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Lindy, Globalism, Nikki Haley, Stiglitz, Pinker, Bitcoin, Futures, Daou, COVFEFE, Olives – Twitter

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@Spfannenschmidt Nassim Taleb eyeing an IYI @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/planetepics/status/941767377540263936   Permalink 3:36 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule in action!https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/941798620159909888   Permalink 3:27 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine Lebanese philology du jour: I want to suggest (based on folk etymology) that the Lebanese “tofshiita” (a bunch of malarkey) has its origins in the Aramaic ܦܫܝܛܬܐ/פשיטה for “simple,” whence the Peshitta 4 gospels come. Thoughts @nntaleb @turlevnon?? Permalink 3:20 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@financequant Globalism fosters points of centralized power which can (seemingly) “optimize” their outputs, creating conditions which work well when they work but which fail catastrophically when they don’t. Optimized systems, in a narrow sense, do not fail gracefully. 1/2https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/941637040235597824   Permalink 9:45 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The 8 different meanings of BR in Aramaic, 2) (and more) pic.twitter.com/va9VrqlmBY Permalink 7:58 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The 8 different meanings of BR in Aramaic, 1) pic.twitter.com/ewdEneUthF Permalink 7:57 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Never met a classicist who understands 1) Semitic philology 2) that times has an arrow that flows in one direction 3) that genetics like paternity tests >> oral history 4) that East-Med (Greek, Anatolian, Armenian & Canaanite) genetics are similar Permalink 7:00 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DUJOUR: Bar-ra in Leb (=outside) from B-ra (Aramaic) actually Akkadian. Barbar-Ru dog (outside wolf). Quest: any connection to βάρβαρος (i.e. outsider ) rather than onomatopeia for incomprehensible sounds? Hint: initially applied to Semitic-speaking Maltese.https://twitter.com/cooleiform/status/941578574666125312   Permalink 6:49 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Yes, expected. pic.twitter.com/nWaL4JECw9 Permalink 6:02 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lindy is closing.https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf   Permalink 5:59 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lindy is not “Lindy” (i.e., prone to the Lindy effect).https://twitter.com/mimisheraton/status/941668302597906433   Permalink 5:58 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb People have the illusion that “globalism” is good for commerce. It is mainly good for commerce by large crony corporations, creating fragility & winner-take-all effects. Permalink 3:52 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A “bubble” becomes a bubble when you run out nonbankrupt people calling it a bubble. Permalink 3:52 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Nikki Haley is a shameless, flagrant, uninformed, clueless, low-IQ BS vendor. We need her out of the UN. Saudi Barbaria has been killing THOUSANDS of Yemeni civilians. Yemen has killed NO Saudi Civilians.https://twitter.com/nikkihaley/status/941405858407305217   Permalink 3:31 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The sad part is that it is true. As demonstrated, a “Nobel” in economics correlates with negative knowledge.https://twitter.com/bopercival/status/941441694951546880   Permalink 3:06 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@JamesMarsh79 Robert Taft was firmly against @R_Thaler and #sunstein pic.twitter.com/UepCX6C3t3 Permalink 11:18 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath To continue the odyssey #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/p8WmwnAF3U Permalink 10:23 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For 10 seconds, I was scared: I thought I wrote the article. That solution is sooooooooo simple. pic.twitter.com/Tkg0xVqH6i Permalink 7:36 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I have not seen anybody provide an argument for why Joseph Stiglitz is socially useful.https://twitter.com/business/status/940577170182696960   Permalink 2:28 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@AStratelates Reminder. pic.twitter.com/G3VlHAQmYo Permalink 8:30 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Deriving the distribution of Bitcoin assuming Log Returns Student-T as specified by @financequant . (There is no PDF for corresponding Stable Dist. For Cauchy set alpha=1) pic.twitter.com/X3ipzfMf6M Permalink 3:04 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb In other words, IYI Pinker @sapinker promotes an article by journo @mark_lynas making pro-GMO “scientific”, when there is NO SINGLE tail risk analysis for GMOs & no single study on consumers, & nothing that’s not Monsanto cooked. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 2:34 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Pinker is clueless about anything that has a 2nd order effect. In other words, about practically everything.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/940978015147823104   Permalink 9:37 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The right link http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  https://twitter.com/greenrupertread/status/940927860499460096   Permalink 9:21 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@phl43 The Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/cd2ac073-a6c7-330b-ba9d-af858ccd4bb3  ) just gave a lesson on how to write a headline that is both intentionally misleading and strictly speaking true. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/OyJshigjxb”>  pic.twitter.com/OyJshigjxb Permalink 7:58 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Comment “sent” la traduction? pic.twitter.com/lci7BqRfmY Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a big quotient #FigureThat #math #probability This is step one towards a harder problem pic.twitter.com/zcu8smEFBe Permalink 5:47 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I am fighting for the rest of the world, particularly the US, to have the fractal, bottom-up properties & the governance of CHF.https://twitter.com/iwangulenko/status/940917836083539968   Permalink 4:17 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Antifragility for CHF is because they used to benefit from turmoil elsewhere –and will hopefully do so in the future. My model country.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/940884210801348608   Permalink 3:43 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Bitcoin seems to fit a Stable Distr, cannot rule out Cauchy! (Collaboration w/ @financequant ) Note that this makes practically any price level possible: whether 100K or 100. pic.twitter.com/IuFxv6D8wO Permalink 3:34 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb My Christmas Class party at NYU Tandon for my fat tails class. pic.twitter.com/E8N9ejGAac Permalink 4:35 PM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Chers amis, quelle est la traduction francaise la plus claire de “bullshit”? (c’est pour mon livre) Permalink 11:02 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@trueThorLund When @nntaleb writes abt taxi driver brother free to have own opinion, I imagine this…https://twitter.com/fredrubinogtfoh/status/940450630904287232   Permalink 10:09 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Is that idiot is representative of a new generation of investors who don’t get that one can make claims about volatility & tails without committing to a direction?https://twitter.com/filip_martinka/status/940510638023069696   Permalink 7:07 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Is it 1) stupid people become financial journalists or 2) financial journalism makes people stupid?https://twitter.com/Williamw1/status/940252203805233153   Permalink 8:13 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb J2 Haplogroup, of course. Permalink 7:36 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Announcement by my Calabrez teachers: Antonio’s is open on Sunday Dec 24. Traduzione: Antonio’s abarberia aperto Domeni(c)ga diciembre 24. pic.twitter.com/5Olht0Syqd Permalink 6:35 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Confusezeus The reaction to Trump’s declaration of #Jerusalem as a capital of Israel is more a reaction against #Trump himself than against the declaration. Here are three former presidents saying the same thing with no fuss to follow.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jg-bxpZWj3I&sns=fb   Permalink 5:57 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Dorin Marghidanu’s Permuted Inequality https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/PermutedInequality.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0K4xZGGvSb”>  pic.twitter.com/0K4xZGGvSb Permalink 5:05 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Shorting a future creates an unbounded liability: you are responsible for all your personal assets. Unlike futures, options have natural sellers: covered calls (hence spreadable into synthetic puts), & they should have been introduced AT THE SAME TIME as the future. Permalink 4:35 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Yarimatahari @RBReich note @nntaleb call for decentralization as a tool against corporate lobbyists https://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-commentary/34273/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Q43LeFZN3N”>  pic.twitter.com/Q43LeFZN3N Permalink 4:29 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The fellow @harrynwilson is actually owning that their headline is a clickbait that doesn’t match the content –treated as fine print. In other words, what charlatans do.https://twitter.com/harrynwilson/status/940181571914657795   Permalink 3:45 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@mikeandallie The most interesting piece of math I learned in 2017 was thanks to @octonion and @nntaleb -> the COVFEFE problem: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/12/11/the-most-interesting-piece-of-math-i-learned-in-2017-the-covfefe-problem/   #math #mathchat Permalink 2:53 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@ido87 @nntaleb Had to smile when I saw this. Antifragility and the development of urban water infrastructure:http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07900627.2017.1369866?journalCode=cijw20   Permalink 1:36 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@John07331405 How India Economic Times reported this tweet: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/shorting-bitcoin-a-challenge-prices-likely-to-top-100000-nassim-nicholas-taleb/articleshow/62019468.cms   Apparently you think it’s LIKELY bitcoin will hit $100k. Permalink 1:12 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Cernovich Schiff was source of the fake CNN story and they have the guy on the very next day. Very Fake Jake!https://twitter.com/repadamschiff/status/939891387130105856   Permalink 3:16 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Note that Bitcoin has a limited number of natural sellers. The entire concept is very concave supply (it costs more and more to extract). The number of producers shrinks with time. Permalink 3:03 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb As usual, fake news. “Properly” is key. Fools “can” short.https://twitter.com/ardavanh/status/939981596865699840   Permalink 2:36 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This form of entrepreneurship [flipping companies] is the equivalent of bringing great looking and marketable children to this world with the sole aim to sell them at age 4. pic.twitter.com/e1mkYsq2Cv Permalink 12:52 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A heuristic for happiness/contentment/good disposition: You are not upset to hear that someone you know has been owning bitcoin since 2011. Permalink 8:51 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@MaxAbrahms So, it turns out the pundits were wrong about Assad and the Islamic State as I’ve been saying forever.http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-abrahms-glaser-isis-assad-20171210-story.html   Permalink 6:09 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Very big point. Futures that don’t have deliverables require a very, very deep market. Otherwise someone long the future can push prices higher at settlement time with impunity, by “locking” profits (never having to resell a deliverable).https://twitter.com/MittCapital/status/939851175435931648   Permalink 5:41 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Generalization of a problem by Maestro Alexander B @CutTheKnotMath (tex file https://www.dropbox.com/s/1m1raueam87sigj/GordianDec9-MarkovChain.tex?dl=0   ) ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uaL5aeuCfA”>  pic.twitter.com/uaL5aeuCfA Permalink 4:49 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We can ignore Daou (as he doesn’t have the basic reasoning abilities to know what a fallacy means); but here is a good puzzle: Daou a Lebanese word (meaning illumination), doesn’t exist in Syro-Aramaic. I cannot find an Ugaritic/Western Semitic root. pic.twitter.com/SMVBDdi3DW Permalink 4:05 PM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A Kafkaesque World. With the inquisition spirit & the criminalization of politics, you will soon wake up every morning with the question: “Which rule I didn’t know existed did I violate yesterday?” Permalink 2:24 PM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Bitcoin: my answer to the repeated questions. No, there is NO way to properly short the bitcoin “bubble”. Any strategy that doesn’t entail options is nonergodic (subjected to blowup). Just as one couldn’t rule out 5K, then 10K, one can’t rule out 100K. Gabish? Permalink 8:05 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr Peter Daou, I exposed a major fallacy in your argument. You respond with two elementary fallacies. Will you respond next with four even more elementary fallacies? Permalink 6:34 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@jeorgen @nntaleb’s fundamental notion: We live in a non-linear world, or else it wouldn’t exist. pic.twitter.com/Ho9e5MiQg1 Permalink 6:22 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@GuruAnaerobic Think of sugar/carbohydrate as a ‘pollutant’. Both Zero-carbers and High-carbers miss this, as well as the difference between acute and chronic.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/939452355505946626   Permalink 3:41 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For those who do NOT understand nonlinearity of dose-response with respect to pollutants: pic.twitter.com/IdhptxbuZ3 Permalink 3:11 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Here, in 2017, we have to watch legal scholar @AlanDersh explain to one (very) intellectually challenged @peterdaou that legal expertise doesn’t equate with supporting Hillary. This is not 2017 BC. This is 2017 AD.https://twitter.com/AlanDersh/status/938774864542031873   Permalink 4:20 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Sorry, this is the one pic.twitter.com/Kr7nKls5Jr Permalink 3:24 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The COVFEFE solution with code. pic.twitter.com/VbtbflpEAh Permalink 3:07 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine The Aramaic lo ta`lan l-nesyuno (with the verb “alel” standing for “enter into” or “lead into”) means precisely “do not let us enter into” temptation: ולא תעלנא לנסיונאhttps://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/939109628847239168   Permalink 4:43 AM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb More details about precaution w/respect to climate. pic.twitter.com/kHEMyUV522 Permalink 9:50 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The author of the manual, Bernard Gui, is the villain in the Name of the Rose. He has a lot to teach the repressive autocratic pseudo-left. pic.twitter.com/5I555sBXfK Permalink 9:12 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb My French publisher has a time-tested manual for those who want to engage in the modern pseudo-leftist inquisition. pic.twitter.com/r7JtQgeiaO Permalink 8:26 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Tartare (Paris) “Jouer sa peau” is the new title. pic.twitter.com/VNs7qNDUTA Permalink 4:47 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@GeertNoels We have only one planet. Even a risk with a very low probability becomes unacceptable when it affects all of us Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/DxsEScu9oX Permalink 11:23 PM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lshaghlé lwa7idé lmfakkrin jéyé minl3arabé hiyye’l “al” (wl jam3 lmaksur). Tel3et Kin3aniyyé. Home run. Permalink 2:14 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb “Jouer sa Peau” “Risquer sa Peau” Permalink 2:12 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du jour: only supposedly “certain” import from Arabic “al” into Lebanese actually from later Canaanite: “hal”, a form still in use, or even “l”. So “l-bét/hal-bét” (the house) it is NOT “al-bayt” (Arabic) or “beyto/a”(Syriac/Aramaic), but EXACTLY Phoenician. pic.twitter.com/1aGLpzbf9P Permalink 12:52 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Les épreuves de mon livre. pic.twitter.com/Mv0uyYaGQh Permalink 12:19 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@byzantinepower Exceptionally erudite article by @DrMichaelBonner on the hybridity of the Classics (inc a war-cry for Aramaic) & a settlement of scores re: @nntaleb & @wmarybeard. A brilliant way to kick off the morning…https://www.academia.edu/35335526/Crisis_in_the_Classics   Permalink 12:08 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Someone in the classics understood me in my bone with Mary Beard! And yes, Aramaic is the West. https://www.academia.edu/35335526/Crisis_in_the_Classics?s=t   via @academia Permalink 1:35 PM – 5 Dec 2017

