@davidboxenhorn Skin in the gamehttps://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/989980601653612544   Permalink 3:07 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Basically those who don’t know anything about Syria, like @jordanbpeterson, shd STFU Permalink 2:54 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I think I am completely done with @jordanbpeterson. Gave him the benefit of the doubt with Monsanto and other nonsense. This does it. Meanwhile let’s see what we get from @Rootclaim’s rigorous hypothesis testing.https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/status/989970697966571521   Permalink 2:46 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@VergilDen #Bigoteering and #Pedophrasty in one tweethttps://twitter.com/doechancellor/status/989728932772499457   Permalink 2:05 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Wolf Blitzer, a despicable man. Very despicable. To him we need to worry that stopping the shelling in Yemen would lead to a loss of jobs in weapons manufacturing.https://twitter.com/IntheNow_tweet/status/989942263563239425   Permalink 1:37 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Thanks to Hillarists, the “left” now likes militarism, interventionism, censorship, a police state, and mccarthyism.https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/989888000233533440   Permalink 10:40 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Now, in a modern framework, there is no justification for the asymmetry. Except one needs to stay vigilant abt obsessive weirdos. Permalink 8:35 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb DECISION THEORY DUJOUR Very rational to react more to negative than positive comments,for the same reason one shd react more to losses than profits: RUIN AVERSION Someone who hates you can kill you, so in a physical environment the emotiononal asymmetry is good risk management Permalink 8:14 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@KarenSweet9 “When a town holds the remnants of an ancient language, one needs to look for vestiges of an ancient practice.” Wow. @nntaleb nails it #insight #SITG #VCBookClub Permalink 8:12 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@Chad_Urban Those of us @ACBACharleston are trying to change the higher ed paradigm. Thankfully, we’re getting some press recognition too on outlets like @gardenandgun and @ThisOldHouse http://gardenandgun.com/feature/a-class-by-itself/  https://www.thisoldhouse.com/watch/demo-time-charleston-houses-2018   Permalink 6:39 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@jordantpine Great insight from @nntaleb’s #SkinInTheGame: “Reading a history book, without putting its events in perspective, offers a similar bias to reading an account of life in New York seen from an emergency room at Bellevue Hospital.” Permalink 4:52 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I have changed the spelling to Gabish, pronounced halfway between a Semitic qof & a Greek hard “g”. Gabish?https://twitter.com/jd_hoggg/status/989595228486164480   Permalink 3:40 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@MicheKilloran “You can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on peer assessment” #SkinInTheGame #SITG #VCBookClub @nntaleb Permalink 2:46 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@thalesians Deeply saddened and shocked by the arrest in Iran of @thalesians founder Paul @bilokon’s @imperialcollege PhD supervisor the prominent computer scientist and mathematician Abbas Edalat. #FreeAbbasEdalat pic.twitter.com/S5g8hrcVbl Permalink 12:36 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@financequant If you come to the Real World Risk Institute, this is one if the insights you will learn. That and why talking about volatility often makes no sense at all.https://twitter.com/datascifact/status/989546588233256960   Permalink 9:53 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Random arithmetic progressions #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/9HjaDuR5De Permalink 8:33 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 10 In #Antifragile I document the confusion Business =>Technology => Science, far far far far more frequent than the reverse. Problem is that academic, not practitioners, write the books. Permalink 8:07 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 9) Remember that the “University” system for this “liberal education” (trivium/quadrivium) was historically closely associated with, and supervised by, the Church. Technical education was left to free thinkers. Permalink 7:00 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 8) The idea that liberal education makes free thinkers is about the greatest myth: empirically, liberal education creates the exact opposite of “thinkers” and “free”: indoctrinated and slaves.https://twitter.com/Plato4Now/status/989487426639990785   Permalink 6:27 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 7) Finally, we can split education: + Taught by nonskininthegame people (math, poetry, etc.) + Taught by skininthegame people (engineering, medicine, belly dancing, plumbing, finance, law, burglarizing, computer “science”, accounting, …) In