Never use single point estimates for pandemics 5/13/20
@Monsantobuster Prof Taleb @PTetlock does not know what a probability distribution means. pic.twitter.com/YAXNpVst4s Permalink 8:10 AM – 14 May 2020
@bohemianGunjan “Panic is good only if you panic early, and as a trader the first thing you learn is to panic early”. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb. @nntaleb Amazing talk, thanks @MFBALA, @AyeshaFaridi1 pic.twitter.com/oVkA9hj0SL Permalink 7:45 AM – 14 May 2020
@nntaleb Removed the black board https://twitter.com/MFBALA/status/1260861161354002433 Permalink 4:17 AM – 14 May 2020
@nntaleb Ready in front of my blackboard ! #Voyage2020 https://twitter.com/pvsubramanyam/status/1260875407441760257 Permalink 4:05 AM – 14 May 2020
@nntaleb https://twitter.com/digvijoy_c/status/1260719597126324228?s=20 Permalink 5:26 PM – 13 May 2020
@mikeandallie Sharing ideas from @nntaleb ‘s “never use point estimates for pandemics” video with kids https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2020/05/13/sharing-ideas-from-nassim-talebs-point-estimate-for-pandemics-video-with-kids/ #math #mathchat Permalink 4:08 PM – 13 May 2020
@nntaleb What I mean by LOCALISM. Linked to subsidiarity: you leave to HIGHER collective structures things that cannot be done by the individual, under constraints of liberty. We need govt where we can’t sue (systemic harm: viruses, GMOs, invasions). Govt is the systemic risk mgr. Permalink 1:35 PM – 13 May 2020
@nntaleb Never use single point estimates for pandemics https://youtu.be/_ZLrZc9NPVw via @YouTube Permalink 1:27 PM – 13 May 2020
@nntaleb Voila https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZLrZc9NPVw&feature=youtu.be Permalink 10:07 AM – 13 May 2020
@nntaleb For pandemics if the average exists, about ~95-99.9% of observations would fall BELOW the average. Aside from the slow workings of the law of large numbers. Should I explain this in a short video? Permalink 5:24 AM – 13 May 2020
@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo forthcoming in Nature Physics later this week explaining the point, @mattwridley. Tail exponent <1, even possibly <½ means NEVER issue a single point forecast and NEVER present an average. pic.twitter.com/51GNm1cr5t Permalink 5:16 AM – 13 May 2020
@nntaleb ERRORS 101 Never produce a point estimate for risk management, esp. in a fat tailed domain, rather show statistical properties. Never judge a risk management stance from point forecasts. These errors are promoted by the Idiot of Pennsylvania, Phil the rat Tetlock @PTetlock. https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1259898818017058818 Permalink 4:49 AM – 13 May 2020
@nntaleb Why you should NEVER have awards in academia. https://twitter.com/GowagsKyle/status/1260530857821028352 Permalink 4:29 AM – 13 May 2020
@nntaleb No, @RaminNasibov that’s not Umberto Eco’s library. His library is below. https://twitter.com/RaminNasibov/status/1260142681495306240 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/bWbltHFv9S”> pic.twitter.com/bWbltHFv9S Permalink 4:20 AM – 13 May 2020
@nntaleb Post dinner, lockdown. pic.twitter.com/xRLGE5CFe9 Permalink 6:18 PM – 12 May 2020
@nntaleb Note the response to masks. Some people are “libertarians” because of a mental defect, a combination of severe inhibition of logical faculties coupled with sociopathic behaviors. Others like @justinamash are genuinely multiscale localists. pic.twitter.com/IMQE2e6yiO Permalink 6:15 PM – 12 May 2020
@nntaleb Point isn’t even reopening. It is the preponderance of people without masks in stores! https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1260372488955060225 Permalink 6:09 PM – 12 May 2020
@nntaleb Here is my adaptation: work with a *real* blackboard on zoom. Just finished a discussion with @fotpetr and @spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/fotpetr/status/1260229030873268227?s=20 Permalink 8:35 AM – 12 May 2020
@nntaleb Lebanon fared exceedinly well, <10 fatalities per million compared to > 500 per million in hot spots (& growing). https://twitter.com/UntergrundmannG/status/1260125696417918977 Permalink 2:47 AM – 12 May 2020