@elalterego01 @nntaleb . Look what is happening to the people you have uncoveredhttps://twitter.com/mercola/status/938081833765482496   Permalink 8:27 AM – 5 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Henry Corbin’s 4 volume treatise on Shiism. pic.twitter.com/KKpBdc4BX1 Permalink 2:55 AM – 5 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I am now in the Beirut Armenian. Permalink 11:26 AM – 4 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Comparing Beirut(Aleppo) Armenian to Moscow Armenian pic.twitter.com/SOpcKvz2t9 Permalink 11:21 AM – 4 Dec 2017

@nntaleb People get The Minority Rule.https://twitter.com/Bagemin/status/937448013190090753   Permalink 3:05 PM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Tripes Phoenician-style with a Georges Brassens lookalike remote cousin (whose name is also Georges). pic.twitter.com/OzipiTS3ng Permalink 12:05 PM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Orthodox priest in Amioun blessing a meal at a luncheon party. pic.twitter.com/tr3N15QuFQ Permalink 3:18 AM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Respect.https://twitter.com/dpinsen/status/936797826591293440   Permalink 2:06 PM – 2 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Expected time to COVFEFE: part of the exam at the Indian Statistical Institute. cc:@CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/jTpxan518r Permalink 11:09 AM – 2 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Between the Carybde of pseudo-empiricism and the Scylla of postmodernism.https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/936983969744089088   Permalink 10:33 AM – 2 Dec 2017

