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Black swans, debt, risk and mother nature-NassimTaleb & David Cameron 2009

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David Cameron in Conversation with Nassim Taleb from The RSA on FORA.tv

(Click arrow to play audio) Audio only Nassim Taleb in conversation with UK Conservative party leader David Cameron. They discuss how Black Swan thinking can be applied…

From The Guardian’s take on the talk.

The remarks by Taleb, the conservative author of the book Black Swan, were made during an appearance with Cameron at the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (RSA) on Tuesday. Labour attacked Cameron, who says Taleb’s work confirms his own prejudices, because the “eccentric” academic says economic crashes are a good thing. In some of his most provocative remarks at his appearance with Cameron, the Lebanese-American academic criticised Obama for increasing his taxes as he harked back to Darwin’s theory of evolution. “I happen to do OK. I am paying more taxes,” Taleb said. “How can you have evolution if those who do the right thing have to finance those who did the wrong thing? If you are making money in 2009 – that means you have a robust business in the cycle – you are paying more taxes. If you are losing money in 2009 you get a bigger tax break. It is the opposite of everything I believe in.” Taleb has become a conservative folk hero following the success of his book, which examines the phenomena of “Black Swans” or “low-probability, high-impact events” that can have a major impact on the world. via David Cameron’s guru Nassim Nicholas Taleb says rich should not pay more tax to help the poor | Politics | The Guardian.

Dance With Chance – Making Luck Work For You

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dancewithchance

In a nutshell, Dance with Chance is all about knowing what you can and cannot predict and, therefore, what you can and cannot control.

Think about it. Every day human beings make decisions. Some are important: should you invest your life savings in the stock market? Others are trivial: should you take an umbrella today? But in both these cases you have no control. The stock market will go up or down, it will rain or it won’t… and there’s nothing you can do about it.

The problem comes when people seek to gain control by making predictions. By consulting an investment expert or a weather forecast, they think they can control the value of their investments or avoid getting wet.

But this is just an illusion. An illusion that psychologists call ‘the illusion of control’.

In many areas of life – the stock market and the weather are just two examples – accurate prediction just isn’t possible. There is always uncertainty about the future in most areas of our lives. Throw in some emotions, such as greed, fear and hope, and human beings’ predictions get even less accurate. So what are we to do?

Fortunately, Dance with Chance comes up with plenty of positive suggestions. Most importantly, it uncovers a ‘paradox of control’ that’s the antidote to the ‘illusion of control’. By knowing when to give up control, we can actually gain more control over many aspects of our lives than we had in the first place.

Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You Audio Only.