@nntaleb I speculate that no gym machine can raise one’s BPM (beats per minute) more than sprinting outside, particularly uphill. True? Permalink 6:31 AM – 18 Apr 2017
@NonMeek .@nntaleb My humble attempt of conveying the concepts “iatrogenics” and “negative convexity effect” from #Antifragile in one strip. pic.twitter.com/hBXeESTlvI Permalink 10:40 AM – 17 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Today, The Black Swan turns 10 years old. (Fooled by Randomness is ~16 y.o., Procrustes ~7, and Antifragile ~5) Permalink 9:11 AM – 17 Apr 2017
@MaxAbrahms Trump only cares about Sunni, not Shiite children (I’d expand that claim beyond Trump to most media & think tanks).http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-suicide-attack-refugee-buses-trump-only-cares-sunni-children-a7687066.html Permalink 5:44 AM – 17 Apr 2017
@nntaleb We need to help CNN go out of business. I involuntarily get their propaganda in lounges as they blast the #fakenewshttps://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2 Permalink 5:36 PM – 16 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Was this week in 4 airline lounges” Warsaw, Vienna, Minsk, NY. ALL were blasting CNN How do we get airport lounges to stop having #fakenews?https://twitter.com/dancohen3000/status/853352680336523265 Permalink 5:27 PM – 16 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Rule I’ve learned today. After 47 vegan days (with v. few exceptions), do not overeat fatty lamb. Permalink 5:15 PM – 16 Apr 2017
@JulianAssange After the massacre of shiite refugee families in Syria yesterday let’s recall the Western media’s original CIA backed “moderate rebel” pic.twitter.com/K8ZiF1Fjmn Permalink 3:53 PM – 16 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Lamb after 47 days pic.twitter.com/JW7FzETLqA Permalink 12:14 PM – 16 Apr 2017
@nntaleb #LindyEffecthttps://twitter.com/litteracarolina/status/852950922196131841 Permalink 8:28 AM – 16 Apr 2017
@MaxAbrahms Do a thought experiment: Imagine how much more & intense media coverage would be if Assad had massacred all those civilians yesterday. Permalink 6:13 AM – 16 Apr 2017
@MaxAbrahms That’s totally nuts if you’ve at all been following the media coverage disparity. Shia lives simply don’t matter.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/853450526834511872 Permalink 8:33 PM – 15 Apr 2017
@since33 Christ is Risen! Khristós Anésti! Hristos voskrese! لمسيح قام! حقا قام! ܫܪܝܪܐܝܬ ܩܡ! Photo: Holy Sepulchre #Easter pic.twitter.com/AbZ8NaYXM7 Permalink 12:12 PM – 15 Apr 2017
@nntaleb “Intellectual elite”= people selected ability to get: 1 statics, not dynamics 2 actions, not interactions 3 low, not high dimensionality. Permalink 11:34 AM – 15 Apr 2017
@nntaleb The main result of “improvement” by US regime changists (Obama/Hillary) & backing rebels is depletion of original Christians in Syria.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/853285539981787137 Permalink 10:31 AM – 15 Apr 2017
@nntaleb IYIs are good at “removing” w/o grasping 2nd step/complex systems Removing “dictators” & replacing w… Removing “religion” & replacing w…https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/853292130252582912 Permalink 10:29 AM – 15 Apr 2017
@BrankoMilan This is a good news!https://twitter.com/DeanBaker13/status/853295617787006976 Permalink 10:20 AM – 15 Apr 2017
@thogge Very good. as you elude to, nothing angered Jesus more than virtue-signaling empty-sepulcher Pharisees. saved his toughest rebukes for them Permalink 8:58 AM – 15 Apr 2017
@nntaleb You cannot truly celebrate Easter if you didn’t pay a price for it: lent & fasting.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/no-worship-without-skin-in-the-game-70b4aa341092 Permalink 5:02 AM – 15 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Borin Johnson has all the shortcomings attributed to Trump by his detractors & none of the qualities assumed by his followers. Permalink 3:59 AM – 15 Apr 2017
@sahouraxo Hundreds of Syrian Christians attended their very first #GoodFriday mass in #Aleppo’s St. Elijah Cathedral in nearly five years. #Syria pic.twitter.com/wVkYT1WysE Permalink 5:18 PM – 14 Apr 2017
@NonMeek .@nntaleb #Antifragile’s chapter 21 provides the framework for today’s @Offshorecomic (books V & VI are just marvelous) #IYI #Academics pic.twitter.com/hyqN5QYla8 Permalink 10:30 AM – 14 Apr 2017
@nntaleb The Donald coverging on Isocrates Golden Rule for Foreign Affairs: Treat other nations the way you want yours to be treated #SkinIntheGamehttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/852510810287075329 Permalink 6:57 AM – 14 Apr 2017
