@LorenzoWVilla Very nice ‘probability’ problem from @CutTheKnotMath (http://www.cut-the-knot.org ): see below @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/YuWaojc9Kg”> pic.twitter.com/YuWaojc9Kg Permalink 9:50 AM – 12 Jun 2017
@nntaleb In other words, methods used to state that people & investors underestimate tail events by psychologists and economists are severely flawed.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/874227041746509824 Permalink 6:02 AM – 12 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The empirical distribution is … not empirical https://youtu.be/0iw9oqnhVKQ via @YouTube Permalink 4:29 AM – 12 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Same problem as Fooled by Randomness & Big Data fitting. The degrees of freedom from man -> crime >> those from crime -> man. (corrected)https://twitter.com/AlanDersh/status/874023573148622848 Permalink 6:32 PM – 11 Jun 2017
@jtynen Taleb is right and shows where we went wrong.. USA was supposed to be 50 … … states! Not 50 provinces or admin. districts … states!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/873990014765592577 Permalink 6:28 PM – 11 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Science isn’t what’s right/wrong. It is what you can backup using a certain method. Applying science outside is “scientism”, a fraud. #GMOs Permalink 2:33 PM – 11 Jun 2017
@nntaleb A scaling property: the larger the state, the more disproportionately powerful the state-within-the-state (a.k.a. deep state). Permalink 12:47 PM – 11 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The sucker overestimates the value of secret information when the important stuff is that huge elephant in front if us all. Permalink 12:25 PM – 11 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Virtue signaling: you give with noise, you take quietly.https://twitter.com/KenMcCarthy/status/873938173319147522 Permalink 10:01 AM – 11 Jun 2017
@nntaleb In 19th C converting was not punishable by death: many politicians took the religion of their constituents (Shehabs, Hashem, etc.) Permalink 4:58 AM – 11 Jun 2017
@nntaleb 150 y ago protestant missionaries started ~AUB in Beirut. They converted exactly 0 Sunnis, only Greek-Orth pple. Preaching does not work. Permalink 4:28 AM – 11 Jun 2017
@nntaleb This technical is an appendix for a more general dynamic approach to inequalityhttps://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46 Permalink 3:45 AM – 11 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Polishing a Gini paper… Why Piketty & Schmugman estimations of inequality are fundamentally flawed. Kapish? https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Gini_paper_andrea_version_2%28NNT%29.pdf Permalink 3:55 PM – 10 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Fractal planting patterns yield optimal harvests, without central control http://phy.so/416233569 via @physorg_com Permalink 10:11 AM – 10 Jun 2017
@nntaleb A large element of the Syrian war is geopolitics (SaudiBarbaria Qatar, US State Dept). That part may be gone.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/873575425037021184 Permalink 9:37 AM – 10 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Indeed, Twitter reveals the person. I have always had mild contempt for “intellectuals”.I now despise them as default, unless proven othrwsehttps://twitter.com/ExMagisterLudi/status/873514934478483456 Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Jun 2017
@Cernovich No “skin in the game,” as @nntaleb would say. There’s no penalty for being wrong, no job loss, no risk. Must be nice.https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/873131220611321856 Permalink 3:16 PM – 9 Jun 2017
@dhavalpanchal “Tinkering is better than Pinckering” -d5 #realworldrisk- w/ @nntaleb & Raphael -title & errors fully owned. pic.twitter.com/ClgqQcC4Zq Permalink 10:19 AM – 9 Jun 2017
@LorenzoWVilla @nntaleb Here we go with a functional equation: proof is needed! :) pic.twitter.com/lkCyHFzdBT Permalink 9:35 AM – 9 Jun 2017
@IntheNow_tweet Saudi Arabia ditching Qatar over terrorism is like McDonalds accusing Burger King of selling junk food @AnissaNow pic.twitter.com/rgmHQ3k99D Permalink 8:00 AM – 9 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Philology du jour: Livanos in Greek (frankincense) comes from olibanum, from Hebrew: לבונה [levona] => the white. Permalink 3:33 AM – 9 Jun 2017
@MaxAbrahms No, that’s been clear for a really long time, as I’ve been saying for a really long time.https://twitter.com/guardianus/status/872855071305936896 Permalink 2:13 AM – 9 Jun 2017
@nntaleb j2 Caucasus-> Anatolia-> Levant-> Etruscan-> Graeco-Mediterranean Except for Levant Indo-European linguisticallyhttp://www.eupedia.com/europe/Haplogroup_J2_Y-DNA.shtml Permalink 5:37 PM – 8 Jun 2017
@nntaleb J2 statisticallt, the Roman army genehttps://twitter.com/vonkronstadt/status/872942896000978945 Permalink 4:34 PM – 8 Jun 2017
@nntaleb What weakened the mafia was internecine fighting. Mobs always fight. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Mafia_War#The_Great_Mafia_War Permalink 9:21 AM – 7 Jun 2017
@nntaleb @VergilDen Permalink 9:13 AM – 7 Jun 2017
@nntaleb If someone’s insults’ bother you; it is evidence that you respect him. Permalink 9:13 AM – 7 Jun 2017
@nntaleb RWRI day 3. 55 participants. Raphael will start confusing them with poly probability models. pic.twitter.com/CLzPglfFeH Permalink 6:05 AM – 7 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The true story about Qatar is money when badly needed: They have a tiny fraction of the population of KSA with ~same financial reserves. Permalink 5:32 AM – 7 Jun 2017
@nntaleb It is impressive how Trump hatred can make some people like @KenRoth rational, realistic, & lucid.https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/872116717991931904 Permalink 4:55 AM – 7 Jun 2017
@dhavalpanchal Lindy effect and implications to technology – day 2 sketch notes /real world risk w/ @nntaleb/ – all errors r mine. pic.twitter.com/mkTZIghj3h Permalink 9:06 PM – 6 Jun 2017
