Nassim Taleb & Naval Ravikant at BlockCon 2018 – Transcript | Michael Malo

@nntaleb Almost 6,000 votes. 54% – 46% https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1063475218038079488   Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Well, looks like investors in http://Optionsellers.com   are liable for more losses than they put in. Also the argument 76% options expire worthless by the 2 charlatans. With Niederhoffer the losses were up to 400% of funds; Refco hid the additional losses in fake accounting. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/NZ5Hm89yah”>  pic.twitter.com/NZ5Hm89yah Permalink 9:02 AM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The megafragility of the country currently known as Saudi Arabia: it is short monstrous amounts of out of the money puts on oil. Just imagine the devastation if oil hits $45, $30, $20, …$10. https://twitter.com/umeshranglani/status/1063701959922745345   Permalink 4:11 AM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb (I mean tail option selling. You can sell volatility in the body and buy the tails with finite losses, locally concave globally convex. Butterflies plus strangles/Christmas trees.) Permalink 2:21 AM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb No option seller survives … Selling is nonergodic. https://twitter.com/umeshranglani/status/1063701959922745345   Permalink 11:56 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A toast to the future Republic(s) of Najd, Hijaz, and Sharqiyya!!! https://www.wsj.com/articles/cia-concludes-saudi-journalist-was-killed-on-the-crown-princes-order-1542412388   via @WSJ Permalink 4:08 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb This is dishonorable, even for criminal organizations. Saudi regime executes pple following orders. Now no more witness… This break a mafia honor rule. https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1063484345535492096   From now on, “Saudi Regime” in place of “Saudi Barbaria” owing to decent pple in Najd/Hijaz/Eastern Permalink 2:31 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb So Mr @aubreyclayton, calling a paper “garbage” and posing for a hotshot in probability is nice but your interpretation is … garbage. Read, think, then react. pic.twitter.com/WctHNjwUfA Permalink 1:25 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Mr @aubreyclayton, you didn’t read the paper, do the math. See the note eliminating your confusion. The convergence would then be at 10/90, as the upper bound is the poll. The pull to 50% is because people make 90% odds off polls at .52%. https://twitter.com/aubreyclayton/status/1063538489126465536   Permalink 1:19 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My developing heuristic is that a respectable calorie-neutral Flaneuring requires: + In Milan/Bologna/Turin, >18,000 steps (w/desert), + In Rome/Naples/Palermo, >15000 + In New York, > 14,000 + in Tokyo, > 5,000 (portions are small!) pic.twitter.com/kyX6OpifmZ Permalink 9:34 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@amconmag “Paul noted that Saudi Arabia’s role in the Middle East was overall a destructive one. Riyadh, he noted, has spent $100 billion exporting extreme Wahabbist Islam to places as far away as Indonesia and funding madrassas that teach hatred” in other nations. https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/rand-paul-saudi-arabia-is-number-one-at-spreading-terror-yemen-iran-russia/   Permalink 9:00 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb So this week, while flaneuring in Italy, I was twitter mobbed by + Saudi twitter bots & trolls, & +Klueless Nate’s (@NateSilver538) followers (he has 3 Mil). Silver is nervous for his reputation (losses $6m annually). Who is more stupid? Permalink 8:53 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Ketchum in court documents (the Monsanto papers) https://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/919748359564312577   Permalink 8:24 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Pedophrasty: use of children in the Ketchum signature. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 8:23 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Ketchum ran the smear campaigns on behalf of Monsanto. Including yours truly. They asked me for a lecture for a yuuuge banking convention. Note the virtue signaling in the signature. pic.twitter.com/177LW5jayG Permalink 8:19 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Comparative study of: 1) Sea urchins (spaghetti) 2) Bottarga (tagliolini) pic.twitter.com/n4PZf89Cub Permalink 4:53 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Pandemics are fat tailed (usually) https://youtu.be/9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 3:42 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Yes but bacteria can be more lethal. Permalink 2:20 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Get ready for the next one. Either antibiotic resistant made in hospitals or something multiplicative that travels on British Air … Cc: @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/philipcball/status/1063362984586723328   Permalink 2:16 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Why is Nate Silver @NateSilver538 misrepresenting my book? in bad faith? https://twitter.com/darius1296/status/1063198970808283136?s=21   Permalink 2:48 PM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My Milanese friends who also “have friends” making sure it is a “low risk experience”… pic.twitter.com/Wdbu41XXhq Permalink 2:36 PM – 15 Nov 2018

