nntaleb: The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical & Practical Aphorisms”, N N Taleb (of Amioun), c. Jan 2011 www.fooledbyrandomness.com/aphorisms.pdf
HatTip to Dave Lull.
Since aphorisms lose their charm whenever explained, I only hint to the reader the main subject of this book, which corresponds to the central theme of Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan, though rephrased in an aphoristic style —
nntaleb: (in the process of deleting all past aphorisms owing to copyright matters)
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Never heard of anyone deleting their Tweets before. They are definitely archived in numerous places on the web. I wonder what is meant by ‘copyright matters’. I wonder if the book will consist of the aphorisms alone or will have additional content. JH
May 19, 2010 51:32
Nassim Taleb professor, writer
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, renowned expert on risk and randomness, discusses The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. This bestselling book is now out in paperback with a new essay, “On Robustness and Fragility.”
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
This lecture contains strong language.