@primalpoly Are you for or against the @nntaleb poll about whether you’re for or against Twitter polls? Permalink 5:20 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We can see that somewhere between 1% and 65% of my Twitter followers don’t understand the Godel-Popper paradox, or meta-problem that is, that you can’t use electoral system to vote against democracy or that you can’t let Salafis vote in democratic societies. pic.twitter.com/ky6YKh4fqk Permalink 5:09 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Thread opens a BS detection prog: take claim”Arabic/Islamic science INVENTED x”, debunk & show historian misappropriates stuff by Persians/Chaldeans/GrecoPhoenicians/Syriacs. I’ve discussed in ThBlackSwan the lack of evidential rigor among historians. (& note funding by KSA)https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/936573372779106304   Permalink 3:16 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Four hours left to vote, particularly for those against twitter polls.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/936388948338860036   Permalink 11:49 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probability with Factorials https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/ProbabilityWithFactorials.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/tQZRZC9tun”>  pic.twitter.com/tQZRZC9tun Permalink 11:13 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mediterranean vodka. pic.twitter.com/qbuGVqfuQG Permalink 9:33 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The reason crusaders used fat is because olive oil cultivation was not widespread and local to narrow Med strips. Northern Europeans were not representative of Western civilization. They still aren’t fully so. Permalink 7:09 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr Fafinski, it is simple. There were between 60-180 Arab tribes. Banu Ghassan was one of them. Can you generalize to Arabs? More significant, do you know how few the Ghassanids were then? I can’t make you rigorous, I can just prevent you from bullshitting on Twitter. Permalink 6:57 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@EatTheDormouse Prof. Mulder, crediting Arab/Islamic society with ancient Mediterranean or Persian practices is saying we owe the cultivation of maize to American settlers. Highly insulting and anachronistic Permalink 6:34 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The claim by Prof Mulder is even weirder that the word for “soap” in Classical Arabic صابون comes from the Greek σαπούνι (Latin sapo). Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The claim by Prof Mulder is even weirder that the word for “soap” in Classical Arabic صابون comes from the Greek σαπούνι (Latin sapo). Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Here is the distribution of olives. A Mediterranean thing. The Western cultivation came mostly later. Twitter is not a good place for confabulatory and anachronistic statements. pic.twitter.com/GEKMI2S9jK Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb and Byzantines are now Islamic? Permalink 5:44 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb You made a false claim and are now justifying it with …colonialism? Your bogus definition of Islamic covers pre-Islamic cultures, including Jews. Permalink 5:41 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We are discussing an INVENTION after the 7th Century, so please, please, no anachronism. You are a historian. Permalink 5:18 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb To call this an “invention” of the Islamic world one needs evidence it did not predate the Arab invasion of the Levant. Permalink 4:39 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This comes is from a Levantine practice of annointing with oil (Messiach from “wipe”). And do not confuse “shemen” in Aramaic (oil) w/Samen (fat). cc:@stephenniem Permalink 4:38 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This is likely to be wrong. Arabs had no olives. This may be a pre-Islamic Syriac tradition. The usual “appropriation” by Arabs of Persian, Chaldean and Levantine sciences.https://twitter.com/stephenniem/status/936364734235934722   Permalink 4:31 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2nd version (first was 2015). Permalink 3:54 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The expected P-Value Hacking derivations. Fooled by Randomness. pic.twitter.com/ikpaK8u7Nj Permalink 3:53 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Philology du Jour: Historically Lebanon refers to the White Mountain, not the coastal cities, collectively called Phoenicia up to Byzantine times. Permalink 2:17 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Snow slowly covering The White Mountain above Northern Phoenicia. pic.twitter.com/8NWeh1H4zE Permalink 2:13 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Are you for or against Twitter polls? Permalink 4:18 PM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The median academic paper is read by ~ 2 pple. Some economists like Stiglitz have 10^5 citations with negative contribution to society (advice on FNMA/Venzuela is worse than silence). Same with econometrics. Do the math. Permalink 12:24 PM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Not quite the same origins. Levantine is inherited from much older languages than Arabic. I did a statistical analysis of words. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/QHgwHF902s”>  pic.twitter.com/QHgwHF902s Permalink 9:17 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) For instance one may invoke justice and equality to completely open borders between Eu & Africa (or US & Mexico) & call anyone who disagree “racist”. The definition of freedom is more robust. Permalink 6:05 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) freedom of speech is a robust definition, scale invariant, and rigid across time and situations. Justice and other concepts are relative and vary with time, place, and scale. Permalink 5:53 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb As much as I fight Shermer’s bad empiricism & pseudo-rationalism, I support him in his endeavor to promote freedom of expression as the pivotal element of intellectual life.https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/936034793317220353   Permalink 5:35 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb It all starts with writing in the vernacular. And the understanding that the “Arabs” in Algeria are predominantly of Beber origin. Permalink 4:23 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Algeria will probably be the first Arab League “Member” to de-Arabize, renew with its West-Med historical roots. https://algeriepart.com/2017/11/29/conflits-regionaux-lalgerie-dit-non-a-larabie-saoudite/   via @Algérie Part Permalink 1:08 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@_skininthegame Met Nassim “No-BS” Taleb at Kusturica concert in Moscow. Partying with the Russians. Thanks for everything @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/MVzY2lDagg Permalink 7:37 PM – 29 Nov 2017