@nntaleb 3) Personal resets: I have been eating in restaurants 10 times a week… Hard to adapt to new environment because home eating can ~ food quality w/best ingredients but will never replace the exhilaration of an ambient crowd… Maybe they will reset & start garden restaurants! Permalink 4:01 PM – 11 May 2020
@nntaleb 2) Many small professional resets: learned to lecture on Zoom. Learned to set up a blackboard behind me for illustrations. Of course could start a business along these lines. Universities are going out of business & there is something to grab as they are too incompetent to adapt. Permalink 3:56 PM – 11 May 2020
@nntaleb ADAPTATION Do a total reset professionally, economically, personally. Treat this thing as if it were here to stay & make sure you can do with it. If it goes away, it will be a bonus but remember that the shadow of the following one will be progressively built into the system. Permalink 3:24 PM – 11 May 2020
@nntaleb And this for the sooooooo misunderstood law of large numbers https://twitter.com/DavidSalazarVir/status/1253408590833963008?s=20 Permalink 11:25 AM – 11 May 2020
@nntaleb This is excellent. He is simulating from my book STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS. Advice to @DavidSalazarVir : increase n for large samples, to see the Mediocristan case go flat like a dinner table or the intellect of an economist. https://twitter.com/DavidSalazarVir/status/1254843961153187842 Permalink 11:15 AM – 11 May 2020
@DellAnnaLuca Some numbers to back what @nntaleb has been saying for months: the economy tanking is in large measure a bottom-up process. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1259435094764183552 Permalink 9:03 PM – 10 May 2020
@nntaleb There we go, an intelligent version of libertarianism! https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/1259561994547605505 Permalink 1:00 PM – 10 May 2020
@BuddyCA64525731 Wonderful @nntaleb venn diagram on the right way to formalize and teach probability and risk. @macroarb @zoeharcombe https://twitter.com/zoeharcombe/status/1259447505747619840 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/TJrUKCNTZF”> pic.twitter.com/TJrUKCNTZF Permalink 8:54 AM – 10 May 2020
@DrSamPappas “Inflammation is the most frequent affection and the one showing the most number of varieties ..“ Galen of Pergamon @_Tom_Pappas @amyriolo @nntaleb Ancient Mediterranean wisdom already knew about #CytokineStorm Permalink 8:36 AM – 10 May 2020
@nntaleb Seond hint. I guess we’re done. pic.twitter.com/2i4mwWp0AG Permalink 8:06 AM – 10 May 2020
@nntaleb If you want to drive a fool to insolvency, lend her or him some money. Permalink 7:44 AM – 10 May 2020
@MarcosCarreira Before affirming that children are “immune” and can be exposed to risky environments, remember that: (1) Many problems will not be diagnosed due to the avoidance of hospitals, doctors (2) Saying something never happens can be disproved by a single example (see attached) @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1255941572908244996 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/waXtJl6Igm”> pic.twitter.com/waXtJl6Igm Permalink 6:17 AM – 10 May 2020
@nntaleb Bottom up vs top down. The photo is BEFORE my weight loss. Very unfair. https://twitter.com/zoeharcombe/status/1259447505747619840 Permalink 5:20 AM – 10 May 2020
@nntaleb נותנה ואינו יודע למי נותנה, נוטלה ואינו יודע ממי נוטלה. נותנה ואינו יודע למי נותנה, לאפוקי מדמר עוקבא… https://twitter.com/ofer_rubin/status/1259255171986665473?s=20 Permalink 5:13 PM – 9 May 2020
@nntaleb Make your failings public; keep your virtues secret. Permalink 1:04 PM – 9 May 2020
@nntaleb Libertarianism reposes on the nonagression principle, which COMMANDS mask-wearing under the SILVER RULE. Permalink 8:32 AM – 9 May 2020
@nntaleb If you are a nonimbecile Libertarian, or localist, you want collective action to arise bottom up in a decentralized way. This is EXACTLY what is happening! Responses are largely local abt everywhere. #NonImbecileLibertarianism #NonPsychopathicLibertarianism #Localism https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1258931279317405696 Permalink 8:26 AM – 9 May 2020
