfEtnp9l2″> pic.twitter.com/DjfEtnp9l2 Permalink 5:54 PM – 22 Jan 2018

@Sophiam1973 psychpathologisation – when someone accuses another of having a psychopathology to win an argument or for other bad faith reasons. Neologism created by @nntaleb #neologism #psychopathologise Permalink 12:31 PM – 22 Jan 2018

@thackerpd The trolls will now start accusing you of wanting children in Africa to starve, because corporate mergers will feed the world’s hungry.https://twitter.com/Colin_Todhunter/status/955456272651997184 Permalink 11:44 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala lghgha Ma fi lghgha bala 2adab Ma fi 2adab bala ktebe Permalink 9:04 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@philomag “Jouer sa peau. Asymétries cachées dans la vie quotidienne” @BellesLettresEd : Nassim Nicholas @nntaleb remet à sa manière la vertu et l’éthique de la responsabilité au cœur de toute entreprise dans https://buff.ly/2DV3JbH ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/EHS7Q2pbfP”> pic.twitter.com/EHS7Q2pbfP Permalink 7:31 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Imbecile, it is MY Haplogrop. Permalink 7:02 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb More interesting than his commie rant, Bernie Sanders is J2 Haplogroup. Now J2b? Does someone know the subclade?https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/955446549684813824 Permalink 6:39 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/xM8anTA93X Permalink 5:35 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Good point. Avoid the verbalistic. Have the discipline to define a Ponzi scheme. Then you can see that Bitcoin, no matter what “bubble” characteristics you impart to it, will not be a Ponzi. And avoid reading ANY commentary on Bitcoin by a NYT subscriber or a tenured econ Prof.https://twitter.com/JuergenStrobel/status/955425189650731014 Permalink 5:08 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Baddna na3réf kif niktob l-lbnéné (amma nsammi ken3ané). Ktébé “B Ed of Procrustes” la7 yetla3 bil-lbnéné. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ejHYQ4ihgI Aya 7arf? @turlevnon @faleflix @oldlevantine Permalink 3:41 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Moved my Bitcoin piece to Mediumhttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/bitcoin-1537e616a074 Permalink 3:08 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Bitcoin”https://medium.com/p/bitcoin-1537e616a074 Permalink 3:01 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@davidboxenhorn Any employee of the IRS or Justice Department who loses records that they are required to keep, should face the same consequences as a civilian that loses records that the IRS or Justice Department requires them to keep. Skin in the game @nntaleb Permalink 12:20 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb It is not rice but vermicelli pasta cooked like rice https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fideuà Permalink 5:07 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@OneCuriousLemur Definitely. I found a lot of value in arguments from @nntaleb that science was largely a hobby for most of its history. The directed-funding structure and emphasis on publications perverts the process into one of trying to be the loudest chick in the nest Permalink 4:59 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Best squid ink pic.twitter.com/jChzMqib4m Permalink 4:43 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/oVBbNZ3XJB Permalink 4:36 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Hahahahahaha. Since klueless Massimo @mpigliucci did not withdraw his piece, here is something putting him (and you all) back in your place.https://medium.com/opacity/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40 Permalink 2:44 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb cc:@LuisBun Permalink 2:06 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Yes. Other techniques than PCA in information theory. But all work, sort of, in giving probabilistic information. If we do find earlier Macedonians of some Most Common Ancestor, game is easier.https://twitter.com/LuisBun/status/955195554438541313 Permalink 2:03 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Here is Pierre Zalloua’s @PZalloua version using ~complete DNA. It includes Bronze age DNA, which is significant to show that what we had in Roman times was not too different from what we got today (Brownian Bridge reasoning). pic.twitter.com/07bSUmiBdL Permalink 12:26 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7) The hockey stick represents the payoff of the option, which is why Deep Learning feels so natural to deriv. traders, but not overeducated and miseducated social scientists. Permalink 6:40 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) So this is a great way to show how the framework used by