Journalists understanding of risk is so backwards that they would put the security checks after the plane ride.
Journalists understanding of risk is so backwards that they would put the securi…
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Category Archives: Feeds
My Soapbox Advice to the OWS Movement and then some « blog maverick
Shared by JohnH
This is from entrepreneur Mark Cuban, weighing in on the OWS movement!
You see, in the real business world there is always a trade off between risk, reward and the law of unintended consequences. If we have learned anything from the past 12 years it should be that black swan events happen more frequently than we like and that the law of unintended consequences has a far greater negative impact than business as usual has a positive impact.
The Problem is Beyond Psychology: The Real World is More Random than Regression Analyses by Nassim Taleb, Daniel Goldstein :: SSRN
The Problem is Beyond Psychology: The Real World is More Random than Regression Analyses
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
NYU-Poly
Daniel G. Goldstein
London Business School
International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Abstract:
Where the problem is not expert underestimation of randomness, but more: the tools themselves used in regression analyses and similar methods underestimate fat tails, hence the randomness in the data. We should avoid imparting psychological explanations to errors in the use of statistical methods.
[Updated: The Problem is Beyond Psychology 2012]
The Third Law of Social Science: if you hear an idea that makes sense to you att…
The Third Law of Social Science: if you hear an idea that makes sense to you attributed to an economist, it had to be stolen from a philosopher.
(example: “creative destruction”, not Schumpeter but Nietzsche, etc.)
The Second Law of Social Science: the less relevant, applicable, or interesting…
The Second Law of Social Science: the less relevant, applicable, or interesting the point, the larger the number of publications around it.