@nntaleb Bingo! Option traders get it! When probabilities are stochastic, they become ~.50. And they don’t move fast!https://twitter.com/VlanciPictures/status/762036480466415617   Permalink 2:25 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 3) More technically, when the variance of the probability is v. high it converges to 50%. Kapish? (metaprobability). Permalink 2:13 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ So @FiveThirtyEight is showing us a textbook case on how to be totally *clueless* about probability yet make a business in it. Permalink 2:11 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 1/@FiveThirtyEight : 55% “probability” for Trump then 20% 10 d later, not realizing their “probability” is too stochastic to be probability. Permalink 2:09 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Cont “This thing we call religion” https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154031983368375  pic.twitter.com/kvFnQKeYdd Permalink 1:29 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (To hide truth is to hide gold) la vérité est cachee au fond du puits Σιγάν την αλήθειαν χρυσόν εστι θάπτεινhttps://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/761981751656849408   Permalink 11:57 AM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Bon on recommence: Le grand ne rappetisse pas Le petit n’aggrandit pas Permalink 1:05 AM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Infallible way to catch Salafis Jihadists at a checkpoint: ask them to crack a joke.Salafis, by definition, are devoid of any sense of humor Permalink 11:51 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb In French it works well @ArmandDAngour : Le grand ne rappetit pas Le petit n’aggrandit pas Permalink 3:26 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The small will never make you feel great; the great will never make you fee small. ( الزغير ما بكبٌر والكبير ما بزغٌر) Better translation Permalink 3:09 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The small can’t see greatness; the great doesn’t know smallness. ( الزغير ما بكبٌر والكبير ما بزغٌر)https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/761679663001468929   Permalink 3:02 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Ez z’3ir ma bi kabber w l’kbir ma mi za’3’3er. Permalink 2:45 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb To assume that academic economists are “experts” on anything requires total empirical blindness. @yoramdw @JustinWolfers Permalink 8:28 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (Skin in the Game) Permalink 8:23 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb This IYI (Intellectual yet Idiot) doesn’t realize absence of academic economists is a very positive thing.#realworldhttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/761536433756798976   Permalink 8:22 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A pilgrimage to my great-gr-gr-gr-gr-grandfather’s house in Amiounpic.twitter.com/sD9XZkOuYD Permalink 7:01 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Proper statistical causation: Take a cohort of readers & PREVENT some randomly selected from reading. Kapish? @amsterdamtrader @Silva Permalink 5:36 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Rohan, the NYT idiots (IYI) got it backward. Those who live longer necessarily have a longer functioning intellectual/visual ability @Silva Permalink 5:15 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb In distributed environments: Militias >>armies, commandos >>tanks Groups(Hayekian) >>Soviet & farmers >> Monsanto!https://twitter.com/MKM_Abdul/status/761409231304077312   Permalink 3:10 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb As to the Gini, fugedaboudit. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/GINI-1.pdf   @NessimAitKacimi Permalink 3:03 PM – 4 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Piketty more than challenged: in addition his measure of inequality is flawed @NessimAitKacimipic.twitter.com/Kw2yuN09CH Permalink 2:55 PM – 4 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The problem w Mainstream Media: unlike book authors, journos are mostly worried about the opinions of other journos, not those of readers. Permalink 2:20 AM – 4 Aug 2016

@G_Exercitus How can @zerohedge be more professional than MSM? @joshua_landis @MaxAbrahms @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/761079273704665089   Permalink 1:03 AM – 4 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Factdujour: Averroes (IbnRushd) was unpublished in Arabic bef 1859, while 100s of eds in Latin! [The grrrreat Renan]pic.twitter.com/MVyHxN1hXB Permalink 4:37 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb IYI don’t get techné-epistemé: scientist making statements abt practical matters is not like a plumber on plumbing.https://twitter.com/AcademicsSay/status/760969384106029057   Permalink 3:46 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Mala grammatica non vitiat chartam @dottorpax Permalink 3:37 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb If I ran for office, I’d avoid public statements that don’t entail personal risks in making them. Permalink 3:04 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Max knows his stuff.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/760850229029539840   Permalink 10:19 AM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Kadisha Valley near Ehden, 19 km from Amioun (and 20 degrees F cooler).pic.twitter.com/i99s0M4PaC Permalink 7:05 AM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb We don’t know what we talk about when we say “Religion”. Salafis (& most atheists) take religion literally.pic.twitter.com/I1ZhUT3ye6 Permalink 8:26 AM – 2 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Indians left to starve in Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/assaadrazzouk/status/760130259119443968   Permalink 10:26 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2) So have some imagination and do not rule out a two-way mess in Europe.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/760139675713634304   Permalink 8:48 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@nntaleb As a child,I never imagined that Sunni girls wd trade miniskirts for hijab & boys would blow themselves up to get on GoogleNews. #BlackSwan Permalink 8:46 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@lukasnaugle “You can’t have 1) voting rights, 2) social media, and 3) patronizing elite at once…” @nntaleb Permalink 5:22 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@nntaleb My prediction, particularly for Europe. Eventually, violence never stays 1-way. (@zerohedge )pic.twitter.com/ELbVMmQrIb Permalink 6:36 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Finally, results for the preasymptotics of semi-fat tailed & fat tailed distributions for @DrCirillo’s conferencepic.twitter.com/b7POA4952o Permalink 4:39 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Enough mass to do a …coup in Germany?https://twitter.com/MilenaRodban/status/759879379220475904   Permalink 3:48 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@joshua_landis As the Saudis Covered Up Abuses in Yemen, America Stood Byhttp://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/saudi-arabia-yemen-russia-syria-foreign-policy-united-nations-blackmail-214124   Permalink 12:58 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Localismhttps://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/759779327428923392   Permalink 12:11 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@ideallyspace @nntalebpic.twitter.com/ISqpg2kgN6 Permalink 3:43 AM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Right wants one $ one vote. The IYI (intellectual yet idiot) Left wants one degree one vote. The rest of us want one person one vote. Permalink 1:46 PM – 30 Jul 2016