nudgeboy @R_Thaler & other psychology BS vendors is unrigorous & why their “science” is pseudo-science. Machine learning, just like Antifragile, is based on the logic of organic reality. Permalink 6:35 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) So whatever in the world is robustly (and locally) forecastable NEEDS to fold into that decomposition, as aid. Permalink 6:17 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Even more exciting is that I wrote 2 books Dynamic Heding & Antifragile on same convex-concave decomposition. So I am sooooooooooooo thrilled to see that Machine Learning is based on convexity. My medical chapter in AF makes the applications to Medical Diagnostics obvious! pic.twitter.com/yRRmSoWuAY Permalink 6:14 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb My grandmother did not want me to forget this. Shiites were also routinely massacred. pic.twitter.com/wIukIzw8ER Permalink 6:04 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) This explains why machine learning “forecasting” works: it doesn’t forecast events but series of layered rules, at different scales. EXCITING! Permalink 5:56 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Both methods aim at getting rid of the VERBALISTIC: most risks, exposures, forecasts in the real world are not expressed into simple words, because of nonlinearity. This is my bone with verbagiastic @PTetlock. Machine learning transcends that via same atomic hockey sticks. Permalink 5:55 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) The Uncanny resemblance betw. DEEP LEARNING and my CONVEX PAYOFF FUNCTION, the *Dynamic Hedging* decomposition’s approach. Statistical machine learning decomposes functions into hockey sticks (similar to figure on left). So do we break every payoff into sums of atomic ones. pic.twitter.com/UEMncZaCpi Permalink 5:53 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Not the point. People bothered by my message disguize their complaint as *personal advice* which I find odious. Permalink 5:45 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb What makes you think I care about your advice? Permalink 5:32 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb So minorities thrived in an environment because there was the EXACT opposite to the “equal opportunity” act. Which is why I believe Social Justic Warriors always produce the exact opposite to what they seem to want. Permalink 5:12 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb My grandmother explained to me why many family members were doctors, & almost all doctors in the Ottoman empire were Christians (or Jews). “They won’t kill you if you can heal them”, she said. Permalink 5:08 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb And the replies by some Social Justice IYIs that these minorities were “oppressors” are BSp. Minorities went into trade because they were discriminated against for government/military jobs. They were DHIMMIS, for God’s sake! Antifragility: stressors made them stronger. SJ idiots. Permalink 4:59 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb It is Harald Cramer. He refined the RUIN problem. (revamping SILENT RISK for lecture notes) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harald_Cramér ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rHPxIvBtHT”> pic.twitter.com/rHPxIvBtHT Permalink 4:23 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Who is the true father of the distinction thin-tails/fat tails? Permalink 3:37 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb If after one year of Trump you aren’t convinced that the entire class of today’s “intellectuals” has no grasp of reality, you too have no grasp of reality.https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577 Permalink 1:49 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Elephant in the room. The Coptic minority, past 20 y’s exodus, represented the majority of merchants & professionals in Egypt. Bagdad was 55% Jewish. Losing disproportionately skilled minorities explains the relative decline of Turkey & Egypt.https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/954848813923127297 Permalink 1:18 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@Cockneywonder For some people it’s money, for others it’s a femme fatale, but they hook you with squid ink, these Ruskies are just too cunning. Permalink 2:16 PM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I also vehemently deny the rumor that I understand Russian. I deny. Permalink 4:07 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Moscow had 6 minutes sunshine in December Permalink 4:00 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Conspiracy theorists: I am transiting in Moscow airport. 