Tag Archives: GMOs

Stewart Brand, Stony Brook, Arnold Kling, Zika, GMOs, Mean Deviation, Ahiqar, Fat Tony, The Next Subprime

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@nntaleb GMO: @stewartbrand & @mark_lynas are sub-clueless about risk, science… Our latest @mosicr https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Precautionary%20Principle%20Papers.pdf  pic.twitter.com/qUIvEc2RJD Permalink 6:19 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “With animals you make up quality w/quantity; a good human is superior to a thousand” @GhassanDahhan #minorityrulepic.twitter.com/8C0QmlV1hs Permalink 6:11 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb – “Mr T., can you read an Arabic text from the 11th C? – Yes – Didn’t Arabic change? – Alas, not in 14 C, and that’s exactly the problem. Permalink 5:25 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Gardner boy, show antecedent to convexity argument vs fragile. If you can. Bitter envious idiot @dgardner Permalink 4:45 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms Hillary still insists regime change in Libya was a good idea even though Libyans disagree & ISIS now thrives there: http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/14/hillary-clinton-has-no-regrets-about-libya/?platform=hootsuite  . Permalink 3:08 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Is it me or is there something surreal abt an economist on public welfare lecturing independent people about how to invest? #skininthegame Permalink 1:52 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I am not saying tweets should not have *illustrations* for stimulation, they do not need a *proof* if there is one. Kapish? @longitude0 Permalink 1:47 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If you add a picture in a tweet to back-up your assertion, you will sound less convincing. The place for backups are endnotes not tweets. Permalink 1:35 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Preparing Real World Risk Workshop part II in Stony Brook. This is the comparison with RWRI http://realworldrisk.com  pic.twitter.com/3d8GojmRY5 Permalink 11:53 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb So when a GMO promoting “science” journalist refers to a paper that uses P-values, show him this [Section IV] https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf   Permalink 10:43 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Looks like Arnold Kling is rephrasing #Antifragile. The copycat deserves some scrutiny.https://twitter.com/paulg/status/720625255811645440   Permalink 8:24 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A very solid paper by Yaneer et al on other possible causes of Zika, with the usual suspect: insecticide.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/720632525463404544   Permalink 8:21 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb GLOBALIZATION: Ricardo’s Comp Adv is flawed mathematically when variability is added. Put SOME rigor into economics!pic.twitter.com/tTKg2etfjH Permalink 7:54 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 3 Lobbyists 4 Bureaucrats in DC/Brusselshttps://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/720615827544875009   Permalink 7:17 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If the IMF had a randomly selected horse in place of Lagarde the place would have been more realistic.https://twitter.com/ghchammas/status/720462165354917889   Permalink 5:04 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@BryanAppleyard ‘imbecility of an order that has few historical parallels’ John Gray on the West’s Middle East policy http://tinyurl.com/z5epfe2   Permalink 4:13 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@WeAreLebanon Good morning from #Bazal, north #Lebanon By Ibrahim Anouti #WeAreLebanonpic.twitter.com/kTCNARNr2S Permalink 12:33 AM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Bye bye GMOs. A technnology that doesn’t grow is effectively dead. Acreage for GM Crops Declined in 2015http://nyti.ms/23tkPHi   Permalink 1:03 PM – 13 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms When pondering regime change, a key question is whether the regime’s replacement will be better — not whether the current regime is good. Permalink 5:19 AM – 13 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This is not in jest: I’ve seen some in North Syria. Permalink 3:13 AM – 13 Apr 2016