@Valentin_Decker > Pourquoi le conflit israélo-palestinien dure t-il depuis aussi longtemps ? > Pourquoi le Pape est-il en réalité un athée ? > Pourquoi la minorité intolérante l’emporte sur la majorité flexible ? Mon résumé de l’excellent “Jouer sa peau” de @nntaleb : https://valentindecker.com/lectures/jouer-sa-peau-nassim-taleb/   Permalink 1:36 PM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Costoletta alla Milanese con tartufo bianco & cassoeula pic.twitter.com/K6NctuJpVt Permalink 1:07 PM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb NO MORE FAT TAILS @DrCirillo prevailed upon me to rename Fat Tails “Thick Tails” because Thich Tails is more general than Fat Tails. In some circles Fat Tails mean Power Laws Gaussian->Thick Tails> Subexponential ~Heavy Tails>Fat Tails. pic.twitter.com/igtLFveCEi Permalink 9:24 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Butthurt Klueless Nate @NateSilver538 lost his marbles in his road rage. Writes I haven’t written a new book since 2001 while insulting me using 2 concepts “IYI” & “skin in the game” that are… from my 2018 book. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1062782704159256576   BTW, I still have skin in the game Permalink 9:16 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb But… I am not angry, to the contrary. Just trying to get some entertainment. https://twitter.com/RousselRuthanne/status/1063109687413882881   Permalink 8:43 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 3- To summarize, aging is Lindy; what is novel is aging for the non-elite. If anyone can live long, there is no signaling. (BTW you learn more from @holland_tom’s tweets than from uni lecktchurs). https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/918463935011057665   Permalink 8:32 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb In other words, it is quite shabby for @NAteSilver to boast his 2016 performance and hide this: https://twitter.com/RealFacelessMan/status/1062871402133413888   Gabish? Permalink 8:14 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Mr @rZadek, @henryimiller has been fired from Forbes, Project Syndicate and (perhaps thanks to me), the Hoover Institution because it was discovered that Monsanto ghostwrites his articles. Gabish? https://twitter.com/rzadek/status/1063096326433341440   Permalink 7:50 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb In a nutshell, what Klueless Nate @NateSilver538 doesn’t get is the PRINCIPLE that it is not ONE forecast that matters for track record, but ALL the forecasts made per election. That principle we’ve known since De Finetti; I adapted it to continuous time & derived properties. Permalink 7:24 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@tparsi Senator @RandPaul does not hold back. Points out that it is Saudi Arabia and not Iran that is spreading the radicalized version of Islam that has attacked America and radicalized and destabilized much of the Islamic world. Wins him applause at #TAC_Con. Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 2- Some memory “loss” w/age may be efficient filtering. You get better at predicting what you need to remember. Don’t immediately assume senescence. But bad bones/osteopenia weaken memory in animal models (Karsenti). Most moderns have sick bones at 50. Do heavy weightlifting! Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 1- Retirement is not Lindy as previous generations had a short aging window. Your knowlege is maximal when close to death. Age used to correlate with survival skills, genetic fitness, physical strength, and wisdom. No longer. https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1063056382906122240   Permalink 5:18 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Il Saggiatore, publishing house in Milan. pic.twitter.com/dtNJUhAyjJ Permalink 2:38 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A note on serial correlation and the 4 population test pic.twitter.com/nvP9GBGx9V Permalink 8:55 PM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Ossobuco a la Milanese pic.twitter.com/H655lLIsfb Permalink 1:14 PM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Italians lie about Milan. They are instructed to say it is ugly so tourists leave them alone. Milan is so secretive it took half of a dozen visits to figure out the place. Permalink 11:20 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 4- The Saudi Mob figured out where I am hiding in Riyadh! Procedures to expel me (If I am very lucky)… https://twitter.com/0zzil_/status/1062731824227647490   Permalink 7:46 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb No, klueless Nate @NateSilver538 Forecasting elections isn’t Nate Silver’s thing. