@nntaleb We should move the bulk of civil servants to Alaska. https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1139349756017143808 Permalink 6:55 AM – 15 Jun 2019
@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/E9SW6hmxy8 Permalink 3:10 PM – 14 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Thanks to @NonMeek, an explanation of the point. pic.twitter.com/03aWOhj6kO Permalink 1:56 PM – 14 Jun 2019
@nntaleb I managed to fool 6000 people yesterday. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1139184456856678400 Permalink 8:05 AM – 14 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Even more think that psychology is scientific. https://twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1139545553992183809 Permalink 8:03 AM – 14 Jun 2019
@nntaleb 2) Elsewhere, I discuss the same point within ergodicity. Worrying about homicide & terrorism is extremely rational. Same with GMOs. Permalink 6:45 AM – 14 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Beware naive empiricism funded by @BillGates. An insult to risk and probability. pic.twitter.com/qXXIV28rUE Permalink 6:29 AM – 14 Jun 2019
@nntaleb The Arabs took locals as slaves. They use same word for “slave” ( عبد) and “subsaharan African” … even in classical poetry! (هجاء كافور) The pseudoliberal propaganda works well… for now. pic.twitter.com/xTJ8KbYdqH Permalink 5:04 AM – 14 Jun 2019
@nntaleb (Except it misses that Ethiopia uses Amharic not Arabic) Permalink 4:51 AM – 14 Jun 2019
@nntaleb This is a better map showing the severity of Arab colonialism in Africa. pic.twitter.com/nbVKcraPZj Permalink 4:41 AM – 14 Jun 2019
@nntaleb When you look at the national languages of Africa as colonialism, you can see that it is split into French, English, and Arabic colonialism (plus residues s.a. Portuguese). For the “liberals” in academia, IYIs, & BS vendors a la Edward Said, Arabic isn’t colonialism. https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1139486646049656835 Permalink 4:04 AM – 14 Jun 2019
@nntaleb The price of fighting with more than one state without clear offers to settle: all your enemies become natural friends. The coalition: Russia-China-Iran so far created by these imbecile saber-rattling neo-cons Next, naturally, Turkey Even Israel is flirting with China. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1139481466847600640 Permalink 3:41 AM – 14 Jun 2019
@nntaleb So far 100% of the psychologists I have examined appear to be clueless about the meaning of something as elementary as correlation. It is all helped by that idiot @primalpoly supplying papers with “evidence” for the noncircularity of “IQ”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1136526793811402752 Permalink 3:32 AM – 14 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Figured out why 99% of academics have to be misfit, 3rd rate intellectually, by construction. You observe, say in probabilistic matters, yuuge inconsistencies. When you point it out to them, they require a “reference”. OK: write the fucking “reference”. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ Permalink 3:07 AM – 14 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Yuuge vindication for Ole Peters @ole_b_peters and people who doubt psycholophasters of “utility”. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1139155625961820162 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JuGII9xMRF”> pic.twitter.com/JuGII9xMRF Permalink 1:29 PM – 13 Jun 2019
@TalebWisdom “In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social “science” and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:03 AM – 13 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Friends, a question. Do verbal surveys (in the form of multiple answers) work? Permalink 7:55 AM – 13 Jun 2019
@nntaleb He forgot French: “clebs” or “clébard” https://twitter.com/HebreWords/status/1138784220439109632 Permalink 5:46 AM – 12 Jun 2019
@lizzie363 THIS IS WHY CASH IS SO IMPORTANT!! Economists singing the praises of a cashless society are actually arguing for authoritarianism!!! https://twitter.com/jchristychoi/status/1138769437723570176 Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Jun 2019
@nntaleb My video explaining why @BillGates should do more thinking, less naive empiricism a la Pinker. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=13&v=9dKiLclupUM Permalink 4:15 AM – 12 Jun 2019
@TalebWisdom “Another marker for charlatans: they don’t voice opinions that can get them in trouble.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:59 AM – 12 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Here is the approach showing the relatedness of Levantines with Persans and Anatolians vs Arabs. Four Population Tests. pic.twitter.com/FmrN30BInU Permalink 3:18 AM – 12 Jun 2019
@nntaleb You cannot shill without being eventually discovered. Thank you Monsanto papers & the U.S. legal system. pic.twitter.com/oSrhclNhuA Permalink 3:15 AM – 12 Jun 2019
@nntaleb David Ropeik @dropeik is one of the Monsanto shills who went after our precautionary principle. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1138749281269981184 Permalink 3:13 AM – 12 Jun 2019