@nntaleb There are people in the Levant with 6 fingers.https://twitter.com/conflictantiq/status/720114626625671169   Permalink 3:08 AM – 13 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nero di seppia. Infine.pic.twitter.com/sMseHkJcw1 Permalink 5:06 PM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Make the GMO imbecile read this as well https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/715862574059937793   @Ernestocordo @randal_olson Permalink 1:25 PM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Economics has been even more wrong for much longer.https://twitter.com/VonNeumann5/status/719911166810722304   Permalink 8:53 AM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Cont: we tracked econ PhDs who went into trading and found only 2 out of 87 survived. Firms like Renaissance never hire economists. Permalink 6:36 AM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Explanation: events & price reaction to events are as Fat Tony says “different tings”. How Fat Tony got rich (& fat)pic.twitter.com/esPtv48lhF Permalink 5:38 AM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I conjecture that if you gave an investor the next day’s news 24 h in advance he would go bust in less than a year. Permalink 6:21 PM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Silent Risk proof of why Mean deviation better than Standard Deviation @WAWilsonIVpic.twitter.com/4DP7YjYTWs Permalink 3:34 PM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A theorem about ruin problems by the Maestro Marco Avellaneda originating from a twitter thread!https://twitter.com/MAvellaneda55/status/719592339380006914   Permalink 11:28 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Which illustrates the wiki entry for Norm L-3 for a Wiener process ||W|| @MAvellaneda55 @normonicspic.twitter.com/RVjAOUX78x Permalink 8:09 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A Brownian motion that never hits ruin at zero Bessel 3 function. @MAvellaneda55 @normonicspic.twitter.com/p2y5vDBELs Permalink 8:04 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary of statistical errors in @sapinker & goons is out (ungated) http://fooledbyrandomness.com/significance.pdf   http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2016.00903.x/abstract  pic.twitter.com/WqQTTGd7FH Permalink 5:04 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@menleben pic.twitter.com/9TuPchZHa1 Permalink 5:10 PM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2- You learn from trading that those who blow you up look “measured” a la Hillary not the wild animals a la Donaldo @Codetie @EconTalker Permalink 2:41 PM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1-Never be fooled by the superficial. The most interventionist/dangerous US prez has been the smooth behaving GWB!https://twitter.com/codetie/status/719270808577818624   Permalink 2:39 PM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Calling out BS is a social obligation for all of us.https://twitter.com/dfsalbatross/status/719146550216118274   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The typical misrepresentation of my work: all members of the Smith family are tall != all tall pple are Smith familyhttps://twitter.com/jilm/status/719147265982603268   Permalink 9:32 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Papers claiming “overestimation” of tail risk assume agent makes 1 decision per lifetime !!! https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  pic.twitter.com/sa45xOWydm Permalink 6:54 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A scenic beach, if easy to reach, will be soon jam-packed; ideas & investments, if both obvious & easy to execute, will soon be overcrowded. Permalink 5:34 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Look at how Monsanto PR firms create fake accounts with female names to harass/defame @RachelsNews, a teenager: https://twitter.com/DanteExMachina/followers   Permalink 5:19 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Ahiqar was of the origin of Aesop’s fables. In history, origin is the upper,not lower bound. http://www.syriacstudies.com/2014/02/06/the-words-of-ahiqar-aramaic-proverbs-and-precepts/   http://www.kathimerini.gr/346660/article/politismos/arxeio-politismoy/h-dihghsh-toy-axikar-apo-th-mesopotamia   Permalink 4:44 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If the rich eats a snake, they think it’s for its properties; if the poor does it: for his hunger. Wisdom of Ahiqarpic.twitter.com/TZ7tTsMJl6 Permalink 3:25 PM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Peer review” in psychology & decision theory doesn’t count. The peer review should be done by 1) physicists. 2) time. (worst of 2). Permalink 10:19 AM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Added a section on “no we don’t use logarithms for utility theory!”. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  pic.twitter.com/rfabeGp3Ij Permalink 9:39 AM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The point of #Antifragile that distributing small mistakes vs top-down mistake concentration =>thintails vs fattailshttps://twitter.com/BrianNosek/status/718812302141714433   Permalink 7:58 AM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Social networks are now forcing companies to become moral; life today is rebecoming transparent (#Lindyeffect)https://twitter.com/FPAction/status/718450334511734786   Permalink 5:27 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Is Fat Tony a real or fictitious character? Permalink 4:59 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Never cross a river if it is on average 4 feet deep.” (1996, Dynamic Hedging)https://twitter.com/Tubbyturkey/status/718581172817645568   Permalink 4:30 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Proves that an econ or psych. PhD makes you know less abt RISK than someone illiterate: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  pic.twitter.com/Xg3qjxrGB7 Permalink 2:41 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I know something about Ketchum prying into my own affairs. However low IQ & espionage aren’t a good combination.https://twitter.com/diegocreimer/status/718425193018953728   Permalink 12:06 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Where we show fallacies committed by such bullshit vendors as Cass Sunstein in the name of “rationality”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/718456742141673472   Permalink 8:21 AM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Mathematical Foundations of the Precautionary Principle, (draft with mistakes) https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  pic.twitter.com/GrL6rritKD Permalink 8:13 AM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb They look like my weighlifting friends.https://twitter.com/andybolton1008/status/718347509328920576   Permalink 3:19 AM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Any self-owned, independent person, #doesnthidehisflaws #sayitthewayitis, when public, could be called “a narcissistic bully”. @EconTalker Permalink 6:06 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@ttmygh …and you wonder why people are voting for @realDonaldTrump The hypocrisy of the political class is breathtakingpic.twitter.com/vo72UebMhe Permalink 5:01 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The next subprime.https://twitter.com/amusechimp/status/718218640911425537   Permalink 5:11 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What every risk taker knows but academics in decision theory/econ don’t: space&time probabilities are NOT the same.pic.twitter.com/RvFdeodOQU Permalink 3:09 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb An economist just said “Humans are not perfect machines”. But machines are not perfect machines. Permalink 11:26 AM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If you do not like aphorisms, do *not* buy books of aphorism. Kapish? http://www.amazon.com/The-Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical/dp/1400069971/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_product_top?ie=UTF8  pic.twitter.com/xPImSSnQAI Permalink 5:20 AM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We are doing very well with our uberization of training http://www.realworldrisk.com   , as in classical times. @JonHaidt @aminterest Permalink 4:44 AM – 7 Apr 2016

