Monthly Archives: September 2019

NNT Brazil, Russia 2019 | Youtube

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Published on Sep 6, 2019
Nassim Taleb: “O Brasil é o país do futuro. Não precisa de boas pessoas, mas de um bom sistema.”
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Published on Aug 26, 2019

The WorldSkills Conference 2019 started at important debate between Nassim Taleb and Dmitry Peskov, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation on Digital and Technological Development and Director of the department «Young Professionals» of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives. The experts discussed about the risk-engineering and its benefits for creating better management tools and and building a strong competitive economy.
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Evolutionary Biologists, Ayn Rand, Dawkins, Quilettebeciles, Nate Silver, Mosquitos, Bolton, Pinker, Nudgeboy, Pencilwits, Brasil | Twitter

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Brazilian cousins Rubens Taleb, Rogerio Taleb, & namesake Nassim Taleb came to the conference.

Absence of Evidence Is Not Evidence of Absence (Hattip Dave Lull)

@nntaleb We had DNA evidence that the ancient Egyptian ruling class came from the North. Socks-with-scandals places them somewhere around what is now Central Germany. https://twitter.com/rabihalameddine/status/1176247307341164544   Permalink 2:55 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3) People have no problem getting Nietzsche, Le Bon, & other’s point that crowds composed of sane individuals can go crazy. It is harder to get the reverse: that some groups of unfit individuals can be fitter than others with better individuals. Permalink 2:10 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 2) These simple comments by the 2 fellows destroy +5 decades of evolutionary psychology/biology, etc. I mean really shatter current methods. pic.twitter.com/Q6Opzp6XFF Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Please do not respond to my claim that “(most) evolutionary biologists are dumb” by calling me an egomaniac/some other pathology or “he says everybody but me is dumb”. Rather, try to grasp the below thread w/discussions by @yaneerbaryam etc. You will then see the gravity. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1176190670433857536   Permalink 1:46 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Actually this is a chapter in #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/reC9hrJ8VD Permalink 11:00 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Do not mess with him. https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1175888089367162880   Permalink 10:33 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I would tell him that he should feel lucky. Compare these to the worst possible nightmare: an association with Ayn Rand. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1176107964656234497   Permalink 10:13 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@MuserMarco His argument is basicallly that because of nonlinear effects the macro (group) cannot be explained by the micro (individual). A group is not just a bunch of individuals. Or in other words, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. Permalink 8:13 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Caro Bret, This explanatorizing is mired in 1960s Mickey-Mouse verbalisms devised by British (possibly drunk) naive statisticomaniacs. Because of scaling, arguments for the survival of individual(s)≠survival of groups. So you need to explain groups qua groups. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 7:51 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Cheese Galettes with halloumi & kashkaval made by Syrians from Raqqa (Beirut highway). pic.twitter.com/HrwRVoEW0r Permalink 4:53 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@ProBucks_ “naive interventionism” proving detrimental in yet another complex system with long lasting unintended effects. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1175636181515718656   Permalink 10:36 PM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The art and science of drinking with Russians. pic.twitter.com/GIF8al4S8K Permalink 11:09 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Vitello tonnato with squid ink. #OnlyinMoscow pic.twitter.com/EWz9zI60Sf Permalink 8:12 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@GeorgeJNasr #Pedophrasty: Argument involving #Children to prop up a rationalization, & make opponents look like assholes. Nobody has the heart to question the authenticity or source of the #news. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rioKeFcY7B”>  pic.twitter.com/rioKeFcY7B Permalink 7:52 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Why is it wrong to be a “group selectionist”, @BretWeinstein ? You do not have to defend yourself ag. the BS vendor @sapinker. The 2 journalists Pinker & Dawkins have been barking/bullshitting w/o showing flaws in Nowak, Wilson et al. #Multiscale & aggregation. @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1175592010662567936   Permalink 5:07 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Khatchapuri pic.twitter.com/AUAA39pjc4 Permalink 4:04 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There are three types of large corporations: those about to go bankrupt, those that are bankrupt and hide it, those that are bankrupt and don’t know it. Permalink 12:11 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty is spreading https://twitter.com/mayurshetty01/status/1175624855837925376   Permalink 12:00 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb водка pic.twitter.com/Q85lklqq8Y Permalink 1:35 PM – 21 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The great John Gray explains that Christianity is, basically, secular humanism. https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1174383075419197441   Permalink 9:15 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Dawkins, as exected, another fake scholar. https://twitter.com/gheathwhyte/status/1175081067943997440   Permalink 7:47 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@RickyDelFuego Next phase begins when the kids start reading @nntaleb and realize the reason no one listens to the “educated” is because someone who collected $100,000 in debt to get a PhD in “empathy as communication” or whatever isn’t worth listening to. https://twitter.com/nicgaston/status/1175302556324651009   Permalink 7:14 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1170627288947470336   https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1166321418432339969   Permalink 4:12 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@PaulSkallas ”If your private life conflicts with your intellectual opinion, it cancels your intellectual ideas, not your private life.” Permalink 5:53 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And “psychologist”. https://twitter.com/nntalebbot/status/1175190661538226177   Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@GuillermoBurr The results are so aberrant and childish that they remind me of Dr Malcolm in the movie Jurasic Park. When he is informed that all dinosaurs are female and that they cannot breed, he answers: life will find a way (sic) Permalink 4:46 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@Vasilis48814362 When I finished black swan, I felt good, but also in panic because I could not believe for once someone was right on pretty much everything. The smear articles online only worsened this panic. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1175185309073625093   Permalink 4:27 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@holland_tom One is a work of Protestant theology. And one is by me! https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1175053970613706753?s=20   Permalink 7:29 AM – 20 Sep 2019

@nntalebbot “it is only when you don’t care about your reputation that you tend to have a good one.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The most convincing evidence that the psychology of happiness is total BS is to meet “happiness” “expert” psychologists in person. https://twitter.com/alexandersquats/status/1174719753283178496   Permalink 9:31 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@normonics looks like I’ve been using “moron” where I should have been using “imbecile” Nassim gets it right again Permalink 7:41 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@RobRastapop Of all writings I love only that which is written in blood. Nietzsche Not everything that happens, happens for a reason. But everything that survives, survives for a reason. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/M4l1VIZitz Permalink 6:04 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@fpingham Fractal localism means skin in the game and personal accountability @nntaleb https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/999927177259892738   Permalink 5:36 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@AssalehAmer The Bed of Procrustes, https://twitter.com/king4judge/status/1174507514358095873   Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A #Lindy drink. So is its (mild) hangover. Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@john_f_hamer “Just as dyed hair makes old men less attractive, it is what you do to hide your weaknesses that makes them repugnant.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/0bJDJ3rLtS Permalink 4:12 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@themintmag “Every time I have questioned these methods I have been abruptly countered with: “they have the Nobel”, which I have found impossible to argue with.” – @nntaleb Hence the need for the #NotTheNobel. Econ is not a science. Vote for a fresh thinker today! https://lght.ly/g1dmja9   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uhvtHJoUoO”>  pic.twitter.com/uhvtHJoUoO Permalink 3:30 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “What they call philosophy I call literature; what they call literature I call journalism; what they call journalism I call gossip; and what they call gossip I call (generously) voyeurism.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2:13 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@sean_a_mcclure Many lack the scientific literacy needed to understand the IQ debate. I wrote this conceptual article to help those ill-equipped to form an educated opinion on a massively important topic. https://bit.ly/2m0JtAM   @nntaleb @normonics @trishankkarthik #science #psychology ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hFJQlrqgxS”>  pic.twitter.com/hFJQlrqgxS Permalink 3:15 PM – 18 Sep 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/0sfzemUBsL Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@nabilshadman @nntaleb said “Learning is rooted in repetition and convexity, meaning that the reading of a single text twice is more profitable than reading two different texts once.” Permalink 11:00 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@birdxi1988 Jus realize this is extremely important. Not only in psychology but also in finance. This debunked various kinds of CAPM related regression. Eg, Fama–MacBeth regression(for risk premium). Same situation as here: return(fat tail) is regressed over beta(thin). E(R^2) is zero! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1174231033514008576   Permalink 10:18 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Celebrating the Negroni’s 100th anniversary. (in Brescia). But I was told it tastes the same in Milan, and maybe almost the same elsewhere. pic.twitter.com/GIf8rimtNf Permalink 8:53 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@willianadamczyk “Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsability”. @nntaleb , 2012 Permalink 8:02 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@kudra_1 “Pedophrasty,” coined by @nntaleb: Using children to “prop up a rationalization and make the opponent look like an asshole, as people are defenseless and suspend all skepticism in front of suffering children.” https://twitter.com/jenniferm_q/status/1174308373526929408   Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@JYuter I’m old enough to remember when people called for civility when someone died (and that’s assuming it’s true) https://twitter.com/jeremymbarr/status/1174098732905881601   Permalink 4:18 PM – 17 Sep 2019