@nntaleb 4) The Bill Gates who follows his instinct & grandmother’s paranoia is smarter that the @BillGates who tries to use statistics a la Pinker and reads stuff written by psycholophasters. https://twitter.com/EllJohnny1/status/1138541410980978689 Permalink 1:23 PM – 11 Jun 2019
@nntaleb 3) Deeper discussions with proofs here. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ Permalink 1:04 PM – 11 Jun 2019
@nntaleb My solution pic.twitter.com/CeRcgdvnsx Permalink 1:00 PM – 11 Jun 2019
@nntaleb 2) Never compare risks with fat tails to regular ones. The law of large numbers works differently. Plus ergodicity. We survived hundreds of millions of risks thanks to paranoia. We don’t need to be lectured by pseudostatisticians. @BillGates pic.twitter.com/4pQPQcGYjM Permalink 12:56 PM – 11 Jun 2019
@nntaleb 1) Actually people’s fears line up to tail risks much better than naive empiricists. This is monstrously ignorant a la Steven Pinker. https://twitter.com/BillGates/status/1138520780042465280 Permalink 12:49 PM – 11 Jun 2019
@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (Air travel recreation). Acrtually the bound is tighter. Prove it is >= 27. pic.twitter.com/jl2E5spyXY Permalink 11:53 AM – 11 Jun 2019
@black_swan_man Part 3 of 3 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @dan_aykroyd #TradingPlaces #CBOT #riskmitigation #longgamma #squeezer pic.twitter.com/7EkUSCtVjY Permalink 11:21 AM – 11 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Lebanese are much more related to Iranians than to “Arabs”. Some people may hate the news. https://twitter.com/officialarti/status/1138445121119277057 Permalink 6:59 AM – 11 Jun 2019
@TalebWisdom “So knowledge grows by subtraction much more than by addition—given that what we know today might turn out to be wrong but what we know to be wrong cannot turn out to be right, at least not easily.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:08 PM – 10 Jun 2019
@ronportnoir @nntaleb This Chomsky quote about cockroaches reminds me of what you say about psychiatry. https://twitter.com/chomsky_quotes/status/1138200548862119937 Permalink 2:50 PM – 10 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Turks and Greeks should be made aware of this. And the Lebanese, of course. [Note this is by country borders: Southern Italy and Northern Iran should be blue] https://twitter.com/onlmaps/status/1138096007059632128 Permalink 9:34 AM – 10 Jun 2019
@nntaleb The monks may be confused linguistically, but the views are breathtaking… Note the monastery (red roof top) on the right, hugging the slope, impenetrable, out of the reach of the Ottomans & other invaders. pic.twitter.com/4RoDhSRVGI Permalink 4:53 AM – 10 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Surprise: entirely home farmed mushrooms, mozzarella, vegetables for a pizza joint in Byblos & Amioun. (“Una Pizza”) pic.twitter.com/sL9PecoX6P Permalink 4:43 AM – 10 Jun 2019
@nntaleb “Chemphobia”: while the term was coined by industry shills, is entirely rational. Scientifically so. Some chemicals are safe but we never really know before the #LindyEffect takes its course. Elementary statistical significance. Very elementary. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1138041466935304194 Permalink 4:25 AM – 10 Jun 2019
@TalebWisdom “If someone is making an effort to ignore you, he is not ignoring you.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:11 AM – 10 Jun 2019
@nntaleb This thread a summary of PRINCIPIA POLITICA. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1137742800487927809 Permalink 12:03 AM – 10 Jun 2019
@nntaleb 2- Added section on xenophobia/discrimimation at some scale, not others. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/nyBAGgWVje”> pic.twitter.com/nyBAGgWVje Permalink 11:06 PM – 9 Jun 2019
@nntaleb IF levels of lipids are ~ in 2 pop., but not *something else*, AND there are yuuge CVD differences, then the something else is necessary for CVD, perhaps in conjunction with lipids, which requires a joint probability distribution. Precautionarily, avoid that *something else*. Permalink 10:10 PM – 9 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Statistically, by exclusion, we are zooming in on a different story for CVD: it supports the 1-2 meals a day, feast/fasting ancient heuristics & traditions. Minimize exposure time to insulin, especially under Med genetics. @Mangan150 https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1137731523661127680 Permalink 9:54 PM – 9 Jun 2019
@Juan_indaliano @nntaleb this genetic research on southern Spaniards seems to support your “languages travel; genes less so” assertion. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-41580-9 Permalink 11:18 AM – 9 Jun 2019
@nntaleb “Linear” correlation is a misnomer: it does indeed measure a linear relationship between variables, BUT it is nonlinear. https://twitter.com/VirendrasinghP/status/1137584275153276928 Permalink 10:15 PM – 8 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Answer: .87! See equation 13. pic.twitter.com/iJCJ8lULTj Permalink 10:07 PM – 8 Jun 2019
