Category Archives: John

Blame Nobel for crisis, says author of Black Swan | Reuters

Shared by JohnH

Note: From the Globe and Mail (Check comments, Mark informs us that NNT was aware of this in TBS, so in fact, it’s the Globe and Mail author who got it wrong).
http://goo.gl/Sd61

The next prize winner will be revealed to great public acclaim or, more typically, puzzlement on Oct. 11. But what neither Mr. Taleb nor most other people realize is that none of the above actually won a Nobel Prize — at least not the official one set up in the name of the late dynamite mogul.

What the gaggle of economic theorists have actually scored is the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences, which is paid for by the Swedish central bank “in memory of Alfred Nobel,” who set aside nothing from his vast fortune to honour economists.

Nassim Taleb speaks to reporters at the Reuters Finance Summit in New York November 16, 2005.

 

 

 

Credit: Reuters By Adam Cox

STOCKHOLM |
Tue Sep 28, 2010 9:40am EDT

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – Did the Nobel prize help trigger the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression?

Nassim Taleb, who shot to fame with his ideas about risk in the book “The Black Swan,” believes the economics award and the theories it celebrates deserve their share of blame.

“I want to remove the harm from these economic models. And the Nobel is not helping. They should be held partly responsible, if not largely responsible, for the crisis,” Taleb told Reuters by telephone.

The first of the Nobel awards will be announced next Monday, with the economics prize due a week later on Oct 11.

According to Taleb, there are a number of mistaken ideas about forecasting and measuring risk, which all contribute to events like the 2008 global crisis. The Nobel prize, he says, has given them a stamp of approval, allowing them to propagate.

Nassim Taleb: Don’t Listen to Geithner or Krugman – Nicole Allan – Business – The Atlantic

Taleb took issue with Krugman’s support of deficit spending. “This transformation of private debt, with all the moral hazard it entails, into public debt is, number one, from a risk standpoint, bad,” he said. “And from an ethical standpoint, I find it immoral. The grandchildren should not bear the debts of the grandparents.”

Taleb called Friedman’s book The World is Flat “very bad for society,” arguing that it did not adequately assess risk. 

One person who did see the crash coming? Nassim Taleb. “In 2008, when the crisis happened, a lot of heads of state were interested in my message,” Taleb said. “Including David Cameron.”

Asked where the economy would be in 25 years, Taleb gave the vague response that “everything fragile will break.” Oh, and that the Fed won’t exist anymore. It will be replaced by something “I think more organic and that makes more sense.”

nntaleb: Finished My Central Paper http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1669317

nntaleb: Finished My Central Paper http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1669317

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Links to pdf download page for:

Convexity, Robustness, and Model Error
Nassim Nicholas Taleb

NYU-Poly
August, 31 2010
Abstract:
This discussion makes the distinction inside the Fourth Quadrant “Black Swan Domain” between fragile an robust to model (or representational) error on the basis of convexity.
• The notion of model error as a convex or concave stochastic variable.
• Why deficit forecasting errors are biased in one direction.
• Why large is fragile to errors.
• How economics as a discipline made the monstrously consequential mistake of treating estimated parameters as nonstochastic variables and why this leads to fat-tails even while using Gaussian models.
• The notion of epistemic uncertainty as embedded in model errors.
In addition, it introduces a simple practical heuristic to measure (as an indicator of fragility) the sensitivity of a portfolio (or balance sheet) to model error. Finally, it sets an explicit path to conduct policy based on robustness

Working Paper Series