@garyruskin U.S. Right to Know investigates big food and agrichemical companies. We expose what they want to hide. We stand up for our right to know what’s in our food. Please contribute today: https://www.patreon.com/usrtk   Permalink 9:17 AM – 17 Sep 2019

@venksaiyan Something @nntaleb has been saying for long. Theory often follows Invention. https://twitter.com/davidlayden/status/1173712393312059393   Permalink 1:25 AM – 17 Sep 2019

@sjourdan This new edition of #incerto is beautiful. @nntaleb rocks. pic.twitter.com/wTaZ16iHZh Permalink 10:21 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@exergiovanni I thought religion was irrational. Thanks to professor @nntaleb I changed my mind diametrically. Permalink 6:17 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This is not an “error”: this is genetics. Higher dimensions are really unpredictable. pic.twitter.com/1CqvZokuiz Permalink 3:25 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “I am never bothered by normal people; it is the bull***tter in the intellectual profession who bothers me.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 2:33 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb People are brainwashed to not realize that so many “noble” pursuits (academia, service, anything where one is paid with “honors”) are zero-sum. And wealth pursuits, outside of rent seeking, aren’t zero-sum. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1173561683870179328   Permalink 12:42 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntalebbot “The fool generalizes the particular; the nerd particularizes the general; some do both; and the wise does neither” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Joey Automata: you need the Quilettebeciles to keep posting complaints about you, not the reverse. Keep irritating them, don’t reply TO them. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1173195884236087296   Permalink 9:55 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There are other errors… the person who put the cheat sheet together is not familiar with probability. Permalink 8:17 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The “thinking like Nate Silver” part is a red flag. https://twitter.com/KirkDBorne/status/1173511271544586240   Permalink 8:13 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Vegan is Halal, not the opposite. Much more asymmetric that you think. https://twitter.com/naniiyer/status/1173567520860704769   Permalink 6:50 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@sustain05 pic.twitter.com/Np6mErhFuW Permalink 6:12 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@_benoux_ For those who still don’t get it. Let’s use an another example: @nntaleb published an excellent book, “SKIN IN THE GAME”. A figurative title consolidates a background in probability & statistics. He didn’t name it “Enlightened Reason & Science of Risks in Humanism” (Pinker-like). Permalink 5:36 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “My experience is that money and transactions purify relations; ideas and abstract matters like “recognition” and “credit” warp them, creating an atmosphere of perpetual rivalry.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile Permalink 4:38 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SAUDI FIELDS It’s not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded by the Saudi government. Permalink 6:55 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SAUDI FIELDS It’s not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded by the Saudi government. Permalink 6:55 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This is the only compliment that counts, not that I actually agree with the designation “ash*” as a proxy for uncompromizing. https://twitter.com/squidbidness/status/1173310545748848641   Permalink 12:02 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Friends, we need 3 more applicants for women scholarships for RWRI 12 in New York Oct 24. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 9:29 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@BLebnene L fasel l 20 min kteb Le Petit Prince bil Libnene bil 7arfen l 3arabe wil Letiine! Tarjamit @HsenAndil الفصل ال20 من كتاب Le Petit Prince باللبناني بالحرفين العربي واللاتيني! https://medium.com/bel-lebneene/l-fasel-l-20-l-miir-zzghiir-f58995d8d080   Permalink 8:17 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@zkortbawy باللبناني”خَلّيك هَون Khallik Hawn” = “إبقى هنا Ibka Houna” بالعربي #بتحكي_لبناني_كتوب_لبناني @BLebnene Permalink 2:13 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sample https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLQ0ryLOWik&feature=share   Permalink 2:48 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Northern Lebanese, from Zgharta. https://twitter.com/manwithahammer/status/1172969296189894661   Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@DrMichaelBonner For flexibility and clarity: Greek; For precision: a tie between Latin and Arabic; For sound: a tie between Syriac and Persian; For rhythm: Arabic; For intricacy: Sanskrit; For interesting texts: Greek, Aramaic, Syriac, and Armenian. For sheer mental exertion: Hieroglyphic! https://twitter.com/Bfklin/status/1172964937741869057   Permalink 1:13 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This guy is good. And he knows his stuff. https://twitter.com/DrMichaelBonner/status/1172845055289245696   Permalink 12:03 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Of course, Bill Gates doesn’t get that neomania works with software with reversible errors, not with complex systems. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1172904846787301377?s=20   Permalink 9:18 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@Jaffer22915438 FWIW: Tulsi Gabbard had more traffic to her website during the Dem debate than any day since the last debate. Permalink 8:30 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@wrathofgnon We know that modern grains are far less nutritious than ancient grains. Turns out even our great-grand parents ate vegetables that were many times as nutritious as what we are eating today. https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1172843628898578433   Permalink 8:25 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Of course, the Genetically Modified Mosquito project has gone wrong, with, really, “unforeseen outcomes”. When will IYIs learn that we don’t understand complex systems enough to play with them? Or when will we learn that science is not scientism? pic.twitter.com/YOAZcvKKav Permalink 6:25 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A reminder that neuroscience, psychology, etc. are NOT reliable, not citable, not useable for anything other than tenure & academic rent seeking. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/09/free-will-bereitschaftspotential/597736/   Permalink 1:16 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/myKY0meoT6 Permalink 12:47 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR R^2 is expected to be 0 but in small samples it shows much higher value, here .98. Small is anything <10^8. (cont) pic.twitter.com/3EDMSvpbEB Permalink 12:43 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-09-12/-negative-rates-is-insanity-says-universa-s-spitznagel-video?srnd=styt   Part 2 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio @ErikSchatzker @BloombergTV #bonds #tailrisk #riskparity #riskparody ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ouHZcC9T7x”>  pic.twitter.com/ouHZcC9T7x Permalink 12:41 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Didn’t we put this, @normonics, in our Precautionary Principle paper? Where did it go? pic.twitter.com/aQ1zF0Peki Permalink 11:20 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb You can’t industrialize, commoditize, & scale knowledge without destroying it at is core. Scholarship is fundamentally an artisanal-style pursuit. Permalink 11:13 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@Contrepoints Face au terrorisme, les #neoconservateurs pensent pouvoir utiliser l’hégémonie politique, militaire et diplomatique pour façonner un monde à leur convenance. Pour @nntaleb, ils font trois erreurs constantes que @FredericMasCP nous explique. #Bolton #Trump https://www.contrepoints.org/2019/09/12/353340-donald-trump-limoge-john-bolton-un-revers-pour-les-neoconservateurs   Permalink 11:06 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb From experience, I haven’t seen erudites inside academia (few exceptions). By erudition, I mean solid knowledge (ancient languages, history, mathematics, literature-but-not-literary-theories) & naturally exclude knowledge of crap & theories written since 1924 in social “science”. https://twitter.com/T_Libo/status/1172555372982390785   Permalink 10:17 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The association “juzur lubnan” is doing great environmental work; but it is named using loan words from Arabic. Should be renamed “Shlush Lebnén”. #Localism #StandAgainstArabImperialism Permalink 8:44 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Neomania in #Antifragile https://twitter.com/berensjoshua/status/1172531835454152705   Permalink 8:29 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The “naturalistic fallacy” is not a fallacy outside the moral domain. Gabish? Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I am scared of living in a society that doesn’t find it obvious that things perfected by nature over millions of years are scientifically speaking, safer than things made by some “scientists” in a lab. [Corrected] Statistically, the “large n” of nature makes it > scientific. https://twitter.com/EmanuelDerman/status/1139279122516054018   Permalink 6:02 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb No bureaucrats in peace discussions without some adult supervision. PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   #Blackswanman http://blackswanman.com/#lg=1&slide=41   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G6Y4xi1QCQ”>  pic.twitter.com/G6Y4xi1QCQ Permalink 5:12 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb NEgotiation. Permalink 2:57 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This was predictive: Black Swan Man tells Trump to have NO bureaucrat involved in ANY peace negociation. No bureaucrat in anything other than record keeping/clerical stuff. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864   Permalink 1:22 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-09-12/-negative-rates-is-insanity-says-universa-s-spitznagel-video?srnd=styt   Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio @ErikSchatzker @BloombergTV #bonds #tailrisk #riskparity #riskparody ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/eEFAjGMaoT”>  pic.twitter.com/eEFAjGMaoT Permalink 12:51 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@TheBobber Plant-based burgers may be “safe” but they are loaded with crap that Your Grandmother would not recognize and you would be wise (and healthier) to heed the advice of @nntaleb and avoid them. https://twitter.com/GastroHistory/status/1172214307636932608   Permalink 11:39 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@normonics The only honest scientific approach to a system as large and complex as the “climate” is one of acknowledging uncertainty, and proceeding with precaution https://fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf   Permalink 6:13 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@normonics The incessant interventionism of @BillGates and his ilk is enabled by the pathological certainty generated by scientism https://twitter.com/argumentwinner/status/1171979948342546432   Permalink 6:02 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@city_affairs “The intellectual yet idiot is subscribed to the New Yorker” @nntaleb https://twitter.com/DanielleRyanJ/status/1172109337738862592   Permalink 6:00 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@oskarth @nntaleb Squid ink in Venesia pic.twitter.com/93o0fEx5Ae Permalink 5:53 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3rd is the Charm. This continues Cirillo & Taleb (2016, 2019), Clauset (2018) showing Pinker @sapinker statement on decline of wars is total BS. @BillGates shd read the scientific literature before peddling Pinker’s flawed journalistic book. https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1171960638882467845   Permalink 5:06 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Good news: Jon Entine and the Genetics Literary Project are designed to intimidate and smear GMO skeptics. They kept spread articles on yours truly. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1172111865616490496   Permalink 5:00 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@financequant Got a big laugh in my class this afternoon. “In most sciences if reality and the model don’t match, then the model is deemed wrong. In economics that’s taken as evidence that there is something wrong with reality.” Thing is, I wasn’t trying to be funny. Permalink 5:24 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Excellent news. 40 years of sanctions… Enough unnecessary tensions. Had bureaucrats been involved, the 30 year war would have lasted 300 years. https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1171812365576409088   Permalink 1:55 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Il faudrait le traduire en francais. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 1:32 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb France is listening to the idea that IQ is largely a fraud. https://twitter.com/LePoint/status/1171826033294741505   Permalink 1:00 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A French essayist watched me during a twitter fight. pic.twitter.com/SAFf1rdMeO Permalink 4:35 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In Brazil met a fellow who plants trees for paper; claimed the 000s trees he planted yuuugely help the environment. STATIC ANALYSIS: when you buy a book they cut a tree. DYNAMIC ANALYSIS: when you buy a book, they plant a tree for 5-15 years. Use paper! Similar to ergodicity. Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Since @davidgraeber is a target of Quilletbeciles, here is some information about their intellectual standards. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1171507313045209088.html   Permalink 3:37 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I celebrate a certain class of events (Bolton’s demise, Pinker’s new BS) by drinking Советское шампанское, the only think left from the Soviet Union that still makes sense. Or rather, by taking a few celebratory sips then switching to vodka, arak, pastis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovetskoye_Shampanskoye   https://twitter.com/tututpouet/status/1171511489871536132   Permalink 4:41 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In one word, you get Steven Pinker @sapinker and the Mickey Mouse version of Western thought. Never read anything about the enlightenment by anyone (1) insufficiently trained in Greek/Latin, (2) not familiar w/medieval thought, (3) not familiar with theology (comes with (2)) https://twitter.com/_benoux_/status/1171520517586636802   Permalink 1:37 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Another reminder that @charlesmurray is a fake scholar, without even going into his Bell Curve. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162105686848880640   Permalink 1:15 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There goes my diet! Forgot about this plan to have champaign on the day Bolton is out. https://twitter.com/Bardiaexe/status/1171490805283901440?s=20   Permalink 11:45 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb That’s the NYT. Trump not looking for regime change in Iran. pic.twitter.com/8HwaHJsI7d Permalink 11:13 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Thank you. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1171452881729228802   Permalink 9:17 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@NonMeek Transitivity of correlation abused. An #Offshorecomic strip idea sparked by @nntaleb #correlation #IQ #transitivity #SocialSciences For more visit https://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   Buy my here https://buff.ly/2NQzbjY   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/OjwHIxzsup”>  pic.twitter.com/OjwHIxzsup Permalink 9:15 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb IQ does not PREDICT career success. Now that I have the data, found the R^2 close to 0. pic.twitter.com/NmZiaK22xN Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: Better presented in a Log Log Plot. 15-25 dimensions exceed the computational capacity of the planet. DNA has 000s dimensions. pic.twitter.com/UpK4TW1Dkm Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@satyakatla What contrasts Taleb frm information theorists (ITs), IMHO, is that he does math mystical, finds physical significance, which I don’t see amongst my wireless (who does mechanically) and IT folks. I’ve had learned more math just by following Taleb than any coursework I had taken. Permalink 5:42 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Rates do not reflect probability but expectation: “recessions” can take many values. This is BS. Will add to the paper on the flaws in binarizing forecasts (cc:@spyrosmakrid ) https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1171392223595905024   Permalink 5:19 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: it always shows up. Here I illustrate it with norms. Curse of dimensionality is what I used to show how 1) polygenic scores are a monstrous fraud, 2) GMO analyses don’t work, etc. pic.twitter.com/DAR8M4bTFv Permalink 5:16 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@QuintusCurtius Great thread. See @nntaleb rip into this historically-inaccurate, agenda-driven depiction of St. Augustine, who was of either Punic (i.e., Phoenician) or Berber ancestry. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1166786776259878912   Permalink 10:06 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 22 years of fighting for that simple point, everyone understands except social scientists, GMO shills, and ignorant risk peddlers . 22 years: How many fraudsters such as nudgeboy @r_thaler or Phil-the-rat Tetlock @PTetlock should we go through before we get that point? Permalink 6:49 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb From 1997 https://twitter.com/JerryCap/status/1171051074775654401   Permalink 6:28 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Voila The volume increases from 4/3 to 2^3 pic.twitter.com/kY2A3MoFkI Permalink 4:39 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Added the tutorial on norms to the book (Chapter 3) to show what happens with higher moments of distributions. pic.twitter.com/yvxQaalInx Permalink 5:13 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb David Blaine just tore a deck of cards in half —a real deck. pic.twitter.com/JL97MMuiY3 Permalink 3:00 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A lot of pencilwits didn’t get that it does not mean people always do things for money; it just means that those who are doing somthing “not for the money” don’t go out of their way to inform you of that fact. Blocked a bunch. Permalink 2:50 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb When someone says “I am not doing it for the money” he (she) is doing it only for the money. Permalink 9:54 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@QustnEverything Over 10 years since the last recession—this is a reason to be cautious; not complacent. From @nntaleb “The Black Swan” pic.twitter.com/Kr86v3xZJC Permalink 9:30 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The most humiliating moment: had (a long) dinner afterwards with the 3 cousins who spoke no English. Tried babbling in Portuguese, with help from a few Negronis, two caipirinhas &, of course, wine. At the end one of them complimented me: “how come you speak Spanish?” Permalink 1:44 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Because μεράκι I see as “soul in the game” https://twitter.com/GreekEtymology/status/1170467531955609605?s=20   Permalink 3:51 PM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: Is there a connection between the Greek μεράκι , the Lebanese mara2, (meaning enjoying some activity for its own sake, not the Arabic مرق meaning chicken broth), and the Turkish Meraklı? If so, where is the root coming from? Permalink 12:48 PM – 7 Sep 2019

