@BadgerPundit https://twitter.com/QTRResearch/status/960712791211565056   Permalink 8:25 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Any news if $XIV is trading now & what price? Permalink 8:00 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Ancient Egyptians DNA. Please not another Mary Beard BS.http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/05/scientists-thought-ancient-egyptian-mummies-didn-t-have-any-dna-left-they-were-wrong   Permalink 2:59 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The discovery that Ancient Egyptians were likely to be Natufians/Anatolians.https://twitter.com/joshuagates/status/960533298496901120   Permalink 2:17 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@TMFStoffel I published this piece on @nntaleb’s new book and how it applies to investors over the weekend. Seems more relevant than every less than 48 hours later https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/02/03/5-things-you-can-learn-about-investing-from-nassim.aspx   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1WuyM4fJtW”>  pic.twitter.com/1WuyM4fJtW Permalink 6:31 PM – 5 Feb 2018

@nntaleb RE ARTISANS (added to SITG) The most skilled traders are often wealthy, but not the wealthiest: many traders trade out of passion & aren’t interested in running a business. To become a billionaire, one needs an appetite for meetings, discussions with lawyers and regulators, etc. Permalink 5:27 AM – 5 Feb 2018

@nntaleb People associated w/”prestigious” institutions (e.g. Stanford’s @HooverInst) are very vulnerable because the inst. cares abt its image, particularly if as with @henryImiller it is scientific fraud. For that one needs f** you money but those who have it don’t shill for Monsanto Permalink 6:04 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I got uncomfortable with @jordanbpeterson (whom I had been backing) after his thingy with Monsanto. Permalink 5:30 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Dear officials at the Hoover Institute, @HooverInst have you started some ethics/disciplinary action against @henryimiller who committed a scholarly fraud? Is your board aware of it? Please let us know before we escalate. Thank you. Permalink 5:02 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Articles about me by Monsanto’s shill of shills @henryimiller have been removed by Forbes. Too bad I have no copy! And thank you @garyruskin for your vigilance (assuming you are responsible for busting Miller)! pic.twitter.com/kzrOwHvx6a Permalink 4:50 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Le corp de mon ennemihttps://twitter.com/mercola/status/960196530031472642   Permalink 9:24 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@MarkJDoran Classic example from recent weeks: Mary Beard giving cosy footrubs to Hillary Clinton, with the sickening result pumped out by the Guardian as if it’s an important conversation… Guess what: the word ‘Libya’ *doesn’t appear once*…https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/dec/02/hillary-clinton-mary-beard-donald-trump   Permalink 8:05 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@JulianAssange Intellectuals, with exceptions famous precisely because of their exceptionality, have always served as skilled apologists for the classes who control their funding, career advancement and social elevation.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huMUGm5z6RE   Permalink 7:51 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I hate to write for newspapers (last was 6y ago) because you can’t be playful, write on your own terms, make the reader concentrate on some stuff, etc. Permalink 6:57 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb (انقلاب ) is a loan word from Arabic used for coup and (شورش ) is from Farsi but can be Semitic ( uprooting) Permalink 6:52 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Philology du jour: where you learn that in Farsi, “revolution” انقلاب is the same word as “coup (d’etat)” ( شورش and انقلاب are synonyms).https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/status/959999000593170432   Permalink 5:42 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Version 2. pic.twitter.com/fUsafA23WX Permalink 5:20 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@DrCirillo For an Italian, it is not really Sunday without homemade lasagne. Today no probability, just mouthwatering certainties. pic.twitter.com/pdm0p4YNay Permalink 4:52 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Not getting feedback: it is easy to read? Representative? Instead of sending the book to reviewers (who from experience rarely read the book), I am writing my own exposition. Permalink 1:55 PM – 3 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Friends, this Op-Ed explaining (some of the aspects of) the book is here for comments. Will delete later, as per rules of journal. pic.twitter.com/5QFz31YrOe Permalink 1:37 PM – 3 Feb 2018

@nntaleb For those who want to see the text of our study on violence (with @DrCirillo ) http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/violencenobelsymposium.pdf   Permalink 6:05 AM – 3 Feb 2018

@GhassanDahhan SPECULATION: Sextus Empiricus, the famous Sceptic, was not an Egyptian or an original Greek (i.e. he’s not Sextus of Chaeronea, as some have suggested). I have many reasons to believe that he was a *Libyan Greek*. Permalink 5:14 AM – 3 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I almost never post bad reviews. I had to for Pinker’s book. When you see huuuge BS, you shout huuuge BS. https://www.amazon.com/review/R1DEH7FKTGM00W/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rdp_perm?ie=UTF8   (some editing will appear in few days) Permalink 2:58 PM – 2 Feb 2018

