Friends, the final revision of my rebuttal of the idea that *small probabilities are expensive* (Ilmanen’s paper) is about to be submitted to FAJ (where his paper was published). I link it to the general error, a methological blindess to fat tails, I now call “Pinker empiricism”.

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/Ilmanen.pdf

Comments on the first part is welcome as the editors need the paper by Monday. Thanks in advance.

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