Apologies, just going to put this here. Catching up a month and a half of NNT’s tweets.  I’ve heard from a few people who are locked out of Twitter at work that this has been useful. Back in the day when I started saving NNT’s tweets he was known to delete them at random and start again. Since he’s stopped doing that, this is sort of redundent but it forces me to pop in and see what he’s up to, and to collect relevant videos and publications.  I started this blog shortly after reading Fooled By Randomness. NNT was hardly known at the time and I felt his ideas were interesting and useful and that they could make a difference in the world. Well this many years later and the blog is more or less a habit as NNT has certainly made a name for himself. And his ideas are known and valued far and wide.

@nntaleb Might be outside EVT. Will look. Permalink 2020-07-14 22:48:33+00:00

@nntaleb I am doing an interview. Not yet decided with whom. Permalink 2020-07-14 22:48:10+00:00

@nntaleb You were a subject under the fake name citizen; the reverse is better. Permalink 2020-07-14 21:19:31+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ Am I the only one who sees similarities betw the cancel culture & France’s reign of terror, the use of empty slogans to indirectly promote the exact opposite of what is claimed (i.e., “diversity” ideas to promote “Northern-Euro (bleached) supremacy”), etc. ? Permalink 2020-07-14 19:49:05+00:00

@nntaleb Block idiots. Permalink 2020-07-14 19:44:41+00:00

@nntaleb I even reduced the burden when I discovered the effect of masks. Permalink 2020-07-14 19:09:51+00:00

@nntaleb Today July 14, some think they are celebrating “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity” Not quite In fact they are celebrating verbalism & fake slogans: the move from UK-style constitutional monarchy to mob rule, reign of terror, arbitrary executions,…, then 70y of ABSOLUTE autocracy. Permalink 2020-07-14 19:08:35+00:00

@nntaleb Look up Ito’s lemma / stochastic process Permalink 2020-07-14 15:26:52+00:00

@nntaleb No, no Permalink 2020-07-14 15:07:06+00:00

@nntaleb Nobody has been working on formalizing Lindy. This is the next paper. Permalink 2020-07-14 15:01:15+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! What should I get? Permalink 2020-07-14 00:50:50+00:00

@nntaleb Will this work? Permalink 2020-07-14 00:46:09+00:00

@nntaleb He probably meant أخطبوط from χταπόδι Permalink 2020-07-13 22:18:26+00:00

@nntaleb A thread around my paper on p-values and p-value hacking, now a chapter in Stat Cons Fat Tails. Permalink 2020-07-13 22:16:20+00:00

@nntaleb Meanwhile Razib you are not paying attention to our correction to standard PCAs. Permalink 2020-07-13 20:17:55+00:00

@nntaleb @PZalloua We know the migration. Permalink 2020-07-13 20:10:19+00:00

@nntaleb I do not understand what you are looking for. Probability for an average to exceed the median is circular (under normal approximation mean converges to median). Permalink 2020-07-13 14:11:28+00:00

@nntaleb I agree here but by 2nd order effects I mean under nonlinearities which is an entirely different thingy. Permalink 2020-07-13 14:10:10+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-13 14:02:28+00:00

@nntaleb One mechanism Permalink 2020-07-13 13:26:55+00:00

@nntaleb Literary Persian is Indo-European with the majority of the vocabulary Semitic, 60% & higher for legal/medical texts, just as English is a nonRomance language with a high ratio of latin vocabulary. Same for Turkish w/ high ratio of Persian & Semitic vocabulary. Permalink 2020-07-13 12:09:21+00:00

@nntaleb Of course. Permalink 2020-07-13 10:59:51+00:00

@nntaleb The Masks Masquerade: Permalink 2020-07-13 10:59:29+00:00

@nntaleb Make lemon out of lemonade. Permalink 2020-07-13 10:28:38+00:00

@nntaleb https://biblehub.com/hebrew/5908.htm Permalink 2020-07-13 02:45:23+00:00

@nntaleb It exists in ancient Hebrew Permalink 2020-07-13 02:44:13+00:00

@nntaleb Mistake: العنكبوت شبكتها should be العنكبوت شبكته since it appears to be masculine. Permalink 2020-07-13 02:19:38+00:00

@nntaleb He was not eating alone, then. At least not initially. I made a mistake. Permalink 2020-07-13 02:15:54+00:00

@nntaleb Erdogan’s recitation: We have three language groups… Literary Turkish was Persian and Literaty Persian was Semitic (borrowed from both Aramaic & Classical Arabic). لنترجم علمشرقي: “بقصر القيصر بتشدالعنكبوت شبكتها و البومة بتصيح تحت قبة أفراسياب Permalink 2020-07-13 02:14:50+00:00

@nntaleb Apologies never count when they are driven by fear or self-interest; they count only when they are voluntary, spontaneous, and self-motivated. Permalink 2020-07-12 21:18:58+00:00

@nntaleb Apologies never count when they are driven by self-interest; they count only when they are voluntary, spontaneous, and self-motivated. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/506975-tech-ceo-caught-on-video-yelling-at-asian-american-family#.Xwt87zxp8aw.twitter Permalink 2020-07-12 21:16:14+00:00

@nntaleb That was my thought. He was soooooo lucky neither you nor I were there. Permalink 2020-07-12 21:08:08+00:00

@nntaleb And @JoshHochschild although he is Catholic. Permalink 2020-07-12 13:49:26+00:00

@nntaleb Or, easier, reduce the central state whenever possible. Central State employment in Lebanon is largely patronage (“zelm”). It’s the case in all the Med (Italy for example). Permalink 2020-07-11 20:20:16+00:00

@nntaleb Along with @ektrit of course Permalink 2020-07-11 20:15:10+00:00

@nntaleb Last time I checked there were no caravan routes in Leb Permalink 2020-07-11 20:02:39+00:00

@nntaleb What does this have to do with anything? Permalink 2020-07-11 19:36:55+00:00

@nntaleb Among the few who got the theology part: @DrMichaelBonner Permalink 2020-07-11 19:34:32+00:00

@nntaleb There are ads claiming I will be giving a masterclass somewhere online. I give no masterclasses. Permalink 2020-07-11 18:52:08+00:00

@nntaleb Another one @EGKhoury Permalink 2020-07-11 17:35:17+00:00

@nntaleb Yes you cut in 2 compensating halves, as with Principal Values Permalink 2020-07-11 17:20:15+00:00

@nntaleb Basically only solution I can find without going through the complex domain Permalink 2020-07-11 17:03:59+00:00

@nntaleb Yes wiki! I tried to create another one with Ceiling and Floor Permalink 2020-07-11 16:21:58+00:00

@nntaleb You need the aesthetics of Latex Permalink 2020-07-11 14:23:47+00:00

@nntaleb I did not write this, but I almost thought I did. The Nation state killed Mediterranean cosmopolitanism. Some in #Antifragile Permalink 2020-07-11 14:21:41+00:00

@nntaleb Because you are promoting PLAGIARISM, which is STOLEN WORK Permalink 2020-07-11 12:09:37+00:00

@nntaleb Except for Uber ratings! Permalink 2020-07-11 11:55:54+00:00

@nntaleb And of course the absurdity of a newspaper that publishes in French for a Christian elite opposing the formalization of local language on grounds of political correctness! Who the fuck are you fooling? Permalink 2020-07-11 11:55:26+00:00

@nntaleb Yes assumed Permalink 2020-07-11 11:26:52+00:00

@nntaleb Nigel Warburton, though is highly unethical. Permalink 2020-07-11 11:14:24+00:00

@nntaleb CORRECTIONS, one by author of the problem, second (inequality becomes equality) thanks to @mcs1870 Permalink 2020-07-11 10:47:46+00:00

@nntaleb Uber rating is central. The rest is just window dressing. Permalink 2020-07-11 10:29:34+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking Liar The piece has NOTHING to do with “Phoenicianism” but origin of spoken language. It explicitly says it does not descend from “Phoenician” Fucking liar. Permalink 2020-07-11 10:16:18+00:00

@nntaleb How about 60yo Deads 400? Permalink 2020-07-10 21:59:29+00:00

@nntaleb Yes you need to bounce within 1-2Y, or we are doomed. Permalink 2020-07-10 21:58:12+00:00

@nntaleb To illustrate how stable the alpha is for pandemics, here are computations taking each time randomly only 40% of the observations. You get the same with the stock market, wars, etc. https://twitter.com/Heinonmatti/status/1281618547823849482 Permalink 2020-07-10 21:11:33+00:00

@nntaleb Actually good ham (Iberico, Serrano, etc.) is 100% from VEGETARIAN pigs. Permalink 2020-07-10 20:59:22+00:00

@nntaleb Triple imbecile, is my article causing their poverty or preventing their exit from it? Imbecile. Permalink 2020-07-10 20:32:16+00:00

@nntaleb Not in the book but you need an energy constraint to get the Gaussian. Permalink 2020-07-10 18:07:26+00:00

@nntaleb Language is WHERE power laws were really discovered (George Zipf). Mandelbrot did his thesis on information theory… rediscovering the effect. Permalink 2020-07-10 18:02:25+00:00

@nntaleb Tatiana, “Middle Eastern country” is a severe misdescription. Mediterranean is more accurate. Permalink 2020-07-10 17:07:27+00:00

@nntaleb By now, dolarization works. Permalink 2020-07-10 15:41:16+00:00

@nntaleb For journalists and imbeciles like you, yes. Permalink 2020-07-10 14:04:25+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, but explained the necessary education is high school/technical skills. Not university Permalink 2020-07-10 14:02:26+00:00

@nntaleb Wait and you will get one closer to you. Permalink 2020-07-10 13:23:38+00:00

@nntaleb Me, president of Lebanon? It is like asking a fighter pilot to drive an Uber. Permalink 2020-07-10 13:07:51+00:00

@nntaleb The Iranian educational system is impressive. Permalink 2020-07-10 13:04:19+00:00

@nntaleb You make sooooooooooooooooooooo little sense. In what agricultural place does the majority of the people own agricultural land? Permalink 2020-07-10 13:01:20+00:00

@nntaleb Ignore ergodic here. It is just fat tailed. Permalink 2020-07-10 12:16:19+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile it is called MATH and if you don’t know what you are talking about do your homework or STAY OUT of math. Permalink 2020-07-10 12:15:56+00:00

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuck off? Permalink 2020-07-10 12:01:20+00:00

@nntaleb It has been FREE on the web for 12 months. Permalink 2020-07-10 11:41:34+00:00

@nntaleb Stat conse of fat tails is 100% ANALYTICAL Permalink 2020-07-10 11:39:23+00:00

@nntaleb You must be a total idiot since my points are clear enough for the author of the cited article to get it perfectly. Total idiot. Permalink 2020-07-10 11:38:51+00:00

@nntaleb Fuck no. It is all decentralized, private, or via religious institutions. Permalink 2020-07-10 11:34:21+00:00

@nntaleb Finally people in decision science are GETTING OUR POINT, starting to move away from naive “evidence based” empiricism, realizing that many psycholophasters such as @CassSunstein and @PTetlock are using fortune cookie tools. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13669877.2020.1772346 Permalink 2020-07-10 10:56:06+00:00

@nntaleb Not quite. Educational levels are lower. Permalink 2020-07-10 10:49:31+00:00

@nntaleb I just published Lebanon: from Ponzi to Antifragility Permalink 2020-07-10 10:36:40+00:00

@nntaleb Zoom dinners work! Ask @trishankkarthik to put you on the list Permalink 2020-07-09 23:06:38+00:00

@nntaleb I remember Pierre Gemayyel transcribed as Bayyar Jamil Permalink 2020-07-09 22:31:50+00:00

@nntaleb I see. For I have actually added to ergodicity in 2009 for the 2nd edition. Permalink 2020-07-09 19:04:41+00:00

@nntaleb W sanfirlo 3al sanfiryél Permalink 2020-07-09 19:03:52+00:00

@nntaleb These were not ADDED. They were there from the beginning. Permalink 2020-07-09 18:58:41+00:00

@nntaleb OK, but then please don’t read anything by Anita Brookner. Permalink 2020-07-09 17:08:09+00:00

@nntaleb Chi mangia solo, muore solo. Permalink 2020-07-09 17:00:10+00:00

@nntaleb But I fast usually instead of eating alone. Forces you to socialize. Permalink 2020-07-09 16:57:52+00:00

@nntaleb Yes for me it’s sushi Permalink 2020-07-09 16:57:18+00:00

@nntaleb Qui mange seul meurt seul. Permalink 2020-07-09 16:37:48+00:00

@nntaleb I keep saying: don’t expect too many human traits from people who eat dinner alone. Permalink 2020-07-09 16:14:36+00:00

@nntaleb They keep them for 2000 years Permalink 2020-07-09 15:46:04+00:00

@nntaleb Block idiots Permalink 2020-07-09 15:45:26+00:00

@nntaleb Actually Jaffer is half Greek Permalink 2020-07-09 14:50:20+00:00

@nntaleb No he doesn’t or doesn’t understand. Strawman that misses scaling. Permalink 2020-07-09 14:26:51+00:00

@nntaleb OK OK. Tlabt w7dé. Permalink 2020-07-09 14:25:05+00:00

@nntaleb ASYMMETRY Someone wants to interview my “enemies”. Tried to make a list: I cannot find one who knows MY work. But I know THEIR works. Alas, *almost* all my enemies are people angry because I am going after them(“BS BUSTING CRUSADE), not because they don’t like my work. Permalink 2020-07-09 14:11:11+00:00

@nntaleb Which grinder should I get. Permalink 2020-07-09 13:28:39+00:00

@nntaleb Will this work? Permalink 2020-07-09 12:50:14+00:00

@nntaleb Comme si c’était du sport! Permalink 2020-07-08 22:18:22+00:00

@nntaleb 2) Sartre also had the decency to write to the Nobel committee asking for his name to be removed from consideration. His refusal was not an ex post free option. Permalink 2020-07-08 19:48:58+00:00

@nntaleb The minute you have an affiliation, you are no longer to be trusted with your opinion. The patron saint of intellectuals Jean-Paul Sartre declined the Nobel Prize in Lit because did not want to be “institutionalised”. His opinions would reflect on the Nobel & vice versa. Permalink 2020-07-08 19:45:50+00:00

@nntaleb Also PREASYMPTOTICS, the topic of STAT CONS OF FAT TAILS Permalink 2020-07-08 17:25:04+00:00

@nntaleb Forgot that I discussed ergodicity in The Black Swan! Second edition, 2009. cc:@ole_b_peters Permalink 2020-07-08 17:18:08+00:00

@nntaleb Yes the identity becomes an inequality. Permalink 2020-07-08 16:14:43+00:00

@nntaleb The wine cooler Permalink 2020-07-08 16:13:40+00:00

@nntaleb Power law is always for the tails, as x->+-\infty Permalink 2020-07-08 15:42:35+00:00

@nntaleb It is ~~ or + O(f(x))^5 Permalink 2020-07-08 02:02:11+00:00

@nntaleb You do not want to be “cancelled” by 1) Your barber 2) Your butcher 3) The owner of your favorite restaurant The rest can go f*** themselves. #BeingIndependent Permalink 2020-07-08 01:58:34+00:00

@nntaleb It is Arcsin[h], which is log[h + Sqrt[1 + h^2]] Permalink 2020-07-08 01:52:26+00:00

@nntaleb Reminder: You do not become free by becoming prominent. You will be canceled if you stray from the monoculture. As in Kundera’s *Joke*, they will find something you said somewhere that you don’t even remember. Your public “apologies” will make you look even more vulnerable. Permalink 2020-07-07 21:55:48+00:00

@nntaleb I mean PPP is a fraud and I agree with @PeterSchiff Permalink 2020-07-07 21:13:03+00:00

@nntaleb Fraud, again. Permalink 2020-07-07 20:38:28+00:00

@nntaleb Shipped July 12 latest Permalink 2020-07-07 19:27:57+00:00

@nntaleb Fuck that! This is what I do Permalink 2020-07-07 19:15:30+00:00

@nntaleb Computer, both LateX and Mathematica Permalink 2020-07-07 19:07:07+00:00

@nntaleb Must be f’>1 Permalink 2020-07-07 18:53:05+00:00

@nntaleb Typo Permalink 2020-07-07 18:49:53+00:00

@nntaleb It is always embarrassing to fail to solve something when one’s picture is on it. Permalink 2020-07-07 18:47:03+00:00

@nntaleb In case it rains. [Note that all non-math related commentators will be blocked] Permalink 2020-07-07 18:24:51+00:00

@nntaleb IMBECILE it’s the virus that’s sabotaging the economy. Permalink 2020-07-07 18:13:57+00:00

@nntaleb He claimed he should meet patients and shake hands, mingle with them. Permalink 2020-07-07 18:13:20+00:00

@nntaleb The best approach is to eyeball the “Karamata point”. You can recognize it when you see it. No other approach works as well. @Heinonmatti Permalink 2020-07-07 16:58:24+00:00

@nntaleb Early virus denial got Boris Johnson, Bolsonaro so far. A few left… Permalink 2020-07-07 16:38:23+00:00

@nntaleb Keep Scott Adams outside matters with any quantitative/scientific or logical dimension. Permalink 2020-07-07 16:03:21+00:00

@nntaleb The draughtsperson used a Disraeli novel. Permalink 2020-07-07 13:57:21+00:00

@nntaleb It was drawn from description Permalink 2020-07-07 13:54:22+00:00

@nntaleb Mazel tov Permalink 2020-07-07 12:04:48+00:00

@nntaleb This is called “opinion against interest”. Permalink 2020-07-07 11:14:42+00:00

@nntaleb The great Mandelbrot, during his naturalization exams. Examiner: “how many stripes…” M: “what is a stripe? The white or the red”? I had EXACTLY the same reaction. What people call “stripe” is cultural, has tacit foundations. Permalink 2020-07-07 01:17:00+00:00

@nntaleb Evidence that people pay for the Chanel brand to impress their neighbors, not for the underlying quality. It is all about buying certification, not knowledge. Permalink 2020-07-06 23:36:08+00:00

@nntaleb Or mathematicians! Permalink 2020-07-06 23:34:23+00:00

@nntaleb IQ is not NorthernEuro-centric or anthropocentric (i.e., representing a type of intelligence for a certain environment). No. It is just NERD-CENTRIC. It is also part of a sinister racial/eugenist program. Permalink 2020-07-06 20:47:38+00:00

@nntaleb Institutes based on the ideas of (dead) anti-rent seekers are populated with employees who use the institute for rent seeking. Nonprofit organizations should have an expiration date. https://twitter.com/PatFitzgerald23/status/1280217058677084160 Permalink 2020-07-06 20:27:49+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-07-06 18:06:32+00:00

@nntaleb Where is the list? There must be others. Permalink 2020-07-06 18:00:55+00:00

@nntaleb Reason 1 – Real estate developers Reason 2- Professors … Permalink 2020-07-06 17:51:48+00:00

@nntaleb I support Pinker. Yes, he’s a BS operator posing as a scientist. Yes he is clueless abt genetics. Yes, he has no erudition yet writes abt the enlightment. But they’re not going after him for this. If they get him they can get ANYONE who depends on the system. #LeavePinkerAlone Permalink 2020-07-06 15:28:03+00:00

@nntaleb Did you get a copy? Permalink 2020-07-06 14:52:00+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks Atrin! Here is the summary graph, with legend on right: Permalink 2020-07-06 11:36:32+00:00

@nntaleb A reminder that #deaths from COVID is a *lower bound* not an estimate. Many people will die months later (fellow was 41, died after 3 m). How many? NO IDEA. Too much uncertainty. Furthermore media statistics & numbers do not seem to focus on morbidity. Permalink 2020-07-06 11:14:37+00:00