@nntaleb I am in Atlanta where restrts have been ALLOWED to open. The ones I know are closed. Nice to blame local governments. It was bottom up. Clearly, most of these “libertarians” are not just geronticidal sociopaths but defective in reasoning & empirical awareness. Permalink 6:59 PM – 8 May 2020
@nntaleb Indeed, a faux debate https://twitter.com/Covid19Digest/status/1258936747699965953?s=20 Permalink 6:53 PM – 8 May 2020
@nntaleb Lockdowns (largely)followed individual behavior rather than the reverse. Except for teenagers who carry a tiny economic role. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1258897844771028993 Permalink 6:26 PM – 8 May 2020
@yaneerbaryam Why is the Batshit Crazy idea of Herd Immunity still with us? 1/4 Permalink 2:16 PM – 8 May 2020
@nntaleb The other problem is attending a lecture on Zoom tires you much more than one in the physical world. You need to focus with some intensity all the time, can’t get cues otherwise. Permalink 1:20 PM – 8 May 2020
@nntaleb Having been separated from my library & reading on an Ipad, it is w/yuuge relief (after 463 pages) to finally get the real thing! Digital is useful for some things, but one remembers much, much better what one touches, views in 3D, and smells. It’s like exiting a 2D prison. pic.twitter.com/sKxGxOJy2E Permalink 1:17 PM – 8 May 2020
@nntaleb Publishers are indeed confused by my approach. Never separate words from aesthetics. This format is Lindy https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1208317781634113536?s=20 https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1258832399409876993 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/T8KE4d5VeB”> pic.twitter.com/T8KE4d5VeB Permalink 12:02 PM – 8 May 2020
@nntaleb Hint pic.twitter.com/otSFzfIUPr Permalink 10:08 AM – 8 May 2020
@nntaleb You know when it starts. Never when it ends… https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/1258775700829601792 Permalink 8:10 AM – 8 May 2020
@nntaleb Something to start the weekend with. Courtesy Dan Sitaru. pic.twitter.com/PGLvK4TGTK Permalink 7:57 AM – 8 May 2020
@nntaleb “HEAVY BOX” : weighs 9 lbs. I wonder if I can add a volume without messing up the physical package. [PS –enjoy the Prosecco @ozwegian] https://twitter.com/ozwegian/status/1258473140084248577 Permalink 3:10 PM – 7 May 2020
@normonics Yaneer has been tireless in tackling this pandemic. This makes me sick to my stomach https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1258474980129546242 Permalink 12:20 PM – 7 May 2020
@nntaleb Never, never complain about your enemies. Only losers complain. Drive them to complain about you. Permalink 12:01 PM – 7 May 2020
@nntaleb Bi Masr byektbo bil Masré. Ma 3ndon 3e2dé! 7atta fi Wikipedia bil Masré! https://arz.wikipedia.org/wiki/ الصفحه_الرئيسيه https://twitter.com/Ghonim/status/1225534329679380481 Permalink 11:31 AM – 7 May 2020
@nntaleb Excellent question! Just as correlation/covariance do not properly measure informational distance, standard deviation/variance do not measure the degree of uncertainty. More effective is entropy and conditional entropy for downside. —- I ANSWER ALL LEGIT TECHNICAL QUESTIONS https://twitter.com/bitpharma/status/1258413098588934146 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/VtquYba4Vr”> pic.twitter.com/VtquYba4Vr Permalink 9:00 AM – 7 May 2020
@nntaleb South of Avignon is the Med France but Provencal is closer to Italian Permalink 7:21 AM – 7 May 2020
@nntaleb The French are Germanics who think they are Mediterraneans and speak a Latin language with a German accent. Permalink 7:16 AM – 7 May 2020
@nntaleb Solid statistical inference lies in destroying BS with a single but powerful data point. Disconfirmatory empiricism. https://twitter.com/joe_shipman/status/1258251049971875840?s=20 Permalink 3:17 AM – 7 May 2020
@nntaleb I get v. angry when I read crap by “Johny Evidence” Ioannidis who still doesn’t get multiplicative processes w/α<1 need to be cut in the egg. This is the city where I’ve resided ~2/3 of my life. So far 75% of the people dying are dying of COVID, not counting future morbidity. pic.twitter.com/ng5cxGEBlE Permalink 4:01 PM – 6 May 2020
