Tag Archives: Piketty

Piketty, Schmugman, Qatar, Dawkins, British Airways, Saudi Arabia | Twitter

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@LorenzoWVilla Very nice ‘probability’ problem from @CutTheKnotMath (http://www.cut-the-knot.org  ): see below @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/YuWaojc9Kg”>  pic.twitter.com/YuWaojc9Kg Permalink 9:50 AM – 12 Jun 2017

@nntaleb In other words, methods used to state that people & investors underestimate tail events by psychologists and economists are severely flawed.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/874227041746509824   Permalink 6:02 AM – 12 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The empirical distribution is … not empirical https://youtu.be/0iw9oqnhVKQ   via @YouTube Permalink 4:29 AM – 12 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Same problem as Fooled by Randomness & Big Data fitting. The degrees of freedom from man -> crime >> those from crime -> man. (corrected)https://twitter.com/AlanDersh/status/874023573148622848   Permalink 6:32 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@jtynen Taleb is right and shows where we went wrong.. USA was supposed to be 50 … … states! Not 50 provinces or admin. districts … states!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/873990014765592577   Permalink 6:28 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Science isn’t what’s right/wrong. It is what you can backup using a certain method. Applying science outside is “scientism”, a fraud. #GMOs Permalink 2:33 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb A scaling property: the larger the state, the more disproportionately powerful the state-within-the-state (a.k.a. deep state). Permalink 12:47 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The sucker overestimates the value of secret information when the important stuff is that huge elephant in front if us all. Permalink 12:25 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Virtue signaling: you give with noise, you take quietly.https://twitter.com/KenMcCarthy/status/873938173319147522   Permalink 10:01 AM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb In 19th C converting was not punishable by death: many politicians took the religion of their constituents (Shehabs, Hashem, etc.) Permalink 4:58 AM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb 150 y ago protestant missionaries started ~AUB in Beirut. They converted exactly 0 Sunnis, only Greek-Orth pple. Preaching does not work. Permalink 4:28 AM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb This technical is an appendix for a more general dynamic approach to inequalityhttps://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 3:45 AM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Polishing a Gini paper… Why Piketty & Schmugman estimations of inequality are fundamentally flawed. Kapish? https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Gini_paper_andrea_version_2%28NNT%29.pdf   Permalink 3:55 PM – 10 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Fractal planting patterns yield optimal harvests, without central control http://phy.so/416233569   via @physorg_com Permalink 10:11 AM – 10 Jun 2017

@nntaleb A large element of the Syrian war is geopolitics (SaudiBarbaria Qatar, US State Dept). That part may be gone.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/873575425037021184   Permalink 9:37 AM – 10 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Indeed, Twitter reveals the person. I have always had mild contempt for “intellectuals”.I now despise them as default, unless proven othrwsehttps://twitter.com/ExMagisterLudi/status/873514934478483456   Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Jun 2017

@Cernovich No “skin in the game,” as @nntaleb would say. There’s no penalty for being wrong, no job loss, no risk. Must be nice.https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/873131220611321856   Permalink 3:16 PM – 9 Jun 2017

@dhavalpanchal “Tinkering is better than Pinckering” -d5 #realworldrisk- w/ @nntaleb & Raphael -title & errors fully owned. pic.twitter.com/ClgqQcC4Zq Permalink 10:19 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@LorenzoWVilla @nntaleb Here we go with a functional equation: proof is needed! :) pic.twitter.com/lkCyHFzdBT Permalink 9:35 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@IntheNow_tweet Saudi Arabia ditching Qatar over terrorism is like McDonalds accusing Burger King of selling junk food @AnissaNow pic.twitter.com/rgmHQ3k99D Permalink 8:00 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Philology du jour: Livanos in Greek (frankincense) comes from olibanum, from Hebrew: לבונה [levona] => the white. Permalink 3:33 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@MaxAbrahms No, that’s been clear for a really long time, as I’ve been saying for a really long time.https://twitter.com/guardianus/status/872855071305936896   Permalink 2:13 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@nntaleb j2 Caucasus-> Anatolia-> Levant-> Etruscan-> Graeco-Mediterranean Except for Levant Indo-European linguisticallyhttp://www.eupedia.com/europe/Haplogroup_J2_Y-DNA.shtml   Permalink 5:37 PM – 8 Jun 2017

@nntaleb J2 statisticallt, the Roman army genehttps://twitter.com/vonkronstadt/status/872942896000978945   Permalink 4:34 PM – 8 Jun 2017

