An introduction for Silent Risk. Presenting the difference between verbalistic description of probabilistic events and the true rigorous (contractual or mathematical) one. We really don’t know what we are talking about when we talk about probability. Except, of course, firefighters.

Adding (p 55) a definition of a Charlatan. Why verbalistic “predictions” (and prediction markets) are nonsense.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QINW1YQm1uSmRjcmc/edit

via An introduction for Silent Risk. Presenting the… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.