@nntaleb Traduttore Traditore! Dumas in Cte de Montecristo: “condemned for 5 m to Italian cuisine, one of the WORST in the world”. While waiting for the mailed hard copy, was trying to read it online in Italian: “una delle piu MEDIOCRI cucine del mondo” #Cheating but Italian >> French Permalink 3:23 PM – 6 May 2020
@trishankkarthik This is why we need more people to get the #RWRI mindset @nntaleb @financequant U.S. military busy spending trillions on offense rather than than worrying about practical risks like this virus that will easily throw them off in the homeland Permalink 3:15 PM – 6 May 2020
@nntaleb Resist The Wuhan Lab & other theories Just as victims of paranoia can find a narrative that impeccably matches all facts, people collectively fall prey to these shared delusions. “Intelligent” people can be more vulnerable Remember the Iraq WMDs or IYIs on Trump #TheBlackSwan pic.twitter.com/OZ3ALN6AnV Permalink 1:27 PM – 6 May 2020
@nntaleb Mr Meng, It’s the naive hedging strategies that lead to underfunding. Not the effective ones. Just a quick reminder. (Mr Meng is Chief Investment Officer of CalPERS) https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/coronavirus-side-effect-calpers-drops-to-60-funded/ Permalink 1:19 PM – 6 May 2020
@nntaleb 1) I don’t write for magazines (except short comment every 5-7 years) 2) @Reason is penetrated by exMonsanto shills/corporate interests 3) Intellectual caliber is low, dominated by sub-naive empiricists 4) I have many more readers than @Reason Ideas here: https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica https://twitter.com/JustHereToShare/status/1258102534465413120 Permalink 12:13 PM – 6 May 2020
@viziandrei “Contrary to orthodox belief, success is not being on top of a hierarchy. Success is standing outside all hierarchies.” — @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/2NTpoCTMPO Permalink 10:58 AM – 6 May 2020
@nntaleb We need to figure out which “libertarians” are really localists without the right language, and get them on board. #localism https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1258042758780125184 Permalink 9:15 AM – 6 May 2020
@nntaleb So far (stopping because there is no rain) pic.twitter.com/E4Xev3ocBC Permalink 5:17 AM – 6 May 2020
@nntaleb (As usual please do not pollute the math threads with nonmath comments. I had to block a few people to clean up the thread. Thank you for your understanding.) Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 May 2020
@nntaleb In case it rains today pic.twitter.com/gom8RW9Qv7 Permalink 4:23 AM – 6 May 2020
@nntaleb Indeed, this is the essence of #localism! https://twitter.com/FitzroyMotor/status/1257968997041127424 Permalink 3:50 AM – 6 May 2020
@nntaleb I read Spencer’s stuff as I started learning about genetics. https://twitter.com/spwells/status/1257687089132343296 Permalink 4:17 PM – 5 May 2020
@nntaleb Details pic.twitter.com/ynv4GBZR8o Permalink 3:48 PM – 5 May 2020
@nntaleb 4) “Libertarians” are also incoherent: they deny stores the right to require masks & constrain their freedom yet ask for freedom… Nothing to do with libertarianism: rather a collection of marshmallowbrained psychopaths and misfits taking their hatred of humanity too far. Permalink 12:39 PM – 5 May 2020
@nntaleb Here @SrinivasR1729 pic.twitter.com/hez1PydBHF Permalink 12:20 PM – 5 May 2020
@nntaleb Other than pic.twitter.com/lzgr1mVQda Permalink 12:12 PM – 5 May 2020
@nntaleb Afternoon workout https://twitter.com/SrinivasR1729/status/1257667717986844672 Permalink 11:57 AM – 5 May 2020
@nntaleb I’ve been fooled by individuals. Never by ideas. #Libertarians #Psychologists Permalink 10:06 AM – 5 May 2020
@nntaleb So Dr Faust, MD & MS, plus some Harvard thingy, is proposing a FAUSTIAN bargain that he does not understand. Permalink 7:53 AM – 5 May 2020
@nntaleb It is the same first order pseudo-libertarianism that asked to remove airport security checks on grounds that there was no terrorists on planes anymore. Permalink 5:43 AM – 5 May 2020
