Tag Archives: INCERTO

Genealogy of the Ideas in The Black Swan

blackSwanGenealogy20150103

Making clear the genealogy of the ideas in The Black Swan (and the INCERTO) and earlier research, philosophical and mathematical traditions: for instance, there is NO link between the philosophical idea of skepticism and the mathematics of fat tails (or even the concept of fat tails as seen in consequence space).Because of lack of erudition (typical of economists), and an overriding desire to simplify, some say about the INCERTO “nothing new, Hume did that” (not only wrong, but Hume was rephrasing Bayle’s ideas), other imbeciles say this is just “Mandelbrot” (not realizing fat tails originate with Pareto and Mandelbrot was “gray swans” not black ones), others attribute the idea to “Frank Knight” (who missed both fat tails and skeptical philosophy), others “Kahneman-Tversky” (limited, according to Daniel Kahneman to thin tails), etc. This chart makes it clear. Incidentally people who know little tend to make statements overestimating similarities and eradicating differentiation: “Tolstoy? Nothing special. Just a novel in Russian. Dostoevsky did that”.For comments as there may be connections to improve.
http://fooledbyrandomness.com/genealogy.jpg

via Timeline Photos – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

To clarify (once again), the central idea of the INCERTO is…

To clarify (once again), the central idea of the INCERTO is: be as skeptical as possible about your knowledge of the world, and as certain as possible about what constitutes wise action, whattodoaboudit.

So embedded in the idea is that (positive) knowledge about the world is incomplete, transitory, continuously revised, but wisdom (what to do about knowledge) doesn’t change.

via To clarify (once again), the central idea of the… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

The most rewarding moment in an author’s career….

The most rewarding moment in an author’s career. Finally, I am no longer the author of several books. I am now the author of a single book in 4 volumes: INCERTO, plus technical companions. Why does it matter? I don’t know, but it is a big, very big deal to see your work as a single large coherent and self contained unit, to which you keep adding pieces to, ultimately, leave very few stones unturned.

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http://www.amazon.com/Antifragile-Things-That-Disorder-Incerto/dp/0812979680/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top

Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world. Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them……

via The most rewarding moment in an author’s career…. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Do not socialize with people much richer than you; but if you do…

Do not socialize with people much richer than you; but if you do, do it in your own territory (restaurants you can afford, wine, etc.)

(As the tribe might have noticed, I am adding a list of 99 prescriptive heuristics, with rationalization, as a short standalone addition to the INCERTO).

via Do not socialize with people much richer than… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.