@nntaleb IYI Dawkins doesn’t get that your bathroom is not trying to kill you. We need a filter for “intellectuals”.https://twitter.com/Konstant_V/status/872081628784451584 Permalink 8:02 AM – 6 Jun 2017
@dhavalpanchal Kickass start to day 2 of – real world risk institute – w/ @nntaleb – all mistakes r mine. pic.twitter.com/uWkagPxGlT Permalink 7:02 AM – 6 Jun 2017
@edsanin “The best virtue requires courage; accordingly it needs to be unpopular” https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0 Go read anything from @nntaleb Permalink 5:50 AM – 6 Jun 2017
@holland_tom Although Roman history does suggest that crucifying them along major trunk roads might work as a deterrent…https://twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/871990040389443584 Permalink 4:56 AM – 6 Jun 2017
@GhassanDahhan I wonder why all the Qatari funded MENA experts have been so quiet since yesterday. They’re independent non-partisan analysts, no? Permalink 4:56 AM – 6 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The most shocking thing about Donald Trump’s Sadiq Khan tweet? He’s righthttps://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/donald-trumps-tweets-sadiq-khan-might-unacceptable-theyre-not-futile/ Permalink 4:08 AM – 6 Jun 2017
@nntaleb You are either deluded or a liar. Show me which probability class taught subexponential/fat tails 15 y ago. Likely to be both! Permalink 2:37 PM – 5 Jun 2017
@nntaleb This Mooc explains why most “rational number crunching” abt terrorism is BS. Terrorism is REAL risk.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM Permalink 8:00 AM – 5 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Probability du jour: a crisp demarcation betw thin and fat tails via max entropy. pic.twitter.com/88IYxe4oqQ Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Jun 2017
@nntaleb You don’t cure terror w/police; you reduce terror by NOT creating monsters, supporting Alqaeda in Syria/Libya & Wahabis in SaudiBarbariahttps://twitter.com/spectator/status/871687235787206656 Permalink 4:24 AM – 5 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Many “moderates” are closet Sunni Salafi defenders. They find a way to mitigate events. Despicable scum, this @OmairTAhmadhttps://twitter.com/OmairTAhmad/status/871375058748424192 Permalink 7:41 AM – 4 Jun 2017
@anonchickenshit The internet allowed impolite but extremely logical intellectuals to find each other and remake the world. 1/x Permalink 7:17 AM – 4 Jun 2017
@nntaleb To my friends in the UK, some understanding of the minority rule in the midst of all this media BS could help.https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15 Permalink 6:33 AM – 4 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Engaging with math on twitter causes unfollows; minimizes the intersection betw my followers & those of BS vendors s.a. @neiltyson .https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/871317257439334400 Permalink 6:06 AM – 4 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The best explanation of the British Airways debacle by Gene Callahan. #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/yWA3l4cVGh Permalink 4:59 AM – 4 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The fellow is a Shiite cleric. He is not an exception: they all say the same thing. They are the ones who suffered the most from Salafism.https://twitter.com/Imamofpeace/status/869386075285856256 Permalink 4:05 AM – 4 Jun 2017
@nntaleb False analogy: Irish wanted specific point. Salafis want to destroy you and your civilization.https://twitter.com/0xUID/status/831156444821073923 Permalink 3:57 AM – 4 Jun 2017
@nntaleb “If you want people to read a book, tell them it is overrated”. (Bed of Procrustes)https://twitter.com/SubsidiarityMan/status/871059535208820736 Permalink 10:49 AM – 3 Jun 2017
@trishankkarthik Taking an @nntaleb aphorism from BoP: the more the fake left tries to ignore race / gender / etc., the more they are obsessed by it. Permalink 8:34 AM – 3 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The reason genetic distance A⇿B shd not be symmetric (as is diff entropy): How much info to make a Frenchman out of a Greek ≠ Reverse Permalink 6:49 AM – 3 Jun 2017
@nntaleb ISIS out of Raqqa will go twrds Saudi Arabia. I do not wish to destabilise SA. Just make them stop spreading of Salafism.https://twitter.com/ClancyReports/status/870980158609653760 Permalink 5:39 AM – 3 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The problem isn’t being on a salary. The problem is enjoying it. Permalink 2:45 PM – 2 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The shill is trying to make pple believe that either the Pope (or the Catholic author) is a “Hizbollah guy”. Might work in SaudiBarbaria…https://twitter.com/mohalsulami/status/870723345993650181 Permalink 12:40 PM – 2 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Even @ForeignAffairs now realizes Saudi Arabia is evil hidden under a facade of diplomacy.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/870716791428857856 Permalink 12:33 PM – 2 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The most pleasant phase is when the book suddenly starts to look like a book. You hold the MS as one & smooth it out pic.twitter.com/N4OXBe8ZNl Permalink 9:04 AM – 2 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Monsanto is doing the same scheme over here with other products, fooling the media & demonizing skeptics. Delenda Monsanto.https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/870637946105286656 Permalink 6:58 AM – 2 Jun 2017
@nntaleb In other words EVERY recipient of information has been historically a CONVEYER. Twitter reestablished #LindyEffecthttps://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2 Permalink 3:51 AM – 2 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Some good news. Papers are not Lindy. Info shd be 2-way as per social media, not controlled by monocultured group.http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2624691 Permalink 3:42 AM – 2 Jun 2017