Published on Jan 22, 2017
Nassim Nicholas Taleb introduced by David McWilliams
Of Black Swans and Intellectual Fallacies | ZEE Jaipur Literature Festival 2017
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The Facts are True, the News is Fake | Medium
The Facts are True, the News is Fake
How to Disagree with Yourself
The Ethics of Disagreement
Now let us get deeper into the application of the Silver Rule in intellectual debates. You can criticize either what a person said or what the person meant. The former is more sensational, hence lends itself more readily to dissemination. The mark of a charlatan –say the journalist Sam Harris –is to defend his position or attack a critic by focusing on some of his/her specific statement (“look at what he said”) rather than blasting his exact position (“look at what he means” or, more broadly, “look at what he stands for”), the latter of which requires an extensive grasp of the proposed idea. Note that the same applies to the interpretation of religious texts, often extracted from their broader circumstances.
Only The Rich Are Poisoned: The Preference of Others | Medium
Only The Rich Are Poisoned: The Preference of Others
The salesman is the boss — How to drink poison — Advertising and manipulation
Very few people understand their own choices, and end up being manipulated by those who want to sell them something. In that sense, impoverishment might be something desirable. Looking at Saudi Arabia which should progressively revert to the pre-oil level of poverty, I wonder if Vauvenargues would tell them that taking away some things from them –and the swarm of fawning foreigners coming to skin them –will make them better off.
To put it another way: if wealth is giving you fewer options instead of more (and more varied) options, you’re doing it wrong …
Economists, Fake News, Turkish Lira, IQ, MY Planet, Kapish, Grandmothers, Neo-Stalinism, Umberto Eco’s Library | Twitter
@nntaleb Terms for the heinous s.a. “Nazi”,”racist”,”Hitler” get debased/corrupted over time,similar to the historical debasement of coins/currencies Permalink 12:35 PM – 13 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Added paragraph on how in Mediterranean news circulates through gatherings: mostly funerals.https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2#.k66ii4azv Permalink 7:56 AM – 13 Mar 2017
@nntaleb I will from now on call economists “the wrongest profession”, w/attribution. @schmittpaula Permalink 7:44 AM – 13 Mar 2017
@nntaleb An illustration of how economists market the idea that if you do not believe in their unscientific BS, you are against “knowledge”.https://twitter.com/Aligarciaherrer/status/841091830427074560 Permalink 6:21 AM – 13 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Thing I learned today. From this sign: 1) Georgian script is written left to right. 2) Unlike Semitic scr it has explicit vowels. pic.twitter.com/Xj4z9oBjHE Permalink 1:57 PM – 12 Mar 2017
@nntaleb I just published “The Facts are True, the News is Fake”https://medium.com/p/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2 Permalink 10:48 AM – 12 Mar 2017
@nntaleb For your book to be read in 20y, make sure content is 1) important for people today, 2) was also important 20 y ago. #Lindy @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 8:53 AM – 12 Mar 2017
@nntaleb The continuous & severe secular devaluation of the Turkish lira (USD-TRL) maps one-to-one to the devaluation of the terms “nazi” & “fascist” Permalink 6:16 AM – 12 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Nothing.https://twitter.com/NinjaEconomics/status/840797531479015427 Permalink 5:57 AM – 12 Mar 2017
@nntaleb The argument is that they know they can be harmed by price fixing as they may lose a job/ not get one. @spencerrs34 Permalink 6:22 PM – 11 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 2) Those affected by a minimum wage are those who earn currently below it and risk losing a job. Markets are Markets. Permalink 3:52 PM – 11 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Skin in the Game: Let the unemployed & those earning below some threshold decide on minimum wage, not some virtue signaling bureaucrat. Permalink 3:46 PM – 11 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 8) One has to unlearn comparing probabilistic situations w/functions using “average” except under mean-field #Antifragile & @yaneerbaryam Permalink 11:56 AM – 11 Mar 2017
@mikeandallie A math exploration via an interesting integral posted by Nassim Taleb: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/03/11/a-math-exploration-via-an-interesting-integral-from-nassim-taleb/ #math #mathchat cc: @nntaleb Permalink 7:28 AM – 11 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Mr Josh Barro, @jbarro do you have any other expertise than selling BS? Permalink 7:10 AM – 11 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 7) I put “IQ” in “” as I don’t believe that measured IQ includes ability to tinker aggressively, real IQ for me. #GreenLumber #AntiFragile Permalink 7:04 AM – 11 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 6) A more technical discussion from scratchpad: Why the Tail is a different business, the more we go in the tails, the less the mean counts. pic.twitter.com/ufvpkJmEGL Permalink 6:43 AM – 11 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 5) In fact I simplified a bit. Popul. success depends on distribution of tails, Extr. Value Distribution. Discussed in book w/ @DrCirillo Permalink 6:28 AM – 11 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 4) This threshold phenomena is NECESSARY in the presence of winner-take-all in scientific & economic success (s. a. Pareto 80/20). Permalink 6:21 AM – 11 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 3) I wd fight w/baseball bat for @charlesmurray ‘s right of speech, but this central flaw was missed by his idiotic detractors. #middleburry Permalink 6:18 AM – 11 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 2) This in short explains why linking IQ to success for populations is total nonsense in the presence of nonlinearity. pic.twitter.com/sMeLFdWWlx Permalink 6:16 AM – 11 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 1) Assuming “IQ” helps success; the performance of a population would depend >>more on the variance than average. (convexity, #Antifragile) Permalink 6:09 AM – 11 Mar 2017
@nntaleb “First, do no harm” is Lindy-compatible (2500 y.o.) @normonics @GuruAnaerobic Permalink 3:20 PM – 10 Mar 2017