@ektrit This discovery proves @nntaleb ‘s postulation: “History is Hearsay, plus Fabrication, plus some Truth”https://twitter.com/NPR/status/959552782054256640   Permalink 2:34 PM – 2 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Here’s what I got so far with an explanation of why the result is sometimes e-1 and sometimes just e. It’s all in the formulation. https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/RoadToOne.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sHsbt3Zpc8″>  pic.twitter.com/sHsbt3Zpc8 Permalink 9:38 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The problem of statistical inference under fat tails: My next lecktchur, simplified in book with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/rmlg2Enj8x Permalink 7:44 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The first review of the INCERTO as a whole, not taken as bodyparts, by @BrankoMilan. Bypassing the media (except in France) and skipping the book tour (except for lecktchurs in London & NY). https://goo.gl/LRomZC   Permalink 7:12 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@smnjc “Skin in the game”, par le maître de l’anti-bullshit @nntaleb (excellent compte-rendu de @NessimAitKacimi dans @LesEchos).https://twitter.com/mobivince/status/959392707499188224   Permalink 3:56 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The fellow is an honest person. He conceded under the calm convincing skills of@ @DrCirillohttps://twitter.com/freakonometrics/status/959206640124874752   Permalink 5:16 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The fellow is an honest person. He conceded under the calm convincing skills of@ @DrCirillohttps://twitter.com/freakonometrics/status/959206640124874752   Permalink 5:16 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Now here is “statistical estimator”. Nothing works under fat tails as is. Hence our book with @DrCirillo https://www.encyclopediaofmath.org/index.php/Statistical_estimator   Permalink 1:43 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dropping points on a circle #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/Qgx21RAtZi Permalink 1:18 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And when you ask these ignorant econometricians like @freakonometrics they recite Extreme Value Theory which never claimed to do statistical inference. Permalink 1:17 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb In 100 years we’ve had imbeciles like this Arthur Charpentier claiming that “we know about Fat Tails” not realizing ALL his work goes down the toilet. Where are the papers on statistical estimation? https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MOiB_W4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao   Permalink 1:09 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I am tired, tired, tired of people who say “We know about fat tails” yet 1) fail to use them, see 2) the consequences, 3) realize accepting fat tails means CHANGING completely the way to do statistical inference. And NO, nothing has been done by nobody. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html  https://twitter.com/freakonometrics/status/959157853838716929   Permalink 1:01 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Iphone 8, Iphone X, or neither? Thanks in advance, friends. Permalink 10:25 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Corruptionhttps://twitter.com/nonmeek/status/959122957347024898   Permalink 10:00 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@ludvigbel If I had not read @nntaleb, I would have ended up as a bureaucrat married to a boring notary. No kidding, almost happened. Instead I joined startups, endured financial hardship, married an amazing lively girl, moved with her abroad, who knows what next. Ok ok, hindsight bias. Permalink 9:43 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb We need more Serge Langs (a mathematician who blocked social scientists from being considered scientists). pic.twitter.com/qqVqGtRXrh Permalink 9:10 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Obviously, the mean simplifies to Exp[T \mu] Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Changing the mind of students, one PhD student at a time.https://twitter.com/birdxi1988/status/959099030147092481   Permalink 8:26 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Voila. Updated Silent Risk and the lextchur notes. pic.twitter.com/KqqvVwfTxv Permalink 7:18 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@BT_BXL Very good short argument for “the uniqueness and importance of Nassim Taleb”. Don’t be put off by Taleb’s ostentatious and digressive style of writing* or his cantankerous persona on Twitter! *unlike @BrankoMilan I think NT’s ideas succeed despite his style not because of it.https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/958139081652953089   Permalink 6:16 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Here is a draft of the difference between Weak and Strong ergodicities for correction by @ole_b_peters pic.twitter.com/GfnlksQy7e Permalink 5:02 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@ydemombynes 5ème et dernier volume de la cultissime série #Incerto de @nntaleb. Une fois de plus érudit, provocateur, visionnaire. Chapeau l’artiste pic.twitter.com/JBC04Q6ies Permalink 1:52 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Goof to be often understood.https://twitter.com/IndiTrades/status/958739409553170434   Permalink 8:39 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Dominant haplogroup good proxy of overall distance metric as it matches autosomal DNA. There is no granularity but Tunis has coastal J1, South Italy is heavily J2.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/895599465381339137   Permalink 8:38 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Note from above that to be rich in Europe, one has to use the state. This is what happens when you live under the invasive, large, powerful, centralized State. We were heading in that direction under Obama and his crony capitalists. Permalink 7:14 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Before you take anyone commentary seriously, ask him for his predictions for the last election (and, worse, the methodology used for it). BS vending is easy to detect.https://twitter.com/DavMicRot/status/958554711640158209   Permalink 7:12 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Example: Under Obama bankers got in 2010 the largest bonus pool ever, engineered by Tim Geithner. Geithner later got a high paying job in the industry. Permalink 5:58 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) For the slow at getting it, using fame attained *thanks to* the office to sell book contracts is different from attaining fame selling books. Government service is not an investment strategy. Gabish? Permalink 5:56 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Money made THANKS to office is rent-seeking. A former president/PM/official making money from book contracts, lectures, or from “friendly corporations” they helped is THEFT from the public. As bad as it may look, making money BEFORE office is vastly less distorting.https://twitter.com/Annrhefn/status/958623970017857541   Permalink 5:37 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Waiting for a Larger Number https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/WaitForMax.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/YE4bkn2NrP”>  pic.twitter.com/YE4bkn2NrP Permalink 1:42 PM – 30 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) This is what the precautionary principle deals with. Which is why nudgeboy @R_thaler, verbagiastic @PTetlock & other psychologists are totally klueeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeless about probability.https://twitter.com/cuttheknotmath/status/958381560931213312   Permalink 10:10 AM – 30 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Azar is another Greco-Phoenician from tiny Amioun.https://twitter.com/whitehouse/status/958384973848948736   Permalink 9:18 AM – 30 Jan 2018