3 hours… They had something like only a few minutes of sunshine in past month. pic.twitter.com/ZrAAG96fVf Permalink 3:46 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I remained silent with verbagiastic Tetlock’s @Ptetlock comments about my election forecasting (to other clueless psychologists) without even getting basic stuff about probability and forecasting. No more. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/954660774487756800 Permalink 2:34 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@0xAC1DBA5E A picture is worth a thousand words. This is so much better than all the anecdotal political bullshit from pseudo academics. Permalink 2:17 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The genetic map of mankind looks like a triangle with 3 corners, points on only 2 sides, & almost nothing in the interior. The vertical axis counts less than the horizontal one as the 1st PC explains the bulk of the distance. Permalink 7:38 PM – 19 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath #6 – an interesting probability problemhttps://twitter.com/maanow/status/952255844367790080 Permalink 4:22 PM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The method is explained very very well on Wiki pic.twitter.com/r976uAeVqY Permalink 11:45 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb To understand the Mary Beard BBC cartoon problem, here is a 2-D genetic distances of the world (PCA); the map seems to work (if you are confused about Peru, it is not without a reason). Wonder if someone has seen a 3-D PCA cc:@PZalloua pic.twitter.com/xLRSGI51FN Permalink 11:23 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@normonics the irony of the responses that only no SITG academics would utter. like saying there is ‘surprisingly little evidence’ that survival (and non-survival) plays a role in evolution. Permalink 5:50 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) For Context about #nudgeboy’s misunderstanding the very concept of Skin in the Game. pic.twitter.com/TstvWlxrRA Permalink 12:40 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Other problem nudgeboy @R_Thaler holds (in support of verbiagiastic @PTetlock) that a psychological experiment can show … how can hide risk? How can a psychological experiment reveal RISK HIDING and the Bob Rubin Trade? Who is he fooling? pic.twitter.com/yNKR8gtH1w Permalink 12:08 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) I had some restraint with @PTetlock for past years until yesterday when he used the “best-selling author” to dismiss my technical arguments; Finance professor @WGoetzmann did same with”airport books”). Given what I know about his probabilistic understanding, Tetlock is done. Permalink 11:42 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) If you want to understand why @r_thaler (who blocked me on Twitter) keeps nervously defending ag. my criticism, remember the effect of getting the “Nobel” on one’s insecurity. R_Thaler is short volatility.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/902138152281919488 Permalink 11:29 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Mr @PTetlock isn’t getting that if it is “hardly new”, WHY is he conflating ensemble probabilities & time series probabilities? Why is he ignoring absorbing barriers/tails? So either it is not new & he is totally INCOHERENT or … Keep digging.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/954035896260661248 Permalink 10:47 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@CgGeagea “The historical trick is that it was the Ottomans who were Francophile! (Actually Greco-Roman-phile).” @nntalebhttps://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/when-did-lebanese-christians-start-speaking-french-771603969932 Permalink 10:08 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) This list summarizes what’s wrong with behavioral economics. A more expanded piece to follow. pic.twitter.com/VKVQKfyFGX Permalink 3:19 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) In fat tailed environments, or under trial-and-error convex payoff, how often one is wrong has no bearing for those w/#skininthegame. The payoff from tail success will dominate. Pretty much everything done by psychologists on probability, @rthaler or others, is pure garbage Permalink 3:18 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The opposite. There is no payoff. Forecasters forecast success probability not payoff from success, hence will game the system. In the real world what matters is what you get when right, not HOW OFTEN right. See Silent Risk or the stories in INCERTO, part. Fooled by Randomness.https://twitter.com/MLescrauwaet/status/953943622608670720 Permalink 3:00 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) ALPHA MALE PRIVILEGE Trump’s voters have no illusion: they elected an alpha male with the “defects” that come with it. They knew they were’nt electing a pope, a schoolteacher, or an Ottoman eunuch. Permalink 12:42 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb