By this point, Taleb has come to view all three works as composing a unified project, which he calls Incerto, about “decision making under uncertainty.” The central idea of Antifragile is that risk, volatility, or turbulence is in many cases not to be feared and avoided, but desired and sought. Taleb claims to have identified a new concept: Whereas fragile things are harmed by shocks, and robust things are resilient or unharmed, what is antifragile actually benefits from shocks. A related concept and characteristic Talebism: What is “Lindy” is likely to survive a long time because it has already survived a long time—named after a Manhattan restaurant where actors observed the phenomenon in Broadway runs.
@nntaleb BS Busting Showing how ~50 years of psychologists/decisiontheoristas claims that people “irrationally” “overestimate tails” are unrigorous; how being a “good forecaster” means nothing,etc. Some (e.g. Phil the rat @PTetlock) won’t like it Full version at https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/STDMM5E1fT”> pic.twitter.com/STDMM5E1fT Permalink 6:25 AM – 19 Dec 2019
@TalebWisdom “Mediocre minds are outraged by small insults but passive, subdued, and silent in front of very large ones. ” – From Bed of Procrustes. Permalink 4:31 AM – 19 Dec 2019
@mikeandallie (1/2) I had a bit of a lucky start to my day today seeing this thread. Nassim’s solution – though a solution in a tweet! – is a terrific lesson for calculus students as it is a fantastic use of both the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus and also infinite series. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1207621312006574081 Permalink 3:27 AM – 19 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Modern dialects called “Arabic” do not descend from “Classical Arabic”, but both they and Fus7a share a common parent; Fus7a appears to be larely manufactured by a bunch of scholars. It is like mistaking your cousin for your grandfather. https://twitter.com/PhDniX/status/1207431607369502721 Permalink 3:01 PM – 18 Dec 2019
@marco_m_alves Localism is not “peace on earth” as it creates much more “inconvenient’ day to day (corruption is more visible, disputes are direct, etc). But it’s the trade-off for avoiding system-wide collapse. Permalink 11:17 PM – 17 Dec 2019
@nntaleb My former student is correct to bring me into line. Propagandists are unconditional in their support, never nuanced, even with the most eggregious actions. And thet are eventually caught. Like now. https://twitter.com/Mo_Hrmz/status/1206972693737857024 Permalink 8:45 AM – 17 Dec 2019
@nntaleb SPECULATIVE EAST-MED PHILOLOGY “Spice”, μπαχαρικό (Bahariko) in Greek, بهارات (Bharat) in Levantine (not so much in Classical Ar), and baharat in Turkish originate from the old name for India: Bharat. Simply, the Med had no spices, only herbs. Permalink 8:37 AM – 17 Dec 2019
@nntaleb How to rescale distances on PCA maps for genetics. @WolframResearch Mathematica Code with verification pic.twitter.com/cVfRKS0Y9YPermalink 3:46 AM – 17 Dec 2019
@CCavafy “But most incomparable / of all, Antioch boasts that she’s a city / that’s been Greek since Ancient times” – C.P. Cavafy, “Greek Since Ancient Times”, translated by @DAMendelsohnNYC #poetry #cavafy #Greece pic.twitter.com/8kuwmOY8wwPermalink 5:05 AM – 16 Dec 2019
@TalebWisdom “Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 5:04 AM – 16 Dec 2019
@TalebWisdom “The best researcher is the one who hates academia, the best politician the one who hates politics, best bureaucrat one who hates bureaucracy.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #bureaucracy Permalink 8:50 AM – 15 Dec 2019
@nntaleb These pseudo-analysts don’t get it. The majority of French & British voters had a yuuuugely favorable opinion about De Gaulle & Churchill respectively but still voted them out of office right after the war ended. https://twitter.com/mashabani/status/1203316176740327427 Permalink 4:20 AM – 15 Dec 2019
@Nvdwaa Rereading antifragile, my 1st encounter with @nntaleb after about 4years. Discovering depth I missed/ didn’t appreciate 1st time around. Amazing, life-changing stuff. pic.twitter.com/BVzeRvhXSCPermalink 9:07 AM – 14 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Bad way to visualize information, in the absence of scaling/size. If Rome/Papal States, Istanbul, Beirut were countries, They too… The web teaches people to become fools a la social scientists. https://twitter.com/arcgreek/status/1205500038706802691 Permalink 5:01 AM – 14 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Decorators design to impress other decorators. In the MEA lounge, the electric plugs are out of reach, low on the ground, with the cover opening upwards ; impossible to plug the charger unless you lie on the floor. @skyteam please tell these idiots. #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/mBlfV1TyZoPermalink 2:57 AM – 14 Dec 2019
@DavidGibbons “Every plane crash makes the next one less likely, every bank crash makes the next one more likely.” From Antifragile. Maybe my favorite @nntaleb quote – certainly a most important insight. We have built antifragile things but banking is not one of them. Permalink 1:12 AM – 14 Dec 2019
