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LOCALISM, Identity Politics, Banksy, Kashoggi, Berlin, Crying In Public, Boulder, Reputation, Popper, Minority Rule, Kasparov, Pinker, Ketogenesis | Twitter

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https://twitter.com/naval/status/1044691366888927233

@highnoontide This perfectly explains why @nntaleb once suggested Nobel Prize in Economics be banned. https://twitter.com/j_lovering/status/1049283173866192896   Permalink 9:33 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ethical Inquiries and Discussions pic.twitter.com/dC4Fscoiuv Permalink 8:36 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@spyrosmakrid 2/ People who consumed a diet high in meat and dairy had a 22% decreased risk of heart attack and a 25% decreased risk of early death (28 Aug. 18) https://www.escardio.org/The-ESC/Press-Office/Press-releases/Components-of-heart-healthy-diet-may-differ-from-what-was-previously-thought   #Forecasting #Diet ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/UaahWBBj0i”>  pic.twitter.com/UaahWBBj0i Permalink 6:11 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@GuruAnaerobic All this misses the point about SCALE, a la @nntaleb – “LOCALISM: At Fed level, libertarian; state, Republican; local, Democrat; family/friends, socialist”. https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1048946544551100416   Permalink 4:59 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@nntaleb If you want someone to read ALL your tweets, block him or her. Permalink 2:12 PM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Deleted tweets are more informational than regular ones. https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1049039025821155328   Permalink 2:00 PM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Just lecktured the Hackers Congress (Prague) via Skype that distorts my face. https://twitter.com/austinmcraig/status/1048981750045528064   Permalink 1:57 PM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Banksy provides a perfect illustration of the potency of *via negativa*. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/alxpr1c3/status/1048635864585310208   Permalink 8:44 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb So it is easy to eliminate Kashoggi because he has no tribal links, people who would seek revenge. https://twitter.com/ZJoureir/status/1048934611299045376   Permalink 7:31 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb ABSTRACT UNIVERSALISMS AND PSEUDOIDENTITIES 1) People conflate differences between groups and difference between individuals. 2) Identity politics leads to stereotyping, no different from racial profiling. pic.twitter.com/CbUVmCrZbn Permalink 7:03 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In Turkish, Kaşıkçı means spoon maker. Permalink 6:53 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb An uninteresting twist to the Khashoggi story is that Khashoggi is not a Saudi Arab, but a Turkish-Syrian name. Permalink 6:39 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #antifragile #tesla #blackswanmobile pic.twitter.com/VOAcJ6Q5xf Permalink 6:31 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ethics pic.twitter.com/vkSUEHZv7H Permalink 4:11 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The problem is that people engage shills thinking their arguments will change their minds. You see it with Monsanto shills, with agents of Saudi Barbaria, etc. Permalink 3:57 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@acommonlawyer I’m with @nntaleb on this: income post-public office should not exceed that available in public office. Otherwise, post-office income for previous incumbents ≈ implicit bribe for current incumbent; “stay on our good side and we’ll make you rich when you’re done being president”. https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1048874388874022912   Permalink 3:01 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@HsenAndil I started recently translating Le Petit Prince into Lebanese. This is still a first draft, in terms of the script/orthography, and the translation itself (wording). Feedback from natives would be highly appreciated. Here’s a link to the first chapter: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1erV9jAtNdys82F2hy1LAB43BmSW-DK6x/view?usp=sharing   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/T4rwjDfWwy”>  pic.twitter.com/T4rwjDfWwy Permalink 1:46 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb How you can tell a Saudi government shill, even without tracking his funding. Some idiots engage him. https://twitter.com/aliShihabi/status/1048684171072327681   Permalink 4:55 PM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Solution with probabilistic approach pic.twitter.com/hKDYjfc5Xc Permalink 6:07 AM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Note that there is no such thing as a “thinker” who is not a FREE (that is independent) thinker. Gabish? https://twitter.com/sirchappyquiddi/status/1048532476157677568   Permalink 4:22 AM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A partisan’s (or an ideologue’s) assessment of a situation doesn’t depend on the situation. Permalink 4:01 AM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Note: I systematically block people with cute remarks on math problems. Permalink 4:34 PM – 5 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A math problem a la @CutTheKnotMath for the weekend. Courtesy Dan Sitaru, the Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/F6HdFanbgM Permalink 3:39 PM – 5 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @Mises #humanaction #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/gx0bCzIGF8 Permalink 7:43 AM – 5 Oct 2018

@marciadabliu “Specifically, Brazil and Argentina often use more than 4.5 kilograms of glyphosate per hectare – three times as much as when GM soya was introduced some 20 years ago.” https://twitter.com/testbiotech/status/1047904942097412097   Permalink 2:16 AM – 5 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Mathematicians think in proofs, lawyers in constructs, logicians in operators, dancers in movement, artists in impressions, and idiots in labels. Permalink 9:48 PM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Mathematicians think in proofs, lawyers in constructs, logicians in operators, dancers in movement, artists in impressions, and idiots in labels. Permalink 9:48 PM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Too many people think in labels. Permalink 12:50 PM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This is a prime example the genetic fallacy. The internet was founded as a military application. Please avoid sloppy thinking. https://twitter.com/Yehesz/status/1047808343530565634   Permalink 4:25 AM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The value of a degree is in its RELIABILITY: when ill in a foreign country you can bet the MD has minimal competence. Like a driver’s license. HUMANITIES/SOCIAL SCIENCE degrees offer no reliability. If you don’t know what you get, degrees are worthless. The market punishes BS Permalink 12:29 AM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The value of a degree is in its RELIABILITY: when ill in a foreign country you can bet the MD has minimal competence. Like a driver’s license. HUMANITIES/SOCIAL SCIENCE degrees offer no reliability. If you don’t know what you get, degrees are worthless. The market punishes BS Permalink 12:29 AM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb (Madrid) Permalink 1:50 PM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Madeid (a brief stop) pic.twitter.com/DxGqa8n3gk Permalink 1:08 PM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Please note that I only do book lecktchurs when the book is out in the language, even then. I don’t do book lecktchurs for a living. I prefer technical lectchurs on probability. Permalink 10:13 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Nietzsche #antifragile pic.twitter.com/4ShhS0mDAQ Permalink 9:27 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@asymmetricinfo 1) Almost everyone seems to be missing that this was tax arbitrage, not tax evasion. He was converting estate taxed money into income-taxed income. The size of the net benefit is somewhat uncertain because the conversion lost the benefits of tax deferral until death. Permalink 8:06 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb To understand decentralization/localism. + DC : much higher real estate/hotels prices than most large cities in the US. + Berlin: much cheaper real estate/hotels prices than most large cities in Germany. https://twitter.com/Evansrahal/status/1047476596112801792   Permalink 6:40 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@GuruAnaerobic Optimisation -> Fragility ‘I won Olympic Gold but can’t climb stairs’ – Amy Williams, 36 https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/winter-sports/45714174   Permalink 2:11 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ich bin ein Berliner. https://twitter.com/kungler/status/1047162090815991813   Permalink 9:23 PM – 2 Oct 2018

@kungler Los geht’s mit @nntaleb #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/vauhTwYwIU Permalink 9:31 AM – 2 Oct 2018

@nntaleb No human is more Mediterranean in demeanor, temperament & appearance than Irene Pappas. https://twitter.com/pascal_dorian/status/1044177867784032256   Permalink 5:00 PM – 1 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man Page 17 (2 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #gfc #cbot #popper #mises #nietzsche #gnomesofzurich #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/LQ1HJyaDSL Permalink 1:16 PM – 1 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man Page 16 (1 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #gfc #cbot #popper #mises #nietzsche #gnomesofzurich #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/HsKuETuCX9 Permalink 1:15 PM – 1 Oct 2018