SEPARATE institutions. Permalink 6:06 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 6) The educational model is now imploding as the only thing people seem to learn at colleges is ideology by losers who became professors because they aren’t good enough to create things & got together to BS in a citation ring #RentSeekers (not just in economics, but everywhere) Permalink 5:47 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 5b) The French solved the problem with knowledge exams for educators (“aggregation”); you never end up having people judged solely by peers (See #SkininTheGame ). (Same problems: “know economics” is interpreted as knowing theories by economists, not economic facts). Permalink 5:42 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 5a) The problem of the peer review system is selecting professors on theories abt subject never checked for basic knowledge of subject. It is common for people to know the “post colonial gender theory” of Levant, teach it, but never the actual facts. Permalink 5:39 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 4) So we need to separate “things to learn to be civilized” and “things you learn to do things” with separate institutions. The only overlap I could find was mathematics, though not a strong argument since applied math is a v. different animal. Permalink 5:37 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 3) The Anglo-Saxon world conflated the two, with aristocrat-envy: + Education to be civilized. (Literature, philosophy, poetry, abstract math, history, stamp collecting, etc.) + Education to learn to do things. (Engineering, medicine, accounting, law, belly dancing, plumbing) Permalink 5:33 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) For instance, mathematics as taught for “liberal” education, was theoretical mind exercise. Euclid’s theorem was never used in building. Meanwhile builders (parts of guilds with trade secrets) were using their own heuristic, richer, geometry. (see #Antifragile) Permalink 5:30 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb EDUCATION. Distilling the conversation with @bryan_caplan hosted by @tylercowen 1) There has been a traditional separation between: + “liberal education” for free men, (liber), who didn’t work for a living, & +”technical education”, for those who labor. Permalink 5:28 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb But @HooverInst has low ethical standarda; it kept @henryimiller who was fired from Forbes for putting articles written by Monsanto— he “wrote” 5 articles smearing me.https://twitter.com/markvirag/status/989467787436453890   Permalink 4:49 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A think tank fellow had the discipline to overcome my insults to his profession while reviewing my book.https://www.city-journal.org/html/ante-15856.html   Permalink 4:25 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Can someone explain what’s going on? Thanks.https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status/989184815340535808   Permalink 1:53 PM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Mark Lynas’ typical charlatan responses. His friend Henry I. Miller was fired from Forbes as his comments were written by Monsanto (including attacks on yours truly). Monsanto papers… tons of documents: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/newly-released-monsanto-papers-add-to-questions-of_us_597fc800e4b0d187a5968fbf  https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/989187323211452416   Permalink 10:37 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@financequant If this doesn’t help you understand p-hacking then you’re beyond hope.https://twitter.com/1962Kiser/status/989181933207732224   Permalink 10:20 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb If there is such as thing as Monsanto derangement, why did Monsanto send 1200 letters after my PP paper? Why does Monsanto fund smear campaigns? Why did Monsanto pay “scientists” to write articles abt Glyphosate? Have you seen the Monsanto papers?https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/989160126824308736   Permalink 9:23 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb KELLY CRITERION My lecktchur notes to students. Thanks to @ole_b_peters who showed how stoooooopid decision theorists have been not getting time vs/ ensemble returns. pic.twitter.com/YflQZF4mUB Permalink 8:20 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb CLUSTERING You can detect a shill (such as the charlatan @mark_lynas) using the following method: there is a cluster of people who are both GMO & glyphosate advocates, when the distribution of advocacy shld be somewhat random. What do the 2 have in common? Monsanto.https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/936347998333865985   Permalink 7:35 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “Taboo fatigue”https://twitter.com/normonics/status/988519169074319362   Permalink 6:01 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@PaleoPhil And here is Nassim on the past interchangeability of blue and green:https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/932046776135311360   