@nntaleb SUNDAY QUIZ For a correlation number between X and Y, what is the “half point” correlation between 0 and 1, that is, the correlation for which you have half the uncertainty about X if you observed Y ( or vice-versa) compared to not having observed Y? Permalink 9:50 PM – 8 Jun 2019
@nntaleb 2) SJL (#SocialJusticeLunatics), grievance studies windbags and other imbeciles may dominate the universities, but… they are underepresented in the jury system. This and the Monsanto destruction should restore our faith in the system. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1137429172333289473 Permalink 12:22 PM – 8 Jun 2019
@nntaleb 1) In America, we may have universities run by SJL (#SocialJusticeLunatics), we may have bad government, controled by lobbyists, but we have a well functioning legal system. If someone tries to mess w/you and your small business, call a lawyer. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jun/7/ohio-jury-awards-11-million-to-bakery-owners-targe/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=socialnetwork&fbclid=IwAR3OKRmYtC-r3ORzkyiuJWngOu4xTpBcyuI-c0TI7azPf_4l_i3q3hdpjMg Permalink 11:35 AM – 8 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Yuuuuuge mystery https://twitter.com/CapitalParadox/status/1137398724668338176 Permalink 9:46 AM – 8 Jun 2019
@nntaleb https://twitter.com/LouisLebbos/status/1137338419380703232 Permalink 9:28 AM – 8 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Baalbeck contains these gigantic stones, 1650 tons! It dwarfs pretty much anything I’ve seen elsewhere in the ancient world, makes the acropolis look like a Las Vegas version. pic.twitter.com/13JJMyrsnA Permalink 9:27 AM – 8 Jun 2019
@nntaleb And the road through Mt Lebanon cuts through walls of snow. pic.twitter.com/D8mJJ4AygF Permalink 7:03 AM – 8 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Baalbeck, behind the temple of Dionysos with archeologist @DrWissam and @PZalloua No Graeco-Roman ruin comes close in size. pic.twitter.com/I63lFWi6DU Permalink 5:10 AM – 8 Jun 2019
@DegenRolf Everything that psychologists have told us about the detection of deception may just be a big fat lie. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1745691619838258 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/bJLyByWUrd”> pic.twitter.com/bJLyByWUrd Permalink 12:09 PM – 7 Jun 2019
@nntaleb OK, OK, Correction: I granted on twitter the Persian language rights because I can’t transact. Permalink 8:17 AM – 7 Jun 2019
@imleslahdin Honored & Happy to announce that I will attend (as a learner) #RWRI this June 24th on a very generous scholarship by @nntaleb. Thank you Ostedhna! Now back to reading, programming and sharpening my math and probability. @trishank see you in NY! #risk #sitg #math #proba pic.twitter.com/mORMofk9Mw Permalink 7:58 AM – 7 Jun 2019
@nntaleb The highest honor: a pirated trnslation of Skin in the Game in Persian. https://twitter.com/skininthegameir/status/1136903480768172032 Permalink 7:12 AM – 7 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Convent Mar Antonios Qozachia ܩܘܙܚܝܐ: Boasting the first printing press in the “Arab world” in 1610, except that the press was in… Aramaic (Syriac)! Arabists are imbeciles. (Note the red color in the books) pic.twitter.com/6yycxYzQUD Permalink 7:07 AM – 7 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Ergodicity rephrased by @naval https://twitter.com/naval/status/1002103908947263488 Permalink 11:19 PM – 6 Jun 2019
@nntaleb footnote: The Latin alphabet is ALSO Phoenician. Permalink 10:37 AM – 6 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Friends, my PRINCIPIA POLITICA for comments https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/wS89f0EtZi”> pic.twitter.com/wS89f0EtZi Permalink 6:56 AM – 6 Jun 2019
@rorysutherland A lot of this is debatable. Unless you are a journalist – ie one of the hand-loom operators of the 21st Century – in which case it chimes with your own dismal experience. Instrumental inequality has never been lower. Take out property and education and everything is cheaper. https://twitter.com/herdmeister/status/1136548869544656896 Permalink 1:39 AM – 6 Jun 2019
@nntaleb For those who celebrate, Happy Eid! Permalink 1:32 AM – 6 Jun 2019
@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 13 A correlation of 50% reduces uncertainty by 6-13% not more. Meaning psychology is a citation ring/political agenda. pic.twitter.com/D3whiWeM97 Permalink 11:54 PM – 5 Jun 2019
@chemblette https://www.wsj.com/articles/rahm-emanuel-ex-chicago-mayor-is-going-to-wall-street-11559760420 Time to ban rent-seeking? What kind of value can this former politician create for society in his newfound capacity? @nntaleb @FrazerAnderson Permalink 9:46 PM – 5 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Erratum: economist -> social scientist (mainly psychologists) https://twitter.com/nntalebbot/status/1136339451154784256 Permalink 12:08 PM – 5 Jun 2019
@nntaleb For psychologists who are not blind, a correlation of 3/4 is visually much closer to 0 than to 1. That’s the logic of the scaling. My metrics look at the total surface (in the square) divided by the one inside the circle (sort of). pic.twitter.com/MEQ3Pzk1oe Permalink 10:46 AM – 5 Jun 2019
