Nassim Nicholas Taleb: “you should study risk taking, not risk management”

@naniiyer @nntaleb Research is catching up to what you have always said https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/04/well/move/even-a-little-weight-training-may-cut-the-risk-of-heart-attack-and-stroke.html?smid=fb-nytimes   Permalink 3:20 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Rory lexktchring. Employees try to minimize blame. #skininthegame Note the socks. pic.twitter.com/yHtCSs9lOe Permalink 1:59 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@nntaleb You can raise the lettrine but not done in ancient Mss. pic.twitter.com/w8HkMKuU4S Permalink 12:19 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #TariffMan @POTUS @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/MGDyg5wKUo Permalink 11:43 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The point is that economists and psychologists, just like astrologers and fortune tellers shd NEVER be pit in the same category as real scientists and thinkers. Gabish? https://twitter.com/rafael_060_/status/1070355057554714625   Permalink 8:36 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Colors are Lindy. In the musée de Cluny. pic.twitter.com/CoSOi7MFJb Permalink 8:30 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The Sveriges riksbank officially denies appointing the “Nobel” in economics, deflecting the “IYI” accusation, shifting the blame to (the economists in) the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. But his magesty told me personally it was “not a Nobel, but a Swedish Riksbank prize” pic.twitter.com/LSD8i3roaX Permalink 7:47 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I wonder if the Lettrine format at the beginning of chapters works for the new book. pic.twitter.com/62pTH5wfv2 Permalink 6:44 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Lindy https://twitter.com/JoshHochschild/status/1070016645769375744   Permalink 6:43 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@JulianKirby No #pseudos here..straight talking from @nntaleb to a packed house at #RiskMinds this morning..#skininthegame pic.twitter.com/PvOBNX5QzQ Permalink 12:27 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@ErikSchatzker Question for @black_swan_man: Is Tariff Man friend or foe? cc @nntaleb Permalink 11:24 AM – 4 Dec 2018

@JoshHochschild Example from Cajetan’s commentary on St. Thomas’s Summa Theologiae. pic.twitter.com/7H85uoLT7e Permalink 10:07 AM – 4 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I found the drift in meaning: “covetous” in Hebrew means “praiseworthy” in other Semitic languages. Permalink 10:32 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Philological Mystery du Jour: The root 7MD for לא תחמוד in the 10 Cmdmts doesn’t seem to match the meaning of the Arabic (حمد, with names like 7amid, M7mud, etc). And in Syriac texts the 10th C is ܠܐ ܬܪܓ Are they the same root? Thanks for the help. @Jonassibony @PhDniX Permalink 10:10 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The tradition of presenting a cental text surrounded by commentary is not limited to (post Rashi) Talmudic. Below + Erasmus, ~ 1515 (In Praise of Folly) + Talmud, 1482, Guadalajara, + Eramus, @BellesLettresEd, 2018 bilingual edition Figured out how to do it in LaTeX. #Lindy pic.twitter.com/obyOCOaZrl Permalink 8:56 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ DO ML METHODS AND EXPLANATORY VARIABLES IMPROVE FORECASTING ACCURACY ABOVE THAT OF PURE TIME SERIES MODELS? THE EVIDENCE IS NOT CLEAR! Permalink 7:46 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Paris is quiet this morning. The side effect of the riots: hotel employees are very, very humble. Permalink 1:42 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/JH1PlURgrc Permalink 1:32 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Moscow bookstore https://twitter.com/khazbi_budunov/status/1069473028856311813   Permalink 12:09 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@thomasjbevan1 ‘He is assessed by other professors, not readers. Zero skin in the game.’ I’m sure @nntaleb would agree. Academia seems to be largely a job scheme from what I can tell. Digging holes to fill them back up again https://twitter.com/meditative_man/status/1067607889529860096   Permalink 7:12 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@GareBearTheFair I swear to God @nntaleb is a Bible translator for secularists, and nobody knows it Permalink 5:23 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@nntaleb A Math problem with tricks. pic.twitter.com/Y7LHUPE4Vg Permalink 3:07 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Members of Congress and other rent seekers should NOT have a taxpayer subsidized/sponsored/arranged health plan. They should get one on their own. #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/ocasio2018/status/1069007012044918785   Permalink 1:34 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@paulportesi @nntaleb. Taking Nassim’s idea of buildings are designed by architects to impress other architects. Calculus book writtern by math teachers are meant to impress committees or orther math teachers; not for students or practitioners. https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1069321585591492610   Permalink 12:42 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@MKM_Abdul My takeaway from The Incerto by @nntaleb is that most biases are optical illusions that appear when human behavior is viewed from a risk perspective and completely disappear when viewed from a ruin perspective. https://twitter.com/doctorxr/status/1065327150834819073   Permalink 2:46 AM – 2 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon Good morning from cloudy #Beirut By @nadimbouhabib #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/AD8l4D6gGt Permalink 11:32 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Make sure you don’t compromise your ethics like @paul_salem for oil $$$, because some a***hole like me will never leave you alone for the rest of your life (again, Minority Rule). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1051952580195221504   Permalink 10:49 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@sangai_ To be a person of virtue you need to be boringly virtuous in every single small action. To be a person of honor all you need is to be honorable in a few important things (say risk your life or career or reputation for a just cause,or live up to your word,etc) N N Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 9:29 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Something worth discussing: you can’t measure @salilstatistics the role of the x% by using standard estimators; rather from powerlaw tails. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1405.1791.pdf   https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/1069052765870178305   Permalink 9:26 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Deadlifting is the best training for flipping cars. Just make sure you 1) prevent back injury w/the valsava maneuver, 2) use gloves to get a better grip of the side of the car,3) after deadlifting the car quicky change hand position for an explosive push,4) synchronize w/friends. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1068976373870424065   Permalink 2:02 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Just to make sure you know the @MiddleEastInst is a lobbying firm for the UAE with a mission of regime change/Salafi support/promote war in Yemen. But it is not classified as a lobby firm, but disguized as a “research” firm. Shd be classified as lobbyist https://theintercept.com/2017/08/09/gulf-government-gave-secret-20-million-gift-to-d-c-think-tank/   Permalink 10:21 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “Social science means inventing a certain brand of human we can understand.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:55 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb These are false claims. Chips were traditionally fried in beef tallow, duck fat, and/or olive oil. Not in SEED oil that we now know is inflammatory. Not Lindy. @Mangan150 has been producing ample evidence that seed oil marketed as “healthy” is not healthy. pic.twitter.com/RYbXf37e9t Permalink 9:52 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Better to own up to who you tend to envy. Umberto Eco, a man of yuuge erudition. His library, Milan. pic.twitter.com/rVT1sLzja1 Permalink 9:32 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@History_Twerp I often wonder how Westerners and Levantines alike feel when it’s mentioned that Beirut was once a bastion of Greek learning and Roman law. I never get an answer. Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Mulukhiyyé, kebbé, & french fries in olive oil with visiting ⁦@HsenAndil⁩ and ⁦@Decafquest⁩ in Northern Phoenicia. pic.twitter.com/tGSC47KnPq Permalink 4:28 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb It is much harder to conceal one’s envy than to detect that of others. Permalink 2:46 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony What #IYI’s fail to understand is the more ya nerdify simple tings the more normal people tune ya out… Permalink 9:14 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #tesla #blackswanmobile pic.twitter.com/HV96bwUtzv Permalink 8:34 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Lecture on spurious correlation/hacking https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&t=8s   Permalink 1:34 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Department of using Statistics to BS: or how @paulkrugman promotes Fooled by Randomness. https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1068108794838831106   Permalink 1:23 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My lecture at M4 (thread) explains why such statements by @PTetlock (and his work) on forecasting are total BS and how they worsen with fat tailedness. pic.twitter.com/F7SrwXYc4w Permalink 8:32 PM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Except for that hitch they were great forecasters https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1068284498872336384   Permalink 8:30 PM – 29 Nov 2018

@brianalmon The classic intellectual-yet-idiot (as @nntaleb calls them). Physicists can tell you exactly where Mars will be on a particular day a hundred years from now, but “climate scientists” have been making inaccurate predictions for decades. https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/1067986658899877888   Permalink 9:32 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@beaves_dad Wait a minute! I thought the Left were the peacemakers and the Right were the warmongerers. This doesn’t make sense. Chuck Schumer should be protesting, not Rand Paul. Permalink 7:35 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@RandPaul ICYMI: Yesterday I joined @CNN to discuss Saudi Arabia and the war in Yemen. Yesterday was a big day. The Senate woke up. The Senate said we aren’t going to keep turning a blind eye to Saudi Arabia abuses or their war in Yemen. pic.twitter.com/Tf6WkdzzYl Permalink 6:36 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Was asked if the INCERTO was Lindy. Fooled by Randomness, oldest of the INCERTO, is ~19 y old, & steady. This is US weekly sales (excludes UK, foreign). Same pattern in UK, Italy, Russia, etc. Younger books show same pattern. Almost all bestsellers show exponential decline. pic.twitter.com/euonj51LRb Permalink 5:57 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The problem is that stupid people (the IYI, Intellectuals Yet Idiots) are much, much more dangerous to mankind than evil people. Thanks @enzolamberti for the beautiful pamphlet by Carlo Cipolla. pic.twitter.com/75ci7l5PTv Permalink 2:36 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb So, correction: original post shd be .01 of the people not .01% of the pple, as corrected in the 2nd tutorial. Permalink 2:20 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb What the data w @Drcirillo might be showing is vastly worse than expected: people may have a constant level of belligerence, but more and more destructive weapons. WW1 and WW2 are not outliers. (PS We got more analyses