Tag Archives: nassim taleb

Deep Read: Nassim Taleb (The Black Swan Guy) : Planet Money : NPR

by Jacob Goldstein

Here’s the latest Planet Money Deep Read — our occasional series of long-ish interviews with writers and thinkers.

Today, we hear from Nassim Taleb, the former Wall Street trader who published a book called the Black Swan back in 2007. The book was re-issued earlier this year, with a long new section called “On Robustness & Fragility.”

Listen to the Deep Read

[19 min 26 sec]

The book argues that most economic models fail because they don’t take into account rare, high-impact events that wind up driving history. (Taleb calls these events Black Swans.) The argument came out looking pretty good after the 2008 financial crisis.

The new section of the book includes, among other things, a prescription for withstanding a Black Swan.

The short version: Get rid of debt.

nntaleb: @felixsalmon sees with clarity: http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/08/16/the-mess-that-is-deposit-insurance/

nntaleb: @felixsalmon sees with clarity: http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/08/16/the-mess-that-is-deposit-insurance/

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JohnH-  Excerpt from the article:

The product in question is CDARS, and Blinder is a founder of the company which invented them. When Blinder wrote an op-ed complaining about an attempt to broaden deposit insurance, I was underwhelmed, writing that “Blinder has a massive conflict: he’s the vice-chairman of the company which runs CDARS, a financial instrument designed solely to get around FDIC deposit limits.” Without deposit limits, of course, CDARS become moot, and Blinder loses a large chunk of income.

PBS Video Taleb & Roubini Examine Potential for Longer Recession

Original Source, PBS Newshour (includes full transcript) HatTip to Dave Lull
Love the ‘Fat Tails’ info graphic. (Note, for some reason sometimes the embed
doesn’t show, if you don’t see a video window on this post, try refreshing the
page. Otherwise, watch it at the original source link above.)

 

Audio Only mp3

Nouriel Roubini also has a new book you might want to check out.

Black Swan Second Edition

 

RadioOpenSource.org Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The “Fragility” Crisis is Just Begun

Christopher Lydon / Nassim Taleb telephone interview.

Link to source and synopsis.

3. On bailouts: My analogy is to the gambler who is now gambling with the trust fund of his unborn great-great-granchildren… Prudence should be the first thing on the agenda of governments, not speculation. Stimulus packages are speculation… We are gambling on a massive recovery. It’s too big a gamble, and besides it’s immoral.

2. In the economic crisis, and in the Gulf of Mexico, what we should be discovering is not who made what mistake, but the fact of fragility. Alas, what we don’t learn is… that we don’t learn.

1. No government can fortify something that’s inherently fragile.

ForumNetwork.org – Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Impact of the Highly Improbable

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Impact of the Highly Improbable

May 19, 2010 51:32

Nassim Taleb professor, writer

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, renowned expert on risk and randomness, discusses The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. This bestselling book is now out in paperback with a new essay, “On Robustness and Fragility.”

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

This lecture contains strong language.