@dannyhakim Prominent academic journal issues correction conceding that that “Monsanto Co. didn’t fully disclose its involvement” in articles declaring glyphosate safe. Raises latest questions of transparency in pesticide research. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-27/monsanto-s-role-in-roundup-safety-study-is-corrected-by-journal   Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Presented the new book to charlatans. The reaction (yellow) https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Vq72bUo9JT”>  pic.twitter.com/Vq72bUo9JT Permalink 3:41 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@nntaleb After the Macbook MacOS patch, even slower. @WolframResearch pic.twitter.com/hd1Ekt3h23 Permalink 2:54 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Last night I dreamed that I was given The job at the Federal Reserve. I walked in and announced that 1) every economist with an academic origin would be laid off, 2) every statistician who used “variance” in a research paper would be immediately terminated. Permalink 2:25 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@ggreenwald I always genuinely wonder: are DC foreign policy elites like @SamanthaJPower so inebriated with American Exceptionalism that they really believe it’s different when they do it, or do they know it’s the same but cynically view everyone as dupes? Probably differs for each offender. Permalink 11:39 AM – 30 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Duesseldorf The German Publisher put me in a hotel with a fully functional bathtub on the balcony. If these things don’t make you a traditionalist, I don’t know what will. pic.twitter.com/MuvfG17jRy Permalink 6:49 AM – 30 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://mobile.twitter.com/robkopacz/status/1046133861225246721   Permalink 1:49 PM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The only person who showed spine inthe episode was Lindsey Graham. I hate him. He is a neocon. He is an interventionist. But he showed spine. Permalink 12:44 PM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb This is not a job interview for auditor in chief at the local utility company. This is a lifetime apptmnt as a justice in the Supreme Court. It entails tough decisions. Very tough decisions. Gabish? Permalink 12:16 PM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Someone finally got it. They are all weak (both sides), insecure, lacking in grandor, and it’s a shame we are dragged into this s***t. America deserves much better. https://twitter.com/ryanpflynn/status/1046106181683556354   Permalink 11:45 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Someone finally got it. They are all weak (both sides), insecure, lacking in grandor, and it’s a shame we are dragged into this s***t. America deserves much better. https://twitter.com/ryanpflynn/status/1046106181683556354   Permalink 11:45 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-assembly-syria/syria-foreign-minister-tells-u-n-country-is-ready-for-refugee-return-idUSKCN1M90IA   Permalink 11:09 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The point is that it is not a good idea for a journalist to abet fraudulent information, particularly that I an vindictive enouth to make their lives miserable for decades. Permalink 6:47 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Answer: A 4 leg version of Jensen’s inequality. pic.twitter.com/DonVIDZtMB Permalink 5:15 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Joe Wiesenthal, @TheStalwart why are you spreading fake student evaluations by the anonymous @quantian1? Unethical. Permalink 4:04 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Lshghl bekassel l kifr. In praise of idleness. https://twitter.com/blebnene/status/1045947259937050625   Permalink 2:40 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1045927760277966848   Permalink 12:58 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Some Saturday morning Math in the style of @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/nrf10gZST3 Permalink 12:02 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3) Not to mention that the employer of @rmslim is the @Middleeastinst paid by Persian Gulf states to promote Salafism & help destroy minorities & localists in Syria. In other words @rmslim is a PAID propagandist for evil Salafi states and some idiots unknowlingly engage her. Permalink 11:46 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The problem of Near East conflicts is that those with skin in the game have been sacrified for the sake of the principles of those with no skin in the game. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 11:40 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1) Someone sitting in the comfort of a think tank office (with a fridge full of yoghurt drinks) dictating what aid people on the ground in Syria should receive in order to satisfy her grand principles. #SkinintheGame. https://twitter.com/rmslim/status/1045922250015330304   Permalink 11:39 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@rorysutherland From @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/CpJ1T0nUqF Permalink 1:36 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Some of the commentators (#idiots) here don’t get that the two statements: 1) believing that K is a victim and 2) believing that K is weaker than expected are compatible. Gabish? Permalink 10:06 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3) I had to coin a word for someone flowing moral values backward in time, 25 centuries: RETROACTIVE BIGOTEERING. https://twitter.com/ProfSimonton/status/1045505514988138496   Permalink 9:34 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The only thing a college teacher of classics can reliably teach you is to become a college teacher of classics. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/923848138493956096   Permalink 8:52 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1) One thing we know: Professors of Spartan history (like this bloke) are no Spartans. The heroes of history were not virtue-signaling library rats. The last person to learn classical values from is career “classicists”. You learn about doers from doers. https://twitter.com/ProfSimonton/status/1045504047879356417   Permalink 8:52 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/773574603205730305   Permalink 8:02 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Crying in public because you saw atrocities and feel sorry for someone else is fine; crying in public because you feel sorry for yourself (& implore others to feel sorry for you) is the greatest marker of weakeness. Permalink 7:18 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb SYMMETRY A soldier was accused of stealing someone’s food and eating it. The commander offered the following Solomonic deal. They kill the soldier and look into his stomach. If there is no food as described by the accuser, the accuser is put to death. Permalink 3:22 PM – 27 Sep 2018

@The_Cyrenian Every major UK newspaper also had “irrefutable evidence” that Iraq had “Weapons of Mass Destruction”, too. A million people died because of that lie. The propaganda, bloodlust and war-mongering of you and your Atlantic Council masters never ends, it seems. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1045189449770881024   Permalink 11:05 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Does anyone have an idea of government funding for economic “research”? Grants to universities, etc. Permalink 7:57 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nicolas_sommet The Spirit Level has been cited ≈10K times (≈700 times in 2018). The book is straightforward: It uses cross-sectional data to show negative effects of #IncomeInequality on health. The problem: It does NOT hold up to scrutiny. Thread pic.twitter.com/WWueTIeQN7 Permalink 7:12 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Can someone explain to this moron that 1) progress = substituting what works RELIABLY better to what doesn’t work as well, 2) too fast a rate of evolution cancels out past gains. https://twitter.com/BorisMozer/status/1045307515452477440   Permalink 6:59 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@ggreenwald Left unaddressed in this deeply moving tweet: why didn’t Obama admin “cut off aid” to the Saudis as it destroyed Yemen? More to the point, why did you feed Saudis with arms & intel to help them do it? Perhaps because you have “no concern for loss of life”? https://twitter.com/SamanthaJPower/status/1045077050409848832   Permalink 4:20 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nntaleb OK, many roads… pic.twitter.com/RruU6HwY0j Permalink 7:33 PM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb MATH DU JOUR For those who survived the morning riddle, a yuugely interesting one. [Please avoid cute nonmath remarks: someone blocks all authors of polluting remarks on my MathTwitter feed and I cannot do anything about it]. pic.twitter.com/JmOJu74Y1c Permalink 6:57 PM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb If Klueless Massimo @mpigliucci produces BS about anything in sight, can he know anything about operational stoicism? https://medium.com/opacity/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 2:18 PM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Note: ALL authors of snide remarks on MathTwitter get automatically blocked. I can’t unblock and can’t stop it. Sorry for the inconvenience. Permalink 10:44 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb My approach pic.twitter.com/I0DMdhJWgl Permalink 10:38 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The IYI class & the conviction by these sub-idiots that they are unconditionally smarter than practitioners. Why Stiglitz still unaware he helped wreck FNMAe and Venezuela. “He [Volker] is the best central banker ever…” “Is he smart like us?”, Stiglitz asked Rogoff. pic.twitter.com/UhbGJ98CQI Permalink 10:20 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb @Jonassibony can help with the Semitic root of 3ta pic.twitter.com/WzFrLO7t7D Permalink 9:17 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Someone arabized Michael Atiyah’s father’s name from Atiyyé in Lebanese to the Arabic Atiyah, when he converted from Greek Orthodox to to Protestant. The idea of Arabism is to kill localism in all its forms. https://twitter.com/EricJagr68/status/1044951476584501248   Permalink 7:12 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The reason we don’t use chalk was initially linked to the asbestos problem. Bring back the chalkboard. You can also use the chalk when deadlifting. https://twitter.com/SimonDeDeo/status/1044950108129947648   Permalink 7:06 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb A math morning riddle to distract ourselves from Atiyah’s proof. Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/3NOgE1RBTJ Permalink 5:21 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@naval Talking live with @nntaleb at @goBLOCKCON on Oct 11. We’ll cover my favorite book of 2018, Skin in the Game, and weave in some crypto. https://www.goblockcon.com/   Permalink 1:53 PM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Institutions don’t like scandals. They are weak. It suffices to have someone STUBBORN like me keep pounding them to fire someone. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/972152554556657664   Permalink 11:17 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Excellent News! Henry I. Miller is no longer at the Hoover Institution. Permalink 11:08 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Kevin Folta (of the Monsanto connection) partook of the smear campaign against anti-Monsanto activist @RachelsNews when she was 15. Let us all applaud Rachel’s courage (she is now 18). https://globalnews.ca/news/2414720/documents-reveal-canadian-teenager-the-target-of-gmo-lobby/   https://twitter.com/RachelsNews/status/1044639812844539904   Permalink 10:36 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I do not give up. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/960317570300735488   Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The best test to figure out if people s.a. Mark Lynas or Tamar Haspel are shills: they support BOTH GMOs and Glyphosate –both of which benefit Monsanto. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1044560980758462465   Permalink 7:28 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@_erratica There are designations, like “economist”, “prostitute”, or “consultant”, for which additional characterization doesn’t add information. N N Taleb @nntaleb The Bed of Procrustes. ~ Permalink 10:14 PM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 4) “My understanding is: the LEFT stands against exploitation & coersion of the weak. The chief exploitation of the public isn’t corporations that go bust; it’s the permanence of rent-seeking fake experts such as Krugman, Bernanke & the neocons who inflict risks on others.” Permalink 3:16 PM – 24 Sep 2018

@ektrit Talebism @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Edourdoo/status/1044272191863427072   Permalink 10:14 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I found “chantage moral” in French which works in some contexts. Permalink 10:12 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR How do you translate ”Bi rabbe7 jmilé” from Leb? Genuinely failed. Permalink 9:58 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@garyruskin When companies bury evidence of harm and pollute the scientific literature with ghostwriting, as the Monsanto Papers show, why should consumers trust them? https://trib.in/2xzELgf   @GregTrotterTrib Background on the #MonsantoPapers: http://bit.ly/2mJSyvq   Permalink 9:50 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@jessefelder In 2006, Nobel Prize–winning economist Joseph Stiglitz praised the economic policies of Hugo Chávez. The Venezuelan president ran one of the “leftist governments” in Latin America that were unfairly “castigated for being populist.” https://www.city-journal.org/joseph-stiglitz-venezuela-16181.html   ht @DiMartinoBooth Permalink 9:32 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb What do we know about David Rothschild @DavMicRot ? He is incompetent in his own subject matter, statistics and pol forecasting. https://twitter.com/davmicrot/status/1043971493334536192   Permalink 9:19 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3) Many are actually IN FAVOR of having “pundits” inflict risks on others with impunity”: those are members of the bureaucratic state. Lawrence Summers @LHSummers EXPLICITLY opposed Skin in the Game in favor of “risk analysis” (debate in Las Vegas). https://twitter.com/fullnelson69/status/1044214702505697284   Permalink 6:31 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) These “leftists” even agreed that”: The central state ends up being controlled by lobbyists The tort system outperforms centralized regulation: EPA was owned by Monsanto (retrospective bribe/hiring former regulators) Banks subjected to bailouts shd have government salaries Permalink 6:15 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Where a 100% left wing crowd agreed with my message: + Localism, bottom-up + Statism is rent seeking by insiders, academics, & cronies + No enterprise without #Skininthegame + No abstract scale-free universalism A different reaction than the one by the statist-militarist “left” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1043980243843743744   Permalink 5:41 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Localism and Skin in the Game. Boulder pic.twitter.com/9lFtLw28vE Permalink 2:47 PM – 23 Sep 2018

