Tag Archives: Ludic Fallacy

SOME BS DETECTION – I feel compelled to debunk a deceitful “experiment” (actually a total scam)

SOME BS DETECTION – I feel compelled to debunk a deceitful “experiment” (actually a total scam) because many many of my friends fell for it. The experiment illustrates the ludic fallacy (that is, a reduction of real life to an oversimplified, domain-dependent experiment giving results often opposite to reality).
-We are shown identical twins, one chewing gum, the other completely idle (or trying to be so). We are told that the majority of people imparts positive qualities to the one who is chewing gum … and that the experiment was done with a “large n” of twins. But these results come from the fact that he is animated while the other one is frozen, nothing to do with gum –and the fact that someone standing still in front of a camera looks devoid of human qualities.
-Note that the chewing gum industry is financing the “experiment”.
-To make the experiment “real” or “ecological”, you need to film the twins in real life doing real things, only one of the two chewing gum.
– GENERALIZING: In a nutshell, although this is not a real experiment, it shows in a carricatual way why many academic papers in social science are BS in spite of looking like a “controlled experiment”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVsD8Pm0gBI

Beldent chewing gum commissioned this social experiment which is now going viral. At the Museum of Contemporary Art of Buenos Aires, a slew of twins were pla…

 

via SOME BS DETECTION – I feel compelled to debunk a… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Binary vs Vanilla Payoffs and Predictions: An error in the research/risk literature | Taleb’s MOOCs

Published on Aug 21, 2013
Micro-Mooc on a paper by Taleb and Tetlock (one manifestation of the LUDIC FALLACY). There are serious statistical differences between predictions, bets, and exposures that have a yes/no type of payoff, the “binaries”, and those that have varying payoffs, which we call the “vanilla”. Real world exposures tend to belong to the vanilla category, and are poorly captured by binaries. Yet much of the economics and decision making literature confuses the two. Vanilla exposures are sensitive to Black Swan effects, model errors, and prediction problems, while the binaries are largely immune to them. The binaries are mathematically tractable, while the vanilla are much less so. Hedging vanilla exposures with binary bets can be disastrous–and because of the human tendency to engage in attribute substitution when confronted by difficult questions,decision-makers and researchers often confuse the vanilla for the binary. The paper is here: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2284964
More general Fat Problems with Tails: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html