Never before have I set out to read a book with such high expectations, only to encounter such severe disappointment. As an admirer of Nassim Taleb’s earlier books, Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan, I expected to find insight and wisdom along similar lines in Antifragile. While Taleb’s latest book does contain some valid observations and a few intriguing general strategies for living, the overwhelming thrust of the book is one of bitter distaste for modernity (and, to a significant extent, technological progress), as well as an abundance of insults for anyone who would disagree with not just Taleb’s ideas, but with his personal esthetic preferences. While sensible in the realms of finance and (mostly) economics, Taleb’s prescriptions in other fields venture outside of his realms of mastery and, if embraced, would result in a relapse of the barbarisms of premodernity. Perhaps as the outcome of his own phenomenal success, Taleb has become set in his ways and has transitioned from offering some controversial, revolutionary, and genuinely insightful ideas to constructing a static, intolerant, totalistic worldview that rejects deviations in any field of life – and the persons who so deviate.
Category Archives: Contributors
Full of typos, but a very concentrated…
Full of typos, but a very concentrated technical demonstration of the need of skin in the game . For comments as I just wrote it quickly. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/skininthegame.pdf
via Full of typos, but a very concentrated… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.
Antifragile Heuristic 34 (Barbell, Jensen’s Inequality)
Antifragile Heuristic 34 (Barbell, Jensen’s Inequality): Underreact most of the time, overreact mercilessly on the occasion, going for the jugular, and people will will leave you alone. Fughetabout “measured” reactions. Be unpredictable.
***
From FBR (2001). “This point has applications in evolutionary biology, evolutionary game theory, and conflict situations. A mild degree of unpredictability in your behavior can help you to protect yourself in situations of conflict. Say you always have the same threshold of reactions. You take a set level of abuse before getting into a rage and punching the offender in the nose. Such predictability will allow people to take advantage of you up to that well-known trigger point and stop there. But if you randomize your trigger point, sometimes overreacting at the slightest joke, people will not know in advance how far they can push you. The same applies to governments in conflicts: They need to convince their adversaries that they are crazy enough to sometimes overreact to a small peccadillo. Even the magnitude of their reaction should be hard to foretell. Unpredictability is a strong deterrent.”
via Antifragile Heuristic 34 (Barbell,… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.
The fool considers that what he doesn’t understand…
The fool considers that what he doesn’t understand is either extremely stupid, or extemely intelligent, pending on how others react to it.
via The fool considers that what he doesn’t… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.
Probability Theory (Courant Lecture Notes): S. R. S.
5.0 out of 5 stars A gem April 28, 2013
By N N Taleb
Format:Paperback
I know which books I value when I end up buying a second copy after losing the first one. This book gives a complete overview of the basis of probability theory with some grounding in measure theory, and presents the main proofs. It is remarkable because of its concision and completeness: visibly prof Varadhan lectured from these notes and kept improving on them until we got this gem. There is not a single sentence too many, yet nothing is missing.
For those who don’t know who he is, Varadhan stands as one of the greatest probabilists of all time. Learning probability from him is like learning from Aristotle.
Varadhan has two other similar volumes one covering stochastic processes the other into the theory of large deviations (though older than this current text). The book on Stochastic Processes should be paired with this one.
HatTip to Dave Lull
via Probability Theory (Courant Lecture Notes): S. R. S. Varadhan: 9780821828526: Amazon.com: Books.