@VergilDen 18 yrs of winnings wipped out in one day. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1043888981354647553   Permalink 8:58 AM – 23 Sep 2018

@nntaleb People don’t learn. Skin in the game has the attribute of removing bad drivers from the system. Systems learn by removing. https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1043814843814490113   Permalink 4:19 AM – 23 Sep 2018

@nntaleb So it looks concave (over the long run) 5 reps outperforms the combinations… Permalink 3:50 PM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The problem with performance metrics. #skininthegame https://twitter.com/mehdi_ir_dc/status/1043518161826525184   Permalink 8:17 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The idea is to see on which side of Jensen’s inequality: (locally) convex or concave? pic.twitter.com/XkX0qLQIcl Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb DISCUSSION Nothing more exhilarating than the press! Just the mental energy required to push the metal over your head. Now let f(.) be the benefit & x the # of reps; ignoring injury risks: f(1)+f(9) > (<) 2 f(5) ? i.e., 2 sets of 5 better or worse than 1 RM + 9 RM? Explain pic.twitter.com/Qi5exdub2e Permalink 6:35 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb This was written 21 years ago: “professionals” mistaking probability for expectation. From Fooled by Randomness pic.twitter.com/kwzbT2KWLF Permalink 5:49 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR: Where the 3-4 Population Tests (left) are the analog to what we know in econometrics as GRANGER CAUSALITY (right) [ignore wikipedia, see scholarpedia below] http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Granger_causality   Meaning we can use cross-entropy metrics! cc: @iosif_lazaridis @PZalloua ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cuDcw7kl96″>  pic.twitter.com/cuDcw7kl96 Permalink 4:36 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Which explains why nobody interested in finance should ever follow twitter finance. https://twitter.com/StockCats/status/1043122635926896645   Permalink 4:18 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@wrathofgnon A perfectly medieval aphorism from @nntaleb. One of my favorites. From the book The Bed Of Procrustes. pic.twitter.com/KNlIWZq6BX Permalink 12:21 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb For the hot hand trust the experienced or the real mathematical probabilist. Not the semi-knowlegeable psycholophaster. Half scientists a la @r_thaler are b***tters. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964657750881046528?s=21   Permalink 4:17 PM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Unapologetic style… https://twitter.com/BiankaB12/status/1043216606594326529   Permalink 1:03 PM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Refusing the filter of “experience” is negating evolution. We didn’t make it through zillion of years without helpful statistical intuitions. Permalink 12:18 PM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb It turned out that the “evidence” showing no hot hand in sports is a fiction. Experience trumps pseudostatistics used by social scientists. https://twitter.com/chrisjkuntz/status/1043200573783396352   Permalink 11:13 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@black_swan_man Page 15 (2 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #HumanAction @Mises #nudge #Keynesian #IYIs @R_Thaler @paulkrugman pic.twitter.com/1i4AFYBcFT Permalink 6:05 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@black_swan_man Page 14 (1 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #HumanAction @Mises #nudge #Keynesian #IYIs @R_Thaler @paulkrugman pic.twitter.com/wRNB6vCWvY Permalink 6:03 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb New Title, book almost done. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sSCAxhGDNS”>  pic.twitter.com/sSCAxhGDNS Permalink 2:13 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The Market Is “Sandbagging Us” – Mark Spitznagel Sees “Deeper & Deeper” Crashes Ahead | Zero Hedge https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-18/market-sandbagging-us-mark-spitznagel-sees-deeper-deeper-crashes-ahead   Permalink 10:44 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb If you need your reputation more than I need mine, I own you. Otherwise you own me. Permalink 10:02 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb In BS vending by tagging some pseudoscientific psychological explanation to a wrong empirical fact, nobody beats Pinker. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1042784921398456320   Permalink 9:42 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Comparing the old Macbook pro (left) to the new one (right) using @WolframResearch’s Mathematica. Looks like the new one is SLOWER for Monte Carlo simulations. pic.twitter.com/cn3i22NXQi Permalink 7:43 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb How evil firms use mobs https://www.globalresearch.ca/monsanto-accused-of-hiring-army-of-trolls-to-silence-online-dissent-court-papers/5588396   Permalink 6:40 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) Note that evil corporations use social media to bully critics. Monsanto’s smear campaign against scientists is based on internet mobs organized by @KetchumPR. Permalink 6:12 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb If social media scares you, change profession. Now. You can no longer be a scholar or scientist if you don’t have f*** you money or f*** you attitude. Otherwise you’re at the mercy of mob lynching. Ian Buruma abt pple “not convicted by the judiciary but by social media”: pic.twitter.com/sfl7QOb0K9 Permalink 5:57 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Three slides that summarize the problems with risk. https://twitter.com/mZargham/status/1022110281001050112   Permalink 3:16 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb My greatest fear is to have someone who just as Soros who got Popper’s Open Society exactly backwards & funded an “Open Society Inst.” for a Platonic bureaucrat-led #skininthegame-free monoculture, starts an *Incerto Institute* promoting Kantian scale-free Universalism. Permalink 2:34 PM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Which is the reason I hate interviews; they try to force you to reduce a book to a fortune cookie-compatible expression. https://twitter.com/daviduvaydov/status/1042463961826947075   Permalink 1:47 PM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Minority rule https://twitter.com/justinraimondo/status/1042427028094382080   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Minority rule https://twitter.com/JustinRaimondo/status/1042427028094382080   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@spyrosmakrid The major finding of the paper The forecasting accuracy of the best ML method was lower than the worst of Stat ones while half the ML methods were less accurate than a random walk was contrary to the beliefs of the Neural Networks journal that rejected it using a false reason pic.twitter.com/hpItW4OaKL Permalink 5:25 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The reason you can’t trust the press is PRECISELY because they give you the illusion of truth by getting the facts right. https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 4:48 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb People in Lebanon used to rely on timber for heating/cooking (& tax payment to the Ottomans). Fossil fuel allowed the greening across places. It is bad (side effects), but one should NEVER represent a partial picture like this shoddy sensationalist @FranckGenauseau Permalink 4:43 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1) Cedar story is missing the success of new growth across the mountain. 2) @FranckGenauze has never heard of cherry picking/sensationalism/sucker alarmism. pic.twitter.com/iL1mnw7Y0i Permalink 4:37 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Pictures of Leb in 1900 vs today. Clear reforestation. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1028613123157237760   Permalink 4:09 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb MISREPRESENTATION of STATISTICAL PICTURE Journos @FranckGenauzeauare clueless & cherrypicking. Lebanon is currently greening, >150,000 additional Cedar trees at higher level plus rising treeline. The planet is undergoing yuuge reforestation. This demoralizes environmentalists https://twitter.com/FranckGenauzeau/status/1042357182023520256   Permalink 4:02 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@ilSaggiatoreEd Le letture del Ministro #Tria? ‘Skin in the game’ di @nntaleb, dall’undici ottobre in libreria grazie al vostro editore preferito. pic.twitter.com/4saQ9lUBTd Permalink 2:09 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@alexisevdox Great Psychology Today article on #AI and #MachineLearning. If it improves as a result of being faced with and solving problems, it’s #antifragile. Love how @nntaleb’s brilliant concept has invaded the lexicon. https://pos.li/2aferk   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1QzirulIgq”>  pic.twitter.com/1QzirulIgq Permalink 3:10 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Math Problem du Jour. Courtesy: Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/iiKnwv0sxc Permalink 2:55 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I meant these principles https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1038934453974790144   Permalink 2:25 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb PS I am not a libertarian but a localist, i.e. libertarian for higher levels of central government. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1042047309478014976   Permalink 2:22 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1rst stage when I read Hayek. 2nd stage when I read “Nudge” by @CassSunstein & @R_thaler & saw it was pseudoscience in industrial scale & something had to be done about the class of people I later coined “IYIS” (Intellectuals Yet Idiots). 3rd stage w/the Syrian war https://twitter.com/LPNational/status/1042145030406844416   Permalink 2:03 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@mistermircea Actually @nntaleb spells it out in Ch. 17 of Antifragile “The minute I was bored with a book or subject I moved to another one […] The trick is to be bored with a specific book, rather than the act of reading. Avoidance of boredom is the only worthy mode of action.” Permalink 11:55 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@sustain05 pic.twitter.com/ClYmMzeuX7 Permalink 7:55 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The division in politics can be summarized as between + Embedded, complexity-minded, multiscale/fractal localists (politics as an ecology/complex adaptive system) + Abstract one-dimensional universalists & monoculturalists (politics as a top-down engineering project) Permalink 6:46 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Note: When Arabo-Sunni-Islamists want to smear the LOCALISTS & minorities who want bottom-up self-determination, s.a. Christians, Shiites & oth minorities they use tags such as “right wing”, “sectarian”, “fascist”, etc. (Look at behavior of low-IQ fraud-propagandist @shadihamid) Permalink 6:20 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Friends, here is a program for denesting radicals using @WolframResearch’s Mathematica. It doesn’t work here but should in simpler cases. http://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/980264   Permalink 5:23 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The first vol of the INCERTO, Fooled by Randomness, was written ~20 years ago. https://twitter.com/aleksndr_a/status/1041960260846665728   Permalink 3:54 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@ejames_c Hilarious and good: the scent of bad psychology. https://putanumonit.com/2018/09/07/the-scent-of-bad-psychology/   (My favourite bit is probably the one with Nicholas Nassem Taleb’s Grandma). Permalink 7:12 PM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Again, I have NOTHING against chess players. Some have done great things (Nick Patterson, cc: @iosif_lazaridis), many traders, etc. But I have pbm allowing someone who is JUST a chess player to both fail elementary reasoning & use chess for credibility. https://twitter.com/BurntOutCase/status/1041693505326866433   Permalink 7:31 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Mr @Kasparov63 fails logical thinking/meta at many levels. He derives his “expertise” & fame not from intellectual contribution or risk wizardry, but from moving w/ B&W pieces. So we are entitled to wonder abt transferability of such knowledge to risk. https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1041528325037064192   Permalink 6:35 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@normonics If we abolish the electoral college We should also abolish the union 50 free states to manage their own business I say keep the electoral college, a beautiful piece of complex systems engineering enabling multiscale federalism Permalink 5:29 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Nicky the robot from Nicosia. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1041657820523978753   Permalink 5:07 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Lunch in Northern Phoenicia pic.twitter.com/dqiExl3rpD Permalink 4:11 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@Jaffer22915438 @nntaleb Mr. Kasparov, unlike you Dr. Taleb is a man of integrity. Assad’s father actually blew up his home in one war years ago. But Taleb has principles and knows that these jihadist mercenaries from all over are ruining the area. Permalink 3:02 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Mr Gary Kasparov, @Kasparov63, I am currently in North Lebanon as I am writing these lines. Would you agree to come LIVE here if Assad is removed? Yes/No please. I am really fed up with bullshitters who don’t pay a price to the consequences of their actions. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1041533709369991168   Permalink 2:20 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The only way you can be ethical & famous is if you use your reach to expose frauds in society that are *not* (yet) considered frauds & put your reputation at risk. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/naval/status/1041513555961438208   Permalink 1:22 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb As to numerical tricks pic.twitter.com/xLWf4VzMyu Permalink 12:58 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Bernanke mistook the risks accumulation that lead to the crisis for the “great moderation”, in other words got it backward. Anyone who takes him seriously has an mental problem. https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/1041384873989222400   Permalink 12:01 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Chabris has @cfchabris a study showing the memory of chess players being local to the game. Permalink 4:19 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Any systematic study? Permalink 3:54 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Friends, what’s the real life performance of chess players? How do they fare in, say science and business? Permalink 3:51 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb muzzled Permalink 12:26 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb To answer the usual idiot bringing up Popper https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1037273239347703808   Permalink 11:45 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I thought chess players would think in more than one step. Before arguing whether “fascists” should be museled, How do you know if someone is “fascist” if you don’t let him express his opinions? …Or the best way to exercise fascism is to call people fascists to shut them up. https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1041376634446782467   Permalink 11:38 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb OK, there is a theorem for the proof of convergence. Herschfelds Convergence Theorem http://mathworld.wolfram.com/HerschfeldsConvergenceTheorem.html   Permalink 10:59 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@doshijatin 2/5 done ? Permalink 10:55 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1041301771556212737   Permalink 8:25 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb SUNDAY MATH RIDDLE, courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/x5ZGSxUMkD Permalink 4:32 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb DISCUSSION The *phenomenology* of aging as at least partly from the asymmetry of 1) stuff you put into your body (risk of harm> risk of improvement), 2) the nonlinearity of its dose-response (large vs hormetic small dose). (This is 2 ½ years of meth) #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/6d17dO3osw Permalink 6:21 AM – 15 Sep 2018