@nntaleb Ha! It is NOT symmetric, goes mostly in one direction. Permalink 2020-07-06 11:07:17+00:00

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness applied to regression slopes. Random points ALWAYS produce a slope. Permalink 2020-07-06 10:46:54+00:00

@nntaleb Olympic lifts! Permalink 2020-07-06 10:09:27+00:00

@nntaleb Projects that “brew” grow best! Indeed we need to revisit. Permalink 2020-07-06 10:01:30+00:00

@nntaleb Bravo! Do you know how much caffeine there in the output of a small Brikka? Permalink 2020-07-06 09:59:20+00:00

@nntaleb I am glad this prick is not in Lebanon. Where I am spending more and more time. Permalink 2020-07-06 02:51:39+00:00

@nntaleb Hi, thanks Let me see if @yaneerbaryam can be interested Permalink 2020-07-06 02:22:46+00:00

@nntaleb He has a series of such posts. I looked at his CV in disbelief: “prestigious” publications in econ journals which tell you economics MUST BE a citation ring. I can understand BS Vendors like @PTetlock publishing in psych journals. But this is economics, a bit more quantitative. Permalink 2020-07-06 02:07:56+00:00

@nntaleb Incompetence so, so extreme can only be dealt with by counting it as pure fraud. Permalink 2020-07-06 01:44:26+00:00

@nntaleb You can always tell. Permalink 2020-07-05 22:27:56+00:00

@nntaleb Probably late Bronze age, then remember name was Baal, then temples of Bacchus and Jupiter. Permalink 2020-07-05 19:50:30+00:00

@nntaleb Hint: name is Baal Permalink 2020-07-05 19:31:48+00:00

@nntaleb Baalbeck 2020 Live! In the most impressive Graeco-Roman temple left. https://youtu.be/KQ0k8UE651E via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-05 19:18:18+00:00

@nntaleb Sunday Math du Jour in memory of @CutTheKnotMath I build in the days of Alexander Bogomolny a program to “cheat” with proofs of inequalities. Here it is Permalink 2020-07-05 17:36:31+00:00

@nntaleb If “straightforward” please present straightforward solution or you get blocked. Thanks. Permalink 2020-07-05 13:08:30+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, tighter bound! Permalink 2020-07-05 13:02:42+00:00

@nntaleb The Llave is uneven: some packets foam, others don’t. And the Illi for Mokka doesn’t foam. Is it from the degradation/loss of oil ? Permalink 2020-07-05 11:58:10+00:00

@nntaleb Not hard, but I guess there is a hint that I should post. Permalink 2020-07-05 10:02:15+00:00

@nntaleb I’ve never met a rich nitpicker. Permalink 2020-07-04 22:40:04+00:00

@nntaleb Your alpha is wrong. Eliminate values to the left and redo. It is not close to the points on the right. Permalink 2020-07-04 22:10:48+00:00

@nntaleb Was told by doctas they got the hang of immunosuppressants etc. Permalink 2020-07-04 22:03:25+00:00

@nntaleb Not yet. Permalink 2020-07-04 21:37:12+00:00

@nntaleb These answers are an intelligence test Permalink 2020-07-04 21:36:35+00:00

@nntaleb Happy birthday America. Today was born the first modern state democracy and (still) by far the most robust one! Permalink 2020-07-04 21:30:21+00:00

@nntaleb Also Nice to see my arguments circulating: simple powerful points that appear obvious once you hear them. ” a quick twitter thought, if IQ was highest Northern Europe as usually claimed why has N. Europe remained so primitive compared to other places for most of history?” Permalink 2020-07-04 21:24:01+00:00

@nntaleb The book has a bio. Permalink 2020-07-04 20:16:18+00:00

@nntaleb Except for @GrantSSC training videos are mostly trainers theorizing to the camera, sometimes 95% of the time. Not good for people with short attention spans (like myself). With Grant, you see short videos of movement. Permalink 2020-07-04 18:41:27+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ You can complain that Youtube should not cancel him as it should be open to all. But DO NOT claim that someone is repressing “science”. There is no science. Permalink 2020-07-04 17:47:53+00:00

@nntaleb Charlatan @StefanMolyneux promoted quackeries as scientific facts (incl country IQ) to >1 million YouTube subscribers. Includes episode abt me. His Youtube was cancelled. Don’t tell me it was about science. There is no “science”. It’s about hate. Permalink 2020-07-04 17:42:19+00:00

@nntaleb Charlatan @StefanMolyneux promoted quackeries as scientific facts (incl country IQ) to >1 million YouTube subscribers. Includes episode abt me. His Youtube was cancelled. Don’t tell me it was about science. There is no “science”. It’s about hate. Permalink 2020-07-04 17:38:24+00:00

@nntaleb They normalized. Ha! Permalink 2020-07-04 17:20:34+00:00

@nntaleb I meant @PTetlock Permalink 2020-07-04 16:25:49+00:00

@nntaleb Has nothing to do with shame/no shame. Has to do with binarization of people into groups. We Meds may want to be multiculturals because WE cross many cultures. Nobody shd be able to stop us. Permalink 2020-07-04 16:24:07+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed. But it is prevalent in universities & state policies. Permalink 2020-07-04 16:17:02+00:00

@nntaleb Then why does Arabism cling to a monolithic identity? It is pure fascism. Permalink 2020-07-04 16:12:02+00:00

@nntaleb Here are the levels of understanding of probability. Many people discuss probability without knowing what it means: someone like @Ptelock comes at bottom. Permalink 2020-07-04 16:11:02+00:00

@nntaleb Great. Plomin makes a critical mistake nobody noticed: 1) transitivity and 2) noise (he himself wrote that you correlation at .8 with your own scores). Permalink 2020-07-04 16:07:56+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-04 15:01:26+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-04 15:01:01+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-04 15:00:38+00:00

@nntaleb My point is that you cannot do “science” without knowing & rigorously applying statistics & you cannot do statistics without knowing & rigorously applying mathematical statistics & you cannot do mathematical statistics without knowing & rigorously applying probability theory. Permalink 2020-07-04 14:35:55+00:00

@nntaleb I blocked a lot of responders repeating “look at empirical evidence” or “this is science” used by mountebanks such as @charlesmurray, @primalpoly, and ignorant psychologists. Permalink 2020-07-04 14:24:56+00:00

@nntaleb Do Average not Total. Also as a discipline use n>10K since it is a free option This you can do analytically, simple binomial. Permalink 2020-07-04 14:21:52+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t get it. Permalink 2020-07-04 14:18:55+00:00

@nntaleb There is a sinister racist-eugenist program tying intelligence to race, meant to degrade populations, with policy implications on welfare, immigration, & more sinister matters. The country IQ is fake news, entirely concocted. AND IT IS CONTINUING! Permalink 2020-07-04 14:15:23+00:00

@nntaleb Localism means focusing on water and electricity rather than geopolitics and Iran/Saudi Arabia, etc. Permalink 2020-07-03 21:28:21+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-03 20:09:18+00:00

@nntaleb Actually loglogplot gives…worse. Permalink 2020-07-03 19:44:39+00:00

@nntaleb You mean with math? Permalink 2020-07-03 18:38:08+00:00

@nntaleb Losing weight has its disadvantages! On texhné-epistemé by Big time Tommy https://youtu.be/WnPXkbpqlIk via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-03 18:31:16+00:00

@nntaleb The cook for RWRI Permalink 2020-07-03 18:24:40+00:00

@nntaleb I block conspiracy theorists. Sorry nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-03 15:23:30+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile! Permalink 2020-07-03 15:22:15+00:00

@nntaleb 1/n Attention #LebanonProtests The US ambassador may be a great person with great intentions but it is not a good idea to associate the protests w/a foreign entity & GEOPOLITICS. This WILL make the problem geopolitical w/East-West tensions when it is entirely local. #Localism Permalink 2020-07-03 11:44:09+00:00

@nntaleb Fuck the French. They got the sophistication in the Levant/Med during the Crusades: sorbet from Tripoli, scalions from Ashkelon, sauces with herbs from the Levant/Mediterranean. Permalink 2020-07-03 10:55:45+00:00

@nntaleb foreword Permalink 2020-07-03 10:53:14+00:00

@nntaleb I thought it came from Safaitic… mayy etc. Permalink 2020-07-03 10:35:26+00:00

@nntaleb Have you see this? It spread a lot. Permalink 2020-07-03 10:16:34+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, please help correct this foreward. Thanks Permalink 2020-07-03 10:12:07+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-03 09:31:06+00:00

@nntaleb It is so much easier to do it online. Many more people can participate who could not afford a trip to NY Permalink 2020-07-03 09:25:58+00:00

@nntaleb 2) French descends from Latin. LEvantine DOES NOT descend from Fus7a. Semitic languages are more diffuse. Permalink 2020-07-03 09:23:57+00:00

@nntaleb 1) In PRINCIPIA POLITICA I give examples of Arab fascism: just imposing an identity on someone is fascism. Why is it OK to be a BAsque/Catalan separatist but not a localist in Leb? The left is very sympathetic to this. Permalink 2020-07-03 09:23:17+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Extremely sorry for the inconvenience. Permalink 2020-07-03 00:42:21+00:00

@nntaleb It s the same music, Words@change Permalink 2020-07-02 21:48:32+00:00

@nntaleb Nor did her father… Permalink 2020-07-02 20:07:57+00:00

@nntaleb ETHICS: never look for studies as backup for argument, derive arguments from studies. You get caught. Crackpots are so desperate to show that masks don’t work that they link to any study: turns out nonpeer-reviewed, never cited in 4 y, in a nonjournal but industry magazine. Permalink 2020-07-02 20:03:00+00:00

@nntaleb For our seminar we can hire instructors offshore now that we are online. Permalink 2020-07-02 19:47:05+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t need a visa to work remote… and more and more people are doing so. Permalink 2020-07-02 19:33:36+00:00

@nntaleb Avoid socialites; never befriend rich & famous people who mosly socialize with rich & famous people. Permalink 2020-07-02 17:14:52+00:00

@nntaleb …particularly squid ink! Permalink 2020-07-02 16:33:51+00:00

@nntaleb I do not think much of #DominicCummings (@yaneerbaryam & I wrote he gets complexity backwards). But the impostor’s @PTetlock’s “superforecasters” is far worse: a vast deception –similar to screening for rectal cancer using the Department of Motor Vehicles’ standing eye exam. Permalink 2020-07-02 16:33:02+00:00

@nntaleb Bought! Permalink 2020-07-02 15:49:42+00:00

@nntaleb It is not statistically significant. Why? Fat Tails. Permalink 2020-07-02 15:29:48+00:00

@nntaleb Michael Levitt is banking on his Nobel in… chemistry to apply Ord differential Equa on a stochastic time series! By DEFINITION a stochastic time series is NOWHERE DIFFERENTIABLE (except via smoothing function, which is circular). This crackpot caters to RightWing conspiracies https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1277278261979090945 Permalink 2020-07-02 15:24:22+00:00

@nntaleb It is crap outside London, Paris, NY, Brooklyn… But very good in these cities. Permalink 2020-07-02 15:08:48+00:00

@nntaleb This one is good: explains an aspect of skin in the game: revelation of preferences. Permalink 2020-07-02 13:43:59+00:00

@nntaleb If you want to be a bit disturbed: if Socrates lived today he would look much more like this guy than a nerdy philosophy professor checking student grades & academic rank who happens to lecture on Socrates. https://youtu.be/6VWD5ZMMp1U via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-02 13:32:18+00:00

@nntaleb No connection, just interest. Permalink 2020-07-02 12:51:02+00:00

@nntaleb Bert, visit Beirut when I am there. Permalink 2020-07-02 12:40:56+00:00

@nntaleb Mediterraneo orientale, non lo so esattamente Permalink 2020-07-02 11:57:55+00:00

@nntaleb …and the highest resolution, of course, is Aleppo’s. Permalink 2020-07-02 11:53:27+00:00

@nntaleb Scenarios are TOTAL BS under thick tails! Permalink 2020-07-02 11:22:57+00:00

@nntaleb Trying to explain the difference between Greek, Turkish, and Lebanese food. They’re all similar but Lebanese food is higher resolution. Permalink 2020-07-02 11:16:41+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-02 10:29:20+00:00

@nntaleb If Permalink 2020-07-02 02:03:21+00:00

@nntaleb https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchResults?kn=Peter+Brown%27s+%22The+World+of+Late+Antiquity%2C%22&kn=Peter+Brown%27s+%22The+World+of+Late+Antiquity%2C%22&sortby=17&cm_sp=inline-_-kn-_-search Permalink 2020-07-02 01:45:25+00:00

@nntaleb Harry is a card carrying member of our Mask Wearing- BS Buster Probability Brigade. MW-BSBPB, formerly BSBPB Permalink 2020-07-02 01:44:36+00:00

@nntaleb 1 min Permalink 2020-07-02 00:32:00+00:00

@nntaleb Nice travel suitcase. Very nice. Permalink 2020-07-02 00:30:39+00:00

@nntaleb I have an extra copy of the real thing somewhere. You must return to Amazon. Was printed by a robot. Permalink 2020-07-02 00:09:20+00:00

@nntaleb Not a subset. Conditional probability. Permalink 2020-07-02 00:03:08+00:00

@nntaleb Then tried dried pasta. Worked beautifully. Permalink 2020-07-01 23:06:40+00:00

@nntaleb I tried pasta. Best ingredients, so went for fresh pasta. Failed miserably with fresh pasta: was not aldente, rather the reverse. Wonder why dried pasta is better than fresh. Permalink 2020-07-01 23:00:17+00:00

@nntaleb THIS IS A SCAM. Do not send $$Dear @YouTube This is a SCAM. I have been reporting for 24 hours. They are impersonating me. Even sent my passport screenshot to show it was not my channel. I know of 20 people who reported. Why is @Youtube so slow in reacting? Permalink 2020-07-01 22:15:20+00:00

@nntaleb Scam alert! Not me Permalink 2020-07-01 21:57:59+00:00

@nntaleb If you like my oeuvre you should hate nitpicking. Permalink 2020-07-01 19:16:20+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-01 18:41:51+00:00

@nntaleb Friends of Maestro @CutTheKnotMath, RIP I am writing an intro to the book on Probability riddles, please share anecdotes if you have one. Permalink 2020-07-01 18:11:37+00:00

@nntaleb Speaking a language is NOT speeches & declamations but conversation. For 500 years Europe used Latin without speaking it. Mafhum? Permalink 2020-07-01 17:35:22+00:00

@nntaleb (Ignoring the false positives/false negatives as too small an effect here) Permalink 2020-07-01 17:12:16+00:00

@nntaleb ANSWER (FRAMEWORK): We can use this very simple approach for conditional probability: if those who tested have more positives in them. So much less than 1%, with some information we can get closer. Permalink 2020-07-01 17:09:04+00:00

@nntaleb QUESTION If ~1% of people tested in NY test positive, assuming nonrandom testing, what is the proportion of people infected? Permalink 2020-07-01 16:26:25+00:00

@nntaleb In Lebanon it used to be Christians who loved Classical Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-01 16:17:31+00:00

@nntaleb It is actually (partly) here in our debate with Ioannidis. I would not debate @Ptetlock Permalink 2020-07-01 15:48:54+00:00

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-07-01 15:39:10+00:00

@nntaleb What kind of nonsense is this? Because I debunk bullshitters everyone is not a bullshitter. Permalink 2020-07-01 15:38:38+00:00

@nntaleb Tetlock is an academic fraud. A total academic fraud. More, later. Permalink 2020-07-01 15:27:38+00:00

@nntaleb Why is Arabic the world’s most difficult language to learn?(“fus7a” & “modern literary arabic”) Simply because it is NOT spoken. And @Safaitic & @PhDniX showed was NEVER spoken as such. It’s a COMPLICATED literary construction by poets/scholars. Local languages are EASY. Permalink 2020-07-01 15:24:33+00:00

@nntaleb Yes but my objective is to be a human, which includes some strength, not to become strong. Molto differente Permalink 2020-06-30 19:59:03+00:00

@nntaleb One week… We sold out the first printing! Permalink 2020-06-30 19:36:56+00:00

@nntaleb Merci Permalink 2020-06-30 19:31:57+00:00

@nntaleb Neither, in Jan. Quarantine/Reduced mobility. Permalink 2020-06-30 19:28:50+00:00

@nntaleb Two ways to look at it. Permalink 2020-06-30 18:54:52+00:00

@nntaleb FRAUD ALERT Permalink 2020-06-30 18:42:28+00:00

@nntaleb No, it is not (1.01)^365 since I used Log[deaths date t]-Log[deaths date t-1] so my growth rate is the exponential one. Hece Exp[365/100]. Look at code above. Permalink 2020-06-30 18:34:09+00:00

@nntaleb They are not @nntaleb’s ideas. Permalink 2020-06-30 18:31:30+00:00

@nntaleb Here is my code Permalink 2020-06-30 18:12:47+00:00

@nntaleb Actually the graph is using true exponential growth, so Exp[365/100] Permalink 2020-06-30 17:47:15+00:00

@nntaleb COVID-19 Just a reminder that something that keeps growing at 1% a day gets multiplied by 38 in one year. Permalink 2020-06-30 17:35:44+00:00

@nntaleb Doesn’t count unless you start from the floor. Permalink 2020-06-30 15:37:16+00:00

@nntaleb No its speed is preasymptotic and distribution specific Permalink 2020-06-30 12:55:06+00:00

@nntaleb There is no depth. Simply, LLN Permalink 2020-06-30 12:27:38+00:00

@nntaleb Il faut attendre un peu. J’ai un format. A suivre Permalink 2020-06-30 12:14:32+00:00

@nntaleb Lorenzo there is not much more in the book. All about LLN Permalink 2020-06-30 12:06:20+00:00

@nntaleb On devrait collaborer sur le “country IQ”. J’ai vu vos commentaires. Permalink 2020-06-30 11:15:24+00:00

@nntaleb I made mistakes in that direction. Never the other. Permalink 2020-06-30 11:11:48+00:00

@nntaleb No no no, not what i am saying! Centralism is function dependent. Benoux is in bad faith. Permalink 2020-06-29 20:15:08+00:00

@nntaleb Akademik? Permalink 2020-06-29 19:00:07+00:00

@nntaleb More interesting is the plural of تبع. We say تبعولي In Zahlé they say تبعيني The plural for تاع is تاعولي @QifaNabki Permalink 2020-06-29 17:24:20+00:00

@nntaleb Sel-fulfillment is PRECISELY what it is not. BS term in the “success” literature. Permalink 2020-06-29 17:04:31+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! If origin is just متاع why do people in East Beirut and North say تبع for the same thing? In Amioun we use تبع for تاع and متاعين for former semi-serfs (before 1860 those who wer subjects of a feudal lord) Permalink 2020-06-29 16:49:38+00:00

@nntaleb No no no no. Use loglogplot (Zipf plot) Permalink 2020-06-29 16:10:05+00:00

@nntaleb Linguam. Lungua = rwéya Permalink 2020-06-29 15:33:39+00:00

@nntaleb Pierre dove hai imparato l’italiano? Permalink 2020-06-29 15:28:45+00:00

@nntaleb Va bene in italiano? “L’assenza di prove non è una prova di assenza” Permalink 2020-06-29 15:14:56+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots, Mr Hazel. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-29 14:40:45+00:00

@nntaleb Karoun is Armenian, my friend. Permalink 2020-06-29 13:55:42+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-29 13:54:11+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t need a lot of data for Lindy. just prove it is a power law. 5 points suffice! Permalink 2020-06-29 13:52:21+00:00

