Published on Jun 12, 2017
For fat tailed distributions, the empirical distributions does not reflect the true statistical properties, particularly for extremes. This is a simplified side note to a paper with Mark Spitznagel on why people make a mistake by looking at raw historical data as “empiricism”.
@nntaleb Centrally, justice is about starting with the crime, then finding culprits, rather than starting with the person then finding the crime.https://twitter.com/AlanDersh/status/879394382285332480 Permalink 10:56 AM – 26 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Mathematical scratchnotes for Skin in the Game. pic.twitter.com/Qi8PiJMLMo Permalink 9:17 AM – 26 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Economists… talking abt charlatans who “sell a service that they do not deliver on”.https://twitter.com/NessimAitKacimi/status/879348478157230081 Permalink 7:57 AM – 26 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The plot thickens: the Northern Levant spoke … sanscrit! @PZallouahttps://twitter.com/ShoaibDaniyal/status/879239364567474176 Permalink 6:53 AM – 26 Jun 2017
@mikeandallie A terrific example to show calculus students from @CutTheKnotMath and @nntaleb : https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/06/25/a-terrific-example-for-calculus-students-from-nassim-taleb-and-alexander-bogomolny/ #math #mathchat Permalink 5:03 AM – 25 Jun 2017
@vinayak Excellent word choice! “Only The Rich Are Poisoned: The Preference of Others” — @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68#—260-557 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/b8T48djA9Y”> pic.twitter.com/b8T48djA9Y Permalink 1:40 AM – 25 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The only compliments I really take seriously as those by such erudites as @ArmandDAngour . Or Fat Tony. Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The only answer I have to your comment is that you an imbecile. Permalink 6:33 AM – 24 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Being tolerant with the intolerant is an act of intolerance.https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15 Permalink 6:27 AM – 24 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The enemy of market system isn’t some pot-smoking hirsute communistic hippie, but a suit wearing banker or Federal Reserve employee. Permalink 3:50 AM – 24 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The only argument to not jail bankers is that they would manage to scam other inmates.https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/23/jailing-barclays-bankers-financial-crash?CMP=share_btn_tw Permalink 2:52 AM – 24 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Nice to see one’s sentences “rediscovered” episodically.https://twitter.com/EddyElfenbein/status/878518675187302400 Permalink 1:02 AM – 24 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Islamized Armenians, Greeks & Syrians have been stuck with a “Turkish” or “Arab” identity. http://www.repairfuture.net/index.php/en/identity-standpoint-of-turkey/the-turkish-identity-imposed-by-the-nation-state-is-being-questioned via @Repairfuture Permalink 12:59 AM – 24 Jun 2017
@nntaleb No praise is valid unless its author is as prone to praising as to laying blame. Permalink 2:13 PM – 23 Jun 2017
@CutTheKnotMath Find a limit of sequence http://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/RootedLimit.shtml #FigureThat #math #algebra #calculus #limit ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3vjVR07hrQ”> pic.twitter.com/3vjVR07hrQ Permalink 2:58 PM – 22 Jun 2017
@skorusARK . @nntaleb makes a solid case for general purpose technology platforms #blockchain #autonomouscars #EnergyStorage all have lots of use cases pic.twitter.com/63huPkxts2 Permalink 7:34 AM – 22 Jun 2017
@GuruAnaerobic From ‘ANAEROBICS’ – 2018 Calories, Chronicity and sub-lethal starvation – a rationale. Independent of “current research”. (h/t @nntaleb) pic.twitter.com/Nw3MU6nYuc Permalink 4:23 AM – 22 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Snapshots of recent work on how to asses SP500 tail probabilities. pic.twitter.com/jooVBA7LLt Permalink 3:03 AM – 22 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The mathematics of why absence of correlation != 0 correlationhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o Permalink 11:40 PM – 21 Jun 2017
@nntaleb The opposite of reading is not not reading, but reading something like the @NewYorker. Permalink 5:35 AM – 21 Jun 2017
@CutTheKnotMath What is the probability that a random nxn matrix from Z(2) is degenerate? (Moscow State U. math olympiad, 1976) Permalink 10:05 PM – 20 Jun 2017
@nntaleb “Merime”, impure, comes from “muharram” (<-haram), which makes their hidden religion even more confusing to track. Permalink 3:29 PM – 20 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Is it me or something is wrong with this painting by Yevgraf Sorokin, 1853, of Spanish gitanos. Romas are supposed to avoid dogs (impure). pic.twitter.com/ZPrVFT8brg Permalink 3:26 PM – 20 Jun 2017
@nntaleb J. Ceasar’s thinking: Accumulate details, plan silently, then move fast ag. your enemy Chronic engagement is just training him #Antifragile Permalink 2:55 PM – 20 Jun 2017
@nntaleb If you are famous, rich, or prominent, avoid people whose friends are all famous, rich, or prominent. Permalink 2:09 PM – 20 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Yet almost all of what’s in theses mounds of “nonfiction” books is BS. However, much of what’s in fiction is pure truth.https://twitter.com/historylvrsclub/status/877257258098360321 Permalink 1:19 PM – 20 Jun 2017
