The Secret of Fatima

Leave a reply

The Secret of Fatima
5.0 out of 5 stars James Bond as a Catholic Priest, April 5, 2016
Review By
N N Taleb
This review is from: The Secret of Fatima (Kindle Edition)
Masterly! This is the page turner par excellence; every new page brings some surprise and it was impossible for me to put the book down. I even read some of it during elevator rides, not being able to resist. And truly sophisticated: Nobody but Peter Tanous would have imagined to cross James Bond with a Catholic priest.”

HatTip to Dave Lull

How To Legally Own Another Person – Evonomics

Leave a reply

In its early phase, as the church was starting to get established in Europe, there was a group of itinerant people called the gyrovagues. They were gyrating and roaming monks without any affiliation to any institution. Theirs was a free-lance (and ambulatory) variety of monasticism, and their order was sustainable as the members lived off begging and from the good graces of townsmen who took interest in them. It is a weak form of sustainability, as one can hardly call sustainable a group of a people with vows of celibacy: they cannot grow organically and would need continuous enrollment. But their members managed to survive thanks to help from the population, which provided them with food and temporary shelter.

Source: How To Legally Own Another Person – Evonomics

P Values, Deadlift, Precautionary Principle, Trump, Virtue, Kapish?

Leave a reply

@nntaleb In high frequ quant finance we use >10^6 data points & nobody knows pvalue. Psychologists trying to get away with 10https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/717366620331618304   Permalink 7:02 PM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Normal humans can learn from Iraq and Lybia. Journalism became the last refuge for those with brain defects.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/717880860066856960   Permalink 6:56 PM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My Skin in the Game WIPhttps://twitter.com/evonomicsmag/status/717556674559668224   Permalink 4:03 AM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Por primera vez, texto en español [Bogota]https://twitter.com/luiscano/status/717442396473135104   Permalink 2:54 PM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb To paraphrase Yogi Bera, 90% of deadlifting is mental; the other half is physical. Permalink 8:13 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Meanwhile a 80% power for a test and 5% p-value aren’t science.Pick a large n & fughedaoudit http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf  pic.twitter.com/SUMZ6zCBeA Permalink 8:01 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Instead of risking Max deadlift, easier to figure it out from max{lbs: 3 reps <=failure}. @Pete_Spence @georgepearkes Permalink 6:43 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb in lbs of course. Permalink 6:32 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What is the max deadlift for a noncompetitive flaneur like me (adj. by age group) that would be considered decent? Permalink 6:29 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@esalazar_y There are only two people missing #Seneca and #FatTony @nntalebpic.twitter.com/aojYNa4QNk Permalink 6:37 PM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Precautionary Principle Simplified: Started rewriting @yaneerbaryam @normonics @RupertReadpic.twitter.com/i12VkJn8WC Permalink 11:40 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@kupiako @nntaleb @DontFadeeMeBro And his father died in 1999 Permalink 7:28 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Main diff betw. Trump and Fat Tony: 1) His FatToniness doesn’t like publicity, 2) Fat Tony wouldn’t marry a model.https://twitter.com/UncleDario1/status/716995760181616641   Permalink 7:30 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Also Trump had 4 siblings. @DontFadeeMeBro Permalink 7:26 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I only trust people who don’t care about their reputation. Virtue ethics is about acts of virtue even if they come with negative reward. Permalink 7:25 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb That is a myth about Trump’s inheritance. Work the numbers of cohort of others who have inherited.https://twitter.com/gweirydd/status/716993004096077824   Permalink 7:20 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal: Rediscovers scaling laws, how fragility increases with size.pic.twitter.com/55uXlT5XwD Permalink 7:15 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal (p. 305): Politicians sh**t scared of the press.pic.twitter.com/ZwM5grWlsV Permalink 7:11 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal (pp. 282-283): How consultants & executives don’t hold a candle to someone w/ #SITGpic.twitter.com/24nofJ5AcN Permalink 7:08 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “To me, committees are what insecure people create in order to put off making hard decisions.” Trump: The Art of the Deal (p. 281) Permalink 7:05 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My hobby is busting bullshitters @iandavidmorris, a la Feynman: “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts”https://twitter.com/Priapus_D/status/716972631925387264   Permalink 6:04 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The fellow did not break the truth: comments in prnthss which is NOT standard but NOT unethical. Kapish? @semperfidem2004 @iandavidmorris Permalink 3:04 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In real science it is not about whether the scientist has the right standards; it is about his THEORY. Kapish? @homophonous @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:19 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) which is why Lux.’s theory is a valid hunch; disproofs are unrigorous w/absence of evidence fallacies. @joebradfordnet @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:08 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1/Every Arabic speaker who had to memorize poetry knows that pre-Islamic vocabulary is v. different from Q. @joebradfordnet @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:05 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@republicofmath MT @MathFour Engineers think equations approx reality. Physicists think reality approx equations. Mathematicians know equations are reality Permalink 11:31 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) So in spite of his solecism I find him closer to the SUBSTANCE of the subject matter than your elaborate nitpicking @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:40 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) As I said he knew enough Syriac to have detected the problem and confused Payne Smith for his daughter’s translation. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:38 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb His “sparkle” is in Payne. Check again. Attacking someone’s thesis on his etiquette is failing us: we care about the truth @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:20 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Finally, in my world (science, search for truth), scholarship is about SUBSTANCE, not trifles. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:16 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What makes me doubt your scholarship is that the fact that you did not check if the language was from Payne, not his own. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:15 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You are conflating breach of ethics & breach of the etiquette of a research milieu. By nitpicking, you reinforced his thesis.@iandavidmorris Permalink 11:56 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 If it weren’t for Obama, Shillary Clinton wd have transformed Damascus into an AlQaeda or ISIS Base. Keep her on the lecture circuit. Permalink 9:33 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We need to keep Shillary out of the White House. Whatever it takes, even if it means having a robot as president.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/716644245977899008   Permalink 9:24 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary: Anything that has an infinite (or “long”) shelf life (i.e. “sustainable”) falls under Precautionary Pple.pic.twitter.com/55pwCgaJM0 Permalink 6:55 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I think I got the p-hacking distribution & given no outcry by psych trolls it isn’t a “rediscovery”. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   @learnfromerror Permalink 3:13 PM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nobody can explain why the neocons are buying that Saudi Barbaria is helping Syria to become democratic. Is neocon a result of brain damage? Permalink 2:45 PM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If all progress is innovation, all innovation is not progress. As a matter of fact, 99.9% of innovations fail. @sarah_cone @uistbhoy88 Permalink 9:39 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The problem with architecture is that hotshot architects try to impress other architects and we are left paying the price. #noskininthegame Permalink 7:52 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Rainy Saturday: density of the preimage of the power of test. Concavity of measure, mean is lower than orig powerpic.twitter.com/mKd3T2CyNR Permalink 7:49 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Sadly, when a gentle, low-testosterone looking person promotes peace, he is much less convincing than a warrior-looking bully. Permalink 6:45 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The problem with architecture is that, unlike with fashion, music or cinema, fads leave a permanent scar. Permalink 4:59 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This summer I want to learn a new language. Which sequence is preferable? (Urdu as proxy for Hindi for script). Permalink 2:49 PM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Metadistribution: The dist of the pre-image of a power of a test. In other words, Power is as BS as P-Value.pic.twitter.com/xAGvyuqmjk Permalink 1:08 PM – 1 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms You know you’re a sectarian fraud when you say Assad must go for humanitarian reasons while cheering the Saudi-led carpet-bombing in Yemen. Permalink 2:24 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb P-value is a stochastic measure. Stochastic measures are not measures. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   @dsquareddigest Permalink 11:11 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fixed! @SandrewFinancepic.twitter.com/fWj8wc5z5F Permalink 11:01 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Connecting the Precautionary PPle to Peters and Gell-Mann(2015); something MISSED by the idiots in decision theory.pic.twitter.com/sOplMWr1we Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We are reframing the MINI CERTIFICATE IN RISK TAKING as risk management is back office, risk taking is front office. http://realworldrisk.com/inaugural_program_comments   Permalink 8:11 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@garyruskin Then: #Monsanto hid the truth about PCBs http://bit.ly/1C6Gupx  . Now: Monsanto says “Roundup Is Not A Carcinogen” http://wbur.fm/1MZz35R   Permalink 6:12 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary of philosophical approach to the inverse problem (in Silent Risk).pic.twitter.com/Sw3BQt1kvW Permalink 6:05 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The precautionary principle papers: No, there is no *scientific* evidence “GMO” are safe http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  pic.twitter.com/d08P8gYtLr Permalink 4:25 AM – 1 Apr 2016