@ETNOWlive Tell us what is the #Nifty return this decade in the comments section and get a chance to win a signed copy of the latest books by @MarkMobiusReal, @SadhguruJV, and @nntaleb. #IndiaEconomicConclave #IEC #quiz #IEC2019 pic.twitter.com/AOKkXnSqpnPermalink 12:29 AM – 12 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Liars announce that they are saying the “truth”, without anyone asking them; shills claim they are promoting it. (Remember that “Pravda”, the Soviet organ, meant “truth”) pic.twitter.com/irpjNgra7gPermalink 2:27 PM – 11 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Which explains why there cannot be such a thing as a global village: you build stronger bonds by meeting one person 5 times than by meeting 5 persons once. pic.twitter.com/7zO4MQwyUlPermalink 1:06 PM – 11 Dec 2019
@nntaleb 2) Do you live in a village? Simple trick: how many familiar faces do you encounter daily in your surroundings? Permalink 12:14 PM – 11 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Turns out that what I called the “Karamata point” and the “Karamata Constant”, while obvious, didn’t have a name. Was told Kara-mata was “black eyed” in Ottoman Greek (Kara black in Turkish, Matis eyes in Turko-Greek) pic.twitter.com/Y0s26R7It0Permalink 5:23 PM – 10 Dec 2019
@LaurentMartinez Sometimes you’re so obnoxious that I’m really considering muting you. But you so don’t give a f**** and are so uncompromising with (mostly) insufferable a-holes, that I have to admit it makes you a rare and valuable occurrence in this world. Permalink 1:47 AM – 10 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Trying to define RIGOROUSLY what is and what is not Racism in PRINCIPIA, away from the verbalistic. Some surprising results. For comments pic.twitter.com/qTNU63hPW5Permalink 12:12 PM – 9 Dec 2019
@nntaleb The saying “lniqua numquam regna perpetuo manent” gives me hope. #Lindy #LebanonProtests #IraqiProtests, etc. Permalink 11:33 AM – 9 Dec 2019
@nntaleb TENURE IS A TRAP After 30 y tenure in a pseudoscience w/citation ring (socialscience),pple can’t do anything in the real world Unskilled Labor! If Universities can’t take away your tenure, they can make your life miserable,as w/bigot @erasmuse. Like the brother in #Antifragile https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1198329665078857729 Permalink 3:34 AM – 9 Dec 2019
@TalebWisdom “There is no more unmistakable sign of failure than that of a middle-aged man boasting of his successes in college.” – @nntaleb Permalink 7:24 PM – 8 Dec 2019
@nntaleb More confusion: Mathematica has two techniques. Dot product for normalized vectors is same as covariance (hence 3 and 1 are same). Which method is used? pic.twitter.com/R9ZulSWR8CPermalink 1:37 PM – 8 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Note that I blocked people who polluted the thread Permalink 9:58 AM – 8 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Almost. The statistical version of the asymmetry: to confirm safety (trader didn’t blowup), n =1000 could be insufficient, to disconfirm safety, n=1 (trader blewup) is sufficient. My technical version of the asymmetry is by examining the Law of Large Numbers under fat tails. https://twitter.com/sunnyrekhi/status/1203505476958220290 Permalink 4:11 AM – 8 Dec 2019
@JonathanShedler This is why “evidence based therapy” research always seems to involve treatments most people don’t want and most practitioners don’t practice. Research designed to impress journal reviewers and grant reviewers, not provide what patients need. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1203128659806171138 Permalink 3:22 PM – 7 Dec 2019
@nntaleb J’ACCUSE Depositors in #LEBANON being stiffed! 1-Payment to Eurobond holders, NOT to depositors, & Not enough $$ for fuel imports 2-Depositors should OWN the banks since default! 3- #RiadPonzi is in denial, must be replaced/supervised Must suspend CEDRE! @Jad_Ghosn @EHSANI22 Permalink 7:51 AM – 7 Dec 2019
@nntaleb The eugenics crowd has been after since the when I showed the IQ thingy to be a fraud. You can tell at the reactions of a bunch of people. https://link.medium.com/ehxNGI2Zc2 Permalink 2:15 PM – 6 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Thread on Ergodicity & @ole_b_peters work 1) If you optimize on multiperiod payoffs you avoid an absorbing state(0), because multiplicative. ANY such optimization will avoid absorption, not just LOG 2) Growth is a nice summary parameter. 3) Avoiding absorption does same. Permalink 6:48 AM – 6 Dec 2019
@nntaleb [For those who don’t get it: the point is that some friends are worse than enemies] Permalink 4:54 AM – 6 Dec 2019
@nntaleb DISCUSSION Friends, the M5 competition (@spyrosmakrid ) is about inventory prediction using ML or other. I suggested predicting maxima & minima on top of the usual. While extrema are useful in trading (“never cross a river that’s on ave 4f deep”), are they with inventories? Permalink 4:37 AM – 6 Dec 2019
@bmiloy Attending one of these exposes and clears a lot of BS from your thinking. You think you understood the Incerto, maybe even read it a few times, and then you attend and discover that you were missing something essential. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1202700539886260246 Permalink 4:33 PM – 5 Dec 2019
@nntaleb What you see and what you don’t see: The hidden moments for a probability distribution. The Lucretius problem in #TheBlackSwan. (Turns out explicit result below is new.) Inspired by a mistake made by that idiot @WGoetzmann (who sees #TheBlackSwan as an “airport book”) . pic.twitter.com/IRU9nlgkNaPermalink 3:03 PM – 5 Dec 2019
@aleksndr_r “A book review can be far more descriptive of the reviewer than the book itself.” —@nntaleb That you can learn as much about the source of information as its object is one of the most helpful principles I’ve come across recently. Permalink 9:39 AM – 5 Dec 2019