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf   https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1062542399027793920   Permalink 7:43 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The Phoenicia-East Med Research Project has started. pic.twitter.com/CXzXV2njDO Permalink 4:39 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Where I discover that: + Saudis don’t have a public sense of humor; can’t possibly conceive that someone can pull a prank. + You can even let them know it is a prank; they’ll take the rest seriously. + They are incapable of harming anyone outside their consulates, even then. Permalink 4:12 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@drdrasko Brilliant. @nntaleb “Skin in the game: you tend to know a lot of stuff that you wouldn’t guess you need to know from the outside. That’s why machine learning is successful because it has no idea what is outside.” https://twitter.com/googletalks/status/1062459392971415552   Permalink 2:37 PM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 2- While Saudi mobs kept spouting all manner of epithets (mainly racial), the most mysterious insult for Saudis appears to be “frm the suburbs” “”The barbarian is at the shoe of the master in the suburb O brother of the winter we are out owl of poverty” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1062303526053920769   Permalink 1:24 PM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The story is HILAAAAAAAAAARIOUS. Some of my tweets during the Kashoggi period showed for location Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Someone discovered them yesterday and a total frenzy ensued, with people searching for me there (they still are), and MBS’s electronic army throwing insults. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1062022037416357888   Permalink 10:27 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb When I hear people wondering why I am “qualified” ag “experts” for risks of GMOs, Semitic philology, & ancient UK population. Just as roulette is a branch of probability, not carpentry, genetics & linguistics are minor branches of applied probability. Gabish? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1061793657228013568   Permalink 6:16 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The British philosopher Austin said in a tawk that although a double negative in English implies a positive meaning, there is no language in which a double positive implies a negative. Sydney Morgenbesser responded: “Yeah, yeah.” https://twitter.com/QuikQuak/status/1062336636535689217   Permalink 5:53 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I just realized that Milan isn’t Mediterranean, that is *butter not olive oil* (according to the Gallic Wars); perhaps it would be anathema to consume seppia there. Osso buco would be preferable. Permalink 5:23 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Yeah, yeah, yeah… https://www.wsj.com/articles/khashoggi-tape-doesnt-implicate-saudi-prince-says-john-bolton-1542113090   via @WSJ Permalink 5:18 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@Jaffer22915438 Someone like NNT putting himself on the line with Monsanto, Saudi Arabia and others doing nothing and just cheering him on; Cheering for the military while you sit safely at home watching football… Permalink 4:48 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@Complexity_Labs pic.twitter.com/Zj1RrIXgt5 Permalink 4:08 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Friends, time for something serious. What is the best squid ink restaurant (nero di seppia) in Milan? Thanks! Permalink 3:49 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The Saudis are still not catching me… But they are producing mysterious insults worth examining in a comparative literature class. Most insist “they don’t care about me” (an insult), some claim I am a Shiite in disguize and I am “from the suburbs” (an insult). pic.twitter.com/8SHcPKBDGu Permalink 3:17 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My new correspondents/ pen pals. https://twitter.com/davesthomson/status/1062096201560993792   Permalink 1:42 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Pple believe in a historical trend agst social conservatism. No: history is punctuated w/spontaneous emergence of puritanism. Holding a baloon under water: From Roman mores to Victorian prudishness, pre-Islamic Arabia,1970s Iran, & 1960s Maghreb to … ISIS. Next…France. Permalink 1:40 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb They are reaaaaaaaaaally annoyed. https://twitter.com/sahli_reem/status/1062090493213982720   Permalink 1:12 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb And the usual (flattering) death threats. https://twitter.com/Mohamed20048262/status/1062085176484859904   Permalink 12:54 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/Yarimatahari/status/1062082319111077888   Permalink 12:45 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The reasons the Saudis haven’t been able to catch me (so far): https://twitter.com/FattestFatTony/status/1062075946587570177   Permalink 12:21 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb They are reaaaallllly looking for me in Riyadh. Many Saudi have alerted the authorities. I may be subjected to beheading… https://twitter.com/theproudsaudi1/status/1062007083422416896   Permalink 11:43 AM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb HILARIOUS The Saudis are after me thinking I am in Saudi Arabia! https://twitter.com/fa_alshehrii/status/1062009057484009473   Permalink 8:39 AM – 12 Nov 2018