GMO Alarmist Nassim Taleb Backs Out of Debate. I Refute Him Anyway | Reason.com

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https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/700813395612676096

Biotech Crops and the Alleged Risk of Human Extinction

Taleb and his colleagues want to impose their supposedly non-naive version of the precautionary principle to forestall activities when “consequences can involve total irreversible ruin, such as the extinction of human beings or all life on the planet.” And GMOs, they feel, could result in “irreversible environmental and health damage” or cause “an irreversible termination of life at some scale, which could be planetwide.” Biotech crops, they claim, pose a systemic risk of global ecocide.

It is a trivially true statement that if some activity will eventually lead to total ruin, then total ruin, even if it takes a long time, will eventually follow that activity. Taleb and his colleagues just assume that producing and growing modern biotech crops is such an activity, then trivially predict a GMO apocalypse. There is a lot of hand-waving about the dangers of global connectivity and dose response relationships that may be relevant to the workings of financial markets, but they provide no justification for their assumption of biotech disaster. Unwarranted dire assumptions in; unjustified devastating consequences out.

Source: GMO Alarmist Nassim Taleb Backs Out of Debate. I Refute Him Anyway. – Reason.com
HatTip Dave Lull

Fat Tony, BS Vendors, Class Warfare, Cronyism, Dakhilak, Peter Frankopan, GMOs | Twitter

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@nntaleb Fat Tony, how can I be less unsuccesful?
-have no prsonl assstnt/sectry
-But then I can’t schedule meetings, answer mail
-That’s the point. Permalink 6:51 PM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb No worries: the courage & military prowess of the prediabetic pple of SaudiBarbaria limits to terrorism: just unarmed civilians as in Sept11 Permalink 5:49 PM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb My London talk discussing the social science statistical “toolkit” pic.twitter.com/TOgxeu8HfD Permalink 5:44 PM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Is this a death threat? @time24art Permalink 5:24 PM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The “best brains” among BSVendors are still BSVendors. https://twitter.com/BNCommodities/status/698998958186766341   Permalink 4:54 PM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Changed the title once again:
Skin In the Game: The Thrills and Logic of Risk Taking
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SITG.html   Permalink 4:51 PM – 14 Feb 2016

@GreekAnalyst Next time you hear someone talk about “class warfare”, show them this. pic.twitter.com/NF8a9httMA Permalink 12:04 PM – 14 Feb 2016