@Imamofpeace Some journalists lie even more than politicians. pic.twitter.com/J2Q2R15ICy Permalink 9:51 PM – 14 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Why did the Crisis of 2008 Happen? My report *then*, to the Obama commission. All these talkers are still clueless about the reasons. https://www.academia.edu/37409070/Why_Did_The_Crisis_of_2008_Happen   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/SXP8t3iaMo”>  pic.twitter.com/SXP8t3iaMo Permalink 2:44 AM – 14 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Pierre Zalloua visiting me in Northern Phoenicia for some araq and kebbe. pic.twitter.com/tK0b0gB4Hn Permalink 9:50 AM – 13 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Wrong. The Levant coastal areas spoke Greek not Aramaic. https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1040190108782215170   Permalink 4:41 AM – 13 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Delenda MONSANTO. Thank you markets. Let the death spiral start. Bayer is down 30% over the past couple of months. There are >8000 lawsuits coming. Never ever build your business messing with science & smearing scientists. It all comes out. Monsanto shills are unprotected. pic.twitter.com/U00l6c2d1j Permalink 5:43 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3/ Friends, it is thrilling to see a group of rigorous & active Twitter pple correct a journalist on grounds of reason & rationality. The same happened when the Clev Clinic deleted some unempirical medical claims https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1037518226278834177   Our crowd is swelling! Thanks @Twitter! Permalink 3:50 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb KETO DISCUSSION Ketogenesis doesn’t require low-carb consumption. Just infrequent feeding, and not too infrequent at that. Just skip breakfast. (Discussion around Antifragility and Convexity in Medicine) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   cc:@drjasonfung @MichaelSagnerMD @GuruAnaerobic ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sClNDVOb3c”>  pic.twitter.com/sClNDVOb3c Permalink 1:24 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb And the fool still doesn’t get that people insure the EFFECT not the CAUSE. Why is probability/risk so hard for journalists? https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1039946929214566403   Permalink 12:14 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The fact that ~½ taxes are paid by the 1% shd make anyone with ½ brain realize that there is a great deal of redistribution. In fact economists are just rent-seeking parasites w/no economic contribution and it is THEIR relatively high low-risk income that shd be redistributed Permalink 9:13 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb More evidence that economists don’t understand 1) humans, 2) redistribution & its side effects, 3) lack of envy on the part of noneconomists 4) much of anything else https://twitter.com/kaushikcbasu/status/1039326885136744449   Permalink 9:05 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb More Popper on the IYIs, the nudgers, the Platonic “experts”. Even gun control… pic.twitter.com/mt1XbtL9CZ Permalink 5:37 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The biggest irony is that what Soros calls his “Open Society” activity is about as un-Popperian as it gets. Permalink 4:45 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Karl Popper, in his Open Society, describes to a “T” the crowd of unelected patronizing “experts” who want to run the lives of people and call those who oppose them “populists”. Beautiful Plato vs Socrates passage. pic.twitter.com/gaTfAnSvZA Permalink 4:41 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I wonder how much money people have wasted paying for news & BS by journalists. https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1039823401790189569   Permalink 3:51 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb You can even compute the time to COVFEFE, @QifaNabki https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/937035937485348865   Permalink 6:29 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Actually can be 31 characters and my answer is if you have only 30 and necessarily start with a letter. Permalink 6:21 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Elias, @QifaNabki the literary name is trigintuple or triacontad (30-tuple) in a 140 sized multiset, which should be (if you don’t start with a space) quite sizeable. pic.twitter.com/hhWmvaZ1cE Permalink 6:19 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Exercise in combinatorics. 1t step, use the English alphabet, 26 letters + space, ?,!,@,&, for a total of 30. 140 characters. Treat lower and upper case as equivalent. Second step, Markov Chain. add a ( under the condition that it closes before a period and that it closes. https://twitter.com/QifaNabki/status/1039674231380946944   Permalink 6:03 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Principle 11: No public institution or agency should be created without an expiration date. pic.twitter.com/xlVD1RrYvD Permalink 4:13 PM – 11 Sep 2018

Kasparov, Gingrich, Monsanto, IQ, Fat Tony, Genius, An Inconsiderate Man | Twitter

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@nntaleb New version of my paper on power laws with stochastic exponent https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.02369   Permalink 5:14 PM – 4 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) Actually there is a heuristic, my days: “A good chess player makes a sharp trader. An excellent chess player makes a dumb trader.” Permalink 7:13 AM – 4 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Garry Boy @Kasparov63 I agree for removing Assad if you settle in Syria & deal w/effects. #SkinInTheGame #SecondOrderEffects #LudicFallacyhttps://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/848989093803552768   Permalink 6:58 AM – 4 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) As @ArmandDAngour can confirm, “Be antifragile or die” is “Vale” in Latin, means also “hello” or “goodbye” @goc9000 Permalink 6:01 AM – 4 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) And #SkinintheGame has not been even completed yet! Permalink 4:57 AM – 4 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Watching #SkinintheGame & #Antifragile leading to firm policy, the dismantlement of the Soviet-Harvard/Thaler-Sunstein IYI machinery in DC. pic.twitter.com/eqoKoh5sq9 Permalink 4:54 AM – 4 Apr 2017

