This picture show the effects of the information ratio (that is, benefits/uncertainty or signal/noise) on ruin; ruin is vastly more affected by noise than by the potential benefits or the signal.
(Continuing the previous post).
The Precautionary Principle paper is here
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QIbGFzOXF5UUN3N2c/edit?pli=1
The previous post has not been well digested as people still argued in about “benefits” not realizing the relation (many who did not seem to have read PP and repeated the Russian Roulette fallacy were zapped). Further, it looks like people are still mistaken about the concept behind our PP: it is NOT conservative, as it encourages (actually begs for) risk taking but confines it to safe domains.

via Timeline Photos – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.