@edsanin “An economist is a mixture of 1) a businessman w/o common sense, 2) a physicist w/o brain & 3) a speculator without balls”- @nntaleb Genius Permalink 8:23 AM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb I love statistical rigor more than I hate Monsanto.
—
Investigate before spreading conspiracies. @AdrienClavel Permalink 7:56 AM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Central delusion: classic liberals who tolerate large corporations but not big government; nonclassicliberals who make the opposite mistake. Permalink 7:53 AM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Reminds me of an argument by the imbecile Pat Buchanan that “smoking bans are costing jobs” @DavidBCollum Permalink 7:47 AM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Hillary Clinton Monsanto-Malmaison represents shoddy cronyism: How to game the political system to get rich. http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/01/30/clinton-system-donor-machine-2016-election/   Permalink 6:14 AM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb I did it vertically for space. @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 12:38 PM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Speculative Aramaic Philology: Root of Lev. & Ar. 3olm علم (knowledge) is Aramaic “strength”, => 3alma young woman. pic.twitter.com/WjoGAU3j6p Permalink 11:52 AM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Speculative philology of the day: Dakhilak (“I implore you”) in Levantine comes from Western Aramaic (Takhl, takhlak) Permalink 10:12 AM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Michael Spagat makes egregious errors of significance in a journal called “Significance”, (in comments on Pinker) pic.twitter.com/VvXsdL5rt6 Permalink 9:50 AM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb This is the kind of BS charlatans use to sell their products, with “appeal” to “harming the poor”. Charlatan! https://twitter.com/wrmead/status/698552289053650944   Permalink 9:27 AM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb U.S. readers, have you pre-ordered 2 copies of @peterfrankopan’s book, out Tuesday? You need 2 in case you lose one.
http://www.amazon.com/Silk-Roads-New-History-World/dp/1101946326/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1455381152&sr=8-1&keywords=frankopan   Permalink 8:34 AM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb A reminder that the last main external battle won by people from what is now Saudi Arabia is Yarmuk in 636 AD. https://twitter.com/Independent/status/698432890091282432   Permalink 6:30 AM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Speculative philology du jour:”sahra” in Levantine (night conv)<=Aramaic “sahr” from “moon”:Cannanite סַ֫הַר=”round” pic.twitter.com/MOLVomVICO Permalink 5:47 AM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb As much as I despise Monsanto, it is not a good idea to start accusing immediately w/o deeper statistical scrutiny. https://twitter.com/food_democracy/status/698234383082328068   Permalink 12:06 PM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb I mean “deemed” rather than “defined”. Permalink 9:10 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Slides for lecture on Logic of Risk Taking
Best definition of rationality: what Cass Sunstein defines as irrational pic.twitter.com/9aOrKpqYGa Permalink 9:08 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb You can soon expect some message that it is “unscientific” to worry about the link involving a Monsanto product.
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/698149294759612416   Permalink 7:14 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb All theories are to be deemed conspiracy theories … until Monsanto fights it with shills on social media. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/698149294759612416   Permalink 7:03 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Something to investigate https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/698149294759612416   Permalink 6:46 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The imbecile should FIRST provide or conduct a proper risk analysis, THEN complain. #BSVending https://twitter.com/dbkell/status/698128664618209280   Permalink 5:37 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The Precautionary Principle page has more details
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 4:51 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb A reminder that the “science” behind GMOs is largely P.R., no proper risk studies ever done. pic.twitter.com/FFmEobBET9 Permalink 4:25 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Precisely the problem that debt is building and at low rates. If govts need to refinance…. Fragile! @jweinryt @econbuttonwood Permalink 4:22 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@econbuttonwood Deleveraging? What deleveraging? Chart from Manoj Pradhan at Morgan Stanley pic.twitter.com/rws8vQboIU Permalink 1:46 AM – 12 Feb 2016

BS Vendors, Dostoyevsky, Auguste Comte, Nobel Foundation, Bill Gates, GMOs, Penrose – The Road To Reality,

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nntaleb
Typical initial resistance on the part of Israel/Iran in realizing they will end up fighting on the same side. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/692701879801888768
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692705220145512448
5:46 AM – 28 Jan 2016

nntaleb
7) Saw in a flash why to get “honest” function for fattailed CDF you needed alpha exponent in N but not Fourier tr https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cauchy_distribution
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692650762514493440
2:09 AM – 28 Jan 2016

nntaleb
My explanation of the flaw of “averaging” under nonlinear responses and why much of psychology doesn’t generalize.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/average.pdf
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692641102952681472
1:31 AM – 28 Jan 2016

nntaleb
2/2 The problem is deeper than local averaging: The response by Dawkins clique to Nowak’s math was journalistic. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/nov/07/richard-dawkins-labelled-journalist-by-eo-wilson
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692640422984716288
1:28 AM – 28 Jan 2016

nntaleb
The “Selfish Gene” has been debunked by Wilson/Nowak, & Bar Yam. Links to “averaging” in complex syst #Antifragile https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/692552661598601216
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692634919672029184
1:06 AM – 28 Jan 2016

nntaleb
I meant #skininthegame only learn from those who do what they teach. Ignore others @jsqfunk
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692510656285839360
4:53 PM – 27 Jan 2016

nntaleb
6b)Penrose made me finally get why I fail to “invent” a powerlaw in R without “patches”.Shd focus on Complex:Fourier
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/inventproba.pdf
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692509349831430144
4:47 PM – 27 Jan 2016