@nntaleb What weakened the mafia was internecine fighting. Mobs always fight. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Mafia_War#The_Great_Mafia_War   Permalink 9:21 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb @VergilDen Permalink 9:13 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb If someone’s insults’ bother you; it is evidence that you respect him. Permalink 9:13 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb RWRI day 3. 55 participants. Raphael will start confusing them with poly probability models. pic.twitter.com/CLzPglfFeH Permalink 6:05 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The true story about Qatar is money when badly needed: They have a tiny fraction of the population of KSA with ~same financial reserves. Permalink 5:32 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb It is impressive how Trump hatred can make some people like @KenRoth rational, realistic, & lucid.https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/872116717991931904   Permalink 4:55 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@dhavalpanchal Lindy effect and implications to technology – day 2 sketch notes /real world risk w/ @nntaleb/ – all errors r mine. pic.twitter.com/mkTZIghj3h Permalink 9:06 PM – 6 Jun 2017

@nntaleb IYI Dawkins doesn’t get that your bathroom is not trying to kill you. We need a filter for “intellectuals”.https://twitter.com/Konstant_V/status/872081628784451584   Permalink 8:02 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@dhavalpanchal Kickass start to day 2 of – real world risk institute – w/ @nntaleb – all mistakes r mine. pic.twitter.com/uWkagPxGlT Permalink 7:02 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@edsanin “The best virtue requires courage; accordingly it needs to be unpopular” https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Go read anything from @nntaleb Permalink 5:50 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@holland_tom Although Roman history does suggest that crucifying them along major trunk roads might work as a deterrent…https://twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/871990040389443584   Permalink 4:56 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@GhassanDahhan I wonder why all the Qatari funded MENA experts have been so quiet since yesterday. They’re independent non-partisan analysts, no? Permalink 4:56 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The most shocking thing about Donald Trump’s Sadiq Khan tweet? He’s righthttps://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/donald-trumps-tweets-sadiq-khan-might-unacceptable-theyre-not-futile/   Permalink 4:08 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@nntaleb You are either deluded or a liar. Show me which probability class taught subexponential/fat tails 15 y ago. Likely to be both! Permalink 2:37 PM – 5 Jun 2017

@nntaleb This Mooc explains why most “rational number crunching” abt terrorism is BS. Terrorism is REAL risk.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 8:00 AM – 5 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Probability du jour: a crisp demarcation betw thin and fat tails via max entropy. pic.twitter.com/88IYxe4oqQ Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Jun 2017

@nntaleb You don’t cure terror w/police; you reduce terror by NOT creating monsters, supporting Alqaeda in Syria/Libya & Wahabis in SaudiBarbariahttps://twitter.com/spectator/status/871687235787206656   Permalink 4:24 AM – 5 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Many “moderates” are closet Sunni Salafi defenders. They find a way to mitigate events. Despicable scum, this @OmairTAhmadhttps://twitter.com/OmairTAhmad/status/871375058748424192   Permalink 7:41 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@anonchickenshit The internet allowed impolite but extremely logical intellectuals to find each other and remake the world. 1/x Permalink 7:17 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb To my friends in the UK, some understanding of the minority rule in the midst of all this media BS could help.https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 6:33 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Engaging with math on twitter causes unfollows; minimizes the intersection betw my followers & those of BS vendors s.a. @neiltyson .https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/871317257439334400   Permalink 6:06 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The best explanation of the British Airways debacle by Gene Callahan. #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/yWA3l4cVGh Permalink 4:59 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The fellow is a Shiite cleric. He is not an exception: they all say the same thing. They are the ones who suffered the most from Salafism.https://twitter.com/Imamofpeace/status/869386075285856256   Permalink 4:05 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb False analogy: Irish wanted specific point. Salafis want to destroy you and your civilization.https://twitter.com/0xUID/status/831156444821073923   Permalink 3:57 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb “If you want people to read a book, tell them it is overrated”. (Bed of Procrustes)https://twitter.com/SubsidiarityMan/status/871059535208820736   Permalink 10:49 AM – 3 Jun 2017

@trishankkarthik Taking an @nntaleb aphorism from BoP: the more the fake left tries to ignore race / gender / etc., the more they are obsessed by it. Permalink 8:34 AM – 3 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The reason genetic distance A⇿B shd not be symmetric (as is diff entropy): How much info to make a Frenchman out of a Greek ≠ Reverse Permalink 6:49 AM – 3 Jun 2017