KPACIVO pic.twitter.com/hvP38aH8wn Permalink 12:13 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@salilstatistics Your summary @JGreenblattADL/@ADL_National is what is irresponsible. Only stating “70+% of extremist murders” are by white supremacists, with “only” 26% by Islamic extremists. And failing to note that 70+% of the population is White, while “only” 1% is Islamic. cc @nntaleb Permalink 8:24 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@normonics This guy is claiming there’s not much evidence that evolution works. SITG is necessary condition for evolution.https://twitter.com/r_thaler/status/953756430904868865 Permalink 7:11 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@pmaymin The @nytimes published my letter to the editor about @realDonaldTrump: http://nyti.ms/2FN8WTC cc @nntaleb Also the slightly longer pre-edited version attached; main difference is USSR sentence. Which is better? ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/UK0K0q4Eod”> pic.twitter.com/UK0K0q4Eod Permalink 6:43 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@AStratelates I don’t know of any instance of Taleb ripping into someone who didn’t deserve it. Permalink 2:49 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@pauld1981 @nntaleb I doubt the research includes “dynamic repeated decisions”https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/953756430904868865 Permalink 2:42 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Why pple like @PTetlock can’t understand decisions and forecasting.https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3 Permalink 2:21 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb BS continues: He didn’t get SITG. SITG is a BS filter so those who have it are subjected to Darwinian selection/ absence of ruin. IT IS NOT EVALUATED FROM SINGLE ISOLATED DECISIONS, but from dynamic repeated decisions. Forecasters in words aren’t subjected to ruin.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/953741253409165312 Permalink 2:17 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) In other words, as Yogi Berra said: “You can’t tell them if they don’t know” Permalink 12:43 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Another example that those who don’t have skin in the game will never, never realize that skin in the game is the marker.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/953229284218372096 Permalink 12:37 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb KA3AKCTAH pic.twitter.com/v1FfQiMjP0 Permalink 2:27 AM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The George Bush & Barack Hussain Obama administrations let Saudi Barbaria (our ally) brainwash a generation of Saudis into believing that Christians, Shiites, Atheists, Pagans, New Jersey pple & Zoroastrians are deviants.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/953483566557597696 Permalink 8:43 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Choosing the Largest Random Number https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/ChoosingLargestNumber.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/wK4IdQnaRw”> pic.twitter.com/wK4IdQnaRw Permalink 4:19 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 12) When I talk abt Lebanese war, I talk from #skininthegame & eyewitness: mortar shells in my bedroom, blood of victims on my clothes, disastrous finances, house blown up, family members as hostages, cargo boat rides to Cyprus… Won’t be lecktchured by some low IQ pseudolib. Permalink 2:16 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb An intereting probability problem for the @CutTheKnotMath collection.https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/953035313101885441 Permalink 1:43 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 11) This said I am now in an Armenian (Aleppo) restaurant in East Beirut. Permalink 11:17 AM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 10) “Histories” of the Lebanese war whitewash Palestinians and demonize Christians. They omit the Damour pogrom, in which Christians saw aims at ethnic cleansing similar to what was done to Armenians. Having learned from Armenians, Christians fought back. Permalink 11:38 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@bybloslaqlouq This is the best thread about the Lebanese civil war I have ever read. I’ve been waiting for decades for someone to say this…https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/953011531310125059 Permalink 11:27 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 9) Meanwhile there has to be a minority rule harming the Palestinians by contagion. They displace independent Palestinians such as @saifedean (libertarian/localist) who, as libertarians, have for ethical mission to be model citizens. Permalink 3:42 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 8) The thread started