“I hope for Goldman Sachs’ bankruptcy”: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Skin in the Game https://t.co/IlSm6ZJlir
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 8, 2018
@nntaleb The definition of a home: you are happy when you leave and you are also happy when you return. Permalink 2:57 PM – 12 Mar 2018
@nntaleb He has a surprise at the end! #Skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/philipdevroe/status/973306516521541634 Permalink 2:43 PM – 12 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Yet they let into the UK the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/caphoratius/status/973285051050921985 Permalink 2:29 PM – 12 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Friends, the NYT visibly reads this and CARES about SoschialMeedya as they CHANGED the book description in response to my online criticism… (Thet don’t like to be called idiots). pic.twitter.com/xcFuMVGA7X Permalink 12:44 PM – 12 Mar 2018
@RalphNader Ralph interviews Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) about his new book, ‘Skin in the Game,” about the role risk and reward plays not only in politics, but also our daily lives https://ralphnaderradiohour.com/skin-in-the-game/ Permalink 10:18 AM – 12 Mar 2018
@DrCirillo Another preview of the forthcoming work with @nntaleb. Take the number of conflicts in 1800-2000 with 500k+ casualties, using actual (rescaled by coeval population) data. 1800-1850: 5 (14) 1851-1900: 8 (20) 1901-1950: 14 (25) 1951-2000: 16 (20) Increase, decrease, the same? Test? Permalink 9:01 AM – 12 Mar 2018
@schotz Had someone come up to me and ask if I was Nassim Taleb. Found him on twitter (@nntaleb). Definitely my twitter Doppelganger. And he’s a stats guy! Permalink 7:05 AM – 12 Mar 2018
@nntaleb I will be presenting: 1) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf 2) Something from the Fat tails project w/@DrCirillohttps://twitter.com/NECSI/status/973195835201740800 Permalink 7:01 AM – 12 Mar 2018
@ggreenwald There is now reportedly “doubt” about whether Mohammad bin Salman, in attacking other Saudi royals, was genuinely motivated by “a transparent, legal anti-corruption effort.” Did anyone other than Tom Friedman & David Ignatius not doubt this? pic.twitter.com/SdsPwQRduM Permalink 5:08 AM – 12 Mar 2018
@nntaleb 3) Doggedly determined revenge, particularly when delayed (and unexpected), is not a tit-for-tat to prevent repetition; it is to show others what to expect. Mediterraneans like revenge to be “a dish you try to only eat when cold”. Permalink 1:03 PM – 11 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Now @realDonaldTrump why are you ignoring very valuable and realistic economic advice from @JustinWolfers who makes a living from … charitable contributions? #Skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/972885021118947330 Permalink 12:40 PM – 11 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Sorry, correction for typo: “long after he has forgotten about it” shoud be “long after he fuhgodaboudit” Permalink 10:32 AM – 11 Mar 2018
@nntaleb “Start by being warm, pleasant, & generous w/every person you meet; but if someone tries to exercise power over you, exercise power over him; & if he messes w/you, remember to keep messing w/him long after he has forgotten about it”. Silver Rule of Fat Tony in #SkinInTheGame Permalink 10:30 AM – 11 Mar 2018
@danielnyari the contention about campus free speech activism was always about the minority mob, not whether it’s widespread. straw-man. The question is whether the minority rule matters in influencing the majority. I think @nntaleb has answered that quite eloquently.https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15 Permalink 8:57 AM – 11 Mar 2018
@jw_excel Graduate confirms @nntaleb’s view of business degrees by suing her university for £60,000 over her ‘Mickey Mouse’ degree in international business strategy.http://dailym.ai/2tE7DV2 Permalink 5:58 AM – 11 Mar 2018
@nntaleb 1) THREAD I am reading B****t Jobs by @davidgraeber. Effectively if you have the soul of an artisan (cabinet maker), working as paper shuffler will make you miserable. Note that 10% of Americans are self employed, numbers dropping w/modernity. #Soulinthegame = artisan. Permalink 5:54 AM – 11 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Imbecile, 1) how do you know it is “ripping the book apart” if you read the review NOT the book? 2) Replace “war” with “violence” as this is the context. 3) Pleaaaaaaaase do NOT read my book as you are not fit to read books. Permalink 4:54 AM – 11 Mar 2018