@CIELivestock1 Raffael Zanoli @UnivPoliMarche tells @iSAGE_H2020 #sheep industry mtg in #Wetherby of @nntaleb concept of #antifragility. Beyond #resilience, resulting from challenges in the environment making you more #robust to future challenges. Applies in #farming AND #marketing! pic.twitter.com/HuSPXRRO3vPermalink 9:25 AM – 5 Dec 2019
@nntaleb #RiadPonzi has reigned over 7 prime ministers, 4 presidents, a dozen finance ministers. If a single person is the perpetrator, it is him. He is the cancer. PS Riad, your “friends”’s smear campaign against me is equivalent to draining the Mediterranean with a teaspoon. https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1202594727444520966 Permalink 6:57 AM – 5 Dec 2019
@nntaleb When you encounter Pinker style careerism, remember the following. A book (or a work of scholarship) is something that is read 25 years after publication. What happens in the 25 years doesn’t count. The rest is a combination of noise, promotion, hype & resumé building. #Lindy Permalink 4:18 AM – 5 Dec 2019
@spyrosmakrid At the Institute For the Future (IFF), University of Nicosia we have founded the MOFC (The Makridakis Open Forecasting Center). Its purpose to Advance the Theory and Practice of Forecasting through competitions, conferences, publications and forecasting courses. @polemitis pic.twitter.com/zBGMuGK8D2Permalink 1:59 AM – 5 Dec 2019
@BDufournet My wife and I had the same idea for Christmas for each other… @nntaleb’s masterpiece in the deluxe edition! Received today. A very nice present. pic.twitter.com/44yvVZFWcUPermalink 2:53 PM – 4 Dec 2019
@nntaleb 1) The judgment of the free is the only one that counts. The rest has some element of propaganda. 2) Very, very few people are free. 3) In general, the more prominent the person, the less free. The janitor is freer than the politician/CEO. 4) Purity requires freedom. Permalink 6:36 AM – 4 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Aside from BS Vendor extraordinaire @saPinker misrepresenting his own claims (see other posts), @DrCirillo & I have shown that interarrival times betw. large wars >100 y hence 1) his claim on post WW2 is statistical noise 2) he doesn’t get what statistical noise means #BSVendor https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201603375365836804 Permalink 5:12 AM – 4 Dec 2019
@TalebWisdom “Anyone who likes meetings should be banned from attending meetings.” – @nntaleb Permalink 12:23 AM – 4 Dec 2019
@nntaleb What drinking with @EmanuelDerman looks like. And that’s before the drift into Spinoza. #OnlyinNewYork pic.twitter.com/bvLLy9P5fhPermalink 4:18 PM – 3 Dec 2019
@nntaleb FAT TONYISM More effective & less risky to improve food distribution than produce GMOs/GoldenRice (food costs=60-94% distrib/decay), but not to *scientism*merchants It costs millions to make train rides more pleasant, billions to make trains just a bit faster, but not to… Permalink 6:22 AM – 3 Dec 2019
@sean_a_mcclure The general public gets swept up in the labeling of others as “anti-science” without understanding how science actually works. The willing and able are now stepping forward to call BS and set the record straight. I can’t think of a better service to society. #science https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1201458485961117698 Permalink 10:12 AM – 2 Dec 2019
@nntaleb The author of the article on golden rice used by @sapinker was running a bank that blew up spectacularly; asking him for advice on tail risk is like putting a drunk driver (while drunk) to monitor road safety. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1201504177286983685?s=20 Permalink 6:48 AM – 2 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Sorry, error: I carelessly mistook @mona_harb_ (who tried -and failed— to dump on me) for @mona_fawaz. Permalink 4:56 AM – 2 Dec 2019
@normonics I didbn’t even catch that this is via @quillette. of course. They know the best genes for humans to have AND know the best genes for plants to have eugenics quillette. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201345723981160448 Permalink 4:37 AM – 2 Dec 2019
@normonics Same language as last time, copied off a PR sheet I guess Soulless @sapinker Steven Pinker again smears those scientific doubt and reasonable concern for risk, uses the image of dying children to push his agenda https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201345723981160448 Permalink 4:29 AM – 2 Dec 2019
@nntaleb #Localism implies opposition to US interventionism in world affairs (Syrian “rebels”, Saudi Barbaria-Yemen, etc.) It does not mean supporting interventionism by OTHER regimes. Most shills & low-intellect propagandists promote false dichotomies:”if not green, it must be pink”. Permalink 4:22 AM – 2 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Although activist @mona_fawaz has tried to dump on me (& got ran over),I MUST fight for her against the smear campaign by fascist propagandists that she’s a “foreign agent” #localists want to run their own lives, not be trapped into US-Iran-Israel-SA globalism #Skininthegame Permalink 3:59 AM – 2 Dec 2019
@nntaleb If you ask what pple in #Lebanon want: basic amenities, jobs, education, clean water, transportation, power, etc. #Localism. Not geopolitics US-Iran-Israel-SaudiArabia. Fascists Khalek et al are shilling ag a technocratic government on grounds that it won’t globalize. Permalink 3:26 AM – 2 Dec 2019
@yaneerbaryam The idea that Golden Rice is a useful or necessary solution to nutrition problems does not recognize many alternatives and does not include an understanding of risk. This is a terribly misguided and unscientific frame of reference. @nntaleb https://necsi.edu/precautionary-principle Permalink 7:50 PM – 1 Dec 2019