@TalebWisdom “People tend to whisper when they say the truth and raise their voice when they lie.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:09 AM – 5 Jun 2019
@hugowiz «… it seems to me that people flood their stories with numbers and graphs in the absence of solid or logical arguments.» Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #data #risk img. @thefredyjacob pic.twitter.com/uRPY6op6vx Permalink 6:19 AM – 5 Jun 2019
@nntaleb People starting to write Lebanese in Lebanon… pic.twitter.com/YEo7WqOovh Permalink 6:13 AM – 5 Jun 2019
@black_swan_man Part 2 of 3 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @dan_aykroyd #TradingPlaces #CBOT #crash #robots #CTA #fooledbyrandomness pic.twitter.com/XMcCqqklQ2 Permalink 5:37 AM – 5 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Revenge is a moral obligation. https://twitter.com/RobRastapop/status/1136136216829546496 Permalink 10:18 PM – 4 Jun 2019
@nntaleb RESCALING CORRELATION to its own informational importance pic.twitter.com/1tuHKCKah3 Permalink 9:13 PM – 4 Jun 2019
@RobRastapop Yes. Funny how most don’t get this. 1. True Revenge is not petty. 2. Revenge is not about justice. It’s about preempting future injustice. Permalink 5:12 PM – 4 Jun 2019
@nntaleb These are the two ways you should interpret correlation. The third method, entropy based mutual information gives similar results. pic.twitter.com/9C4Ps3uh4h Permalink 11:58 AM – 4 Jun 2019
@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 12 “Europe” is not a real continent (at best the daughter of a Phoenician king). Its definition is political, now affected by a religious separation. If “Europe” were to be rationally defined, it should start in the Zagros/Caucasus. pic.twitter.com/7atZQ5zupR Permalink 11:45 AM – 4 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Time spent on revenge is never wasted. Permalink 11:00 AM – 4 Jun 2019
@nntaleb People have a hard time with via negativa. But your grandmother gets that you get to truth by removing the crap. https://twitter.com/Gbh89423811/status/1135942686400290816 Permalink 9:16 AM – 4 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Question: What is the difference between my function \phi[\rho,k] and Var[X|Y]? Yuuge differences, as \phi takes into account the fact that E[X|Y]=\rho Y (simplifying for normalized variables) which loses tractability in the tails. Both stories makes psychologists look v. bad. Permalink 9:03 AM – 4 Jun 2019
@nntaleb TUTORIAL: Where we show what correlation means under VERY standard Gaussian assumptions (breaks down under fat tails). You need a correlation of .87 to reduce half the uncertainty! pic.twitter.com/YZPJlbcWD0 Permalink 10:31 PM – 3 Jun 2019
@NicuMihalache @nntaleb surprise, surprise … https://twitter.com/kaibaumgartner/status/1135575151049879552 Permalink 11:09 AM – 3 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Refined the metric on the way back to Phoenica. We are interested in the range around K. How much does correlation(X,Y) reduce your uncertainty about Y given X? pic.twitter.com/EeKeaqUa00 Permalink 8:50 AM – 3 Jun 2019
@dwnhogendoorn @nntaleb Napoleon eroded SITG Permalink 11:32 PM – 2 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Part II to come. Flaneuring in Amsterdam with a notebook and… cannot resist doing probability. pic.twitter.com/w5RCXrS8h9 Permalink 2:59 AM – 2 Jun 2019
@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR A correlation of .5 (assuming it is rigorously obtained) carries practically NO information for the tails, cannot explain OUTPERFORMANCE. (Or why psychologists are toooooooootal idiots). #Scienceishard pic.twitter.com/YHhWnjmvCy Permalink 2:31 AM – 2 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Thank you twitter Macedonian origin FOR THE PLANT. https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1134827953869807616 Permalink 7:51 AM – 1 Jun 2019
@nntaleb I mildly disagree with my two erudite friends @turlevnon & Hareth. Many, many Italian and French terms came via 1) Sabir (the maritime Lingua Franca), and 2) Turkish. https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/1134819777682317322 Permalink 7:17 AM – 1 Jun 2019
@nntaleb SATURDAY PHILOLOGICAL SPECULATIONS Parsley in Greek Μαϊντανός, N.Macedonian “magdonos”, Levantine ba2dunés, Kurdish “bekdenus”, Turkish “maydanoz”. Yet it is most prevalent in the N. Levant (taboulé). What is, if any, the Semitic correspondent? Is it Macedonian in origin? Permalink 7:12 AM – 1 Jun 2019
@TalebWisdom “The first one who uses “but”, has lost the argument.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:50 PM – 31 May 2019
@nntaleb What the fuck does causality have to do with this? Permalink 9:34 PM – 31 May 2019
@nntaleb Yes, is Quillete about freedom of speech or support for a certain type of “science”. https://twitter.com/horacejuvenal/status/1134460991196917770 Permalink 7:34 AM – 31 May 2019
