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Deep Read: Nassim Taleb (The Black Swan Guy) : Planet Money : NPR

by Jacob Goldstein

Here’s the latest Planet Money Deep Read — our occasional series of long-ish interviews with writers and thinkers.

Today, we hear from Nassim Taleb, the former Wall Street trader who published a book called the Black Swan back in 2007. The book was re-issued earlier this year, with a long new section called “On Robustness & Fragility.”

Listen to the Deep Read

[19 min 26 sec]

The book argues that most economic models fail because they don’t take into account rare, high-impact events that wind up driving history. (Taleb calls these events Black Swans.) The argument came out looking pretty good after the 2008 financial crisis.

The new section of the book includes, among other things, a prescription for withstanding a Black Swan.

The short version: Get rid of debt.

Tumor is still in the system – Nassim Nicholas Taleb part 1 & 2

Popular NNT / Roubini CNBC clip from August 12, 2009.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4GsCXnL9LE]

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5qbo7i_VMQ&NR=1]

I was a trader for 21 years, and anyone taking markets seriously needs to consider the following… You remember the day when Kervial was liquidated? The SocGen rogue trader… ‘the hero’ in France. They sold $50 billion dollars worth of stock. How much did capitalization drop world-wide, based on that?  Markets went down 12 percent! With a $50 billion order, you drop markets by 12%. We lost 7, 8 Trillion. A huge amount. So it tells you, don’t pay attention to stock markets. They’re driven by the marginal buyer. It means nothing. Short term markets mean nothing.

Nassim Taleb Bloomberg 05/13/10

HatTip to EG!

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVxcDgfTzuk]

NNT was also on CNBC yesterday. The interviewers get in the way somewhat but it’s worth watching.