@nntaleb A person stopped cycling when his odometer ceased to function, waiting for a replacement. He felt his cycling “did not count”. This explains the difference between an academic & a real scholar. Permalink 2020-06-29 13:41:49+00:00

@nntaleb Lindy does not mean alpha = 2 Permalink 2020-06-29 13:33:11+00:00

@nntaleb All, depends on structure. Megacorps are borderline Permalink 2020-06-29 13:02:08+00:00

@nntaleb Am I the first to notice that she has a remarkable lung capacity to shout and scream but none for a surgical mask? Permalink 2020-06-29 12:39:28+00:00

@nntaleb These are specific villages under Maronite feudal lords Permalink 2020-06-29 12:34:17+00:00

@nntaleb In Amioun we use Tab3ak and Mte3in to describe people from poor villages. Permalink 2020-06-29 12:25:59+00:00

@nntaleb ذو Permalink 2020-06-29 11:44:00+00:00

@nntaleb Weyn inta? Fransa؟ Permalink 2020-06-29 11:16:32+00:00

@nntaleb Why is it that in Achrafieh it is تبعك? Different root? Permalink 2020-06-29 11:14:32+00:00

@nntaleb Lebanon. Going there but must be tested twice. 4 days after arrival. Permalink 2020-06-29 11:08:51+00:00

@nntaleb I did not block Benoux because he is bullshitter (he is). I blocked him because he is in BAD FAITH. Gabish? @jbarrpartarr Permalink 2020-06-29 10:58:07+00:00

@nntaleb In Egyptian becomes بتاعك . Just wondering abt ancient forms. Permalink 2020-06-29 10:44:54+00:00

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL RIDDLE DU JOUR In Maltese & South Med (& Beirut’s Basta), yours is Tiegħek, تاعك but there is no obvious Semitic root. Hebrew is שלך and Arabic is clumsy خاصة بك Can it be that تبعك => تابع لك comes from it? Coincidence w/ the Latin “tua”! What is the @safaitic? Permalink 2020-06-29 10:43:52+00:00

@nntaleb Advice: buy something already built. Lots of unexpected problems. Sallmé khebzek lal khebbéz wlaw akal nesso! Permalink 2020-06-29 01:53:01+00:00

@nntaleb Noura is very very good. Maybe the colors in the picture. Permalink 2020-06-29 01:29:45+00:00

@nntaleb Oh no! Permalink 2020-06-29 00:29:36+00:00

@nntaleb É. Min l Ashrafié. M2abil mat3am Al Mayyas min ma jeddé eja senet 1923. Permalink 2020-06-28 23:36:43+00:00

@nntaleb Actually, being practically from Beirut (3rd generation, though officially from Ancestral Amioun), I can spot the quality of hummus from a picture. Let’s see. Permalink 2020-06-28 23:01:07+00:00

@nntaleb You are realllllly looking for trouble. There are secrets & tricks that are NOT in the recipe books. Permalink 2020-06-28 20:53:35+00:00

@nntaleb Yes when the ship is drowning you need to sit down and worry about geopolitics. It is people saying such crap that are the cause of the disaster. Permalink 2020-06-28 18:21:53+00:00

@nntaleb Guru! Are you 59 now? Permalink 2020-06-28 18:03:21+00:00

@nntaleb Do you see ME taking instructions from some slow-thinking wage-slave bureaucrat? Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-06-28 18:00:21+00:00

@nntaleb 3) Why keep Global Politics for later. [Chapter in SITG] Permalink 2020-06-28 17:58:37+00:00

@nntaleb You read too much global politics propaganda. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:55:56+00:00

@nntaleb In principle, any municipality is a private co-op group. Making it one single owner can be a problem. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:54:39+00:00

@nntaleb False dichotomy. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:24:09+00:00

@nntaleb 2) The idiots at the US State Dept should also stay out of finance. The incompetent US ambassador in #Lebanon made statements supporting #RiadPonzi the most dangerous central banker in history. This is economically and ethically unacceptable, Ambassador shd keep mouth shut. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:23:19+00:00

@nntaleb Re: US Ambassador in #Lebanon, ftntes -Severe problems require coordination & harmony, & the U.S. State Dept is playing GEOPOLITICS at the wrong time -USSD employees are mostly dangerously clueless #IYI interventionistas who see the world ONLY in terms of Geopolitics #localism Permalink 2020-06-28 17:19:49+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ For books you reread, read both text and footnotes. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:18:05+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-28 17:06:45+00:00

@nntaleb For popular books, read the text, not the footnotes. For scholarly books, read the footnotes, not the text. For social science books, read neither text nor footnote. Permalink 2020-06-28 16:43:57+00:00

@nntaleb What do you mean? That one should answer this? The paper answers it but one needs to know distributions. Permalink 2020-06-28 16:38:08+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, strangely. Grant, my basement floor is slightly uneven (house built in 1928). Makes one side heavier. Any problem? Permalink 2020-06-28 16:32:35+00:00

@nntaleb You will note that our answer to Ioannidis is… in a footnote. The rest is on how to deal with pandemics. Permalink 2020-06-28 16:30:28+00:00

@nntaleb They have > life expectancy, INCLUDING suicide. Permalink 2020-06-28 16:24:32+00:00

@nntaleb Spyros don’t be modest. We all learn from you! Permalink 2020-06-28 16:19:09+00:00

@nntaleb Debate with Ioannidis is live! Scientific papers are in, after the initial blog posts. https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/covid-19-ioannidis-vs-taleb/ with @yaneerbaryam @DrCirillo Thanks @pierrepinson & @spyrosmakrid ! Permalink 2020-06-28 16:16:12+00:00

@nntaleb OK, OK, Monday Permalink 2020-06-28 01:52:00+00:00

@nntaleb One of their olive oil suppliers told me it was the most reliable brand in America. In tests they were among the 4/~30 who did not cheat with their claims of extra virgin. Permalink 2020-06-27 23:35:47+00:00

@nntaleb The Mask Wearing BS Busting Probability Brigade has 1) Classico Tiramisu, and 2) White Tiramisu. In quantities! Permalink 2020-06-27 23:17:13+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking idiot this is NOT what I am saying. Permalink 2020-06-27 20:53:34+00:00

@nntaleb All these “distances” are WRONG because of endogamy. I am redoing techniques for distance… See paper Permalink 2020-06-27 20:50:15+00:00

@nntaleb IQ follow up Trying to explain the difference between racism, homophily, and xenophobia in Principia Politica. The most destructively racists of all are IQ/evolutionary psychologists (often “centrists”) trying to put abilities in genetic boxes (the covert eugenist program). Permalink 2020-06-27 20:24:20+00:00

@nntaleb The most reliable! 100% of my cooking. Permalink 2020-06-27 19:05:04+00:00

@nntaleb Academics try to pass for scholars. Very very few are. Dentists, plumbers, grocers, or elephant trainers try to pass for dentists, plumbers, grocers, or elephant trainers, respectively. Almost all are. #Skininthegame Permalink 2020-06-27 18:51:32+00:00

@nntaleb Psychologists & pple who deal with IQ bullshit their way w/categories. I am 1- not lonely (exact opposite, fucking idiot) 2- hostile only to those who mess with me or my weaker friends. But then, verryyyyyyyy hostile 3- veryyyyy arrogant w/the arrogant. More than you think. Permalink 2020-06-27 18:25:53+00:00

@nntaleb Temperature in the center not edges. Permalink 2020-06-27 17:18:23+00:00

@nntaleb THanks Hugo. Problem solved! It foams every time. Permalink 2020-06-27 17:08:18+00:00

@nntaleb This map is fraud. Block the imbecile. Permalink 2020-06-27 13:18:03+00:00

@nntaleb Human accomplishment is gerrymandering: All are Meds not former Barbarians Permalink 2020-06-27 13:13:49+00:00

@nntaleb Stop the masquerade, your honor @JustinWelby “To pass for a Jew or a Nabatean [“Arabes”], a Roman had to pierce his ears or get circumcized, but to pass for a Gaul he needed to put chalk on his face…” [rephrased] Petronius, Satiricon It is Northern Europeans who were outsiders Permalink 2020-06-27 12:21:38+00:00

@nntaleb Yes many of these things are BS. Haplo are real. Permalink 2020-06-27 11:59:59+00:00

@nntaleb “Centrist” is also a nice formulation that gives cover to Eugenists — evolutionary psychogists and IQ classifiers trying to put not just people but populations into an IQ-based Apartheid. Permalink 2020-06-27 10:40:08+00:00

@nntaleb With all due respects, you honor @JustinWelby (Archbishop of Canterburry), stop producing racist BS. Permalink 2020-06-27 10:16:55+00:00

@nntaleb The Archbishop of Canterburry needs some fact checking: The Christ was not different from Greco-Romans. https://link.medium.com/C67bNgJpw7 Permalink 2020-06-27 10:13:13+00:00

@nntaleb When people define themselves as “centrists”, it is often because they are afraid for their reputation. People with integrity define themselves as “it depends on the issue”. Permalink 2020-06-26 22:47:19+00:00

@nntaleb How do you say scapellamente a destra in Lebanese? Permalink 2020-06-26 22:14:02+00:00

@nntaleb Venice has its Sarcelles: Mestre. Permalink 2020-06-26 21:25:35+00:00

@nntaleb Unfair I lost 12 lbs! Permalink 2020-06-26 20:26:59+00:00

@nntaleb In cauda probatio Permalink 2020-06-26 20:12:56+00:00

@nntaleb DEBATE WITH IOANNIDIS It took me 20 years to clearly formulate the idea that distributional evidence IS the strongest evidence, above naive observational evidence. cc:@PrecPrinciple @RupertRead Permalink 2020-06-26 20:04:05+00:00

@nntaleb Maybe someone from Koura as we say “mwayy” for mayy, Ipwad for Ipad, etc. [Koura shift] Permalink 2020-06-26 19:55:08+00:00

@nntaleb Margarita ante porcos Permalink 2020-06-26 18:59:52+00:00

@nntaleb Using logic with an antagonist is like eating a bison steak with a tea spoon. Permalink 2020-06-26 17:47:07+00:00

@nntaleb Mar7aba Buthayné. Tlabté skolarship la #RWRI? Permalink 2020-06-26 16:50:28+00:00

@nntaleb When was the last time you were in Lebanon? Permalink 2020-06-26 16:48:57+00:00

@nntaleb BULLSHIT Permalink 2020-06-26 15:41:48+00:00

@nntaleb The fragmented & “failed” states in Italy during their mess, CORRUPTION, INSTABILITY, wars,produced: Michelangelo,Brunelleschi, Pico d Mirandola, Machiavelli, Da Vinci, Galileo, SP Basilica, Doges Palace, Sistine C,Palestrina, Monteverdi, Cimabue, Bocaggio, Petrarch… #Lebanon Permalink 2020-06-26 15:40:26+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking idiot you don’t need a qualifier before posting something I said. Why are you hedging yourself? Permalink 2020-06-26 13:58:39+00:00

@nntaleb I mean what is to come. Permalink 2020-06-26 00:27:58+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed. The standards of living are much better IF you have a steady income. Even the safety. It is just geopolitics… Permalink 2020-06-25 23:49:44+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed, more surprising. Permalink 2020-06-25 23:46:51+00:00

@nntaleb I blocked him because he is a bullshitter and I have some allergy. Here he proved to be an insensitive racist. Permalink 2020-06-25 23:12:59+00:00

@nntaleb The essence of #BLM is that African Americans are mistreated, & that imbecile Mark Manson trying to gerrymander with other origins is insulting (BTW the census classifies all Mediterraneans as white). This is vicious. It is about a community that continues to suffer. Permalink 2020-06-25 22:56:32+00:00

@nntaleb That sub-imbecile Mark Manson should not decide on people’s race and POC is an insulting designation. Permalink 2020-06-25 22:45:36+00:00

@nntaleb Starting in 8 minutes. Permalink 2020-06-25 21:22:38+00:00

@nntaleb It was it the Talmud אין הקדוש ברוך הוא מכה את ישראל אלא אם כן בורא להם רפואה תחילה Permalink 2020-06-25 19:11:53+00:00

@nntaleb הקדים רפואה למכה Permalink 2020-06-25 19:05:25+00:00

@nntaleb Fake news from Dwaihi Permalink 2020-06-25 19:04:14+00:00

@nntaleb @dailyjobs_lb Permalink 2020-06-25 18:58:23+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-06-25 18:44:11+00:00

@nntaleb The wise @davidboxenhorn once said: The Lord gives you the remedy first, then the disease Works permits frozen? No problemo: companies are now geared for remote work, can hire someone overseas & keep her/him in their parent’s basement #Indians, #Lebanese don’t need to emigrate Permalink 2020-06-25 18:40:43+00:00

@nntaleb My NY stove is different, a bit high. It is not foaming as well as the one down South. Too high a flame and it is black. Too low, same story. Solution, Maestro Ugo? Permalink 2020-06-25 18:20:32+00:00

@nntaleb The same NYT published crap abt why one should not react, even psycho-pathologized worriers. We got a lot of flack for our Jan 26 piece. Same w/2008 crisis: published a hit piece on me by that fraud Joe Nocera @opinion_joe then flipped & said we shd have see warning signs. Permalink 2020-06-25 17:34:59+00:00

@nntaleb He was never banned. I just gave him a hard time because of his name. Permalink 2020-06-25 15:14:29+00:00

@nntaleb You were amply discussed @alexandersquats @trishankkarthik @VergilDen Permalink 2020-06-25 14:54:35+00:00

@nntaleb مطعم Permalink 2020-06-25 14:54:06+00:00

@nntaleb The error: We NEVER play Russian Roulette with collective risks. Only with individual risks. #PrecautionaryPrinciple #ScaleTransformation Permalink 2020-06-25 14:35:58+00:00

@nntaleb Voila your answer Permalink 2020-06-25 14:01:35+00:00

@nntaleb New York [Meeting of the Mask Wearing BS Busting Probability Brigade, MW-BSBPB, formerly BSBPB] Permalink 2020-06-25 12:52:28+00:00

@nntaleb You are using a Brikka, not this. Permalink 2020-06-25 12:48:25+00:00

@nntaleb Found it. Replied. Permalink 2020-06-25 12:47:22+00:00

@nntaleb What are you using? Permalink 2020-06-25 12:43:03+00:00

@nntaleb I meant there was no email from you or any Cypriot national in my inbox. Permalink 2020-06-25 12:42:38+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t understand that COVID probabilities scale up because of contagion. Permalink 2020-06-25 12:08:29+00:00

@nntaleb No email Permalink 2020-06-25 11:35:54+00:00

@nntaleb I am not following the fight but I love fights! Permalink 2020-06-25 10:45:31+00:00

@nntaleb When I was a trader, “he’s a nice guy” meant “he’s an idiot”. Permalink 2020-06-24 22:06:00+00:00

@nntaleb You guys never heard me speak when I cross madfun. Automatically 100% kouroné, cursing 90% of the sentences. 7sen met my mother. Permalink 2020-06-24 22:04:54+00:00

@nntaleb Haybe bitballesh bi “mawta mawtek ya seyyed” Permalink 2020-06-24 21:56:59+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-24 21:51:22+00:00

@nntaleb In Amioun pple insult one another to be friendly, Bil m7abbé. You tell someone “y2abbrak mawték” or “yel3an abul khala2ak” a= “welcome”. Telling someone “we have better kebbe” is not an insult, but a sign of humorous respect. I wonder if it is common elsewhere. @Marcellenassif Permalink 2020-06-24 21:42:55+00:00

@nntaleb And we are known to have the WORSE sense of humor of all the Levant. Permalink 2020-06-24 21:38:34+00:00

@nntaleb Amioun is better. Better olives, higher mountains, nicer accent, better kebbe. Permalink 2020-06-24 21:35:25+00:00

@nntaleb This fellow figured out what almost (perhaps all) psychologists of probability got wrong (why I call “superforecasters” a masquerade). Permalink 2020-06-24 21:32:53+00:00

@nntaleb Usurpation! Olives = Koura. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:59:30+00:00

@nntaleb Never called you a bullshitter. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:52:49+00:00

@nntaleb No need to respond to such stupidity. He did not get our idea. There are ONLY 72 pandemics >1000 people in recorded history. We are using conditional distribution. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:52:11+00:00

@nntaleb Something is hitting soon re:Armenia and migrations. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:45:43+00:00

@nntaleb They don’t do it for a living. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:45:03+00:00

@nntaleb There are other people I will not expose as bullshitters because I broke bread with them. With Tetlock (Phil the Rat🐁@PTetlock) I waited for him to violate certain golden rules of trust before exposing him. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:38:33+00:00

@nntaleb Fukuyama is a triple bullshitter. Graeber is not. I may not like his research but he is not a BS vendor. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:32:47+00:00

@nntaleb Can you use LateX ? Spreads faster on Twitter. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:29:13+00:00

@nntaleb I never call him a bullshitter. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:17:57+00:00

@nntaleb 22-26% proportion of blue/green eyes. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:17:33+00:00

@nntaleb Is there such a thing as an erasable tatoo? Permalink 2020-06-24 19:14:57+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, I am looking to find someone I’ve called a bullshitter who did not eventually turn out to be one. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:13:54+00:00

@nntaleb The rule is people who get tatoos can no longer translate the Incerto. No dispensation was given so far. Permalink 2020-06-24 18:56:13+00:00

@nntaleb My 2nd copy of your book is on the way Permalink 2020-06-24 18:08:33+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Permalink 2020-06-24 15:48:35+00:00

@nntaleb Psychologist commenting on the IQ piece: “(…) but the correlation…” Me: “Define correlation” Psychologist: “…” (silence) Permalink 2020-06-24 15:26:46+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, he should not diss & pathologize IQ and heritability sceptics. Permalink 2020-06-24 15:22:51+00:00

@nntaleb Not about him but this “denialism” crap IS a cover for both racism & centralization. Permalink 2020-06-24 15:15:26+00:00

@nntaleb Les disputes avec Douady sont en français. Permalink 2020-06-24 14:11:30+00:00

@nntaleb Racism exists AND is promoted by these IQ fucks. No need to be soft on BOTH racism AND pseudoscience. Gabish? Permalink 2020-06-24 14:10:24+00:00

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-06-24 13:17:11+00:00

@nntaleb It is actually a function of correlation, no need for Gaussian to compute MI. Permalink 2020-06-24 13:13:45+00:00

@nntaleb I have the code. Will post in 2 h. Permalink 2020-06-24 13:12:32+00:00

@nntaleb No Permalink 2020-06-24 12:50:32+00:00

@nntaleb The fundamental mistake is transitivity of correlation. Plus others of course. Permalink 2020-06-24 11:56:12+00:00

@nntaleb I am not condemning him, condemning the “IQ denial” stance. Permalink 2020-06-24 11:33:24+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Permalink 2020-06-24 10:28:15+00:00

@nntaleb There is an economist who does the stuff, based at George Mason U. I engaged. Total idiot, can’t remember his name. Permalink 2020-06-24 10:07:10+00:00

@nntaleb This imbecile just showed how info on IQ is manufactured from left tail. IN SPITE OF CHERRYPICKED EXAMPLE +IQ self-correlate at .8: you have ~1 STD difference w/yourself. +Death ∆ betw top brackets=.2, obviously average has no impact. My point! Permalink 2020-06-24 10:04:41+00:00

@nntaleb Derida mon cher… Permalink 2020-06-23 23:41:14+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots Permalink 2020-06-23 21:20:27+00:00

@nntaleb My stance on IQ has NOTHING to do with my origins (which rightwing crackpots s.a.@kentaronline don’t know): country IQ is, as I said a fraud: it was NEVER measured (& if it were, you’d have some v. serious surprises). I keep getting these msgs since my IQ piece by RW crackpots Permalink 2020-06-23 20:55:09+00:00