@nntaleb @JadChaaban is also a target of the smear campaign. I can hire someone to identify the source. After the Monsanto episode we got to know exactly how these are done. Also easy to sue people involved in the story in NY or LDN if they cover up for losses. https://twitter.com/JadChaaban/status/1200863656843661313?s=20 Permalink 6:55 AM – 1 Dec 2019
@digvijoy_c Someone wrote: “Dear Mr Taleb, I like your work but I feel compelled to give you a piece of advice. An intellectual like you would greatly gain in influence if he avoided using foul language.” Answer: “Fuck off.” From @nntaleb facebook page. Holiday season gold from Nassim. Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Also there are mechanisms to sue Global Finance magazine for giving awards to #RiadPonzi, give naive investors & savers a false feeling of security. Also we need @petelx60 to help us investigate how @LebAmUniv gave him an award (before his days). Permalink 5:50 AM – 1 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Signs both #RiadPonzi & Bankers Assoc. hired 2 PR firms to whitewash their image/smear critics including @dan_azz, @Nasser_Saidi. Not successful in the West (nobody is stupid) but # circulating videos in Lebanon. Some shills: @jassemajaka cc:@Jad_Ghosn #lebanonprotest Permalink 5:18 AM – 1 Dec 2019
@nntaleb At the “meeting”, #RiadPonzi exhibited a lack of financial proficiency. He said “We issued CDs at 6%, they are now at 20%, so we have profits.” Imagine a CEO saying: we issued bonds/stocks, their value collapsed, we make yuuge profits if we bought them back 50% lower! Permalink 4:57 AM – 1 Dec 2019
@nntaleb RETROSPECTIVE BIGOTEERING 1) no law is retrospective 2) you cannot blame people of a violation of a moral rule (or law) if they could not be possibly aware of such a rule, if such rule came AFTER their actions. This is similar to the retrospective distortion in #TheBlackSwan. Permalink 4:35 AM – 1 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Scale analysis is not mine, elaborated by many many scientists. My contribution is the link between nonlinearity of response, scale, stability and, mostly, the probabilistic implications. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1201115448529563648 Permalink 4:31 AM – 1 Dec 2019
@TalebWisdom “Libertarianism is about replacing authority with laws (legal systems, courts). Hard sciences (math, physics) obey laws, bullshit disciplines (psychology, history, sociology) obey authority. In the absence of #skininthegame, authority evolves to BS. In anything.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:08 PM – 30 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Most people scientists, academics, journalists & other BS vendorss write, talk about, & make claims about what they know. My specialty (Incerto & Technical Incerto) is to show what we don’t know. I stand current approaches to knowledge on their head. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1200798073884233728 Permalink 1:09 PM – 30 Nov 2019
@nntaleb What you see and what you don’t see:The hidden moments for a probability distribution. What we called shadow mean in paper with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/rnRBU9YwKnPermalink 7:25 AM – 30 Nov 2019
@nntaleb By depositors I mean small depositors who put their life savings in the hands of #RiadPonzi Permalink 12:37 PM – 29 Nov 2019
@idrissaberkane Il y a des gens qui sont prêts à se créer six comptes pour troller @nntaleb mais vraiment twitter est devenu complètement fou pic.twitter.com/Bd6R3KvnKEPermalink 8:27 AM – 29 Nov 2019
@nntaleb This is the classical question: “Where are the Customer’s Yachts?” Permalink 6:17 AM – 29 Nov 2019
@nntaleb A meeting in the Presidential Palace includes a representation of the banking sector. Where are the representatives of depositors? Where? Where? #LebanonProtests @Jad_Ghosn @dan_azzi pic.twitter.com/M3MvlXCGRTPermalink 6:05 AM – 29 Nov 2019
@vtchakarova I use the occasion of #HappyThanksgiving to extent my special gratitude and big thanks to @nntaleb for giving me the unique chance to be part of his amazing #RWRI family this year and to grow immensely as a human and as a spirit! #SITG Permalink 10:39 AM – 28 Nov 2019
@nntaleb I solved the quandary: I drink only American wine for Thanksgiving. Yet I want something Lebanese. Compromise: American wine made by Diaspora Lebanese. pic.twitter.com/7OPxpti5sVPermalink 7:59 AM – 28 Nov 2019
@B4DGETT This time of year, reminded of @nntaleb’s illustrative Thanksgiving turkey problem. pic.twitter.com/EZKxD1AA0fPermalink 11:36 AM – 27 Nov 2019
@georges_ebel “never cross a river if it is on average 4 feet deep” illustrated @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/hQRQqoOooyPermalink 7:59 AM – 27 Nov 2019
@nntaleb LEBANESE DIASPORA Buy Lebanese products. They need your dollars. Find a store near you. pic.twitter.com/5z6QnBtbS7Permalink 6:15 AM – 27 Nov 2019
@prakashperuvamb He is a role model precisely because of that . Speaks his mind, doesn’t mince word or tolerate crap, and what he says almost always makes abundant sense … Not ur politically correct ninny nanny type @nntaleb Permalink 5:27 AM – 27 Nov 2019
@dzviovich Wealth Gap is an emergent property of complex systems where agents interact. If system is not hijacked by rent seekers social mobility will follow as market preferences evolve. A very simple economy model will show these properties in action https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/1810873 Permalink 2:15 PM – 26 Nov 2019