@nntaleb “As Taleb says “become #Antifragile, or die””. I don’t recall said that but it’s good enough.https://twitter.com/andyben/status/849008384233918467   Permalink 3:32 AM – 4 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 3) Wrote inThe Black Swan (Narrative Fallacy chapter)how paranoid people could concoct the most elaborate narrative from minimum facts. Permalink 3:16 PM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) There is a vast logical gap between suspicion based on specific fact & accusation from ZERO information. Permalink 3:13 PM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Years of covering up lack of proof of safety of Glyphosate made the cases accumulate, and Monsanto more & more vulnerable. ByeBye Monsantohttps://twitter.com/GMOFreeUSA/status/849018447782707200   Permalink 3:07 PM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Not only is @Kasparov63 in extemely bad taste & insensitive to victims; but he needs psychiatric evaluation for paranoia/hallucinations.https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/848982714212634627   Permalink 12:48 PM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Antifragile = 2nd order effecthttps://twitter.com/adviceforbernie/status/848953979111452672   Permalink 11:01 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Current critique of IQ is that it doesn’t measure socio-emotional, dancing intelligence… Nonsense. IQ doesn’t capture 2nd order reasoning. Permalink 10:30 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb He also protects Copts from the Salafis and the previous government who dhimmified them (treated them as 3rd rate citizens).https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/848940653308514304   Permalink 10:11 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb When I see the NYT blame people who made their money BEFORE office, not AFTER office, I cringe. I cringe.https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 9:59 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@MattheWrite Hey losers, as @nntaleb pointed out, it’s better they made their money BEFORE taking office than afterhttps://twitter.com/nytimes/status/848892884791287809   Permalink 9:36 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Academic measures of IQ are bogus (too 1st order) But one’s output on Russian conspiracy/Trump is an excellent measure of intelligence. #IYI Permalink 8:42 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb They don’t speak Arabic, but (moderately) Arabized Aramaic. Note 164 http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm  https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/848856606288748546   Permalink 4:22 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Trying to read a paper. Which is LESS guilty of fake news (WMD-Iraq, Russo-showers), etc.? Ignore pol orientation, just record w/fake-news. Permalink 3:54 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb This is BS: problem is not absence of causation, but spurious/accidental correlation (cherry picked), one that will not hold next 10 years.https://twitter.com/AmirSariaslan/status/848664012707549185   Permalink 3:34 PM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 6) Even coherence is loosely defined in decision theory: You are NOT incoherent if your preferences change when information not identical. Permalink 3:24 PM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 5) Antifragile: how intransitivity of preferences (Prefer A to B, B to C, C to A): randomization protects from depletion of resources Permalink 3:17 PM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 4) Word “rationality” is not Lindy Proof. It was born with probal/decision theory. Ancients had “wisdom”,”prudence”, sophrosyne, phronesis. Permalink 3:02 PM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 3) Many people misinterpret “rationality” in economic theory. It means just coherence. Permalink 2:59 PM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) If a cognitive “bias” is helpful, it is not a bias. There is NO theory of rationality that makes superstitions & religion irrational. Permalink 2:58 PM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 1)Result from 3 d discussing rationality in Bielefeld: no theory of rationality cares about decisions, only consequences Gigerenzer, Binmore pic.twitter.com/Hpf2yJiPYw Permalink 2:55 PM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Brilliant and ruthlessly impeccable logic: @DineshDSouza explaining #skininthegame to a “leftist” student at Amherst.https://twitter.com/DavidBCollum/status/848577884931235840   Permalink 10:11 AM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Government shouldn’t be into dietary guidelines. Once they get a mistake in (as with carbs, HF corn sugar & salt), they cannot get it out. Permalink 8:33 AM – 2 Apr 2017

@SantiagoAuFund When follow supposedly deep thinkers on twitter & all they discuss is 1st level Russia Trump thinking u come to embrace @nntaleb IYI mantra. Permalink 7:03 PM – 1 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Now we pathologize success in America? Wealth BEFORE gov. much better than AFTER. Imbecile journos http://nbcnews.to/2ojMknA   via @nbcnews Permalink 3:30 PM – 1 Apr 2017

@nntaleb .@ArmandDAngour Suis la elle te fuit Fuis la elle te suit (Version moderne) Permalink 10:02 AM – 1 Apr 2017

@zaoyang If you’re using more than two reasons in a pro and con column you are likely trying to convince yourself. Via @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/y9G8HTDvgw Permalink 8:28 AM – 1 Apr 2017

@nntaleb (Cont) pic.twitter.com/iG3csbYaFJ Permalink 5:57 AM – 1 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Fat Tony vs Socrates, a Platonic dialogue pic.twitter.com/XipZZtaJZr Permalink 5:57 AM – 1 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Fat Tony debates Socrates in Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/__aesthete__/status/848001162217259008   Permalink 2:51 AM – 1 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Another problem with economists: their sense of humor is so… economist; you get what I mean.https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/847930504448020484   Permalink 4:25 PM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb .@nntaleb (testing) It is like drama that amplifies through transmission. Permalink 4:20 PM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Number of war casualties tends to drift upwards w/o information, bias coming from pple afraid to err on downside. Same as inflation.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/847507095414906880   Permalink 1:45 PM – 31 Mar 2017

@ClimateAudit Bronze Age Hittites were Indo-European. In Iron Age, descendant neo-Hittites localized in north Syria, SE Turkey. IE attributes unsurprising pic.twitter.com/ZsaF19PuXK Permalink 1:38 PM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb From @PZalloua’s genetic evidence, story emerges Assyrians & Phoenicians were “Indo-Europeans” w/Semitic lang (but not Babylnns/Chaldeans). Permalink 1:21 PM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Western Syrians (Lattaqia->Homs) are actually cross betw Greeks & Anatolians, related to Kurds, w/less Semitic J1 than other parts of Med.https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/847899807305711616   Permalink 1:17 PM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb One proof a day keeps the philosophasters away. pic.twitter.com/GyrNuvJPZp Permalink 10:06 AM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb An example of news is fake, and facts are false Washington Post Botches The Bible, Lies About Lawmaker’s Bible Quotehttp://thefederalist.com/2017/03/31/washington-post-lies-about-lawmakers-biblical-reference-then-refuses-to-quote-him/#.WN5_yLt3uPM.twitter   Permalink 9:12 AM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Fake experts, s.a. economists & political “scientists”, genuinely believe that when they are wrong, they are wrong in very smart ways. Permalink 8:27 AM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Statistics works better when seen as a branch of logic.https://twitter.com/philipbstark/status/847722147103481856   Permalink 3:44 AM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “Experts don’t mind being told they are wrong, provided they are shown to be wrong for complex reasons.” Bielefeld Festschrift, Ken Bilmore. Permalink 2:55 AM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb One reason we think the past was more violent than reality is because historians like to discuss wars, not peace. Permalink 10:53 AM – 30 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 10) EPILOG, part 1 Nobody noticed that the mere fact of taking the fellow’s picture means he will refrain in future?https://medium.com/incerto/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49   Permalink 5:52 AM – 30 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Why Each One Should Eat His Own Turtles: Equality in Uncertainty”https://medium.com/p/why-each-one-should-eat-his-own-turtles-equality-in-uncertainty-e2b2ee3bcddf   Permalink 5:17 AM – 30 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 9) footnote: If you are outraged by a behavior, never tolerate IYIs who reduce such things to personal fights. Outrage has a social purpose. Permalink 5:44 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 8) Some precedent & philosophical background. We live in large anonymous communities, brought back to natural conditions by the web. pic.twitter.com/PuuviNrFXS Permalink 3:16 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “Inside the Academic Journal That Corporations Love” by @PacificStandhttps://psmag.com/inside-the-academic-journal-that-corporations-love-a1dbe48cca1c   Permalink 2:29 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 7) So the idea is to find the moral balance between not exposing him & exposing him, like type 1 and 2 errors in statistics. Permalink 2:26 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Great point. Symmetry (skin in the game) means you accept to be equally penalized if you committed the same violation @JosephJayMFG Permalink 2:04 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 6) On the other hand there is a moral obligation to protect weak people riding home after a long day from assholes like him. Permalink 1:45 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 5) The only moral problem I have to clarify: he didn’t know who I was, the # of followers, that he could be identified & mobbed & shamed. Permalink 1:43 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 4) When I threatened to take his photo he said: “go ahead”. Permalink 1:38 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 3) When I asked him to be quiet “& considerate” for the sake of the rest of passengers he said it was “not forbidden” to use cell. Permalink 1:36 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb More info: 1)He was chatting for 30min, no emergency 2) People who use cell phones usually go to the side by the exit door & are brief. Permalink 1:34 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb There is an inconsiderate man on Metro North is loud on his cell phone in some Scandinavian language & refuses to stop. Took photo. Permalink 1:12 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The difference between private and public is a matter of scale as much as it is a matter of incentive. Permalink 1:02 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Back to New York: Lindy Effect. pic.twitter.com/BBVw4WBtJF Permalink 9:08 AM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Except for categorical imperatives @primalpoly Permalink 7:53 AM – 29 Mar 2017

@HasHafidh A thread on understanding why “Islamic” extremism’s biggest problem isn’t with the West or even Israel, but rather with Muslim minorities.https://twitter.com/hashafidh/status/749944340848443392   Permalink 7:31 AM – 29 Mar 2017

@Isikoff KSA has “targeted U.S. veterans through a campaign of deception,” says letter to DOJ from 9/11 families.https://www.yahoo.com/news/911-families-seek-justice-department-probe-of-saudi-lobbying-that-enlisted-u-s-veterans-130740119.html   Permalink 6:37 AM – 29 Mar 2017

@sustain05 Convexity effects of rereading ~ via @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/uYGysO6tfP Permalink 6:26 AM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Genius is the side effect of madness, rather than the reverse. Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb No Saudi and Qatari propaganda, CNN ignores them.https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/846808864624447488   Permalink 12:41 PM – 28 Mar 2017

