Tag Archives: fat tails

Something people don’t realize about fat-tailed probabilities…

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Something people don’t realize about fat-tailed probabilities: We may accept to take risks with .00001 pct chance of blowing up the planet. May be OK for some. But the inconsistency is that we do serially and collectively take A LOT of “one-off” risk. If nothing happens, we may do it again. And again. Or we may take many of these at the same time. Merely allowing such action will eventually mean that we will have 100% chance of blowing up the planet.

Recall the principle, by Kolmogorov’s zero-one law, that eventually if you have a small chance of blowing up you end up blowing up with CERTAINTY; the planet has never blown up (in trillions of trillions of bounded variations over billions of years) precisely because it took close to ZERO risks of blowing up. Nothing beyond local variations.

This seriality is something to add to the precautionary principle. Some risks we should NEVER take.

via Something people don’t realize about… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

Friends, thanks to the requests, here is the first in a mini-tutorial series. Subject: Fat Tails.

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Friends, thanks to the requests, here is the first in a mini-tutorial series. Subject: Fat Tails.
corrected video version http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s45E8_jkyJc&feature=youtu.be
Mini Tutorial 1, Fat Tails Simplified in 8 1/2 minutes
A quick tutorial introducing the idea of Fat Tails in about 8 minutes, as simply as possible. Fat Tails make us understand the world much less than we think.

via Friends, thanks to the requests, here is… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

The central argument of The Black Swan was understood by…

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The central argument of The Black Swan was understood by:
100% of firemen
99.9% of skin-in-the-game risk-takers and businesspersons
85% of common readers about > 3 million copies
80% of hard scientists except those doing econonophysics, s.a. Sornette, etc. and complexity artists
65% of psychologists except Harvard psychologists
60% of traders
25% of U.K. journalists
12.1% of money managers who manage money of others
1.5% of “Risk professionals”
1% of U.S. journalistsand
0% of economists or perhaps, to be fair, .0001%
Which is why I had to write this. Vol 1 is near complete. 140 pages!
Fat Tails and AntiFragility http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html

via The central argument of The Black Swan… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

Friends, here is: my new text. Volume 1…

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Friends, here is: my new text. Volume 1 covers the ideas of The Black Swan expressed mathematically.

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html
(added derivations of skin-in-the-game, etc.)

How can one correct academic fraud? Not only have economics professors not addressed the substance of my points accusing them of misusing statistical methods, remember these frauds are still using risk methods that got us here, but they are countering with a smear campaign spreading all manner of erroneous personal & academic information … anonymously, or so they think. As I said there is a reason to be academic: lack of courage of voicing one’s opinion, so one can bust them directly through subpoena or just pay $18K to have a list of their names. Nothing is anonymous on the web.

via Friends, here is: my new text. Volume 1… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.