@nntaleb Human nature cannot change. Our structures must. Permalink 2020-06-23 19:51:24+00:00

@nntaleb I managed to tell France Culture (French ratio) that (unlike their scientists), their intellectuals were BS operators (and have been at least since Julien Benda’s Trahison des Clercs, ~95 y ago). It is equivalent to insulting Catholicism standing in the Vatican in 1933. Permalink 2020-06-23 19:22:35+00:00

@nntaleb Higher level, my friend. Permalink 2020-06-23 18:27:53+00:00

@nntaleb Something is, but not captured by their metrics. Permalink 2020-06-23 18:20:51+00:00

@nntaleb Here is my IQ piece. Permalink 2020-06-23 16:23:00+00:00

@nntaleb Tripple imbecile, Plomin’s data OVERSTATES heritability. Your tabula rasa argument does not apply. Permalink 2020-06-23 16:08:38+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed IQ is sinister pseudoscience, so calling someone an “IQ denier” or “heritability denier” is insulting the entier process of science. Evolutionary Psychologists are frausters in a citation ring. Permalink 2020-06-23 15:44:56+00:00

@nntaleb Great! Thanks Permalink 2020-06-23 15:35:37+00:00

@nntaleb Gene he does not know about a certain computer scientist who lost his job in computer science while NOT writing about computer science. Permalink 2020-06-23 15:23:12+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-06-23 15:13:25+00:00

@nntaleb These programs principally support Fed employees (such as Daly) in their future job prospects on Wall Street which rewards people who comply thanks to the revolving door. Permalink 2020-06-23 14:06:17+00:00

@nntaleb New stove, in NY. Not working as well. Can we recap? 1) Should the flame be higher or lower? 2) Should I increase at the end? Thanks! Permalink 2020-06-23 14:04:31+00:00

@nntaleb Ha! The institution is not free. I am. Permalink 2020-06-23 14:02:44+00:00

@nntaleb He was not free before becoming famous. And he is the true exception. Permalink 2020-06-23 13:41:51+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, there is NO discipline that allows one to write freely even within the least political subjects. Permalink 2020-06-23 13:38:20+00:00

@nntaleb J’explique les choses en français (enfin j’essaye), 17 minutes de conversation. Permalink 2020-06-23 12:39:00+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get it. Sorry. Permalink 2020-06-23 12:11:58+00:00

@nntaleb Explain to me why I shd give a fuck about how I “look” to you. Permalink 2020-06-23 11:47:55+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry but I block people for sophistry. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-23 11:44:35+00:00

@nntaleb ACADEMIC “FREEDOM” The illusion held for so long by academics that one can be both free & on a salary is finally crashing. Worse, something J-P Sartre figured out: you cannot be both free & attached to an institution. Any institution. A truck driver is freer than any academic. Permalink 2020-06-23 11:28:46+00:00

@nntaleb This is excellent. From you? Permalink 2020-06-23 03:34:37+00:00

@nntaleb Claire, by now you should realize that I have no more use for you, neither for the good nor for the bad. No use at all. Permalink 2020-06-23 02:02:35+00:00

@nntaleb OK redid with Imam Permalink 2020-06-23 01:38:28+00:00

@nntaleb Ponit enim personam amici cum induit iudicis [Cicero]” والله ما ترك لي الحق من صاحب” [Imam Ali] Permalink 2020-06-23 01:38:09+00:00

@nntaleb I mean the protocol Permalink 2020-06-23 01:34:59+00:00

@nntaleb How should I write it? Permalink 2020-06-23 01:33:57+00:00

@nntaleb Mtl l siyese l yunéné: “disown your friends when you reach office”. Permalink 2020-06-23 01:26:26+00:00

@nntaleb كيف بتترجما علغتنا؟ Permalink 2020-06-23 01:10:53+00:00

@nntaleb La2, ghayron. Permalink 2020-06-23 01:06:38+00:00

@nntaleb نهج البلاغة؟ Permalink 2020-06-23 00:56:20+00:00

@nntaleb The 2 of you are supposed to be fighting, as a good thing for #RWRI Permalink 2020-06-23 00:37:51+00:00

@nntaleb The Byzantine-Sassanite war of 602-620. We need @DrMichaelBonner to get its importance. Permalink 2020-06-23 00:36:49+00:00

@nntaleb وين هيدا؟ من النهج؟ Permalink 2020-06-23 00:33:23+00:00

@nntaleb They LIKE militarism Permalink 2020-06-23 00:27:13+00:00

@nntaleb Nothing yet. Permalink 2020-06-23 00:26:40+00:00

@nntaleb I never defended HCQ; my point was that the studies “debunking” were flawed and IN THE ABSENCE of further information, take what has the track recort of toxicity. Permalink 2020-06-23 00:25:54+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ So I am hated by Libertarians over masks/Silver Rule, Socialists for fractal Liberty, Democrats (US) for interventionism/paternalism, Republicans (US) for militarism, Both for corporatism, eugenists for IQ debunking, Arabist fascists for Mediterranean localism, by Statists… Permalink 2020-06-23 00:21:03+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-06-22 23:08:07+00:00

@nntaleb Hahahahahaha Permalink 2020-06-22 23:06:44+00:00

@nntaleb This is tooooooootal nonsense. It is dishonest to play race with such matters, and even more dishonest to lie about it. Caucasian (“white”) ≠ “European” as per EU membership. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-jesus-was-not-a-nonwhite-refugee-who-would-have-voted-for-43779209eea4 Permalink 2020-06-22 21:19:23+00:00

@nntaleb (BTW my experience is that Keto strips measure principally hydration, which causes a lot of noise. Useless.) Permalink 2020-06-22 20:23:55+00:00

@nntaleb It’s a yuuuuuuuuge war! Brought Zoroastrianism/Nestorianism to the Levant, later Maronitism/Shiism indirectly. Khosroe-van = Kesserwan in Lebanon Permalink 2020-06-22 19:34:19+00:00

@nntaleb Keto sticks measure water more than Keto! Permalink 2020-06-22 19:31:36+00:00

@nntaleb I took shortcuts. Permalink 2020-06-22 19:24:49+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, a Keto Question Humans keep ar. 2500 cal in “carbs” stored in muscles & liver. So does one enter ketosis by fasting 24h (assuming 2500 cal/day expenditure)? If so, shouldn’t one remain subsequently in ketosis regardless of food composition if <2500 consumed afterwards? Permalink 2020-06-22 19:23:58+00:00

@nntaleb No Sci Fi, never liked it. Except for HG Wells, of course. Permalink 2020-06-22 17:27:24+00:00

@nntaleb Separate floor Permalink 2020-06-22 17:20:54+00:00

@nntaleb After nearly 4 months, the emotion of being reunited with my (nontechnical) library. Permalink 2020-06-22 17:11:50+00:00

@nntaleb Which is why we need precise terms for that crap. Permalink 2020-06-22 16:58:38+00:00

@nntaleb The worst is: what to do when it comes from “white” people? Chromoclassification is a problem. Permalink 2020-06-22 16:50:46+00:00

@nntaleb It’s a HE; he changed his picture. Permalink 2020-06-22 14:17:30+00:00

@nntaleb I mean here is the technical Permalink 2020-06-22 12:52:32+00:00

@nntaleb And of course this came AFTER I debunked the sinister programs. 1) BS with IQ metrics https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 2) Less technical commentary Permalink 2020-06-22 12:51:53+00:00

@nntaleb It is not the defense of free expression but the COVER of free expression that I am pointing out. Permalink 2020-06-22 12:36:58+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed. Arabs were themselves trying to NOT be Persianized. Baghdad was Persian speaking and Arabs brought more Arabic speakers, ironically the Mizrahi Jews, who were up to 50% of the population of Baghdad. Permalink 2020-06-22 12:15:18+00:00

@nntaleb MLK’s program was civil rights (which he NEVER hid) and of course requiring free speech. Others claim their program free speech but in fact theirs is a sinister Eugenics agenda. Permalink 2020-06-22 12:03:15+00:00

@nntaleb How about when you walk? Permalink 2020-06-22 02:04:45+00:00

@nntaleb Who she? Permalink 2020-06-21 21:14:17+00:00

@nntaleb Xenophobia, discrimination, etc. Permalink 2020-06-21 18:34:06+00:00

@nntaleb Not necessarily. You can hate a group precisely because you think they are successful –antisemitism Permalink 2020-06-21 18:08:16+00:00

@nntaleb In other words: “I don’t want your group around” is xenophobia. “Your group has inferior mental abilities” is something else. Permalink 2020-06-21 18:01:54+00:00

@nntaleb I separate the 2 in Principia Politica. Permalink 2020-06-21 17:56:06+00:00

@nntaleb One is xenophobia, one is the degradation in the human hierarchy. Not same. Permalink 2020-06-21 17:54:55+00:00

@nntaleb It is never really racism against the “prestige” group. But I agree some groups are losing the prestige status. Permalink 2020-06-21 17:43:01+00:00

@nntaleb How long you’ve used it? Permalink 2020-06-21 17:31:04+00:00

@nntaleb Another route from @SrinivasR1729’s : You can use the generating function of the inverse binomial coefficients and prove == Pi. Permalink 2020-06-21 17:21:51+00:00

@nntaleb It’s a HE. He just changed picture. Permalink 2020-06-21 14:36:23+00:00

@nntaleb As a matter of fact central states discouraged the use of masks for the first 3 months Permalink 2020-06-21 14:21:58+00:00

@nntaleb This imbecile doesn’t event get what “white means” and who’s in and out of it. Permalink 2020-06-21 14:12:19+00:00

@nntaleb Mazola is poison. Total poison. I spent 4 months without eating in restaurants. Only butter and olive oil. Never felt stronger (max lifts), lost 12 lbs. Permalink 2020-06-21 13:47:44+00:00

@nntaleb 1) I explain in #SkinintheGame scale transformations: Bitcoin is a good idea but almost all bitcoiners are total idiots, can’t get nuances beyond fortune cookies. 2) My idea is (fractal) State is needed ONLY for systemic tail risks, not messing w/daily life. Same as medicines. Permalink 2020-06-21 13:16:29+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is not chauvinism: just to let you know that the “prestige” for Northern European is a recent phenomenon & that they have NOTHING to do with Greco-Roman civilization from which they claim descent. They have no claims to supremacy, so chill out and respect others. Permalink 2020-06-21 12:45:54+00:00

@nntaleb A lot of Nilotic civilizations plus Aethiopia. Permalink 2020-06-21 12:42:55+00:00

@nntaleb GS correlates does not determine scholarship. Peterson is a quack. Permalink 2020-06-21 12:25:39+00:00

@nntaleb Makes it worse: statism Permalink 2020-06-21 11:56:23+00:00

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it Permalink 2020-06-21 11:36:14+00:00

@nntaleb Charles Murray their lord is not a scholar. Not one of them is a scholar. Permalink 2020-06-21 11:30:14+00:00

@nntaleb Not one here is a scholar. Permalink 2020-06-21 11:29:16+00:00

@nntaleb The IQ story: not most, but ALL of these “researchers” and “statisticians” are statistically ignorant. These psychologists don’t even know what metrics s.a. correlation mean. Science is science. Permalink 2020-06-21 11:21:40+00:00

@nntaleb In 1900 the Aleppo region was richer than most places today in the EU. It was the wealthiest area of the Roman Empire (providing 4-5 emperors, 5 popes, etc.) All it took is the Baath centralized state to destroy it. They still don’t get it. Discussion in #Antifragile Permalink 2020-06-21 11:16:07+00:00

@nntaleb Almost ALL those who claim to be fighting for “free speech” are fighting to promote sinister racial ideas. That’s the case w/ IQ-race “research”, race “realism”, Quillette/ @charlesmurray/@clairlemon KKK’s David Duke has a “Free Speech Press” w/books on “Jewish Supremacism”. Permalink 2020-06-21 11:10:31+00:00

@nntaleb The problem is the alternative brings Cass Sunstein types back to the white house. Permalink 2020-06-21 01:27:46+00:00

@nntaleb It is one thing to have young leaderless protesters spreading viruses locally. But here the chief executive of the US is organizing the mother of all REDISTRIBUTION of germs across the country… And then they complain about the “economic costs” of “fighting” the pandemic. Permalink 2020-06-21 01:14:46+00:00

@nntaleb (That’s what people used to tell his parents. Some things don’t cross generations.) Permalink 2020-06-21 00:54:57+00:00

@nntaleb You still get comments like these. Do they think I will turn the other cheek? Permalink 2020-06-21 00:32:38+00:00

@nntaleb This is commonly known as a “superspreader event”. (Although perhaps 2-10% of people have masks) Permalink 2020-06-21 00:14:15+00:00

@nntaleb Destroyed by centralization Permalink 2020-06-20 23:40:00+00:00

@nntaleb Yes mostly from one obervation on the right. Permalink 2020-06-20 19:59:57+00:00

@nntaleb Code Permalink 2020-06-20 19:40:46+00:00

@nntaleb It is the histogram Permalink 2020-06-20 19:39:26+00:00

@nntaleb “If?” Permalink 2020-06-20 19:35:07+00:00

@nntaleb How UNCERTAINTY about the exponential growth rate translates into higher expected fatalities. Permalink 2020-06-20 19:30:08+00:00

@nntaleb Never trust someone who puts ethical in their titles. Permalink 2020-06-20 18:45:09+00:00

@nntaleb Never Lebanon. I met Zilkha who said: I was dispossessed in Egypt, Iraq, and Syria. Never Leb. Permalink 2020-06-20 17:23:02+00:00

@nntaleb Kll l bil 3arabé. Kamm wa7ad? Permalink 2020-06-20 17:00:22+00:00

@nntaleb COME PREVISTO In our papers, @DrCirillo and I have made sure our results are resistant to lies. We actually treated all historians as liars via bootstraps –yet no change for the tail exponents for wars and pandemics. Permalink 2020-06-20 16:57:49+00:00

@nntaleb Wassil 3 a NY Permalink 2020-06-20 16:50:02+00:00

@nntaleb Guess which one is an academic? Permalink 2020-06-20 16:41:59+00:00

@nntaleb Phi (Golden ratio). The proof is via tricks Permalink 2020-06-20 16:27:44+00:00

@nntaleb I had that idiot on mute. Berenson has the logical clarity of an oil spill. Permalink 2020-06-20 13:52:27+00:00

@nntaleb M, I have an idea for you. Permalink 2020-06-20 13:37:35+00:00

@nntaleb Meshia7o Permalink 2020-06-20 13:24:21+00:00

@nntaleb Wait 5 years. Permalink 2020-06-20 13:22:35+00:00

@nntaleb Be patient Pietro Permalink 2020-06-20 12:45:25+00:00

@nntaleb Being the judge. Permalink 2020-06-20 12:44:34+00:00

@nntaleb You must have the discipline to seek revenge and deliver punishment when you don’t really feel like it anymore; and do it purely out of a sense of duty, acting as a sentencing judge rather than a plaintif. Permalink 2020-06-20 02:23:44+00:00

@nntaleb Ahla bil tayfé ya Theodosius Permalink 2020-06-20 02:16:49+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Permalink 2020-06-20 01:06:38+00:00

@nntaleb 4/n This is similar to aversion to plane crashes. A tiny risk of crash, orders of magnitude smaller than death from COVID, causes enough people to avoid flying in the 737 max to make it unprofitable. Governments follow. Permalink 2020-06-20 00:56:11+00:00

@nntaleb 3/n Pea-brained pseudo-libertarians (PBPL) attribute the loss of economic activity to the “lockdown” brought by “government”, not to the virus Few who are neither brain-dead nor PBPL wd voluntarily go expose themselves to viruses. Risk aversion is responsible for economic effects Permalink 2020-06-20 00:38:12+00:00

@nntaleb 2/n I am not saying 1) here is the authority of Hayek, or 2) Hayek was a “true” libertarian. I am just fed up with sociopaths with reduced brain functions citing Hayek to justify their crackpot theories about the pandemic. Period. Permalink 2020-06-20 00:32:03+00:00

@nntaleb HAYEK vs PSEUDOLIBERTARIANS For those invoking “libertarianism” in front of natural calamities, some news for you: Hayek explicitly gives a role to the “state”: protection against violence, epidemics, and natural disasters. Namely; TAIL RISKS. He understood uncertainty/tails. Permalink 2020-06-20 00:03:22+00:00

@nntaleb How? Permalink 2020-06-19 23:34:19+00:00

@nntaleb Isn’t that Monte Carlo with smart sampling? Permalink 2020-06-19 22:37:16+00:00

@nntaleb بأيا لغا؟ بلشامي؟ Permalink 2020-06-19 21:44:30+00:00

@nntaleb How about this? https://www.amazon.com/CARE-Natural-Sponge-Cloths-Count/dp/B0078DQXQC/ref=sr_1_12?dchild=1&keywords=sponges+extra+thin&qid=1592602856&sr=8-12 Permalink 2020-06-19 21:42:30+00:00

@nntaleb I do 3-5x, but @GrantSSC has a theory that 10x deadlift once in a while helps break out of plateaus. Permalink 2020-06-19 20:27:14+00:00

@nntaleb What’s the official SS dogma on gloves, @GrantSSC ? Permalink 2020-06-19 19:57:59+00:00

@nntaleb Weightlifting questions. Friends, how do you deal with hand calluses for high reps? The pain starts after 8 reps regardless of weight. + Chalk: no effect for high reps, helpful at low reps/high load. + Straps: using them= cheating as they prevent the wrist from getting stronger. Permalink 2020-06-19 19:47:00+00:00

@nntaleb No Permalink 2020-06-19 19:37:04+00:00

@nntaleb In Aramaic! Permalink 2020-06-19 19:29:31+00:00

@nntaleb E nato ad Alessandria Permalink 2020-06-19 18:54:33+00:00

@nntaleb I did not make a big deal to protect him. But now things are different. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:51:43+00:00

@nntaleb Come Umberto E. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:48:09+00:00

@nntaleb Institutions evolve to be taken over by rent-seekers. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:40:12+00:00

@nntaleb Not “leftist”. Soviet. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:38:06+00:00

@nntaleb So “sectarianism” means nonBaathist. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:29:44+00:00

@nntaleb Antifragile = bottom up sectarianism that clashes with the centralized Baath program. It targets directly the Baath centralization in a chapter. The person in question is some type of Baathist-fascist, etc. Yet in charge of the philosophy dept. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:28:43+00:00

@nntaleb By https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=2HaZQbAAAAAJ&hl=en Permalink 2020-06-19 18:20:02+00:00

@nntaleb AUB is the ONLY place on the planet, in 41 languages, where my work has been banned. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:14:41+00:00

@nntaleb An incident of the sort at NYU would cause a complete riot. The fact that they exploit labor AND deprive them of freedom is a serious problem. Permalink 2020-06-19 17:44:11+00:00

@nntaleb Wael, listen to Ma7mud, if you like AUB. They banned my book in the philosophy department –yes, banned. Tells you something about the culture of the institution. We will know more later; but first let help it survive. Permalink 2020-06-19 17:38:25+00:00

@nntaleb In CH they pay taxes mostly locally. Here we send the bulk to DC. Permalink 2020-06-19 17:17:44+00:00

@nntaleb These FUNDS are Federal from taxes they paid. Permalink 2020-06-19 16:42:32+00:00

@nntaleb Coercion of the smaller units & forcing them to conform to the central command is a Soviet thing. Counties, towns, individuals should be free to set their own rules. Permalink 2020-06-19 16:28:58+00:00

@nntaleb For a long time, until the early 20th C, Byzantines took the attitude “neither East nor West” or “both East or West”, or, even better “East and West are a construction outside our interests”. Permalink 2020-06-19 13:27:35+00:00

