nntaleb
Typical initial resistance on the part of Israel/Iran in realizing they will end up fighting on the same side. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/692701879801888768
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692705220145512448
5:46 AM – 28 Jan 2016
nntaleb
7) Saw in a flash why to get “honest” function for fattailed CDF you needed alpha exponent in N but not Fourier tr https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cauchy_distribution
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692650762514493440
2:09 AM – 28 Jan 2016
nntaleb
My explanation of the flaw of “averaging” under nonlinear responses and why much of psychology doesn’t generalize.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/average.pdf
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692641102952681472
1:31 AM – 28 Jan 2016
nntaleb
2/2 The problem is deeper than local averaging: The response by Dawkins clique to Nowak’s math was journalistic. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/nov/07/richard-dawkins-labelled-journalist-by-eo-wilson
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692640422984716288
1:28 AM – 28 Jan 2016
nntaleb
The “Selfish Gene” has been debunked by Wilson/Nowak, & Bar Yam. Links to “averaging” in complex syst #Antifragile https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/692552661598601216
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692634919672029184
1:06 AM – 28 Jan 2016
nntaleb
I meant #skininthegame only learn from those who do what they teach. Ignore others @jsqfunk
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692510656285839360
4:53 PM – 27 Jan 2016
nntaleb
6b)Penrose made me finally get why I fail to “invent” a powerlaw in R without “patches”.Shd focus on Complex:Fourier
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/inventproba.pdf
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692509349831430144
4:47 PM – 27 Jan 2016
nntaleb
6a) His discussion of Euler proper “smooth” function in Re domain vs analyticity in complex=>why no real function on R for fattailed distr
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692508259706654720
4:43 PM – 27 Jan 2016
nntaleb
To learn, learn from those who do it.
https://twitter.com/andybolton1008/status/692472823101677570
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692487377961500672
3:20 PM – 27 Jan 2016
nntaleb
5) He ties together stuff that we never put together. Sometimes just a hint leads to a flash. What is natural/rational number before quarks?
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692433850534891520
11:47 AM – 27 Jan 2016
nntaleb
4) Just reread first 7 chapters on plane to India.
+discovery of math techniques (complex analysis, Log) led to uncovering of the physical
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692433229270405120
11:45 AM – 27 Jan 2016
nntaleb
best quote re Davos @nntaleb “The opposite of success isn’t failure; it is name dropping.”Going to needlepoint it. https://twitter.com/TheMediaTweets/status/691990013601566721
http://www.twitter.com/duffynyc/status/692403911165132803
9:48 AM – 27 Jan 2016
nntaleb
.@kennethminoo The idea is the inverse problem. Imagine yourself having to produce the math that explains reality, no less no more.
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692140970683584512
4:24 PM – 26 Jan 2016
nntaleb
The English approach math a la Newton: less formalisn more coherence @OussamaENNAFII
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692136440877191168
4:06 PM – 26 Jan 2016
nntaleb
3) TRTR shows the exact interplay between math and physical reality. It works like magic. Think of complex analysis=>quantum` probability!!!
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692128164529750017
3:33 PM – 26 Jan 2016
nntaleb
2) Before TRTR viewed the world into: Von Neumann vs Feynman. For VN, a physical was a term in equation. For RF, math could be masturbation.
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692127702153826304
3:31 PM – 26 Jan 2016
nntaleb
1) Penrose’s TRTR convinced me that it takes 10 years to properly real a real book.
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692126825372344320
3:27 PM – 26 Jan 2016
nntaleb
Friends, Let’s start a twitter symposium on Penrose’s monumental TRTR (after 10y of reading it). #lindyeffect
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/691965449815326720
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692121975788081159
3:08 PM – 26 Jan 2016
nntaleb
Someone needs to (gently & patiently) explain to Bill Gates that in real life you can’t reboot to solve a crash. https://twitter.com/GMOInside/status/691563805940256768
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692120293452677124
3:01 PM – 26 Jan 2016
nntaleb
Syllabus of my course at NYU-Tandon @nyupoly: 7 Introductory lectures on Extreme Risk Analytics. pic.twitter.com/NBpX8JRfEu
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/691996457730183168
6:49 AM – 26 Jan 2016
It is a myth that markets are there for the discovery of “the” price.(Facebook) Markets are there so we can keep changing opinion about the price.
