Category Archives: Contributors

“a love letter to libraries and archives” | hangingtogether.org

From Dave Lull who, like me, enjoys seeing NNT’s ideas spreading far and wide.

Jean Bauer interjects: “Memories of serendipitous discoveries in physical stacks are example of Black Swan Theory. Rarely happens but very memorable.”

Brian: “Yes. But… the impact that it has probably makes for a larger memory of it.”

Chris: “And I think it’s especially stack-based serendipity that gets played up. We don’t talk about social networks this way.”

Brian: “I think we are just getting there with online serendipity … it is still much newer phenomena than physical.”

via “a love letter to libraries and archives” | hangingtogether.org.

Five Good Candidates to Succeed Jamie Dimon | Gawker

Jamie Dimon, the bulletproof head of JPMorgan Chase, has throat cancer. Though his prognosis is good, speculation about who will succeed him is already rampant. Allow us to offer some ideas for successors who are not “just another banker in a suit.”

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The former options trader, professor, and author of The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness has made a career out of explaining the nature of risks (particularly within the financial system) and how to protect against them. He’s argued for eliminating bonuses on Wall Street, and called Wall Street banks “a compensation scheme and nothing else.” Just the man to rally the JPMorgan troops.

via Five Good Candidates to Succeed Jamie Dimon.

Inequality, Free Markets, and Crashes | National Review Online

Mark Spitznagel and Nassim Taleb started the first equity tail-hedging firm in 1999. Since then these two friends and colleagues have helped popularize so-called “black swan” investing, with Spitznagel as the founder and CIO of hedge fund Universa Investments and Taleb as an academic and author of The Black Swan. The two men recently sat down to discuss Spitznagel’s new book, The Dao of Capital, as well as their reactions to and criticisms of Thomas Piketty’s book, i. Here is a transcript of their conversation:

Nassim Taleb: Mark, your book is the only place that understands crashes as natural equalizers. In the context of today’s raging debates on inequality, do you believe that the natural mechanism of bringing equality — or, at the least, the weakening of the privileged — is via crashes?

Mark Spitznagel: Well straight away let’s ask ourselves: Are we really seeking realized financial equality? How can we ever know what is the natural or acceptable level of inequality, and why is it even the rule of the majority to determine that? That aside, one can absolutely say logically and empirically that asset-market crashes diminish inequality. They are a natural mechanism for this, and a cathartic response to central banks’ manipulation of interest rates and resulting asset-market inflation, as well as other government bailouts, that so amplify inequality in the first place. So crashes are capitalism’s homeostatic mechanism at work to right a distorted system. We are in this ridiculous situation where utopian government policies meant to lessen inequality are a reaction to the consequences of other government policies — a round trip of market distortion. After we’ve been run over by a car, the assumed best treatment is to back the car over us again.

via National Review Online | Print.

When Did Nassim Taleb Cut Off Our Balls? | Portrait of the Economist as a Young Man

So the question is: when did Nassim Taleb cut off economists’ balls?

The article is dated June 1998. His first popular book, Fooled by Randomness, came out in 2001 and contains attacks on Scholes and Merton, so this evolution in thought must have come about very rapidly.

My best guess is that the key event that changed his perspective was the bail out of Long-Term Capital Management in September 1998, orchestrated by the New York Federal Reserve. Scholes and Merton were principals in LTCM, and indeed, Taleb criticizes them strongly for this failure in Fooled by Randomness.

via When Did Nassim Taleb Cut Off Our Balls? | Portrait of the Economist as a Young Man.