with a “cool” remark. So being on the “left” and “pro-Palestinian” means condoning ethnic cleansing/ extermination, even genocide of Christian minorities in the Levant (not counting the Allawites and Shiites). These are typical “left” wing Arabist values pic.twitter.com/SrWP7UQc7d Permalink 3:02 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb This is the Lindy Effect, ~3-5000 year old. In Semitic languages, it’s called a KTB (ketubah, kiteb), a standard marriage contract (which can be time-defined).https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/953012112330194944 Permalink 2:46 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@DrCirillo Little quiz I asked today. I have a bivariate discrete survival function, for which I know: – P(X≥ x,Y≥ y) – P(X≥ x, Y≥ y+1) – P(X≥ x+1, Y≥ y) – P(X≥ x+1, Y≥ y+1) What is P(X=x,Y=y)? Hint: P(X≥ x,Y≥ y) ≥ P(X≥ x+1, Y≥ y+1), etc. Permalink 2:44 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7b) This said I think nobody should get involved into other people’s problems unless there is skin in the game. The Palestinians were victims of overall bad governance.https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac Permalink 2:34 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7a) This anti-abstract, anti-monoscale, and anti-power against citizens and groups, is the theme of the (finally discounted) next book.https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/042528462X/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8 Permalink 2:31 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) Let me reexplain. I am a localist, a la Swiss, pro-subsidiarity; pple have the right to self-organize; be neighbors not roommates & let their municipality run its affairs; I am anti repressive top-down universalist system. Left/Right classifications are for pol-sci idiots. Permalink 2:17 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) I am tired of people pointing to doctored-up Wikipedia pages of massacres AGAINST Palestinians, downplaying the trigger of first POGROMS (s.a. Damour) BY Palestininans? Similar to the Syrian war propaganda making it look like Evil gov vs Jihadi Saints. Permalink 1:45 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) I am a child of the Lebanese civil war. Before the war I had been stopped by Palestinian at roadblocks & received gratuitous abuse by their “soldiers” simply because I was a 15 year old Lebanese (Christian). It was common. We were FED up #Skininthegame not some pseudolib BS. Permalink 1:35 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) In 100 years of Armenian presence in Lebanon, all you hear are reports of an industrious community that tried to help. As to Palestinians’ model: biting the hands that fed them HAS BEEN their modus operandi. They did the same in Koweit, siding w/Saddam against their hosts. Permalink 1:15 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) It was a declared objective for Arafat that “the road to Jerusalem goes through (Maronite stronghold) Jounieh”. Permalink 1:12 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) You can’t BS w/history. Two Groups of refugees came to Lebanon. 1) Armenians & 2) Palestinians. Armenians tried to give more than they took. Palestinians tried to “liberate” their land by taking over Lebanon & exterminate Christians as “Crusaders/representatives of West”. https://twitter.com/rawantifada/status/953003987183308800 Permalink 1:10 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@shahidkamal I find half of what @nntaleb writes deeply uncomfortable and challenging, which is why I follow him. Permalink 12:57 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Exactly. You don’t try to change the place that invited you. Permalink 12:35 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb For those slow in getting the point about what my aphorism meanshttps://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15 Permalink 12:02 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb When immigration is done by single individuals, it is immigration. When done by groups, it is invasion. Permalink 11:31 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb This #Beirut film is no different from “Borat” meant to be about Kazakhstan, in which the cast was mostly Romanian Romas speaking Hebrew. Permalink 8:36 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The movie #Beirut was filmed in Morocco with NO Lebanese cast and not a single connection to Beirut other than the name. Permalink 6:11 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Largely p-hacking, among other crap.