@nntaleb 8 (Final)- Napoleon Carrying a 4lb 870-page UK hardcover book across airports and cafés made me enjoy it better. Something @rorysutherland can understand. You don’t know what you really like until you actually try it. Was not expecting to prefer the heaviest possible version! pic.twitter.com/rp9U8DRMLn Permalink 7:17 AM – 31 May 2019
@nntaleb Here is my “why correlation is not usually correlation”, another problem that the one in the original post. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&t=53s Permalink 6:56 AM – 31 May 2019
@nntaleb Suspicion @Quillette/@clairlemon aren’t abt freedom of speech but cover for agenda: I’m AGAINST muzzling @NoahCarl90 w/program abt “cognitive differences” for “groups” (euphemism for racism) BUT find him a charlatan They’re upset about “charlatan” NOT happy w/support for freedom https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1134020269100666880 Permalink 6:41 AM – 31 May 2019
@nntaleb The verbal explanation. https://youtu.be/p76bQlnVuBM Permalink 6:23 AM – 31 May 2019
@nntaleb Part 2 of the paper; why entropy methods are vastly more robust. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1113566110367002624 Permalink 6:15 AM – 31 May 2019
@nntaleb Nothing to do with “causation”, I will block anyone who brings down the subject to that mantra. Correlation does not imply correlation. Permalink 6:04 AM – 31 May 2019
@nntaleb Why almost all social scientists are clueeeeeeless about what correlation means. pic.twitter.com/zp7rLoVP1e Permalink 5:59 AM – 31 May 2019
@nntaleb The Greco-Phoenician research fraternity GPRF: with @spyrosmakrid and Cypriots at the Univ. of Nicosia. pic.twitter.com/ZDs6dDGY02 Permalink 5:32 AM – 31 May 2019
@nntaleb Neurobiology is the most effective of pseudosciences because something derived in a lab fools you into thinking it’s hard science. Luckily we can tell it as it has the statistical rigor of S. Pinker crossed with the Marx Brothers. https://twitter.com/emanuelderman/status/1134428813759320064 Permalink 5:09 AM – 31 May 2019
@nntaleb After requests to have predictions of “sign” for random variables, settled w/@spyrosmakrid for tracking of buy/sell P/L (one in real life does not buy or sell “signs” but buys something at a price, and sells at another price). The compromise should please @mikeharrisNY Permalink 2:29 AM – 31 May 2019
@nntaleb (cont) Unless you ignore them, of course. Permalink 1:49 AM – 31 May 2019
@nntaleb You’ll end up resembling your worst enemies. Permalink 1:46 AM – 31 May 2019
@mdvex None of the successful people I know take notes. https://twitter.com/sacca/status/1134128910004772869 Permalink 11:19 PM – 30 May 2019
@TalebWisdom “If you want to teach someone a real skill, teach him how to fail. He will never learn it in school.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:48 PM – 30 May 2019
@nntaleb The gym at the Republic of Amioun in Northern Phoenicia. The church in the bakground (circle) is where 8 of my ancestors have been resting for 2 centuries. The rest are in another church to the right. pic.twitter.com/0osYEwzsU9 Permalink 1:51 PM – 30 May 2019
@nntaleb Fixed a few typos pic.twitter.com/xHHkQDg9L7 Permalink 1:21 PM – 30 May 2019
@nntaleb 7-Napoleon He had a strong Italian accent but then almost every provincial French person had an accent. People in Burgundy rolled the “r”s. His biographers are using today’s norms retrospectively. 8- Napoleon III was not related to him, DNA shows. Someone cheated. Permalink 8:33 AM – 30 May 2019
@nntaleb My nightmare, SCIENTISM promoted by @clairlemon et al: +Genes determine something <=> We know which genes +Traits are heritable <=> performance is heritable +Simple domains (running) = high dim complex domains +Mean = extrema (no minority rule) pic.twitter.com/YWDsLMTL6S Permalink 5:57 AM – 30 May 2019
@nntaleb 6- Napoleon His central flaw: viewed the world (including socioeconomic life) as a top-down streamlined military structure. Could not grasp selforganization and complexity. Permalink 4:29 AM – 30 May 2019
@nntaleb 5- Napoleon Post Russia, he was no longer Napoleon. “Napoleon did something completely out of character. He vacillated”. Permalink 3:29 AM – 30 May 2019
@nntaleb I stand against the termination of @NoahCarl90, for a simple reason: he is a charlatan. + He is a technically unsophisticated race obsessed “researcher” with a SINISTER agenda, + His research is so unrigorous it needs to be published so people can LAUGH at his project. https://twitter.com/NoahCarl90/status/1128396149004611588 Permalink 1:54 AM – 30 May 2019
@nntaleb Discussion with Spyros: why for fat tailed variables we need to use Mean Deviation NOT standard deviation, even when variance is finite. pic.twitter.com/JE8gsfnUZs Permalink 1:24 AM – 30 May 2019
@black_swan_man Part 1 of 3 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @dan_aykroyd #TradingPlaces #CBOT #crash #Sikh #Nihang #Gatka pic.twitter.com/lZ0rh105lZ Permalink 4:24 PM – 29 May 2019
@nntaleb My experience of IQ psychologists is that they are very dumb to do science & probability, yet never realize how dumb they are because they only talk to dumb psychologists. Yet they want to be arbiters of intelligence & PUT DOWN entire races & groups. Like this @GarettJones https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/1131297892629659649 Permalink 1:43 PM – 29 May 2019