Permalink 5:06 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This is from Reich(2018): something about splicing I don’t get. Does it mean one only inherits clusters of DNA? Otherwise to exclude an ancestor would be very low probability. Is this 47+71 an average or a stochastic quantity? cc: @trishankkarthik also noticed. pic.twitter.com/286p1x5hAH Permalink 4:59 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb @danieldennett reminds me of the IYI Arabists secularists in Syria & Iraq who, in 1934, predicted that religion (particularly Islam) would be a thing of the past by 1960; then in 1960, predicted that it would be gone by 1990, then again before Sept 11, predicted… Permalink 3:18 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Finally, after all these years, a compliment.https://twitter.com/atakanyz/status/988894548314206208   Permalink 2:51 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Trying to speak Turkish in preparation for my visit to Dunya Guzelihttps://youtu.be/x3ublVoNog0   Permalink 1:30 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@alxpr1c3 it was only a matter of time – https://youtu.be/uEhqXjlCsDQ   @nntaleb Permalink 12:42 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb IYI @danieldennet’s remark is the best advertising for John Gray’s new book.https://www.amazon.com/Seven-Types-Atheism-John-Gray/dp/0374261091/ref=la_B000AQ0VXU_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1524586923&sr=1-1   Permalink 9:23 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Margaritas ante porcos*. *Pearls before swine.https://twitter.com/danieldennett/status/988799650156163079   Permalink 8:33 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@MaxBlumenthal The author of this desperate smear job is so malicious he cited a literal blacklist by a neocon think tank accusing every public figure who has ever given an interview to RT — all 2326 of them — of being “useful idiots” https://twitter.com/maxblumenthal/status/930168593320415232?s=21  https://twitter.com/chrisdyork/status/988720747928588289   Permalink 7:40 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@ole_b_peters What will happen in this experiment? https://osf.io/8t25b/   Will people switch between the specific utility functions EE predicts or won’t they, as EUT predicts? What would be a fair interpretation? @rorysutherland @nntaleb @R_Thaler please guess, comment, retweet. Permalink 7:05 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@ToryAnarchist Don’t miss @DrGeneCallahan’s review of @nntaleb.https://twitter.com/modagejournal/status/988756314926043136   Permalink 5:57 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@thackerpd I love how #FOIA emails keep uncovering more and more “independent” #GMO scientists who, oddly enough, are working with #monsanto @hiltzikmhttps://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/988499832506535938   Permalink 5:55 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 3) Knowledge entails seeing signal from noise. You don’t get that with promiscuous reading. Permalink 5:05 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The Indians get the idea of rigor!http://www.opindia.com/2018/04/economists-bullshit-for-a-living-nn-taleb-gives-kaushik-basu-a-lesson-on-skin-in-the-game/   Permalink 4:38 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 1) Today is #BookDay. Remember The opposite of reading is not not reading, but reading something like @NewYorker (& books in its style) 2) Critical reasoning, the ability to spot logical inconsistencies, degrades w/promiscuous reading. Choose carefully and read little. Permalink 4:33 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@ggreenwald In Yemen today, the Saudis bombed a wedding, killing at least 20 people, including the bride. They killed “mostly women and children.” The US & UK – who some believe do humanitarian interventions – both play vital roles in the Saudi destruction of Yemenhttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/yemen-airstrike-wedding-party-killed-injured-bani-qayis-saudi-coalition-latest-updates-a8317826.html   Permalink 4:22 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ Our paper http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/metrics?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   has surpassed 12,425 views/downloads in PLOS ONE. Its finding “the most accurate ML method was worse than then least accurate statistical one” was not contested expect by only one of the several hundred tweets/retweets received. Permalink 12:59 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Always apologize, except when you’ve done something wrong.https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/988229182034362368   Permalink 6:47 PM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) Unless the person is a risk taker, the higher up in any organization, the more you can dispense with him/her. If the nonentrepreneur CEO of [name your company] did not exist, the world would be the same. Or better. Permalink 3:24 PM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I woke with this conclusion from Skin in the Game: 1) Things work thanks