——
In addition, for those who believe in the “wisdom of crowds”, looks like the idea is debunked by the minority rule.http://fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf
Every century brings the fool (Facebook) who declares that “violence is steadily declining” and that we live in “unparalleled” period of peace (40 years without conflict). And, needless to say, attributes it to some type of progress. This was from H.T. Buckle circa 1857. I was shocked to find Pinker’s words… verbatim. It was not just Pinker’s reasoning, but his words.
The great F. Dostoyevsky debunked it in “Notes from an underground” (enclosed).
A common theme of “positivist-rationalists-scientistic” (that is, promoters of scientism) to believe in “end of”, new man, new society, new something, etc. Just as the “new atheists” believe that if we remove religion and replaced with something they mislabel as “science”, things wouldn’t blow up the planet. Now, looking for some quotes from Auguste Comte who, thanks to his magisterial multi-volume project, “Cours de Philosophy Positive” gave respectability to this turkey problem.
—–
Notes:
1) Dostoyevsky, as an author, had skin in the game. He faced his own execution: he was condemned to death penalty, faced the execution squad, and was reprieved last minute. See in The Idiot the discussion of how a man faces what he think is his last hours of life, promising himself to enjoy every minute of like in the same manner if case he miraculously survives… and forgetting it upon the miraculous survival. Much more on him, later.2) The Nobel Foundation gave me a fellowhip to go study the statistical properties of violence in Oslo. So I will get deeper into this turkey problem and its sucker narrative.
3) Thanking Daniel Obloja.
When people get rich (Facebook), they lose control of their preferences, substituting constructed preferences to their own, triggering their own misery. And these are the preferences of those who want to sell them something (a skin-in-the-game problem as their choices are dictated by others who have something to gain, and no side effects, from the sale).
I’ve mentioned here the following anecdote. I once had dinner in a Michelin-starred restaurant with a fellow who insisted on eating there instead of my selection of a casual Greek place. People in the restaurant were of the very constipated style, that kind of atmosphere. Dinner consisted in a succession of complicated small things. It felt like work. I left the place starving. Now if I had a choice I would have had some time-tested recipe (say a pizza with fresh ingredients, or a juicy hamburger) in a lively place –for a tenth of the price. But because the fellow could afford the expensive restaurant, we ended up the victims of some complicated experiments by a chef judged by some Michelin bureaucrat (one that would fail the Lindy effect, instead of eating some minute local variation around a progress through Sicilian grandmothers).
(Footnote: Hamburgers are tastier than filet mignon, because of the higher fat content, but people have been convinced that the latter is better because it is more expensive to produce).
The same with real estate. Most people, I am convinced, are happier in close quarters, in a real barrio-style neighborhood, where they can feel human warmth, but when they have big bucks they end up pressured to move into a humongous impersonal and silent mansions, far away from the neighbors. Not counting the fact that their house will be professionally managed like a corporation.
I am saying this because, with the passage of time, I am more and more convinced that very few people understand their own choices, and end up being manipulated by those who want to sell them something. Looking at Saudi Arabia which should progressively revert to the pre-oil level of poverty, I wonder if taking away some things from them will make them better off.
A part man-part animal (Facebook) is vastly more horrifying than a full wild animal. Extremely eerie are monsters who look like humans with small differences.
The uncanny resides in the resemblance, not the difference.
So I finally figured out why I am gripped with so much revulsion at BS vendors dressed in the garb of high priest of scientists, intellectuals, or logicians, (say Pinker or Shermer or Harris or some scientist under Monsanto’s control), to the point of total maddening anger, and why I do not experience any disgust when I see a fortune teller, a market commentator, or some new age meditation guru such as Deepak Chopra.
FRIDAY QUIZ.(Facebook)
“People of high intelligence are ethical. We find fewer intelligent people among criminals.”
Spot the nonsense in the sentence.When I was a quant-trader (Facebook), my trading colleagues talked about books, ideas, and quants talked about probability and mathematics. Now that I am in the “ideas” profession, my academic colleagues discuss office space, and my writing colleagues talk about book agents, speakers bureaus and copyrights. Professional mathematicians talk about grants and amateur ones about Godel.