Tag Archives: fat tony

The only noteworthy correction I made in the 1900 pages of the INCERTO

The only noteworthy correction I made in the 1900 pages of the INCERTO, written over 18 years, which should come out as single unit:
“To Benoit Mandelbrot, a Greek among Romans” [The Black Swan, 2007]
to
“To Benoit Mandelbrot, a Roman among Greeks”

As I came to realize that the Romans were noBS FatTonies; they resented grand theories and favored prudent and progressive tinkering. Much of what they built, from constitution, to Roman law, to bridges, to low income housing, to their literature, to their imperial administration (still around in the structure of the Catholic church), have survived 2000 years.

Nothing else of substance was changed.

via: Facebook

The Lebanese Method | The Majalla Magazine

Taleb argues that we are built to be fooled by theories. He says, “Theories come and go, experience stays.” Fat Tony trusts experience and, in one anecdote, becomes rich in 1991 when he bets against the experts who believe the price of oil will rise with the first Gulf War. The theory is that a war causes hoarding and bottlenecks yet, as Tony notes, the date of the war was known so far in advance that too much oil had been hoarded. Tony is beholden to no theories. He simply looked at the figures, saw there were more barrels of oil than the world needed, and bet on the price falling, which is exactly what happened.

via The Lebanese Method | The Majalla Magazine.

I’ve started my “book tour” misery until Dec 12…

Friends, once again, gratitude for the help I got on this site. I’ve started my “book tour” misery until Dec 12, with jet lag, interviews, etc.Here are simple tricks to prevent bureaucrats, academics, bonus earners and other frauds from scamming the general public.

FROM FAT TAILS TO FAT TONY
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ECONOMIST2013.pdf

via Nassim Nicholas Taleb.