New paper with Phil Tetlock on the difference between the Thalesian and the Aristotelian: On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure, With Implications For Forecasting Tournaments and Prediction Markets.

On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure, with Implications for Forecasting…
There are serious differences between predictions, bets, and exposures that have a yes/no type of payoff, the “binaries”, and those

via New paper with Phil Tetlock on the… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.