@nntaleb This dangerous imbecile is attributing job losses to deaths, as if it were govnts (not the virus) who caused the losses , & as if measures did not reduce fatalities (cockpit locked door paradox in #TheBlackSwan). Aside from the odious approach to a “trade-off”. Shameful & stupid. https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1257379261016616960 Permalink 5:20 AM – 5 May 2020
@nntaleb 3) “LIBERTARIAN” is meaningless a designation if you live under silver rules and laws. Localism is the only way to make what is called LIBERTARIANISM stand on its feet. Permalink 4:27 AM – 5 May 2020
@Jaffer22915438 This is fantastic! In language that I can even understand. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1257625992627138561 Permalink 4:15 AM – 5 May 2020
@nntaleb 2) PRINCIPIA POLITICA shows the effects of scale/localism. Systemic harm has no tort laws (you can’t sue a virus) so you MUST use the Precautionary Principle. Many libertarians are just cranks & sociopaths. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica Permalink 4:04 AM – 5 May 2020
@nntaleb Being flooded by first-order (scale-blind) “libertarians” (of the no masks, “freedom” to infect others variety), arguing that reactions to the virus (but not the virus) will cause hunger & famine. Since when have these selfish sociopathic “libertarians” been concerned w/famine? Permalink 3:53 AM – 5 May 2020
@Alvarus_lat Ne tituli legi possint apud Zoom https://twitter.com/benjcartlidge/status/1257278773046718464 Permalink 5:02 AM – 4 May 2020
@bessbell Send this thread to any idiot fucker who posts an Instagram at the beach or a crowded park. Tell them my dad says see you later. Permalink 3:25 PM – 3 May 2020
@nntaleb Why you don’t manage tails using an “average” or a “forecast” but how much uncertainty there is in the system. My derivations pic.twitter.com/iDHhelODw1 Permalink 2:46 PM – 3 May 2020
@nntaleb My point summarized by an engineer, someone in the real world. https://twitter.com/perepescador/status/1249137866602696704?s=20 Permalink 2:38 PM – 3 May 2020
@nntaleb The thrill of writing when you do it ON YOUR OWN TERMS. Stop the minute it requires the smallest effort. Painters are said to enjoy painting, writers “having written”. Painters are free & ~all writers write on someone else’s terms. I don’t write reports, emails >240 ch, etc. https://twitter.com/kazivana/status/1257035761247031299 Permalink 1:56 PM – 3 May 2020
@nntaleb Here is a simple detail https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1248980856531812354?s=20 Permalink 9:03 AM – 3 May 2020
@nntaleb There is ZERO rigor with Ioannidis. ZERO probabilistic reasoning & risk management rigor. He doesn’t even known what an exponential means. ZERO. https://www.wired.com/story/prophet-of-scientific-rigor-and-a-covid-contrarian/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=wired&utm_social-type=earned via @wired Permalink 8:34 AM – 3 May 2020
@nntaleb Like the spaghetti-minded Phil-the-rat @Ptetlock, there are still some pple around who are not getting skin in the game. To repeat: it is not just an incentive-disincentive problem but a FILTER –a filtering mechanism that helps remove harmful idiots. https://twitter.com/SaintSal/status/1256919393591857152 Permalink 5:18 AM – 3 May 2020
@nntaleb Excellent idea. You want freedom to infect others; now pay for it. None of the people in parks enjoying their “freedom” should have any priority over and displace other sick people in hospitals. https://twitter.com/uuilly/status/1256800553062916096 Permalink 4:59 AM – 3 May 2020
@nntaleb 3) The pisteuo pbm is the reason first-order atheists a la Dawkins & religious people talk past one another: simply religious beliefs never claimed to be epistemic that is, belief in the scientific sense. You need to remove verbalism & labels to understand what something means. Permalink 4:44 AM – 3 May 2020
