OVERTREATMENT as short volatility: Huge vindication of the argument of Chapters 21 and 22 on the convexity of iatrogenics (only treat the VERY ill): Mortality is convex to blood pressure. Spyros Makridakis found this graph from the Farmingham study.

The implication is obvious: only treat the seriously ill (and overtreat them!). But for every person very ill (say 4 STD away for the norm), there are 5000 slightly ill (1 STD away). There we see why pharma has an incentive to treat mildly ill people.

Note that the iatrogenics are the same for both mildly ill and very ill.

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