@nntaleb I read the passage when he was *riding* high (literally). Permalink 2020-06-19 13:04:41+00:00

@nntaleb The Byzantines were considered part of the East (in France, “les orientaux”). Same with Gibbon who was allergic to “Asian” mores and love of luxury . Example: Bertrand Russell’s History of Western Philosophy: Permalink 2020-06-19 12:31:28+00:00

@nntaleb The Roman army rule: action removes fear. Permalink 2020-06-19 12:13:13+00:00

@nntaleb Maria Mavroudi’s lecture For those not familiar w/her work: Byzantium got bad press during the enlightenment because 1)Christian, 2)Autocracy, 3)For Western Bleached Barbarian (WBB, my term) supremacism, “Rome”=German Holy R Empire Intellectual contributions dismissed by the WBB Permalink 2020-06-19 12:08:02+00:00

@nntaleb There are “Libertarians” (sociopaths looking for cover) and true Libertarians. Permalink 2020-06-19 11:18:11+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile, breathing multiplicative germs are not aggression? Permalink 2020-06-19 01:24:47+00:00

@nntaleb Better with the syrup. Permalink 2020-06-19 01:17:30+00:00

@nntaleb MASKS Libertarians are behaving like abused stepchildren with premature insomnia, bad school reports,& the moral clarity of house termites. It’s not because SOME states are requiring masks that they MUST be bad. States also ban murder. Should homicide be an assertion of freedom? Permalink 2020-06-19 01:16:08+00:00

@nntaleb They also banned murder. Imbecile! Permalink 2020-06-19 00:09:17+00:00

@nntaleb You have the understanding of a parrot overdosing on bad vodka. Get off Twitter. Nobody mentioned any government. This is called ethics. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-06-19 00:06:42+00:00

@nntaleb A7ikar preceded Aesop with his fables. Permalink 2020-06-18 23:22:51+00:00

@nntaleb A few years behind my tweet! Got to find it! Permalink 2020-06-18 23:18:00+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry. Permalink 2020-06-18 22:30:04+00:00

@nntaleb Remember that by NOT wearing a mask you will contribute to someone else’s death AND will hurt the economy. Permalink 2020-06-18 22:05:28+00:00

@nntaleb Not quite; localism has worked best under some Imperial supervision (Roman empire, Hapsburgs, etc.) Permalink 2020-06-18 20:54:19+00:00

@nntaleb Is this in favor or against some adult supervision, say from the IMF (or something similar)? Permalink 2020-06-18 18:16:08+00:00

@nntaleb Koura? Permalink 2020-06-18 16:50:06+00:00

@nntaleb A sad feature of these campus events is that academics like @robinhanson, @hsu_steve or others, with the intellectual solidity of a bag of marshmallow marinated for weeks in Lebanese grape vinegar, are now free-speech victims rather than just nonsolid authors. Permalink 2020-06-18 16:44:31+00:00

@nntaleb 2) NOT SAYING the world has Fat Tails. That, we have known for a while. Saying TOOLS of analysis & THEORIES are INCOMPATIBLE w/Fat Tails. They become totally uninformative. Example: Building a portfolio on “correlation” and “St deviation” or making inf “regression” is BS. Permalink 2020-06-18 16:24:25+00:00

@nntaleb No I am saying the TOOLS of analysis are uninformative. Permalink 2020-06-18 16:21:03+00:00

@nntaleb The less polite abstract of my talk next Thursday: It is not 99% of modern finance that is practically, mathematically, & scientifically BS. It is 100%. The ENTIRE foundations are made for thin tails. From my next book. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-06-18 16:10:54+00:00

@nntaleb Bingo, not from Syriac Permalink 2020-06-18 13:08:42+00:00

@nntaleb The exception that confirm the rule: monopolistic situations and market shortages. Permalink 2020-06-18 12:52:15+00:00

@nntaleb Hard to understand why people are so blind to the difference between necessary and sufficient. Permalink 2020-06-18 12:43:22+00:00

@nntaleb To be free, you must be the customer. Permalink 2020-06-18 12:25:20+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t get the paper, nor the NAP. Permalink 2020-06-18 11:29:24+00:00

@nntaleb Must be kelime, no? Permalink 2020-06-17 22:23:08+00:00

@nntaleb Unlikely Permalink 2020-06-17 20:48:37+00:00

@nntaleb Very, very unlikely. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:41:03+00:00

@nntaleb That’s babylonian @EdmondShami Permalink 2020-06-17 20:27:40+00:00

@nntaleb OK OK Found the root for kalam كلام To teach, lecture. Stange coincidence with pen Permalink 2020-06-17 20:26:43+00:00

@nntaleb It is pronounced “yuuuge” but written “huuuge”. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:19:26+00:00

@nntaleb كلام قلم 2 different roots. one is “word” the other is kalamos. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:18:54+00:00

@nntaleb Not for kalaam. it is a kaf ك not ق Permalink 2020-06-17 20:09:45+00:00

@nntaleb Made same mistake. قلم comes from kalamos. Kalaam (with a k) not sure.Will look. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:07:35+00:00

@nntaleb Strangly, daftar (notebook) comes from deftero in Greek. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:06:05+00:00

@nntaleb Great book Permalink 2020-06-17 17:15:05+00:00

@nntaleb “Predictions are self-fulling or self canceling” You can’t judge forecasts that lead to action because of the forecast (say caution). Can’t believe these IYS not seeing it. Permalink 2020-06-17 17:03:28+00:00

@nntaleb UBERSTATISTICIAN ANDREW GELMAN: (Some) forecasting for COVID-19 has failed: a discussion of Taleb and Ioannidis et al. « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/06/17/some-forecasting-for-covid-19-has-failed-a-discussion-of-taleb-and-ioannidis-et-al/#.Xuo_8FKD5KA.twitter Permalink 2020-06-17 16:08:51+00:00

@nntaleb C’e un’espressione italiana vicino al l’antico proverbio greco: “Consiglio di vecchio e aiuto di giovane” Permalink 2020-06-17 14:11:38+00:00

@nntaleb How? Permalink 2020-06-17 14:02:01+00:00

@nntaleb No need for theorem. Absence of mean is absence of mean. Permalink 2020-06-17 14:00:54+00:00

@nntaleb Modern Greek (attempt) Δύναμη από νέους Συμβουλές από ηλικιωμένους Permalink 2020-06-17 13:45:11+00:00

@nntaleb Strength from the young Advice from the old Permalink 2020-06-17 13:44:22+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-17 13:26:15+00:00

@nntaleb Νεοις μεν εργα, βουλας δε γεραιτεροις [Corpus paroemiographorum graecorum] Permalink 2020-06-17 13:21:02+00:00

@nntaleb ΝΕΟΙΣ ΜΕΝ ΕΡΓΑ , ΒΟΥΛΑΣ ΔΕ ΓΕΡΑΙΤΕΡΟΙΣ Permalink 2020-06-17 13:19:44+00:00

@nntaleb No branch of traditional conservatism includes creeps like @AnnCoulter. Must be a new reverse-Burkean one. Permalink 2020-06-17 12:07:29+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, it requires a huuuge amount of heroism, physical courage, moral compass, gratitude, Christian values, and not least, classical virtues, to betray intergenerational commitments, sacrifice the weakest, and commit geronticide [that is, the genocide of the elderly]. Permalink 2020-06-17 11:04:59+00:00

@nntaleb Greatest historical irony. Permalink 2020-06-17 02:05:37+00:00

@nntaleb Dear Raj, I am sorry for your loss. Permalink 2020-06-17 00:18:22+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-17 00:12:06+00:00

@nntaleb To be a person of virtue you need to be boringly virtuous in every single small action. To be a person of honor all you need is to be honorable in a few important things. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink 2020-06-16 22:19:47+00:00

@nntaleb I used wisdom for nature. Permalink 2020-06-16 22:02:37+00:00

@nntaleb Another lesson: opportunity cost requires a handle on the first moment. How can someone be so clueless, Mr PhD? Permalink 2020-06-16 21:22:30+00:00

@nntaleb How does selection bias and EVT connect to opportunity cost? Permalink 2020-06-16 21:19:41+00:00

@nntaleb Ortmann Permalink 2020-06-16 20:26:49+00:00

@nntaleb Orgman, Phd, explain to us how to do extreme value analysis without extreme values. Permalink 2020-06-16 20:24:06+00:00

@nntaleb I used “Nature” Permalink 2020-06-16 20:14:36+00:00

@nntaleb #Lindy Permalink 2020-06-16 20:08:40+00:00

@nntaleb You can’t teach pigs to fly, Bert. Permalink 2020-06-16 19:57:13+00:00

@nntaleb It is not Ioannides but this economist did not catch it. Permalink 2020-06-16 19:25:53+00:00

@nntaleb One needs to be really, really, really ignorant about statistics (plus an economist) to buy that the entire set of tail events is “selection bias” (this is the standard EVT approach and REMOVING would be selection bias) @DrCirillo Permalink 2020-06-16 19:16:41+00:00

@nntaleb Odds it came from a jar. No squid with it? Permalink 2020-06-16 18:49:05+00:00

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-06-16 18:31:23+00:00

@nntaleb I was in Palermo EXACTLY a year ago. Naples is more intense. Permalink 2020-06-16 17:30:23+00:00

@nntaleb Palermo is too Phoenician. Taormina is the Greek side. Permalink 2020-06-16 17:22:36+00:00

@nntaleb We only hear about “imperfect” crimes. “Perfect crimes” will never be discovered –by definition. Permalink 2020-06-16 17:18:22+00:00

@nntaleb Bingo! Permalink 2020-06-16 16:14:11+00:00

@nntaleb I DO address his points, Nir. Permalink 2020-06-16 16:05:26+00:00

@nntaleb DEBATE W IOANNIDIS Some asked to discuss @PTetlock’s forecasting. I answered Ioannidis because I think he is wrong. Unlike Ioannidis, Phil the rat🐁 Tetlock is *not even* wrong. He is a despicable BS Vendor who misrepresents the “collaboration” w/me. Permalink 2020-06-16 15:40:01+00:00

@nntaleb No, Oliver. You don’t block people for not understanding something. We all make mistakes all the time. You block people for intellectual dishonesty, which is very, very, very different. cc:@bmiloy Permalink 2020-06-16 15:28:57+00:00

@nntaleb I am careful about propaganda. Both sides in the conflict BS you. Permalink 2020-06-16 14:56:58+00:00

@nntaleb That’s a local authority. Very different. And compatible with subsidiarity. Permalink 2020-06-16 14:55:45+00:00

@nntaleb You do not seem to realize what’s going on. There is no “movement” but there is an organization, #RWRI whch is nothing bt continuous fights betw. instructors openly disagreeing (2 of whom mut blocked on Twitter), not counting when @Jaffer22915438 comes in to harass us. Permalink 2020-06-16 14:13:57+00:00

@nntaleb If via negative were universal it would be via positiva, no? Permalink 2020-06-16 13:48:16+00:00

@nntaleb What’s wrong with an autonomous zone? Permalink 2020-06-16 13:40:04+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t get it. Both taking OR rejecting lumps from a “movement” are unrigorous. My only request is to avoid falling in the exact opposite trap, namely the genetic fallacy that if it is associated with X then it MUST be wrong. Some things are wrong with Complexity. Permalink 2020-06-16 13:33:17+00:00

@nntaleb The only award is time. The very notion of award goes against the collective iterative process called science. Permalink 2020-06-16 13:15:03+00:00

@nntaleb 3a 2bel l alf Permalink 2020-06-16 13:10:34+00:00

@nntaleb So @hvairinhos unless you answer the above questions in a rational and responsible way, sorry but you will be blocked. Permalink 2020-06-16 12:54:21+00:00

@nntaleb PS- I blocked your friend Benoux NOT for disagreeing but for DISTORTING what I and some other people were saying. (For instance nobody is against “specialists”, only untested macroBS citation rings with aggregate variables that are fat tailed.) Never tolerate dishonesty. Permalink 2020-06-16 12:43:59+00:00

@nntaleb And you think it is the government that is the cause of that or people’s reactions? Permalink 2020-06-16 12:35:39+00:00

@nntaleb Yes. Permalink 2020-06-16 12:13:26+00:00

@nntaleb Finally, the ideas in the Incerto are about handling uncertainty at the individual and systemic level. They are not about LOCALISM but incl a footnote on how things behave differently at different SCALES. Realize the Prec. Principle is PRECISELY for when localism fails. Permalink 2020-06-16 12:04:39+00:00

@nntaleb 1- Population was much much smaller than today (still small) 2- Gov was small, represented at the time <10% of GDP Permalink 2020-06-16 11:57:28+00:00

@nntaleb The homunculus theory prevailed for a long time by people who wanted human to have a centralized brain. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:43:52+00:00

@nntaleb The other problem is that WE humans are fragile by design and rely on reproduction/evolution for guidance under uncertainty. WE individuals are not a society. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:24:59+00:00

@nntaleb Yes that’s my point: subsidiarity. Bottom up does not mean everything is at the bottom. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:22:52+00:00

@nntaleb Saying “a lot of things are centralized” means there is no single command/control center. The point is that there is no central genetic code interpretation. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:22:02+00:00

@nntaleb An ant colony is a case in point: there is NO command and control function. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:16:51+00:00

@nntaleb + Nothing in your body is centralized. + Localism means subsidiarity NOT breaking apart everything into small pieces. Please answer if you disagree. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:16:00+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-06-16 11:14:14+00:00

@nntaleb Do you agree with the following? + Centralization DOES produce fat tails. + Circuit breakers DO stabilize systems. + Nothing in natural systems is centralized. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:12:24+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, someone communicating with HIS investors is not MARKETING. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:01:09+00:00

@nntaleb The idiot thinks that it is the funds not the journalists that write the headlines, a theory promoted by the uber-charlatan Lopez de Prado. Permalink 2020-06-16 10:57:30+00:00

@nntaleb No, it is only moral anachronism if it did THEN conflict with the moral of its day. Permalink 2020-06-16 10:47:37+00:00

@nntaleb This is unrigorous, nonsense Permalink 2020-06-16 02:32:04+00:00

@nntaleb Fed up w/lumping of beliefs: If you hate deficits, you must hate masks If you like bitcoin, COVID’s fatality rate must be low If you hate taxes, HQC has potential but geronticide is OK If IQ testing is a fraud, then moral anachronism/removing statues I am fed up w all of you. Permalink 2020-06-16 02:28:03+00:00

@nntaleb I had frothy coffee Permalink 2020-06-16 01:23:02+00:00

@nntaleb Ma preference etait pour l’immortalité. Mais bon… Permalink 2020-06-15 21:45:46+00:00

@nntaleb 3attari2 Permalink 2020-06-15 21:41:35+00:00

@nntaleb It took 5 weeks to get here from France… The complete works (The Czech was translated by Kundera). Now the question: where to start. Most of Kundera’s books are hypnotic. This is literature. Permalink 2020-06-15 21:40:42+00:00

@nntaleb No, bullshitter. And you claim to be an academic? Permalink 2020-06-15 18:31:09+00:00

@nntaleb Isn’t this called socialism? Permalink 2020-06-15 18:04:47+00:00

@nntaleb They were tests. Permalink 2020-06-15 16:33:43+00:00

@nntaleb “Show me the man and I will find you the crime”. When you have potential enemies, AND you are not free (like Carlos Ghosn), be paranoid. Permalink 2020-06-15 14:52:26+00:00

@nntaleb Tarjamé 3al tari2 Permalink 2020-06-15 14:41:50+00:00

@nntaleb The other problem people don’t get is that acting EARLY saves $$$and the economy. We proved it Jan 26. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:56:25+00:00

@nntaleb You seem to believe that the disease does not carry economic costs. This is a false dichotomy. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:32:49+00:00

@nntaleb People who apologize publicly are not sorry for having done something wrong. They are mostly sorry for having being caught. Never apologize publicly. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:26:04+00:00

@nntaleb This is not a good analogy. Sweden had not much difference in economic costs from Norway, with 11 times deaths per capita. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:15:32+00:00

@nntaleb A remarkable elegance of reasoning and expression, particularly in his summary: “La ta7dif bi ma la ta3rif” Basically, don’t be fooled by randomness. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:05:02+00:00

@nntaleb You are conflating costs of the pandemic AND costs of dealing with the pandemic. It is the pandemic that has economics costs! Permalink 2020-06-15 12:49:38+00:00

@nntaleb This is even more interesting: he who finds a coincidence: “kalam bghayr 3ilm” Permalink 2020-06-15 12:43:48+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Interesting :القَبَس: الشُّعْلة من النار. => derive strength from. Permalink 2020-06-15 12:34:39+00:00

@nntaleb How can someone be as clueless as you yet operate as postdoc? Do they have some type of reading comprehension tests? Permalink 2020-06-15 12:19:59+00:00

@nntaleb And would you translate the Hadith: “saving one’s people from astrology is saving them from sorcery”? Permalink 2020-06-15 12:18:16+00:00

@nntaleb Kazzibu is “distrust” or trear like a liar, no? Permalink 2020-06-15 12:11:21+00:00

@nntaleb Leggere e molto facile. Parlare e facile, ma non troppo. Scrivere bene (con precisione) e troppo difficile. Permalink 2020-06-15 11:54:20+00:00

@nntaleb Yes it is not Hadith (hence (~) above) but a potent aphorism that effectively translates the accepted Hadith (below it). “Predictions are false even when true” “Predictions are either coincidental or false” كذب المنجمون ولو صدقوا كذب المنجمون ولو صدفوا Permalink 2020-06-15 11:46:21+00:00

@nntaleb I blocked this incoherent sub-imbecile SignorErnesto. It is like talking to a drunk parrot. Permalink 2020-06-15 11:35:55+00:00

@nntaleb Imparare dai migliori Permalink 2020-06-15 11:01:53+00:00

@nntaleb Mai troppo! Permalink 2020-06-15 10:59:19+00:00

@nntaleb la prima tazza del giorno. Permalink 2020-06-15 10:48:11+00:00

@nntaleb He summarizes the discussion Permalink 2020-06-15 10:26:17+00:00

@nntaleb Exactly. It’s a citation ring. Permalink 2020-06-15 01:31:40+00:00

@nntaleb Blocked him Sweden had yuuuge self-quarantines yet has 11 times the death rate of Norway. Nothing to do with tails. Permalink 2020-06-15 01:31:10+00:00

@nntaleb I was diplomatic! Permalink 2020-06-15 01:19:27+00:00

@nntaleb A more usual form would be: أريد أن أراه بعيني Permalink 2020-06-15 00:28:08+00:00

@nntaleb The “evidence based” idiots are locked in a permanent state, i.e. remain “evidence based” idiots no matter what events bring, or what reasoning is supplied to them. Working with @yaneerbaryam on the “evidence based” BS. cc:@BallouxFrancois Permalink 2020-06-15 00:19:53+00:00

@nntaleb Smells of Google Translate. You should make some mistakes, cher ami. Permalink 2020-06-15 00:07:25+00:00

@nntaleb Arabic 2 different meanings مسخره مسحره One means a joke, the other means related to magic. Permalink 2020-06-14 23:40:52+00:00

@nntaleb William, time to block the idiot. I had him on mute. Permalink 2020-06-14 23:24:08+00:00

@nntaleb NonGabish Did you need astrological clearance from the Sanhedrin for the RSHOT? Permalink 2020-06-14 21:49:39+00:00

@nntaleb Actually, it has been attributed to many many people including the infamous Fouché. Permalink 2020-06-14 21:06:09+00:00