nntaleb
6a) His discussion of Euler proper “smooth” function in Re domain vs analyticity in complex=>why no real function on R for fattailed distr
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692508259706654720
4:43 PM – 27 Jan 2016

nntaleb
To learn, learn from those who do it.
https://twitter.com/andybolton1008/status/692472823101677570
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692487377961500672
3:20 PM – 27 Jan 2016

nntaleb
5) He ties together stuff that we never put together. Sometimes just a hint leads to a flash. What is natural/rational number before quarks?
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692433850534891520
11:47 AM – 27 Jan 2016

nntaleb
4) Just reread first 7 chapters on plane to India.
+discovery of math techniques (complex analysis, Log) led to uncovering of the physical
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692433229270405120
11:45 AM – 27 Jan 2016

nntaleb
best quote re Davos @nntaleb “The opposite of success isn’t failure; it is name dropping.”Going to needlepoint it. https://twitter.com/TheMediaTweets/status/691990013601566721
http://www.twitter.com/duffynyc/status/692403911165132803
9:48 AM – 27 Jan 2016

nntaleb
.@kennethminoo The idea is the inverse problem. Imagine yourself having to produce the math that explains reality, no less no more.
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692140970683584512
4:24 PM – 26 Jan 2016

nntaleb
The English approach math a la Newton: less formalisn more coherence @OussamaENNAFII
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692136440877191168
4:06 PM – 26 Jan 2016

nntaleb
3) TRTR shows the exact interplay between math and physical reality. It works like magic. Think of complex analysis=>quantum` probability!!!
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692128164529750017
3:33 PM – 26 Jan 2016

nntaleb
2) Before TRTR viewed the world into: Von Neumann vs Feynman. For VN, a physical was a term in equation. For RF, math could be masturbation.
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692127702153826304
3:31 PM – 26 Jan 2016

nntaleb
1) Penrose’s TRTR convinced me that it takes 10 years to properly real a real book.
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692126825372344320
3:27 PM – 26 Jan 2016

nntaleb
Friends, Let’s start a twitter symposium on Penrose’s monumental TRTR (after 10y of reading it). #lindyeffect
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/691965449815326720
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692121975788081159
3:08 PM – 26 Jan 2016

nntaleb
Someone needs to (gently & patiently) explain to Bill Gates that in real life you can’t reboot to solve a crash. https://twitter.com/GMOInside/status/691563805940256768
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/692120293452677124
3:01 PM – 26 Jan 2016

nntaleb
Syllabus of my course at NYU-Tandon @nyupoly: 7 Introductory lectures on Extreme Risk Analytics. pic.twitter.com/NBpX8JRfEu
http://www.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/691996457730183168
6:49 AM – 26 Jan 2016

It is a myth that markets are there for the discovery of “the” price.(Facebook)  Markets are there so we can keep changing opinion about the price.
——
In addition, for those who believe in the “wisdom of crowds”, looks like the idea is debunked by the minority rule.

http://fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf

Every century brings the fool (Facebook) who declares that “violence is steadily declining” and that we live in “unparalleled” period of peace (40 years without conflict). And, needless to say, attributes it to some type of progress. This was from H.T. Buckle circa 1857. I was shocked to find Pinker’s words… verbatim. It was not just Pinker’s reasoning, but his words.

The great F. Dostoyevsky debunked it in “Notes from an underground” (enclosed).

A common theme of “positivist-rationalists-scientistic” (that is, promoters of scientism) to believe in “end of”, new man, new society, new something, etc. Just as the “new atheists” believe that if we remove religion and replaced with something they mislabel as “science”, things wouldn’t blow up the planet. Now, looking for some quotes from Auguste Comte who, thanks to his magisterial multi-volume project, “Cours de Philosophy Positive” gave respectability to this turkey problem.
—–
Notes:
1) Dostoyevsky, as an author, had skin in the game. He faced his own execution: he was condemned to death penalty, faced the execution squad, and was reprieved last minute. See in The Idiot the discussion of how a man faces what he think is his last hours of life, promising himself to enjoy every minute of like in the same manner if case he miraculously survives… and forgetting it upon the miraculous survival. Much more on him, later.

2) The Nobel Foundation gave me a fellowhip to go study the statistical properties of violence in Oslo. So I will get deeper into this turkey problem and its sucker narrative.

3) Thanking Daniel Obloja.