Albert Tarantola, Slowthinkers, Monsanto, Macrobullshit, Microbullshit | Twitter

Leave a reply

@nntaleb The late Albert Tarantola wrote the entry. His book on Inverse problem statistics is free: http://www.ipgp.fr/~tarantola/Files/Professional/Books/index.html   pic.twitter.com/DA2nb0DXt1 Permalink 2:52 PM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb I discovered today that psychologists “statisticians” & other slowthinkers are not familiar Inverse Problems. http://mathworld.wolfram.com/InverseProblem.html   Permalink 2:44 PM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Turns out Scientific American @sciam is a Monsanto shill! This is the worst damage to the core of scientific trust! http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/monsanto-scientific-american_us_56fc41d7e4b083f5c606a649   Permalink 11:28 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Anyway coming up with a theorem and will let Lakens boy argue with the theorem. @deaneckles @CookieSci @JoeHilgard @lakens Permalink 11:20 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Things are starting to be funning with the replicating goons: The “power” of a test is a random variable. pic.twitter.com/CDrWQh8MSB Permalink 10:26 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Monsanto’s media machine comes to Washington http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/monsanto-scientific-american_us_56fc41d7e4b083f5c606a649   via @HuffPostPol Permalink 8:30 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Bullshit https://twitter.com/lakens/status/715398204494221314   Permalink 5:24 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Another one in a Donaldo denial. https://twitter.com/Limeylizzie/status/715339307574292480   Permalink 8:01 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Daily expression of hope that Donaldo is NOT for real, just “temporary”. Yet to me Laura is top 3 jrns in the world. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/715359302567993346   Permalink 7:11 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Ahamm te3li2 ijitne min wa2t tawil. Lani7faz turasna w aslna. https://twitter.com/menleben/status/715358032411107328   Permalink 7:04 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Ahamm shi la bilad shem nitrok el lijneh el 3arabiye, nsour mitl Malta samiyyin bass b3ad 3an el 3arab. Sh3b tene. Ne7na Aramyiyye Permalink 6:55 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Lishano siryoyo ma7zito d’omto d ilan r7imto Permalink 6:43 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Mr @lakens take your time to explain why since my eq. 1 is so trivially know why didn’t you use it in your Open Science replication project? Permalink 2:42 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Per measurement not per ensemble of measurements @gvpathi Permalink 1:50 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Mathematical results have a p=0, physics overall p< 10^-10, negative empiricism/logic p=0, the rest are largely bullshit, prefer humanities. Permalink 1:33 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Latest version is here http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/715269562862804994   Permalink 1:11 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb P-Value paper now ~ cleared through the “was done before” trolls: we have an exact metadist and p-hacking bias. pic.twitter.com/uc18mhd493 Permalink 1:08 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb This paper has every single error, missing that in-sample measure of extreme events is downward biased. https://twitter.com/carney/status/715258655017418754   Permalink 12:33 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@chaslutz @DrFrankWilson @EconTalker I hate CAF too, but this is bad stats as @nntaleb has said: right comparison is to burglaries PREVENTED by police Permalink 12:28 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb It is easier to macrobullshit than microbullshit: for the news ignore geopolitics & finance journos; only crime reporters know theit stuff Permalink 10:04 AM – 30 Mar 2016

@TalebBot Executive programs allow us to watch people who have never worked lecturing those who have never pondered. Permalink 7:20 PM – 29 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms Was the pounding the Syrian & Russian militaries handed ISIS in Palmyra a big PR stunt as described in the media? Permalink 4:08 PM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb At the bottom, psychologists want to be treated as “scientists”. Alas, in my world they don’t exist. @Blacklabellogic @GordPennycook @lakens Permalink 2:49 PM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Frankly I don’t consider psychological handwaving as a source of rigorous mathematical results @GordPennycook @lakens Permalink 1:53 PM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb When someone is looking for antecedents for a result, announcing “this is what I teach my undergrads” when isn’t true. @Heinonmatti @lakens Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Daniel Lakens, your behavior w.r.t. antecedence is silly, unscientific, & ignorant. @lakens @AndrewPGrieve Permalink 3:00 AM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Mediterraneans fast, eat no breakfast, small dinner, and walk up down hills. Diet studies aren’t rigorous. https://twitter.com/erlesen/status/714577237459210240   Permalink 3:22 PM – 28 Mar 2016