@nntaleb The libertarian version is to consider harm to the environment as harm against MY planet.http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2988742/apolloearth_a_wake_up_call_in_our_race_against_time.html Permalink 9:00 AM – 10 Mar 2017
@nntaleb OK, OK.https://twitter.com/realistgrower/status/840027938162540544 Permalink 8:55 AM – 10 Mar 2017
@nntaleb For those into integration, a difficult integral.http://math.stackexchange.com/q/2180737/88078?stw=2 Permalink 7:45 AM – 10 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Electricians, barbers, gardeners, surgeons, tango dancers, are experts. Not economists. How do we know who’s expert?https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.bf46qtuzd Permalink 5:53 AM – 10 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Who is still reading you, I may ask? @NoceraBV Permalink 6:37 PM – 9 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Pseudo-experts (pol “scientists”, econs, journos) are making our disrespect for charlatans look like disrespect for all expert. Stop them.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/839973967624458240 Permalink 6:31 PM – 9 Mar 2017
@nntaleb I will NEVER write for Foreign Affairs again. Imbeciles.https://twitter.com/ForeignAffairs/status/839966563209973761 Permalink 2:59 PM – 9 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Olive oil, etc. @startupdaemon Permalink 11:20 AM – 9 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Oddity du jour: Constantinople, unlike Rome (& Antioch, Alexandria,& Athens) doesn’t have a Mediterranean climate. Permalink 7:03 AM – 9 Mar 2017
@nntaleb The formal difference between press & propaganda is unconditional & indiscriminate detraction or unconditional & indiscriminate support. Permalink 5:40 AM – 9 Mar 2017
@NewAlbrecht Continuing parade of people seeking to correct @nntaleb’s spelling of capisce (Kapish) is fascinating. Permalink 1:45 PM – 6 Mar 2017
@nntaleb The rule is: Use “BUT” as a logical operator, not to seek protection from consequences of your opinion. Kapish? @learnfromerror Permalink 12:56 PM – 6 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Typical wussiness: “I do not support Trump, but…” “I support Obama, but…” “I don’t always agree w/this *egomaniac* Taleb, but…” Permalink 12:25 PM – 6 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 3) In Antifragile, I explain that if the condition is mild, IGNORE doctor (grandmother is to distract). If severe, go to doctor. @SawsaGa Permalink 6:36 AM – 6 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 2) In medicine & tech domains, there are grounds to ignore the grandmother. In what relates to human nature (psychology), Lindy. @SawsaGa Permalink 6:31 AM – 6 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 1) There is a bias: grandmothers’ iatrogenics are seen, not those of medicine. I will be making a tableau. @SawsaGa Permalink 6:30 AM – 6 Mar 2017
@nntaleb So asking your grandmother beats these “scientists” any minute. Or Montaigne. Lindy explained in my link https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.h2ikeddwu https://twitter.com/BrianNosek/status/838742797742190592 Permalink 5:39 AM – 6 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Nohttps://twitter.com/GTCost/status/838567117150535682 Permalink 6:12 PM – 5 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Anything people say before the “but” 1) doesn’t count, 2) is a sign of weakness & should be avoided in straightforward prose.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/838480429732806656 Permalink 12:12 PM – 5 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Pareto on the Intellectual Yet Idiots why they make bad rulers @Maximilian_H1 pic.twitter.com/GkzUxLj2u3 Permalink 8:32 AM – 5 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Added a comment explaining the Salafi danger to the Chapter on Asymmetries w Minorities https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.a0mrs2gq9 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6YTPk6Omqk”> pic.twitter.com/6YTPk6Omqk Permalink 8:03 AM – 5 Mar 2017
@nntaleb “Mis.” stand for “misattributed to”. What did you think it represented? @rsjanabasis Permalink 6:23 AM – 5 Mar 2017
@nntaleb “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to death your RIGHT to say it”(mis.Voltaire) but if you use violence to repress MY right… Permalink 6:10 AM – 5 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Banko detected the common mistake by IYIs is to think that one cannot write original science in a nonacademic, literary format.https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/838264746222702592 Permalink 4:49 AM – 5 Mar 2017
@nntaleb The double imbecile Yglesias wants to repress @charlesmurray ‘s free speech w/violence then calls him Hitler. Double Imbecile. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/838099996461436930 Permalink 5:18 PM – 4 Mar 2017
@nntaleb They are looking at criminals… who were caught, no?https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/838058140612493312 Permalink 9:09 AM – 4 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 2) These idiots from CNN didn’t get the point. pic.twitter.com/I1VTaTdK1Y Permalink 6:30 AM – 4 Mar 2017
@nntaleb I just published “Only The Rich Are Poisoned: The Preference of Others”https://medium.com/p/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68 Permalink 6:07 AM – 4 Mar 2017
@nntaleb There is no charm in becoming the establishment.https://twitter.com/TruthHawkLive/status/837945176605741057 Permalink 4:24 AM – 4 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Neo-Stalinism.https://twitter.com/charlesmurray/status/837675287445929984 Permalink 7:05 PM – 3 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Representation of the inequality @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/zDzvqiO9g5 Permalink 6:03 PM – 3 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Different angles: Proof that a picture is worth 1024 equations @CutTheKnotMath @Taitamco pic.twitter.com/UuUw1GAQZc Permalink 1:35 PM – 3 Mar 2017
@nntaleb My visit to Umberto Eco’s library. His library looked like a library, but he didn’t look like an author. https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52#.gy9xyrq0r ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/BqJaGP2DI5″> pic.twitter.com/BqJaGP2DI5 Permalink 8:25 AM – 3 Mar 2017
Continuous Time Election Forecasting | Youtube
Published on Feb 27, 2017
Uses a continuous time process to price an election; we end up with an option-stule pricing. The martigale approach optimizes the Brier score.
The corresponding paper is here: How to Predict an Election (pdf)