to a handful of people; the rest operates by situational imitation, narrow mimicry, and semi-conscious role-playing. Permalink 3:19 PM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Things are easier if you call it Western Eurasia, as the scientific name in genetics.https://twitter.com/GreenPlusAnE/status/988118541399445504   Permalink 11:45 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Actually sub-imbecile @booksandbooze_ doesn’t get that defending grandmother ag Sunstein-style psycholophasters is not because “conservative” but because one prefers nonBS to BS., or prefers what works (w/high STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE) to what fails. This is called SCIENTIFIC. Permalink 9:11 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Imbecile, who is attacking “science” and “experts”?https://twitter.com/booksandbooze_/status/988051858701914112   Permalink 6:52 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Under the glorious Third Republic, the French gov’s share was 9% of GDP. Today it is ~60% 1 in 12 workers are now civil servants. pic.twitter.com/5NUcZMRoQx Permalink 5:19 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Correction: I said somewhere that the French National Assembly was today mostly composed of professional politicians/bureaucrats’lawyers (the usual IYIs). The rate is about 40%.http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/06/26/quelles-professions-exercent-nos-deputes_5151288_4355770.html   Permalink 3:50 PM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Do you think the Russians interfered in the elections in Saudi Arabia? Permalink 1:51 PM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Reciting Hammurabi in Akkadian while writing Skin in the Game https://www.dropbox.com/s/prgh5gsxj6ghc3m/hammurabi.mp3?dl=0  https://twitter.com/francispouliot_/status/987727336555581440   Permalink 9:30 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb It takes bet 45 minutes & a week to convince a smart person that GMOs are an intellectual fraud, not science but scientism, that supporters are not “skeptics” but shills, etc. Takes only 30 seconds to convince a computer scientist. Just mention P/NP and they get it instantly. Permalink 7:30 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS Friends, scholarships are available for the 8th program May 28-June 1st. Full scholarships are available for women, Syrian students, & unemployed people -please mail a (short) CV http://realworldrisk.com   Permalink 7:13 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb In fact I tend to block people who give unsollicited advice, make logical mistakes, or represent Monsanto/Saudi Barbaria, rarely those who attack me. Permalink 6:22 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The thing is, I enjoy Twitter fights & other public brawls. I always open Twitter with the anticipation one has facing a box of Christmas goodies. If you are scared of opening Twitter, you are doing something wrong.https://twitter.com/CHSommers/status/987495738073583617   Permalink 5:42 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@ggreenwald Things that are *not* press freedom attacks: — Trump tweeting juvenile insults about TV stars. Things that *are* press freedom attacks: — Obama & Trump DOJ prosecuting sources under Espionage Act — DNC suing WikiLeaks for *publishing* docs:https://theintercept.com/2018/04/20/the-dncs-lawsuit-against-wikileaks-poses-a-serious-threat-to-press-freedom/   Permalink 5:17 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) People using such services as @23andMe me for autosomal DNA get percentages (23% this, 10% that, etc.) This is BS: you need to look at INDEPENDENT categories, as in the map above, and look at distance from clusters. Permalink 4:51 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Speculation Du Jour: Genetic distance on PCA Distance on PCA, when small, does not reflect difference in traits, only the rate of inbreeding from period >the Bronze age. When large, disproportional difference in traits. A better measure is differential entropy. @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/dsjUs1iEmL Permalink 4:46 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) In a rational society, pedophrasty should be a powerful tag, at par with “racism” and “sexism” pic.twitter.com/nlTOal9f1E Permalink 4:38 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 1) Pedophrasty is a great way to get people to suspend judgment. So powerful it has to be used by scammers.https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/987442108939284481   Permalink 4:37 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@surreallyno After 236 pages of thought-provoking chapters, the Epilogue is remarkably simple. And powerful. Great book, Nassim Taleb @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/VpxO6BCwDM Permalink 1:04 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@howisthewater The Northern and Western European tradition needed to absorb Rome into their linear classics narrative as otherwise they would need to accept that their progenitors were defeated, butchered, and enslaved by the war machine of the Roman Republic en masse. Permalink 12:10 PM – 20 Apr 2018