@nntaleb ISIS out of Raqqa will go twrds Saudi Arabia. I do not wish to destabilise SA. Just make them stop spreading of Salafism.https://twitter.com/ClancyReports/status/870980158609653760   Permalink 5:39 AM – 3 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The problem isn’t being on a salary. The problem is enjoying it. Permalink 2:45 PM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The shill is trying to make pple believe that either the Pope (or the Catholic author) is a “Hizbollah guy”. Might work in SaudiBarbaria…https://twitter.com/mohalsulami/status/870723345993650181   Permalink 12:40 PM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Even @ForeignAffairs now realizes Saudi Arabia is evil hidden under a facade of diplomacy.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/870716791428857856   Permalink 12:33 PM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The most pleasant phase is when the book suddenly starts to look like a book. You hold the MS as one & smooth it out pic.twitter.com/N4OXBe8ZNl Permalink 9:04 AM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Monsanto is doing the same scheme over here with other products, fooling the media & demonizing skeptics. Delenda Monsanto.https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/870637946105286656   Permalink 6:58 AM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb In other words EVERY recipient of information has been historically a CONVEYER. Twitter reestablished #LindyEffecthttps://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 3:51 AM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Some good news. Papers are not Lindy. Info shd be 2-way as per social media, not controlled by monocultured group.http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2624691   Permalink 3:42 AM – 2 Jun 2017

Inequality vs Inequality | Medium

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Inequality vs Inequality

There is inequality and inequality.

The first is the inequality people tolerate, such as one’s understanding compared to that of people deemed heroes, say Einstein, Michelangelo, or the recluse mathematician Grisha Perelman, in comparison to whom one has no difficulty acknowledging a large surplus. This applies to entrepreneurs, artists, soldiers, heroes, the singer Bob Dylan, Socrates, the current local celebrity chef, some Roman Emperor of good repute, say Marcus Aurelius; in short those for whom one can naturally be a “fan”. You may like to imitate them, you may aspire to be like them; but you don’t resent them.

@FiveThirtyEight, Salafis Jihadists, Amioun, Piketty, Averroes, Kadisha Valley, The Right | Twitter

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@nntaleb Bingo! Option traders get it! When probabilities are stochastic, they become ~.50. And they don’t move fast!https://twitter.com/VlanciPictures/status/762036480466415617   Permalink 2:25 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 3) More technically, when the variance of the probability is v. high it converges to 50%. Kapish? (metaprobability). Permalink 2:13 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ So @FiveThirtyEight is showing us a textbook case on how to be totally *clueless* about probability yet make a business in it. Permalink 2:11 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 1/@FiveThirtyEight : 55% “probability” for Trump then 20% 10 d later, not realizing their “probability” is too stochastic to be probability. Permalink 2:09 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Cont “This thing we call religion” https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154031983368375  pic.twitter.com/kvFnQKeYdd Permalink 1:29 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (To hide truth is to hide gold) la vérité est cachee au fond du puits Σιγάν την αλήθειαν χρυσόν εστι θάπτεινhttps://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/761981751656849408   Permalink 11:57 AM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Bon on recommence: Le grand ne rappetisse pas Le petit n’aggrandit pas Permalink 1:05 AM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Infallible way to catch Salafis Jihadists at a checkpoint: ask them to crack a joke.Salafis, by definition, are devoid of any sense of humor Permalink 11:51 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb In French it works well @ArmandDAngour : Le grand ne rappetit pas Le petit n’aggrandit pas Permalink 3:26 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The small will never make you feel great; the great will never make you fee small. ( الزغير ما بكبٌر والكبير ما بزغٌر) Better translation Permalink 3:09 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The small can’t see greatness; the great doesn’t know smallness. ( الزغير ما بكبٌر والكبير ما بزغٌر)https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/761679663001468929   Permalink 3:02 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Ez z’3ir ma bi kabber w l’kbir ma mi za’3’3er. Permalink 2:45 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb To assume that academic economists are “experts” on anything requires total empirical blindness. @yoramdw @JustinWolfers Permalink 8:28 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (Skin in the Game) Permalink 8:23 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb This IYI (Intellectual yet Idiot) doesn’t realize absence of academic economists is a very positive thing.#realworldhttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/761536433756798976   Permalink 8:22 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A pilgrimage to my great-gr-gr-gr-gr-grandfather’s house in Amiounpic.twitter.com/sD9XZkOuYD Permalink 7:01 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Proper statistical causation: Take a cohort of readers & PREVENT some randomly selected from reading. Kapish? @amsterdamtrader @Silva Permalink 5:36 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Rohan, the NYT idiots (IYI) got it backward. Those who live longer necessarily have a longer functioning intellectual/visual ability @Silva Permalink 5:15 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb In distributed environments: Militias >>armies, commandos >>tanks Groups(Hayekian) >>Soviet & farmers >> Monsanto!https://twitter.com/MKM_Abdul/status/761409231304077312   Permalink 3:10 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb As to the Gini, fugedaboudit. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/GINI-1.pdf   @NessimAitKacimi Permalink 3:03 PM – 4 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Piketty more than challenged: in addition his measure of inequality is flawed @NessimAitKacimipic.twitter.com/Kw2yuN09CH Permalink 2:55 PM – 4 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The problem w Mainstream Media: unlike book authors, journos are mostly worried about the opinions of other journos, not those of readers. Permalink 2:20 AM – 4 Aug 2016

