Category Archives: Audio

May 2010 Nassim Taleb Interview with Russ Roberts EconTalk.org

This is the third Russ Roberts Econtalk.org interview which took place just before the April 2010 release of the second edition of The Black Swan.

2010 Taleb on Black Swans, Fragility, and Mistakes.

Very interesting to listen to all three interviews in sequence.
2007

2009

The Big Short – Michael Lewis – On Wall St. Reform

NNT wasn’t the only one who saw it coming. In ‘The Big Short’ Michael Lewis documents a few others who did see it coming and who turned that into a successful investment strategy. I haven’t read it yet but in this NPR interview with Terry Gross (NPR link), Michael gives us the synopsis and it sounds to me like a great read.

The Big Short by Michael Lewis

 

On reform. Excerpt from March 16, 2010 interview with NPR’s Terry Gross.
TG:So when you look at the reforms of the financial system that are being proposed now, what do you see?
ML:Well, for the last eighteen months, we have been dealing with symptoms of the  the crisis rather than the cause, there has been no reform. It’s been delayed, and that’s not surprising. I mean, financial markets move quickly and democracy moves slowly. The crash of 1929 happens in 1929 and Glass Steagall, which reforms Wall St. in  a radical way doesn’t happen until 1933. There aren’t even proper hearings on Capital Hill about the crisis of ’29 until, I think, late ’32. And so it’s not that surprising it’s taken a while. But the ideas that are now being batted around, and, it does look like financial reform is about to get moved to the front burner. ah… there’s some really good ones. It’s just a question of whether they can be pushed through over the objections of Wall St. ’cause they’re all antithetical to the interests of Wall St.
The first is… It’s crazy- a Wall St. firm can advise customers to buy and sell stocks and bonds and at the same time be making bets with its own money, on those stocks and bonds.
TG:  Betting against them.
ML: Yeah!
TG: You’re the broker, you tell me to buy the bonds, and then you bet against those bonds.
ML: Yeah!
TG: That they’re going to fail.
ML: It creates a natural, horrible, poisonous relationship between Wall St. and the people it advises. If the Wall St. firm is making it’s own side bets at the same time it’s advising the customers what to do.
TG: It’s such a conflict of interest!…
ML. Especially since the Wall St. firms make their money with their own side bets. So inevitably what happens is, the customers get used, as a tool for their own portfolio- to get out of things they don’t want to own, and so on and so forth. The so called Volcker rule named for Paul Volcker because he’s advocating it, makes total sense. It’s to say to these firms. “You can’t trade for your own accounts in things where you’re advising customers”. So that’s a really simple reform. But it’s going to be devastating to Wall St.
Another simple reform, I mean, it’s so obvious, that, you can’t believe it hasn’t happened yet. Just eliminate these bilateral private transactions that go on between these firms that leave them exposed to each other. Like credit default swaps. Why should Deutsche Bank be able to call up Morgan Stanley and make an 8 billion dollar bet that neither one of them actually records on their balance sheets? It creates horrible uncertainty and instability to have this kind of murky world of side bets going on. And nobody knows who’s got them. So you never know how healthy these institutions are. So, all things that are traded, credit default swaps for example, should be traded through exchanges, and on screens so everybody can see them. Now that kind of transparency, again, is anathema to Wall St. cause they make a lot of money, off the opacity. They make a lot of money out of people not seeing what the right price of things should be. But they’re fighting that tooth and nail.
And a third thing- it’s very obvious, so obvious you can’t believe it hasn’t happened is- Why on earth are the ratings agencies- Moody’s and Standard and Poor- paid by the people whose bonds they are rating? It’s inevitably going to lead to problems because they’re incentivized to please the people that pay them.