@oldlevantine L-ligga l-qurayciyye ma jtééxit minna laxaala. L-muçassassét l-Maruniyyé qilla, min l-qniisé lal-batraqiyyé larr-rahbanéét lal-madééris bi-rimmita, hinné lli ÿawrabo c-caÿb. ss-suusé minna w fiina. The barbarians aren’t at the gate; they ARE the gatekeepers, from the Patriarch on Permalink 12:02 PM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Why anything (like academia) that escapes evolutionary selection (survival) will rot. Like economics and this charlatan @kaushikcbasu.https://medium.com/incerto/what-do-i-mean-by-skin-in-the-game-my-own-version-cc858dc73260   Permalink 11:51 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Charlatans & economists use logical flaw: because a pilot is expert, they are experts. But Pilots are selected via skin-in-the-game mechanisms. Plumbers, dancers, dentists, mathematicians, snipers, pastry chefs are experts. Not this @kaushikcbasu. Economists BS for a living.https://twitter.com/kaushikcbasu/status/987179168600350720   Permalink 11:48 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “Mr. Wegert and Mr. Landmesser: People, Numbers and the Tipping Point” by Predrag Brajovichttps://medium.com/@PredragBrajovic/mr-wegert-and-mr-landmesser-people-numbers-and-the-tipping-point-d66848dc9578   Permalink 9:49 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Map is wrong. Berytus spoke Latin (not just Greek), the coastal towns were Hellenic.https://twitter.com/onlmaps/status/986889895871426560   Permalink 9:12 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Where I discover that Benjamin Ferensz and I have been sharing the same Calabrese barbers for 25 years. He is about to turn 100 and speaks Italian! He actually jokes in Italian. pic.twitter.com/Rn8C2VmcA2 Permalink 8:31 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb What the Mary Beards anachronistic BS vendors are confused abt: the genetic distance SouthMed-Roman was a fraction of Brit-Roman. So, if anything, the Brits would have been the “ethnics”. Reich: North Africans (S. Meds) are ecologically WestEurasians.https://twitter.com/2trad4u/status/987334661411082240   Permalink 7:37 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) You do not build political systems based on wishful thinking (s.a. lets “eliminate” corruption). You build systems ROBUST to the assumption that humans are flawed, self-serving, & prone to suckerdom (let’s make sure corruption/lobbying/thinkthanking don’t have a big payoff).https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/987063810379919361   Permalink 6:59 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it, our precautionary principle page & the computational class for GMOs. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/x2XBpUwbcv”>  pic.twitter.com/x2XBpUwbcv Permalink 5:16 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@ektrit HISTORY Being a history buff, and a practicing Christian Orthodox, I could not match the history of the Church and the official European histories. I owe it to @nntaleb to finally understand that 19th-20th century historians simply made RETROACTIVE decisions about 10th century. Permalink 4:24 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb If you want an elementary class on HOW TO NOT THINK CRITICALLY: A GUIDE ON CIRCULAR REASONING & BS VENDING, read this fellow @ChrisDYork Why this degradation of reasoning abilities in 2018, not 218? Adverse selection: only rejects become journalists, a recent profession.https://twitter.com/ChrisDYork/status/986865853693087744   Permalink 4:21 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb You can see Monsanto bribing educators to promote their “science” on social media. By some coincidence the same ones who tried a character assassination on yours truly. Monsanto worked hard to make people believe that SCIENTISM = SCIENCEhttps://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/987090232351735813   Permalink 4:00 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ There were a lot of tweets, retweets, likes and criticisms for our PLOS ONE paper http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/metrics?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   with three major ones: 1. The time series were too short 2. They were too noisy 3. There were no explanatory variables to support forecasting Permalink 12:59 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This is called cannibalism. Managers of the bank get bonuses, but bank pays fine to the government… and banks are stopped out by the government. The managers should be paying the fines. #skininthegame #RobertRubinTradehttps://nyti.ms/2vpkYRK   Permalink 5:13 PM – 19 Apr 2018