Lindy, Noah Smith, Sufis, Trump, Greenwald, Pinker, France, Tversky | Twitter

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@CCavafy We the Alexandrians, the Antiochians, the Selefkians, the countless other Greeks of Egypt & Syria, & those in Media, Persia, & all the rest. Permalink 5:23 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The smell of mathematical inequality on Sunday evening. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/pKbrczGMII Permalink 5:05 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Other elementary thing *Former Belgian PM* doesn’t get is Pax Americana in W. Europe, Pax Russiana in E. Not his EU ShmEU bureaucratoBS Permalink 4:46 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For those who can’t see it, here is the link between fat tails and weightliftinghttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/strength-training-is-learning-from-tail-events-7aa2c074569d#.qoo5lopoe   Permalink 8:07 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb He came to take my risk/probability class, and look what happened.https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/833339540630822913   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The point is that you NEVER NEVER gauge wars by FREQUENCY but by INTENSITY. Kapish? Permalink 5:03 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb What I mean by Lindy: she and only she is the real expert.https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.l8mhx964p   Permalink 4:24 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The Lindy effect is Lindy compatible. “Use laws that are old & food that is fresh”. Thanks Constantine @ctheofilopoulos pic.twitter.com/q1Lg5MVK4m Permalink 4:15 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The beauty of mathematical visualization early in the morning @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/nkf7gs9qQB Permalink 2:50 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The hundred years war killed between 2K and 22K per year. Kapish? @surfnm Permalink 2:28 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb This former PM of Belgium doesn’t get that this is, simply, wrong. “Wars” used to be small squirmishes. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1505.04722.pdf  https://twitter.com/GuyVerhofstadt/status/832877334260768770   Permalink 2:06 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Anyone who reads Noah Smith has a problem http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   @DominikLeusder @Noahpinion Permalink 5:36 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I was expecting that Trump would reset the tax code, foreign relations, etc. But I never expected that he would reset the media. Permalink 5:28 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Particularizing from the general; vastly worse @Debradelai Permalink 1:34 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) For Salafis, Islam is immutable law, incompatible w/state. For Sufis, it is ~spirituality, compatible with secular state. @DalrympleWill Permalink 10:05 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Sufis are the future. Unfortunately 1 generation of Saudi Money in Turkey, Syria, etc. eradicated them. Luckily surviving in Central Asia.https://twitter.com/DalrympleWill/status/833004673749626880   Permalink 9:48 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Imbeciles think in words! A universal principle that holds AT ALL SCALES is rigorous. Think before tweeting. @IvarsNeiders @mikeharrisNY Permalink 8:00 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) Humanities academics are rejects w/no common sense substituting thinking w/universal slogans, destroying student’s discernment, reasoning Permalink 7:15 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) Love of humanity doesn’t force you to open your living room to ALL passers by. But you may invite a few. Complex systems are stratified. Permalink 7:02 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Education & intellectualization make people think in Universal terms for local problems, with no awareness of Scalability. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 6:32 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb At starbucks drinking “ethical water”.https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/832639141720551424   Permalink 8:01 PM – 17 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb “We love imperfection, the right kind of imperfection”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) pic.twitter.com/mOxAgid9lJ Permalink 1:48 PM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friday squid ink and mathematics with @a_lesniewski pic.twitter.com/pb181J3xD7 Permalink 10:23 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For Math lovers, #FF Follow Friday: @CutTheKnotMath who makes you work very hard. pic.twitter.com/m0ANxGxwq1 Permalink 8:52 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I watched the press conference. Trump played the press like a violin. Calling this “Meltdown” proves that Huff Post is low-IQ propaganda.https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/832334242843615232   Permalink 5:25 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The unnoticed fact revealed in the press conference: The @realDonaldTrump is heavily lawyered & has lawyered up even more post-Flynn. Permalink 4:49 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@AssalehAmer heuristic: when @nntaleb describe something to be bullshit the odds are overwhelmingly it’s bullshithttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/832257892900282369   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “People reveal much more about themselves while lying than when they tell the truth.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) pic.twitter.com/C8vkkOMqVO Permalink 1:02 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I blocked Louise Mensch for 1) mental incapacity/instability, 2) playing cheap games of sensationalism. @morningj @LouiseMensch @ABarnardNYT Permalink 12:25 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Journos & other idiots are confused as hell by the Donald Trump; don’t get that he may be the *only* recent leader who never had a boss. Permalink 10:52 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) And Saying let’s not fight terrorism because past incidence is low is like saying let’s remove pilots since planes don’t crash @foxjust Permalink 7:28 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Here is the difference between terrorism & falls from ladders seen from Extreme Value Theory @foxjusthttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 6:36 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nice reference to my work @foxjust but Fishhoff NEVER made the distinction Thin/Fat tails, used Extreme Value Theory, mixes tails & variancehttps://twitter.com/BV/status/832201138082574336   Permalink 6:25 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Maybe I should attend the class and make random arguments about what the aphorism meant.https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/832066353167212544   Permalink 5:26 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “Anyone who likes meetings should be banned from attending meetings.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) pic.twitter.com/mrs4mDYWR8 Permalink 5:36 PM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb …imitating the choice of the most overweight male at the table…https://twitter.com/SlimScribbles/status/832000324327976961   Permalink 3:08 PM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb True left (Greenwald) is vastly more rigorous than pseudo-left (NYT, Monsantoistic journos). You can agree or at least disagree with them.https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/831838190541631488   Permalink 4:57 AM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Virtue signaling is the information age’s rediscovery of simony . Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “If you want strangers to help you, smile. For those close to you, cry.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) Permalink 12:45 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb pseudo-left pseudo-intellectual pseudo-lib pseudo-science pseudo-feminism pseudo-Dionysius the Aeropagite.https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/831594603950272517   Permalink 12:25 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mystery of why past planned cities worked: Alexandria, Antioch, Constantinople (semi-planned), Kairaouan, Fustat/Cairo. Where they planned?https://twitter.com/JohnDCook/status/831592910319677440   Permalink 12:18 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule and asymmetry of demand!https://twitter.com/careygillam/status/831550005274148864   Permalink 9:20 AM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Naive empiricism, terrorism & Ebola. Please don’t read the NYT. https://youtu.be/9dKiLclupUM   via @YouTube Permalink 8:42 AM – 14 Feb 2017

@mns yo @nytimes @nytopinion @NickKristof your thinking is faulty, cc @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/UDN5wfuHvB Permalink 11:57 PM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We think alike. From Silent Risk (this was 2014) http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html   @ProbFact ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Z5EuNrH90Y”>  pic.twitter.com/Z5EuNrH90Y Permalink 10:28 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Knows how to handle the difference between evidence of absence and absence of evidence within probability theory.https://twitter.com/gmax1mum/status/831169908440338432   Permalink 8:01 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Interesting story but it doesn’t seem to show in the DNA. They must have converted to Islam. Hitti, Salibi, etc. were fiction writers.https://twitter.com/ByzantineLegacy/status/831012601052135424   Permalink 3:44 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb in 2016, Obama accepted ~11000 Sunni refugees and ~72 Christians frm Syria. Mr @ali_w_ali I am blocking you next to avoid twitter pollution. Permalink 9:06 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Please vote on this tweet (twitter polls don’t allow pictures). Thanks Permalink 8:50 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nigel is spot on. True refugees are *persecuted* minorities, the ones Obama blocked (he accepted 20x more Sunnis in relation to ratios.)https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/830820042736562176   Permalink 8:47 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friends, question for our Fat Tails book with @DrCirillo. Which graph is nicer, top or bottom? pic.twitter.com/wpbWTP6u1B Permalink 7:41 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb This book represents FooledbyRandomness & bullshit vending at its best: Pinker boy misrepresents/did not even understand his OWN data.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/829745377431674880   Permalink 6:59 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Genetics is a dream for bullshitphobic historians. Looks like Phoenicians & Assyrians (not Babylonians) were “Indo-Europeans”. @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/ddwyWy1NlC Permalink 5:10 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Now, you have to choose between 2 competing chief executives. Which one should you pick? The one who looks “professional”? Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Baal invented sushi so people can pay a lot of money for a meal without gaining weight. Permalink 5:07 PM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You have to choose between 2 surgeons in a hospital. Which one should you pick? The one who *looks like* a surgeon or the other? @jamessaft Permalink 12:45 PM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Economist hit a point: when you compare them in effectiveness to stamp collectors, philatelists get angry.https://twitter.com/punkphilatelist/status/830412558779588608   Permalink 5:54 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @HalSinger after so much economics you need to relearn elementary properties of binary relations, such as symmetry many toddlers know. pic.twitter.com/IL9RvuZ2zY Permalink 4:09 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @HalSinger, if someone who has “apocalyptic worldview” likes my book, does it make it apocalyptic? If a prisoners reads my book… #IYI Permalink 3:55 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink and Pugliese wine to rest after REWRI 4 pic.twitter.com/qxRQZkhkDJ Permalink 5:44 PM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Is this true? How do we compute iatrogenics?https://twitter.com/piktograf_mrlol/status/830207020498354176   Permalink 4:23 PM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb REWRI Day 5: “All markets are illiquid when you really, really need them”. Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@KS1729 @nntaleb thought of you when I saw this. complexity of the world vs successive generations of “risk management” pic.twitter.com/bwnySwnN4D Permalink 10:29 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3 instructors at the same time.https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/829731053300486144   Permalink 10:23 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Managing the economy without economists is like managing a war without stamp collectors.https://twitter.com/CNBCTopStories/status/830067141525204992   Permalink 10:21 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb .@poetmorgan1 Expressing yourself in words doesn’t mean you thought “in words”. Kapish? And stop tweeting for Baal’s sake. Permalink 9:40 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb BTW I never say that mathematicians think in “numbers” but in axioms, objects, and inequalities: pic.twitter.com/ov57yBnS4v Permalink 4:33 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) Hence low risks of violence/ unrest. In spite of academics barkings, risk of fighting is much lower under Trump than it was under Obama.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/829669736560599044   Permalink 5:01 AM – 9 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1)Cond. Prob. Conditional on having voted Trump, odds of owning gun is, say 30%. Conditional on owning a gun, odds of voting Trump is >90% Permalink 4:34 AM – 9 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Indeed.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/829517127979823104   Permalink 6:42 PM – 8 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Real World Risk-4, 50 pple: 1) 8 weightlifters (max DL 470), 2) 6 pple who returned, 3) 4 Italians, 4) 1 Canadian and …. 5) no vegetarianhttps://twitter.com/DyedraJust/status/828755748586938368   Permalink 12:55 PM – 8 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Never expected that Antifragile would end up being influential in the White House. But I hoped for it.http://politi.co/2jUtPVp   Permalink 8:37 AM – 8 Feb 2017