@nntaleb 2/ In Semitic lang., “Amen” means “trust”, not epistemic belief, so professions of faith state trust. The Syriac credo is “mhayminan 7ad aloho” = “WE TRUST only one god”. (not “I” since; is no Nicene creed for non Greek-Orthodox/Cath) Doxa in Christian Aramaic/Syriac is tshba7. pic.twitter.com/VLTM6j7Fbo Permalink 4:39 AM – 3 May 2020
@nntaleb This is the “pisteuo” Πιστεύο pblm. Credere does not mean epistemic belief, but trust, which I defined as “pisteic”, a kind of doxastic committment . From the Nicene credo: “Πιστεύομεν εἰς ἕνα Θεὸν” In Engligh, “belief” ~beloved. Note: δόξα = belief, gift, & glorification. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1256900841954578442 Permalink 4:07 AM – 3 May 2020
@morethanmySLE WATCH: Frontline health care workers in North Carolina stand-down protesters. This is AMAZING. BRAVE. And SAD that as hard as they have worked to SAVE lives, they have to CONVINCE people to stay home to protect these protesters from spreading #COVID__19 pic.twitter.com/RuzaOpRF9L Permalink 9:11 PM – 2 May 2020
@nntaleb Used the same chalk for this and weightlifting (the bar is next to the board). Punishment for distraction while lifting: injury. Mild, but serious punishment. pic.twitter.com/jwIA5hJeMC Permalink 9:32 AM – 2 May 2020
@ektrit Risk vs Ruin are two different things. From Skin in the game by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/hXRApNmnY1 Permalink 6:29 AM – 2 May 2020
@ektrit Risks involving tail risk, meaning risk which can cause collapse, must be avoided at any cost. From Skin in the game by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HECvdVsEPa Permalink 6:15 AM – 2 May 2020
@nntaleb MATH DU JOUR Stumbled upon an inequality but can’t prove it formally yet. Can’t find it in the literature. I’ts a generalization of x y/(x+y)^2<= 1/4 (Non math commentators & trolls will be blocked) pic.twitter.com/noka1PHrvc Permalink 5:47 PM – 1 May 2020
@nntaleb 2/ It is like an inverse problem vs problem. If you reverse engineer a dish based on ingredients you have at home, rather than decide on a given dish, for which the restaurant must carry at all times ALL ingredients (with no leeway), the mechanism is vastly more efficient. Permalink 5:58 AM – 1 May 2020
@nntaleb Deux poids, deux mesures? https://twitter.com/raoult_didier/status/1255824103099039745 Permalink 5:51 AM – 1 May 2020
@nntaleb QUESTION Given that 1) people stopped going to restaurants, 2) they kept eating, & 3) farmers are dumping produce, dairy, meat owing to a surplus nobody wants, could it be that restaurants, (because of their need to maintain variety & excess quantities) waste a looot of food? Permalink 5:39 AM – 1 May 2020
@JensWilhelm2 @nntaleb this is the best explanation of your 2 people-2 filters theory up to now! https://twitter.com/PHLPublicHealth/status/1255941752164401153 Permalink 12:20 AM – 1 May 2020
@nntaleb As expected, the Texas sharpshooting style ex post change of initial target. Now let’s look at the implications. https://twitter.com/raoult_didier/status/1255835517511483394 Permalink 6:49 PM – 30 Apr 2020
@nntaleb 2/2 Weightlifting Discussion du jour: Clean-Press Part 2: which one is safer/easier for heavy weights, + Power clean + Muscle clean PS- Thanks Maestro Grant @GrantSSC for answers to 1). Permalink 2:23 PM – 30 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Weightlifting Discussion du jour: Clean-Press If *x* is the weight that you can press from a rack for 5 reps, how many reps should you be able to do if you clean the bar first, for the exact same weight *x*. 5? 3? 2? cc:@GrantSSC Permalink 1:36 PM – 30 Apr 2020
@nntaleb We don’t see counts of morbidities from Covid. Reports seem focused on deaths. We need more rigorous accounts/estimates of damage to lungs, brains, heart, repro system,etc., ACROSS age groups. We have no clear idea if “permanent” but can see the risks from earliest infections. Permalink 12:26 PM – 30 Apr 2020
@nntaleb The problem in the US is that proportion of overweight (or, to be polite, “exceedingly well fed”) & metabolically challenged pple; the chief vulnerability for Covid. That makes any comparison or mortality rates between the US and Europe unrigorous. Permalink 7:30 AM – 30 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Bingo! You never congratulate anyone for winning at the Russian roulette. https://twitter.com/alexandrionascu/status/1255863340800319493?s=20 Permalink 7:22 AM – 30 Apr 2020