@EmersonSpartz It’s pure laziness to think procrastination is caused by laziness. “Procrastination is the soul rebelling against entrapment.” -@nntaleb Permalink 10:11 AM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Dunya guzeli https://twitter.com/ahmadzada_ulkar/status/1170239184029782017   Permalink 7:11 AM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Brazilian cousins Rubens Taleb, Rogerio Taleb, & namesake Nassim Taleb came to the conference. pic.twitter.com/VgwkbXBZ9v Permalink 6:03 PM – 6 Sep 2019

@apas .@nntaleb-like vignette. pic.twitter.com/LOtKNASgk6 Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Sep 2019

@NavariniLorenzo Italian ambassador to Austria, Sergio Barbanti, is citing @nntaleb’s Black Swan for opening a seminar on diplomat Nigra in Vienna! I guess that the lindy effect is, slowly, working pic.twitter.com/7yUTE0zfQJ Permalink 11:03 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@DrGeneCallahan Over-optimizations: Sterilized kitchens Avoidance of all possible allergens with kids Weight machines that isolate a muscle Work schedules with no slack Economies with no downturns @nntaleb Permalink 9:34 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In all fairness from the 70s to the late 90s, NY was not good-but-crap, rather crap-but-great. Permalink 8:08 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@thackerpd 1 5 Switching gears: Brief lecture on how #Monsanto tracks and works to counter reporters such as @sfoucart @stephanehorel @tristanwaleckx @gaellombart Document shows #Monsanto strategy w/ help from PR firm @PublicisGroupe to counter #MonsantoPapers https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6382792-Monsanto-Response-to-LeMonde.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/TJzO8ddpT3″>  pic.twitter.com/TJzO8ddpT3 Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In the “CRAP BUT GOOD” category, there is an expression about Paolo Maluf: “Maluf steals but delivers” as he kept being reelected in spite of accusations of corruption. Electors preferred a good thief who happens to be a doer to an honest idiot IYI. https://twitter.com/JacopoBambino/status/1169927189128777728?s=20   Permalink 4:18 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Keep trying, blind idiots. https://twitter.com/techreview/status/1169921428969480192   Permalink 4:12 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Don’t judge a city by bureaucratic criteria like traffic jams, cleanliness, safety, etc., but by something deeper in the soul of the place. Jobim:“Morar em Nova Iorque é bom, mas é uma merda; morar no Rio é uma merda, mas é bom.” (“NY is good, but crap. Rio is crap but good”) Permalink 3:53 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A lot of (tasty) meat in the Republica Federativa do Brasil. pic.twitter.com/eDBlIoLfg3 Permalink 6:31 PM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Churrasco Brasileiro pic.twitter.com/jhwLDIMiWv Permalink 9:23 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Correction: Sao Paolo is pronounced like the French “saon”. Permalink 6:28 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sao Paulo Don’t be fooled by the orthography. “Sao” is pronounced “san”, Joao like the French “jean”, cançao like the French “canson”. pic.twitter.com/iC48aBofAr Permalink 6:16 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sidley Austin did nothing “illegal”. But smearing, targeting, mobbing, and lying are UNETHICAL practices. Unacceptable! Boycott/Blacklist Sidley Austin. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1169556720089214976   Permalink 3:31 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@adrianaleboss @BLebnene pic.twitter.com/H5mLTHRH6i Permalink 10:28 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@JoshHochschild This price is back. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1156891266220773377   Permalink 7:50 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@Mangan150 Why is Vegetable Oil in EVERYTHING? | The History and Corruption Behind Processed Oils https://youtu.be/OGLwGOvvWeg   Permalink 5:17 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If you have been employed by someone (Trump, Hillary, or Joey The Knife) as a personal assistant, it is yuugely unethical for you to ever divulge what you saw or heard in that capacity. (Except, of course, if you are subpoenaed, witnessed murder, were asked to commit a crime…) Permalink 3:19 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@ishirubi It’s September now. Usually, habitually I still buy notebooks and pens for myself. This year it’s different. Grabbed the book for a second round, reading preface, chills chills chills. Looks like I forgot a lot since January. Here we go! #rereadincerto #FooledbyRandomness pic.twitter.com/6sGwFyqXZE Permalink 12:59 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@Prof_BearB Following in the footsteps of Cirillo and Taleb (2016) and Clauset (2018), I hasten to note :-) Thank you, and thanks for the shout-out! https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1169333423380541443   Permalink 12:39 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If these finance “academics” could predict they would not be academics. The only thing they know is how to become academics. https://twitter.com/financialtimes/status/1169227337449312257   Permalink 6:49 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/BjRG2tVnuO Permalink 2:54 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If you lose money, it can be bad luck. It you blow up, it is certainly incompetence. #FooledbyRandomness Permalink 2:39 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Exactly. If you lose money, it can be bad luck. If you blow up, it is never bad luck. https://twitter.com/mightykaos41/status/1169061510339014656   Permalink 2:32 AM – 4 Sep 2019

Pedophrasty, BS Detection, IQ, White Supremacy, Weightlifting, Data Scientists, Behavioral Economics, SUNSTEIN, @TulsiGabbard, Plomin, Kazan, Matheux, Harari, Gelman, Quilletebeciles, Argentina

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The insidious racism of Mary Beard and the “diversity” operators Medium

@nntaleb A sample of the fights between instructors https://twitter.com/diomavro/status/1143888289763647488?s=21   Permalink 10:19 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Scholarships are open for the Oct 28 session, RWRI 12 http://Www.realworldrisk.com   PS @VergilDen is an instructor. https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/784063189457797120   Permalink 10:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@NClibbens @nntaleb Cost and time estimates overrun. Where I have I read about that problem? #incerto https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/1168853263900467200   Permalink 10:07 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@thousandairefx @nntaleb Rent seekers! https://twitter.com/JakeVeigelMD/status/1168918972055609344   Permalink 9:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@vvv_ilya A few months ago I’ve been traveling to CH considering the opening of a Swiss company. At the airport, I started reading Skin in the Game by @nntaleb and in a few mins met Mr. Taleb! Why I’m telling this story now? Because I just got YouHodler SA registered! It was a sign pic.twitter.com/THuxzDcmyx Permalink 8:09 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@GuruAnaerobic Tony Blair is a psychopath. He’s a psychopath with no shame. He’s a psychopath with no shame and no morals. He’s a greedy psychopath with no shame and no morals. He’s a greedy, lying, psychopath with no shame and no morals. https://twitter.com/JonnyGeller/status/1168543086756188160   Permalink 7:12 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 25 years of Calabrese lessons, ~ 15 lessons a year. pic.twitter.com/fTVZ6JyS9u Permalink 6:12 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/JB_Goldstein/status/1168846225342435330   Permalink 4:21 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@noemie_issan J’adore quand @nntaleb insulte en français. Cela ne manque pas de sel “Con fini” est une de mes insules preferées, avec “imbécile heureux” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1168845474406785035   Permalink 4:20 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The great news from this is that Malaysia is a Sunni majority country. Extremely encouraging. https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1168052854638206976   Permalink 4:20 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb EAST MED PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: Can “Yes” in Lebanese (mbala) is come from the Yes in Persian (بله) than the negation in Semitic: (“بلا”=”without”)? Permalink 9:33 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SITG is not just disincentives but, centrally, FILTERING. It bankrupts incompetent pple and remove them from the system so they stop harming others. https://twitter.com/BzhClair/status/1168541504710893568   Permalink 8:37 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Extreme Value Theory: How Pareto=> Fréchet, a simple demonstration. pic.twitter.com/zrkkykzL1z Permalink 7:20 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile it is all probabilistic so far. The Anatolian hypothesis is just much stronger. pic.twitter.com/3scUh6NXln Permalink 5:50 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 15 That Indo European languages were born in the Eurasian Pontic-Caspian steppes/Northern Caucasus. Much higher possibility they were born in East-Med, Anatolia. pic.twitter.com/avls6ZtvNS Permalink 5:08 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 4) The theory is that Aramaic entered Egypt with the Persians who used it as a lingua franca. But there were numerous pockets of Aramaic-writing Jews (hence other Levantines/Anatolians). But the DNA story makes everything else fragile! Permalink 4:17 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3) Something for master historical detective @Safaitic to help us with. Permalink 3:52 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 2) Also further coincidences: that the DNA of the mummies is turning out to be Levantine/Anatolian, not Egyptian. And Tell Amarina was in Akkadian. Permalink 3:47 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Things I learned this year: There is a thing called Egyptian Aramaic. I was wondering why Egyptian say “mayya” for water & other Levantinisms. pic.twitter.com/XYYcvIzaAD Permalink 3:16 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (“Zamat bi-risho” mush jéyé min rishé bass mnil seryéné “bi raso”, “rish”=ras.) Permalink 10:29 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Zamatna. Permalink 10:26 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@rorysutherland The reason this ergodicity thing is useful to marketers is that it explains why they often feel lonely: the managerial-financial aggregated snapshot view of a business lies at 90-degrees to the customer’s experience of a business over time. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1167775571268554752   Permalink 1:55 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Second version pic.twitter.com/G6JZ6DaGKF Permalink 1:51 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@vtchakarova The DNC would rather lose than nominate Tulsi Gabbard. ‘Gabbard actually has skin-in-the-game. She fought for — and earned — everything she’s achieved.’ cc @nntaleb #SITG #TulsiGabbard https://spectator.us/dnc-lose-nominate-tulsi-gabbard/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uejnoDPZNW”>  pic.twitter.com/uejnoDPZNW Permalink 1:29 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Is there a nonBS education outside of STEM, say in the humanities? Yes, classical languages + Heb/Aramaic/Ar/Sanscrit. French used to select on skills in Latin, not just because of access to texts. It’s because to be really good at Latin one must have read of lot of #Lindy stuff. Permalink 2:26 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Corrected finally. Thanks friends for the detection! pic.twitter.com/syjpKhIc02 Permalink 1:22 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Most influential story, heard when I was a beginning trader: Big trader M runs into a junior in the bathroom. M:”Whatyoudoing today?” “Just bought this bond, Broker A recommended it” M kept shouting “But he’s a f** broker, a f** broker” & fired the trader while in the bathroom. Permalink 12:40 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The #1 skill set is BS detection. Jaffer @Jaffer22915438 fughodaboudit because it is very, very natural to him. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1167119565106614280   Permalink 12:09 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Another 2 mistakes: limits ->0 not 1. Permalink 11:50 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Oops. I changed symbols from \eta to \epsilon when I turned the page. Corrected pic.twitter.com/NFCepkfFbU Permalink 11:36 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Probability du jour: Why you can’t use regression with fat tails. Showing the biases in psychobullshit studies, among others. Added a section to my next book. For error correction. pic.twitter.com/T54cUxjj6v Permalink 11:31 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@TerrenceMaldick Reading indiscriminately > everything. Best @nntaleb advice ever is: fuck school, just go to a library and “freestyle read” to ur heart’s content. Why? Because reading pre-ordained books makes u only enjoy reading a LITTLE. Freestyle reading teaches u to LOVE reading. Amen Permalink 7:31 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Autocrat meant, initially, free. https://twitter.com/stratiskarad/status/1167726291430326272   Permalink 2:47 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb New section in book: Thin Tails + Fat Tails = Fat Tails, no matter the ratios in the mixing. pic.twitter.com/S3YutONHJs Permalink 2:31 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Typo: they are power law distributed low exponent <2. It is easy to find massaging in the data. Permalink 1:37 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@NealPortenza @nntaleb of all the things you’ve taught me (fat tails, barbell distribution, risk etc), the one thing I remain most grateful for? Squid ink. Allora… pic.twitter.com/kfejEs7k7l Permalink 12:52 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@ggalexsava pic.twitter.com/z2FOmcOda9 Permalink 11:57 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man The accuracy of a forecast is measured only in profits. #blackswanman #theblackswanman @NateSilver538 @FiveThirtyEight @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @HillaryClinton #forecasterrors #elections pic.twitter.com/4xiVxiiHOC Permalink 8:08 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Apprenticeship: law was not really a university thing. You learn working with doers. #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/nhLa0fa6ie Permalink 5:40 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Rossy CDG. pic.twitter.com/GFTlqAVA3t Permalink 4:55 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In matters of politics (and love), “never” means “soon”. https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1167384624554749952   Permalink 4:33 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Squared residuals reveal the Winsorizing. They are a power low but someone did something funny to the data. pic.twitter.com/cShdc0KfSD Permalink 3:26 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@Raddish27 @nntaleb jealous much? #Croatia #ink #Vrbosca pic.twitter.com/OQ2TOogfrQ Permalink 1:43 PM – 29 Aug 2019