@G_Exercitus How can @zerohedge be more professional than MSM? @joshua_landis @MaxAbrahms @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/761079273704665089   Permalink 1:03 AM – 4 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Factdujour: Averroes (IbnRushd) was unpublished in Arabic bef 1859, while 100s of eds in Latin! [The grrrreat Renan]pic.twitter.com/MVyHxN1hXB Permalink 4:37 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb IYI don’t get techné-epistemé: scientist making statements abt practical matters is not like a plumber on plumbing.https://twitter.com/AcademicsSay/status/760969384106029057   Permalink 3:46 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Mala grammatica non vitiat chartam @dottorpax Permalink 3:37 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb If I ran for office, I’d avoid public statements that don’t entail personal risks in making them. Permalink 3:04 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Max knows his stuff.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/760850229029539840   Permalink 10:19 AM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Kadisha Valley near Ehden, 19 km from Amioun (and 20 degrees F cooler).pic.twitter.com/i99s0M4PaC Permalink 7:05 AM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb We don’t know what we talk about when we say “Religion”. Salafis (& most atheists) take religion literally.pic.twitter.com/I1ZhUT3ye6 Permalink 8:26 AM – 2 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Indians left to starve in Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/assaadrazzouk/status/760130259119443968   Permalink 10:26 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2) So have some imagination and do not rule out a two-way mess in Europe.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/760139675713634304   Permalink 8:48 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@nntaleb As a child,I never imagined that Sunni girls wd trade miniskirts for hijab & boys would blow themselves up to get on GoogleNews. #BlackSwan Permalink 8:46 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@lukasnaugle “You can’t have 1) voting rights, 2) social media, and 3) patronizing elite at once…” @nntaleb Permalink 5:22 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@nntaleb My prediction, particularly for Europe. Eventually, violence never stays 1-way. (@zerohedge )pic.twitter.com/ELbVMmQrIb Permalink 6:36 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Finally, results for the preasymptotics of semi-fat tailed & fat tailed distributions for @DrCirillo’s conferencepic.twitter.com/b7POA4952o Permalink 4:39 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Enough mass to do a …coup in Germany?https://twitter.com/MilenaRodban/status/759879379220475904   Permalink 3:48 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@joshua_landis As the Saudis Covered Up Abuses in Yemen, America Stood Byhttp://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/saudi-arabia-yemen-russia-syria-foreign-policy-united-nations-blackmail-214124   Permalink 12:58 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Localismhttps://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/759779327428923392   Permalink 12:11 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@ideallyspace @nntalebpic.twitter.com/ISqpg2kgN6 Permalink 3:43 AM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Right wants one $ one vote. The IYI (intellectual yet idiot) Left wants one degree one vote. The rest of us want one person one vote. Permalink 1:46 PM – 30 Jul 2016

GMOs, Putin, Downloading, Piketty, Dupire, Monotheism, Doctorow, Daesh, Cossaks

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https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/669595838721744896

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/669283245310255105

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/669217274788782080

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/669209330563072000

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/669191065942011904

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/669166286711078913

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/669126702220640256

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/669120073316106241

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/668934216625860608

Retweeted by NNT

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/668463106058805248

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/668404167426318336

THE ETHICS OF DEBATING (Facebook)
or
HOW TO NOT BE A CHARLATAN
(revision of earlier discussion)

You can attack what a person *said* or what the person *meant*. The former is more sensational. The mark of a charlatan is to defend his position or attack a critic by focusing on *some* of his/her specific statement (“look at what he said”) rather than attacking his position (“look at what he means” or, more broadly, “look at what he stands for”), the latter of which requires a broader knowledge of the proposed idea. Note that the same applies to the interpretation of religious texts.