@JonathanWaxman1 @nntaleb I think you will like this. Exposing shills who hide in ‘Think Tanks’ by forcing them to declare in which games they actually have skin. https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1061744315012128768   Permalink 1:05 AM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Improved on the paper pic.twitter.com/iDkcp9LS4N Permalink 5:31 PM – 11 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The sucker problem is to think that those for whom you feel compassion would also feel compassion for those weaker and more afflicted than they are. Permalink 1:36 PM – 11 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The checks go to administrators, tenured faculty, and real estate developers. (Universities exploit adjucts & grad students.) Give your money to starving adjuncts. https://twitter.com/DavidBCollum/status/1061431560010940416   Permalink 8:10 AM – 11 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The best summary of my central idea. https://twitter.com/rj7050/status/1061425555097161730   Permalink 1:37 AM – 11 Nov 2018

@Ekaitzsaies The Basque Meet-Up for discussing @nntaleb ‘s ideas was one of the most inspiring experiences thanks to everyone that took part in it. Maestro Taleb you should join us next time! @GuruAnaerobic @jacoporomei @urtatses pic.twitter.com/fpntYdTycg Permalink 1:06 AM – 11 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Astrology is Lindy; it reincarnated as economics/social science. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1061411581475610626   Permalink 5:20 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A pol. science education from 50 y ago (Corm’s) teaches EXACTLY backwards: nation-state, centralization, size, Arabization, etc. “Balkanization” is meant to be bad. These pple have never heard of Switzerland/subsidiarity. Will cancel/not renew my subscription to @LOrientLeJour https://twitter.com/LOrientLeJour/status/1061237966989938688   Permalink 4:46 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Time to pick the format for both the book and the logo of the new STEM Academic publishing house. pic.twitter.com/2s8fajuEV3 Permalink 3:44 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Indeed Anatolia https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1061360811535405056   Permalink 12:54 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb That’s Anatolia for you. https://twitter.com/lecths/status/1061349668880310273   Permalink 12:46 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I think I got it right plus or minus n^p I am now a co-author on a technical paper in genetics. pic.twitter.com/Cztd4k3IIO Permalink 7:06 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb “Making sense and being right are not the same ting” (sic) — Fat Tony #skininthegame https://twitter.com/shouvanikc/status/1061259246409519104   Permalink 6:47 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A Twelver Shiite friend attending service at Saint Nicholas’ Greek Orthodox Cathedral in Beirut, pointed out at the 12 apostles and calmly said: “you too”. pic.twitter.com/NMwGpQWuBj Permalink 6:46 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@fpenido Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb @paulkrugman and @elonmusk The main difference between a BS vendor (Krugman) and a doer (Musk) is that a doer, necessarily, has scars. #IntelectualYetIdiot https://twitter.com/leandroruschel/status/1061243652163452930   Permalink 5:32 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@BLebnene adonish nka7ash/nsha7at mnl yoga via @jadabdala check it out and retweet! w l 5ér la 2eddém #lebanese #lebanon #lebneene cc: @nntaleb https://twitter.com/jadabdala/status/1061241508219797504   Permalink 5:00 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Why the best surgeons might look like butchers. pic.twitter.com/p1UbKDjGbl Permalink 10:20 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Everyone seems to be making the mistake of ergodicity: The rich of 2015 are NOT necessarily those of 2000. In the U.S. 85% of the rich were not so in earlier periods. These static analyses by economists and psychologists are BS. I noted that only pple w #Skininthegame get it. https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1058853678512259074   Permalink 9:37 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Used to be seductive & thrilling for thinkers to counter the then repressive Church dogma, w/the appeal of forbidden fruit. It’s starting to be more seductive to counter the currently repressive PC dogma than conform. University monokultchurists are too stupid to realize it. Permalink 8:34 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My first technical foray into genetics. Encountered the 4-population test, deriving the “estimation error”. pic.twitter.com/n959cJcxXn Permalink 5:49 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The camera adds 12.6 pounds. Permalink 4:39 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb: “Skin in the Game” | Talks at Google https://youtu.be/uv6KLbkvua8   via @YouTube Permalink 4:34 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@ProbFact Inferring where data came from based on tail probabilities https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2018/07/17/attribution/   Permalink 1:15 PM – 8 Nov 2018