@robertwjordway “…the vast majority of the exercise “science” that is being conducted in universities is complete BS” -@CoachRippetoe, @SS_strength. I think @nntaleb would extend this to several other domains… #startingstrength pic.twitter.com/iSS46yr4XL Permalink 4:46 PM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb In a centralized system, it takes very, very little money to control government. I am not surprised to see how little money lobbyists make compared to the control they exert over Yuuuge decisions. #localism pic.twitter.com/wUMNKbK6Ss Permalink 1:22 PM – 19 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Inheriting inequality https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/InheritingInequality.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3Icfjb3eLt”>  pic.twitter.com/3Icfjb3eLt Permalink 10:16 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A year and a half later, nobody has yet provided data about Syrian casualties and “genocide”.https://medium.com/opacity/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd   Permalink 9:59 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A monoculture (such as the one we have in Saudi Barbaria financed lobbies) will produce logical inconsistencies. pic.twitter.com/v33hXvruJP Permalink 9:37 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Indeed JK Rowling is an insult to logical inference. pic.twitter.com/CW4E9HPCYc Permalink 9:34 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/986977224883568640?s=21   Permalink 8:12 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb My friend Guru is half subsaharan African. Like many SSA he doesn’t like the notion of racism to be diluted by selfserving virtue merchants to the point of lack of effectiveness: its true victims will be first to pay the price.https://twitter.com/guruanaerobic/status/986926056258068480   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “ In 2015, I asked where to get the style and never got a reply from Wolfram. “ Who are you bullsh**ing? Permalink 7:38 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The Heuristics and Biases tradition does not need this loss aversion stuff (complicated for tail events/dynamics). Its main subject is errors of judgment facing uncertain events: their catalogue works well for non-tails. Permalink 5:44 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@RandPaul I ran for office to put a stop to Washington’s out-of-control spending! Today, I introduced my “Penny Plan” federal budget that will balance within five years.https://youtu.be/8Ti0BmGhDNY   Permalink 5:34 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb @CutTheKnotMath Maestro, do you known where/if this Norm inequality has been proved? pic.twitter.com/GSEFJ4McJt Permalink 3:17 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb DISCUSSION THREAD: Heart Attack Rate for Sprinters Friends, looking for data/papers/other on heart attacks by sprinters vs Marathon runners. Needs to be age-adjusted, properly controlled, etc. cc:@GuruAnaerobic @drjasonfung @trishankkarthik Permalink 2:31 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The type of thing we watch for when we write papers and articles. Ms @juliamacfarlane make sure you read the ethics guidelines before discussing @KarlreMarks pic.twitter.com/Tiou7VEuoq Permalink 2:19 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Notice plagiarist @KarlreMarks uses “he is so eager for intellectual validation”, a sentence that applies everywhere: a nonplagiarist would not have tried something of the sort, rather: sorry I didn’t notice, it is coincidental, etc. Step 2: they downplay plagiarism… Permalink 2:13 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb How every plagiarist respondshttps://twitter.com/KarlreMarks/status/986711038157520896   Permalink 2:03 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Turns out clown @KarlreMarks is also a plagiarist.https://twitter.com/KarlreMarks/status/986506998375157761   Permalink 1:22 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) Further, @paulmromer, answers on both sides could have been lost in spam folders; it is unrigorous to generalize from 1 piece of correspondence. (I for my part have never had an inquiry w/ them that went unanswered). But using it part of rant over private vs public… Permalink 7:38 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Mr @paulmromer, your rant bashing Mathematica is BS: +You misrepresent the reaction of @WolframResearch (they replied) +Offensive to users like myself +Strange for an economist to diss for profit closed systems (incentives?) +You don’t get mathematical tinkering/explorationhttps://twitter.com/paulmromer/status/985280552440909824   Permalink 7:10 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile, to be constructive, I recommend @confusezeus and @janinedigi & others in the verbalistic business enroll in a class of critical thinking where the empirical methods of evidence weighting by @Rootclaim are taught.https://philosophy169.wordpress.com   Permalink 6:17 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Training Bicyclists on a Mountain Road https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/AfterJamesBond.