@nntaleb This is the pin story & coordination in Algazel. The reason I refrnced Graeber is that he mentions it as well. https://www.facebook.com/13012333374/posts/10150327251133375 Permalink 12:27 PM – 20 Jun 2017
@nntaleb In general, if an “Arab” discovery was made by a Persian (or a Babylonian), one should try to look further East. Permalink 12:45 AM – 20 Jun 2017
@nntaleb As an example of spontaneous coordination without a central planner. Permalink 12:32 AM – 20 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Example of the pin made by various of pple unaware of one another, used by A.Smith, originally in Algazel Could have originated further East Permalink 12:28 AM – 20 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Where is @davidgraeber when you need him? Permalink 12:21 AM – 20 Jun 2017
@nntaleb When ignorant pple dabble in history… Idea of division of labor/invisible hand (A.Smith’s pin) was by a Persian, Algazel,~300 y before IK.https://twitter.com/davidjshipley/status/876890647982166022 Permalink 12:19 AM – 20 Jun 2017
@nntaleb And Templeton’s Money will be used, not to research, but to finance Henry I. Miller & others smearing @garyruskin & scientists like Seralinihttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/876937088771530755 Permalink 11:56 PM – 19 Jun 2017
@nntaleb You die, leave money for charity, as John Templeton did.Later, an IYI schmuck who runs the foundation gives YOUR money to GMO propagandistshttps://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/876935203805057024 Permalink 3:57 PM – 19 Jun 2017
@nntaleb From memory 1st who introduces the technology isn’t safe; often goes bust. Remember Visicalc or Lotus123?, Osborne portable PC? AltaVista?https://twitter.com/tim/status/876566999530315776 Permalink 3:12 PM – 19 Jun 2017
@CutTheKnotMath A write-up for the last week’s probability problem http://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Probability/ARMLC_2016_7.shtml with thanks to @barryvanhoff @gcfr20 @nntaleb @mikeandallie ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Tel0ykarZ9″> pic.twitter.com/Tel0ykarZ9 Permalink 5:09 AM – 19 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Kazakhstan is a country of DOERS; very refreshing to see. Astana has in no time mushroomed out of the Eurasian steppe. Runs like Singapore! Permalink 4:30 PM – 17 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Probability du Jour. Maestro @CutTheKnotMath proposed a great probability problem (conventional convolutions fail because of dependence) pic.twitter.com/Y0A7QNN2fj Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Interesting the same people who report (& get) this don’t get that genetic modification jump complexity classes.https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/06/its-like-all-connected-man/530532/?utm_source=twb Permalink 12:50 AM – 17 Jun 2017
@Ishtiaque_IH Nicholas Taleb @Forum_Astana: Trial and error is better than knowledge because it helps us adapt more effectively in an uncertain world. pic.twitter.com/PxGsuXlACw Permalink 10:24 PM – 16 Jun 2017
@garyruskin Did #Monsanto ghostwrite articles for @henryimiller in defense of #glyphosate? http://bit.ly/2nOacg3 http://bit.ly/2d5KErI ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rWdJUeuvo2″> pic.twitter.com/rWdJUeuvo2 Permalink 1:47 PM – 16 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Dinner: Carpaccio of horse meat, & horse fat. The Steppe fighters kept a ketogenic diet which allowed them to fast for days w/o fatigue. Permalink 4:53 PM – 14 Jun 2017
@nntaleb Fermented mare milk, Genghis Khan’s champagne! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kumis ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ru3x2208ZI”> pic.twitter.com/ru3x2208ZI Permalink 7:22 AM – 14 Jun 2017
@non_observable “Virtue is what you do when nobody is looking. The rest is marketing.” -@nntaleb #WednesdayWisdom Permalink 2:52 AM – 14 Jun 2017
@LorenzoWVilla When a distribution realizes that @nntaleb is looking at her, she immediately becomes a power law.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/874784165266284545 Permalink 5:55 PM – 13 Jun 2017
We all encounter randomness every day — it is part of how we talk about the weather, sports, and even love. But despite being so familiar, randomness can be an elusive idea to pin down. Join mathematician Matthew Richey as he guides us toward greater understanding, demonstrating how randomness can be used as the secret ingredient in tackling famously difficult problems.
Special introduction by professor and bestselling author (The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness) Nassim Nicholas Taleb. (:35 to 3:37)
Math Encounters is a public presentation series celebrating the spectacular world of mathematics and presented by the Simons Foundation and the National Museum of Mathematics.
Dr. Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” takes apart our foreign and monetary policies. Why do neocons and mainstream media keep pushing war and conflict? They face zero risk. This is something new in history. Those who decide on interventionism overseas are never harmed by the interventions. Plus…are we headed for a market crash that makes 2008 look like a picnic? And if so, what will the aftermath look like?
Published on Jun 12, 2017
For fat tailed distributions, the empirical distributions does not reflect the true statistical properties, particularly for extremes. This is a simplified side note to a paper with Mark Spitznagel on why people make a mistake by looking at raw historical data as “empiricism”.