@nntaleb And odds it came via Syriac pic.twitter.com/VTj4CVsZSg Permalink 9:59 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Philology du Jour: Borj ( برج ) [TOWER] comes from Πύργος itself from the Urartian Burgana (unless it came directly from Burgama. Permalink 9:56 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Deadlifting trains you to lift heavy objects, not so much to ski hard slopes. Permalink 8:13 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb So to clarify, the statement is: “You learn disproportionally more from tails of distributions than you do from their center.” Gabish? Permalink 8:12 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@PithyThought I’m often simultaneously annoyed by your aura of arrogance and impressed by the clarity of your reasoning. Permalink 7:29 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Not my point @yaneerbaryam. My point is that if you want to practice skiing, you learn disproportionally more from hard runs (tail events) than from slopes for beginner. Just as you gain more from lifting extremes (from convexity) than regular weights. Revise that stuff. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1060205836595855360   Permalink 7:21 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 8- Pple forget that history is thousands of years and give you salient anecdotes that effectively dilute when seen locally (as per year or lifetime) Always funny to see pple like @AdamRutherford lecture people on pseudoscience then miss elementary things from high school math. Permalink 10:03 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 7- The above thread shows why journos are BS vendors, even with a PhD. cc:@AdamRutherford https://twitter.com/AdamRutherford/status/1060101363621879808   Permalink 9:27 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 6- This argument explains why historians talking about migration rates in the middle ages > .00005 are wrong (that is close to zero; today’s rates are yuuuge by comparison). A tiny rate of migration multiplies… pic.twitter.com/az2B0AwMOZ Permalink 9:20 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 6- This argument explains why historians talking about migration rates in the middle ages > .00005 are wrong (that is close to zero; today’s rates are yuuuge by comparison). A tiny rate of migration multiplies… pic.twitter.com/az2B0AwMOZ Permalink 9:20 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb En politique, comme en amour Ni jamais, ni toujours. (In politics as in love, never say never, never say forever). A huge surprise. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1060193577861595136   Permalink 9:05 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ Announcing the M4 Forecasting Conference to be held on December 10/11 in New York. The Conference will elaborate on the findings of M4 Competition that will be discussed and elaborated by prominent speakers from leading business firms and top universities (See Day 1 program). pic.twitter.com/yjSIt2qkK4 Permalink 6:34 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@mathtick I think this discussion is lost in semantics and politics … I think @nntaleb is not saying small migration in 1000 years, instead saying a low rate of migration PER GENERATION PER PERSON hence the sustained genetic diversity *across* regions. Please correct if I’m wrong. Permalink 2:46 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 5- What the globalist idiots don’t realize is that migration is as counterintuitive as compound interest. Had we had a migration rate similar to what we have today over 5-10 C, there would be no differenciation between populations. Very similar to entropy. pic.twitter.com/nZWoS02S9k Permalink 12:41 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 4- Historians, anecdote-gatherers, and other entertainers are way behind; genetic evidence is like paternity tests. The last 5 years brought a yuuuge overhaul of beliefs. https://twitter.com/patrick_wyman/status/1060066901873745925?s=21   Permalink 11:59 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 3- Tiny rates of migration such as .5% per century can lead to big cumulative effects such as Subsaharan gene flow into Egypt … Permalink 11:44 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 2- Even places that underwent yuuuuuge ethnocultural changes such as Turkey show little gene flow. Turkey has tiny Turkic genes. Historians are clueless about migrations. Permalink 11:34 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb There were no migrations in the Middle ages except towards empty steppes. #genetics #scholarshipwithoutBSishardIknow https://twitter.com/Forbes/status/1059516283916558336   Permalink 8:42 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@SamParkerSenate Believe it or not, this was my campaign slogan & theme earlier this year : Make American Government Local Again. #MAGLA pic.twitter.com/1rz9Ovgp05 Permalink 2:43 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Skin in the game https://twitter.com/GKCdaily/status/1059929363334991874   Permalink 2:35 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@EvanMcM About 5 years ago, I was incensed by reading @nntaleb ‘s suggestion that one can be ‘“over-informed”, that newspapers were useless. Now, I think perhaps he didn’t convey this point strongly enough. Permalink 1:45 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb French fries cooked in extra virgin local olive oil. Beware seed oil. (Northern Phoenicia) . cc: @Mangan150 (corrected earlier typo) pic.twitter.com/kXN8G2pv8h Permalink 10:54 AM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Trump’s attitude to Iran: EITHER + Trump is a businessman not interested in situations rotting & permanent 40y tensions, trying to get a better deal than Obama. He is just bargaining. OR + Trump is serving the neocon agenda plus that of some other states. Permalink 2:56 PM – 5 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Trump’s attitude to Iran: EITHER + Trump is a businessman not interested in situations rotting & permanent 40y tensions, trying to get a better deal than Obama. He is just bargaining. OR + Trump is serving the neocon agenda plus that of some other states. Permalink 2:56 PM – 5 Nov 2018

@baumhedlund #BaumHedlundLaw Attorneys Discuss Monsanto Roundup Litigation at UCLA Law Event https://www.baumhedlundlaw.com/11-18-bhag-roundup-litigation-ucla/   Permalink 2:08 PM – 5 Nov 2018

@shikhar394 Nero: “Signore Ingeniere Tony, some of these tie-wearers are very rich, even richer than you.” Tony: “Nero, you sucker. Don’t be fooled by money. These are just numbers. Being self-owned is a state of mind.” @nntaleb #antifragile Permalink 10:50 AM – 5 Nov 2018

@Jaffer22915438 Choice? Narcissism of small differences… pic.twitter.com/xS9ByzmJOB Permalink 6:09 AM – 5 Nov 2018

@nntaleb https://math.stackexchange.com/q/2985525/88078?stw=2   Permalink 1:36 AM – 5 Nov 2018

@nntaleb https://math.stackexchange.com/q/2985525/88078?stw=2   Permalink 1:36 AM – 5 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 12- If you have to “defend” your relationship with the Saudis… https://twitter.com/RTGBusiness/status/1059369028123275264   Permalink 1:00 AM – 5 Nov 2018