@_benoux_ From the 1st scene of Iliad, Achilles openly accuses Agamemnon as being corrupted, in front of the whole council. It’s an attitude typical of the concept of μπέσα (brutal honesty + honour) inspiring respect (not tolerance), central to the fighting greco-mediterranean temperament. Permalink 4:23 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@normonics I note also, in addition to N’s respondents being barbell, so are his interactions. he either savages or has a friendly constructive exchange Permalink 3:00 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@mikeandallie (1/2) My math goal for 2018 is gaining a better understanding of the various processes described in this short video Nassim Taleb published today.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/958045027992825856   Permalink 2:48 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@schmittpaula This is often what happens to truly courageous investigative journalists: unemployment.https://twitter.com/Greg_Palast/status/958023897516998656   Permalink 2:21 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@startupdaemon You ever wonder why @realDonaldTrump @nntaleb & @ScottAdamsSays argue with idiots on the Internet? It’s even funnier than you think. And instructive.http://startupdaemon.net/2018/01/29/luddic-fraud/   Permalink 2:09 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The difference between weak and strong non-ergodicities, based on Peters and Gell-Mann (2016) cc:@ole_b_petershttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qA_6BWkC4og   Permalink 10:31 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb “Insight” and “analysis” is what commonly bears the scientific designation: bullshit, short for unrigorous verbiagistic text and images strung together.https://twitter.com/johndjordan31/status/957994161411641344   Permalink 7:12 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Symmetry (Silver rule of Isocrates) Treat other countries the way you would like them to treat you. (#Skininthegame)https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/957212097984819200   Permalink 5:02 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb ReLU is excellent, even for other convexities. pic.twitter.com/9dKPy3R6A9 Permalink 4:42 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I wonder if Lakens boy @lakens has comments as, although quite verbagiastic & ignorant (he is a f***ng psychologist), he was indirectly useful with previous versions. Permalink 4:28 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Mathematics offer certainties but not effectiveness Engineering offers effectiveness but not certainties Social Science offers neither certainties nor effectiveness Permalink 4:23 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   Reformatted the P-Value paper. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DRAVTU1IF0″>  pic.twitter.com/DRAVTU1IF0 Permalink 4:18 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@NessimAitKacimi Victoriam Roma, Nassim Nicholas Taleb et son nouvel essai “Jouer sa peau” chez @BellesLettresEdhttps://tinyurl.com/yc2hgx26   Permalink 12:43 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@ClimateAudit @nntaleb this should concern you. There are relatively few sites which have continuity from the Bronze Age to the Iron Age. This is also a site which links Indo-European Hittites to neo-Hittite northern Syria. Bombing such an important archaeological site should cause outrage.https://twitter.com/BasileusZeno/status/957360866042753024   Permalink 6:06 PM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb No, there is quite a bit if variance along the line. Permalink 11:45 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 8) OK, let me be blunt. How many professions do you know, other than the ones where physical attributes are essential, where the modus “sleep your way up” prevails? Permalink 11:11 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Here is the refinement of genetic distance principal components. pic.twitter.com/NkCYDDlSoY Permalink 11:06 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7) Now a harder questchon: what is the proportion of actors who voted for Hilary Monsanto-Malmaison? Permalink 8:55 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) Remember: actors are trained to not seem stupid. Permalink 7:47 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Hilarious!https://twitter.com/walid970721/status/957142684027809793   Permalink 7:11 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) And for the slow thinkers on the thread, you don’t see gynecologists or train engineers lektchuring the rest of the world on virtue. Actors do. Gabish? Permalink 6:32 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Actors should not be the ones lektchuring the rest of us on ethics & morality. They also have a tendency to conflate virtue and its external manifestation, given that everything in their world is appearance.https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 5:47 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@ole_b_peters Great, thanks! Multiplicative coin toss, discussed in the paper with Murray http://aip.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/1.4940236   with an (old) video here https://youtu.be/LGqOH3sYmQA?t=4m4s   Also instructive: X does an unbiased random walk. Heads: X -> X+1 Tails: X -> X-1 Fair coin. — what’s the time average of X? Permalink 5:26 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) I do not know many industries where people are hired either a) on looks, or b) ability to impersonate what one is not. Permalink 5:26 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Romans banned actors from marrying, even mixing with citizens. Same dynamics in modern times, but self-inflicted: engineers can mix w/gynecologists… actors stay with actors. Look at the funerals of “gens du spectacle”. Permalink 5:14 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb To understand why what happens in Hollywood is irrelevant to the rest of humans: 1) How many ACTORs do you have among your friends? 2) How many ACTOR friends do your friends have? Actors rarely mix with real people. Permalink 4:57 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@NonGMOProject Shop Non-GMO Project shirts, hats, stickers and more at http://store.nongmoproject.org  ! ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/YJOFxlOZRx”>  pic.twitter.com/YJOFxlOZRx Permalink 6:10 PM – 27 Jan 2018

@byzantinepower Trabzon, Antalya (ad infinitum) are lost cities of #Byzantium & the people of these cities still miss the golden days of rule of the #Byzantines. This is the time for #Byzantium to reclaim all lost lands. #OperationLabarum https://twitter.com/sideeque96/status/955413119576170496   Permalink 12:30 PM – 27 Jan 2018

@Marcellenassif https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYZMrFWnMes   Cretan dance. Well if this is not separated at birth with Lebanese dabke! Permalink 11:43 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Correlates with the J2 look.https://twitter.com/romepix/status/713087120718561280   Permalink 10:11 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@nntaleb We are not doing any press “promotion” for the book! No books to reviewers (except in France). Why? Just to verify that the Media is something of the past. Permalink 7:18 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Amazon finally discounted SKIN IN THE GAME. I will buy a copy myself. https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/042528462X/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=   Permalink 6:24 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@_skininthegame @nntaleb just finished SilentRisk – a masterpiece. To those who criticize his work as “pop”, take a look at SilentRisk. All the math behind Incerto is there. A technical tour de force on decision making under opacity. Permalink 4:43 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@EricRWeinstein Did @OwenBenjamin crack this wide open in his analysis of one photo? Are 10 men in ties distorting our sense that everyone who doesn’t agree with them is worthy of ridicule? When do these guys appear in open unscripted conditions? Never? pic.twitter.com/JQSgTlp0jG Permalink 5:33 PM – 26 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Not the point. What the entertainer/bullshitvendor @SamHarrisOrg calls “science” isn’t rigorous science but low-grade scientism. Science doesn’t make overreaching claims on how to act outside its narrow domain. Permalink 11:39 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Problem CC252 from @CruxMath #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/fe4WeTqpl1 Permalink 11:26 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3am nshtghl 3laya.https://twitter.com/learn_lebanese/status/956575940406140930   Permalink 9:29 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@dougvk this distinction between rationality, “rationality”, science, scientism, belief, risk, and skin-in-the-game cleanly separated a lot of ideas i’ve been playing around with. @nntaleb always thought provoking, but this one especially:https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 9:10 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Which is why those self-styled “scholars” aren’t scholars but derivative academic rent-seeking rats. Better to define yourself as “flaneur”. Permalink 7:43 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Likewise things that have “democratic” in them, s.a. “democratic republic of Korea/China, etc…” or “Democratic Party” of U.S. aren’t democratic but narrowly elitist. Permalink 1:26 PM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Any form of direct harm inflicted on innocent citizens is immoral, no different from other war crimes.https://twitter.com/catoletters/status/956247781936594945   Permalink 12:06 PM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb NYT is lauching its ad slogan: “Truth”. Those in the business of saying the truth don’t advertise that they are saying the truth, except by taking risks in saying the truth. Remember that the Soviet’s offical organ was called Pravda, “Truth” in Russian. Permalink 12:04 PM – 24 Jan 2018