@NonMeek “There is no significant #correlation (or any robust statistical association) between #IQ and hard measures such as wealth.” -@nntaleb …and here’s the comic strip to accompany that pic.twitter.com/ZV8D7vNrtM Permalink 10:46 AM – 29 May 2019
@nntaleb General Scholarships are open for RWRI 11 June 24-28 (Real World Risk Institute) http://www.realworldrisk.com Permalink 6:18 AM – 29 May 2019
@nntaleb Mystery? pic.twitter.com/XG2Mz7sIiK Permalink 3:40 AM – 29 May 2019
@nntaleb Friends, please help w/design for the @spyrosmakrid M5 competition. 1)Choise of variables 2) (more important) WHAT to forecast. X after 5 days, 1m, Min(X), Max(X), Max(X-Y). Important for decisions to get Min & uncertainty since “never cross a river 4 feet deep on average” pic.twitter.com/dP5shVLc5D Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 May 2019
@nntaleb 4- Napoleon Although the author tries to avoid spoilers when progressing through the ~45 battles, there is no suspense in the book: outcome is known. If something in Paris is named after it, (Jena, Austerlitz, Rivoli, Wagram, Castiglione), Napoleon won. Otherwise, he lost. Permalink 2:37 PM – 28 May 2019
@nntaleb Happiness is not defined by how people say they “feel” but by what they do. (Revelation of preferences) #Skininthegame @rorysutherland https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1132288942034833409 Permalink 2:10 PM – 28 May 2019
@nntaleb Squid ink; Cypriot squid ink. pic.twitter.com/nMvCx5gRz7 Permalink 11:41 AM – 28 May 2019
@nntaleb Taleb = φιλόλογος (Philologos ) pic.twitter.com/hvpJE43tCo Permalink 7:19 AM – 28 May 2019
@nntaleb Σήμερα είμαι στη Λευκωσία με τον @spyrosmakrid για να συζητήσουμε τον διαγωνισμό M5 Competition. Permalink 9:19 PM – 27 May 2019
@VergilDen “Don’t cross a river if it is four feet deep on average” The Black Swan, Taleb https://twitter.com/xkcdcomic/status/1133052055763820545 Permalink 9:56 AM – 27 May 2019
@TalebWisdom “Sometimes people ask you a question with their eyes begging you to not tell them the truth.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:41 AM – 27 May 2019
@nntaleb 3- My instinct tells me that most of these “correlations” used by psychologists become very weak associations if one uses more rigorous entropy methods. Permalink 6:07 AM – 27 May 2019
@nntaleb One sub-explanation. The other is nonlinearity: nonlinear correlation means .5 is almost 0. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1110279033890267136 Permalink 6:02 AM – 27 May 2019
@nntaleb 1- Once you look into these correlations, you see that below .8 they can be meaningless. https://twitter.com/AmirSariaslan/status/1132694130553950211 Permalink 6:01 AM – 27 May 2019
@NilsPetersen80 @nntaleb inspiring speech. Trials and error are “our” successstory. Could listen for hours. https://twitter.com/EL2019Antwerp/status/1132952193580052480 Permalink 3:38 AM – 27 May 2019
@nntaleb Do not conflate nationalism and decentralization. Both voters and politicians can be fooled by labels. Permalink 2:31 AM – 27 May 2019
@dwnhogendoorn There’s a clear self-affinity between autophagy and a regenerative urban waste disposal. Looking for good, category crossing resources on autophagy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autophagy Permalink 12:38 AM – 27 May 2019
@nntaleb Borges’ post in @bill_easterly https://twitter.com/bill_easterly/status/1132383150724661248 Permalink 6:30 AM – 26 May 2019
@nntaleb Words and languages are created by people with #Skininthegame: farmers, hunters, traders, prostitutes, carpenters, dancers, & builders. Not by linguists, academics, scribes, bureaucrats, librarians, grammarians, & other acroparasites. [Inspired by Borges & @bill_easterly] Permalink 11:48 PM – 25 May 2019
@Mangan150 Some people objected when I said that the establishment doesn’t want you healthy, saying that it’s not a conspiracy – though I didn’t say it was. But the actions of Facebook in deleting a low-carb group, likely at the behest of Big Food, make it look like – what? Permalink 5:05 PM – 25 May 2019
@PaulSkallas “Meditation is a way to be narcissistic without hurting anyone” – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/pkerin/status/1132356621169057792 Permalink 2:16 PM – 25 May 2019
@nntaleb Although, after a wet lunch pic.twitter.com/xXIdLKG812 Permalink 6:34 AM – 25 May 2019
@nntaleb Mykonos: a destination for people who have way too many trees at home AND want to go to the beach. Permalink 5:19 AM – 25 May 2019
@nntaleb Mykonos: reminiscent of the Lebanese deforestation of 1917 during the Ottoman blocade. pic.twitter.com/jdAHSZ410L Permalink 1:43 AM – 25 May 2019
@semacks “It is always suspicious when a person’s ideas line up perfectly to a specified party….” I only wish this didn’t describe 90%+ of people who comment on public policy https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1131674858658639895 Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 May 2019
@dougalpollux https://www.theamericanconservative.com/urbs/traditional-cities-are-more-resilient-than-modern-buildings/ #antifragility Permalink 7:22 AM – 24 May 2019
