Syria, Minority Rule, An Ounce of Algebra, The Null Hypothesis | Twitter

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@nntaleb Mr Lakens, please kindly show where my equations were “discovered” in that paper and explain the claim of “re-invented” p-value. @lakens Permalink 2:19 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Is it me or a Kafkaesque absurdity? Europe allows Saudi Barbaria to teach/promote Salafi hatred in cities while locally”fighting” terrorism. Permalink 3:59 PM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic: if you have a difficult equation to solve, ask a physicist or an engineer, never a real mathematician. @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 2:36 PM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Real world math NEEDS to be robust to assumptions. Our message in RWRI http://www.realworldrisk.com   @dsquareddigest @Tayeste88 Permalink 2:19 PM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb “An ounce of algebra is worth a ton of verbal argument” is from Haldane, a biologist with brains. @Tayeste88 Permalink 2:14 PM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb An ounce of algebra is worth a ton of verbal argument. Mathematics is not sufficient but necessary to remove the BS. @Tayeste88 Permalink 2:01 PM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb No longer capable of reading “scientific” text w/discourse/graphs. Either math (w/comments), or humanities, nothing in between.#barbell Permalink 12:43 PM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb OK, here is the metadistribution of “power of test” for specific p. @ceptional pic.twitter.com/lZMvyObXrT Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Mar 2016

@TalebBot The ancient Mediterranean : before monotheism, people changed and exchanged rites and gods as we do with ethnic food. Permalink 7:20 AM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Ystrdy in front of St Patrick’s Cathedral in NY Salafi fellow blasted Salafi prayers. Blast Byzantine vespers in Riyadh & you’d be beheaded. Permalink 7:09 AM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb FINAL Version: Dense paper on p-values without the verbose cluelessness of soc science http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0   Permalink 5:57 AM – 25 Mar 2016

@KS1729 @nntaleb very nice. Two improbably elegant ones by Ramanujan. Thought you might appreciate. pic.twitter.com/sdKhBSva1u Permalink 3:48 PM – 24 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Actually for 0< p < 1/2 pi ! Even better Permalink 3:41 PM – 24 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Come on, appreciate the beauty ! @nils_petter87 Permalink 2:01 PM – 24 Mar 2016

@nntaleb 2) Spent the night trying the most possibly elegant mathematical expression for metadist of p-values. Exciting! pic.twitter.com/mfidYvNjCx Permalink 1:39 PM – 24 Mar 2016

@TalebBot Life is about execution rather than purpose. Permalink 1:20 PM – 24 Mar 2016

@nntaleb P-Value: Woke up at night: the “null hypothesis” is a set of measure 0 ! New version http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0   Permalink 5:16 AM – 24 Mar 2016

@nntaleb A fun fun book to read for those who like an intellectual James Bond. http://www.amazon.com/Secret-Fatima-Peter-J-Tanous/dp/1504035119/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1458820088&sr=1-1&keywords=peter+tanous+fatima   https://twitter.com/PeterJTanous/status/710233158449496066   Permalink 4:48 AM – 24 Mar 2016

P-Values, Growth | Facebook

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For those interested in p-values, a short (very technical) paper and a video commentary. I was able to pull out the exact meta-distribution of p-values (i.e. p-values as random variables).
The point is that the same phenomenon will produce p-values all over the map, A true p-value of .12 will produce p-values <.05 more than half the time, so people may never replicate and get the same result.
One Hundred Years of P-Value Bullshit!
The paper: http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0

The probability distribution of p values
This is a companion to the short paper at http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues… It explains the problem with p-values giving different values… (3/23/16)

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I was at a venue where someone wanted to increase economic growth: “funding” and “investments” were mentioned every 240 characters.

Now some empiricism. Consider that almost all tech companies “in the tails” were not started by “funding”. Take companies you are familiar with: Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook. These companies started with risk-taking. Funding came in small amounts, way later.

Now let us take the idea to its next logical step. The minute something called a “business plan” is created, the idea is corrupt and the BS start dominating. People start thinking in terms of other people’s perception of the business, for “raising cash. Like prostitutes.

We can generalize to economic growth. The problem is that these discussions of “growth” are made by people who have never taken risks.

What is needed? 1) determination, 2) sophistication, 3) authenticity, 4) convexity and above all, 5) risk loving.