@nntaleb It is universally accepted that the Hadith is: من اقتبس شعبة من النجوم فقد اقتبس شعبة من السحر زاد ما زاد which conveys the same meaning. Permalink 2020-06-14 20:47:17+00:00

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-06-14 20:33:17+00:00

@nntaleb The Bible Code redux Permalink 2020-06-14 20:29:27+00:00

@nntaleb Yes it is contested hence the (~). But the hadith version below is the correct one. Permalink 2020-06-14 20:19:26+00:00

@nntaleb THEOLOGICAL QUESTION Looking for TALMUDIC version: Waged a war on forecasting (vs building things error proof/convex, not #Fragile) There is a (~) Hadith كذب المنجمون ولو صدقوا* (distrust astrologers even when correct) *من اقتبس شعبة من النجوم فقد اقتبس شعبة من السحر زاد ما زاد Permalink 2020-06-14 20:12:54+00:00

@nntaleb For those who don’t get why I used “Masquerade”: it comes from “mask”. Permalink 2020-06-14 19:59:50+00:00

@nntaleb Si, erre moscia. Permalink 2020-06-14 19:25:15+00:00

@nntaleb On single point forecasts for fat tailed variables [Debate with Ioannidis] Permalink 2020-06-14 19:23:07+00:00

@nntaleb Yes in Milan they have the “ladgha” Permalink 2020-06-14 19:22:34+00:00

@nntaleb The accent is iiiiiiiiiiiitalian as hell. Permalink 2020-06-14 17:55:58+00:00

@nntaleb Yes but sloooooooooooooow convergence Permalink 2020-06-14 17:52:54+00:00

@nntaleb Will contact you once I get there and I get my shipment. Permalink 2020-06-14 17:51:31+00:00

@nntaleb “Impossible n’est pas francais” (translation: impossible is not a word) Permalink 2020-06-14 17:09:22+00:00

@nntaleb Greek included Rum like me from the Millet classification. Many were Rums. Permalink 2020-06-14 17:08:28+00:00

@nntaleb I will be in NY next week. Come get your copy. Where are you? Permalink 2020-06-14 17:07:03+00:00

@nntaleb Toi aussi tu parles francais? Permalink 2020-06-14 17:04:27+00:00

@nntaleb Donc pas d’ancetres Mendes? Permalink 2020-06-14 16:59:35+00:00

@nntaleb Yes I went to my textbook and was relieved to see I was careful to define convexity and what I used here as “convexity argument” i.e. benefits from dispersion. Some people call that “Jensen gap”. Permalink 2020-06-14 16:50:14+00:00

@nntaleb Tu parles francais, Ugo? Permalink 2020-06-14 16:45:01+00:00

@nntaleb Just hit my own record too. Caffe pomeridiano, con un bicchiere di aqua fredda e un po di cioccolato nero amaro. Permalink 2020-06-14 16:41:06+00:00

@nntaleb The debate with Ioannidis has just started. Permalink 2020-06-14 16:22:15+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile you didn’t get it. Permalink 2020-06-14 15:03:18+00:00

@nntaleb Please do not be offended but I block people for idiotic comments. I am really sorry. Permalink 2020-06-14 14:01:05+00:00

@nntaleb Not as good as yesterday but still good! Trick: use the spoon to nudge the valve! Permalink 2020-06-14 13:55:53+00:00

@nntaleb You bet Permalink 2020-06-14 13:16:23+00:00

@nntaleb With oil prices under $45, people in the Levant start to self-identify as Eastern Mediterraneans. With oil prices below $22, they self-identifiy as Mediterraneans. Permalink 2020-06-14 12:44:07+00:00

@nntaleb I wear masks inside and visors outside in parks and ventilated areas. Permalink 2020-06-14 12:39:45+00:00

@nntaleb Actually it is even < than p^2 because the conditional p for the noninfected person is even lower. Permalink 2020-06-14 12:34:54+00:00

@nntaleb You’re an idiot. Drinking alcohol brings no systemic risk. Permalink 2020-06-14 12:31:21+00:00

@nntaleb I just published The Masks Masquerade Permalink 2020-06-14 12:18:27+00:00

@nntaleb Je ne comprend pas. Permalink 2020-06-14 10:19:51+00:00

@nntaleb It is late in Napoli! Permalink 2020-06-14 00:46:36+00:00

@nntaleb We can create a symposium on life expectancy that is memoriless where death are 100% due to accident/malfunctioning not senility. This seems to be close to the case with sharks/turtles. 400y or 120 y is not too different. Permalink 2020-06-14 00:12:01+00:00

@nntaleb Exists neither in the North nor in Beirut nor in Kesserwan. Nor on TV. Nor in Northern Syria. So must be in some area I have never visited. Permalink 2020-06-13 21:36:31+00:00

@nntaleb Never heard these. Permalink 2020-06-13 21:29:02+00:00

@nntaleb OK, replace for now with “gains from dispersion” or “gains from JE”, and see if that so-called “abuse of language” makes sense. Permalink 2020-06-13 21:28:18+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks. This is just starting. There is a bit to come. Permalink 2020-06-13 21:14:15+00:00

@nntaleb Again, fuzzy definitions. For some, regular variation class. For others anything subexponential. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:46:50+00:00

@nntaleb To discuss in Napoli. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:42:01+00:00

@nntaleb Finance; whatever benefits from jensen’s inequality. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:36:45+00:00

@nntaleb I see we are using different lingo. For me,”convex” is long dispersion. For you it is the shape of the function with respect to a parameter in an optimization thingy. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:29:33+00:00

@nntaleb Yes I am conditioning on the left side (minimum increment) =1. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:20:11+00:00

@nntaleb Variance is diff from mean, so minimal when equally spaced, no? Permalink 2020-06-13 19:58:16+00:00

@nntaleb Variance. Permalink 2020-06-13 19:44:37+00:00

@nntaleb Dear @mcs1870 is the convexity idea clear? Variance increases when you have dispersion, and minimal when equally spaced. When you think like option traders, you view everything in terms of convexity. Permalink 2020-06-13 19:36:40+00:00

@nntaleb Hormesis is a special case. A convex payoff is antifragile but not hormetic. Permalink 2020-06-13 19:28:38+00:00

@nntaleb Voila @joe_shipman Permalink 2020-06-13 18:54:50+00:00

@nntaleb How I explain it Permalink 2020-06-13 18:53:46+00:00

@nntaleb Ciao Carlo. Shipman @joe_shipman and @m_j_wiener solved it very simply showing that the minimum of the ratio lhs/rhs is reached for equal gaps. I will post when I come back, both simple and more complicated routes. Permalink 2020-06-13 18:26:22+00:00

@nntaleb Ho visto il film ieri. Molto divertente. Permalink 2020-06-13 17:15:14+00:00

@nntaleb (typo, was square). We can actually end up with tighter bounds. Permalink 2020-06-13 15:29:34+00:00

@nntaleb Oui! Permalink 2020-06-13 15:28:58+00:00

@nntaleb I agree. But you need to link/show the min is reached when separation is minimum on rhs, and max of min on lfs. Permalink 2020-06-13 15:16:03+00:00

@nntaleb Hint: we have the maximum of the minimum distance between points in relation to the variance. Other hint. Best route: use convexity of the right hand side. Permalink 2020-06-13 14:52:51+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-13 14:49:28+00:00

@nntaleb He is. Permalink 2020-06-13 14:10:26+00:00

@nntaleb Bingo. Permalink 2020-06-13 14:08:14+00:00

@nntaleb There is a chance this may be entertaining. [Note: I apologize but authors of non-math related comments will be blocked.] Permalink 2020-06-13 13:56:35+00:00

@nntaleb It’s a type I process (variations are from Mediocristan). To use it to justify direct genetic modification is clueless. Permalink 2020-06-13 13:43:31+00:00

@nntaleb Hence the Homsi joke: “Iza 7zeret kam fi 7abbé bi Idé b3tik yéhon tnaynaton”. Permalink 2020-06-13 12:51:28+00:00

@nntaleb Beiruti uses idein, never dayyet. Must be a mountain thing (common in Zahlé) Permalink 2020-06-13 12:49:08+00:00

@nntaleb OK, looking at things that are > dual: Byout, wled, 3arabiyyet, as7ab, etc. are always plural (byoutak, wledak…) regardless if n=2 or >2 Permalink 2020-06-13 12:45:12+00:00

@nntaleb 2) Wonder about Safaitic (@Safaitic) cc:@HsenAndil @PhDniX Permalink 2020-06-13 12:41:51+00:00

@nntaleb Plural (baydat) Permalink 2020-06-13 12:40:27+00:00

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY PUZZLE DUJOUR Hebrew, Phoenician, Akkadian,& Arabic have dual, not Aramaic-Syriac Hebr/Phncian focus on body parts (2 eyes, legs, etc.), dual atrophies elsewhere, but Lebanese has dual ONLY OUTSIDE body parts: Ideik, 3yunak, shféfék, ejreik are pl. Friends, any idea? Permalink 2020-06-13 12:32:13+00:00

@nntaleb These languages (like Akkadian and Heb) focus on body parts, and have tended to atrophy outside. Ironically we only use it outside body parts: 3yunik not 3ayntaynik, shféfék, not shftaynik, ejreik not ejrtaynak. Worth a PHILO PUZZLE du jour Permalink 2020-06-13 12:17:05+00:00

@nntaleb The Lebanese don’t often use dual: ideik, ejreik, etc. are plural not dual. “irfa3 yadaik => shil idék”. Permalink 2020-06-13 12:06:37+00:00

@nntaleb I would settle for squid ink Permalink 2020-06-13 12:02:25+00:00

@nntaleb Actually in Heb Egypt is Mitzraim, meaning “the two Misr”, because they have 2 kingdoms. Phoenician had dual. Permalink 2020-06-13 11:59:20+00:00

@nntaleb Today is a good day. Un buon auspicio. Permalink 2020-06-13 11:25:33+00:00

@nntaleb Because you are private I cannot retweet. Permalink 2020-06-13 11:05:45+00:00

@nntaleb 1 month with 2 days STD Permalink 2020-06-13 07:44:39+00:00

@nntaleb You are good. Very good. Permalink 2020-06-13 01:21:21+00:00

@nntaleb Hihi. Only 1 length. Ciao. Permalink 2020-06-13 01:17:39+00:00

@nntaleb Grazie! Permalink 2020-06-12 22:05:00+00:00

@nntaleb Yes I want to formalize! Permalink 2020-06-12 17:56:35+00:00

@nntaleb Masks change the ranking Permalink 2020-06-12 17:52:32+00:00

@nntaleb My first answer when a someone (particularly a journalist) tries to play rhetorical tricks/compound questions around a statistical/technical point they do not understand is: IGNORE. When they keep going, my second answer: Permalink 2020-06-12 17:27:58+00:00

@nntaleb #localism Permalink 2020-06-12 16:37:44+00:00

@nntaleb Facile: le plus elegant, digne, et bien dans sa peau. Permalink 2020-06-12 16:30:29+00:00

@nntaleb Je cherche mon arriere grand-pere. Permalink 2020-06-12 15:33:56+00:00

@nntaleb Superdeadlifts! Permalink 2020-06-12 15:08:33+00:00

@nntaleb straps? Permalink 2020-06-12 15:06:50+00:00

@nntaleb Hitchens, fuckoff. Permalink 2020-06-12 14:57:52+00:00

@nntaleb Chebychev’s inequality: for all r.v. with finite second moment: P(X> a)< V[x]/a^2 Permalink 2020-06-12 14:23:11+00:00

@nntaleb Relax: he’s not apparently a shill, just a troll I blocked. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:59:48+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-12 13:50:46+00:00

@nntaleb This fellow is getting it. My paper is unpublished and the exact result is absent from the literature. But social media is verifying my central result. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:49:21+00:00

@nntaleb This is a FIRST ROUND. Both Ioannidis and myself wrote blind comments. I will know what he wrote along with the rest of the world. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:38:44+00:00

@nntaleb You will find out. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:34:09+00:00

@nntaleb The scientific debate with John Ioannidis will be posted this weekend. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:32:12+00:00

@nntaleb 2) As a general rule: entropy based methods are much more adapted to information *by design*. Unlike with correlation & other BS, what you see with your naked eye will map to the metric! PS- Most geneticists use metrics they have NO clue about. Permalink 2020-06-12 12:33:32+00:00

@nntaleb PCA maps distort genetic distance betw populations: they separate Greeks from Turks (magnifying endogamy) & are exploited politically by rightwing nuts & EuroSupremacists Yet it’s IMPOSSIBLE to figure out Greek from W Turk w/the naked eye Our correction: shows them much closer Permalink 2020-06-12 12:27:37+00:00

@nntaleb Bureaucrats can’t get it in their head that masks & constraining superspreader locations are a much much cheaper, less disruptive, & more effective way to solve the problem. Permalink 2020-06-12 12:06:01+00:00

@nntaleb Bi Amioun, Feta mush 7allumé ma3 l battikh. Byez3alo l 3alam. Permalink 2020-06-12 12:01:56+00:00

@nntaleb Came FROM the book. FU money was not common before, only on Wall St. Permalink 2020-06-12 11:59:37+00:00

@nntaleb I am Byzantine. Permalink 2020-06-12 11:55:33+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t want to give out all your secrets! Permalink 2020-06-12 11:34:33+00:00

@nntaleb My 5 max rep drops after 2 months of cessation, but not the 1 max. Permalink 2020-06-12 11:27:44+00:00

@nntaleb La Llave Permalink 2020-06-12 11:20:41+00:00

@nntaleb You mean having a resentful halfwit accusing you of cherrypicking? Permalink 2020-06-12 11:18:52+00:00

@nntaleb Oggi Questa matina Permalink 2020-06-12 11:02:48+00:00

@nntaleb Why this drop in DL? Permalink 2020-06-12 02:04:19+00:00

@nntaleb Troppo intelettuale, no? Permalink 2020-06-12 00:47:27+00:00

@nntaleb F u money does not exist. Most people turn money obsessed once they have it. Permalink 2020-06-12 00:45:08+00:00

@nntaleb A non-intellecktshual movie in Italian Permalink 2020-06-12 00:30:12+00:00

@nntaleb Amici, sto cercando un altro film italiano divertente (per migliorare il mio italiano). Voglio qualcosa di divertente, non intellettuale. Permalink 2020-06-11 23:33:28+00:00

@nntaleb This is really 0, below 10^-6. Works for Gaussian. I ran billions for Fat Tails and did numerical integration. Permalink 2020-06-11 23:27:24+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-11 22:32:07+00:00

@nntaleb G, ask Ugo Permalink 2020-06-11 19:41:28+00:00

@nntaleb Final! Thanks for the help. Never use single point estimates for pandemics. [On fortune cookie science] Permalink 2020-06-11 19:34:25+00:00

@nntaleb Arabs had huge respect for the Rum (Greco-Romans, Romaics), solid but mild respect for the Fars (Pars Persians), denigration for the “Franj” and people to the South of them. Permalink 2020-06-11 18:32:48+00:00

@nntaleb Ana 12 lb. La7 yfta7 Spadaro Permalink 2020-06-11 18:26:20+00:00

@nntaleb The comparison is between thintails & fattails Permalink 2020-06-11 17:55:02+00:00

@nntaleb TRUE WEALTH Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Absence of envy Muscle strength Frequent laughs No meals alone No gym classes Good digestive functions No meeting rooms Periodic surprises Foamy coffee Crusty bread Ability to nap Access to a hammock Permalink 2020-06-11 17:50:23+00:00

@nntaleb This is common in both Arabic & Latin literature. Permalink 2020-06-11 17:25:04+00:00

@nntaleb Possible but only for some parameters. Permalink 2020-06-11 16:59:08+00:00

@nntaleb You’re an idiot Permalink 2020-06-11 16:54:15+00:00

@nntaleb “White” is not a genetic designation so much as it is about rank, power & connects to purity: white + somethingelse = somethingelse. Never chromocategorize. Permalink 2020-06-11 16:06:49+00:00

@nntaleb The World Through a Magnifying Glass: The High-Pass Filter Hypothesis for Autism Spectrum Disorders Permalink 2020-06-11 15:54:55+00:00

@nntaleb The one on context Permalink 2020-06-11 15:51:40+00:00

@nntaleb Just bought your book Permalink 2020-06-11 15:41:44+00:00

@nntaleb Getting better at it Permalink 2020-06-11 14:49:11+00:00

@nntaleb Never use single point estimates for pandemics. [On fortune cookie science] (Corrected) Permalink 2020-06-11 14:47:02+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, please comment/help find mistakes Never use single point estimates for pandemics. https://youtube.com/watch?v=_ZLrZc9NPVw&t=1s Permalink 2020-06-11 14:33:22+00:00

@nntaleb Tutti. 8 ½, Satiricon, Roma, Amarcord… Permalink 2020-06-11 10:23:29+00:00

@nntaleb Steroids Permalink 2020-06-11 01:51:45+00:00

@nntaleb Glad someone figured out all the tricks from the book. Permalink 2020-06-10 22:32:47+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-10 21:59:35+00:00

@nntaleb He turned 65 Permalink 2020-06-10 21:57:04+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks @zeynep for fighting for masks.👆 Permalink 2020-06-10 20:35:10+00:00

@nntaleb Solo in italiano Permalink 2020-06-10 18:19:32+00:00

@nntaleb LETTERATURA “DEL GIORNO” – Perché non scrivi più libri? – Sono uscito troppo spesso la sera. Roma ti fa perdere molto tempo. [La ragione per cui io vivo in periferia o in campagna] Permalink 2020-06-10 17:37:01+00:00

@nntaleb This said, we NEED to work on a local language stripped of Nahda influences, and reestablish our deep Mediterranean culture –we are the most Easterners of the West, the most Westerners of the East. But let’s stay scholarly in the invocation of historical facts. Permalink 2020-06-10 17:12:31+00:00

@nntaleb Actually, incorrect. The widespread use of Arabic fus7a in place of local dialects came with that “nahda” and the Maronite church was part of the process. 2: Syriac theology was introdiced by anti-Greek Nestorians during the Sassanian invasion. Fact: it is E. Aramaic not W. Permalink 2020-06-10 16:44:26+00:00

@nntaleb We learned from you. Permalink 2020-06-10 16:22:27+00:00

@nntaleb Not the point. Without scholarship, rigor & critical mind one cannot have a historical discussion. Once a person violates that they cease to exist for me as debaters. When it comes to scholarly matters I have high standards and I am free to be that way. Permalink 2020-06-10 16:21:50+00:00

@nntaleb It is a false generalization to claim that because dentists are experts, THEREFORE macroeconomists must be experts. We have been fighting charlatans since the dawn of civilization. Permalink 2020-06-10 16:14:43+00:00

@nntaleb No no no. We in the West are more authentic. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:26:08+00:00

@nntaleb 3) The Mamelouks spoke either a Turkic language or from the Caucasus (Georgian) for recruits. You are very very ignorant. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:25:29+00:00

@nntaleb You really know absolutely NO history. 1) Aramaic came as lingua franca to the Levant WITH THE SWORD when the Persians used it as state language. It is not native to Canaan. 2) Occupation does not necessarily come with a language. The Romans brought Greek for instance. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:22:17+00:00

@nntaleb The common enemy of all East Med brothers and sisters is ketchup on grape leaves. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:08:18+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks Marko! Permalink 2020-06-10 15:05:15+00:00

@nntaleb This is historical meandering. Arabic did not come with the sword, it was a later influence. And I see no reason why one foreign language should be more adapted to a Phoenician past than another. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:04:40+00:00