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/936563894339948544 Permalink 3:26 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Best Twitter (and general) strategy: block any person psychopathologizing another, particularly when there is political divergence. (Use if accusations s.a. “narcissist”, “inf/superiority complex”, etc.) Remember: psychology is junk science. Permalink 2:15 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/23nEGZ5ktm”> pic.twitter.com/23nEGZ5ktm Permalink 1:54 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb It just hit me from @MTayyabAhmed’s remark that indeed you don’t really exist if you are not free in something.https://twitter.com/MTayyabAhmed/status/952648027046588417 Permalink 3:50 PM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink Phoenician style in Central Phoenicia pic.twitter.com/zOEB1Sfquh Permalink 11:04 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@EHSANI22 Mosaic flooring discovered near Hama (oqairabat) as Syrian Army was clearing mines. Writing seems dedicated to Saint Alexander and to a most respectful bishop named Evangelus. ΕΠΙΤΟΥΑΓΙΟΥΚΑΙΕΠΙΣΚΗΜΩΝ ΑΛΕΞΑΝΔΡΟΥΤΟΥΟΣΙΟΤΑΤΟΥΠΕΡΙΚΑΜΜΟΥΚΑΙΤΟΥΕΥΛΑΒΕΣΤΑΤΟΥΕΥΑΝΓΕΛΛΟΥΕΥΞΑΜΕΝ” pic.twitter.com/1vGFUQGBm1 Permalink 6:35 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@JosephChimienti Reading antifragile by @nntaleb and says a man’s only free when he judges with full sincerity. Must call a spade a spade. Permalink 5:26 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Every single item at the Sunday extended family Lunch in Amioun has an indigenous name. No Arabic. pic.twitter.com/wN1OGDjSB0 Permalink 4:05 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Stable definition of Communist = Highly Selective Memoryhttps://twitter.com/phl43/status/952509904593530880 Permalink 4:02 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A new version of “No, Lebanese is not a ‘dialect’ of Arabic”. Truly, Semitic linguists don’t know how to categorize.https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c Permalink 2:28 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Denial being of course a necessary but insufficient condition. Permalink 2:12 PM – 13 Jan 2018

@nntaleb No rumor is true until officially denied.https://twitter.com/billclinton/status/952271892756553728 Permalink 1:43 PM – 13 Jan 2018

@Spfannenschmidt “Le courage est la seule vertu que l’on ne peut pas feindre.” NN Taleb @nntaleb Jouer sa Peau, p268 https://www.lesbelleslettres.com/contributeur/nassim-nicholas-taleb Permalink 6:02 AM – 13 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Sam Walters’ Four Questions https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/SamWaltersFourQuestions.shtml #FigureThat #math #algebra with thanks to @SamuelGWalters ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jQAtJHsfVL”> pic.twitter.com/jQAtJHsfVL Permalink 2:37 PM – 12 Jan 2018

@nntaleb If there us to a piece of advice from me you want to remember, take the following: Never use Google Maps in Beirut. Never. Permalink 9:26 AM – 12 Jan 2018

@MarcosCarreira Mathematica notebook and converted PDF available here: http://mcarreira.typepad.com/mc_notes/2018/01/russian-roulette.html partitions*multinomials=>compositions*(generalised derangements)=>possible sequences Permalink 3:48 PM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I’ve plan in 2018 to 1) be more blunt, 2) be much, much, much more stubborn, and 3) have more squid ink.https://twitter.com/des_turner86/status/951581775536455680 Permalink 2:50 PM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Parigi pic.twitter.com/QbvMKi14Q7 Permalink 12:19 PM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb In Paris with @MarcosCarreira arguing about the most “elegant” solution. He is using overlapping tuples, I am using the Multinomial distribution. (Marcos is doing a PhD in Math Finance at Ecole Polytechnique) pic.twitter.com/qQ0AssTkws Permalink 9:55 AM – 11 Jan 2018

@Spfannenschmidt French term of the day : attrape-couillon — Jouer sa Peau par NN Taleb @nntaleb p223http://choualbox.com/CKWsy Permalink 9:44 AM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb “Jouer sa Peau” dans Philosophie magazine. pic.twitter.com/NbdXTkRdir Permalink 3:41 AM – 11 Jan 2018

@PZalloua Phoenicians were explorers, not conquerors! @nntalebhttp://www.newsweek.com/dna-mysterious-ancient-civilization-phoenicians-explorers-greeks-romans-774524 Permalink 11:27 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The unfortunate part of breaking a fast: makes you less aggressive, less active in BS debunking, less of a hunter. You need to act *while* fasting. I had on my agenda setting @jordanbpeterson straight/ teaching him a lesson on reasoning, science & ethics; becomes less urgent. Permalink 5:55 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Sokrates used to walk around the house delaying his meal as he held that hunger was the best seasoning. (#Antifragile) Fasting can turn any meal into a Michelin 3 star. Permalink 4:54 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Bone marrow. It makes