@ScottAdamsSays Everything Taleb says is smarter than whatever you were thinking on your own. Especially if you are a word-thinker.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/829028834578202624   Permalink 11:31 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb “There’s A Global Riot Against Pseudo-Experts” Nassim Taleb Exclaims “This Is Not About Fascism” | Zero Hedge http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-07/not-fascism-nassim-taleb-warns-theres-global-riot-against-psuedo-experts   Permalink 10:07 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Which is why I never read and after a mistake never write for @prosynhttps://twitter.com/stan_yurin/status/828947314014302208   Permalink 5:06 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb There is currently a global reaction against the pseudo-expert. Who is the real expert? Lindy.https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.ks4e2m2bj   Permalink 2:35 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness *precedes* Drunkards walk @investomedico . Kapish?https://twitter.com/investormedico/status/828591148696473600   Permalink 5:13 AM – 6 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I systematically decline invitations to conf. discussing “populism” as if it were some type of pathology. Mere term “populism” misframes pic.twitter.com/IGzbnorPDu Permalink 7:51 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb By indiscriminately attacking Trump, even when he does the right thing, the pseudoleft is elevating him & self-destructing. #Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/StephensWSJ/status/828047211762155520   Permalink 3:44 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Remember.https://twitter.com/alphamelville/status/738640536521867264   Permalink 1:52 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb One of my yet unfulfilled predictions is to see the true left fight the pseudo-left over Trump’s foreign policy.https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/828052045701722113   Permalink 6:21 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Syriacs are high J2 and very little J1, meaning Northern Mesopotamians had no intermixing w/Semites. Only language. @zaliin @PZalloua Permalink 6:11 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@BBassem7 This is an amazing exchange. Very courageous of Trump. #FoxNews pic.twitter.com/f0ulhYwoj0 Permalink 6:09 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb If an American entrepreneur is stupid enough to relocate to France, good news. It would improve the average of both counties.https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/827958432955260937   Permalink 11:27 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Greek mytho has Europa from Tyre to Crete, Arcadia frm Ugaritic pple (Arwada). Bible has Canaan son of Ham not Shem. @wunderbearer @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/pxL0YH6sOm Permalink 10:52 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) In other words the claims by Jews that they are different tribe from Cannaanites even if lang same appears true. @wunderbearer @PZalloua Permalink 10:42 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1) Looks like the notion “Canaanites as Semites” is bogus empirically. Both Torah & Greek mythology say they aren’t. @wunderbearer @PZalloua Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb More interestingly, the probability of Koura people being of Arab origin is less than 1 in 1,000,000 @PZalloua Permalink 9:42 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Distribution of Genes of Greek-Orthodox in Koura (Amioun) appears *identical* to Greek Islands/Crete @PZalloua Confirms Byzantine theory pic.twitter.com/SmvKRBCfp5 Permalink 9:29 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Artificial stupidity comes w/ overriding the Lindy-compatible in favor of some bias invented by some ignorant nerd like @r_thaler Permalink 8:57 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A. Tversky once said he didn’t care about *artificial intelligence*,he studied *natural stupidity*. I prefer to study *artificial stupidy*. Permalink 8:26 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1)Historical Intrigue du jour: Phoenicians & Assyrians likely not of “Semitic” ancestry, yet spoke Semitic lang. @PZalloua will have more. pic.twitter.com/Igw0rq9BtT Permalink 5:18 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@BBassem7 #Saudi tweep refers to the terrorist that attacked the Louvre as a “hero” Saudis are not covered by the Trump’s ban. pic.twitter.com/Em28c4M0OY Permalink 2:45 PM – 3 Feb 2017

@normonics Demonstrating the IYI allergy to discontinuities. Tiny changes often beget qualitative shift.https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/826840804660436993   Permalink 9:30 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Actually, they would call it… “the left”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/827503519305519104   Permalink 5:30 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I wonder what the Enlightenment people would call a “Left” that’s authoritarian, repressive, disciplinarian, & despotically normative. Permalink 5:06 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb . @arbedout Before tweeting, think in 2nd order of why I made such statement. Check amazon, it’s #1. Permalink 4:57 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Milo’s book is the highest selling book in America, 2 month before pub! #Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/MarkEGreene/status/827491494068117504   Permalink 4:48 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1) Peace: Top or Bottom? Morrocan gov pro-Israel, but popul. hostile. Iran gov hostile, but not Iranians. Which peace is easier? Think Long Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/CDOCubed/status/827413609877757952   Permalink 3:07 AM – 3 Feb 2017

Pinker, Stewart Brand, Charlatans, Syria, Godel-Popper, Erdogan, Mathematica, Elections | Twitter