@BLebnene W hode kamen al3aab kruute bil Libnene: Le3beh 3a Krouteh, Zello ma T2ello, Min El Ghoul (ssuwar min Multiverse, Hamra). pic.twitter.com/GxbCpj3Bnd Permalink 8:15 AM – 29 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Here we go again. The replication crisis is now hitting IQ studies… Used the same approach as I did with fakescholar @sapinker, under recommendation by @yaneerbaryam: first use THEIR own data, then proceed to uncovering theoretical flaws. pic.twitter.com/kQQ3EwFcxh Permalink 1:28 AM – 29 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I find it EXTREMELY racist and offensive to group all non Northern Europeans, or people from non EU members as a single group of “minorities”, where one can substitute for another. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 11:43 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Mystery solved. They “manufactured” IQ scores in the NLS79, from “correlation”. Data invalid, only acceptable one is WLS. pic.twitter.com/IrQz0Dtc3B Permalink 10:57 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who (thankfully) don’t know what Jesuitic casuistry is, see below. (BTW my father and grandfather were educated by Jesuits; it has been my dream —for years — to find a Jesuit casuist for a good Twitter fight). pic.twitter.com/HCVSE4eM41 Permalink 1:51 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “Send me a photo?” There was a time my childhood, when Jesuit priests had 1) erudition, 2) scholarship, 3) knew science &, most of all, 4) When they engaged in *jesuit* casuistry, they were VASTLY more refined in argument: simply, they weren’t THAT easy to catch. Permalink 1:38 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Fake! St Augustine was a Med. He looked no different from any Sicilian or Maltese. Africa meant “Southern (West) Med”. https://twitter.com/JamesMartinSJ/status/1166701067595407361   Permalink 11:56 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Finally, the IQ question is far, far too simple! Someone incompetent massaged the data at some National Bureau in Washington & psychologists have been using it because it is more favorable to the IQ case. The NLS data is fake. See the blue, compared to Gaussian & Orange (WLS) pic.twitter.com/tVvZ4O9EFD Permalink 11:47 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Wiki explains Mutual Information more accurately. Key: it works under NONLINEARITIES. And it is additive. And it is concrete in a betting sense. And it is … ergodic! (Enters the Kelly criterion). pic.twitter.com/mDTYxHlG4F Permalink 7:16 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@thackerpd Exclusive: #Monsanto used former top DOJ official involved in Epstein deal to quash felony case by @adamzagorin & @schwellenbach via @YahooNews https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-monsanto-used-former-doj-lawyer-involved-in-epstein-case-to-quash-felony-charges-090028623.html   #Monsanto just can’t stay out of the news. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vzDYgfAWeA”>  pic.twitter.com/vzDYgfAWeA Permalink 6:08 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb >150 million “Europeans” are Meds. Meds are a different group. https://twitter.com/Philosophy_Net/status/1166677480305909760?s=20   Permalink 4:51 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The term “white supremacy” is a terrible misnomer; 1) white is indicative of purity not color & 2) does not map to what is called “white” (Caucasian/Western Eurasian) or light skinned (many Asians are light skinned), only to NorthWestern Europe. Best term as replacement: Permalink 4:25 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Also, from Zakorsky’s data, turns out that I was correct (in spite of blog posts by incompetent “data scientists”): Correlation is much lower for higher income. Actually not existent. pic.twitter.com/USGKIQHcDY Permalink 4:03 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@arrington “If your anger decreases with time, you did injustice; if it increases you suffered injustice” – @nntaleb Permalink 6:26 PM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Now entropy methods, Mutual Information, i.e. “how much does someone’s IQ tell you about his/her wealth or income?” or “how much more can you bet on Wealth knowing IQ or vice versa). Answer: “zero”. pic.twitter.com/aw5JeeDoXq Permalink 5:26 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb On the NY-Continent flight, only 6-7 h.: people eat dinner, then 4 hours later, are served breakfast “so they get strength”. You even have to request explicitly that they do NOT wake you up for breakfast. Permalink 3:41 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb #Antifragile https://twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1166093473910415360   Permalink 3:32 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In real weightlifting (no-machines), you largely work out your neural system. It requires yuuuge concentration to push a piece of metal over your head. & it is exhilarating, like a street fight. Low-intensity “routines” on gym treadmills dull your mind, turn you into an academic Permalink 2:30 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I am intolerant of BS vendors, even when they are right. And always tolerant of scholars, even when they are wrong. Permalink 1:35 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Looked at the NLS used by Zagorsky, thanks to Beyon Miloyan. Data is invalid, though results similar to ones from WLS. IQ is truncated, income is cooked up. People in Finance learn how to ferret out statistical cooking in <9 minutes of examination. pic.twitter.com/oRAYJM616p Permalink 1:23 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And the jacknife shows my data is clean. pic.twitter.com/dScs8mKiat Permalink 4:01 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And minutes later, Donaldo got into negotiation mode! https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1166007859064266755?s=20   Permalink 3:20 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK I did my OWN data, using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Got R^2 of .01 and .02. Yes, .01. Replicates results by @UntergrundmannG Psychologists, anything I am missing? Any pbm with database? Otherwise the IQ-Income statements are total fraud, I mean a monumental fraud. pic.twitter.com/4bQEeoeyb6 Permalink 2:56 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK I did my OWN data, using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Got R^2 of .01 and .02. Yes, .01. Replicates results by @UntergrundmannG Psychologists, anything I am missing? Any pbm with database? Otherwise the IQ-Income statements are total fraud, I mean a monumental fraud. pic.twitter.com/4bQEeoeyb6 Permalink 2:56 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@ahshoja Is @realDonaldTrump getting advice from @nntaleb or reading @nntalebbot? https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864?s=21   Permalink 1:15 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@NonMeek .@otrasenda_AC @trishankkarthik @nntaleb @Vasilis48814362 Finally found the time to finish what I promised: “Oliver & Trishank vs Skinny IYI Zombies [#ZIYI].” My interpretation I hope you like it. pic.twitter.com/6ymiRNUxuG Permalink 9:45 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “Contra the prevailing belief, “success” isn’t being on top of a hierarchy, it is standing outside all hierarchies.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 9:36 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The best so far! Incentives for peace not tawk! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864   Permalink 7:30 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @realDonaldTrump @POTUS #peace #Vienna #Iran #Hayek #Popper #Freud pic.twitter.com/E7WPHX4S83 Permalink 7:16 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Kamén la nfham 3a ba3dan: manna jéyin la n7ké bi shi illa l-lgha. Ma fi 3ila2a bi shghlé l téné (w ktbé). https://twitter.com/BLebnene/status/1165875395666874369   Permalink 6:12 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Now thanks to raw data, I am uncovering something >> more sinister in IQ research. When the slope is + but R^2 is terrible they only show the slope. When R^2 is high but the slope is ~0, they show R^2. When both are bad, they truncate the data, which increases R^2. Permalink 5:55 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1165945723587895297?s=20   Permalink 5:22 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Just to confirm, the thread by a few IQ “data scientists” (who don’t understand R^2) nitpicking my piece is BS. All noise. https://twitter.com/UntergrundmannG/status/1165925167798710272?s=20   Permalink 5:21 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who think behavioral economics has been “helpful” (outside consulting fees), some news. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1164138535919718400?s=20   Permalink 3:49 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb To express the trade-off from iatrogenics in a simple heuristic: Take no medicine that does not make you live longer. #antifragile Permalink 3:45 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Status is zero-sum game. Money is not in free economies. https://twitter.com/naval/status/1165834035601362945   Permalink 12:46 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@MulusewGerb Our 3rd Scientific colloquium titled ‘Antifragile and health care system in Ethiopia’ will be held in October. The idea is based on seminal work of @nntaleb and our speaker will b @MillaAugestine. @Elias_Yesuf @LegeseDadi @ateklu72 #missitnot #antifragile #robustness Permalink 11:47 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Tabula rasa. Let us say someone zapped all books and papers published since 1900 in psychology. Everything. Would it carry the smallest negative impact on your life? Permalink 3:50 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie Today’s blog -> Explaining some statistical ideas from Nassim Taleb to kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/explaining-some-statistical-ideas-from-nassim-taleb-to-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 2:37 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb SUNSTEIN, my model for the IYI, w/the rigor of an artichoke. Master BS busting applied statistician Andrew Gelman has been dunking on him. At the bottom, Sunstein believes research in psychology should be like a business franchise, to defend by all means. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/08/24/more-on-why-cass-sunstein-should-be-thanking-not-smearing-people-who-ask-for-replications/   Permalink 12:30 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 3)Jewish Aramaic:ambiguous שהד or הדס but no apparent link witness = martyr as in Greek. So must be a Christian tradition; supicion that Greek => Christian Aramaic, not reverse. Now entered Arabic شهيد via Syriac. Note “Kornet L Sawda” is corruption of Kornet Shhodé. pic.twitter.com/EDx7Opjx3b Permalink 12:21 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “the best horses lose when they compete with slower ones, and win against better rivals.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2) Same in Christian Aramaic: Shhoda=witness and martyr, from the Greek version. Looking for the Jewish/Babylonian Aramaic use. https://twitter.com/aldertrack/status/1165690600504659970?s=20   Permalink 11:29 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Retranslated; “For the Egyptians, no one illiterate can be a witness”. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1165687785790926848   Permalink 11:12 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The statements: + > 95% of lethal diseases have a genetic etiology. + > 95% of deaths from disease are environmental. are not incompatible. @PZalloua explained that real world #SITG disciplines (Medicine) don’t take the works of “evolutionary”/DNA (pple a la Plomin) v. seriously. Permalink 10:24 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie Explaining some statistical ideas from Nassim Taleb to kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/explaining-some-statistical-ideas-from-nassim-taleb-to-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 8:08 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb At the geneticist @PZalloua’s place in Marounistan. Not a single Byzantine church in the entire zone! Rumophobic but gorgeous scenery. pic.twitter.com/1peIVF9mzA Permalink 6:10 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Fundamental Tail Asymmetry: an illustration using the drop in MERVAL, of how you can accept, never really reject fat tails unless you have some physical law bounding deviations. Adding to the book. [It is Popperian falsification applied to inference] pic.twitter.com/9vB1fTYrjL Permalink 3:55 PM – 24 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Usually, when I go after BS vendors on Twitter, they gain followers. Not here. Need a new BS-vending target both as public service & to make my journey between the republics of Tatarstan & Northern Phoenicia more entertaining. Any suggestion? https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1165002900155850753   Permalink 7:55 AM – 24 Aug 2019