@KenMcCarthy The idiot news media is STILL confusing denying boarding w VIOLENTLY removing a BOARDED passenger. The latter is literally a criminal act Permalink 6:51 AM – 14 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Question: one has two thin green horizontal stripes, the other a thick longitudinal smear. Permalink 2:19 PM – 13 Apr 2017
@Alexa__Bella The lack of journalistic integrity here is astounding @EliLake~2nd story in 2wks you’ve stolen frm @Cernovich & claimed it as your own~C’mon Permalink 2:07 PM – 13 Apr 2017
@schmittpaula “Washington Post Doesn’t Disclose Writer Supporting Syria Strike Is a Lobbyist for Tomahawk Missile Manufacturer”http://www.alternet.org/grayzone-project/wash-post-writer-supporting-syria-strike-lobbyist#.WO69XR4sew8.twitter Permalink 8:55 AM – 13 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Minsk pic.twitter.com/fPKrpowi97 Permalink 5:50 AM – 13 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Max has a thread on how “Aleppo” side casualties were much less than Mosul; Salafi PR/think tanks promoted “butcher of Aleppo”.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/852469578080956416 Permalink 4:24 AM – 13 Apr 2017
@nntaleb If someone pays you for anything other than a specific transaction, you are a slave.https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-legally-own-another-person-4145a1802bf6 Permalink 3:54 AM – 13 Apr 2017
@wikileaks “[al-Quada] is on our side in Syria”–email from policy advisor to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (Feb 2012) https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/emailid/23225#efmAGIAHu ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/k6hIk68nvC”> pic.twitter.com/k6hIk68nvC Permalink 2:04 PM – 12 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Paula have you seen many children without… mothers? And that was Nusra. Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Apr 2017
@nntaleb She is good. Very good. That’s how statisticians and detectives think.https://twitter.com/partisangirl/status/852219568818802688 Permalink 11:26 AM – 12 Apr 2017
@nntaleb The world is a better place today than it was over the weekend. Now I can go back to working on my Fat Tails papers.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/852183092420857856 Permalink 8:39 AM – 12 Apr 2017
@EHSANI22 Leading CW expert Theodor Postol of MIT just published a 14-page document questioning WH claims that Sarin was dropped from #Syrian AF plane pic.twitter.com/kMJgxwsN8Z Permalink 8:36 AM – 12 Apr 2017
@0ma6e lots of charlatans revealing themselves with this spicer story @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/UTuKZGujX3 Permalink 7:10 AM – 12 Apr 2017
@13125x lots of charlatans revealing themselves with this spicer story @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/UTuKZGujX3 Permalink 7:10 AM – 12 Apr 2017
@nntaleb The NYT is for and by IYIs like Haberman, insecure philistines & fake intellectuals. The Post is to the point & vastly less pretentious.https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/852028786358984705 Permalink 10:38 PM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Great news; looks like we have the answerhttp://nypost.com/2017/04/11/trump-were-not-going-into-syria/ Permalink 9:58 PM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb The worst part of the story is the ongoing smear campaign against the UAL victim, to attenuate their mistreatment. Permalink 8:30 PM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Think tankers & journos are usually low IQ, intell. insecure & living in financial insecurity. They only attack those who cannot harm them. Permalink 6:08 PM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb My idea of writing essays is to make sure the reader has ABSOLUTELY no idea what will be discussed on the next page. Otherwise textbookish.https://twitter.com/Maximilian_H1/status/851806211179675648 Permalink 5:28 PM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb To those who aren’t traders YET discuss UAL’s “billions in losses” in valuation. The market move today is TOTALLY within noise. pic.twitter.com/LUZXX7KnQ9 Permalink 2:49 PM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb God bless you if true, @Cernovichhttps://twitter.com/cernovich/status/851897652711104512 Permalink 1:52 PM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb So this fellow speaks for a group claiming an evidence-based study of the Syrian problem?https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/851861056385417219 Permalink 11:32 AM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 2) To those IYI idiots w/cost-free virtue signaling, I have 6 Syrian refugees on my property in Lebanon. Without #Skininthegame, shut up. Permalink 9:23 AM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb The Assad family blew up my house. But I forcefully OPPOSE his removal. Better have a Franco than Gadhafi transitionhttps://medium.com/opacity/the-syrian-war-condensed-a-more-rigorous-way-to-look-at-the-conflict-f841404c3b1d Permalink 8:52 AM – 11 Apr 2017