@AndrejDrapal When @nntaleb exposes “soviet harward method” in #Antifragile, he makes my day almost perfect. The rest of the book takes away “almost”. Permalink 11:51 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@AlphaBetaBlogFR “Plus on s’élève au niveau macro, et moins les gens deviennent responsables de leurs actes, c’est un phénomène caractéristique de nos États modernes.” Un entretien passionnant avec @nntaleb, dont le dernier livre vient de sortir. http://bit.ly/2rB5hFi   via @rajules Permalink 6:15 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb First Interview about Skin in the Game: The French get it, (Translation) https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fr&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.latribune.fr%2Fopinions%2Ftribunes%2Fnassim-n-taleb-c-est-grace-au-genre-de-folie-individuelle-qu-est-un-entrepreneur-qu-une-societe-fonctionne-765765.html&edit-text=&act=url   Permalink 5:10 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb In the 1864 census of Mount Lebanon Shiites were not counted as Muslims but “Metwalis”.https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/955922228503351298   Permalink 3:49 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Jouer sa peauhttps://www.latribune.fr/opinions/tribunes/nassim-n-taleb-c-est-grace-au-genre-de-folie-individuelle-qu-est-un-entrepreneur-qu-une-societe-fonctionne-765765.html   Permalink 2:59 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb “Val” in the email is Val Giddings who spent time trying to deligitimize me on the web after our Precautionary Principle paper.https://twitter.com/StacyMalkan/status/955920547480768512   Permalink 3:00 PM – 23 Jan 2018

@GreenRupertRead Aha. The great Chesterton appears to have anticipated @nntaleb in creating the #IYI concept: #IntellectualYetIdiothttps://twitter.com/GKCdaily/status/955846939182010368   Permalink 9:05 AM – 23 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Antioch is the capital of Ancient Syria More Greek than the Greekhttps://twitter.com/CCavafy/status/955789681886670849   Permalink 7:19 AM – 23 Jan 2018

@nntaleb International Association of Name Droppers (IAND) ( What I called the Davos WEF in The Black Swan) Permalink 3:30 AM – 23 Jan 2018

@MarcosCarreira Exact Solutions for Choosing the Largest Number: http://mcarreira.typepad.com/mc_notes/2018/01/exact-solutions-for-choosing-the-largest-number.html   @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb The optimal ks are linear on log[n], much higher than the (1-1/n)-like heuristics; includes code to generate (and solve) automatically the probability equations for any n ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DjfEtnp9l2″>  pic.twitter.com/DjfEtnp9l2 Permalink 5:54 PM – 22 Jan 2018

@Sophiam1973 psychpathologisation – when someone accuses another of having a psychopathology to win an argument or for other bad faith reasons. Neologism created by @nntaleb #neologism #psychopathologise Permalink 12:31 PM – 22 Jan 2018