@iosif_lazaridis Max entropy prediction is no prediction. https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/414759-nate-silver-says-dems-could-retake-house-or-not-both-extremely   Permalink 5:46 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Footnotes: 1) An interesting point: you can also use the maximum entropy approach to get the same result as my election paper/problem with Klueless Nate. 2) The interesting part of the ArXiv paper isn’t elections, but binary martingales. This can be applied to other processes. pic.twitter.com/4pRDSrtLCV Permalink 3:48 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@serb_superb Gems like this from @nntaleb are part of the reason I’m on twitter. Peterson would need 15 minutes of a podcast to convey the same information. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1009740238053412864   Permalink 3:38 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 5- FOR THE RECORD I am not translating @DineshDSouza’s point that it was 50-50: I ALSO understood ~50-50 DIRECTLY from Silver’s “extremely” in the linked “The Hill”. Gabish? Permalink 3:15 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 4- Things are actually worse: that @NateSilver538 doesn’t get that if BOTH X & Non-X are “extremely possible = Probability converging to 50-50 is EXACTLY my problem w/his misunderstanding of probability in forecasting, & point of my paper. Gabish? https://twitter.com/coachglove/status/1059217783886503937   Permalink 3:04 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb When someone says are event and its opposite are extremely possible I infer either 1) 50/50 or 2) the predictor is shamelessly hedging, in other words, BS. Permalink 2:18 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb (cont) which explain why @DineshDSouza is right: you don’t change a forecast from 80% to 50% under uncertainty. Second time klueless Nate Silver makes a mistake. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/CD5FEhVMVf”>  pic.twitter.com/CD5FEhVMVf Permalink 1:56 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Nate Silver just proved a second election in a row he doesn’t know “how math works”. (cont) https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059149034693316608   Permalink 1:53 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@kalltvatten Reading “skin in the game” by @nntaleb and this section is just hilarious because I went on a date with a IYI (intellectual yet idiot) who did INDEED have The black swan on his shelf pic.twitter.com/X6OnloHSky Permalink 4:58 AM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/tZqDIBJxdH Permalink 11:12 AM – 3 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Typo, 1940-2018 Permalink 11:07 AM – 3 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Most robust definition of the fraudster/charlatan: Someone who 1) claims to be what he’s not, or 2) misrepresents what he can deliver. @davidboxenhorn Permalink 12:04 AM – 3 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Economists’ only empirically verified expertise is selling themselves to the (paying) public as “experts”. https://twitter.com/VidStimac/status/1058415675457392640   Permalink 11:02 PM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Socialism, def: a political system where decisions are made by people with advanced degrees in social “science”. Permalink 10:00 PM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb They used a very incompetent translator. https://twitter.com/ksamofaen/status/1058457578978586627   Permalink 3:08 PM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Nicolas Ghosn, MP, 1940-1988 (my uncle, mother’s brother) pic.twitter.com/MHN0R9Cpp4 Permalink 10:45 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 11- Elon Musk, finally. https://twitter.com/AmbuyaJohn/status/1058413418665967617   Permalink 10:42 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A society is as advanced as its treatment of its weak, its handicapped and incapacitated. Permalink 10:13 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The Monsanto shill Keith Kloor @keithkloor was also part of the smear campaign by Monsanto against yours truly. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1058343215886004225   Permalink 6:28 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@joshua_landis “Throughout Yemen’s three-and-a-half-year civil war, the Emiratis have been as brutal and reckless as the Saudis….” – by @DefPriorities & Richard Sokolsky https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/10/30/other-murderous-gulf-pub-77606?utm_source=carnegieshare   Permalink 6:07 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@spyrosmakrid An excellent description of our PLOS ONE paper ( https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889  ) finding that the most accurate ML method was less accurate than the least accurate statistical one. @teatchthemachine https://twitter.com/TeachTheMachine/status/1057333666202832896   Permalink 12:45 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@HinduLiberty Indians got diabetes in 20th century because they * stopped eating lots of ghee * stopped using healthy oils like coconut * stopped fasting on sacred days like ekadashi * started eating lots of sugary stuff * started using unhealthy oils https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/1058006677847506945?s=19   Permalink 5:02 PM – 1 Nov 2018

@GreenPlusAnE Here’s @EverydayRD threatening @CrossFit gyms for telling clients not to drink soda. Same dietitian Coke & the Kellen Company pay to defend soda. Kellen does Coke & Pepsi propaganda (the CCC) & promotes laws that would make CrossFit’s affiliates illegal (CREP). More coming … https://twitter.com/EverydayRD/status/1057970570946523136   Permalink 6:24 AM – 1 Nov 2018

@nntaleb You are not what you eat; you are what what you eat eats. 1st order vegetarians — cows, Californians, history majors 2nd order vegetarians — eat only 1st order vegetarians: (some) Semitic religions (w/only gras fed chicken), lions … Nonvegetarians: eat porc, crustaceous … Permalink 6:16 AM – 1 Nov 2018

@nntaleb How about letting people research your life in dusty archives… Permalink 6:02 AM – 1 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Cutting an olive tree in the Ancient World was punishable bu death. https://twitter.com/bbassem7/status/1057772976353947649   Permalink 4:34 AM – 1 Nov 2018