@nntaleb My final tweet for #IRMA2017. I thank Indian friends for the warm hospitality and their appetite for rigor in risk management. pic.twitter.com/4vGu7fprGr Permalink 6:59 AM – 28 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Du Jour #SkinintheGame συγκινδυνεύω= to share danger together. In Plato, thanks to @faleflix. Found in Lucian’s Ass. Latin: simul pericleo? pic.twitter.com/zu5YPtwGUF Permalink 4:34 AM – 28 Mar 2017

Kasparov, Friedman, Pinker Boy, Idiot Journo, Gym Voting, Summers, Lindy Effect, Stiglitz, Parag Khanna, Michiko Kakutani, Obama | Twitter

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@nntaleb Not just this idiot but MSM journos keeps calling “tyrant” a person who never ran a country. Minimum IQ required!https://twitter.com/ARoss2929/status/820430811241521153   Permalink 4:51 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb And Sorry, poor unassisted and courageous Yemen, I keep forgetting.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/820422471887241216   Permalink 4:45 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 6) Obama allowed bankers to have the biggest bonus pool in history, in 2010, just after we bailed them out. Plus Geithner a rep of cronyK. Permalink 4:20 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Obama destroyed Michael Flynn’s career because he was opposed to covert policy of financing/training AlQaeda in Syria @mjb1286 Permalink 4:14 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@yaneerbaryam Tail risk decision-maker, protector of the system. The Prez is the risk manager not the risk creator. Permalink 4:11 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 5) Obama favored Jihadi headchoppers over secularists, financed AlQaeda, wrecked Lybia & Syria, decimated Christian communities. Shame! Permalink 4:08 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 4) Obama-novacaine left us with 10 trillion gov debt for 7-10 mil jobs and hugely increased fragility in the system. Permalink 4:04 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Basically “no scandal in his presidency” sums it all: for we didn’t elect an archbishop for sermons & lectures, but a decision-maker. Permalink 4:00 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) His legacy is an increased centralization in the most complex system we’ve seen, instead of exact opposite. Not the America I want. Permalink 3:58 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 1) My summary of Obama: He is the fellow who, when there is fire in the building, makes a great moving speech, then calls for advice. Permalink 3:56 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Dina Powell is a Copt. She is no “Arab” American; shameful on their part to use identity politics w/wrong identity. @EHSANI22 Permalink 3:43 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb PhilologyParadoxduJour. Levantine for man is zalmé/zolm, Syriac for small/weak; man in W. Semitic GVR, frm ~strong pic.twitter.com/PJOwRRFixH Permalink 9:26 AM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Fails to get that separation isn’t “populist” vs”technical” but Real World competence vs academic “tawk” @tylercowenhttp://bv.ms/2jevRhY   Permalink 7:48 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb You can tell at the arguments used if a person is a crypto-ISIS supporter. “We hate ISIS *but* first… “https://twitter.com/Pyrmha108/status/820062894679330816   Permalink 7:00 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Davos is the Intellectual Yet Idiots IYIs annual convention, joined w/the International Association of Name Droppershttps://twitter.com/linear911/status/820074029994258432   Permalink 6:42 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Great place for Apollo worshippershttps://twitter.com/g_exercitus/status/819993119173255168   Permalink 12:56 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Actually, I would say further, @CutTheKnotMath is the best educational math site on the internet! Permalink 8:58 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Went today to the Roman temple to honor Apollo & found it profanated with Santa Claus & Christmas decorations. pic.twitter.com/X3KTcVQQxE Permalink 8:45 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb From what I’ve noticed linguists don’t get co-linearity, make statistical fallacies @akhchronicles @siinjiim pic.twitter.com/NGjJOijCqL Permalink 7:48 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My first Follow Friday #FF is to @CutTheKnotMath. Follow his twitter math problems for edification, pleasure, or to kill time in airports! Permalink 7:38 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Proving Levantine is not derived from Arabic leads to same for most other so-called “colloquial Arabic” dialects & “Arabism” to fall apart. Permalink 5:11 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shemesh is finally shining on the Southern slope of Mount Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/zBsLMqNwFf Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Voila, in Classical Syriac Baqara also cow @candela3paz pic.twitter.com/iZZ0E9Xvw6 Permalink 4:11 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “House”is “Beit”in Hebrew/Phoenician, Aramaic,& spoken Levantine (rboso), Bayt in Arabic. For idiotArab nationalists, it comes from Arabic. Permalink 3:02 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Today Snow in Mount Lebanon with ominous clouds (from my window). pic.twitter.com/yIhgfx5k7Y Permalink 2:46 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Words such as “syrup” or “sorbet” that come from Arabic actually have Aramaic roots SRB: parched (to offset) pic.twitter.com/uwnqqjgsXo Permalink 2:38 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Much of the similarities between Levantine & Arabic come from Aramaic loan words into Arabic, particularly religious ones @seize_the_dave Permalink 1:31 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Arab “nationalists” believe & spread the BS that pple in the Levant had NO language before the Arabs showed up. In fact it is the reverse. Permalink 1:28 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Finally, I consider an IQ test, rather “Intellectual Yet Idiot” test: IYIs are pro-GMOs for “scientific” reasons.https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.s8o3lvf46   Permalink 12:39 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Also 538 DOES NOT have a good Brier Score: You shd include ALL forecasts! @rpmiller4 @SamWangPhD pic.twitter.com/cpSzbelnS0 Permalink 12:29 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@rpmiller4 @DavisMets @SamWangPhD Brier score doesn’t cover tail risk. Would you use it for airplanes? Permalink 12:22 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Mr Sam Wang who gave Trump <1% shd now know enough abt forecast errors to respect risk @DavisMets @SamWangPhD http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 12:13 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb LEvantine vocabulary, 80% of words used in conversation (Zipf). Very few words have Arabic origin (conflations). pic.twitter.com/eL1j8U1wZi Permalink 10:37 PM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Never trust a journalist except if she’s your mother. (Bed of Procrustes)https://twitter.com/diannawolfe13/status/819423309259481089   Permalink 10:00 PM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The prof doesn’t get it. Tenured profs are there to “pursue the truth” but to make a career. Amateurs pursue truth.http://wpo.st/zlyQ2   Permalink 9:50 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I am certain I am not the only one to see Rex Tillerson as one day President of the United States.http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2017/01/11/tillerson-to-senate-sanctions-harm-american.html   Permalink 8:31 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@DrCirillo Last version of the paper with @nntaleb about operational risk and apparently infinite means: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2681006   A few typos corrected. Permalink 8:03 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@EHSANI22 Rex Tillerson explaining to senators Russian role in global order is like a Professor talking to …………. Permalink 7:49 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@iyad_elbaghdadi You contradict yourself. This is inconsistent w/your classification of Maltese as nonArabs from genes in spite of lang. Permalink 5:57 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I am convinced that Michiko Kakutani is mentally ill. @michikokakutani pic.twitter.com/qn1wVTKgcn Permalink 5:49 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@denver_analyst “Inequality and Skin in the Game” — @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#—0-144.tvz4diwpr   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ewcaGWLIXS”>  pic.twitter.com/ewcaGWLIXS Permalink 5:22 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Justinian’s code: ~ 50 vol generally on symmetry in transactions! Many clauses originally Berytus. #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/6Q6cSwbqLu Permalink 4:59 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Yes, illusion that ideas make it because of some methodological stamp, rather test of time via Lindy @BruBartonSinger @aeronlaffere Permalink 4:34 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I ban Huffington Post from publishing my material that is otherwise public to others.https://twitter.com/TankRizzo/status/819157902392967168   Permalink 4:29 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Malta speaks a Semitic language v. close to Levantine;but nobody insists it’s a “dialect of Arabic”. No ArabLeague.https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/819143770084085760   Permalink 3:45 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Added more sections to my chapter on Lindy https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.u6g3y6ya1   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0KZcPnvg4S”>  pic.twitter.com/0KZcPnvg4S Permalink 3:40 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Reading Theodosius’ code looking for #SkinintheGame & symmetry in transaction. Sharia is too sophisticated to come from Arabia @hosain719 Permalink 1:57 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb If @realDonaldTrump ate ice cream, Krugman wd criticize ice cream. If he ate apples,he wd criticize apples. This is info abt Krugman not DT. Permalink 12:50 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@RonPaulInstitut Where Was Meryl Streep When Obama Was Prosecuting Whistleblowers & Bombing Weddings? http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2017/january/10/where-was-meryl-streep-when-obama-was-prosecuting-whistleblowers-bombing-weddings/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rUBxrLfIdm”>  pic.twitter.com/rUBxrLfIdm Permalink 12:35 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Three stages of the Christmas cheese from M. Spitznagel’s goat farm. pic.twitter.com/OVfNpsxjEf Permalink 9:59 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Not racial: was Rome’s way to control Green-Card marriages. Legal liabilities more punishing for those marrying non citizens (“barbarians”) Permalink 7:29 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Interesting Fact du jour. Theodosius code:Marrying a Barbarian(“gentile”)=capital punishment. Rule made in Beirut. pic.twitter.com/GbpxzydE7w Permalink 5:28 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Added section to https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.ia7askabt   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mVwAvl3Yax”>  pic.twitter.com/mVwAvl3Yax Permalink 4:58 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@philmop Empirical vs Theoretic, Researchers vs Grandmothers, @nntaleb’s top piece on the deprostitutionalization of research http://bit.ly/2jy5VP9   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vO4UiWpv8F”>  pic.twitter.com/vO4UiWpv8F Permalink 3:00 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@NIRPUmbrella A smart PhD economist on his economic outlook after reading ‘The Black Swan’ by @nntaleb. #Complexity pic.twitter.com/xkxEIwZdX9 Permalink 4:21 PM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb It is as hard to fake indifference when you are interested as it is to fake interest when you are indifferent. Permalink 12:52 PM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb This is a more technical version of the problem of non constant Pareto \alpha https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.02369.pdf   @BrankoMilan Permalink 11:11 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My Amazon review of a real book on Foreign Affairs https://www.amazon.com/review/R1MPOC1YEX7D5R/ref=cm_cr_dp_title?ie=UTF8&ASIN=9351777596&channel=detail-glance&nodeID=283155&store=books   Permalink 10:41 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Do you realize this puts you –as a classicist — on top of the pyramid? @ArmandDAngour Permalink 9:45 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Parag Khanna’s ideas about technocracy, US, Singapore, Switz, & why we need smaller Washingtonhttp://wpo.st/I2UQ2   Permalink 6:32 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I just published “An Expert Called Lindy”https://medium.com/p/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf   Permalink 5:53 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Cannanite Shift @oldlevantine @lourou1981 You good; very good. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canaanite_shift   Permalink 4:44 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Stiglitz is the poifect reverse indicatorhttps://twitter.com/guruanaerobic/status/818251394817937408   Permalink 4:24 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@normonics Uncontrolled spreading of environmentally detrimental GMO — systemic risk!! http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pp2.pdf  http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2017/01/grass_seed_industry_fearful_ab.html   Permalink 3:09 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb #MathisBeautiful Fixed! @CutTheKnotMath @republicofmath pic.twitter.com/0ISJqe5OSg Permalink 10:53 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@DanielLMcAdams Does anyone believe Christmas would be celebrated in Aleppo if Washington’s jihadist head-choppers had “liberated” it?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/818088570623770625   Permalink 9:58 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb There were large Armenian quarters in Jerusalem, Aleppo, Alexandria BEFORE the Genocide, thanks to diff church didn’t integrate @TNinestein Permalink 7:45 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Reexplaining the Lindy Effect as well as why is free he who doesn’t care about his reputation. pic.twitter.com/H9w9dPYcQv Permalink 7:28 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Aleppo depended on Cilicia during Tigran’s dominance. @TNinestein pic.twitter.com/1NW4FLEpLQ Permalink 5:49 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Armenian Christmas in Aleppo. The Armenian comm. precedes the Arab conquest. Still there in spite of Hussain Obama https://twitter.com/ThierryMARIANI/status/818027631073492992   Permalink 5:34 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Ms Anya policygoonocrat @AnyaMartin8, pls find a SINGLE concept in my writing not backed up with rigorous technical formulation. Thanks you. Permalink 1:24 PM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A businessperson cares abt his reputation as it facilitates business, not as an end. For people who aren’t free, reputation is the end. Permalink 12:35 PM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 5 abstract & ill-defined words in 140chr: “strong” “vital partner””free” “dictatorship” i.e., can apply to anything.https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/817811092575584260   Permalink 11:30 AM – 7 Jan 2017