@TalebWisdom “A very useful heuristic, a potent filter: When someone criticizes you, train to immediately ask yourself: “Would I rather be him/her, or I’d rather be me?” before taking the remark at face value. It works wonders. #SkinintheGame” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 10:21 AM – 26 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Fucking coward: I want to see you try to insult other religions as you did with Christianity & people holding Christian beliefs. Coward and phony! Permalink 8:36 AM – 26 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Attributing the #Iranprotests to fuel prices is similar to attributing the #LebaneseProtests to a tax on WhatsApp. #Verbalism pic.twitter.com/vskpcNAYOSPermalink 8:24 AM – 26 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Probability Discovery Du Jour: the invisible tail for a power law distribution doesn’t depent on its parametrization. A closed form derivation of thee “invisible tail”. pic.twitter.com/u1OlFLP75mPermalink 5:30 AM – 26 Nov 2019
@af_rd_ @BrankoMilan citing the Antifragile work by @nntaleb. Didn’t need more incentives. But it happens to be an interesting read indeed – ‘Antifragile states and global cities’ http://bit.ly/2OJz3zX @ips_journal Permalink 3:06 AM – 26 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Hezb now experiencing peacetime dilemmas: 1) cannot side with the protests without upsetting Iran 2) cannot use missiles against its own citizens, so militiary power is useless 3) cannot control hooligans harassing demonstrators 4) cannot afford to lose Shiite/Christian support https://twitter.com/hmalla72/status/1199023240380895234 Permalink 12:36 PM – 25 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Trying to explain extreme value theory: The Fréchet is surprising simple to rederive. pic.twitter.com/9RnRTk84AvPermalink 4:39 AM – 25 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Again it is one position to say: “I wish to be with people from my tribe”, it is another one to claim: “I don’t want these people around BECAUSE they are genetically inferior”. This @erasmuse is in that second category which is FAR more dangerous. Permalink 1:13 PM – 24 Nov 2019
@nntaleb @wrasmusevious Rasmusen’s stance has nothing to do with intellectual arguments; he has an a priori that some people have genetically inferior IQ & is obsessing over it. When I posted my IQ stuff @easmuse did not engage w/the statistics/math, the only thing he did is pour abuse. pic.twitter.com/bkOqncjRPsPermalink 1:04 PM – 24 Nov 2019
@nntaleb @wrasmusevious Rasmusen’s stance has nothing to do with intellectual arguments; he has an a priori that some people have genetically inferior IQ & is obsessing over it. When I posted my IQ stuff @easmuse did not engage w/the statistics/math, the only thing he did is pour abuse. pic.twitter.com/bkOqncjRPsPermalink 1:04 PM – 24 Nov 2019
@TalebWisdom “A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy.” – Nassim Taleb #ethics Permalink 12:57 PM – 24 Nov 2019
@nntaleb 1) The first #localist is Proudhon. He was both anarchist & federalist, understood the link between distributed power and centralization. “Anarchy is order without power”. He got ran over by Marxists IYIs who fell for Marx’s nonsensical handwaving “scientific” approaches. pic.twitter.com/dnh1mboOe1Permalink 2:14 AM – 24 Nov 2019
@nntalebbot “A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a “solution” and creates a problem.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 23 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Eric Rasmusen did produce all manner of personal abuse when my piece on IQ, heritability, etc. came out –I was wondering why, since his statistical comments were random. Turns out the fellow has indeed neo-nazi beliefs and tendencies. https://twitter.com/erasmuse/status/1196917954711080961 Permalink 11:57 AM – 23 Nov 2019
@paulportesi Debt and leverage have a @nntaleb dose-response sigmoid characteristics. Simply said, debt and leveraged is similar to drugs. It can be convex initially but will eventually reach an upper limit where it becomes concave an exponentially harmful. Permalink 10:09 AM – 23 Nov 2019
@nntaleb I expect plenty of factories to be built once #RiadPonzi and his policies are terminated. It took 3 years for Egypt and Turkey to build yuuuge reserves after their devaluation. I will make sure Riad Salameh is remembered as the MOST HARMFUL person in the history of #Lebanon. Permalink 6:46 AM – 23 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Meanwhile I am optimistic that once the Ponzi stops, we will have a yuuuuuge boom in #Lebanon. Permalink 6:06 AM – 23 Nov 2019
@nntaleb After my USJ talk on #RiadPonzi & Localism a few “economists” went on MTV to explain I was nonsensical & “arrogant”, it was not a Ponzi, Lebanon is different, etc. Triangle explains where it is a Ponzi: + Use new deposits to pay interest to existing depositors rather than invest! pic.twitter.com/0LtlAZsOTbPermalink 6:03 AM – 23 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Note I refuse honors and rank & when introduced as a speaker, I allow only one piece of information: Uber ratings of >4.9 Excellent bullet points for my lecktshur on #Localism at LAU New York. https://twitter.com/JacobGnther1/status/1198149271196983296 Permalink 2:38 AM – 23 Nov 2019