@EHSANI22 This type of media-induced policy shift — once called the CNN effect — is not newhttps://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/04/10/did-media-images-just-change-u-s-policy-in-syria-three-lessons-from-kosovo/ Permalink 7:21 AM – 11 Apr 2017
@DanielLMcAdams With no shame…https://twitter.com/JustinRaimondo/status/851801487285952512 Permalink 7:20 AM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb At a Seder last night was asked to read a fragment in Aramaic in the original accent.Unprepared for the diacriticals https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Seder.m4a Permalink 6:57 AM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Did @realDonaldTrump betray his constituency by taking a neocon fragilista interventionist approach to regime change, or is it just noise? Permalink 5:44 AM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb I just published “Real Life is Risk Taking”https://medium.com/p/real-life-is-risk-taking-ac424efd5fcc Permalink 4:58 AM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Without #skininthegame people keep repeating the same mistakes.https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/851217595957211137 Permalink 4:32 AM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Sawiris (a Copt, Severus) is saying that states are attacking terrorists, but ignoring the Sheikhs preaching terror, real source.https://twitter.com/NaguibSawiris/status/851005866165895168 Permalink 4:10 AM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Instead of increasing the $$, United opted to forcibly remove a passenger. They fughotaboud markets. Do they deserve punishment by markets? Permalink 3:56 AM – 11 Apr 2017
@nntaleb My best profile except that, to retaliate [see story], the angry photographer whom I insulted made my face swell.https://twitter.com/lucknow_leopard/status/851449213028364288 Permalink 8:32 AM – 10 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Conspiracy theorists in the opposite direction: I will transit in Warsaw instead. Note: you need a Russian visa to transit in Moscow-> Minskhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/850389220241924099 Permalink 7:11 AM – 10 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Scott Ritter’s account is very rational. Something in this CW story seems strange: forensic evidence coming from …AlQaeda.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/851190584752656386 Permalink 2:55 PM – 9 Apr 2017
@nntaleb I was actually stuck in ATL for 7 hours. Benefit: Started model of tail risk from flights scheduled too close to one another.https://twitter.com/mikephillips1/status/850842831774154753 Permalink 12:21 PM – 9 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Unlike Copts: Shiites, Leb Christians, Alawites & Druze are armed to the teeth They know NO Sunni gov can really protect them #SkinintheGame Permalink 8:53 AM – 9 Apr 2017
@dkbissinger @nntaleb how reading news reduces one’s knowledgehttps://twitter.com/rypauley/status/851034975717687296 Permalink 7:48 AM – 9 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Adding a section to The Intellectual Yet Idiot https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cLdJyKhakf”> pic.twitter.com/cLdJyKhakf Permalink 7:23 AM – 9 Apr 2017
@GennadySimanovs since now every economist tried to convince me that opposite is true and 1% of Top doesw not pay taxes at all cc @stevesi @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/5MsFhMdVD0 Permalink 7:21 AM – 9 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday to all. Permalink 6:06 AM – 9 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Now, a strike against the originating Saudi Arabian airfield is needed for consistency. I am certain that pics of children are on the way.https://twitter.com/YemenPostNews/status/850700849424855041 Permalink 2:23 PM – 8 Apr 2017
@nntaleb From reactions of “libertarians” to Syrian strikes: they view + The state as the main agent of war + War as main pretense for state powers. Permalink 1:02 PM – 8 Apr 2017
@Cernovich Entire air strike may be been kayfabe, which was predicted by @ScottAdamsSays, deemed likely by @nntaleb.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4390942/Syria-claims-KNEW-launch-airstrikes.html Permalink 9:51 AM – 8 Apr 2017