Nice/Nasty, Inequality, SITG, P-Hacking, Easter, Syria, Palmyra, Shillary, Trump, Saunders | Twitter

Leave a reply

@nntaleb My rule: when people are nice, I am twice as nice to them. When nasty, a thousand times nastier. @lakens @sothisispietro Permalink 11:44 AM – 28 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Friends, need to find errors in this paper before posting on ArXiv. Busts current measurement of inequality https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/GINI-1.pdf   Permalink 7:49 AM – 28 Mar 2016

@nntaleb DC pundits stick to minor variations around a (false) narrative, owing to lack of 1)courage,2) #skininthegame, 3) IQ https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/714422281372639232   Permalink 5:10 AM – 28 Mar 2016

@nntaleb You start by gratuitously trolling me saying you taught undergrads my meta-dist (you didn’t) & now you think you could be “helpful”? @lakens Permalink 4:44 AM – 28 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Donaldo, minor detail: this is not quite ISIS; nevertheless you will do better than Shillary. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/714264864575922177   Permalink 6:49 PM – 27 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Pulled out the explicit “p-hacking” formula. New version of paper. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   pic.twitter.com/0gRwP7jhQw Permalink 4:12 PM – 27 Mar 2016

@adolfont The wise approach to markets is to consider them smarter than governments yet profoundly stupid… @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/IUBOFaN0dO Permalink 12:26 PM – 27 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms .@octavianasr The media did even worse job covering Syria conflict than the decision to remove Saddam; on Syria, it had access to more info. Permalink 7:53 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Happy Easter for those who celebrate now. The Orthodox Church will celebrate in 5 weeks. pic.twitter.com/x2VQl1layy Permalink 7:35 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms It’s been so lonely over Twitter the past few years getting accused of being a troll for stating the basic facts on Syria. Thanks #Palmyra. Permalink 6:20 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms Which pundits get the most (dis)credit for convincing Western media the Syrian & Russian militaries are in cahoots with IS & don’t fight IS? Permalink 5:53 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@PieterDuboisFI @nntaleb-isation of software development https://twitter.com/BetaList/status/714047126892843009   Permalink 5:15 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@aarondwarwick @nntaleb thanks for pointing us to @MaxAbrahms a couple months ago. Top notch! Permalink 4:55 PM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Nobody is talking about the exciting news of ISIS thrown out of Palmyra. Why? Alas easy to figure out. Permalink 4:53 PM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb ”Sometimes your best investments are the ones you don’t make.” Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal Permalink 3:15 PM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb And instead of playing smart ass as a scientist you could have answer led my quest for the search of antecedents @lakens Permalink 9:46 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Where is the probability distribution? An equation is usually an equation with derivations. @lakens Permalink 9:33 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb And I am taking about rigorous probability theory not handwaving looping psychological discourse. @lakens Permalink 9:24 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Mr lakens i am talking about exact metadistibution of p-val. @lakens This is clear and precise. Show me. Permalink 9:22 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb You still need to back up your accusation of claiming to “reinvent” pval dist before asking more questions.@lakens https://twitter.com/lakens/status/713758346973679616   Permalink 9:15 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The US president cannot change much except foreign interventionism. Incl taxes. Kapish? @sleuthstock @BernieSanders Permalink 8:14 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb This said I far prefer @BernieSanders to Trump but absolutely no Hillary. No Hillary, no SHillary. Permalink 7:44 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Reading Trump all I see is protect your downside (unknown) risks. What’s behind the bluster is Fat Tony compatible. pic.twitter.com/6OyroXQ8qc Permalink 7:35 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms Loving the spin to minimize Syrian/Russian military achievements against ISIS: https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/713709476830797825  . Permalink 7:13 AM – 26 Mar 2016