@thackerpd The trolls will now start accusing you of wanting children in Africa to starve, because corporate mergers will feed the world’s hungry.https://twitter.com/Colin_Todhunter/status/955456272651997184   Permalink 11:44 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala lghgha Ma fi lghgha bala 2adab Ma fi 2adab bala ktebe Permalink 9:04 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@philomag “Jouer sa peau. Asymétries cachées dans la vie quotidienne” @BellesLettresEd : Nassim Nicholas @nntaleb remet à sa manière la vertu et l’éthique de la responsabilité au cœur de toute entreprise dans https://buff.ly/2DV3JbH   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/EHS7Q2pbfP”>  pic.twitter.com/EHS7Q2pbfP Permalink 7:31 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Imbecile, it is MY Haplogrop. Permalink 7:02 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb More interesting than his commie rant, Bernie Sanders is J2 Haplogroup. Now J2b? Does someone know the subclade?https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/955446549684813824   Permalink 6:39 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/xM8anTA93X Permalink 5:35 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Good point. Avoid the verbalistic. Have the discipline to define a Ponzi scheme. Then you can see that Bitcoin, no matter what “bubble” characteristics you impart to it, will not be a Ponzi. And avoid reading ANY commentary on Bitcoin by a NYT subscriber or a tenured econ Prof.https://twitter.com/JuergenStrobel/status/955425189650731014   Permalink 5:08 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Baddna na3réf kif niktob l-lbnéné (amma nsammi ken3ané). Ktébé “B Ed of Procrustes” la7 yetla3 bil-lbnéné. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ejHYQ4ihgI   Aya 7arf? @turlevnon @faleflix @oldlevantine Permalink 3:41 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Baddna na3réf kif niktob l-lbnéné (amma nsammi ken3ané). Ktébé “B Ed of Procrustes” la7 yetla3 bil-lbnéné. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ejHYQ4ihgI   Aya 7arf? @turlevnon @faleflix @oldlevantine Permalink 3:41 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Moved my Bitcoin piece to Mediumhttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/bitcoin-1537e616a074   Permalink 3:08 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Bitcoin”https://medium.com/p/bitcoin-1537e616a074   Permalink 3:01 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@davidboxenhorn Any employee of the IRS or Justice Department who loses records that they are required to keep, should face the same consequences as a civilian that loses records that the IRS or Justice Department requires them to keep. Skin in the game @nntaleb Permalink 12:20 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb It is not rice but vermicelli pasta cooked like rice https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fideuà   Permalink 5:07 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@OneCuriousLemur Definitely. I found a lot of value in arguments from @nntaleb that science was largely a hobby for most of its history. The directed-funding structure and emphasis on publications perverts the process into one of trying to be the loudest chick in the nest Permalink 4:59 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Best squid ink pic.twitter.com/jChzMqib4m Permalink 4:43 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/oVBbNZ3XJB Permalink 4:36 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Hahahahahaha. Since klueless Massimo @mpigliucci did not withdraw his piece, here is something putting him (and you all) back in your place.https://medium.com/opacity/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 2:44 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb cc:@LuisBun Permalink 2:06 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Yes. Other techniques than PCA in information theory. But all work, sort of, in giving probabilistic information. If we do find earlier Macedonians of some Most Common Ancestor, game is easier.https://twitter.com/LuisBun/status/955195554438541313   Permalink 2:03 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Here is Pierre Zalloua’s @PZalloua version using ~complete DNA. It includes Bronze age DNA, which is significant to show that what we had in Roman times was not too different from what we got today (Brownian Bridge reasoning). pic.twitter.com/07bSUmiBdL Permalink 12:26 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7) The hockey stick represents the payoff of the option, which is why Deep Learning feels so natural to deriv. traders, but not overeducated and miseducated social scientists. Permalink 6:40 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) So this is a great way to show how the framework used by nudgeboy @R_Thaler & other psychology BS vendors is unrigorous & why their “science” is pseudo-science. Machine learning, just like Antifragile, is based on the logic of organic reality. Permalink 6:35 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) So whatever in the world is robustly (and locally) forecastable NEEDS to fold into that decomposition, as aid. Permalink 6:17 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Even more exciting is that I wrote 2 books Dynamic Heding & Antifragile on same convex-concave decomposition. So I am sooooooooooooo thrilled to see that Machine Learning is based on convexity. My medical chapter in AF makes the applications to Medical Diagnostics obvious! pic.twitter.com/yRRmSoWuAY Permalink 6:14 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb My grandmother did not want me to forget this. Shiites were also routinely massacred. pic.twitter.com/wIukIzw8ER Permalink 6:04 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) This explains why machine learning “forecasting” works: it doesn’t forecast events but series of layered rules, at different scales. EXCITING! Permalink 5:56 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Both methods aim at getting rid of the VERBALISTIC: most risks, exposures, forecasts in the real world are not expressed into simple words, because of nonlinearity. This is my bone with verbagiastic @PTetlock. Machine learning transcends that via same atomic hockey sticks. Permalink 5:55 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) The Uncanny resemblance betw. DEEP LEARNING and my CONVEX PAYOFF FUNCTION, the *Dynamic Hedging* decomposition’s approach. Statistical machine learning decomposes functions into hockey sticks (similar to figure on left). So do we break every payoff into sums of atomic ones. pic.twitter.com/UEMncZaCpi Permalink 5:53 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Not the point. People bothered by my message disguize their complaint as *personal advice* which I find odious. Permalink 5:45 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb What makes you think I care about your advice? Permalink 5:32 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb So minorities thrived in an environment because there was the EXACT opposite to the “equal opportunity” act. Which is why I believe Social Justic Warriors always produce the exact opposite to what they seem to want. Permalink 5:12 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb My grandmother explained to me why many family members were doctors, & almost all doctors in the Ottoman empire were Christians (or Jews). “They won’t kill you if you can heal them”, she said. Permalink 5:08 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb And the replies by some Social Justice IYIs that these minorities were “oppressors” are BSp. Minorities went into trade because they were discriminated against for government/military jobs. They were DHIMMIS, for God’s sake! Antifragility: stressors made them stronger. SJ idiots. Permalink 4:59 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb It is Harald Cramer. He refined the RUIN problem. (revamping SILENT RISK for lecture notes) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harald_Cramér   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rHPxIvBtHT”>  pic.twitter.com/rHPxIvBtHT Permalink 4:23 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Who is the true father of the distinction thin-tails/fat tails? Permalink 3:37 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb If after one year of Trump you aren’t convinced that the entire class of today’s “intellectuals” has no grasp of reality, you too have no grasp of reality.https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   Permalink 1:49 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Elephant in the room. The Coptic minority, past 20 y’s exodus, represented the majority of merchants & professionals in Egypt. Bagdad was 55% Jewish. Losing disproportionately skilled minorities explains the relative decline of Turkey & Egypt.https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/954848813923127297   Permalink 1:18 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@Cockneywonder For some people it’s money, for others it’s a femme fatale, but they hook you with squid ink, these Ruskies are just too cunning. Permalink 2:16 PM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I also vehemently deny the rumor that I understand Russian. I deny. Permalink 4:07 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Moscow had 6 minutes sunshine in December Permalink 4:00 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Conspiracy theorists: I am transiting in Moscow airport. 