@nntaleb And PR efforts are thwarted… You can’t buy a politician for 14k no more. @Jaffer22915438 https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1057656897489252353?s=21   Permalink 5:38 PM – 31 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The @black_swan_man sent Halloween masks to a collection of people (includes a bust of Seneca sitting in a museum) pic.twitter.com/9z4x2h4Swn Permalink 11:11 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man Life imitates art. @nntaleb @BloombergTV https://twitter.com/ErikSchatzker/status/1057668193953767425   Permalink 9:23 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@ErikSchatzker I’m trying to make sense of this http://blackswanman.com  . Especially the appearance I make on p. 19. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Wv1be50pmU”>  pic.twitter.com/Wv1be50pmU Permalink 6:54 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@nntaleb You can RETROSPECTIVELY measure the *real-IQ* of a blabbering intellectual from his/her historical grap of: – Bitcoin – Tesla – Trump – GMOs etc. Permalink 4:58 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 9- Saudi Arabia boycotted by high profile athletes. https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1057585661920862210   Permalink 4:15 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@zerohedge Taleb: Those Idiots Who Emphatically Told Me “He Will Last 3 Months At Best” https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-30/taleb-those-idiots-who-emphatically-told-me-he-will-last-3-months-best   Permalink 1:25 PM – 30 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The intellectshual world is populated by a collection of people who are much better at explaining than understanding. Permalink 6:05 AM – 30 Oct 2018

@nntaleb If you want to lecktshur, do not act as if you are giving a lecktshur. Those slick, glib, and smooth are charlatans, or, worse, TED speakers. You are not an actor. As Seneca wrote, philosophers shd not act like mountebanks, *perform* on the stage. https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52   https://twitter.com/digvijoy_c/status/1055648535876722688   Permalink 4:39 AM – 30 Oct 2018

@nntaleb An illustration of how little journalists & “intellectuals” understand the world: their predictions of events related to Trump’s presidency. How many people I didn’t know were idiots have emphatically told me “he will last 3 months at best”… https://twitter.com/Fuctupmind/status/1056971162566250496   Permalink 3:41 AM – 30 Oct 2018

@ektrit Another reminder that being “christian” in Greece and East Europe means “NOT muslim”, nothing to do with Christ’s resurrection and Theosis. It is negative identity coming from the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire. https://twitter.com/ekathimerini/status/1057216561931534336   Permalink 3:26 AM – 30 Oct 2018

@nntaleb They had recently requested asylum in the US. (Sorry to cite the NYT) https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/29/nyregion/sisters-dead-river-saudi-arabia.html   Permalink 6:18 PM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb You cannot make this up. Two dissident sisters who fled Saudi Barbaria are found dead in … NY. And the Saudi Consulate is now involved in … helping. https://twitter.com/KSAconsulateNY/status/1056737353522397184   Permalink 6:10 PM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Since Semitic Philology is open today, where is the connection between KNOSSOS and KNS? Were the Minoan place-names Semitic? Permalink 2:06 PM – 29 Oct 2018

@catoletters MSNBC and Daily Beast feature UAE lobbyist David Rothkopf with no disclosure: a scandalous media-wide practice https://interc.pt/2q6OS7U   by @ggreenwald Permalink 12:35 PM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 8- Indeed the train has left the (first) station. https://twitter.com/fritzsternjr/status/1056956961902784513   Permalink 11:43 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@XFaure Poke @nntaleb . Seems like people are rediscovering antifragility | When one New Zealand school tossed its playground rules and let students risk injury, the results were surprising http://nationalpost.com/wcm/d33f1216-bc3b-40e6-abc5-f278792a3717   via @nationalpost Permalink 8:00 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Haven’t tried to solve this, but can’t resist posting it. pic.twitter.com/XJsC8zs0UM Permalink 7:15 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 7- Booing in sports… A trend is forming. https://twitter.com/aldertrack/status/1056908115369697286   Permalink 7:14 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Explained in #Antifragile why top-down “globalization” a la Krugman increases risks. Monstrously increases risks. Ricardian comparative advantage blows up under model error. Economists know practically nothing about risk. pic.twitter.com/pqBlSOIimS Permalink 6:10 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb An explanation of the mistake (confusing a synagogue for a church): in Medieval Arabic, it’s the same word; synagogue is masculine, Kniss; church is feminine Knissa. Same root as Knesseth (Israeli parliament), KNS=to gather. https://twitter.com/milenarodban/status/1056711569495728135   Permalink 5:22 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @bloomberg pic.twitter.com/FPS9Km7Th5 Permalink 4:46 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Read stuff in translation, but it’s more honest to work w/bilingual versions: Montaigne is now even translated from Medieval to Modern French (which was a no-no in my childhood). The more organic the language, the more it changes. Arabic & Syriac are same across millennia. Permalink 3:11 PM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Never take cooking advice from a waiter. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/923848138493956096   Permalink 11:48 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Remember that Seneca was a trader. Train for all kind of hits you can take. Above all don’t read sh*t about Seneca by nerd/academics & other nonrisk takers. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1056511292658331648   Permalink 10:29 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A possible solution pic.twitter.com/NOs9XfSJyE Permalink 10:27 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Another amuse-mind for Sunday PM. pic.twitter.com/MJqbrFEBmk Permalink 9:31 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #stoics #Seneca #Halloween pic.twitter.com/UL0SoMqS7q Permalink 4:41 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 6- The trend is your friend. h/t @amrojasmendoza https://twitter.com/ajoykelly/status/1054806048765329408   Permalink 6:20 PM – 27 Oct 2018