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@nntaleb Pinker like charlatans talks to the press but no technical work.@sapinker is a BS artist. https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say  pic.twitter.com/50YrAt70kR Permalink 12:56 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pinker has about every attribute of the charlatan. Nothing short of a charlatan. https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say  https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/765546814384799744   Permalink 12:51 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Steady “Arabization” of Syria, away from its rich Syro-Greco-Aramaic heritage via schooling; shd reverse after Saudi bankruptcy. Permalink 12:46 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 1)The tension in Syria has antecedent:1000 y tension SyroPhoenician Graeco-Roman v/s desert Arabs; cities vs desert.pic.twitter.com/jMvid2I2a3 Permalink 12:33 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Have I ever been subtle with my opinions? @JRLV_Inc Permalink 11:27 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The elephant may misbehave on the occasion (particularly during hormonal episodes) but he is not a predator. Permalink 10:16 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Stewart Brand, you are not a scientist, you are a shrill and a charlatan. @stewartbrand @dawallach @berggruenInst http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 10:05 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Refine your mind, avoiding BS, journos,& statistical noise to the point that a logical flaw/nonsense sound like a jarring note in a concert. Permalink 10:02 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is NOT Pascal’s wager! @carlosortegap http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 9:01 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Rule: No brain surgery for aheadache if painkiller (or a night’s sleep) can do. #GMOs: a risky unscientific scam.https://twitter.com/michaelpollan/status/765248478851239936   Permalink 8:57 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A paper to present to @DrCirillo at his conference in Leiden. With mistakes.pic.twitter.com/O3aA8AvR02 Permalink 8:50 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb IYI (intellectuals yet idiots) in UK condem screening of Salafis but ignore bullying/murder of apostates/hate speechhttps://twitter.com/Iram_Ramzan/status/765261728204587008   Permalink 12:51 PM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Plautus: “Eru’meus elephanti corio circumtentust” My master has the *skin of an elephant* @bradd_libby Permalink 11:27 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Elephant. My favorite animal: takes no crap, gives no crap, harms no-one but when one tries to harm it, never forgets. Permalink 11:18 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Guess (an animal)https://twitter.com/oinkbaamoo/status/765245086619828224   Permalink 11:03 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb All books have animals now in UK @JamesNamorpic.twitter.com/j6LMapwKyN Permalink 10:31 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Thing for squid Ink went too far. Publisher asked “what animal on the cover of Antifragile?” I said “squid!”. Close.pic.twitter.com/bOYrhrwO2X Permalink 10:06 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Tolerance (intellectual): Pagan Gr-Roman>Christian(Orth)~Muslim (Shiite)~Secular> Protestant>Christian (Cath)>Atheist>Muslim (Salafi). True? Permalink 9:56 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Looks like my obsession with squid ink is backfiring, trivializing the philter via mainstream commercialization.https://twitter.com/o_liveco/status/765216026820837380   Permalink 9:11 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb IYI (Intellectual yet idiot) @billkristol w/peers blew up Iraq & Lybia. No apologies, no learning, no #Skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/765154912548294656   Permalink 8:51 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@GhassanDahhan A message from an Algerian woman who was put on a Salafi death-list: No tolerance for the intolerants! (@nntaleb)pic.twitter.com/Zqq2sYZ23l Permalink 2:43 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I just published “Commencement Address, American University in Beirut, 2016”https://medium.com/@nntaled/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b#.bfhrwes8k   Permalink 6:07 PM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Friends, does anyone know this book? “On Monotheistic Violence”.pic.twitter.com/qjxNZTQtoA Permalink 4:48 PM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Much of what we hear on Syria is propaganda by PR firms/Arab journos. For our paper saw War accounts oft unreliable.https://storify.com/MoonofA/how-the-aleppo-hospitals   Permalink 11:59 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Student days.pic.twitter.com/9c4qbugqlJ Permalink 5:30 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Just published “The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority”https://medium.com/@nntaled/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.cq32okfgf   Permalink 5:29 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Godel-Popper rule: No freedom to the enemies of freedom No rights to the enemies of rights No democracy to the enemies of democracy Kapish? Permalink 4:01 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Car ahead of me with SQUIDINK license plate. Trying to make contact, get recipes, restaurant names …pic.twitter.com/40UHd6ypEj Permalink 3:41 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@alancliddell @nntaleb Calvin and Muad’Dib:pic.twitter.com/QeutuwekaR Permalink 3:15 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Salafis in France have the nerve to use French freedom of dress to block antiburkini laws.http://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2016/08/13/le-tribunal-administratif-valide-l-arrete-municipal-bannissant-le-burkini-a-cannes_4982397_3224.html   Permalink 3:14 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ In 1818, the Ottomans beheaded Wahabi boss Ibn Saud, forcing him to listen to music (banned by Wahabis). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdullah_bin_Saud   Permalink 2:21 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb In every undertaking, the more humans try to be demi-gods, the more they become half-monsters. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154053650028375   Permalink 11:12 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I am allergic to the term”contrarian”. Assumes a contrary opinion on everything, the opposite of critical thinking. Kapish? @AlanInterface Permalink 10:06 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pre-1918, 2 centers of Islam: Istanbul v/s Wahabis. West (UK) supported Wahabi revolt. If Erdogan brings back Istanbul, much, much better! Permalink 7:29 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Thou Shalt Not use Publick Service to Collect Speaking Fees. (Skin in the Game)pic.twitter.com/X35gMq2dc0 Permalink 7:05 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Small differences in sigma/errors blow up a 6-sigma by a huge “yuge” amount @D0YouEvenSplash @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/nPeL4uNMwN Permalink 6:32 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Here shows comparisons of convavity between n-iterated logthms and power functions @5upercrabpic.twitter.com/KBPdshFodr Permalink 5:20 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Even if IQ is measurable, tail IQ would not be beyond the category “very high”. (Variance in extremes, Vega/delta)https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/760688453218660352   Permalink 3:24 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Jeff Holman, the incompetent risk manager who went after Antifragile is now w/ @SentientDAI in “intelligent”systems https://arxiv.org/pdf/1401.2524.pdf   Permalink 5:33 PM – 12 Aug 2016

@MarkVirag Wow this is good http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-global-elites-forsake-their-countrymen-1470959258   what @nntaleb would call “no skin in the game”pic.twitter.com/Rrg2kOfLdx Permalink 2:53 PM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Sunk cost fallacy is only fallacy for specific series of independent bets. @rorysutherland @alexvgeorgiev @TriversRobert @jasonacollins Permalink 5:18 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Boris IV, let’s end the cold war and focus on the Wahabi cancer.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/764070804296314880   Permalink 5:16 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb These pple, like 538, are not getting that a poll is an *estimator*, hence tracking error pulls it towards 50%. @tomgg @zhaep @neilchriss Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Math du jour: nesting functions for iterated logarithms, the perfect concave but unbounded function.pic.twitter.com/ohPgT4Zuzs Permalink 4:56 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Olympics: Greek ideal of ἀρετή, at human scale. Circus: exploitation of deformities, unscaled Current Olympics: exploitation of deformities! Permalink 3:23 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pierre de Jean Olivi, 13th Century.https://twitter.com/RichardMoorhead/status/764000633431076865   Permalink 2:13 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Block someone logically defective w/low-self esteem & you have an overactive hater for life: cheapest possible advertising money can buy. Permalink 3:46 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I wish someone could spot an error in the paper. Getting worried as presenting it in 3 weeks!https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/763790101310738432   Permalink 3:30 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@Trader_Moe Taleb has shown it takes only a tiny intransigent minority to rule larger culture: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf  https://twitter.com/WatchSharia/status/763648926889177088   Permalink 12:05 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb OK, now <3%. [correcting # of Protestants in France rose in past 2 decades] Permalink 6:25 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb La trahison des clercs, vol 2. @Roman_Latkovic Permalink 6:20 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Never imagined that, in 2016, people selfdefined on the “left” would be in favor of repression, cronyism, lobbies, elitism, &… Salafism ! Permalink 4:23 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Overconfidence:”I lost money because of my excessive confidence”,Erasmus citing Theognis, Epicharmus @rorysutherlandpic.twitter.com/c5vjFqVrRH Permalink 3:23 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ most erudite men of all time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Justus_Scaliger   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Casaubon   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Bayle   4th is Cath https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Daniel_Huet   Permalink 2:30 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb FactTduJour: 3 out of the 4 most erudite Frenchmen in history: Casaubon, Scaliger, & Bayle were Protestant. Protestants today<1% of France. Permalink 2:17 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Weightlifting is not for thin people. Overoptimized for weight, hence fragile! @JonathanWaxman1 Permalink 2:13 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Psychological findings that are nonBS have to be #LindyEffect compatible http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm   @rorysutherlandpic.twitter.com/tXNAqF4Tpe Permalink 1:58 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Saudi approach: hire a PR firm to “improve their image” rather than just evolve Like Monsanto Anyone interested in perception will go bust Permalink 3:59 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I would stop actually later, at the French Moralists (La Rochefoucault…). See Elster for catalogue. @rorysutherland Permalink 3:47 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The bet: if psychological finding is NOT in the classics <Montaigne, it is not real. Cog disson was in Aesop. #LindyEffect @rorysutherland Permalink 3:43 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Notes on one of Elster’s books. He is the MAIN social science thinker; gets Lindy Effect @avermeule @biillybpic.twitter.com/KMYP3kNCz8 Permalink 3:16 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Yemen, unlike Saudi Barbaria & Syrian “rebels”, does not have a PR firm in DC. Journos are told what is important.https://twitter.com/leithfadel/status/763484556167118848   Permalink 2:56 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Indeed, Eastern Aramaic used as “husband.” <= fertility! @alexshd @funtime_bobby @holland_tompic.twitter.com/oPqOa1NYlb Permalink 2:46 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Baal like Adon (=>Adonis) interpreted as “Lord” in Canaanite. Baal Mammon, Baalat Gebala… “Baal shem tov” = Lord w/ gd name @holland_tom Permalink 2:35 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@CCavafy When they saw Patroklos dead —so brave and strong, so young— the horses of Achilles began to weep. Permalink 6:20 AM – 12 Dec 2014