When people get rich (Facebook), they lose control of their preferences, substituting constructed preferences to their own, triggering their own misery. And these are the preferences of those who want to sell them something (a skin-in-the-game problem as their choices are dictated by others who have something to gain, and no side effects, from the sale).

I’ve mentioned here the following anecdote. I once had dinner in a Michelin-starred restaurant with a fellow who insisted on eating there instead of my selection of a casual Greek place. People in the restaurant were of the very constipated style, that kind of atmosphere. Dinner consisted in a succession of complicated small things. It felt like work. I left the place starving. Now if I had a choice I would have had some time-tested recipe (say a pizza with fresh ingredients, or a juicy hamburger) in a lively place –for a tenth of the price. But because the fellow could afford the expensive restaurant, we ended up the victims of some complicated experiments by a chef judged by some Michelin bureaucrat (one that would fail the Lindy effect, instead of eating some minute local variation around a progress through Sicilian grandmothers).

(Footnote: Hamburgers are tastier than filet mignon, because of the higher fat content, but people have been convinced that the latter is better because it is more expensive to produce).

The same with real estate. Most people, I am convinced, are happier in close quarters, in a real barrio-style neighborhood, where they can feel human warmth, but when they have big bucks they end up pressured to move into a humongous impersonal and silent mansions, far away from the neighbors. Not counting the fact that their house will be professionally managed like a corporation.

I am saying this because, with the passage of time, I am more and more convinced that very few people understand their own choices, and end up being manipulated by those who want to sell them something. Looking at Saudi Arabia which should progressively revert to the pre-oil level of poverty, I wonder if taking away some things from them will make them better off.

A part man-part animal (Facebook) is vastly more horrifying than a full wild animal. Extremely eerie are monsters who look like humans with small differences.

The uncanny resides in the resemblance, not the difference.

So I finally figured out why I am gripped with so much revulsion at BS vendors dressed in the garb of high priest of scientists, intellectuals, or logicians, (say Pinker or Shermer or Harris or some scientist under Monsanto’s control), to the point of total maddening anger, and why I do not experience any disgust when I see a fortune teller, a market commentator, or some new age meditation guru such as Deepak Chopra.

FRIDAY QUIZ.(Facebook)
“People of high intelligence are ethical. We find fewer intelligent people among criminals.”
Spot the nonsense in the sentence.

When I was a quant-trader (Facebook), my trading colleagues talked about books, ideas, and quants talked about probability and mathematics. Now that I am in the “ideas” profession, my academic colleagues discuss office space, and my writing colleagues talk about book agents, speakers bureaus and copyrights. Professional mathematicians talk about grants and amateur ones about Godel.

Fortune Cookie Science, SITG, Richard Dawkins, 2016, Squid Ink, Minority Rule

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FORTUNE-COOKIE SCIENCE (Facebook), definition: an understanding of science, probability & rationality obtained via slogans of the type found in Chinese restaurants’ fortune cookies, particularly easy to spread on the web.

The other night at a party. (Facebook)
“How do your books differ from those of [X]?”.
Me: “I don’t know I don’t often read contemporary authors, and odds are I will never read “X”.
She: “But you are writing books for an audience, no? You are responsible to tell the audience how you compare to others.”
Me: “Do you have a boyfriend?”
She: “Yes, he is here.”
Me: “Did you ask him how he compares in bed to other men at the party or is it something you found out by yourself?”

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/683440614160076800

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/683387772120510464

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Thanks for the symposium on risks. (Facebook)  The article came out in the WSJ. But I wasn’t aware of company: almost fainted.

Anyway wrote only 2 Op-Eds in 2015: NYT and WSJ. The rule is to stay below 3.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Real Financial Risks of 2016

 

Last email from 2015. (Facebook)  Our paper debunking Pinker’s thesis was accepted by a stat journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Applications.

Science Wins! In the months that it took us to publish this our paper was under the scrutiny of professional probabilists and statisticians who deal with Extreme Events, whose comments we collected and incorporated while Pinker and his goons were active in the press, on blogs and social media spreading stawman-clueless commentary.

Happy Science. Happy 2016!

PS- More generally I have to describe the “Pinker fallacy” under fat tails. His claim is sort of, to put it in statistical or scientific terms: “Violence has dropped by .00001 standard deviations. Let us explain WHY.”
PPS- Confirms my idea that, in science, a single comment by a mathematician can outweigh those by a billion BS vendors.

Our paper is here:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1505.04722.pdf

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