3 hours… They had something like only a few minutes of sunshine in past month. pic.twitter.com/ZrAAG96fVf Permalink 3:46 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I remained silent with verbagiastic Tetlock’s @Ptetlock comments about my election forecasting (to other clueless psychologists) without even getting basic stuff about probability and forecasting. No more. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf  https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/954660774487756800   Permalink 2:34 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@0xAC1DBA5E A picture is worth a thousand words. This is so much better than all the anecdotal political bullshit from pseudo academics. Permalink 2:17 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The genetic map of mankind looks like a triangle with 3 corners, points on only 2 sides, & almost nothing in the interior. The vertical axis counts less than the horizontal one as the 1st PC explains the bulk of the distance. Permalink 7:38 PM – 19 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath #6 – an interesting probability problemhttps://twitter.com/maanow/status/952255844367790080   Permalink 4:22 PM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The method is explained very very well on Wiki pic.twitter.com/r976uAeVqY Permalink 11:45 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb To understand the Mary Beard BBC cartoon problem, here is a 2-D genetic distances of the world (PCA); the map seems to work (if you are confused about Peru, it is not without a reason). Wonder if someone has seen a 3-D PCA cc:@PZalloua pic.twitter.com/xLRSGI51FN Permalink 11:23 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@normonics the irony of the responses that only no SITG academics would utter. like saying there is ‘surprisingly little evidence’ that survival (and non-survival) plays a role in evolution. Permalink 5:50 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) For Context about #nudgeboy’s misunderstanding the very concept of Skin in the Game. pic.twitter.com/TstvWlxrRA Permalink 12:40 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Other problem nudgeboy @R_Thaler holds (in support of verbiagiastic @PTetlock) that a psychological experiment can show … how can hide risk? How can a psychological experiment reveal RISK HIDING and the Bob Rubin Trade? Who is he fooling? pic.twitter.com/yNKR8gtH1w Permalink 12:08 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) I had some restraint with @PTetlock for past years until yesterday when he used the “best-selling author” to dismiss my technical arguments; Finance professor @WGoetzmann did same with”airport books”). Given what I know about his probabilistic understanding, Tetlock is done. Permalink 11:42 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) If you want to understand why @r_thaler (who blocked me on Twitter) keeps nervously defending ag. my criticism, remember the effect of getting the “Nobel” on one’s insecurity. R_Thaler is short volatility.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/902138152281919488   Permalink 11:29 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Mr @PTetlock isn’t getting that if it is “hardly new”, WHY is he conflating ensemble probabilities & time series probabilities? Why is he ignoring absorbing barriers/tails? So either it is not new & he is totally INCOHERENT or … Keep digging.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/954035896260661248   Permalink 10:47 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@CgGeagea “The historical trick is that it was the Ottomans who were Francophile! (Actually Greco-Roman-phile).” @nntalebhttps://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/when-did-lebanese-christians-start-speaking-french-771603969932   Permalink 10:08 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) This list summarizes what’s wrong with behavioral economics. A more expanded piece to follow. pic.twitter.com/VKVQKfyFGX Permalink 3:19 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) In fat tailed environments, or under trial-and-error convex payoff, how often one is wrong has no bearing for those w/#skininthegame. The payoff from tail success will dominate. Pretty much everything done by psychologists on probability, @rthaler or others, is pure garbage Permalink 3:18 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The opposite. There is no payoff. Forecasters forecast success probability not payoff from success, hence will game the system. In the real world what matters is what you get when right, not HOW OFTEN right. See Silent Risk or the stories in INCERTO, part. Fooled by Randomness.https://twitter.com/MLescrauwaet/status/953943622608670720   Permalink 3:00 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) ALPHA MALE PRIVILEGE Trump’s voters have no illusion: they elected an alpha male with the “defects” that come with it. They knew they were’nt electing a pope, a schoolteacher, or an Ottoman eunuch. Permalink 12:42 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb KPACIVO pic.twitter.com/hvP38aH8wn Permalink 12:13 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@salilstatistics Your summary @JGreenblattADL/@ADL_National is what is irresponsible. Only stating “70+% of extremist murders” are by white supremacists, with “only” 26% by Islamic extremists. And failing to note that 70+% of the population is White, while “only” 1% is Islamic. cc @nntaleb Permalink 8:24 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@normonics This guy is claiming there’s not much evidence that evolution works. SITG is necessary condition for evolution.https://twitter.com/r_thaler/status/953756430904868865   Permalink 7:11 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@pmaymin The @nytimes published my letter to the editor about @realDonaldTrump: http://nyti.ms/2FN8WTC   cc @nntaleb Also the slightly longer pre-edited version attached; main difference is USSR sentence. Which is better? ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/UK0K0q4Eod”>  pic.twitter.com/UK0K0q4Eod Permalink 6:43 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@AStratelates I don’t know of any instance of Taleb ripping into someone who didn’t deserve it. Permalink 2:49 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@pauld1981 @nntaleb I doubt the research includes “dynamic repeated decisions”https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/953756430904868865   Permalink 2:42 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Why pple like @PTetlock can’t understand decisions and forecasting.https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 2:21 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb BS continues: He didn’t get SITG. SITG is a BS filter so those who have it are subjected to Darwinian selection/ absence of ruin. IT IS NOT EVALUATED FROM SINGLE ISOLATED DECISIONS, but from dynamic repeated decisions. Forecasters in words aren’t subjected to ruin.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/953741253409165312   Permalink 2:17 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) In other words, as Yogi Berra said: “You can’t tell them if they don’t know” Permalink 12:43 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Another example that those who don’t have skin in the game will never, never realize that skin in the game is the marker.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/953229284218372096   Permalink 12:37 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb KA3AKCTAH pic.twitter.com/v1FfQiMjP0 Permalink 2:27 AM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The George Bush & Barack Hussain Obama administrations let Saudi Barbaria (our ally) brainwash a generation of Saudis into believing that Christians, Shiites, Atheists, Pagans, New Jersey pple & Zoroastrians are deviants.