fasting easy when you know the exact reward. pic.twitter.com/BKhHZchqFD Permalink 4:42 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Paris: breaking the second fast (40h) pic.twitter.com/YeLNQubZGN Permalink 4:27 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@melodielaggaffe A video by @nntaleb on how to write #Lebanese. Answering the question why Said Akl alphabet didn’t catch up immediately without even tryinghttps://youtu.be/5ejHYQ4ihgI Permalink 3:46 PM – 9 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Group Russian Roulette – The Easy Part #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/r8SkphLTin Permalink 1:16 PM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb And the best nutritionist is your great-grandmother.https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/950110908533084161 Permalink 12:43 PM – 9 Jan 2018

@lpbreva This will keep you sane and will help you ignore all the advice you’ll get about “validating” your idea. @nntaleb put it nicely in a recent tweet: “Social scientists want to ‘learn statistics’ w/o understanding probability.”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/881500380479279104 Permalink 11:09 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@TheBondFreak @bigfatsurprise That could be one of the most ignorant statements I’ve ever read. @nntaleb would have a field day with that guy. pic.twitter.com/FeoyUxXeSy Permalink 9:48 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@JMJalel_H @nntaleb mentions #Libya 2011 to explain his new book’s title—“Skin in the Game”: “If you’re a #Paris official with a nice house in the countryside & a taste for ski vacations, then of course it is very easy for you to be in favor of a military intervention by #NATO in #Libya.”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/950756404473794560 Permalink 9:13 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb How to write Lebanese (in Lebanese) https://youtu.be/5ejHYQ4ihgI via @YouTube Permalink 8:33 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Une breve présentation de mon nouveau livre deja en librairiehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzBdTV8Qwo8 Permalink 7:49 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@Darius1296 So the correct way to use R^2 is to theorise a relationship between two variables first, and then use R^2 to test that theory? The fallacy is to try out every single curve and pick the one that maximises R^2. Permalink 3:15 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Solution for the Christmas binge: Fast 45 hours, visit the gym during the fast, and you are done. Permalink 4:56 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb So we can call it the Tolstoy-Friedman rule. Milton Friedman (who was a remarkable statistician) used to tell students: “If you don’t see it in Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), it’s not there.” Permalink 3:09 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb In other words, as Tolstoy told us: “You can be linear in only one way, nonlinear in zillions of ways.” Permalink 12:46 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A detail every appliedprobastatisticists needs to spot. Whenever it’s not a straight line, R^2 cannot be what is claimed because we lose degrees of freedom from fittin *which* nonlinearity. Insight from Milton Friedman. @DrCirillo and I will diskuss in our new book.https://twitter.com/afrakt/status/950323771847659520 Permalink 12:40 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) The point is not that he thought that Debt =>Wealth, but that what he had constituted a definitive “scientific proof” and that, to him, the problem was settled. Permalink 11:42 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Nice to see legal theorists catching up to the minority ruuuuuuule. http://scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1074&context=wlulr-online ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/a1KduxGkSZ”> pic.twitter.com/a1KduxGkSZ Permalink 7:42 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb His “proof” was: Debt was up => GDP/inventions went up. He could not get that, also “Smoking went up => GDP went up” or “pollution => GDP went up”. So I called him an idiot. Permalink 6:32 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I once called Michael Wolf (Trump’s biographer) a IDIOT to his face at a London dinner Q&A event 6 years ago. (He claimed having an “indisputable scientific proof” that debt “caused” prosperity, the industrial/technological revolutions…) @rorysutherland @Silva Permalink 6:24 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Antifragile: stress, and only stress improve bone density. 6 years later.https://twitter.com/jama_current/status/947112544161943552 Permalink 7:13 PM – 7 Jan 2018

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