@CCavafy Ithaka gave you the marvelous journey. Without her you would not have set out. She has nothing left to give you now. Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 Dec 2015

@nntaleb The New Fourth Estate is Wikileaks. You don’t mess with the New Fourth Estate. The Old Fourth Estate, no problem.https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/763380671796678656   Permalink 7:27 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The sicarii were into political assassination, not harming children. @iMetaldog @ayhanusa Permalink 7:17 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The ones on Paganism-to-Christianity I REread is Robert Lane Fox https://www.amazon.com/PAGANS-CHRISTIANS-Robin-Lane-Fox/dp/0394554957/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1470834898&sr=1-3&keywords=robin+lane+fox   and Peter Brown’s https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393958035/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1   @tcoe13 Permalink 6:18 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Another account of early paganism-Christianity: https://www.amazon.com/Conflict-Religions-Early-Roman-Empire-ebook/dp/B007K0QKWK/ref=la_B001K8IPNU_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1470828969&sr=1-2#nav-subnav   @tcoe13 Permalink 4:38 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Derivations of how to make and update election forecasts without BS. Trying @WolframResearch new release Mathematicapic.twitter.com/VSLtigZqz3 Permalink 4:27 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I always block people for Sophistry. Simple allergy. Let me know when a devout Orthodox blows up a bus full of infidel children. @ayhanusa Permalink 3:02 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Salafis preach in schools (incl. in Europe) that Shiites, atheists, pagans, classicists, (often) Christians/Jews are infidel deviants. Permalink 2:37 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb It is NOT racism to discriminate against people dressed according to a sect that discriminates against “infidels”, that is, you. Permalink 2:29 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@lhfang Mike Morrell, CIA director who endorsed Hillary, is literally paid by a Hillary consulting firm for weapons makershttp://interc.pt/1mrWtdg   Permalink 6:50 AM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The “no arbitrage” equality forces the error on binary to ->0 which matchers Brier in discrete 1shots @DrCirillo @foxyforecaster @PTetlock Permalink 1:26 PM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb This is the rigorous proof on way to make time estimates @DrCirillo @foxyforecaster @PTetlockpic.twitter.com/rC3MgfGXDO Permalink 1:23 PM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Literalism: Few pagans believed in the myths. R L Fox see also Veyne (Skin in the game)pic.twitter.com/HHnJcSkUH4 Permalink 5:15 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@DrCirillo Experts (?) who rely on PIT estimates to forecast things they do not understand, and @nntaleb debunking them. Priceless and funny. Permalink 9:50 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Imbecile, it has nothing to do with race but dressing like members of a violently intolerant subsect: Salafism @artaphernes Permalink 3:18 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb There is a .00001 correlation between what I said and this headline. Headline editors …https://twitter.com/yahoofinance/status/762641774707937280   Permalink 2:59 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb If you lower false positives, you cause more risks (false negative). Sorry, pol correct pple, but risk is risk.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/762925184688988160   Permalink 1:42 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Paris is an energy neutral city.pic.twitter.com/7Vnmnv6xR2 Permalink 1:30 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Levantine: ana/inté/inté/hu/hi/nihna/into(n)/into(n)/hinné/hinné. Note é @candela3paz @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:51 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The basics: nun used in NW Semitic as in Levantine. @candela3paz @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlestickspic.twitter.com/5of2FME8SO Permalink 12:45 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Levantine has the same verb forms as Aramaic http://arshama.classics.ox.ac.uk/downloads/Aramaic%20Skeleton%20Grammar%2004%20(Strong%20Verb).pdf   @candela3paz @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:26 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb No, Levantine is from older source than Arabic http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm   @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:05 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Great news: Arabic writing is starting to vanish from Christian areas in Lebanon. A cop had “POLICE” on his shirt.pic.twitter.com/mrYa5w0t3d Permalink 10:37 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb You are NOT getting that your Brier is a Norm L2 distance minimizer. Stop tweeting for Baal’s sake. @PTetlock Permalink 8:46 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Completely wrrrong. The norm L-2 distance is MINIMIZED by lowering estimator variance, Hence my method @PTetlockpic.twitter.com/8kKzVn8pCX Permalink 7:50 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Simulations of election processes over 100 days, in Blue is How to Not Update proba a la @FiveThirtyEight. Clueless!pic.twitter.com/zUfnNTnji6 Permalink 7:24 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Paris: a school named after a high school dropout; rebellious poem on the wall. Did they notice the contradiction?pic.twitter.com/dD2sRoHWLR Permalink 3:16 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Jet Lag: Proved that mean rises for ALL power laws when alpha stochastic, discussion w @financequant, @DrCirillopic.twitter.com/M8dGwDmWLh Permalink 1:10 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) More expamplespic.twitter.com/LtUKpQrJ3V Permalink 12:34 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) a tutorial on standard way to look at elections. Updating proportional to square root of time to elections.pic.twitter.com/gbq1pqtkEJ Permalink 12:26 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb To remove the verbose psychoBS, this is the rigorous way to deal with elections. @AHDidea @PTetlockpic.twitter.com/0mXzIuw17l Permalink 12:23 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A volatile spot makes the binary⇩↑ .50 (4m expiration) to ↓vol of binary (metaprobability) @Chris_arnade. Kapish?https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/762376801209425920   Permalink 2:06 PM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The child of jet lag: how uncertainty makes violence worse, supplement to paper w @DrCirillo (with errors…)pic.twitter.com/aPvl6Dvxcp Permalink 12:24 AM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 4) Quick explanation of mechanism & why @FiveThirtyEight should stop confusing the public. (sorry for mistakes)pic.twitter.com/LghTxDRN3b Permalink 3:12 PM – 6 Aug 2016

BS Vendors, Dostoyevsky, Auguste Comte, Nobel Foundation, Bill Gates, GMOs, Penrose – The Road To Reality,

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nntaleb
Typical initial resistance on the part of Israel/Iran in realizing they will end up fighting on the same side. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/692701879801888768
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692705220145512448
5:46 AM – 28 Jan 2016

nntaleb
7) Saw in a flash why to get “honest” function for fattailed CDF you needed alpha exponent in N but not Fourier tr https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cauchy_distribution
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692650762514493440
2:09 AM – 28 Jan 2016

nntaleb
My explanation of the flaw of “averaging” under nonlinear responses and why much of psychology doesn’t generalize.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/average.pdf
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692641102952681472
1:31 AM – 28 Jan 2016

nntaleb
2/2 The problem is deeper than local averaging: The response by Dawkins clique to Nowak’s math was journalistic. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/nov/07/richard-dawkins-labelled-journalist-by-eo-wilson
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692640422984716288
1:28 AM – 28 Jan 2016

nntaleb
The “Selfish Gene” has been debunked by Wilson/Nowak, & Bar Yam. Links to “averaging” in complex syst #Antifragile https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/692552661598601216
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692634919672029184
1:06 AM – 28 Jan 2016

nntaleb
I meant #skininthegame only learn from those who do what they teach. Ignore others @jsqfunk
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692510656285839360
4:53 PM – 27 Jan 2016

nntaleb
6b)Penrose made me finally get why I fail to “invent” a powerlaw in R without “patches”.Shd focus on Complex:Fourier
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/inventproba.pdf
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692509349831430144
4:47 PM – 27 Jan 2016

nntaleb
6a) His discussion of Euler proper “smooth” function in Re domain vs analyticity in complex=>why no real function on R for fattailed distr
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692508259706654720
4:43 PM – 27 Jan 2016

nntaleb
To learn, learn from those who do it.
https://twitter.com/andybolton1008/status/692472823101677570
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692487377961500672
3:20 PM – 27 Jan 2016

nntaleb
5) He ties together stuff that we never put together. Sometimes just a hint leads to a flash. What is natural/rational number before quarks?
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692433850534891520
11:47 AM – 27 Jan 2016