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/953483566557597696   Permalink 8:43 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Choosing the Largest Random Number https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/ChoosingLargestNumber.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/wK4IdQnaRw”>  pic.twitter.com/wK4IdQnaRw Permalink 4:19 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 12) When I talk abt Lebanese war, I talk from #skininthegame & eyewitness: mortar shells in my bedroom, blood of victims on my clothes, disastrous finances, house blown up, family members as hostages, cargo boat rides to Cyprus… Won’t be lecktchured by some low IQ pseudolib. Permalink 2:16 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb An intereting probability problem for the @CutTheKnotMath collection.https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/953035313101885441   Permalink 1:43 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 11) This said I am now in an Armenian (Aleppo) restaurant in East Beirut. Permalink 11:17 AM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 10) “Histories” of the Lebanese war whitewash Palestinians and demonize Christians. They omit the Damour pogrom, in which Christians saw aims at ethnic cleansing similar to what was done to Armenians. Having learned from Armenians, Christians fought back. Permalink 11:38 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@bybloslaqlouq This is the best thread about the Lebanese civil war I have ever read. I’ve been waiting for decades for someone to say this…https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/953011531310125059   Permalink 11:27 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 9) Meanwhile there has to be a minority rule harming the Palestinians by contagion. They displace independent Palestinians such as @saifedean (libertarian/localist) who, as libertarians, have for ethical mission to be model citizens. Permalink 3:42 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 8) The thread started with a “cool” remark. So being on the “left” and “pro-Palestinian” means condoning ethnic cleansing/ extermination, even genocide of Christian minorities in the Levant (not counting the Allawites and Shiites). These are typical “left” wing Arabist values pic.twitter.com/SrWP7UQc7d Permalink 3:02 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb This is the Lindy Effect, ~3-5000 year old. In Semitic languages, it’s called a KTB (ketubah, kiteb), a standard marriage contract (which can be time-defined).https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/953012112330194944   Permalink 2:46 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@DrCirillo Little quiz I asked today. I have a bivariate discrete survival function, for which I know: – P(X≥ x,Y≥ y) – P(X≥ x, Y≥ y+1) – P(X≥ x+1, Y≥ y) – P(X≥ x+1, Y≥ y+1) What is P(X=x,Y=y)? Hint: P(X≥ x,Y≥ y) ≥ P(X≥ x+1, Y≥ y+1), etc. Permalink 2:44 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7b) This said I think nobody should get involved into other people’s problems unless there is skin in the game. The Palestinians were victims of overall bad governance.https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 2:34 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7a) This anti-abstract, anti-monoscale, and anti-power against citizens and groups, is the theme of the (finally discounted) next book.https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/042528462X/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8   Permalink 2:31 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) Let me reexplain. I am a localist, a la Swiss, pro-subsidiarity; pple have the right to self-organize; be neighbors not roommates & let their municipality run its affairs; I am anti repressive top-down universalist system. Left/Right classifications are for pol-sci idiots. Permalink 2:17 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) I am tired of people pointing to doctored-up Wikipedia pages of massacres AGAINST Palestinians, downplaying the trigger of first POGROMS (s.a. Damour) BY Palestininans? Similar to the Syrian war propaganda making it look like Evil gov vs Jihadi Saints. Permalink 1:45 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) I am a child of the Lebanese civil war. Before the war I had been stopped by Palestinian at roadblocks & received gratuitous abuse by their “soldiers” simply because I was a 15 year old Lebanese (Christian). It was common. We were FED up #Skininthegame not some pseudolib BS. Permalink 1:35 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) In 100 years of Armenian presence in Lebanon, all you hear are reports of an industrious community that tried to help. As to Palestinians’ model: biting the hands that fed them HAS BEEN their modus operandi. They did the same in Koweit, siding w/Saddam against their hosts. Permalink 1:15 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) It was a declared objective for Arafat that “the road to Jerusalem goes through (Maronite stronghold) Jounieh”. Permalink 1:12 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) You can’t BS w/history. Two Groups of refugees came to Lebanon. 1) Armenians & 2) Palestinians. Armenians tried to give more than they took. Palestinians tried to “liberate” their land by taking over Lebanon & exterminate Christians as “Crusaders/representatives of West”. https://twitter.com/rawantifada/status/953003987183308800   Permalink 1:10 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@shahidkamal I find half of what @nntaleb writes deeply uncomfortable and challenging, which is why I follow him. Permalink 12:57 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Exactly. You don’t try to change the place that invited you. Permalink 12:35 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb For those slow in getting the point about what my aphorism meanshttps://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 12:02 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb When immigration is done by single individuals, it is immigration. When done by groups, it is invasion. Permalink 11:31 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb This #Beirut film is no different from “Borat” meant to be about Kazakhstan, in which the cast was mostly Romanian Romas speaking Hebrew. Permalink 8:36 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The movie #Beirut was filmed in Morocco with NO Lebanese cast and not a single connection to Beirut other than the name. Permalink 6:11 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Largely p-hacking, among other crap.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/936563894339948544   Permalink 3:26 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Best Twitter (and general) strategy: block any person psychopathologizing another, particularly when there is political divergence. (Use if accusations s.a. “narcissist”, “inf/superiority complex”, etc.) Remember: psychology is junk science. Permalink 2:15 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/23nEGZ5ktm”>  pic.twitter.com/23nEGZ5ktm Permalink 1:54 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb It just hit me from @MTayyabAhmed’s remark that indeed you don’t really exist if you are not free in something.https://twitter.com/MTayyabAhmed/status/952648027046588417   Permalink 3:50 PM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink Phoenician style in Central Phoenicia pic.twitter.com/zOEB1Sfquh Permalink 11:04 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@EHSANI22 Mosaic flooring discovered near Hama (oqairabat) as Syrian Army was clearing mines. Writing seems dedicated to Saint Alexander and to a most respectful bishop named Evangelus. ΕΠΙΤΟΥΑΓΙΟΥΚΑΙΕΠΙΣΚΗΜΩΝ ΑΛΕΞΑΝΔΡΟΥΤΟΥΟΣΙΟΤΑΤΟΥΠΕΡΙΚΑΜΜΟΥΚΑΙΤΟΥΕΥΛΑΒΕΣΤΑΤΟΥΕΥΑΝΓΕΛΛΟΥΕΥΞΑΜΕΝ” pic.twitter.com/1vGFUQGBm1 Permalink 6:35 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@JosephChimienti Reading antifragile by @nntaleb and says a man’s only free when he judges with full sincerity. Must call a spade a spade. Permalink 5:26 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Every single item at the Sunday extended family Lunch in Amioun has an indigenous name. No Arabic. pic.twitter.com/wN1OGDjSB0 Permalink 4:05 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Stable definition of Communist = Highly Selective Memoryhttps://twitter.com/phl43/status/952509904593530880   Permalink 4:02 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A new version of “No, Lebanese is not a ‘dialect’ of Arabic”. Truly, Semitic linguists don’t know how to categorize.https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 2:28 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Denial being of course a necessary but insufficient condition. Permalink 2:12 PM – 13 Jan 2018