PS- Someone wanted to start an academic research center; his aim was to have a structure, a business plan, get research grants, etc. Then do research. I bailed out and did more for a total cost of $1.50, with http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html  (3/21/16)

Belgium, P-Values, Nocera, Saudi PR, DARK Act, Monsanto | Twitter

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@nntaleb The Saudi origins of Belgium’s Islamist threat http://wpo.st/NMlO1   Permalink 4:59 PM – 23 Mar 2016

@nntaleb There is a video see feed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0   @NathanBiddle Permalink 6:47 AM – 23 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Two works in my mailbox: One Formulation of size and fragility http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2741198&download=yes   One Book on Antifragility http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-30070-2   Permalink 6:13 AM – 23 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Here is the video on the metadistribution of p-values https://youtu.be/8qrfSh07rT0   and the text is here: http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   Permalink 7:55 PM – 22 Mar 2016

@davidmoore411 He’s one of few people on the internet who could insult you publicly and you’d still buy his next book. His stuff is that good. @nntaleb Permalink 6:08 PM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb OK, OK, full proof of an exact metadistribution of p-values (covers all hypotheses). Shd I do a video comment? pic.twitter.com/YLuY3UTY1v Permalink 3:21 PM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Syrian Christians behave as Muslims in the East, Christians in the West, & are viewed as Muslims in the West and Christians in the East. Permalink 5:26 AM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Walid Phares is a Christian Lebanese @dandrezner Permalink 4:54 AM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb What is slowing me down w #SkinintheGame is Isocrates’ Silver Rule for Nations: Treat other nations the way you want them to treat you. Permalink 3:26 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Q: Should we intervene more to “help” countries as we brilliantly did in Lybia, Iraq, Syria, Vietnam, Iran (1953)? https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/712014036993499137   Permalink 2:37 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb “Funding” & “Investments” are the last thing you need. All you need: authenticity & risk. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153701042473375   pic.twitter.com/lMyA1wTQ56 Permalink 2:34 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@cdipaola62 @nntaleb @NoceraNYT Definition of Irony- A writer named “Nocera” finds discussion of Primum non Nocere, unintelligible Permalink 1:47 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Actually, from his name John of Damascus was not Syrian/Aramaic, but likely to be an Arab (*Yahya* Ibn Sarjun, not Yuhanan) @iandavidmorris Permalink 1:38 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb 9 days is nothing. There is the 2005 pre-crisis discussion of my skepticism of models that will eventually be re-opened. @NoceraNYT Permalink 10:29 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb It is called “first do no harm”, avoid “policies with side effects” (primum non nocere) translated: “no nocere, Nocera” @robert_cookson Permalink 10:09 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb If you have trouble understanding this, you really have problems. @robert_cookson http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-12/nassim-taleb-sums-americas-election-17-black-swan-words   Permalink 9:57 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb A journo who says “unintelligible” reveals more about his intellect than the intelligibility of the subject matter https://twitter.com/noceranyt/status/708650770380546049   Permalink 9:36 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Thanks to Scott Robeson, this is the expected pseudo-significant results <5% for true p-value @indianaclimate pic.twitter.com/sZ1863QyzA Permalink 8:05 AM – 20 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Friends, the metadistribution of p-values: rewrote, looking for mistakes bef publ on ArXiv. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   pic.twitter.com/hn25LnI37C Permalink 6:08 AM – 20 Mar 2016

@nntaleb For all his defects, more pple would like to become Trump (yacht/American dream) rather than some reasonable-sounding hack criticizing him. Permalink 3:05 PM – 19 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The more efficient you try to be at a given task, the more you will hate it. Permalink 3:51 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@lhfang New Saudi PR effort SAPRAC led by guy who recently helped regime smear Nimr al-Nimr, gov critic they executed. pic.twitter.com/9IbCNKDxFz Permalink 2:08 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb A 3% significance is really 16% @pehr_bjornbom @antitrustly @ReneMaric pic.twitter.com/ZcQdCggnmf Permalink 12:31 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Real-world rigor (Feynman-like): bring mathematics to deeply understood problems, don’t take deeply understood mathematics to problems. Permalink 12:00 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb To get a real p-val of 5% you need 1.1%; 5% is ~ 26% https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/p-val.pdf   @antitrustly @ReneMaric @BrianNosek pic.twitter.com/EHXHV4xVvZ Permalink 11:33 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@yaneerbaryam Military strategy in a complex world — how antifragility undermines traditional military strategies http://www.necsi.edu/research/military/strategy.html   @nntaleb Permalink 10:08 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Why didn’t anyone pull out the “p-value” of the “p-value” before? @ReneMaric @BrianNosek Permalink 5:46 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Only solution: it you “really” want a p-value of .05, require .0125! @BrianNosek @ReneMaric Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb I mean p-values are random variables that do not necessarily reflect statistical significance. I can’t find in lit. @ReneMaric @BrianNosek Permalink 5:26 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Why aren’t psychologists (@BrianNosek) aware that p-values have HUGE sampling error? #replicationcrisis https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/p-val.pdf   Permalink 5:19 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb typos pic.twitter.com/z9BQiLlsQp Permalink 6:41 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb On plane proof p-values are extremely random/volatile & explicit variance as function of n. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/p-val.pdf   pic.twitter.com/IYIN215S3a Permalink 6:34 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Evidence based? That is ignorant BS. Anti-GMO is scientific scrutiny. https://twitter.com/NinjaEconomics/status/710263345153093632   Permalink 6:08 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Experiment: Farro w/ squid ink. pic.twitter.com/Qzzkxud18w Permalink 5:18 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb People are so concerned about my age. pic.twitter.com/JHXlNBinkr Permalink 3:57 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Victory! Senate Rejects the DARK Act http://ecowatch.com/2016/03/16/senate-rejects-dark-act-gmo-labeling/   via ecowatch Permalink 2:19 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb This is the kind of BS people clueless about tail risk utter. Farmers’ modifications belong to a narrow basin. https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/710093894847959040   Permalink 1:45 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic: when in a hotel for the very first time, reject the first room they give you. Permalink 5:49 AM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Monsanto forces farmers to bear all the liability for its seeds, making itself immune to adverse consequences. pic.twitter.com/khRh3Sff1J Permalink 1:48 AM – 15 Mar 2016