@DominikWeil Following his activities in Lebanon closely – if his ideas on #localism and #decentralization of power structures can be implemented there… – provides hope & tailwind for other localist movements around the globe #freecityfrankfurt https://mobile.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1196790333000077312 Permalink 7:58 AM – 22 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Fascist @asadabukhalil wrote the only commentary on my talk on #Localism below The fascist denies local ancestral Lebanese poetry (Zajal) as a literary form. The unmistakable stamp of fascism all across. Particularly in the denial of the notion of scale. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww?view_as=subscriber Permalink 4:42 AM – 22 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Start tagging Arabists as “facists” nemesis of #Localism They COERCE you into an “identity” Destroy diversity & force a Medieval language w/purity Stamp out Mediterranean culture in Lebanon, & its character as cultural crossroad Example: antilocalist fascist @asadabukhalil Permalink 4:37 AM – 22 Nov 2019
@nntaleb People in Lebanon are not yet used to see a person entirely free who doesn’t give a fuck about his reputation. Permalink 2:42 AM – 22 Nov 2019
@nntaleb He made the mistake of pathologizing someone, which to me is a yuuuge intellectual violation. He will pay for it for the rest of his life as I find it egregious: that’s what the Soviets did with dissent. Never pathologize. Permalink 2:07 AM – 22 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Is it me or it is quite strange when someone keeps insulting you online, but not in person when they unexpectly meet you in the physical world? In other words talk is cheap online, but costly in real life. #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1197255332864647168 Permalink 2:12 PM – 21 Nov 2019
@normonics We live in a novel age, no doubt But you have to be blind to believe it is “absolutely” novel Most of what is relevant to us is not new but very old indeed, easy to take for granted I suppose And, what should one “blindly follow”, Bret? The latest trend? https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1197576604563562499 Permalink 1:13 PM – 21 Nov 2019
@nntaleb From the remarks of the mob @RaniaKhalek is sending my way, there is an ELEMENTARY defect of reasoning both with her & the mob. One can be AGAINST US interventionism yet AGAINST repressive theocracy & AGAINST the massacre of young protesters in Iraq & Iran. Fehménin? Permalink 10:34 AM – 21 Nov 2019
@normonics .@TulsiGabbard expressed the need for local-first and regional-based agriculture model last night This is common sense from every perspective *except* for large scale factory-style industrial agriculture corporations and their lobby. Thank you, Tulsi. Permalink 8:47 AM – 21 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Outside an ancestral environment (or a small village), you cannot be both ethical and striving for people to like you. Permalink 8:42 AM – 21 Nov 2019
@nntaleb OK, confirmed statistically. 100% of @RaniaKhalek posts are propaganda. There is NO information in the posts of the propagandists, since all you see is cherrypicked. Her “journalism” career is done. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1197412341874339840?s=20 Permalink 7:27 AM – 21 Nov 2019
@nntaleb I removed from The Black Swan these comment because, at the time, I was stupid enough to listen to editors. “A White Swan not taking place is a Black Swan.” “You look at counterexamples for the usual, verification for the unusual”. https://twitter.com/Heinonmatti/status/1197502130799677440 Permalink 5:12 AM – 21 Nov 2019
@nntaleb MODERNISM Before the formation of the Greek Nation-State & Nordic historical manufacturing, Greek “identity” was not built ar. Classical Greece,but Greek Orthodoxy Greek Restaurants, now called “Olympic”, Acropolis, wd have been “Agios Nikolaos”, “Ag. Dimitrios”, “Aya Pelagia” Permalink 3:56 AM – 21 Nov 2019
@nntaleb I told an assembly of prominent farts in Lebanon, the local establishment: I don’t care about you f*cks, so long as your children are reading the INCERTO. And they are. Permalink 8:19 AM – 20 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Napoleon wanted power & glory. He liked flashy victories. Cambaceres who *wrote* the Napoleonic code liked influence. Napoleon lost everything but most of the world uses the Cambareces code dubbed “code Napoléon”. The world is run according to C. Gabish? https://twitter.com/prateekkul/status/1197184716815978497?s=20 Permalink 8:17 AM – 20 Nov 2019
@nntaleb I respect those who seek influence; never those who seek power. Permalink 7:48 AM – 20 Nov 2019
@TalebWisdom “In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social “science” and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:09 AM – 20 Nov 2019
@nntaleb In other words we get an exponential out of a power law. Permalink 3:57 PM – 19 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Interesting (and shocking) result. The “missing tail” for a power law follows a thin-tailed distribution. pic.twitter.com/Uh2RR8ikzFPermalink 2:22 PM – 19 Nov 2019
@nntaleb GRECO-SEMITIC MYSTERIOUS PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: Seems that qariba قارب (small boat) doesn’t come from קָרוֹב قرب, proximity (to coast) but from the Byzantine Greek καράβι (pl.l καράβια) [same root as”crab”] Could the Byz. Greek originate from the Semitic קָרוֹב via Syrian Greek? Permalink 2:03 PM – 19 Nov 2019
@nntaleb It feels the riots are more likely to succeed in Iran because: 1- Trump did not claim direct credit 2- Little news coverage 3- It feels like it is about time, I mean about time Permalink 12:35 PM – 19 Nov 2019