@nntaleb So I too fell for the Tophet baby-killermsmear campaign ag Phoenicians! Children cemeteries were because of … simple children mortality pic.twitter.com/jRzSC1RxfR Permalink 8:35 AM – 8 Apr 2017
@nntaleb The most ancient smear campaign is the “baby killer”, used against Punic & Canaanites (only partly justifiable w/the tophet). #LindyEffect Permalink 8:07 AM – 8 Apr 2017
@nntaleb The most ancient smear campaign is the “baby killer”, used against Punic & Canaanites (only partly justifiable w/the tophet). #LindyEffect Permalink 8:07 AM – 8 Apr 2017
@catoletters Nikki Haley begins each UN speech with the Used Car Salesman pitch “Let tell you the truth”, “Let me be honest with you” Permalink 7:17 AM – 8 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 2) Note: Social media: a) distributes images of children b) unlike MSM doesn’t filter WHICH children to show. This may help peace. Maybe. Permalink 7:16 AM – 8 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 2nd order effects: Once you make policy based on PICTURES of children victims, ALL parties will now produce pictures of children. Kapish? Permalink 6:40 AM – 8 Apr 2017
@CamilleOtrakji When the US+UK were working on toppling Iran’s popular prime minister in 1953, the lovely BBC was part of regime change, just like today pic.twitter.com/OMqlfBOQKl Permalink 4:34 AM – 8 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Convexity effect # Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/fermatslibrary/status/850448409777520640 Permalink 7:00 PM – 7 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Not so fast… Something to consider. Egyptians are saying 4 children,5 adults died. Retaliate for death of children by…killing children? pic.twitter.com/dVBLqhpqZ7 Permalink 6:38 PM – 7 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Apparently they spared the runway (2 fighter jets took off today). “Drole de guerre” (phony war). Donaldo playing MSM & libs like a violin. pic.twitter.com/SfvD819J6p Permalink 6:06 PM – 7 Apr 2017
@tlhote A french teacher at the officer academy of St Cyr is explaining in more details in your direction.http://conscientia.fr/2017/04/07/frappe-us-en-syrie-la-nuit-des-dupes-masquait-un-joli-de-coup-de-billard/#more-838 Permalink 2:28 PM – 7 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Squid ink in a diluted sauce w/ tomato pic.twitter.com/HrFotSMdGd Permalink 9:47 AM – 7 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Conspiracy theorists: For the record, I will transit in Moscow airport new week on way to a conference in a neighboring country. Permalink 9:46 AM – 7 Apr 2017
@gt_carter Hey @nntaleb how does it feel to always be right? ;-) Permalink 7:30 AM – 7 Apr 2017
@nntaleb The strike has ~0 military impact. Russians were informed & Syrians could clear area. All it says: no Chem Weapons even if it wasn’t you. Permalink 6:42 AM – 7 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Did Prez Trump do a “Facta Non Verba” on Assad? So he could control him? Yes, he did on Assad, N Korea, China…https://medium.com/incerto/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49 Permalink 5:39 AM – 7 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Media pple of 2017 In Hammurabi’s code, ~3750 y. ago, a false accusation was punished as if the accuser committed the crime. Be careful. Permalink 2:39 PM – 6 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 5) Bravo! While MSM & policymakers are childlishly driven by images, this man is starting a v. rigorous process!!!https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-syria-on-april-4-2017-18448 Permalink 1:28 PM – 6 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 4) Worrisome: IF Assad has all to lose from such an act AND it happened, THEN he may have lost control of some of his troups. Permalink 12:49 PM – 6 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 4) Worrisome: IF Assad has all to lose from such an act AND it happened, THEN he may have lost control of some of his troups. Permalink 12:49 PM – 6 Apr 2017
@nntaleb As a researcher I cannot possibly support a given party or person 100%. Never unconditional support. I support policies, never factions. Permalink 12:26 PM – 6 Apr 2017