@GKeferstein I am a doctor. Same in field of medicine. Currently it’s 30% practice and 70% academia. Should be 80% practice and 20% academia. Medicine is a craft. Education should be treated as such. There should be doctors and medical scientist. Different fields. Different paths. Permalink 4:28 PM – 10 Mar 2018
@zeinshami11 @nntaleb They’ve been reading antifragile in Europehttps://twitter.com/voxdotcom/status/972619359834210305 Permalink 3:57 PM – 10 Mar 2018
@nntaleb How Permalink 3:00 PM – 10 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Imagine that someone else than @realDonaldTrump were elected & did EXACTLY the same things he did —except that the statements & tweets were speechwritten by Obama. What would have MSM reacted? #Skininthegame = observe actions not tawk Permalink 2:58 PM – 10 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Why is it that academics and people who tawk and never do have trouble with the notion of #Skininthegame? They mistake incentives for … evolution. https://twitter.com/decision_spark/status/954021123850633216 All: @CFCamerer, @PTetlock, @R_Thaler @decision_spark klueeeeless. Permalink 10:48 AM – 10 Mar 2018
@nntaleb This propaganda from Saudi Barbaria won’t work. We have BRONZE AGE genes, current genes and no match in DNA to this BS. @PZallouahttps://twitter.com/Abunass3r/status/972481465807142918 Permalink 8:56 AM – 10 Mar 2018
@nntaleb @shahanSean Permalink 8:39 AM – 10 Mar 2018
@nntaleb We know from DNA that this map of “Arab tribes” is a fabrication. Complete fabrication.https://twitter.com/abdm7771/status/972468717153120258 Permalink 8:38 AM – 10 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Maybe the @FT’s @johngapper should have done his homework and spoken to judges (I did). Or read comments on judges on the book. Or perhaps just read the book.https://twitter.com/hwtnnn/status/972507365407936513 Permalink 8:23 AM – 10 Mar 2018
@SJosephBurns “Traders, when they make profits, have short communications; when they lose they drown you in details, theories, and charts.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:20 AM – 10 Mar 2018
@nntaleb “The Skin in the Game Derangement Syndrome” (RENAMED)https://medium.com/incerto/the-controversy-around-skin-in-the-game-6d46416ee47f Permalink 7:07 AM – 10 Mar 2018
@nntaleb The New Testament was written in what Nietzsche calls the “bad Greek” of Syria, in Antioch Permalink 4:01 AM – 10 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Christianity was born in Syria. Remember.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/972250427277398017 Permalink 3:36 AM – 10 Mar 2018
@financequant Another example that dealing with fat tails requires a different set of tools than those taught in “standard” probability and statistics. Many decisions, particularly in governments and in quasi-government NGOs, are based on deeply flawed interpretations of the data.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/972089907991711746 Permalink 2:53 PM – 9 Mar 2018
@nntaleb https://share.podclipper.com/econtalk-nassim-nicholas-taleb-on-rationality-risk-and-skin-in-the-game.html?start_ms=610820&end_ms=732610 Permalink 12:00 PM – 9 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Who is this Boss, @desertnaut?https://twitter.com/desertnaut/status/972168770012827648 Permalink 10:06 AM – 9 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Mr Giligan, @tomgilligan, director of @HooverInst can you confirm whether you support scientific fraud/misconduct by your fellow Henry I. Miller @henryImiller? (see thread) Permalink 8:50 AM – 9 Mar 2018
@haghadi “The curse of modernity is that we are increasingly populated by a class of people who are better at explaining than understanding.” ~ @nntaleb #skininthegame Permalink 6:34 AM – 9 Mar 2018
@nntaleb These women took risk. Virtue resides in risk taking, not in signaling/tawking. #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/Elif_Safak/status/972090717853057024 Permalink 4:50 AM – 9 Mar 2018
@nntaleb The Fat Tails Estimators Project has been very active. w/@DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/TMpcq6pCLw Permalink 4:41 AM – 9 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Interestingly, the word “frata” in Lebanese comes from the Phoenician root, as p’rot = break into small change. It is a mystery how Jastrow knew so much about Phoenician. Permalink 5:55 PM – 8 Mar 2018