@nntaleb No rumor is true until officially denied.https://twitter.com/billclinton/status/952271892756553728   Permalink 1:43 PM – 13 Jan 2018

@Spfannenschmidt “Le courage est la seule vertu que l’on ne peut pas feindre.” NN Taleb @nntaleb Jouer sa Peau, p268 https://www.lesbelleslettres.com/contributeur/nassim-nicholas-taleb   Permalink 6:02 AM – 13 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Sam Walters’ Four Questions https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/SamWaltersFourQuestions.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra with thanks to @SamuelGWalters ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jQAtJHsfVL”>  pic.twitter.com/jQAtJHsfVL Permalink 2:37 PM – 12 Jan 2018

@nntaleb If there us to a piece of advice from me you want to remember, take the following: Never use Google Maps in Beirut. Never. Permalink 9:26 AM – 12 Jan 2018

@MarcosCarreira Mathematica notebook and converted PDF available here: http://mcarreira.typepad.com/mc_notes/2018/01/russian-roulette.html   partitions*multinomials=>compositions*(generalised derangements)=>possible sequences Permalink 3:48 PM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I’ve plan in 2018 to 1) be more blunt, 2) be much, much, much more stubborn, and 3) have more squid ink.https://twitter.com/des_turner86/status/951581775536455680   Permalink 2:50 PM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Parigi pic.twitter.com/QbvMKi14Q7 Permalink 12:19 PM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb In Paris with @MarcosCarreira arguing about the most “elegant” solution. He is using overlapping tuples, I am using the Multinomial distribution. (Marcos is doing a PhD in Math Finance at Ecole Polytechnique) pic.twitter.com/qQ0AssTkws Permalink 9:55 AM – 11 Jan 2018

@Spfannenschmidt French term of the day : attrape-couillon — Jouer sa Peau par NN Taleb @nntaleb p223http://choualbox.com/CKWsy   Permalink 9:44 AM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb “Jouer sa Peau” dans Philosophie magazine. pic.twitter.com/NbdXTkRdir Permalink 3:41 AM – 11 Jan 2018

@PZalloua Phoenicians were explorers, not conquerors! @nntalebhttp://www.newsweek.com/dna-mysterious-ancient-civilization-phoenicians-explorers-greeks-romans-774524   Permalink 11:27 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The unfortunate part of breaking a fast: makes you less aggressive, less active in BS debunking, less of a hunter. You need to act *while* fasting. I had on my agenda setting @jordanbpeterson straight/ teaching him a lesson on reasoning, science & ethics; becomes less urgent. Permalink 5:55 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Sokrates used to walk around the house delaying his meal as he held that hunger was the best seasoning. (#Antifragile) Fasting can turn any meal into a Michelin 3 star. Permalink 4:54 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Bone marrow. It makes fasting easy when you know the exact reward. pic.twitter.com/BKhHZchqFD Permalink 4:42 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Paris: breaking the second fast (40h) pic.twitter.com/YeLNQubZGN Permalink 4:27 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@melodielaggaffe A video by @nntaleb on how to write #Lebanese. Answering the question why Said Akl alphabet didn’t catch up immediately without even tryinghttps://youtu.be/5ejHYQ4ihgI   Permalink 3:46 PM – 9 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Group Russian Roulette – The Easy Part #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/r8SkphLTin Permalink 1:16 PM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb And the best nutritionist is your great-grandmother.https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/950110908533084161   Permalink 12:43 PM – 9 Jan 2018

@lpbreva This will keep you sane and will help you ignore all the advice you’ll get about “validating” your idea. @nntaleb put it nicely in a recent tweet: “Social scientists want to ‘learn statistics’ w/o understanding probability.”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/881500380479279104   Permalink 11:09 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@TheBondFreak @bigfatsurprise That could be one of the most ignorant statements I’ve ever read. @nntaleb would have a field day with that guy. pic.twitter.com/FeoyUxXeSy Permalink 9:48 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@JMJalel_H @nntaleb mentions #Libya 2011 to explain his new book’s title—“Skin in the Game”: “If you’re a #Paris official with a nice house in the countryside & a taste for ski vacations, then of course it is very easy for you to be in favor of a military intervention by #NATO in #Libya.”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/950756404473794560   Permalink 9:13 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb How to write Lebanese (in Lebanese) https://youtu.be/5ejHYQ4ihgI   via @YouTube Permalink 8:33 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Une breve présentation de mon nouveau livre deja en librairiehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzBdTV8Qwo8   Permalink 7:49 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@Darius1296 So the correct way to use R^2 is to theorise a relationship between two variables first, and then use R^2 to test that theory? The fallacy is to try out every single curve and pick the one that maximises R^2. Permalink 3:15 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Solution for the Christmas binge: Fast 45 hours, visit the gym during the fast, and you are done. Permalink 4:56 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb So we can call it the Tolstoy-Friedman rule. Milton Friedman (who was a remarkable statistician) used to tell students: “If you don’t see it in Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), it’s not there.” Permalink 3:09 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb In other words, as Tolstoy told us: “You can be linear in only one way, nonlinear in zillions of ways.” Permalink 12:46 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A detail every appliedprobastatisticists needs to spot. Whenever it’s not a straight line, R^2 cannot be what is claimed because we lose degrees of freedom from fittin *which* nonlinearity. Insight from Milton Friedman. @DrCirillo and I will diskuss in our new book.https://twitter.com/afrakt/status/950323771847659520   Permalink 12:40 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) The point is not that he thought that Debt =>Wealth, but that what he had constituted a definitive “scientific proof” and that, to him, the problem was settled. Permalink 11:42 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Nice to see legal theorists catching up to the minority ruuuuuuule. http://scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1074&context=wlulr-online   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/a1KduxGkSZ”>  pic.twitter.com/a1KduxGkSZ Permalink 7:42 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb His “proof” was: Debt was up => GDP/inventions went up. He could not get that, also “Smoking went up => GDP went up” or “pollution => GDP went up”. So I called him an idiot. Permalink 6:32 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I once called Michael Wolf (Trump’s biographer) a IDIOT to his face at a London dinner Q&A event 6 years ago. (He claimed having an “indisputable scientific proof” that debt “caused” prosperity, the industrial/technological revolutions…) @rorysutherland @Silva Permalink 6:24 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Antifragile: stress, and only stress improve bone density. 6 years later.https://twitter.com/jama_current/status/947112544161943552   Permalink 7:13 PM – 7 Jan 2018