Given that it is impossible for anyone to write a perfectly rationally argued document without a segment that, out of context, can be transformed by some dishonest copywriter to appear totally absurd and lend itself to sensationalization, politicians and charlatans hunt for these segments. “Give me a few lines written by any man and I will find enough to get him hung” goes the saying attributed to Richelieu, Voltaire, Talleyrand, a vicious censor during the French revolution phase of terror, and others.

I take any violation by an intellectual as a disqualification, some type of disbarment –same as stealing is a disbarment in commercial life. It is actually a violation of journalistic ethics, but not enforced outside of main fact-checking newspapers.[Note 1]

Take for instance the great Karl Popper: he always started with an unerring representation of the opponents positions, often exhaustive, as if he were marketing them as his own ideas, before proceededing to systematically destroy them. Or take Hayek’s diatribes “contra” Keynes and Cambridge: at no point there is a single line misrepresenting Keynes or an overt attempt at sensationalizing*. [**I have to say that it helped that people were too intimidated by Keynes’ intellect to trigger his ire.]

Read Aquinas, written 8 centuries ago, and you always see sections with QUESTIO->PRAETERIA, OBJECTIONES, SED CONTRA, etc. describing with a legalistic precision the positions being challenged and looking for a flaw in them and a compromise. That was the practice by intellectuals.

Twitter lends itself to these sensationalized framing: someone can extract the most likely to appear absurd and violating the principle of charity. So we get a progressive debasing of intellectual life with the rise of the media, needing some sort of policing.

Note the associated reliance of *straw man* arguments by which one not only extracts a comment but *also* provides an interpretation, promoting misinterpretation. I consider *straw man* no different from theft.

COMMENTS
I just subjected the *principle of charity* as presented in philosopy to the Lindy test: it is only about 60 years old. Why? Does it meant that it is transitory? Well, we did not need it explicitly before before discussions were never about slogans and snapshots but synthesis of a given position.

An answer came as follows. Bradford Tuckfield (earlier post) wrote: ” I think this principle is much older than 60 years. Consider in the book of Isaiah, chapter 29, verse 21: he denounces the wicked who “make a man an offender for a word,” implying that people were focusing on specific words rather than positions, and that this is a bad practice.”
So it seems that the Lindy effect wins. In fact as with other things, if the principle of charity had to become a principle, it is because an old practice had to have been abandoned.

Thanks Tredag Brajovic for the Richelieu story.

[Note 1: Journos seem to make the mistake but freak out when caught –they have fragile reputations and tenuous careers. I was misinterpreted in my positions on climate change in a discussion with David Cameron in 2009 (presenting them backwards) and when I complained, the editors were defensive and very apologetic, the journos went crazy when I called them “unethical”, some begged me to retract my accusation.]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_charity

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/668106085413318657

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/668087512947146752

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/668078910467371008

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/667939008136290304

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/667793308446519296

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/667735168044634112

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/667729776069754880

 

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/667728755822055424

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/667721159648133120

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/667391367535075328

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/667048710514286592

After a 800K circulation the previous post about the root of the problem was picked up by Politico. (Facebook)

http://www.politico.eu/…/the-saudi-wahhabis-are-the-real-f…/

The Saudi Wahhabis are the real foe
We must take our fight to the preachers and financiers of terror.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/666292678213136386

On the Super-Additivity and Estimation Biases of Quantile Contributions

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On the Super-Additivity and Estimation Biases of Quantile Contributions

Nassim N Taleb, Raphael Douady
(Submitted on 8 May 2014 (v1), last revised 12 Nov 2014 (this version, v3))
Sample measures of top centile contributions to the total (concentration) are downward biased, unstable estimators, extremely sensitive to sample size and concave in accounting for large deviations. It makes them particularly unfit in domains with power law tails, especially for low values of the exponent. These estimators can vary over time and increase with the population size, as shown in this article, thus providing the illusion of structural changes in concentration. They are also inconsistent under aggregation and mixing distributions, as the weighted average of concentration measures for A and B will tend to be lower than that from A U B. In addition, it can be shown that under such fat tails, increases in the total sum need to be accompanied by increased sample size of the concentration measurement. We examine the estimation superadditivity and bias under homogeneous and mixed distributions.

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via [1405.1791] On the Super-Additivity and Estimation Biases of Quantile Contributions.