Which brings us to the celebrated bird whose shadow falls over his book, the “Black Swan”: those extreme, outlier events that defy augury, and which Nassim Nicholas Taleb hunted down in his book of that name. Silver’s Bayesian recipes work best in data-systems where Black Swans can never strike. Indeed, it was notable how, after Superstorm Sandy hit with all its Black Swan fury, the FiveThirtyEight blog sought to deny that this rampant outlier of a tempest could sway many voters at all.
It would be an error to set up Taleb simply as the nemesis of Silver. The latter seeks to help us make better forecasts. The former, as his forthcoming book Antifragile will argue, offers ways to think and act that embrace risk and surf uncertainty, whatever the strength of any prediction. Nonetheless, I would love to see the pair debate. What are the chances of that?
via Boyd Tonkin: US election was a good night for the geeks – and a Tunbridge Wells cleric – Features – Books – The Independent.
HatTip to Dave Lull