@GaricMoran 1000 PHD’s in economics went to Jackson Hole to figure out how to fix the world economy; yet, not one pointed out the historical fact that the USA grew twice as fast under a Gold standard when 0 PHD’s in economics set interest rates and instead free market capitalism set rates! Permalink 5:13 PM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Orthodox church next to a mosque in Kazan’s Kremlin. pic.twitter.com/m5pY6CAo6e Permalink 9:48 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb They are still looking for holes in my IQ is nonsense argument. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 8:34 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “Every dollar made by a former politician or civil servant thanks to the fame and connections imparted by the office belongs to the taxpayer. ” PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/evankirstel/status/1164575263293956096   Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@bulat_abdrkhmnv @nntaleb посетил Казань и @WorldSkillsKZN и поделился своим видением взгляда в будущее pic.twitter.com/03i5qkkR5g Permalink 12:57 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@TimurShagivalee Wealth comes from technical skills, not from universities Благосостояние происходит из технических навыков, а не из университетов @nntaleb #WorldSkillsKazan2019 100%! pic.twitter.com/BybvnJDRMG Permalink 12:14 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 PM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Olympiads of techné (vs epistemé): no BS real world skills vs college w/humanities lecktshurers. pic.twitter.com/TvKrafX5PH Permalink 11:15 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb News from Kazan: Russians are opening a new university with an expiration date based on comment in #Antifragile. Starts in 2020, ends in 2035. May restart then under a new adaptive program. #worldskills https://2035.university   Permalink 9:44 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard “As president I’ll end the failed war on drugs, legalize marijuana, end cash bail, and ban private prisons and bring about real criminal justice reform. I’ll crack down on the overreaching intel agencies and big tech monopolies who threaten our civil liberties and free speech.” pic.twitter.com/oDMVxbmFbJ Permalink 6:35 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb By policy, if my BS detector makes me go after someone very hard, it is BECAUSE I know his/her work. For instance, I read everything from Pinker. Psychs are idiots. It is almost never the reverse. pic.twitter.com/Mt3glSucVO Permalink 5:15 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Looked at Plomin’s work. 1-Knows 0 abt correlation (misses on linearity, transitivity, etc.) 2-Knows 0 abt error propagation & dimensionality, basically multivariate probability. 3-Grossly overestimates heredity (via pairwise twin studies) 4-Doesn’t get IQ score !=intelligence https://twitter.com/WiringTheBrain/status/1164438700891213824   Permalink 4:57 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@JoostvanderLeij You measure xG for 10K players, then count their goals scored. 2000 of them are dead. Dead players score 0 on xG and 0 on goals. The rest have the xG uncorrelated to the goals. What is the spurious correlation xG/goals? Answer: 37% Adapted from @nntaleb https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 1:23 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan. Permalink 9:36 PM – 21 Aug 2019