The World's Craziest Trade | www.bullfax.com

Shared by JohnH

Anybody read The Big Short? Would love to understand the details of making the kind of trades NNT talks about. I wish someone would write a ‘How To’ with specifics built around NNT’s Moscow Forum strategy outlined here: http://www.blackswanreport.com/media/NassimTaleb-Moscow-February2010-trades.mp3

I did this exercise after being inspired/motivated by the story of Cornwall Capital which was bought to my attention by Michael Lewis in his book the Big Short:Ledley and Mai were two guys in their early 30s who decided to start their own hedge fund with just over $100,000. They quickly made more than $15 million by betting on financial events that are extremely unlikely to occur — and therefore didn’t cost much to bet against. “They thought that Wall Street underestimated the likelihood of really unlikely events,” Lewis says. “So they would buy options to buy stocks at prices far, far away from where the stocks were currently trading. They did this with currencies, they did it with commodities. They scoured the world, essentially looking to make bets on extreme things happening.” This story bought together everything that John Templeton practiced and Nassim Taleb preaches! In fact if you wanted a book that clearly demonstrated the application of Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan then look no further than The Big Short. While most commentators are of the belief that being right is all that matters few, in fact, ever so few, place any emphasis on risk vs. reward of a particular outcome. Perhaps analysts/bloggers think in terms of their reputations when it comes to risk vs. reward rather than a financial outcome. Anyway getting back to my idea……

How to do Precisely the Right Thing at all Possible Times

I recently added another Danny Kahneman page to the site and in that page is a link to a talk Dan Gilbert gave at SXSW 2006 entitled “How to do Precisely the Right Thing at all Possible Times”. Dan was only being a little bit facetious because right at the beginning of the talk he tells you how to do exactly that. “The happiness you can expect from anything you do is a function of two things: the odds of getting a gain, and; the value of that gain. You multiply these two things together and you know exactly how good your decision or action is going to be.” Sound familiar? Very similar to what NNT is saying (I’ve heard him talk about it in numerous talks, but this comes from his Long Now talk) when he says, “The telescope problem… what matters is not the probability, what matters is the event, so if I have a small probability of losing a million dollars, I don’t care about the probability I care how much I lose. You worry more if you have a small probability of being on a plane that crashes than if you have a small probability of not having an umbrella in the rain. So it’s not the probabilities that you care about, It’s the probability times the event, the magnitude of the event.” Dan is talking about the possible gain and NNT about loss, but the equation is the same, is it not?

Dan’s talk goes on to point out that because of how we’re wired we are actually pretty much clueless about determining the value of a gain that occurs in the future. So, while the equation is valid it’s not very useful because it’s basically impossible to know the extent to which we will value something that hasn’t happened- that isn’t happening right now! I suppose the same could be said for loss, and in fact Dan addresses this in his talk, pointing out that however grand the misfortune that befalls us, after about a year we’re back to our own personal happiness equilibrium.  I listen to this talk about once a month. In fact it’s what inspired my adventure into heuristics which lead to Danny Kahneman and NNT.
Check it out How to do Precisely the Right Thing at all Possible Times.

Nassim Taleb mp3 Audio Added

Note that you can find posts that have audio or video in them by clicking on their Category in the right side bar.
Using a site I found that extracts audio from YouTube videos (this one actually works) FetchMP3.com I’m able to add some more audio files. I attached them to their individual video posts but here’s the links as well.

Nassim-Taleb-3-La-Ciudad-de-las-Ideas-2009.mp3
Nassim-Taleb-Angry-October-2009.mp3
Nassim-Taleb-attacks-VaR-in-Congress.mp3
Nassim-Taleb-Bloomberg-April-2009.mp3
NassimTaleb-Moscow-February2010-trades.mp3
NassimTaleb-IanBremmer-Zeitgeist2009.mp3

While I’m at it I’m also including this mp3 from a Duke University podcast. Especially for those of us who don’t have much experience in the market, this talk is interesting. The talk is called The Black Swan Theory.
Daniel-Egger-Founder-Chairman-Open-Source-Risk-Management-LLC.mp3