@nntaleb As a researcher I cannot possibly support a given party or person 100%. Never unconditional support. I support policies, never factions. Permalink 12:26 PM – 6 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 3) On the other hand, IF the story is true, THEN some action is needed. Permalink 11:51 AM – 6 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 3) On the other hand, IF the story is true, THEN some action is needed. Permalink 11:51 AM – 6 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 2) Historically blood libels against Jews have taken same shape: generalized hysteria on stories of children kidnapped & drained of blood Permalink 11:06 AM – 6 Apr 2017
@nntaleb He pronounced “Kabish?”https://twitter.com/udaberg/status/850016348268843008 Permalink 9:15 AM – 6 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Investigate, don’t be blinded by emo-pictures. Can be true but 3750 years of justice system shouldn’t be wiped out by Qatari PR !https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/849797885357109249 Permalink 7:50 AM – 6 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Very very unorthodox but it works pic.twitter.com/QVrRhxCTom Permalink 7:26 AM – 6 Apr 2017
@nntaleb I am not yet certain that it’s a lie, but I am not certain it is truth. We need more rigorous investigation BEFORE policy statements.https://twitter.com/DanielLMcAdams/status/849871224494804992 Permalink 6:36 AM – 6 Apr 2017
@nntaleb The Susan Rice Affair: 1) Today, unlike in 1970, EVERYTHING government officials do leaves indelible traces 2) They are likely to forget it Permalink 6:05 AM – 6 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Slight mistake thta dpesn’t matter for m=0: mad should be \int \sqrt{(x-m)^2} dx Permalink 8:27 PM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb How BS vendors BS, a sample.https://twitter.com/quinnovator/status/849801913755353088 Permalink 8:19 PM – 5 Apr 2017
@Darius1296 One should do the opposite. A good heuristic would be: the more potent the pictures, the more you question the evidence. Permalink 2:25 PM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Syria: Are people reacting to the pictures of children or from EVIDENCE? The more potent the pictures, the less you question the evidence. Permalink 2:20 PM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb As you can see, I got this from HIS feed. pic.twitter.com/s7lvHNE638 Permalink 12:14 PM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Note that 2/4 is 4/2 in US. Kapish? Permalink 12:11 PM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 2) The only person I know who is both famous & technically superior is Mathematica’s Stephen @Wolfram Not an academic. Never met Gell-Mann Permalink 11:50 AM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 2) The only person I know who is both famous & technically superior is Mathematica’s Stephen @Wolfram Not an academic. Never met Gell-Mann Permalink 11:50 AM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb The plot thickens.https://twitter.com/HKX07/status/849460664376709120 Permalink 11:43 AM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Probability Du Jour: The border between thin tails & fat tails resides in exponential distribution. Maximum entropy under MAD constraint. pic.twitter.com/cAXWRqVzS9 Permalink 11:38 AM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Peter Hitchens, the smart brother http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2017/04/its-wmd-all-over-again-why-dont-you-see-it-.html Permalink 9:38 AM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb This is how the Fat Tails book looks like pic.twitter.com/7ybHj56YFX Permalink 8:24 AM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Interesting.https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/849635794994286592 Permalink 8:08 AM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb These MBA charts are repelling, they stand ag. everything classical & rigorous.https://twitter.com/hjarche/status/849626971269189632 Permalink 7:21 AM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Wildcard criticism: sentences that can apply to anything, s.a. “narcissistic”, “he thinks he knows everything”,… https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154746535088375 Permalink 6:30 AM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 2) I understand Tillerson was not a risk-taking entrepreneur, but executive is better, much better than bureaucrat. Kapish? Permalink 5:54 AM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 4) Paranoia has a statistical analog: Akaike & similar, the ratio of complexity/overparametrization of the fitted function to # data points. Permalink 5:29 AM – 5 Apr 2017
@nntaleb BS vendors are not used to people like Tillerson who don’t like to spend their lives crafting statements, talk, talk and talk.https://twitter.com/kjhealy/status/849420383753261060 Permalink 3:56 AM – 5 Apr 2017