@nntaleb Cycling, skying Permalink 2020-06-10 14:46:48+00:00

@nntaleb These ARE superspreaders Permalink 2020-06-10 14:22:28+00:00

@nntaleb Before weightlifting Permalink 2020-06-10 14:20:59+00:00

@nntaleb Good point. Syriac is Eastern Aramaic, a lithurgical language. If anything it would be a mixture of Galilean Aramaic (Ma3lula) with old Canaanite substrates. Permalink 2020-06-10 14:09:31+00:00

@nntaleb WEAR A MASK The Salon results. Tutorial answer. Permalink 2020-06-10 13:54:13+00:00

@nntaleb Ignoring cross contagion, assuming one single exposure by client to single source (stylist) Permalink 2020-06-10 13:42:52+00:00

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (Masks) Permalink 2020-06-10 11:33:57+00:00

@nntaleb This is NOT a data point. It is a huge statistical signal. Wear masks. And require that others do so. Permalink 2020-06-10 01:31:27+00:00

@nntaleb This is NOT a data point. It is a huge statistical signal. Permalink 2020-06-10 01:28:33+00:00

@nntaleb L’ histoire d’Alexandrie n’a RIEN A VOIR avec le sujet des savafides. Je bloque les intrusions d’habitude. Permalink 2020-06-10 00:08:09+00:00

@nntaleb I hide hors sujet posts Permalink 2020-06-09 23:26:43+00:00

@nntaleb C’est hors-sujet. Permalink 2020-06-09 23:26:04+00:00

@nntaleb What does this have anything to do with anything? Permalink 2020-06-09 23:20:32+00:00

@nntaleb cc:@Mehdi_IR_DC Permalink 2020-06-09 21:03:46+00:00

@nntaleb To make things more complicated, Shah Ismail was the great-grandson of Emperor Alexios IV Komnenos. cc:@DrMichaelBonner Permalink 2020-06-09 20:43:17+00:00

@nntaleb Must be convex if close to minimum dose. Permalink 2020-06-09 20:30:27+00:00

@nntaleb Mnil dikken bi ATL Permalink 2020-06-09 20:29:35+00:00

@nntaleb Real science does not look scientific, surgeons can look more like butchers than actors playing surgeons, literature doesn’t look literary, projects don’t look like business plans, psychs are impostors & mathematics is precisely abt going to the simplest representation. Permalink 2020-06-09 20:28:50+00:00

@nntaleb B basal Permalink 2020-06-09 19:40:54+00:00

@nntaleb Precaution. Additional. Permalink 2020-06-09 19:37:45+00:00

@nntaleb Mexico? Permalink 2020-06-09 19:34:38+00:00

@nntaleb Btkabbar amma shhm Permalink 2020-06-09 19:16:44+00:00

@nntaleb Just tried. Perfect! Permalink 2020-06-09 19:15:08+00:00

@nntaleb Increased or decreased? Permalink 2020-06-09 18:42:15+00:00

@nntaleb How much more caffeine than a simple expresso? Permalink 2020-06-09 15:42:11+00:00

@nntaleb None but 2 plane rides Permalink 2020-06-09 13:45:24+00:00

@nntaleb Being tested for COVID today. If clear, will partake. Permalink 2020-06-09 12:25:39+00:00

@nntaleb Me too Permalink 2020-06-09 12:07:26+00:00

@nntaleb David figured out what economists did not: all metrics linked to a fat-tailed variable (say variance) will me MUCH MORE fat tailed. Permalink 2020-06-08 23:52:32+00:00

@nntaleb 1)You need to add the fats, 8 calories per gram. No meat is 100% fat free. 2) Water noise + digestive variation in the body may drown the signal. 1½ lbs a daily noise for 1 lb a week deficit! Wait > 10 days. Permalink 2020-06-08 19:00:53+00:00

@nntaleb Actually Most powerful Permalink 2020-06-08 14:56:01+00:00

@nntaleb Helps a lot. But depends on psalm. Psalm 104 has “gadalta meod” meaning G(Lord) is greatest (sounds familiar no?) works best. Permalink 2020-06-08 14:48:49+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-08 14:24:58+00:00

@nntaleb More coffee is better? More water? Permalink 2020-06-08 13:08:03+00:00

@nntaleb The very notion of “probability neglect” was shown to be BS in a paper made a chapter in my book (free PDF). Psychologists have NO CLUE about fat tails. https://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Consequences-Fat-Tails-Preasymptotics/dp/1544508050 Permalink 2020-06-08 11:56:40+00:00

@nntaleb Ugo, a problemo questa matina. When the coffee can is fresh, it foams. A few days later it stops foaming. Is it normal or maybe something else? Permalink 2020-06-08 11:54:11+00:00

@nntaleb Actually this is the best time for both us and NZ. Your evening. Permalink 2020-06-08 02:18:22+00:00

@nntaleb Matt, you must talk to Zack. Permalink 2020-06-08 02:08:52+00:00

@nntaleb Simon, Meds are good at blocking idiots. Permalink 2020-06-08 02:06:31+00:00

@nntaleb I know I followed him and am very impressed. Permalink 2020-06-08 01:22:55+00:00

@nntaleb Are you Persian? Azeri? Permalink 2020-06-08 00:35:20+00:00

@nntaleb The only person on @Delta who had no masks was a flight attendant on ATL-CMH DL 3014 on June 6, 2020. Return was OK. @Delta can you explain why you do not enforce the rule on your own staff? Permalink 2020-06-08 00:23:09+00:00

@nntaleb Do you enforce mandatory masks? Permalink 2020-06-08 00:18:05+00:00

@nntaleb I flew Delta today. Much more professional. Permalink 2020-06-08 00:12:00+00:00

@nntaleb No, Paphos in Cyprus. Permalink 2020-06-07 23:51:24+00:00

@nntaleb Kif mbayyan wara l mask? Permalink 2020-06-07 23:50:45+00:00

@nntaleb (They were liking our comments) Permalink 2020-06-07 23:05:55+00:00

@nntaleb Looks like @Yachting_Greece may help us… Can you do Paphos-Mykonos? How long does it take? Permalink 2020-06-07 23:05:36+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-07 22:28:49+00:00

@nntaleb The Med is wayyyyy too small for us. Doing Athens-Mykonos in July because I don’t want to fly. Otherwise in Leb most of July. Permalink 2020-06-07 22:26:23+00:00

@nntaleb Tarapia tapioco come se fosse antani. Permalink 2020-06-07 21:13:26+00:00

@nntaleb Same, Beirut, Athens, then ferry. Permalink 2020-06-07 21:09:51+00:00

@nntaleb La versione in italiano … e originale? voicevover? Permalink 2020-06-07 20:55:21+00:00

@nntaleb Fabrizio flaneur ha suggerito nel 2016 Permalink 2020-06-07 20:48:37+00:00

@nntaleb No, e stato sorpreso Permalink 2020-06-07 20:48:02+00:00

@nntaleb Si, Fabrizio! Permalink 2020-06-07 20:45:28+00:00

@nntaleb Supercazzola in inglese: Permalink 2020-06-07 20:38:50+00:00

@nntaleb To Europe? From NY? If so, Me too we should study airlines protocols/density. Permalink 2020-06-07 20:25:48+00:00

@nntaleb Oxygen is sooo overrated. Permalink 2020-06-07 20:21:32+00:00

@nntaleb You are missing the convexity of probability to viral exposure. Permalink 2020-06-07 19:59:45+00:00

@nntaleb Where you going? Permalink 2020-06-07 19:47:51+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, higher order effects fall off at p^2n Permalink 2020-06-07 19:00:18+00:00

@nntaleb R0 ahd include the wffect that every incremental interaction has a lower infection rate because others might have infected them, no? Permalink 2020-06-07 18:59:01+00:00

@nntaleb Then R0 –>number of people you encounter Permalink 2020-06-07 18:22:25+00:00

@nntaleb Great! If we were in the concave zone then R0 would be astronomical, no? Permalink 2020-06-07 18:21:39+00:00

@nntaleb Already in the R0, no? Permalink 2020-06-07 18:17:18+00:00

@nntaleb Must be convex. Permalink 2020-06-07 18:07:22+00:00

@nntaleb (plane is almost empty, so 2 surgical) Permalink 2020-06-07 18:06:27+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t need to know what it is. Permalink 2020-06-07 18:05:20+00:00

@nntaleb On Planes: I wear 2 masks plus goggles (plus N95 when there is a crowd). [Now] Permalink 2020-06-07 18:02:17+00:00

@nntaleb That would make the drop even better because it becomes p p_1, p_1

Permalink 2020-06-07 17:54:27+00:00

@nntaleb Inté l malfonito Permalink 2020-06-07 17:52:11+00:00

@nntaleb Does not change the story because they are both <=1. Please think before tweeting. Permalink 2020-06-07 17:49:53+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, can someone check my logic Re: Masks? Any error? If so Masks could SOLVE the pandemic. I have been saying Masks are NECESSARY since Feb, didn’t realize they could be SUFFICIENT! Permalink 2020-06-07 17:47:28+00:00

@nntaleb In fact not even secular. Locals decide. Permalink 2020-06-07 17:25:37+00:00

@nntaleb All across fractally. Permalink 2020-06-07 17:16:07+00:00

@nntaleb Most likely same culture all across Canaan. Ignore political matters, this is the historian’s error. Permalink 2020-06-07 17:15:42+00:00

@nntaleb Mnil Trké, @Marcellenassif ? Permalink 2020-06-07 16:58:15+00:00

@nntaleb No nation has uniformity. Except for its elites. Permalink 2020-06-07 16:52:56+00:00

@nntaleb Decentralized secular Permalink 2020-06-07 16:40:35+00:00

@nntaleb Which #RWRI did you attend, Jack? Permalink 2020-06-07 14:53:36+00:00

@nntaleb Again, we mistook the lower bound for the total effect. This is just starting; we don’t know the track record. Permalink 2020-06-07 14:37:29+00:00

@nntaleb Slippers are no no no. I even get my shoes shined before my Zoom lectures. Permalink 2020-06-07 13:52:12+00:00

@nntaleb 6- SUMMARY: @Safaitic is looking inscriptions in various scripts to replicate period pronunciation, & grammar rather than literary sources. Busts the theory that local Semitic dialects descend from “Classical Arabic”, fabricated later by scholars. NEXT: Do same for Aramaic. Permalink 2020-06-07 13:48:44+00:00

@nntaleb His Gadness and I think alike in numerous things. Permalink 2020-06-07 13:37:45+00:00

@nntaleb No no no no! Permalink 2020-06-07 13:37:00+00:00

@nntaleb SOUL IN THE GAME In Visconti’s movies, when a box was meant to have diamonds, he made sure to put real ones, even when the box remained openened. Never lecture/meet on Zoom unless you dress top to bottom as in real life. And avoid fortune cookie science. #AntiBSVending Permalink 2020-06-07 13:09:28+00:00

@nntaleb A lot of BS in linguistics, as @Safaitic showed and discussed, especially in classifications. Permalink 2020-06-07 11:43:03+00:00

@nntaleb In Kura we pronounce mwayy, in Beirut mayy Permalink 2020-06-07 11:23:52+00:00

@nntaleb Mushroombrain, masks have no side effects (we’ve been using them for millennia). Permalink 2020-06-07 10:45:21+00:00

@nntaleb Las Vegas is a superspreader hub: crowds redistribute germs across the country, with maximal efficiency. Crowds in less connected cities keep germs largely local. Permalink 2020-06-07 03:12:00+00:00

@nntaleb Quel ramdam Permalink 2020-06-07 01:18:49+00:00

@nntaleb Oui, plus qu’un chouaia. Permalink 2020-06-07 00:25:31+00:00

@nntaleb Made @Decafquest sorry he did not fly from Beirut for his interview. You see how much I flew for 2 minutes? 300 miles per minute. Permalink 2020-06-06 23:42:59+00:00

@nntaleb What the fuck do you mean “not a new notion”? I block idiots. Permalink 2020-06-06 23:38:50+00:00

@nntaleb The PDF https://www.academia.edu/43189829/Al-Jallad._2020._The_Damascus_Psalm_Fragment_Middle_Arabic_and_the_Legacy_of_Old_Ḥigāzī_w._a_contribution_by_R._Vollandt And the hard copy https://www.isdistribution.com/BookDetail.aspx?aId=140594 Permalink 2020-06-06 23:38:03+00:00

@nntaleb As a kid Permalink 2020-06-06 23:26:21+00:00

@nntaleb We are talking about ONE DOMAIN, $$$or professional, not individual safety. Permalink 2020-06-06 23:24:08+00:00

@nntaleb SYMPOSIUM ON SAFAITIC, 5 My conversation with Maestro Al-Jallad. I didn’t use no Zoom & #skininthegame paid proper respect by going 631 miles to meet him for a walk in the forest. Permalink 2020-06-06 23:21:25+00:00

@nntaleb Bingo. Hence the “stay” Permalink 2020-06-06 23:04:54+00:00

@nntaleb Just read an interview by his son… he did not like his father. That is not … Permalink 2020-06-06 22:43:06+00:00

@nntaleb Vous connaissez Joseph Balsamo? L’aventurier sicilien derriere le personnage n’est autre que Cagliostro Permalink 2020-06-06 22:37:08+00:00

@nntaleb A lot of both. Working hard will certainly make you prosperous. To be & stay a billionaire you need both skills and luck. Permalink 2020-06-06 21:43:38+00:00

@nntaleb Shukran is not Lebanese. Permalink 2020-06-06 19:43:25+00:00

@nntaleb Je ne lis plus rien en traduction– presque. Permalink 2020-06-06 19:42:41+00:00

@nntaleb Pleiade Permalink 2020-06-06 19:40:59+00:00

@nntaleb Review Amzn https://www.amazon.com/review/ROV37CI7SRQ3N/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rdp_perm?ie=UTF8&ASIN=0140449264 Permalink 2020-06-06 18:42:44+00:00

@nntaleb He should have stopped earlier. Permalink 2020-06-06 17:19:03+00:00

@nntaleb Pensano di aver “failed” Permalink 2020-06-06 17:18:21+00:00

@nntaleb Wait, wait. more versions to come. Permalink 2020-06-06 14:22:11+00:00

@nntaleb Yes that’s why he invested there. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:57:05+00:00

@nntaleb Beirut Permalink 2020-06-06 13:53:38+00:00

@nntaleb Which part of the “no matter how rich” you didn’t get? Permalink 2020-06-06 13:49:19+00:00

@nntaleb Fuck that. I write on my own terms. See references in book (referenced) Permalink 2020-06-06 13:45:31+00:00

@nntaleb It snows in Lebanon, sometimes 80% of the country is covered. Only a small strip is coastal. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:43:47+00:00

@nntaleb I a dit cela pour se donner des lettres de nobless car Celine etait considere comme litteraire. Il est de loin meilleur prosateur. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:39:36+00:00

@nntaleb would be nice if you could … follow the thread before responding Permalink 2020-06-06 13:35:42+00:00

@nntaleb No, why don’t you fuckoff? Permalink 2020-06-06 13:26:25+00:00

@nntaleb EVIDENCE BASED SCIENCE IS NOT SCIENCE Clearer version, with examples. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:24:23+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:10:53+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-06 13:09:38+00:00

@nntaleb Not quite. Some feel poorer. That’s my point. Permalink 2020-06-06 12:59:13+00:00

@nntaleb No, but same school. BTW de Botton was an Egyptian Jew; Alexandrian Greeks-Italians-GrecoSyrians-Jews, etc. are the most sophisticated people I have ever met. Permalink 2020-06-06 12:58:19+00:00

@nntaleb An old school European financier told me long time ago: “Those who feel they succeeded in finance write novels or talk mostly about art, culture, politics, or their hobbies; those who failed, no matter how rich, are still talking (or writing) only about finance & markets. Permalink 2020-06-06 12:54:41+00:00

@nntaleb No mushroombrain I explain that naive falsificationism is incompatible with nondeterministic (statistical) approaches but asymmetry is CENTRAL in ranking evidence and classes of distribution. See reference (my stat book) before bullshitting. Permalink 2020-06-06 12:36:03+00:00

@nntaleb From airport, first (short) flight. Permalink 2020-06-06 11:24:03+00:00

@nntaleb Voila, Adam Permalink 2020-06-06 11:23:08+00:00

@nntaleb 4- I will be meeting Maestro Al-Jallad @safaitic for a walk this PM so please supply with questions. Will also supply a synthesis. P.S. The best French prose writer and one who writes the way people REALLY spoke (“argot”) before TV destroyed the local language: Frédéric Dard. Permalink 2020-06-06 11:13:28+00:00

@nntaleb Yes error it is p^2 not 1-p^2 and R_0 severely reduced yes BECAUSE it is linear to p^2 not p. But there is the convexity of p to viral load where the gravy lies Thanks. Permalink 2020-06-06 11:07:08+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, thanks; did you see the part before in convexity of p to viral load? Permalink 2020-06-06 10:50:03+00:00

@nntaleb Ghassan in my cousin 4th degree remote. Permalink 2020-06-06 00:10:52+00:00

@nntaleb Non capish at all. Even less. Permalink 2020-06-05 21:06:27+00:00

@nntaleb How did you guess? Permalink 2020-06-05 21:05:52+00:00

@nntaleb Frankopan has culture. He knows what to look for. Permalink 2020-06-05 21:05:39+00:00

@nntaleb Replace policy with risk management/decision making. Permalink 2020-06-05 20:56:05+00:00

@nntaleb Do you have proofs it doesn’t save lives? Permalink 2020-06-05 20:21:24+00:00

@nntaleb You’re confabulating. I am not saying that. Permalink 2020-06-05 19:40:13+00:00

@nntaleb Non capish Permalink 2020-06-05 19:39:14+00:00

@nntaleb I don’t know yet @PZalloua Permalink 2020-06-05 19:24:38+00:00

@nntaleb So fucking what? Permalink 2020-06-05 19:15:45+00:00

@nntaleb You will witness that my part of Lebanon is vastly more historical, more Mediterranean, richer in history that Pierre’s, 14 miles away. Permalink 2020-06-05 19:00:13+00:00

@nntaleb Missing page Permalink 2020-06-05 18:23:17+00:00

@nntaleb EVIDENCE BASED SCIENCE IS NOT SCIENCE Paper in Progress, for comments. Permalink 2020-06-05 18:20:53+00:00

@nntaleb I learned that when you open the can, you get foam very easily. Then it stops 3-5 days later. Permalink 2020-06-05 18:18:37+00:00

@nntaleb http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/nntbio.htm Permalink 2020-06-05 18:04:07+00:00

@nntaleb Reversals of signs are not statistically important; it is the magnitude of the variations. Permalink 2020-06-05 16:24:42+00:00

@nntaleb Well known for time series. Permalink 2020-06-05 16:09:59+00:00

@nntaleb Before blocking idiots. Permalink 2020-06-05 16:08:26+00:00

@nntaleb Asynchronous correlations Permalink 2020-06-05 16:06:28+00:00

@nntaleb People may like a word –aesthetics Permalink 2020-06-05 14:39:59+00:00

@nntaleb No Permalink 2020-06-05 14:38:00+00:00

@nntaleb hahaha! Permalink 2020-06-05 14:18:30+00:00

@nntaleb James, block idiots. Nobody has NITPICKED numbers except media. Permalink 2020-06-05 13:55:27+00:00

@nntaleb 3- He got it. Bottom up linguistics vs top down. Permalink 2020-06-05 13:03:33+00:00

@nntaleb 2- Either, in 8th C Levantine Greek (and possibly Romaic “Rum” Greek), β was pronounced “b” or Arabic ب was pronounced “v”. Unless it was a convention that switched “v” to “ف”. Permalink 2020-06-05 12:29:02+00:00