Black Swan Review | Lexaholik.com

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Reader Alex passed along his recent The Black Swan book review.

Why Do You Recommend This Book?

The Black Swan made me realize that living a carefully planned out life is a mistake. I remember after I first read the book at the now-closed Borders on Michigan Ave in Chicago while I was still in law school. Afterwards, I walked around outside dazed and confused, and feeling like I’d been living my life all wrong.

What was in the book?

A lot of information, actually, but everything sort of revolves around just a few core principles that stick with me to this day:

  • The events with the greatest impact in your life (Black Swans) are unexpected;
  • They are unexpected because of a variety of cognitive biases; and
  • No matter how hard we try, we will fail to predict these consequential events.

Think back to the biggest events in the U.S. of the past few decades. We’re talking about things like the Internet becoming popular, the terrorist attacks on 9/11, or the Global Financial Crisis. None of these things were expected or predicted. If you read books/articles these days, they all describe a linear history where these things were expected to happen. There’s a ton of hindsight bias in written history, and Taleb gives us more specific details as to why.

Link to full review: http://www.lexaholik.com/black-swan-the-impact-of-the-highly-improbable-review/

SOUL IN THE GAME, Real World Risk, Rebellion, Voting to Destroy the Establishment | Facebook

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Reader: “Dear N., I have read all your books and have a question. How do you recommend an average young man navigate the modern world? “.

Me: “Never ask a vague question“. (3/13/16)

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SOUL IN THE GAME & THE RISE OF PROTECTIONISM

The rise of protectionism may have a strong rationale. One fundamental flaw with economic thinking is that humans are assumed to be doing things to make a living and improve their economic condition. This is partially true. But people are also doing things for existential reasons. We may be better off economically (in the aggregate) by exporting jobs. But that’s not what people may really want.

I write because that’s what I am designed to do –and subcontracting my research and writing to China or Tunisia would (perhaps) increase my productivity but deprive me of my identity.

So people might want to *do* things. Just to do things, because they feel it is part of their identity. It may be cruel to cheat them of that. They too want to play. They want to have their soul in the game.

Bureaucrats don’t get it because they don’t do things.

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NOTE I: More technically, it is erroneous to think that one necessarily has to “maximize” income if one seeks it (economists used naive mathematics in their optimization programs and thinking). It is perfectly compatible to “satisfice” their wealth, that is, shoot for a satisfactory income, plus maximize one’s fitness to the task, or the emotional pride they may have in seeing the fruits of their labor. Or not maximize anything, just do things because that is what makes us human.

NOTE II: TK. (3/12/16)

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Announcement: Our next Real World Risk (Taking) Mini-Certificate is June 6-10, Princeton Club in NYC.

Comments by the previous class found on social media:

http://www.realworldrisk.com/inaugural_program_comments

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What we are seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking “clerks” and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think… and 5) who to vote for.

With psychology papers replicating less than 40%, dietary advice reversing after 30y of fatphobia, macroeconomic analysis working worse than astrology, microeconomic papers wrong 40% of the time, the appointment of Bernanke who was less than clueless of the risks, and pharmaceutical trials replicating only 1/5th of the time, people are perfectly entitled to rely on their own ancestral instinct and listen to their grandmothers with a better track record than these policymaking goons.

Indeed one can see that these academico-bureaucrats wanting to run our lives aren’t even rigorous, whether in medical statistics or policymaking. I have shown that most of what Cass-Sunstein-Richard Thaler types call “rational” or “irrational” comes from misunderstanding of probability theory. (3/9/16)

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The *establishment* composed of journos, BS-Vending talking heads with well-formulated verbs, bureaucrato-cronies, lobbyists-in training, New Yorker-reading semi-intellectuals, image-conscious empty suits, Washington rent-seekers and other “well thinking” members of the vocal elites are not getting the point about what is happening and the sterility of their arguments. People are not voting for Trump (or Sanders). People are just voting, finally, to destroy the establishment. (3/7/16)