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KusUwfchUM”>  pic.twitter.com/KusUwfchUM Permalink 5:18 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This systematic approach by @Rootclaim (or something of the type) is the only chance we have to use rigor in analysis. As a probabilist I am proud to see my field lead to some clarity. Here is the analysis of the previous chemical event.https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-on-april-4-2017-18448   Permalink 4:22 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@rory_yeomans Syria is the end point of a journalistic process which began during the Yugoslav conflicts of the 1990s. Make the complex simple and imply any journalist/academic or analyst who has a different insight is an apologist or acting in bad faith. Repeat. Rinse. pic.twitter.com/z065G4cMZz Permalink 3:53 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Information gains from attempts to repress it. I was neutral to info by Robert Fisk but not neutral to attempts to smear him. The more hyperactivity & anger against him, the more likely his info to be true… #Antifragile Permalink 2:18 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@LHMMacKenzie Truth really is stranger than fiction. Accusing an acclaimed journalist of assisting in a war crime based on the premise of him reporting a contrasting perspective. 2018 feels more like 1984. Permalink 2:17 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb So @janinedigi, you want Robert Fisk to be judged for war crimes for reporting on events, in a way that contradicts your priors? Stalinism enforced by people disguized as journalists?https://twitter.com/janinedigi/status/985955195589971969   Permalink 1:25 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A Simple Integral of a Peculiar Functrion. Practically no integration https://www.cut-the-knot.org/proofs/SimpleIntegralWithASpecialFunction.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #calculus ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/9SMVIdC11x”>  pic.twitter.com/9SMVIdC11x Permalink 9:33 AM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb In Skin in the Game: …risk aversion, or something even more foolish, “loss aversion” pic.twitter.com/u6s83iDKKt Permalink 3:46 AM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Ha!!!https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/986186324884541440   Permalink 3:23 AM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “The Corruption of Evidence Based Medicine — Killing for Profit” by @drjasonfunghttps://medium.com/@drjasonfung/the-corruption-of-evidence-based-medicine-killing-for-profit-41f2812b8704   Permalink 2:52 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Enmity can flip twice; friendship only once. Permalink 2:17 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Enmity can reverse twice, friendship only once. Permalink 2:05 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb هيدا منوا الحرف العبري بس الحرف الارامي-كنعاني. اهين الواحد يكتببوا من الحرف العربي Permalink 12:02 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb דלאלת אל חאירינ כתב בל–ערבי, בלכצ אלעבריhttps://twitter.com/bdaiwi_historia/status/985280646493941760   Permalink 11:53 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@widespreadhaze Robert Fisk reporting from the clinic in Douma at which the victims of an alleged CW attack were filmed. There was no CW attack, the victims were suffering from hypoxia due dust inhalation. Please RT:http://podcasts.spiritradio.ie/robert-fisk-from-douma-syria/   Permalink 11:25 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@Wilkmaster I trust Fisk 100x more than Boris and May on this (Beware though: The jihadis gas captives so you do/will have some Sarin-affected kiddos. Poor little things) pic.twitter.com/PpdoykkeF5 Permalink 9:16 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A preliminary glossary of counteraccusations, to fend of accusatory propaganda such as “racist” in situations where it is not warranted, and similar matters. pic.twitter.com/EU4sDFQbvy Permalink 8:06 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Given the probability of two balls being of the same color. How many are there of each color? https://twitter.com/gregminshall/status/985792358720724992   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hNz9gL3ZEW”>  pic.twitter.com/hNz9gL3ZEW Permalink 6:11 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@WeAreLebanon A sunny fresh day from #Beirut By @hasnafrangieh #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/gtrk18PUUv Permalink 2:32 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@spyrosmakrid Hype Vs Reality: How accurate are AI/ML methods beyond image, sound and text recognition? It all depends on the type of application and the four factors shown in the photo taken from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/eWJaoUYN3A”>  pic.twitter.com/eWJaoUYN3A Permalink 1:15 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb My paper on p value hacking was accepted in a journal. I was told the math was peer-reviewed to be OK but that it has to have an explanatory section simple enough that “even a statistitian” can understand. Any comment? https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rH8aM0e7pM”>  pic.twitter.com/rH8aM0e7pM Permalink 3:40 PM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Espen is the most Independent Yet Rigorous (IYR) thinker I’ve had the privilege to work with. He moved from option trading to math finance to quantum mechanics/statistical physics.https://twitter.com/EGHaug/status/985646350372098050   Permalink 3:33 PM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb One byproduct of inequality: socially confident scholars who didn’t care abt their reputation: Wittgenstein, B. Russell, Darwin (mostly Erasmus), Galton, De Broglie, etc. I’ve never met any scholar who, like Wittgenstein, didn’t give a flying f**ck abt his/her standing. Permalink 1:10 PM – 15 Apr 2018

