Category Archives: Contributors

Taleb Blasts Bernanke & Greenspan, Warns “Debt Raises The Risk Of Catastrophe” | Zero Hedge

“Debt increases tail-risk,” warns anti-fragility expert Nassim Taleb, “whether it’s personal, corporate, or governmental.” A rise in debt, he warns, implies nothing less than a rise in “the risk of catastrophe,” and Taleb chides,  governments “should be focused in risk-management… instead of creating these risks.” This brief Bloomberg TV clip cuts to the chase as the normally circumlocutory Taleb unloads on the perils of central banks, “Mr. Greenspan created tail risk by eliminating the business cycle,” and since then tail-risks have accumulated with debt the “number one creator of these risks.” In a fascinating phrase, Taleb notes, “corporate debt is benign,” since in failure it turns into equity, “but government debt is another matter… for it turns into inflation or worse invasion…”

Taleb Blasts Bernanke & Greenspan, Warns “Debt Raises The Risk Of Catastrophe” | Zero Hedge.

I have a question about true vs constructed preferences…

I have a question about true vs constructed preferences, wondering if some of my personal observations are general. Feel free to share your own.

Places held to be touristically either uninteresting or unattractive (or not particularly special) are associated in my personal memory with a lot better souvenirs than places held to be attractive. These “attractive” places evoke boredom (after the first contact and “wow! how beautiful” the scenery), rich farts, gold-diggers, Saudi “princes” in convertible Italian handmade sports cars, tourists being fleeced by locals, etc. This is easily conceivable based on habituation: inside a café, trapped in conversation, you forget that you are in West Philadelphia. Kahneman had a paper indicating that people who live in California are not really happier than those in the rest of the country, but don’t know it, and live under self-sustained myths. After a brief period, you treadmill to baseline. But as with people who are in California telling themselves that they have to be happier, because that’s the prevalent belief, we end up living in a postcard-like system of constructed preferences.

I agree that being exposed to natural beauty, once in a while, brings some aesthetic contentment, or episodic visits to the country bring some relief. And I accept that it is better to have some fractal dimension (trees, nature) in one’s permanent landscape. But I wonder if, for day-to-day life, one needs much more than ample sunlight and view of trees outside the window: beyond that, no postcard life can be a tradoff for absence of trusted and warm neighbors, plenty of relaxed friends, stimulating conversation, ability to walk places, and a consuming activity.

When I look into my personal raw preferences, I feel I prefer Brooklyn to the South of France, ugly West Philadelphia to the scenic Amherst (Mass), Milan to Florence, and Clerkenwell to Kensington. Question: Do we tend to follow the current culture as punishment?

via I have a question about true vs… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

Rolf Dobelli’s Case

Rolf Dobelli’s Case

Please note that I am putting these facts in the public domain, not making any legal or even ethical claim (yet). Just facts.

(Four months after becoming aware of the problem, and exactly one month after informing Dobelli, I resolved to put this here.)

Taken from Taleb’s Incerto (Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, & Antifragile) and other material without attribution; partial list.[i] [ii] These correspond to Rolf Dobelli’s various articles as well as his latest book.

***

Rolf Dobelli translated and summarized the section on via negativa from the unpublished manuscript of Antifragile (with which he was entrusted) in a German newspaper Zeit, with no sourcing and attribution. And published it before Antifragile.

One could stop here and draw a conclusion… but there is more: in the US version:

Taleb

Michelangelo was asked by the pope about the secret of his genius, particularly how he carved the statue of David, largely considered the masterpiece of all masterpieces. His answer was: “It’s simple. I just remove everything that is not David.” (Antifragile)

Dobelli

The pope asked Michelangelo: “Tell me the secret of your genius. How have you created the statue of David, the masterpiece of all masterpieces?” Michelangelo’s answer: “It’s simple. I removed everything that is not David.”

via Rolf Dobelli’s Case.

Nassim Taleb on the Errors of Richard Dawkins and of Intervening in Syria.

A few weeks back, see, Richard Dawkins caused a bit of controversy when he claimed that Trinity College has produced more Nobel Laureates than the entire Muslim world has been able to muster. As it turns out, Trinity College has also produced more Nobel winners than all of femininity combined, or of all of China as well. The problem isn’t the numbers, but the inference that Dawkins makes from it, which was something along the lines of when it comes to intelligence, the entire Muslim world is backward. Taleb addresses this in the video below as being flawed in terms of the probabilities of there being more smart folks living in the West than there are in the rest of the world.

Basically, he argues that you can’t make inferences from things that take place in the tails of a Gaussian distribution curve, especially in that place we live that Taleb calls Extremistan, where the winners take a disproportionate amount of the gains in a society. Be advised, math alert!

via Nassim Taleb on the Errors of Richard Dawkins and of Intervening in Syria..

Nassim N Taleb’s review of A Few Lessons from Sherlock Holmes

5.0 out of 5 stars A Guide to Both Wisdom and Sherlock Holmes, September 5, 2013

By N N Taleb “Nassim N Taleb”

This review is from: A Few Lessons from Sherlock Holmes (Kindle Edition)

We Sherlock Holmes fans, readers, and secret imitators need a map. Here it is. Peter Bevelin is one of the wisest people on the planet. He went through the books and pulled out sections from Conan Doyle’s stories that are relevant to us moderns, a guide to both wisdom and Sherlock Holmes. It makes you both wiser and eager to reread Sherlock Holmes.

via Amazon.com: N N Taleb “Nassim N Taleb”‘s review of A Few Lessons from Sherlock Holmes.
HatTip to Dave Lull