@nntaleb Closer pic.twitter.com/x2FuTtsJZV Permalink 10:26 PM – 23 May 2019
@nntaleb 3- I do not hide that I am writing a political code. My own. No explanations, no arguments. No attempts at convincing. Take it or leave it. pic.twitter.com/4JJEw9myCX Permalink 2:34 PM – 23 May 2019
@nntaleb 2- People have a hard time shedding their legal system. Napoleon lost; his code stayed, even spread to countries Napoleon never invaded! (Rather, the code of Cambaceres). Lesson: write a tight, coherent code. We are codifying the #PrecautionaryPrinciple Make it indispensable. Permalink 1:42 PM – 23 May 2019
@nntaleb THREAD 1-Christianity couldn’t spread like Islam into Central Asia, Africa. It offered no law for traders. Rome (&Berytus) had the law. So Christianity stayed limited to around the Roman empire. The Savafids could not convert out w/o losing the legal system. So they adapted. Permalink 1:35 PM – 23 May 2019
@BrankoMilan Trump (so far) likes to talk military, but not to use it–which is a major improvement upon W and most likely upon what Hillary would have done. https://twitter.com/m_orenstein/status/1131245499892338690 Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 May 2019
@RalphNader Still waiting. -R https://twitter.com/RalphNader/status/1129456063537926144 Permalink 7:50 AM – 23 May 2019
@TMFStoffel It’s funny how once people have skin in the game, virtue signaling ceases and true colors shine through. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/freakonometrics/status/1131564431257886727 Permalink 7:45 AM – 23 May 2019
@nntaleb Northern Phoenicia: the best gym in the world in my ancestral village. Convinced the owners to try teaching @SS_strength cc:@CoachRippetoe pic.twitter.com/eoHuw6VezT Permalink 7:32 AM – 23 May 2019
@OndPr Toute la campagne des européennes du Rassemblement National peut se resumer à un seul mot: Localisme. Au RN on s’inspire des idées de @nntaleb. https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1131283712203792384 Permalink 7:19 AM – 23 May 2019
@nntaleb We need to put an upper limit for RWRI returns. https://twitter.com/jaffer22915438/status/1131525923277295616 Permalink 5:00 AM – 23 May 2019
@TalebWisdom Thursday Wisdom: “If someone’s insults’ bother you; it is evidence that you respect him.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:20 AM – 23 May 2019
@nntaleb It doesn’t mean banning free speech, but banning nonpublic contact with elected officials and government decision makers. All discussions between paid advocates and goverment pple should be made public AND easily accessible. Permalink 6:14 PM – 22 May 2019
@nntaleb Unpaid advocacy is NOT professional lobbying. Permalink 5:46 PM – 22 May 2019
@nntaleb In the light of the Monsanto scandal(s), should we ban paid professional lobbying (as a form of asymmetric tampering with democracy and governance)? Remember there are 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Permalink 5:39 PM – 22 May 2019
@nntaleb In the light of the Monsanto scandal(s), should we ban paid professional lobbying (as a form of asymmetric tampering with democracy and governance)? Remember there are 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Permalink 5:39 PM – 22 May 2019
@apgox No. As @nntaleb wrote, “When I don’t have skin in the game, I am usually dumb”. For example, if I took out contents insurance, I’d probably be less vigilant to secure my property. If I took out robot replacement insurance, I’d probably be more prone to being replaced by robots. Permalink 4:34 PM – 22 May 2019
@nntaleb Liver is #Lindy. Not so much muscle meat. https://twitter.com/LIHF_Living/status/1131069023385464837 Permalink 10:53 PM – 21 May 2019
@nntaleb 3- Napoleon + Ate his meals in 10 min. He was also rushed in other activities where it is not recommended + Liked to “punish infrequently, but severely”. Reminds me to deliver & continue my ~4Y long dumping on that despicable @Noahpinion http://fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html Permalink 9:58 PM – 21 May 2019
@nntaleb Friends, if anyone is interested to help with a fundraiser for @TulsiGabbard next July in Westchester county, NY, please notify here. We need to help put her on the map before the arms merchants get to her. Permalink 9:26 AM – 21 May 2019
@nntaleb Mongolian here is written in Syriac https://twitter.com/incunabula/status/1130408407406587904 Permalink 3:21 PM – 20 May 2019
@nntaleb “No rumor is true until officially denied.” https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1130526242531364864 Permalink 10:37 AM – 20 May 2019
@ole_b_peters Expected utility theory tries to compute the future psychological consequences of the actions of your clones in parallel universes. Ergodicity economics tries to compute the future physical consequences of the actions of your younger self. What’s more relevant to you? Permalink 4:38 AM – 20 May 2019
@nntaleb Translation: a famous “businessman” from Naples offered French president Macron to “solve a problem” (or remove a “pebble from his shoes”), an offer Macron could not refuse. https://twitter.com/bruno_amable/status/1129852051494789120 Permalink 3:58 PM – 19 May 2019