@nntaleb My dream is for @realDonaldTrump to stop in Teheran on the way back, just to save on fuel.https://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/971921200644435969 Permalink 5:38 PM – 8 Mar 2018
@nntaleb The first round we showed that @sapinker had NO evidence to make his claims (like saying: this moved by 1/20th of a standard deviation, let’s write a book!) The second time we may hint that the opposite of what he is saying is true. cc:@BillGates Permalink 4:53 PM – 8 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Yo Pinker, @sapinker, get prepared for a second round. Cc:@BillGateshttps://twitter.com/drcirillo/status/971886554632384512 Permalink 3:35 PM – 8 Mar 2018
@EconTalker From this week’s EconTalk: Listen to @nntaleb explain why skin in the game is not about incentives for him, but filtering:https://share.podclipper.com/econtalk-nassim-nicholas-taleb-on-rationality-risk-and-skin-in-the-game.html?start_ms=2988600&end_ms=3085360 Permalink 3:33 PM – 8 Mar 2018
@nntaleb The problem is that even Hebrew philologists think תעריף comes from Arabic (it is tariff in Heb.), mistaking the root 3RF (knowledge) for the Phoenician (YRF) “sharing a piece of the merchandise”. cc:@KarlreMarks pic.twitter.com/ZwdkYNcNDx Permalink 2:21 PM – 8 Mar 2018
@nntaleb The origin is actually a Phoenician Mercantile term. The Arabs shamelessly claim other people’s discoveries as their own; abetted by the erudition-free IQ-free Arabists. Bravo @GeorgeJNasr for getting it. pic.twitter.com/MlpFJBuWcp Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Mar 2018
@CutTheKnotMath I love Markov chains. Simple and unifying Permalink 1:48 PM – 8 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Was fixed. Permalink 10:58 AM – 8 Mar 2018
@georgeeaton Nassim Nicholas Taleb: “Unless warmongers are more exposed to dying than others it’s the equivalent of reckless drivers being isolated from the risks of reckless driving.”https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/observations/2018/03/i-hope-goldman-sachs-bankruptcy-nassim-nicholas-taleb-skin-game Permalink 9:48 AM – 8 Mar 2018
@turlevnon Leš meš l’leğa l’lebnéniyé leğa rasmiyé l’lebnén? #SûalJarî. pic.twitter.com/zHJ1L4zGD9 Permalink 9:21 AM – 8 Mar 2018
@nntaleb This is my point of discussion with @bryan_caplan Hobbysists -> Technology -> Science not reverse arrow.https://twitter.com/SpencerBaum1/status/971795952280350721 Permalink 9:15 AM – 8 Mar 2018
@nntaleb GPA is a test that flunks reality. Wittgenstein’s ruler: you use the ruler to measure the table; can also use the table to measure the ruler. When results are far from the measurement, it is the measurement that’s wrong. GPA may work w/salarypeople, academics & other captives.https://twitter.com/ericozkan1/status/970370465129730048 Permalink 8:51 AM – 8 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Delenda Goldman Sachshttps://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/971595132536606721 Permalink 7:56 AM – 8 Mar 2018
@CutTheKnotMath Probability of No Two-Tail Runs https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/NoRunningTails.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sTgMrKUahW”> pic.twitter.com/sTgMrKUahW Permalink 7:02 AM – 8 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Mistake: max deadlift was ~400 not 330. Permalink 4:01 AM – 8 Mar 2018
@nntaleb “I hope for Goldman Sachs’ bankruptcy”: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Skin in the Gamehttps://www.newstatesman.com/culture/observations/2018/03/i-hope-goldman-sachs-bankruptcy-nassim-nicholas-taleb-skin-game Permalink 3:50 AM – 8 Mar 2018
@nntaleb As usual, the origin is Aramaic. Cc:@KarlreMarkshttps://twitter.com/karlremarks/status/971416075060596736 Permalink 6:07 PM – 7 Mar 2018
@nntaleb THE END OF THE MEDIA So Skin in the Game made the NYT Bestseller’s List without a single US book review, with a single book lecktchur in NY. All thanks to my twitter friends (and enemies). Characteristically, these NYT idiots still managed to mis-describe the book. pic.twitter.com/sPqPPVmazD Permalink 2:24 PM – 7 Mar 2018
@DrCirillo It is extremely fascinating: you can increase or decrease the time span, and the distribution stays the same. Permalink 12:38 PM – 7 Mar 2018
@DrCirillo Now, focusing on 20th century, using a more complete data set we are working on, we observe the same distribution, in a purely fractal pattern. Apparently no finite mean, extreme fat-tailedness. The long peace?! Really? pic.twitter.com/Ksc6QE5wyu Permalink 12:26 PM – 7 Mar 2018
