THE IDIOT IN REAL LIFE PROBLEM. 15 years ago I noticed that people who studied economics were very stupid in casual inference violating probability theory but would not do so in the classroom. Then I noticed that two economists just made absurd statements about one of my “prediction”, particularly one Noah Smith who normally should know better. How could that be? Simple: different domains.
There have been papers (mine with Goldstein plus Hoggarth and Sayer) documenting this: you simply can’t trust a nonpractioner of probability to discuss probability in the real world.
John, This kind of statements made by Mr. Taleb always reminds me that a student of his writings ought to at least take a class in statestical sample theory before being let loosed on the real world. Of course if you get bored of that I even recommend too reading ancient tragic plays to discern their hidden argument. Of course the problem with economist is that some of their theories are wrong and even stupid, which wouldn’t matter, but some are dangerous too, the problem of iatrogenics.