@financequant Anyone who had attended the Real World Risk Institute #RWRI seminar led by @nntaleb et al. would already know this. The detailed example we give is a simple discrete recursion that reproduces the fractal structure of the human lung. 1/2 https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1164288469545316353   Permalink 3:18 PM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb People aren’t getting my point. Nothing to do with causation. Correlation requires linearity, does’nt allow subsampling and is very nonlinear. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 9:31 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@RandPaul IT SHOULD BE GETTING AUDITED @realDonaldTrump! https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1164174364994080768   Permalink 8:28 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I am getting tired of pple lecturing me on “Italian” expressions. “Gabish” is to capisci what “gabagool” is to capicola, and “avangool” to … Permalink 8:23 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@Marvin_3 This has nothing to do with causation. Can you please stop making @nntaleb points for him, sounding like a PARROT. https://www.dropbox.com/s/18pjy7gmz0hl6q7/Correlation.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 6:39 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ignore. The article has been generalized by eugenists to genetics & heritability. All it can scientifically confirm is the trivial notion that some people are betters than others given same practice in a specific environment. You can’t get to DNA without yuuuge BS. https://twitter.com/mcowartlaw/status/1164148720109268992   Permalink 5:30 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb It is the fundamental metrics that social scientists don’t seem to get but talk abt like PARROTS. What is correlation? It’s the average of 2 normalized variables MULTIPLIED by one another. In some NARROW circumstances it expresses a statistical association. Which ones? Permalink 5:20 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb How Behavioral Economics is Dangerous BS. Very dangerous. pic.twitter.com/nEXvAudTj1 Permalink 4:33 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb India, please stay away from Cass Sunstein. He is the person behind my original IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiot) article. https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   https://twitter.com/BMGFIndia/status/1164109205600526338   Permalink 4:15 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@EricRyderMorgan Didn’t expect to find trail running advocacy in Antifragile @nntaleb ! https://twitter.com/Choosing2Thrive/status/1164009447964008449   Permalink 8:03 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/vRBlp3Jua3 Permalink 3:06 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Friends, this is the first draft of my forward for Cippola’s Basic Laws of Stupidity. For comments. Thanks. pic.twitter.com/1QtL00EtoB Permalink 2:51 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Edit: 1830. Permalink 12:11 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb A Must! + Arithmetic didn’t initially develop for scientists, but for traders/accountants + Before 1930 Mathematics was about the real world. Then it got concerned with abstraction + Texts hide experiments in math leading to theorems. Ramanujan did experimental math. Even Euler. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1159131413511311361   Permalink 11:43 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@SJosephBurns True wealth consists in: Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Absence of envy Good appetite Muscle strength Physical energy Frequent laughs No meals alone No gym classes Some physical labor No meeting rooms Periodic surprises – @nntaleb Permalink 9:31 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2030s? https://twitter.com/Decafquest/status/1163558762575273984   Permalink 8:51 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I spent my life hearing economists telling me “nothing new; we know about convexity”; then they write an rquation missing the fact that a function of an average can’t be an average of functions. Same with fat tails. https://twitter.com/stratiskarad/status/1163832062220148736   Permalink 8:20 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@buchmanster Oh cool another picture of a young @nntaleb from when he traded chicken futures https://twitter.com/kareem_carr/status/1163551872457805825   Permalink 8:01 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@ara_anderson Today’s @mathonco research in progress is a double act from @mathoncbro @StroblMAR on The (anti-)fragility of adaptive therapy! Work inspired by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/FPbAbhy7FE – at Vincent A. Stabile Research Building Permalink 7:15 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I went after Fannie-Mae in 2003 https://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/07/business/fannie-mae-s-loss-risk-is-larger-computer-models-show.html   Permalink 5:52 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont) I am much stronger than I was at 26. I know a lot more than I did at 26, after eliminating news, only #Lindy books. I speak more languages than I did at 26. I am more independent than I was at 26. but, mostly I made so many mistakes I have more scars than I had at 26. pic.twitter.com/kw1sraiM8p Permalink 5:50 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANTIFRAGILE https://www.parcodellavaldorcia.com/calendar-event/forme-nel-verde-2019-antifragile-inaugurazione-27-luglio/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7MJ9qNML8S”>  pic.twitter.com/7MJ9qNML8S Permalink 4:54 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Secrets of longevity: bad birth records. Les secrets des 5 régions championnes de la longévité https://w.lpnt.fr/2330574t   Permalink 2:46 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor.” – Nassim Taleb #yoga Permalink 2:34 PM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Long time ago, an option trader without facial hair, deadlifts & a twitter account. pic.twitter.com/T49rJLK0GT Permalink 1:12 PM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Simple 1D problem. Assume 25 siblings have a genetic predisposition to Type 2 diabetes. In a hunter gatherer envir, they will show no correlations w/r to diseases. Move them to Kansas city => high correlation, hence “genetic determinism”. Now think how this blows up in higher D. Permalink 11:23 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (For the stickler:) matheux= “matheux mais pas mathematicien” Permalink 10:56 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nabilshadman Plausible scenario in jobs without skin in the game. @nntaleb would probably agree. pic.twitter.com/jVKmVbcxMh Permalink 7:44 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Twin studies vastly overestimate heredity: they yield different results from field studies. Reason: they fail to get 2nd order effects & complex interactions, dominant under convexity. Plomin’s studies for IQ are even worse; yuuge flaws mathematically. https://www.independentsciencenews.org/health/the-great-dna-data-deficit/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/NVi7LU5LfM”>  pic.twitter.com/NVi7LU5LfM Permalink 5:59 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Scholar with #skininthegame https://twitter.com/moudhy/status/1163104799665139718   Permalink 5:40 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb *going into more and more abstract objects.* Permalink 7:25 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 3/ Real mathematicians are obsessed with abstraction, going into more and more abstract. “Matheux” like contact and feedback with the concrete. During the Soviet era, mathematicians were forced to prove *some* connection to things, how they were helping the building of the USSR Permalink 7:00 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@VergilDen “Bullshit is convex to the number of variables you have.” #RWRI Permalink 2:54 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1075785890935513088?s=20   Permalink 2:48 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Make sure you read this twice. Explain the charlatanism in Plomin’s book. Some pple have know for years that higher dimensions cancel predictability (curse of dim). Now they are finally figuring it out in genetics and neuroscience. https://www.quantamagazine.org/new-turmoil-over-predicting-the-effects-of-genes-20190423/   Permalink 2:47 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2/ I learned from a long career in math finance to never hire mathematicians (PhD in math) to solve math problems or toy with actual equations. You get a better payoff with a “matheux” who studied (undergrad) electrical engineering in India, Russia, Lebanon, or Brazil. Permalink 1:55 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 1/ The French have a distinction mathematician vs. “matheux”. + The mathematicia(e)n is like someone who composes music; doesn’t have to perform, be good w/instruments. Invents math. + The matheux is someone who plays an instrument; can be a virtuoso but doesn’t compose music. Permalink 1:45 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68   https://twitter.com/marcos_moret/status/1163174948443164672   Permalink 1:11 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Real World Risk Institute We’re opening full and partial scholarships for #RWRI 12. October 28 in NYC. http://www.RealWorldRisk.com   https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1163150438121824256   Permalink 11:26 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it: governance declines with scale. Some places more than others. The dream of a “strong nation” that plays geopolitics instead of focusing on law, to facilitate services & commerce is a Baathist disease. Permalink 7:06 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I block anyone who cites Harari as a reference for anything. Worse than Pinker. Gabish? Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR If you introduce unbiased noise in birth records, (keeping average life expectancy the same), you yuuuugely increase the number of fake centenarians. Why? Because the tail doesn’t care about the average as much as the imprecision! https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1   Permalink 6:18 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Michael Gove is correct. I was told that the movie is an excellent subtitute for the book. https://twitter.com/thinkdefence/status/1163065296745353222   Permalink 5:47 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@OtisManousakos I’m starting to empathise with @nntaleb in the vicious way he goes after people. Fuck niceties. The people who think fake meat will just get invented sans consequences are either naive ideologues or sociopaths who think it’s fun to tamper with this billions old ecosystem. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162857527358476289   Permalink 5:20 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb P-Hacking and the distribution of p-values, a 3 year old result still not understood by social “scientists”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0   Permalink 4:24 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Please stop the “correlation is not causation” mantra. It’s worse: correlation is not correlation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&t=60s   Permalink 4:03 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard We’re at 162,648! Let’s surprise Tulsi when she gets back from National Guard active duty on August 26 by reaching 170,000! Let’s show her how much grassroots support there truly is for her and for her message of peace and prosperity for all! —TeamTulsi #TULSI2020 Permalink 4:51 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb https://math.stackexchange.com/q/3326461/88078?stw=2   Permalink 3:54 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There are three types of people. 1) Those who say eliminating mosquitoes is a great thing, book a trip to Alaska/Siberia. 2) Those who reflect, & look at second order effects, particularly when those exist: the cause of the Great Famine under Mao. 3) Those who get convexity. Permalink 3:43 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb So many have sent me this tweet; here is my answer. Remember transfats? And another 0000s of these “obviously” safe thingies? I am really scared to live in a society in which people take @sapinker seriously. On anything. That’s all I have to say. pic.twitter.com/PBEs5vMVz6 Permalink 3:34 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@engler_j What a lovely and accurate summary of my work! by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/IU6seSTtJa Permalink 2:27 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My Principia Politica is not out yet. Yet its terminology is having some impact! pic.twitter.com/GMxlIGzxAl Permalink 9:33 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb This is what people don’t get: smaller states don’t have minorities and majority rules eradicating them. Too much 19th century thinking. Actually France wanted Germany to be fragmented in 1945; they thought a Federation would be “weak”. https://twitter.com/BaalTheGreat/status/1162703300141244416?s=20   Permalink 9:19 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@DrGeneCallahan The Mule: Clint Eastwood becomes cartel’s top drug deliverer by following haphazard schedule. But new guy takes over and makes him follow exact route and timetable. Immediately caught! Over-optimization leads to disaster! @nntaleb Permalink 6:36 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@spyrosmakrid Dr. Sagner @MichaelSagnerMD and I are finalizing a paper on Uncertainty in Medicine, illustrated by the following two studies on treating mild HBP: One showing benefits and the other harm and a third discovering 396 medical reversals. How can lay people can deal with uncertainty? pic.twitter.com/QfwJpOSY25 Permalink 6:33 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Only #Localism works. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   Permalink 5:42 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ireland, Czeck Rep., Slovakia, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Cyprus… People get along better as neighbors than as roommates. Time for Syrians to understand the large Nation-State with “grandeur” & prestige has failed them, destroyed minorities. Small is beautiful. Permalink 5:07 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, incompetence wins over conspiracy. Always assume incompetence first. (There still may be some conspiracy.) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-16/epstein-died-of-suicide-by-hanging-medical-examiner-says?srnd=premium   Permalink 4:48 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Syria should understand the notion of cutting the cancer & consider some partition East/West (currently taboo). You cannot spend the next decades taking then retaking Jihadi areas. ما حدا قسم و ندم! @EHSANI22 https://twitter.com/TheArabSource/status/1162588630654869505   Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb When you elect a bureaucrat to the presidency, you end up with someone who likes complicating your life with bureaucratic rules. When you elect a real estate dealmaker, you end up with someone who likes to do real-estate deals. Alas, a trade-off. But beats wars. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1162213923673657351   Permalink 4:50 PM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “Primitive societies are largely free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, dental cavities, economic theories, lounge music, and other modern ailments.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And ignore statements about “math geniuses with High IQ”. 1- how many high IQ can do math? 2- Ramanujan, Groethendieck, Mandelbrot were horrrrrrrible at standardized tests… has a mystical link to math… Permalink 8:34 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Reread and you will find it. Permalink 8:08 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb A metric that ONLY detects “below average” will show 80% correlation with performance. (corrected typos) pic.twitter.com/5N0K0mCDpP Permalink 7:51 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@vtchakarova ‘Skin in the Game’ and ‘Fooled by Randomness’ by @nntaleb in Sofia, Bulgaria. pic.twitter.com/TKrYmnGtWq Permalink 7:50 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR A clearer presentation showing how a metric for disease can falsely masquerade as a metric for performance because “correlation” is not appropriate (and should NEVER be used) under nonlinearity. Something the Quillettebeciles don’t get. pic.twitter.com/whcdbdcO2M Permalink 7:39 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@garyruskin #Monsanto acts like it has a lot to hide. It had a 20-page #PR plan on how to “minimize impact of” and “minimize media coverage and publicity of” @careygillam’s book Whitewash, about Monsanto, #glyphosate and #Roundup. http://bit.ly/2Kz7oko   Permalink 3:01 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile I’ve blocked trolls on both sides. https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/1162112002271170560   Permalink 2:39 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Charles Murray is considered a Galileo of the racisticists, someone who provides scientific truths. He is just an intellectual fraud. These mistakes are on a SINGLE page in his book. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R3VL4SLVS56LB9/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=006019247X   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vPm0tIyLNS”>  pic.twitter.com/vPm0tIyLNS Permalink 1:56 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman is the #1 BS buster in social science. https://twitter.com/Marvin_3/status/1162074581554872321   Permalink 12:03 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Review on Amazon. If you are going to be a BS vendor, make sure to not combine it with “race realism” and eugenics. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R3VL4SLVS56LB9/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=006019247X   Permalink 9:47 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@RyanHoliday “You are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept.” Nassim Taleb Permalink 8:00 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You are wasting time arguing about universal computation/Touring machines with the Quilletebeciles neonazis who interpretet as a blank slate argument. The Quilettebeciles don’t even get that you may bolster their argument since in practice there is a yuuge diff betw processors! Permalink 7:21 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ignore journos: they can’t property scale moves, put them in perspective. The SP500 is still up >12% on the year. #SkinintheGame: Have to reveal I’ve been short HLF for more than a year. Fear of missing an opportunity, just in case Ackman turns out to be ultimately right. Permalink 6:20 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@ArtOrthodox Dormition of the Theotokos #DormitionoftheTheotokos #JesusChrist #Theotokos #MotherofGod #Saints #byzantineorthodoxart #byzantine #icons #paintings #art #history #artwork #artworks pic.twitter.com/4npa1czwc7 Permalink 4:19 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@byzantinepower Aspirations of this account: – To extol the spiritual power of Orthodoxy & our ability to create Byz 2.0 Tendencies: – Venice bashing – HRE bashing – mocking idiots – foodpoasting Permalink 3:41 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “The problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists than books on birds written by birds and books on ornithologists written by birds” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@sf_LPSP You misunderstand and underestimate Taleb if you think this is any kind of outlierish or burdensome “axe to grind”, or even particularly personal. Taleb’s bread and butter- or rather olive oil- is lopping down logs of bullshit, and the axe is sharp for all comers. Permalink 4:09 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Very safe: I stopped in 2010 having dinners with social scientists. https://twitter.com/profmarkreed/status/1161638008837279745   Permalink 1:54 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2) You can be fooled by people, and you can be fooled by fields. For instance I was fooled by behavioral economics… pic.twitter.com/Fuh5od8bjB Permalink 11:40 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Why universality trumps IQ by @trishankkarthik https://link.medium.com/qi3xFAYD4Y   Permalink 10:57 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Classifying psychology as “science” reminds me of the Reagan Administration’s classification of Ketchup in school cafeterias as “vegetable”. We need to declassify. Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Asymmetry of BS detector: Friends, there have been many situations where I thought someone was solid, then realized I was mistaken as he turned out to be a bullshitter (e.g. NateS,PT,SP…) Can’t find reverse mistake: pple I thought were bullshitters but turned out to be solid. Permalink 7:45 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, Data. Lesson from Argentina: a distribution can fool you showing thinner tails, never the reverse! Classical Black Swan Problemo See Chapter 2 https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm”>  pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm Permalink 4:28 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, Data. Lesson from Argentina: a distribution can fool you showing thinner tails, never the reverse! Classical Black Swan Problemo See Chapter 2 https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm”>  pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm Permalink 4:28 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Anyone saying 17 sigmas about Argentina has a problem. pic.twitter.com/n8EryQDePU Permalink 3:17 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@OtisManousakos And basically read everything from @nntaleb – His sometimes excessive hostility toward obnoxious academia aside, it’s hard for me to disparage him as he reminds me of every fucking Greek uncle I loved. When that phenotype smells bullshit, they tend to be brutal…and hilarious. Permalink 2:29 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Dear @WolframResearch, what’s the symbol for the MERVAL? Trying to get data …for obvious reasons. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/XqCpKfLkkR Permalink 1:51 PM – 13 Aug 2019