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY SYMPOSIUM AR THIS The genius of Maestro Al-Jallad @Safaitic: he gets that if Future pple want to know how today’s people speak, shd not look at academic books but FB conversations & foreign script MY Q. 1-Discovering “Rab” is lunar not solar (ελ ραβ) not ερραβ. True? Permalink 2020-06-05 12:25:42+00:00

@nntaleb All I have to say is that I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-05 12:14:34+00:00

@nntaleb My limit is 30 seconds but with Maestro Al Jallad different story Permalink 2020-06-05 12:10:44+00:00

@nntaleb If so, write to the firms where you want to invest discuss with them. Twitter is not the place. Permalink 2020-06-05 02:59:18+00:00

@nntaleb I am blocked by both these idiots. Permalink 2020-06-05 02:11:09+00:00

@nntaleb I assume that people share data with regulators, investors, and potential investors under mega qualification rules. Not with Twitter trolls. Gabish? Permalink 2020-06-05 02:06:24+00:00

@nntaleb You can never convince BS vendors. But you may get some entertainment getting them angry. Permalink 2020-06-05 01:40:08+00:00

@nntaleb Ma in francese… volio imperare la lingua di Dante e Berlusconi Permalink 2020-06-05 01:31:54+00:00

@nntaleb Hilarious! 2 BS vendors I’ve busted, @lopezdeprado & Phil🐁@Ptetlock (unrelated fields) became friends, joined forces &… are both losing it. Big time. They are now at the stage where they are now frantically trying to throw the kitchen sink at yours truly. https://twitter.com/Tyler_Rongione/status/1268694621741293568 Permalink 2020-06-05 01:18:59+00:00

@nntaleb Victory! Corporations cannot ALWAYS buy science. Permalink 2020-06-04 18:51:44+00:00

@nntaleb Even their account closing page is messed up. Does not respond Permalink 2020-06-04 18:48:49+00:00

@nntaleb It is not set-up for people who want to use it for transactions? Permalink 2020-06-04 18:46:46+00:00

@nntaleb Too late. Closing account. Permalink 2020-06-04 18:30:03+00:00

@nntaleb I closed the @coinbase account (opened a few months ago). Like Must, they answered me (blue check) when I complained but ignore the regular person. Permalink 2020-06-04 18:22:46+00:00

@nntaleb Do they charge for wiring from Bank? Permalink 2020-06-04 18:18:15+00:00

@nntaleb Yes my reaction was because I am switching to another provider. Permalink 2020-06-04 18:14:16+00:00

@nntaleb RWRI is 40 h Permalink 2020-06-04 18:02:34+00:00

@nntaleb I never offend His Gadness. Permalink 2020-06-04 17:56:22+00:00

@nntaleb @coinbase What is going on with you? Why don’t you respond to errors? Permalink 2020-06-04 17:50:55+00:00

@nntaleb He is exempt. Talking about the probability D/T literature. Permalink 2020-06-04 17:38:23+00:00

@nntaleb Read the book . Explains ranking Permalink 2020-06-04 16:46:54+00:00

@nntaleb More formal Permalink 2020-06-04 16:25:04+00:00

@nntaleb This is actually #RWRI Permalink 2020-06-04 14:45:19+00:00

@nntaleb tazzine Permalink 2020-06-04 14:28:59+00:00

@nntaleb Ma questa tazzina non e Lindy. In plastica non vetro. Sono a la ricerca de tassine di vetro. Permalink 2020-06-04 14:27:56+00:00

@nntaleb Bronze age Permalink 2020-06-04 14:12:16+00:00

@nntaleb Hayda l lower bound. Ana jéyé heik heik. Permalink 2020-06-04 13:44:56+00:00

@nntaleb La prossima volta non dimenticarmi. Quatordici persone ma non io? Permalink 2020-06-04 13:35:56+00:00

@nntaleb You forgot your devoted friend! Permalink 2020-06-04 13:30:45+00:00

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-06-04 13:26:36+00:00

@nntaleb No Permalink 2020-06-04 13:12:42+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, for discussion To expand with @yaneerbaryam and @DrCirillo cc:@spyrosmakrid Permalink 2020-06-04 13:10:40+00:00

@nntaleb Both Balkan and North Levantine cultures come from Anatolia (dress, music, dance, food even outside Med areas) Permalink 2020-06-04 13:09:37+00:00

@nntaleb Anatolia Permalink 2020-06-04 13:08:26+00:00

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-06-04 13:07:37+00:00

@nntaleb Not in printable form. All uni and technical presses ban the availability of final PDF in a way that allows the physical replication of the book. Which is why I elected to start my own publishing firm. Permalink 2020-06-04 11:53:03+00:00

@nntaleb There should be another version for that size. Permalink 2020-06-04 11:44:25+00:00

@nntaleb Unfair I lost weight since! Permalink 2020-06-04 11:43:53+00:00

@nntaleb Which discussion? With whom? Permalink 2020-06-04 11:29:05+00:00

@nntaleb Should be 6 by 9 Permalink 2020-06-04 11:28:17+00:00

@nntaleb Everything East-Med (includes S. Italy) comes originally from the triangle Zagros-Anatolia-Southern Caucasus (Georgia-Armenia-Iran-Central Anatolia). Permalink 2020-06-04 11:21:43+00:00

@nntaleb Iki-bir Permalink 2020-06-04 11:18:36+00:00

@nntaleb I guess I am one of the first authors who helps people to legally pirat their books. The US version starts to ship later this month. Permalink 2020-06-04 11:16:42+00:00

@nntaleb How much did it cost to print in BRL? Permalink 2020-06-04 11:15:02+00:00

@nntaleb Some “besh” is Turkish, no? Permalink 2020-06-04 11:08:01+00:00

@nntaleb La traduzione in inglese e ancora piu … Permalink 2020-06-04 11:06:37+00:00

@nntaleb In Amici miei? Permalink 2020-06-04 10:44:54+00:00

@nntaleb Supercazzola (scappellamento a destra) Permalink 2020-06-04 10:38:24+00:00

@nntaleb W Petro Trad Permalink 2020-06-03 22:35:18+00:00

@nntaleb Choukrane is not in Lebanese. Permalink 2020-06-03 22:12:52+00:00

@nntaleb But the fact that it has an Arabic name doesn’t contradict the other fact that there is practically no Arab ancestry in the Peninsula. Permalink 2020-06-03 20:19:17+00:00

@nntaleb Arabic, the “al” is not present in Phoenician. Permalink 2020-06-03 20:12:48+00:00

@nntaleb Silvi my ethics ban me from front running and hoarding. Permalink 2020-06-03 19:20:49+00:00

@nntaleb Bru7 knt kill shahr jm3a. Halla2 nater la yfta7o l matarat. Permalink 2020-06-03 19:20:16+00:00

@nntaleb Msh shaghlté. Ma b7bb l ejtimé3at! Permalink 2020-06-03 19:11:47+00:00

@nntaleb Great! Another mistake debunked. Permalink 2020-06-03 19:10:30+00:00

@nntaleb Ha! Natrikék! Permalink 2020-06-03 19:09:07+00:00

@nntaleb Generalizing the particular Permalink 2020-06-03 19:07:37+00:00

@nntaleb Lal 7all bil Lebnén baddkon ra2is wizara sinné immo maruniyyé marto shi3iyyé min emm armaniyyé… …Ye3né wa7ad rum ortodox. Permalink 2020-06-03 19:03:44+00:00

@nntaleb I ordered La LLave. Will see. Permalink 2020-06-03 18:54:17+00:00

@nntaleb OK, ordered @tabacco_y_rhum Permalink 2020-06-03 18:25:57+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, could this grinder work? Permalink 2020-06-03 18:16:06+00:00

@nntaleb qareb means gets closer. Permalink 2020-06-03 16:46:19+00:00

@nntaleb 3rd moment must be finite Permalink 2020-06-03 15:29:22+00:00

@nntaleb “The word” not the words. Permalink 2020-06-03 15:14:30+00:00

@nntaleb No. BE is not for fat tails Permalink 2020-06-03 15:11:25+00:00

@nntaleb Bl lebnene natra mnatra! Permalink 2020-06-03 15:04:45+00:00

@nntaleb Good job. Many “statisticians” have no clue about The Law of Large Number LLN …subject of my Technical Inverto. Some know what happens when n=1 or n= infinity, not for n= 34 or 671… Cancels much of the tools in social science. Permalink 2020-06-03 14:58:47+00:00

@nntaleb Mais avec la paix avec le Liban bien sur! Permalink 2020-06-03 13:32:32+00:00

@nntaleb Ha shana aba… Permalink 2020-06-03 13:24:30+00:00

@nntaleb bférégh l sabr Permalink 2020-06-03 12:30:20+00:00

@nntaleb Un grand honneur! Permalink 2020-06-03 12:28:59+00:00

@nntaleb Yes al gharb = “the West” Permalink 2020-06-02 22:59:23+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry missed Permalink 2020-06-02 22:54:52+00:00

@nntaleb You forgot the “if”. Permalink 2020-06-02 22:41:13+00:00

@nntaleb 8:30 am in the US? I am curious Permalink 2020-06-02 18:31:22+00:00

@nntaleb Efkharisto poly! Permalink 2020-06-02 18:18:19+00:00

@nntaleb 4) The older generation must not justify its “utility” to the younger one. They earned it. CIVILIZATION: Athenians granted old mules who worked hard a privileged and “honorable” retirement, free to roam with a pension at public expense. That’s the reverse of Geronticide. Permalink 2020-06-02 18:03:20+00:00

@nntaleb RWRI 14, Aug 10-21, online #RWRI can’t teach you to make money (nobody really can). But we can show you how to survive/not blowup. #RWRI won’t teach you probability (you don’t really need it). But we can teach you #BSbusting of Levels 0-3. #BSbusting! http://realworldrisk.com Permalink 2020-06-02 17:31:19+00:00

@nntaleb Not the point! They have earned their retirement and they are allowed to not be despoiled of their dividend. Permalink 2020-06-02 16:58:18+00:00

@nntaleb 3)Do not disrupt the Silver rule: don’t treat the older generation the way you don’t want the next generation to treat you. Civilization and group moral rectitude started with the Silver and Golden rules. Geronticide is morally repulsive; only accepted in nouveau-riche societies. Permalink 2020-06-02 16:21:28+00:00

@nntaleb 2) Societies types: one for which a life is a life, another where life is some actuarial number. Watch the ravages economics has done to modern societies: comes with scientism, pseudoutilitarianism, pseudocost-benefit analysis & … moral decay. As in Dostoyevski’s Crocodile. Permalink 2020-06-02 16:04:47+00:00

@nntaleb This is spurious. If someone kills someone else BY NEGLIGENCE, should the penalty be age dependent? It is permissible to kill the old? Permalink 2020-06-02 14:11:59+00:00

@nntaleb They statistically *would* can also apply to murder. Permalink 2020-06-02 14:10:08+00:00

@nntaleb LOGICAL INCONSISTENCY DU JOUR Someone said “if an old person dies of COVID, it’s not a big deal because they could have died of someone else”. To be consistent, you must accept: “If a someone kills an old person, it’s not a big deal because they could have died of someone else”. Permalink 2020-06-02 13:55:00+00:00

@nntaleb Turkish sofra Permalink 2020-06-02 13:04:51+00:00

@nntaleb It would be طويله not طاوله Permalink 2020-06-02 12:50:05+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile; the point is because Rabbis were ALSO doctors. Permalink 2020-06-02 12:38:53+00:00

@nntaleb Not Arabic Permalink 2020-06-02 12:32:19+00:00

@nntaleb The French colloquial uses for country “bled” from the Arabic بلد , “cleb” or “clebard” for dog from كلب, but the official language bowdlerises such influences. New DuJour’: “To whistle” in Lebanese “sawfar” is from the Byzantine Greek σφυρίζω Permalink 2020-06-02 12:18:49+00:00

@nntaleb We call this trbayzé! Permalink 2020-06-02 11:59:20+00:00

@nntaleb Trké Permalink 2020-06-02 11:53:21+00:00

@nntaleb There were no planes… But we used it for planes Permalink 2020-06-02 11:48:28+00:00

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL IRONIES DU JOUR +Spaniards use the Arabic word for table, mesa, مائدة, while Lebanese use “tawlé” from Italian tavola & Egyptians use “tarabeza” frm Greek Τραπέζι. + French (slang) use the Arabic “toubib” طبيب, when Lebanese use “hakim” linked to Hebrew “rabbi” חכם Permalink 2020-06-02 11:47:06+00:00

@nntaleb Used to say néwlun, from the Greek nevlon. Permalink 2020-06-02 11:39:32+00:00

@nntaleb Per l’ultima volta? Permalink 2020-06-02 11:35:12+00:00

@nntaleb Our paper explained on @physorg_com Permalink 2020-06-02 11:08:12+00:00

@nntaleb Racism is the use of the law of large numbers (and scaling) in the opposite direction, by attributing presumed population traits to single individuals. Permalink 2020-06-02 10:49:38+00:00

@nntaleb The fellow @octonion knows his stuff (probabilist, certified nonBSVendor). Similar to data from Northern Italia (adjusted for obesity, etc.). That is almost a lower bound as we can have fatalities from people infected 2 months ago. Permalink 2020-06-02 00:17:54+00:00

@nntaleb Lamb? Permalink 2020-06-01 22:35:58+00:00

@nntaleb SECOND PRINTING now freely available PDF Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications Permalink 2020-06-01 22:35:31+00:00

@nntaleb Any idea about the Indo-European or other origin? Permalink 2020-06-01 22:31:28+00:00

@nntaleb I am very imperfect. Permalink 2020-06-01 17:42:00+00:00

@nntaleb (A boring dispute w/academics; ignore) Thanks @HietanenPaavo for sending this. Turns out @PTetlock🐁 is lying, claiming I made a private dispute public. There was NO private dispute; he just started a public harrassment campaign (“the 🐁”). Paavo linked https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3A%40nntaleb%20%40ptetlock%20until%3A2016-12-31%20since%3A2000-12-31&src=typed_query&f=live Permalink 2020-06-01 16:16:23+00:00

@nntaleb Shahada is the same as the Syriac “7ad Aloho” Permalink 2020-06-01 16:06:48+00:00

@nntaleb No this is the study used to discredit Raoult Permalink 2020-06-01 14:09:48+00:00

@nntaleb A reminder that 1) Science is hard, 2) Science depends on statistical inference, itself depends on probability. Permalink 2020-06-01 14:04:34+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-06-01 13:49:25+00:00

@nntaleb Philologist friends, Is the root for מופת in anyway linked to muppistu in Akkadian? If not, what is the Semitic (or non-Semitic) root? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1265823241240825863 Permalink 2020-06-01 13:13:59+00:00

@nntaleb Wrong etymlgy. Malachite = green Permalink 2020-06-01 02:30:24+00:00

@nntaleb My full time professional specialty is squid ink. The rest are hobbies. Permalink 2020-06-01 02:24:05+00:00

@nntaleb Independence means never supporting a person, only select policies. Permalink 2020-06-01 01:16:09+00:00

@nntaleb I would have blocked this imbecile, Joan (mistook him for a scientist). But it would eliminate the discussion. Permalink 2020-06-01 00:13:07+00:00

@nntaleb I publicly said I would never vote for Trump, on CNBC. This is a smear campaign. Permalink 2020-06-01 00:06:53+00:00

@nntaleb That’s Germany. L’Italie commence a Naples. Permalink 2020-06-01 00:03:29+00:00

@nntaleb Mon ami, we were fighting with them ALL ALONG (@yaneerbaryam , @DrCirillo) because they could not handle absence of evidence which is stronger under fat tails. Permalink 2020-05-31 23:58:59+00:00

@nntaleb 130/70 Permalink 2020-05-31 22:55:07+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile, no. Permalink 2020-05-31 22:53:14+00:00

@nntaleb He does not get that we said that EPIDEMIOLOGY is useful as a field of study but they proved unable to deal with policy recommendations when it comes to tail risk. It is like being a doctor and missing most of medicine. Permalink 2020-05-31 21:40:10+00:00

@nntaleb Un ancetre commun aux Menasce et Cattaui? Permalink 2020-05-31 20:50:50+00:00

@nntaleb Tripple imbecile: I am offering PRECISE solutions. It is just that charlatans don’t like them. https://twitter.com/GavinChait/status/1267182088396177414 Permalink 2020-05-31 20:45:04+00:00

@nntaleb René Cattaui est aussi ton ancetre? Permalink 2020-05-31 20:38:38+00:00

@nntaleb Je vais donc passer par Turin! Je serai a Milan en novembre. Permalink 2020-05-31 20:28:10+00:00

@nntaleb L’ accento e meta francese meta ebraico Permalink 2020-05-31 20:27:04+00:00

@nntaleb Hai vissuto a Roma, no? Genitori diplomatici? Permalink 2020-05-31 20:21:53+00:00

@nntaleb Tu connais l’expression! Permalink 2020-05-31 20:20:25+00:00

@nntaleb Ron, je parlais de ton grand-oncle Permalink 2020-05-31 19:54:39+00:00

@nntaleb Batroun? Permalink 2020-05-31 19:38:29+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ Things that went intellectually bankrupt over the pandemics & will hardly recover: Epidemiology Fortune cookie (positive) “evidence” base science Bureaucratic topdown structures: WHO, CDC, UK Group Rent seeking academia can no longer be financed. Universities will crumble. Permalink 2020-05-31 18:59:05+00:00

@nntaleb I mio turno Permalink 2020-05-31 18:43:58+00:00

@nntaleb How you did in this pandemic, as a country, a village, a business, a group, or an individual, whether emotionally, economically, or morally, is an indication of how robust you are and how fit you will be for the next decades. Permalink 2020-05-31 18:30:45+00:00

@nntaleb Aretas is Hareth Permalink 2020-05-31 18:12:13+00:00

@nntaleb Lying down it’s always lower Permalink 2020-05-31 16:34:59+00:00

@nntaleb I will take them back; guaranteed Permalink 2020-05-31 16:34:05+00:00

@nntaleb Liguria? Permalink 2020-05-31 13:40:26+00:00

@nntaleb Benefits of Quarantine: No restaurants: no seed oil, no bad grains. + More time to bust BS Vendors, read novels. + Weight loss 12lbs, resting heart rate 49 BPM. Permalink 2020-05-31 13:32:53+00:00

@nntaleb Pope Francis : Stop the destruction of a historical and cultural site in Nahr El-Kalb, Lebanon! – Sign the Petition! http://chng.it/wyBSz2Nb via @Change Permalink 2020-05-31 13:28:59+00:00

@nntaleb It also depends on the music, as you will see. It is very sensitive. Permalink 2020-05-31 13:13:41+00:00

@nntaleb That’s how it is spelled in Atlanta, GA. Permalink 2020-05-31 13:00:27+00:00

@nntaleb Added to the book a comment on “evidence based” scientism https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-05-31 12:34:21+00:00

@nntaleb You need music in the background. Permalink 2020-05-31 12:12:40+00:00

@nntaleb Kept getting injuries from cleans. Do them with lower weights. I only get injured when I listen to advice, or watch a video. I never get injured when I follow my intuition or take tiny “nudges”. Permalink 2020-05-31 10:28:02+00:00

@nntaleb Look at the reactions to the warnings in Jan. We had a barrage of idiots many of whom deleted their tweets. Permalink 2020-05-31 00:44:48+00:00

@nntaleb Hoy! Permalink 2020-05-31 00:39:56+00:00

@nntaleb You’re an honest person, Jaffer. Argumentative, but honest. Permalink 2020-05-31 00:19:06+00:00

@nntaleb You are talking to an imbecile, Ofer. Permalink 2020-05-31 00:12:28+00:00

@nntaleb Whivh one? Permalink 2020-05-31 00:11:55+00:00