@AlanDersh The impulse to seek partisan advantage from a tragedy like the Tree of Life shooting seems as irresistible as it is irresponsible. Permalink 5:46 PM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 5- The trend of negative benefits for doing business with Saudi Barbaria is firming up (i.e. the negative signaling costs of doing business exceed the benefits). https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/187283-181027-macron-merkel-back-europe-coordination-on-arms-sales-to-saudi-arabia   Permalink 2:39 PM – 27 Oct 2018

@GuruAnaerobic Statins: Benefit overstated – Harm covered up Pesticides: Benefit overstated – Harm covered up Smoking: Harm covered up Grains: Benefits overstated – harm denied Margarine: Benefit overstated – worse than butter Depressants: Benefit overstated – Harm denied What else currently? Permalink 2:31 PM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb My attempt pic.twitter.com/JTsLJ3URNx Permalink 8:41 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Seemingly these “idiots who think in labels” don’t understand the aphorism, that is, don’t get the difference between *expressing* with the use of labels and *thinking* in labels. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1048072471063220224   Permalink 7:18 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saturday morning math in memory of @CutTheKnotMath (courtesy the Romanian Math Magazine) pic.twitter.com/g3oJNWOd6y Permalink 6:25 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@mintotsai “Soul In The Game” Taleb (@nntaleb) explains how one person like an Elon Musk (@elonmusk) can transform entire industries. pic.twitter.com/C4q6lMAnDn Permalink 6:13 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@peter_sarris The first English translation of the Novels of the Emperor Justinian based on the original Greek – and the first historical and legal commentary in any language – the perfect X Mas present for the discerning Byzantinist… pic.twitter.com/sEBD4NXVd8 Permalink 3:11 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@spyrosmakrid The Five Major Objectives of the M4 Forecasting Conference: New York CIty, December 10 and 11 http://www.mcompetitions.unic.ac.cy   For information about the comparisons of ML and Stat forecasting methods for the M3 Competition https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   for the M4 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207018300785   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/I74LnHOOUI”>  pic.twitter.com/I74LnHOOUI Permalink 1:16 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 4- https://twitter.com/occuworld/status/1055944966357299200?s=21   Permalink 3:13 PM – 26 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/Z70czTb8Lj Permalink 6:33 AM – 26 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 3- A possible trend https://twitter.com/decmanagement/status/1055704125613240321   Permalink 4:31 AM – 26 Oct 2018

@davidboxenhorn One small step towards @nntaleb’s recommendations. It should be a lifetime ban, but it’s progress http://time.com/4652703/president-trump-lobbying-ban   Permalink 11:18 PM – 25 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 2- Already started: a witch hunt of those doing business with Saudi Barbaria. https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/1055582317685760001   Permalink 4:55 PM – 25 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ergodicity, again. Skin in the Game explain why dynamic things should NEVER be looked at statically. https://twitter.com/EconTalker/status/1055239759776374784   Permalink 3:16 AM – 25 Oct 2018

@davidboxenhorn Green Tea: good for you Green Tea Capsules: bad for you Scale matters. https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-45971416   Permalink 1:57 AM – 25 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria will be doomed when shunning it becomes a form of virtue signaling. Permalink 4:03 PM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Introducing REWRI instructors to squid ink! Looking for the reactions… pic.twitter.com/RMLj9p84O3 Permalink 3:46 PM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Pol Principles under complexity The project is growing pic.twitter.com/t5iWwz4jlV Permalink 1:43 PM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Will be doing a lecktshur by Skype. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1055122682956656640   Permalink 11:11 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@trishankkarthik @nntaleb made an important technical point: the Italians even stole the word for wine from the Phoenicians! Permalink 9:06 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@trishankkarthik The technical definition of fat tails, guys pic.twitter.com/xvNIR5MlUS Permalink 8:28 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Gabrial Mathy you are a fraud. Knightian risks are dealt with via metaprobability. I AM FED UP WITH ECONOMISTS MAKING FALSE CLAIMS ABOUT MY WORK. pic.twitter.com/KUkRjOwNKE Permalink 7:26 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Yuuuuuuuuuge punishment. https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1055077847390437376   Permalink 5:51 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@ngriffin360 Life is.. #longgamma #antifragile @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/rhErBRtxQ3 Permalink 9:14 AM – 23 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ya LebTwitter Shu bit7ébbo nsammé l lgha taba3na? @oldlevantine @Extrachelle @HsenAndil @PZalloua @961Aleh @lebaneselingui1 @BLebnene @turlevnon Permalink 6:50 PM – 22 Oct 2018