@HietanenPaavo More shenanigans by Finnish #Antifragile team w/ @LIHF_Living @STrosterud @Heinonmatti. Discussing hunting, Finnish localism and how more @nntaleb’s localism should be planted to Finnish political soil pic.twitter.com/Vywx3JgEnePermalink 11:25 AM – 19 Nov 2019
@nntaleb #RiadPonzi These estimates were close. Got new information, the alpha coefficient is stable. pic.twitter.com/hsgpzkZuOYPermalink 9:08 AM – 19 Nov 2019
@BrendanJHammer Taking my daily @nntaleb – he nails it here on the proxy wars of couples. #BedOfProcrustes pic.twitter.com/S8VYxYqWBXPermalink 7:33 AM – 19 Nov 2019
@RickKLN Rediscovered my faith years ago when you blocked me on FB. A Christian that didn’t discuss both sides, and could dismiss questions as BS changed my life. One of these years I will attend #RWRI and say thanks in person. Diplomacy is NOT more effective. BS busting is. Permalink 2:18 AM – 18 Nov 2019
@nntaleb The Lebanese are still shocked by my “in your face” blunt, totally unapologetic, uncompromising, no-BS, “he’s incompetent”/”you’re an idiot” approach, esp when I address IYI “specialists” I threw someone w/unsollicited advice “diplomacy is more effective” out of my house. Permalink 2:06 AM – 18 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Very rough statistical estimatess. Wished the banks told us more. Good news for the small depositor pic.twitter.com/WKp6ptnO9JPermalink 1:25 AM – 18 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Key part in PRINCIPIA is that the demarcation left-right has been redrawn by real science, along the lines STATIST-LOCALIST-MINARCHIST When I gave my tawk in Boulder, was told US most localists self-defined as “left”.Super-localist= Libertarian, etc. I prefer the IDIOT-NONIDIOT https://twitter.com/laurentozon/status/1196347126466396162 Permalink 1:23 AM – 18 Nov 2019
@nntaleb I think the haircut can be milder 200k-1 mil, since the bulk is from accounts>1 mil Permalink 1:12 AM – 18 Nov 2019
@nntaleb There is a problem w/: Short Aramco Long Oil contracts which maturity? Aramco =~ perpetual maturity The front contracts can be much, much more volatile than the back and decorrelate during squeezes. Discussed in one of the #RWRI https://twitter.com/mazen_barbir/status/1196292503743401985?s=20 Permalink 11:39 PM – 17 Nov 2019
@nntaleb QUIZ (Statistical sleuthing) We know that +1% of accts in #Lebanon own 50% of total, $170 bil +accts <$200K represent $20 bil in total (rough numbers) Assume Pareto distr. How many accounts have > 200K, 1 mil, 10 mil ? What’s the weekly drain from 1000$ withdrawal per acct? Permalink 4:09 PM – 17 Nov 2019
@nntaleb #Localism A crowd starts clapping from one single trigger. Revolutions (1848, #LebanonProtest, Iran, Iraq, Chile, H-K, Barcelona) spread spontaneously, “leaderless”, bec. complex systems work by 1 heuristic: once you find the trigger, you get power law behavior. Hard to reverse. Permalink 2:10 PM – 17 Nov 2019
@nntaleb He said “Tripolis is 10% Salafi, mostly in one neighborhood, & there is no alcohol in the whole place out of fear. You need to either increase the subdivisions or force the sectarians into a secular system that will turn them into terrorists out of resentment.” Permalink 1:50 PM – 17 Nov 2019
@nntaleb #Localism at its best!!! Intoxicated by what is happening in Tripolis (Troblos) Tens of simultaneous ORDERLY discussion groups on constitutional, legal, economic matters Shocked to hear someone telling me “Tripoli shd not be one municipality ” because “minority rules”! pic.twitter.com/kw6Ns9RPmPPermalink 12:57 PM – 17 Nov 2019
@soonaorlater ‘Bitcoin removes [government] from the transaction…They’re trying to ‘ban bitcoin’ because they’re afraid of it. It’s important for us [the Lebanese] from now on to learn about crypto. Our collective intelligence is greater than the state’s’ – @nntaleb https://open.tube/videos/watch/f5813d6f-96d2-4e95-b3b3-a7c6a51abd7f Permalink 11:24 AM – 17 Nov 2019
@nntaleb A rioter was explaining the Silver Rule: “Mitl ma bit3omil btet3omal” Permalink 10:03 AM – 17 Nov 2019
@rebeccacollard “From Tehran to Beirut, one revolution that won’t die” Lebanese chanting in support of Iran protests tonight. #LebanonProtests #IranProtests #iran #لبنان_ينتقض pic.twitter.com/V9QydyrU9APermalink 9:20 AM – 17 Nov 2019
@nntaleb II- Also as a bonus you “earn” the country risk since Aramco is located in the Shiite area with an oppressed minority who rightfully believe oil is theirs. Permalink 8:18 AM – 17 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Pareto 80/20 Estimated share of deposits. I suggest NO HAIRCUT except for acc >500K-1m & progressive beyond. pic.twitter.com/JZxgt5Z8HBPermalink 5:11 AM – 15 Nov 2019
@nntaleb GEORGIA as a model for #Lebanon MOST successful post-Soviet state. -Fired the entire police dept. Over 7 month w/o law enforcement, crime dropped by 60% (they claim) -Anti-corruption gov : most in their 20s, PM 32. 0 tolerance,$20 bribe=>7y jail #كلن_يعني_كلن @fadyasly Permalink 4:17 AM – 15 Nov 2019
@nntaleb This tweet puts to rest all possible theories of “Aounist tendencies” on my part. I am intransigent & INDEPENDENT. Always, everywhere, w/ no political loyalties even if I am buddies w/@Gebran_Bassil A judge has no friends. There are NO exceptions. #كلن_يعني_كلن #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 3:59 AM – 15 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Typo: (“incl Gold” shd be “excl. Gold”), but P/L (actual negative bleed) must me much > $5 bn. Ref: Toufic Gaspard’s note. pic.twitter.com/Ip0a0US4BPPermalink 5:53 AM – 14 Nov 2019