@nntaleb DYNAMIC vs STATIC While the wisdom of a tail-risk decision under asymmetries is not to be decided after, comparative numbers for Sweden are much worse. Sweden’s numbers are growing at ~50-150 a day, Norway’s 1-5. So expect the ratios to soon be 4000-6000 vs 220-250 for Norway. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1255825648448348161 Permalink 6:58 AM – 30 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Looks like this is coming out in a genetics journal (as part of a larger study). Finally introduced rigor in the measurement of Genetic distances. Correlation/Covariance do not reflect distances, ENTROPY does. https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7NyMSSC727″> pic.twitter.com/7NyMSSC727 Permalink 6:43 PM – 29 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Tweets like that made me discover @justinamash. He seems to be a threat. Much more on that, later. https://twitter.com/PamKeithFL/status/1255619460288962560 Permalink 6:37 PM – 29 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Interesting. Alberta Investment Management Corp blew up EXACTLY in the way described in Chapter 3, “better convex than right”. https://twitter.com/premiamgmt/status/1255572797293621249 Permalink 12:47 PM – 29 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Actually, started already. pic.twitter.com/BRrfkdKDGv Permalink 10:53 AM – 29 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Free America now… from psychopaths! pic.twitter.com/jm9TKY4HTo Permalink 6:14 AM – 29 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Underestimation of deaths from COVID. This is an interesting demonstration of the difference between thin/fat tails. NonCovid deaths follow a thin-tailed distribution w/Chernoff bounds & v. low variance. So it is v easy to extract the near exact difference. #StatMethodology pic.twitter.com/PqXZjtb1OR Permalink 4:04 AM – 29 Apr 2020
@mikeandallie 1/2 I’ve been meaning to get to this paper for a few days but only found the time tonight. As usual Nassim gets to the point right away and the result presented in the introduction is fascinating – see paper below for full details and the next tweet for the result in the intro. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1253358169214107648 Permalink 4:08 PM – 28 Apr 2020
@normonics fucking idiot. https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1255193968809250823 Permalink 2:10 PM – 28 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Conditions for PHASE 1 reopening: + Mandatory masks in public + Tests + No superspreaders: subways, urologists conferences, etc. + Monitoring of passengers + Economists & psychologists stay locked-up at in permanent quarantine. Basically what we should have done in late January. Permalink 1:00 PM – 28 Apr 2020
@dottorpax Un mio lavoro con @nntaleb sul rischio di coda delle pandemie uscirà nei prossimi giorni su Nature Physics. Sarà accessibile a tutti, e posterò presto il link qui sotto. Il messaggio? Meglio non scherzare con certe cose, evitando i modellini giocattolo che si vedono in giro. Permalink 11:39 AM – 28 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Removal of skin in the game. https://twitter.com/WallStCynic/status/1255126652050378761 Permalink 10:37 AM – 28 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Tarde velle nolenlis est, Governor Cuomo. Permalink 9:42 AM – 28 Apr 2020
@nntaleb “Wishes”. Andrew Cuomo “whishes he blew the bugle on the virus in January. cc: @normonics @yaneerbaryam pic.twitter.com/VOaVVZadG3 Permalink 8:49 AM – 28 Apr 2020
@stevesong Need to apply @nntaleb’s rule. Any corporation receiving a bailout should have executive remuneration adjusted to match that of a senior gov’t bureaucrat. https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1255026523855376386 Permalink 5:47 AM – 28 Apr 2020