@elkement Bookmarked @nntaleb’s post on The New Artisan https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153860152453375   I read it whenever I feel to falter as a small business owner. Permalink 7:09 AM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/cYb1QTGudM Permalink 5:37 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Life isn’t about getting forecasts “right”; it is about navigating the environment and controlling it. Permalink 1:09 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb All talk. It is not people on twitter one shd impress, but the taxmanhttps://twitter.com/AnnPettifor/status/817405431702323200   Permalink 12:31 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shadi Hamid @shadihamid represents the interests of the funders of AlQeda. Much worse than neocon. @FedUpCitizen_ Permalink 11:16 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb And I forgot to add the Copts who deserve our attention the most!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/817409792406855680   Permalink 11:11 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb To my Armenian and Russian Orthodox friends, Merry Christmas! Permalink 8:37 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Proof that entropy under 2nd law leads to thin tails,or why Pinker is a charlatan @sapinker @yaneerbaryam pic.twitter.com/KEmdqFg61J Permalink 7:17 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Nobody is noticing: the entropy error by Pinker boy @sapinker is precisely what leads pple to believe in thintails everywhere. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Syria is the victim of “hotel journalism”: war correspondents clustering in Beirut, far from Aleppo. TBS, 10y ago: pic.twitter.com/pV8zLUybkv Permalink 4:30 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Is it me or there is something wrong with Steven Pinker @sapinker pronouncements on scientific topics? @yaneerbaryamhttps://medium.com/@yaneerbaryam/brief-comment-on-the-second-law-of-thermodynamics-in-human-affairs-885105dc8419?source=twitterShare-f138bf5466fe-1483664469   Permalink 5:02 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@dnlmc @nntaleb Ben Franklin on IYIs (from https://twitter.com/dnlmc/status/810331163797712896  ) ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uW9ho5Zywp”>  pic.twitter.com/uW9ho5Zywp Permalink 4:07 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I’ve learned more tricks & heuristics from Rory than I’ve learned from all other English speaking humans.https://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/817059502944112640   Permalink 1:37 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The usual illustration confirming Math is Beautiful @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/jKsLrjWlm4 Permalink 12:37 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb They live in Washington DC @digvijoy_c @MaxAbrahms Permalink 12:16 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The Babylonian root is shitpu, ashaptu, ashabu, etc.: surge in fire; looking for Ugaritic @asadabukhalil @lourou1981 pic.twitter.com/esBeT7AnRd Permalink 11:24 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@leithfadel Hi @ABarnardNYT – Why did you leave out the part where Kerry says the US used ISIS to pressure Assad to negotiate?http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/30/world/middleeast/john-kerry-syria-audio.html   Permalink 11:06 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb If you want to make sure someone never misses your tweets, block him. Permalink 9:38 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@elliotsanchez @nntaleb Guidelines were wrong for years, we should introduce stressors early for 80% less allergies. Shocked http://www.cbsnews.com/news/peanut-allergies-new-guidelines-for-parents-children/   Permalink 8:07 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shob is in Syriac, apparently not in Arabic @lourou1981 pic.twitter.com/rw96tu221b Permalink 4:38 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@anishraju As always, @nntaleb stays ever relevant. In 2017, subtract unhappiness instead of adding happiness. pic.twitter.com/mw037RwTfj Permalink 3:06 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@MaxAbrahms Do you find it troubling when think tanks that get foreign funding from terrorist-sponsoring countries provide US national security advice? Permalink 7:27 PM – 4 Jan 2017