nntaleb
4) Just reread first 7 chapters on plane to India.
+discovery of math techniques (complex analysis, Log) led to uncovering of the physical
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692433229270405120
11:45 AM – 27 Jan 2016

nntaleb
best quote re Davos @nntaleb “The opposite of success isn’t failure; it is name dropping.”Going to needlepoint it. https://twitter.com/TheMediaTweets/status/691990013601566721
http://www.twitter.com/duffynyc/status/692403911165132803
9:48 AM – 27 Jan 2016

nntaleb
.@kennethminoo The idea is the inverse problem. Imagine yourself having to produce the math that explains reality, no less no more.
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692140970683584512
4:24 PM – 26 Jan 2016

nntaleb
The English approach math a la Newton: less formalisn more coherence @OussamaENNAFII
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692136440877191168
4:06 PM – 26 Jan 2016

nntaleb
3) TRTR shows the exact interplay between math and physical reality. It works like magic. Think of complex analysis=>quantum` probability!!!
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692128164529750017
3:33 PM – 26 Jan 2016

nntaleb
2) Before TRTR viewed the world into: Von Neumann vs Feynman. For VN, a physical was a term in equation. For RF, math could be masturbation.
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692127702153826304
3:31 PM – 26 Jan 2016

nntaleb
1) Penrose’s TRTR convinced me that it takes 10 years to properly real a real book.
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692126825372344320
3:27 PM – 26 Jan 2016

nntaleb
Friends, Let’s start a twitter symposium on Penrose’s monumental TRTR (after 10y of reading it). #lindyeffect
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/691965449815326720
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692121975788081159
3:08 PM – 26 Jan 2016

nntaleb
Someone needs to (gently & patiently) explain to Bill Gates that in real life you can’t reboot to solve a crash. https://twitter.com/GMOInside/status/691563805940256768
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692120293452677124
3:01 PM – 26 Jan 2016

nntaleb
Syllabus of my course at NYU-Tandon @nyupoly: 7 Introductory lectures on Extreme Risk Analytics. pic.twitter.com/NBpX8JRfEu
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/691996457730183168
6:49 AM – 26 Jan 2016

It is a myth that markets are there for the discovery of “the” price.(Facebook)  Markets are there so we can keep changing opinion about the price.
——
In addition, for those who believe in the “wisdom of crowds”, looks like the idea is debunked by the minority rule.

http://fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf

Every century brings the fool (Facebook) who declares that “violence is steadily declining” and that we live in “unparalleled” period of peace (40 years without conflict). And, needless to say, attributes it to some type of progress. This was from H.T. Buckle circa 1857. I was shocked to find Pinker’s words… verbatim. It was not just Pinker’s reasoning, but his words.

The great F. Dostoyevsky debunked it in “Notes from an underground” (enclosed).

A common theme of “positivist-rationalists-scientistic” (that is, promoters of scientism) to believe in “end of”, new man, new society, new something, etc. Just as the “new atheists” believe that if we remove religion and replaced with something they mislabel as “science”, things wouldn’t blow up the planet. Now, looking for some quotes from Auguste Comte who, thanks to his magisterial multi-volume project, “Cours de Philosophy Positive” gave respectability to this turkey problem.
—–
Notes:
1) Dostoyevsky, as an author, had skin in the game. He faced his own execution: he was condemned to death penalty, faced the execution squad, and was reprieved last minute. See in The Idiot the discussion of how a man faces what he think is his last hours of life, promising himself to enjoy every minute of like in the same manner if case he miraculously survives… and forgetting it upon the miraculous survival. Much more on him, later.

2) The Nobel Foundation gave me a fellowhip to go study the statistical properties of violence in Oslo. So I will get deeper into this turkey problem and its sucker narrative.

3) Thanking Daniel Obloja.

When people get rich (Facebook), they lose control of their preferences, substituting constructed preferences to their own, triggering their own misery. And these are the preferences of those who want to sell them something (a skin-in-the-game problem as their choices are dictated by others who have something to gain, and no side effects, from the sale).

I’ve mentioned here the following anecdote. I once had dinner in a Michelin-starred restaurant with a fellow who insisted on eating there instead of my selection of a casual Greek place. People in the restaurant were of the very constipated style, that kind of atmosphere. Dinner consisted in a succession of complicated small things. It felt like work. I left the place starving. Now if I had a choice I would have had some time-tested recipe (say a pizza with fresh ingredients, or a juicy hamburger) in a lively place –for a tenth of the price. But because the fellow could afford the expensive restaurant, we ended up the victims of some complicated experiments by a chef judged by some Michelin bureaucrat (one that would fail the Lindy effect, instead of eating some minute local variation around a progress through Sicilian grandmothers).

(Footnote: Hamburgers are tastier than filet mignon, because of the higher fat content, but people have been convinced that the latter is better because it is more expensive to produce).

The same with real estate. Most people, I am convinced, are happier in close quarters, in a real barrio-style neighborhood, where they can feel human warmth, but when they have big bucks they end up pressured to move into a humongous impersonal and silent mansions, far away from the neighbors. Not counting the fact that their house will be professionally managed like a corporation.

I am saying this because, with the passage of time, I am more and more convinced that very few people understand their own choices, and end up being manipulated by those who want to sell them something. Looking at Saudi Arabia which should progressively revert to the pre-oil level of poverty, I wonder if taking away some things from them will make them better off.

A part man-part animal (Facebook) is vastly more horrifying than a full wild animal. Extremely eerie are monsters who look like humans with small differences.

The uncanny resides in the resemblance, not the difference.

So I finally figured out why I am gripped with so much revulsion at BS vendors dressed in the garb of high priest of scientists, intellectuals, or logicians, (say Pinker or Shermer or Harris or some scientist under Monsanto’s control), to the point of total maddening anger, and why I do not experience any disgust when I see a fortune teller, a market commentator, or some new age meditation guru such as Deepak Chopra.

FRIDAY QUIZ.(Facebook)
“People of high intelligence are ethical. We find fewer intelligent people among criminals.”
Spot the nonsense in the sentence.

When I was a quant-trader (Facebook), my trading colleagues talked about books, ideas, and quants talked about probability and mathematics. Now that I am in the “ideas” profession, my academic colleagues discuss office space, and my writing colleagues talk about book agents, speakers bureaus and copyrights. Professional mathematicians talk about grants and amateur ones about Godel.

The Fermi Paradox and the Hubris Hypothesis

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The Fermi Paradox and the Hubris Hypothesis.
The great Enrico Fermi proposed the following paradox. Given the size of the universe and evidence of intelligent life on Earth making it non-zero probability for intelligent life elsewhere, how come have we not been visited by aliens? “Where is everybody?”, he asked. No matter how minute the probability of such life, the size should bring the probability to 1. (In fact we should have been visited a high number of times: see the Kolmogorov and Borel zero-one laws.)
Plenty of reasons have been offered; a hypothesis is that:
+ With intelligence comes hubris in risk-taking hence intelligent life leads to extinction.
+ As technology increases, misunderstanding of ruin by a small segment of the population is sufficient to guarantee ruin.
Think how close humanity was to extinction in the 1960s with several near-misses of nuclear holocausts. Think of humans as intelligent enough to do genetic modifications of the environment with GMOs but not intelligent enough to realize that we do not understand complex causal links. Many like Steven Pinker are intelligent enough to write a grammatical sentence but not intelligent enough to distinguish between absence of evidence and evidence of absence. We are intelligent enough to conceive of political and legal systems but let lobbyists run them. Humans are like children intelligent enough to unscrew a computer but not enough to avoid damaging it. And we are intelligent enough to produce information but unable to use it and get chronically fooled by randomness in some domain (even when aware of it in other domains). +
Acknowledgments: I thank Alessandro Riolo.

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