@nntaleb This is the first step in the dismantlement of citation rings. https://twitter.com/gfresh84173971/status/1255015591611686914?s=20 Permalink 5:25 AM – 28 Apr 2020
@renegruner1 When you haven`t heard of NNT. @nntaleb #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/bWZ9xmkkrV Permalink 5:04 AM – 28 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Universities: If this continues, expect tenured faculty to get serious pay cuts & to finally have to justify their existence & the USEFULNESS of their so-called “research”. Permalink 5:16 PM – 27 Apr 2020
@nntaleb There is this illusion that the economy is harmed by the reaction to the virus rather than by the virus. In fact, if anything, it is harmed by the lack of EARLY reaction to the virus. Permalink 8:54 AM – 27 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Stop the bullshit. Sweden did HORRIBLE compared to Norway Denmark Finland. Japan is an easily closed Island. Use comparable levels of connectedness. Permalink 8:28 AM – 27 Apr 2020
@nntaleb BS spotting du jour. Throughout history, we’ve ben quarantining “healthy” and “unhealthy” people. For the very reason that we only know ex post whether they are healthy or not. https://twitter.com/merlynwood/status/1254469140061892608 Permalink 8:12 AM – 27 Apr 2020
@nntaleb This was (before my weight loss) a conversation with @Confusezeus at the Fletcher School of Diplomacy in 2015. @MilenaRodban who was in the audience was told that the faculty (political science empty suits) complained that “it was not academic”. https://twitter.com/MasaSkiba/status/1249445673117900800 Permalink 6:28 PM – 26 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Thread on errors in growth of pandemics https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1254132648185921537?s=20 Permalink 6:17 PM – 26 Apr 2020
@nntaleb A reasoning mistake by Johnny Evidence https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1248980856531812354 Permalink 6:15 PM – 26 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Never tell people something if they know if already and they know that you know that they know it. Permalink 10:26 AM – 26 Apr 2020
@MasaSkiba Some things never change. pic.twitter.com/AwIpZz7kq6 Permalink 8:33 AM – 26 Apr 2020
@nntaleb An interesting twist: until 1860, my ancestors specialized in shipping merchandise between the Ottoman Levant and Marseilles. Permalink 8:20 AM – 26 Apr 2020
@nntaleb How did the #Lindy crowd miss this? https://twitter.com/StearnsLab/status/1254170977103044608 Permalink 8:15 AM – 26 Apr 2020
@nntaleb “I love models,” he adds. “I do a lot of mathematical modeling myself.” No you don’t, “Johny evidence” Ioannidis. Science” is not about asymmetry in decisions: we didn’t wait for scientific evidence to know not to jump from a cliff. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-bearer-of-good-coronavirus-news-11587746176 via @WSJ Permalink 5:40 PM – 25 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Of course psychologists and pseudoempiricists are the first to promote danger. They were the ones who said Jan 26 that worrying about the virus was paranoia, cost us trillions so far. They don’t get multiplicative risk. Here is Phil the rat @PTetlock https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1254182701864714241?s=20 Permalink 4:02 PM – 25 Apr 2020
@nntaleb These imbeciles really want to subject us to another virus. Why is why genetic modification of things that MULTIPLY fall under the (nonnaive) precautionary principle. Recall Mao’s policy to eliminate sparrows caused 50 mil to die of famine. #UnintendedConsequences https://twitter.com/voxdotcom/status/1254160786148200459 Permalink 3:18 PM – 25 Apr 2020
@nntaleb And the converse: if X is Pareto then r is exponential (\alpha). cc:@DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/6DR5MRbnik Permalink 3:14 PM – 25 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Using a double exponential (Laplace) we get a power law to the right (naturally not the the left) pic.twitter.com/fLi6UbeowS Permalink 3:06 PM – 25 Apr 2020
@nntaleb Note you can use a double exponential (Laplace) Permalink 2:42 PM – 25 Apr 2020