@JAMyerson It can be easy to overstate the anti-anti-Assad case, but this look at western coverage of Aleppo strikes me as legit and reasonable.https://twitter.com/FAIRmediawatch/status/816692382116806656   Permalink 11:30 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Genuine [the book’s contents]https://twitter.com/khayutsefi/status/816699513494794240   Permalink 10:42 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) The HKM in Heb/Ar are associated with wisdom, HKM= to arbitrate. Here spoken Levantine still uses the original meaning “to medicate”. Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Is it me or something pathological fighting Russia when armed state w/~7mil pop. beheads Americans,kills civilians in West & >10K nonSunnis? Permalink 7:40 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Philology dujour: Akkadian calls doctors Hakkamu,just as Levantine does 4200y later, medicate=Hakkam (Ar = Tabbab) pic.twitter.com/UF69JuEYKU Permalink 6:51 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@ZEEJLF Join @nntaleb as he discusses his multi-volume essay on uncertainty with writer & economist @davidmcw at Cox & Kings Charbagh at #ZEEJLF. pic.twitter.com/NiukpbnDvK Permalink 6:35 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@1rapidus He is not passing for intellectual. Kapish? Permalink 5:40 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb IYI Intellectual Yet Idiot struck a cord as it was obvious. *Intellectual Yet Philistine* is even worse. Idiot is ok, No Erudition is fatal Permalink 5:23 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Now that we are discovering how dumb the “elite” effectively is, plus IYI , they will never recover. Mystique gone.https://twitter.com/David_GISI/status/816444194805968896   Permalink 6:04 PM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Assembly in Aleppo: you can see visibly Western Syrians, incl. Sunnis, are Mediterraneans/S. Europeans, not Arabs. pic.twitter.com/5SLaFsQ7BS Permalink 11:36 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I used to hold Larry Summers in low respect. Today I hold him in negative respect: he magically gets things backwardhttps://twitter.com/LucasHahn1990/status/816353262320304128   Permalink 10:45 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb He gets it. It’s the mechanism, the process, not the idea.https://twitter.com/Mattrud/status/816353990141243394   Permalink 10:44 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@evil_SDOC Lentement, certains lèvent le voile sur la gde escroquerie qu’a été la couverture médiatique de la guerre en Syriehttp://www.marianne.net/syrie-victime-plus-credibilite-mediatique-100248961.html   Permalink 9:41 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Rothkopf @djrothkopf is a fraud; I said it to his face here on twitter. @PALE_Primate @outsh1ned @MusicityManager @GenFlynn Permalink 8:38 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Next week!https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/816033994508800000   Permalink 8:15 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I feel I do not have soul in the game when 1) cutting corners, 2) reading a classic in a different language than original. Like cheating. Permalink 6:24 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK, evidence of Seneca not far. @avisolo pic.twitter.com/FDKd5Z0CIi Permalink 6:17 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb IYI Economists as frauds: 1) compare themselves to pilots in complex self-organized system 2) their planes crashedhttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/815939523964243968   Permalink 12:35 PM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Resolution: to go full Lindy for 2017; set 2 shelves. #LindyEffect @OrodruinR pic.twitter.com/gz6xgRSdCA Permalink 10:35 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I use twitter as scratchpad for the Appendix of Skin in the Game @JakeNabel pic.twitter.com/AplAJ6rLve Permalink 8:14 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “L’émulation et la jalousie ne se rencontrent guère que dans les personnes du même art, de même talent et de même condition.” LB @JakeNabel Permalink 8:10 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shiites, like Christians, have a culture of martyrs; and they have a long, very long memory. Not good for KSAhttps://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/815923696506458112   Permalink 6:21 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “Econmsts praised Piketty’s “erudition” for citing J. Austen; the equivalent to praising the weighlifting of someone carrying a briefcase” Permalink 6:03 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Expanded the chapter on Dynamic Inequality & Envyhttps://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.70i1k3ari   Permalink 5:52 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb (cont) Inequality: Envy doesn’t travel geography and social classes pic.twitter.com/IHuX5uD6vc Permalink 5:46 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The notion “no-one is a prophet in his own land” originates in Aristotle’s Rhetoric. (Libanius,Autob.) #inequality pic.twitter.com/WGVbJak94z Permalink 5:26 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The more data people show you, the more suspicious & intellectually vigilant you should be. Added to Ineq. Chapter. pic.twitter.com/Fki4W2BqnU Permalink 3:57 PM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The proof can be redone graphically. The solution is in corners for the max, and center for min @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/QFmxEUIlMJ Permalink 3:27 PM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Happy 2017 everybody. Hope the new year delivers to you something you deserve but did not dare to wish for. Permalink 9:31 AM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Maybe I should be very worried. @trishankkarthik took my class & didn’t mention probability. Nor deadlifts.https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/815310426586103808   Permalink 3:36 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Corrected typos & glad it passes the test of terrorism expert @MaxAbrahms pic.twitter.com/zINyihHzVw Permalink 2:17 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The author of the book is the boxer, high-flying adventurer, entrepreneur and mathematician @JustinWolfers @Caseyag1 Permalink 2:08 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener. Permalink 1:40 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb New Year Resolutions are in my “Commencement Address, AUB, 2016”https://medium.com/@nntaleb/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b#.17sca2q22   Permalink 1:03 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Ch 8 of Skin in the Game, or How to put the head of a horse in your enemy’s bed. Waiting for @MaxAbrahms to comment pic.twitter.com/I8vpZGXXHJ Permalink 11:50 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Redo everything from the ground up yourself. Never use computerized metrics unless you’ve derived them @sleuthstock Permalink 8:05 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 7) Year end 2016: my use of “boy” as over sign of disrespect (such as “Pinker boy”) https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20boy&src=typd   Permalink 6:57 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 6) Year end 2016: 2017 Resolution 1: Finish Skin in the Game. 2017 Resolution 2: Deadlift 420. 2017 Resolution 3… pic.twitter.com/cmPtWWHmGA Permalink 6:51 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Assuming 50% pr, (½)^{10} =1/1024 so decimal adj @CommonSense190 @ChateauEmissary Permalink 6:28 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 5) Year end 2016: My most read piece, Intellectual Yet Idiot, added PPS https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.2g4c64l2f   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3Q4CWogdKK”>  pic.twitter.com/3Q4CWogdKK Permalink 6:11 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Klueless: The N is not “small”. The probability of randomly getting 10 heads on 10 flips is Permalink 5:28 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Like this @moniker42 Which is a reason to block all journos from your twitter feed. pic.twitter.com/LNaK1QO9fo Permalink 5:13 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This idiot journo doesn’t realize that ALMOST ALL scientific papers are used with same sample size & higher pval.https://twitter.com/moniker42/status/815181276558852097   Permalink 5:12 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@J_Mareeswaran @nntaleb Obama used a law devised to fight Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan to fund Al-Qaeda in Syria. Now explain that. Permalink 2:22 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Beautiful recitation in the language of Christhttps://twitter.com/SYRIAC_MARONITE/status/814994491778236416   Permalink 5:14 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Two packages this PM pic.twitter.com/mIQUlH7xCr Permalink 2:51 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Near East (Mediterranean) and Middle East are different areas historically, ethnically, and culturally. @MattheWrite @EHSANI22 Permalink 2:20 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Hugh Kennedy has it completely wrong.The Arab penetration and Islamization of Syria were v. v. slow outside Damascushttps://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/814955122535124998   Permalink 2:05 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb That was my reaction to dialogue: – Why did Barack Hussain Obama betray the American public by financing AlQaeda? – Things are “complicated” Permalink 12:03 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb We asked Pinker Boy to back up his data & provide technical answers; his reply was *evasive* Englishmajor BS. pic.twitter.com/tkHaarn8DL Permalink 11:58 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Things are never complicated if one has principles. Permalink 11:36 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@GoldOverFiat “Only the autodidacts are free.” -@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/WvIBEFC50h Permalink 10:37 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 4) Year end 2016: Remember that Bloomberg is #FakeNews as @BV has not retracted & @Noahpinion… http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   Permalink 9:50 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 3) Year end 2016 An antology of my squid ink episodes https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20squid%20OR%20ink&src=typd   Permalink 7:53 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Year end 2016: An antology of my twitter arguments as they often include “kapish”, “nonkapish” or “Mr.” https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20kapish%20OR%20nonkapish%20OR%20Mr.&src=typd   Permalink 7:52 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Year end 2016: A compilation of my philology tweets (Aramaic/Syriac, etc.) https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20syriac%20OR%20aramaic%20OR%20levantine&src=typd   Permalink 5:38 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Is computerized aid permissible? Used minimization under constraint @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/TZrQf7dwtY Permalink 5:24 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Hillary/Trump & Weightlifting;results are more significant (according to same norms) than 99% of published “science” pic.twitter.com/5qoWE7RTIa Permalink 3:38 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 3-4 C later it was part of Babylon (Iraq), 5C later if was part of Persia (Iran), 2 C later it was part of …https://twitter.com/exjon/status/813923965299101696   Permalink 7:02 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb There is nothing empirical nor rigorous in use of psychoBS s.a. “Hedgehog/fox” outside of hunting. Kapish? @JackMcMackin Permalink 2:30 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This is almost right. Can do manually with some finessing. @carlfischer101 pic.twitter.com/NeLa2CQNfq Permalink 1:03 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Been getting that kind of BS since FBR “be nice to econs/bankers/journos” Wd being “nice” to the mafia change it?https://twitter.com/JackMcMackin/status/814570913697927168   Permalink 12:51 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb At gym: Asked weightlifters in basement if they voted Trump. 9 voted Trump, 1 Johnson. Upstairs, bourgeois floor (machines), 10/10 Hillary. Permalink 11:56 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I don’t like substance. I leave it to CNN. @FridaGhitis @BibekKafle12 Permalink 11:04 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I have discussed in The Black Swan 2nd ed. how Friedman & similar BS vendors got complexity backward. @BibekKafle12 @FridaGhitis Permalink 11:02 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Full body effort (sq/DL) at your 5 Max Rep (ALL muscles/bones challenged) switch gear via hormones or other. It’s informational. @gzibordi Permalink 11:01 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb While Friedman’s harmful ignorance isn’t curable, lack of jaw/neck definition can be slightly reduced by deadlifts.https://twitter.com/Slate/status/813812798660743168   Permalink 10:51 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Voila what our fearless group suspected is now getting confirmed!https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/814532154680082432   Permalink 10:29 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Was in Akkadian In Latin/Greek near but diff homonyms ≠ meaning In Semitic/Engl near homonyms often synonyms. @DeadLiftCapital @elie2222 Permalink 10:25 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Akkadian: darasu=> to pound. Syriac: both samekh Aramaic: samekh for one,shin other Arabic: both shin @elie2222 pic.twitter.com/nFmcHt8IOF Permalink 10:08 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Ammianus on the Syrian Rebels/ISIS: “People to have neither as friends nor as enemies”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/814457120628371457   Permalink 7:33 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Syrian author Ammianus Marcellinus describes the tribes of (now) East Syria: borders is along today’s Syrian war. pic.twitter.com/1pmIIC4Zey Permalink 5:04 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Convexity effects of rereading pic.twitter.com/t7QT5HIGgW Permalink 4:45 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nfergus More festive joy from the uncrowned king of Twitter: “Inequality and Skin in the Game” by @nntalebhttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.bdw494r5a   Permalink 12:18 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb OK, solved (after some tinkering) @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/UhFkhUNSFk Permalink 5:39 PM – 28 Dec 2016

@joshfattore Markov Chains Explained Visually – This will help with Taleb’s piece. http://setosa.io/ev/markov-chains/   via @vicapow @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/813854886148374529   Permalink 4:40 PM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I challenge Gary Kasparov @Kasparov63 to spend a few days, even minutes, with the rebels. Otherwise he shd learn to keep his mouth shut.https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/813909779148111875   Permalink 8:53 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Wealth is not zero sum, inequality is by definition. @thoreau_devotee Permalink 6:45 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I added to the Inequality piece https://medium.com/@nntaleb/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.vhggmfpff   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qVELokYYji”>  pic.twitter.com/qVELokYYji Permalink 6:24 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Obama allowed bankers to have the LARGEST bonus pool in history, in 2010. Put interest rates at 0 for them.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/813938371550703616   Permalink 5:21 AM – 28 Dec 2016