@CutTheKnotMath Probability of crossing a bridge https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/CrossingBridge.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KxKifPtc7W”> pic.twitter.com/KxKifPtc7W Permalink 8:08 AM – 7 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Correkshion: It was not @davidpapineau but another philosopher. All these philosophers have weird foreign names! Permalink 7:05 AM – 7 Mar 2018
@nntaleb There is this BS in this “disagreebleness” scale used by psychologists, unconditional of domain. Like most psych categorizations, BS. Many are socially gentle but intellectually rigorous & no-nonsense: others nasty in person but appear gentle in public . BS! cc:@KlingBlog Permalink 5:47 AM – 7 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Does “PHILOSOPHY” have a problem? The Massimo Pigliuci (“Klueless Massimo”) problem: dissertation from twitter comments, even “philosopher” @davidpapineau comments without knowing what the subject is about.https://medium.com/opacity/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40 Permalink 4:39 AM – 7 Mar 2018
@GhassanDahhan And it has cost a lot of Yemeni lives.https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/971362089531932672 Permalink 4:38 AM – 7 Mar 2018
@financequant “I am, at the Fed level, libertarian; at the state level, Republican; at the local level, Democrat; and at the family and friends level, a socialist.”–Geoff and Vince Graham (quoted by @nntaleb, Skin in the Game) Permalink 8:10 PM – 6 Mar 2018
@GeertNoels The lack of good governance of the Trump Administration gets more attention in the EU media than the lack of good governance of the EU. The #Selmayr case should get a lot more attention and disapproval.http://www.liberation.fr/planete/2018/03/04/martin-selmayr-braque-la-commission-europeenne_1633807 Permalink 10:42 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@yaneerbaryam Here is a list of false claims about GMOs pic.twitter.com/cKIfJh58Gb Permalink 8:17 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@normonics pic.twitter.com/Tx5M1koP0M Permalink 7:57 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@thinkingnuggets Part Two – The Biggest Takeaways from Nassim Taleb’s (@nntaleb) Book “Skin In The Game”http://www.nuggetsofthought.com/2018/03/06/biggest-takeaways-from-nassim-talebs-book-skin-in-the-game-part-two/ Permalink 7:49 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@yaneerbaryam Here is one illustration of the difference between breeding and transgenics (GMOs) pic.twitter.com/k9m0uht0lz Permalink 7:44 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@nntaleb 5) I am also FED UP seeing an ad for Pinker’s book pop up on @amazon every time I am buying stuff. pic.twitter.com/BQHKai8mRc Permalink 7:42 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@nntaleb The @guardian retracted on an Op-Ed style article explaining my own side of Skin in the Game after seeing the below. (Republished on Medium) Unethical journalism doesn’t work in the age of social media.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/970677174213791746 Permalink 6:52 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Donaldo, @realDonaldTrump, what are you doooooooooooooing?https://twitter.com/thehill/status/970997689910480896 Permalink 6:27 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@nntaleb 4) Note the same typical @sapinker conflations: a) 2 classes of AI (busted by @elonmusk ) b) 2 classes of probability (thin tails and fat tails) c) 2 classes of breeding (slow vs transgenic): jumping from the 34th floor window not the same risk class as taking the stairs. etc. Permalink 5:54 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@nntaleb 3) Our precautionary principle. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html Note the recent trumpeted GMO meta-analysis of 6000 papers had only… 50 per study, and NO tail risk. Note that none of the “Nobels” were into tail risk. Includes literature etc. Permalink 5:29 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@GuruAnaerobic My friend attended the #RWRI seminar in Feb – just for the last day (he had been at a 3-day med conf in Barcelona). He’s been involved in the Stent industry for over ten yrs. Just one day blew apart the statistical concepts he’d learnt in the medical field.