@gmax1mum Am I the only one that wants a full volume expansion of this section of Skin in the Game? @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/Gg9LjHi9NS Permalink 1:39 PM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You should prevent Classic Liberalism from being exploited by the eugenists-“race realists” using it from cover for the Sinister agenda, particularly when they use science. Expurgate. Be tough. Liberty doesn’t entail genetic ranking. https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1161283291137368064   Permalink 9:32 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@Firefly_fan Evolution of “Incerto” by @nntaleb (image 1 and 2). Some “affective” anecdote: the smell of black & golden version is very appealling for my hedonic perspective. It seems alive pic.twitter.com/pEB4vwMDTv Permalink 9:26 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Erudition is whatever is not academic in its acquisition and dispensation. In other words, lively, playful, useful, and nonnerdy. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1161290791991611392   Permalink 8:01 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@ektrit Explaining how Christianity spread when 99.9% of people were illiterate, it comes to mind that Taleb @nntaleb cannot be understood unless Erudition is understood. Permalink 7:57 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What does a “(basic) law” mean in economics? Some “laws” seem to be empirical, others normative, some deduced from some arbitrary “principle”, a few pulled out of a hat. Permalink 7:06 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@thebigboulard Via Negativa et Antifragile appliqués à l’IT et à la Transformation digitale http://bit.ly/31KGMD1   via @lemagit @philipducellier @nntaleb Permalink 2:55 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Things are spiraling downward much, much faster than I thought. (This deleted tweet by Lehman Brothers was verified on Google cache; I thought it was a spoof). Next target? Some monstrous BS vending outfit I haven’t targeted yet. pic.twitter.com/OpWkJWAfeX Permalink 6:28 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@normonics No. Life is not a game. A game has explicit rules, constraints, win-states. Life does not. At best, implicit ones, but even then not static, not a given. The IQ obsessed have mistaken their little contrived game world with big messy reality. https://twitter.com/garettjones/status/1161047922793828352   Permalink 4:01 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@MKM_Abdul Meanwhile, a Black Swan quietly landed on Argentina’s stock market with a 48% one-day drop. https://twitter.com/business/status/1161010919008288769   Permalink 2:29 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Voila! Merci bien. pic.twitter.com/FpJv1WWhE9 Permalink 12:35 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Cipolla’s def. + stupid: someone who inflicts costs on others while not bringing benefits to himself/herself, even possibly incurring great costs. + bandit: inflicts costs on others but at some benefits to himself/herself. The stupid is vaaaaastly more dangerous than the bandit. Permalink 12:05 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/economie/les-etats-unis-doivent-adapter-leur-dispositif-antitrust-aux-geants-d-internet-20190811   (Je n’arrive pas a acheter l’article) Permalink 11:48 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There are always some subtle differences between a book and the corresponding film, owing to the requirements of the medium. https://twitter.com/IMAO_/status/1160658967825178624   Permalink 10:38 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In other words: Cipolla’s 2nd Law: there is a ratio \sigma of stupid people, in all professions/groups/periods. My Q: is it like econ. inequality, same ratio, but different people? If you came back in 10 y, \sigma has new people (i.e ergodic). Does the stupid survive in group? Permalink 10:22 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Cipolla Permalink 10:00 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Writing a foreword to The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity by Cippola: You always underestimate for any time/profession # of incompetent pple. Law: No matter how incompetent an editor is, there will be a pool of readers even more stupid who won’t notice. Q: is stupidity ergodic? https://twitter.com/sobu_18/status/1160946236767264768   Permalink 9:56 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@DonkeyJawPosse Walking via ⁦@nntaleb⁩ pic.twitter.com/dB5VuKgx9n Permalink 6:08 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You hit on something: collective intelligence (groups) is orthogonal to individual ones because of scale transformation. Permalink 5:19 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@MarekADochnal @nntaleb never disappoints in fighting BS in its every living form. But even he isn’t iPhone-proof: see Murrat in his twit: the hybrid of Murray and Marshal Murat, King of Naples Permalink 4:21 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Murray also manages to BS about mathematics. A scholar! pic.twitter.com/loJG4ctyym Permalink 3:50 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Methods of the loci. If you want to remember math stuff, carry a durable physical notebook with standard theorems/graphs. You will associate the equation with a physical page. Permalink 3:07 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There is a book by the Russian psychologist Luria about a prodigy who could remember tons. He mentally used maps 2D ->3D where each object to remember would be placed. When I look at a physical book in my library, I remember the contents! Even more when I hold it in my hands. Permalink 2:43 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Harder to remember stuff read on a screen. Needs 1 more dimension. https://twitter.com/jangold_/status/1160836414797492224   Permalink 2:23 AM – 12 Aug 2019