from recent data). https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1068072976455819265   Permalink 2:03 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Cleaned up the Pareto Tutorial pic.twitter.com/hySfuzf5mL Permalink 12:53 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Next time you hear someone in the defense industry claiming to help “defend” you & yours against foreign threats, call their BS. Their business is to kill people for money. They have a vested interest in wars. And they own the Foreign Policy “establishment”. https://twitter.com/RoKhanna/status/1067800784241401856   Permalink 3:14 PM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Carlos Ghosn was ambushed like an amateur. https://twitter.com/gsdc1/status/1067907924931039232   Permalink 2:37 PM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My lecture at the conference Dec 10-11 in NY will be exactly why statements like this one by @PTetlock are total BS. Why forecasting without #SkinintheGame is nonsense, how to be rich you need to be a “bad” forecaster. https://www.mcompetitions.unic.ac.cy   @spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/1067770888056123393   Permalink 9:50 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Tutorial: Many seem interested in the “Pareto” attributes. Here is a short tutorial. pic.twitter.com/yV3R2xICT4 Permalink 8:01 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I block .01 % of people, which reduces BS, sophisty, & nitpicking by 99%. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2:21 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I block .01 % of people, which reduces BS, sophisty, & nitpicking by 99%. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2:21 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@AhsanDeliri When you confuse Newtonian mechanics and chaos theory. It’s easy to conflate problem sets. https://twitter.com/scottlinnen/status/1067156975488827392   Permalink 11:00 PM – 26 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Friends, what I am looking is for the JOINT distribution of Low heart rate AND high BP; that is, the RARE combination, not comments on either conditions considered separately. For the two conditions appear to be inversely correlated. Thanks. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1064898068720615424   Permalink 9:34 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@black_swan_man Patron Saint Daniel Bernoulli (1 of 2) #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ergodicity pic.twitter.com/vKR99YdWfz Permalink 8:03 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Medical Puzzle: Wonder about the clinical significance of: + Low resting heart beart rate <60 + High arterial blood pressure 140/85 Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb People have the illusion that Med = Sea. No, Med = Mountains. Gabish? https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1064881210030206976   Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@spyrosmakrid Nassim Nicholas Taleb keynote at the M4 Forecasting Conference (New York City December 10/11) will be on “Forecasting and Uncertainty:The Challenge of Fat Tailedness” and after popular requests he will also talk about “Tail risks and why he thinks they are worse now than in 2007” pic.twitter.com/ZqntPkUrWx Permalink 5:41 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 6- Centralized political systems cannot be truly “democratic” https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1064771248264081408   Permalink 2:39 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Yoga schmoga. Try strolling. Or napping. #Lindy https://twitter.com/joerogan/status/1064645547095728131   Permalink 5:41 PM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Back to Riyadh, hoping the Saudi mob doesn’t get all excited again. Permalink 2:57 PM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 5) Hard to prevent idiots from polluting the discource: It is private enterprise that pulled hundreds of millions, if not a billion, out of poverty, not NGOs, not socialism, not redistributive expropriation, and not his beatitude the @Pontifex. pic.twitter.com/UoWJcURHJR Permalink 3:00 AM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 4) We are tired of people who want to “do good” the easy way: by destroying the world while collecting a salary. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/904744034673061888   Permalink 12:44 PM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 3) I am afraid that the only places that will be functional in ten years are small states that tasted socialism hence vaccinated (& are small enough for scaling), e.g. Georgia, Croatia, Hungary, Czech R, Slovenia, Montenegro, Serbia, Poland, Baltic states, … Permalink 11:13 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 2) Those who cause disasters judge themselves by the intentions not by the outcome. ( Socialists will blow us up.) + “First, do no harm” (primum non nocere): the most robust way for the world to get better. + No virtue without courage… https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 10:48 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Alas people have done more harm while trying to “do good” and trying to “improve” the world than by trying to pursue their selfish aims while leaving others alone. Silver rule>> Messianism #vianegativa (Orthodox theology) #naiveinterventionism #virtuesignaling https://twitter.com/pontifex/status/1063771232129101824   Permalink 9:26 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Trump doesn’t realize he must dump the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria; this support will eventually be his Russian campaign. Permalink 1:45 PM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb SHOCKING! These people http://Optionsellers.com   who blew up were citing me and The Black Swan to propose … selling TAIL options. Unbelievable. Exactly the opposite of what I write. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/XBDoRs0Jya”>  pic.twitter.com/XBDoRs0Jya Permalink 12:41 PM – 17 Nov 2018