@Morunoyo Rise Above Mount Lebanon 1/5 pic.twitter.com/4jAdKYznhg Permalink 8:51 AM – 19 May 2019
@nntaleb Nationalism, the nation state, and Arabism destroyed the best, most sophisticated, most learned, most open-minded city in the Mediterranean. #localism #DeMediterraniation https://twitter.com/CCavafy/status/1130087688680411138 Permalink 5:32 AM – 19 May 2019
@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 11 “Arab” science wasn’t Arab, but Persian (Avicenna, Biruni, AlKhawarizmi (Algorithm), etc.), Syriac, Chaldean, from long traditions that preceded the Arab invasion. They just wrote in Arabic; Newton wrote in Latin but isn’t called “Italian”. Permalink 4:52 AM – 19 May 2019
@nntaleb Obama and Geithner gave banks the largest bonuses in 2010. Acroparasite Geithner later got a $$$ job with the industry. This has nothing to do with capitalism. I want Geithner in JAIL. https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1129752853315227652 Permalink 1:11 PM – 18 May 2019
@nntaleb #Lindy https://twitter.com/kateantiquity/status/1129484824685813762 Permalink 1:02 PM – 18 May 2019
@nntaleb When you sell options, treat the possible as likely. When you buy them, treat the likely as merely possible. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1129787561252139008 Permalink 11:34 AM – 18 May 2019
@rj7050 According to Taleb, ‘means’ of two distributions cannot be compared if one has fatter tails. In my experience of money management, I have not met a single investor who understands that, but money managers understand that and sell crap.@nntaleb Permalink 11:04 AM – 18 May 2019
@nntaleb When you hedge, treat the possible as likely. When you speculate, treat the likely as merely possible. Permalink 9:35 AM – 18 May 2019
@nntaleb Nice Surprise Incerto now in 41 languages… Just signed the ARMENIAN contract. pic.twitter.com/WtKWUVLaXj Permalink 7:04 AM – 18 May 2019
@nntaleb Please mark my words. Neil Kashkari @neelkashkari is a DANGEROUS imbecile. https://twitter.com/wlwatts/status/1129058255207055360 Permalink 6:48 AM – 18 May 2019
@nntaleb Bayer’s Shady PR Firms: FleishmanHillard and Ketchum via @USRightToKnow https://usrtk.org/food-for-thought/bayers-shady-pr-firms-fleishmanhillard-and-ketchum/ Permalink 6:20 AM – 18 May 2019
@BenjaminNorton This propaganda is embarrassingly bad. Neo-McCarthyite hacks are implying anti-war candidate @TulsiGabbard is a Kremlin shill. Their “evidence”? Donations from renowned scholar Stephen F. Cohen and from a US peace activist who doesn’t want war with Russia https://www.thedailybeast.com/tulsi-gabbards-campaign-is-being-boosted-by-russophiles Permalink 1:09 PM – 17 May 2019
@sahouraxo Why isn’t this bombshell story about #Syria’s #Douma front page news worldwide? Because it destroys the false narrative of the corporate press—the very same media now manufacturing lies for the latest regime change wars planned for #Iran and #Venezuela. https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/confirmed-chemical-weapons-assessment-contradicting-official-syria-narrative-is-authentic-fbcbf7ef281a Permalink 11:25 AM – 17 May 2019
@nntaleb FRIDAY INTERESTING MATH RIDDLE DU JOUR pic.twitter.com/UJwlnITMaC Permalink 11:24 AM – 17 May 2019
@nntaleb Bloomberg Interview N N Taleb May 2019 https://youtu.be/4OfnsOT1ys8 via @YouTube Permalink 9:25 AM – 17 May 2019
@nntaleb IMBECILES w/low comprehension abilities. It’s NOT saying entrepreneurs are “braver than troops”, only that in ALL fields risk takers need to be treated w/ respect by nonrisk takers who leech on them. Clearly there are degrees of risk taking. IMBECILES https://twitter.com/lyta_gold/status/1129406176427499520 Permalink 8:26 AM – 17 May 2019
@nntaleb When people call you intelligent it is almost always because they agree with you. Otherwise, they would call you arrogant. Permalink 7:27 AM – 17 May 2019
@nntaleb Just posted a new paper Option Pricing Under Power Laws: A Robust Heuristic https://www.academia.edu/39149471/Option_Pricing_Under_Power_Laws_A_Robust_Heuristic?source=swp_share via @academia Permalink 7:48 AM – 16 May 2019
@nntaleb The problem of self employment Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 May 2019
@nntaleb “No probability without ergodicity”. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1129023713641238528 Permalink 7:07 AM – 16 May 2019
@TulsiGabbard Trump promised to get the US out of “stupid wars.” But now he and John Bolton are on the brink of launching us into a very stupid and costly war with Iran. Join me in sending a strong message to President Trump: The US must NOT go to war with Iran. #TULSI2020 pic.twitter.com/Q1sHDNwZSy Permalink 6:01 AM – 16 May 2019
@nntaleb PROBABILITY FRIDAY:The Mother of all Fat Tails: the log Pareto distribution Prompted by a discussion with @financequant It is not discussed in textbooks/web but easy to rederive. pic.twitter.com/ZyhLpTHCTC Permalink 4:25 AM – 16 May 2019
@normonics The #PrecautionaryPrinciple is necessary to save us from dangerous idiots with “good intentions” https://twitter.com/cnn/status/1065993396395880448 Permalink 4:20 PM – 15 May 2019