@SimnaniIqbals Jeffry D Sachs said in two minutes all that is to say about Syria. Trump’s initial instincts were right, but then he listened to the establishment. Worth clicking.https://twitter.com/markweisbrot/status/984525820621357056?s=21   Permalink 11:52 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 4) A powerful one would be “Nabothizing”, as Naboth was the victim of false accusation by Jezebel, or something of the sort. (Incidentally my real family name is Naboth; Taleb Nabout was my gr-gr-gr-gr-gr-grndfather) but the Leb state cut off Nabout in 1923 to simplifity.) Permalink 9:50 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@_benoux_ 1) Some notes on the issue The meaning of words evolve by those who control the narrative, but they can’t control Lindy effect of time. A sophist used to mean “wise” payed by powerful people. Now it’s the opposite. Pharisee was a title of superior sanctity. Now it’s an insult. Permalink 8:42 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 3) If you devalue words like “racism” or “chauvinism” you will end up harming the true victims. Calling someone “Hitler” for trivial reasons is an insult to the real victims of Hitler.https://twitter.com/AndBeyond_N/status/985537088929058818   Permalink 8:17 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) The idea is that if someone accuses you of something, you spend your time explaining why you are not what you are being accused of. Instead, fire back with a worse accusation, so it is the accuser who now has to defend himself… Permalink 8:09 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) We BADLY need such word and make it as SEVERE as the accusation itself -a first step towards penalty. Recall that in Babylon a false accusation was punished as if the accuser committed the crime. Permalink 7:29 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb We need a word to summarize such INTERVENTIONISTA BS, the fallacy of looking at “dictators” without looking at the OTHER SIDE.https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/985517879524319232   Permalink 7:22 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath For the very beginners https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/TwoBallsOutOfFour.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PLJhr4QodF”>  pic.twitter.com/PLJhr4QodF Permalink 7:21 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb We need a word for the misuse of the accusation of “racism” or “chauvinism” to exploit the power of such label in situations where the accusation is not warranted. Accuser: “This is racist” Answer: “This is the xxxxxx fallacy (or fraud)” GraecoLatin Words are powerful. Permalink 7:20 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@onlmaps Demographics of the Aegean Sea and its Surroundings around 1919,… http://dlvr.it/QPbSN7   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yjQsmg8sl4″>  pic.twitter.com/yjQsmg8sl4 Permalink 4:06 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Delenda Goldman Sachshttps://twitter.com/jay7yagi/status/985397595802619909   Permalink 2:15 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@medialens From the School of Liberal Humanitarian Intervention, Andrew Rawnsley bemoans that the West is ‘guilty of failing to act’ in Syria. No mention of the CIA spending $1 billion per year, arming and training ‘rebels’. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/lawmakers-move-to-curb-1-billion-cia-program-to-train-syrian-rebels/2015/06/12/b0f45a9e-1114-11e5-adec-e82f8395c032_story.html?utm_term=.4b71666d2438   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/D8LqV2X4dL”>  pic.twitter.com/D8LqV2X4dL Permalink 12:26 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@thebeatthatmy @nntaleb circa 2015. Rereading old knowledge in times of stress. Спасибо. pic.twitter.com/j11ScsvAVq Permalink 7:56 PM – 14 Apr 2018

@nntaleb How about Epipedidexation? A single word you can use in a debate to fend off an accusation with another one. “You are supporting a baby-killer” Answer: “This is shoddy epipedidexation!” Any better word? Permalink 1:47 PM – 14 Apr 2018

@nntaleb We are maximally vulnerable to pictures of suffering children. Hence manipulation: beggars who rent children, PR firms who stage Syria things, etc. An accusation of “supporting baby killers” is defenseless. Unless we find a name for this shoddy manipulation. Pueri…? Ideas?https://twitter.com/jadinho123/status/984918030017875968   Permalink 12:39 PM – 14 Apr 2018

@catoletters Father Daniel in Syria: “There Never Was a Popular Uprising in Syria”https://www.sott.net/article/354637-Sott-net-Interview-with-Father-Daniel-in-Syria-There-Never-Was-a-Popular-Uprising-in-Syria   Permalink 12:15 PM – 14 Apr 2018