@nntaleb My talk tomorrow. Riad’s Ponzi has been depleting reserves at a yuuuuge rate & borrowing to preserve a harmful “peg”. BDL has liabilities >$86 bil costing huge carry and assets <$40bil (incl. gold) earning <1%. On top of the fiscal deficit Riad’s Ponzi is costing>$5 bil/year https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1194968612940996608 Permalink 5:32 AM – 14 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Revised the paper on the misfitness of binary predictions in real life (and the nonsense in many psychological claims) @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/owoC1TWEjVPermalink 4:35 AM – 14 Nov 2019
@normonics There are moments where I almost feel pity on a guy like this But invariably they re-reveal themselves Steven Brainiac Pinker: “If you don’t recite my corporate propaganda you are a mindless killer” What a f**ing piece of trash. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1194449088185454592 Permalink 9:35 AM – 13 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Aoun seems to see the protests as some transitory annoyance –he appears to be irritated by the messenger. Permalink 7:34 AM – 13 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Indeed I listened to his interview. That’s what he said. And, what is worse, what he meant. Permalink 6:09 AM – 13 Nov 2019
@nntaleb President Michel Aoun You said that those who don’t like the government should emigrate. I am doing the exact reverse. I left 43 years ago. I am now in transit to Beirut, just to make sure YOU emigrate. #LebanonProtests cc:@Gebran_Bassil #لبنان_ينتفض pic.twitter.com/yM2vZybyprPermalink 4:55 AM – 13 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Lesson from Riad Salameh’s incompetence: No central banker should ever try to print money in a foreign currency. Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Owing to the responses, USJ will be using a different amphitheater >500 pple; a new announcement will be posted tomorrow. [Also note that your twitter response is not a reservation but a market assessment; it is still first come first served] Permalink 9:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019
@nntaleb My lecture, Friday 6 PM “From Ponzi to Localism” USJ School of Medicine Please confirm on Twitter so we can predict attendance. LANGUAGE: Lebanese pic.twitter.com/aFdVZYf5BXPermalink 1:46 AM – 12 Nov 2019
@Stefano_Peron kernel Mutual information in cluster matrix. Tnx to @financequant @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/9TrhAhdNVRPermalink 6:37 AM – 11 Nov 2019
@nntaleb WE MUST STOP SALAMEH NOW! #RiadPonzi Salameh MUST suspend payments on the Eurobond & declare a moratorium. This is outright theft from Lebanese citizens. Send to your friends! Will discuss further on Friday evening 6PM in Beirut #lebanonprotest #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 6:27 AM – 11 Nov 2019
@MauriceMassaad I work in a Leb co. that manufactures steel shelving solutions. 10 y ago we started exporting to difficult countries in Europe, Africa, ME. I personally spent 4 y trying to convince a French company to join us … with success! Now we are not able to deliver. Thank you. Permalink 4:52 AM – 11 Nov 2019
@nntaleb When you are scared, it is impossible to hide it, no matter how hard you try. Permalink 4:19 AM – 11 Nov 2019
@nntaleb CURRENT TWITTER ACTIVISM +#Localism & anti geopolitical BS vendors/Arabist fascism), & #lebanonprotest +#RiadPonzi +Pseudostatistics, esp. #Quilletbeciles/Neonazis/Eugenists w IQ claims & other #Alt-Right #Nordicists +#Nudge Finished: #Monsanto, #SaudiBarbaria, #Econometrics Permalink 4:09 AM – 11 Nov 2019
@nntaleb We don’t have to avoid imports, but the local industry became …just banks. I want #RiadPonzi to pay for it. #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Salameh’s Ponzi killed the Lebanese economy: small businesses, anything that could provide exports or mitigate imports has been crowded out. #RiadPonzi #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests Permalink 3:50 AM – 11 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Friends, looking for a Madoff expert to figure out how they finally allocated the losses. #Ponzi #LebanonProtests #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 3:40 PM – 10 Nov 2019
@TalebWisdom “Wisdom isn’t about understanding things (& people); it is knowing what they can do to you.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #wisdom Permalink 1:10 PM – 10 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Good news that Western newspapers are not reporting on #LebanonProtests. Why? Journos only get geopolitics & this is (still) a localist anti-geopolitical revolt. Trick by BS vendors (eg @tomfriedman) who understand nothing is make things geopolitical. (See #TheBlackSwan) Permalink 12:05 PM – 10 Nov 2019
@justinowings What’s lost in the climate debate? Pushing models and trusting experts _undermines_ the argument for caution. Alternative argument: Set the science aside. Lean on decision making under uncertainty—something everyone understands. “We have only one planet.” So don’t f**k it up. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1193545813785530370 Permalink 7:35 AM – 10 Nov 2019
@Lekapenos 1) I’m going to continue ridiculing the “muh steppe” quasi-Nordicists here: “The genetic basis of a number of physical features of the Yamnaya people were ascertained by the ancient DNA studies conducted by Haak et al. (2015), Wilde et al. (2014) and Mathieson et al. (2015): Permalink 5:56 AM – 10 Nov 2019