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/971004358539333633 Permalink 5:20 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@nntaleb 2) Replace Pinker’s book w/ 75 informative graphs by @MaxCRoser who should publish book without words. Preferably in color. But remember that data gathering is not data *science*. Permalink 5:17 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@nntaleb 1) Was not aiming to read @sapinker’s book, saw this on GMOs: he is as klueless about komplexity & nonlinearity as he is about elementary statistical significance. The text is full of BS (to him science=scientism), it doesn’t match the pics. pic.twitter.com/hR9yjHQTih Permalink 5:17 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@nntaleb My argument about convexity is here: https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-understanding-is-a-poor-substitute-for-convexity-antifragility Permalink 4:50 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@nntaleb We are doing RWRI 8 on May 28 (5 days) in NYC http://www.realworldrisk.com Scholarships are open. (And please don’t offer to improve the website. It is what it is.) Permalink 4:47 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Excellent argument by Bryan Caplan @bryan_caplan, but missed something central: convexity of trial-and-error & heuristic learning. I sort of wrote Antifragile using Kealy’s argument & transcending it. Would love a diskushshun/debate @tylercowen.https://www.amazon.com/dp/0691174652/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_SMONAb5ET7ASM Permalink 4:34 AM – 6 Mar 2018
@goorha Just read @nntaleb in his new book #skininthegame. It’s the only book I have read while clapping, laughing and nodding all at the same time. Permalink 4:28 PM – 5 Mar 2018
@MrPeterEsho NNT is back @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/mpawlo/status/970337104076079106 Permalink 2:01 PM – 5 Mar 2018
@nntaleb Isocrates’ Rule of Symmetry: Treat other Nations the Way you Want to be Treated! #SkinintheGamehttps://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-04/us-meddling-foreign-elections-cia-tradition-1948 Permalink 1:17 PM – 5 Mar 2018
@nntaleb The “good” journalist marker: someone who goes against the grain, goes against lobbies: Gary Taubes @garytaubes, Laura Rosen, @dannyhakim … and is ostracized by others for it. Some are heroes. Permalink 12:24 PM – 5 Mar 2018
@TheStalwart Since I believe in having #SkinInTheGame, I decided to confront @nntaleb, rather than just get into a dispute behind keyboards pic.twitter.com/NGhKfYo2Ev Permalink 10:37 AM – 5 Mar 2018
@nntaleb I get every day the confirmation that the only people who don’t despise journalists are journalists and (some of) their mothers. Permalink 10:06 AM – 5 Mar 2018
@FriedrichHayek This conversation between @nntaleb and @EconTalker may be the best Econtalk ever — Taleb and Russ flesh out important themes first introduced by Armen Alchian, inspired in part by Hayek https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty,_Evolution,_and_Economic_Theory https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/econtalk/id135066958?mt=2#episodeGuid=http%3A%2F%2Ffiles.libertyfund.org%2Fecontalk%2Fy2018%2FTalebrationality.mp3 Permalink 7:09 AM – 5 Mar 2018
@nntaleb I got tonnnnnnns of messages from authors thanking me for making journos accountable for their book reviews. In other words, putting back some symmetry with their #SkinInTheGamehttps://medium.com/incerto/the-controversy-around-skin-in-the-game-6d46416ee47f Permalink 7:07 AM – 5 Mar 2018
@jeetsidhu_ “Skin in the Game” really hitting home right now! @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/rwsigzJb5p Permalink 6:30 AM – 5 Mar 2018
@CutTheKnotMath Two Coins: One Fair, one Biased https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/TwoCoins.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/HHhnyGjhkq”> pic.twitter.com/HHhnyGjhkq Permalink 5:09 AM – 5 Mar 2018
@nntaleb I just published “What do I mean by Skin in the Game? My Own Version”https://medium.com/incerto/what-do-i-mean-by-skin-in-the-game-my-own-version-cc858dc73260 Permalink 5:06 AM – 5 Mar 2018
@ericozkan1 @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/wKcCjOtgvc Permalink 4:29 AM – 5 Mar 2018
@georgeeaton Corbyn has “skin in the game”. How Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s new book helps explain his appeal. https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/03/meaning-corbynism ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/iNZ7FDfEn5″> pic.twitter.com/iNZ7FDfEn5 Permalink 4:14 AM – 5 Mar 2018