@nntaleb What people aren’t getting about Trump. (updated)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKW0LbeiWio Permalink 7:51 AM – 19 May 2017
@nntaleb Follow today @CutTheKnotMath if you are remotely into math. Permalink 7:47 AM – 19 May 2017
@nntaleb Nothing like a visual solution to a seemingly intractable problem. pic.twitter.com/evkzTAdVgR Permalink 7:43 AM – 19 May 2017
@nntaleb How most people cannot figure out Trump https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-05-18/taleb-sees-worse-tail-risks-than-in-2007-video via @markets Permalink 1:44 PM – 18 May 2017
@nntaleb Bloomberg TV in Vegas… their camera makes me gain weight! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-05-18/taleb-sees-worse-tail-risks-than-in-2007-video via @markets Permalink 12:22 PM – 18 May 2017
@nntaleb I am in Las Vegas. I am told that what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. Now does that apply to calories? (My friends are asking.) Permalink 9:43 AM – 18 May 2017
@nntaleb Next weekhttps://twitter.com/extrachelle/status/865233458049806336 Permalink 8:56 AM – 18 May 2017
@nntaleb The problem with pple without skin in the game: they genuinely EQUATE intelligence, culture, & ethics with being on the left.https://twitter.com/normonics/status/865219581266325504 Permalink 8:43 AM – 18 May 2017
@Cernovich Fox News wanted to go “mainstream,” all that happened is they lost viewers. Murdoch sons are beta males.http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/17/media/fox-news-msnbc-cnn-trump-ratings/index.html Permalink 8:19 PM – 17 May 2017
@nntaleb A twist for Holder’s Ineq. pic.twitter.com/EZZzFJLj5q Permalink 5:44 PM – 17 May 2017
@nntaleb Las Vegas: mostly prediabetic men in shorts. (#3) Permalink 4:17 PM – 17 May 2017
@nntaleb No. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315 @dottorpaxhttps://twitter.com/sapinker/status/864854207622512642 Permalink 9:34 AM – 17 May 2017
@nntaleb Voilahttps://twitter.com/julianassange/status/864687052452921344 Permalink 6:08 AM – 17 May 2017
@nntaleb What do you prefer, to be a BS Vendor but Bill Gates think you are solid (@sapinker), or be solid but Bill Gates think you are a BS vendor?https://twitter.com/berniewidmer/status/864518712770146304 Permalink 11:12 AM – 16 May 2017
@nntaleb How do I know that Gardner coauthor of @PTetlock is total charlatan? Charlatans engage in BS & strawman arguments. We considered homicide pic.twitter.com/50rR6GFl9X Permalink 8:22 AM – 16 May 2017
@nntaleb If you are not worried about the minority rule under globalization, you don’t understand globalization nor anything.https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15 Permalink 7:01 AM – 16 May 2017
@nntaleb The “blasphemy” was mere interpretation of rights. Soon in a place near you…http://thefederalist.com/2017/05/16/islamists-just-threw-christian-politician-jail-blasphemy-quran/#.WRsE5BANqwg.twitter Permalink 6:57 AM – 16 May 2017
@nntaleb Great map for someone exactly half Greek half Phoenician!https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/864468793992597504 Permalink 6:44 AM – 16 May 2017
@nntaleb Note that this charlatan Gardner doesn’t know that statistically homicide+violence frm war= violence frm war: thintail + fattail= fattail. Permalink 6:05 AM – 16 May 2017
@nntaleb Note that this charlatan Gardner doesn’t know that statistically homicide+violence frm war= violence frm war: thintail + fattail= fattail. Permalink 6:05 AM – 16 May 2017
@nntaleb Simple method showing SP500 is incompatible with anything but powerlaw tail. Left tail exponent between 2.2 and 2.8 pic.twitter.com/Gsy4rSUGV6 Permalink 5:33 AM – 16 May 2017
@nntaleb Not me!https://twitter.com/dermot_lyons/status/864238543169650688 Permalink 3:15 PM – 15 May 2017
@nntaleb For those interested, here is our work w/@DrCirillo on violence.Process is VERY fat tailed,nearly Levy distribution https://arxiv.org/pdf/1505.04722.pdf Permalink 1:31 PM – 15 May 2017
@nntaleb I wrote history jumps (FatTails), not continuous (Wiener) process. Charlatan Gardner cherrypicks to crime rate at 1 scale,not total violence Permalink 1:16 PM – 15 May 2017
@nntaleb This book is not a book, but a monument. I have been reading rules from it for 10 years.https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/863976243481513988 Permalink 11:59 AM – 15 May 2017
@nntaleb I knew from his books @dgardner was ignorant. Didn’t realize so much. 1-violence fat tailed 2-Prob dist assc w/ time scale/granularity.https://twitter.com/dgardner/status/864166026249949188 Permalink 11:49 AM – 15 May 2017
@nntaleb Some write so they can remember thing, I write to forget. in Bed of Procrusteshttps://twitter.com/dottorpax/status/864100932354797568 Permalink 6:06 AM – 15 May 2017
@nntaleb Freedom is never free. It requires risk taking. #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/Zg5H73ptxW Permalink 5:16 AM – 15 May 2017
@nntaleb Mr Kloor, I’m sure that Dan Drezner wouldn’t be excited to discover he associated w/an unethical shill w/Monsanto agenda just to spite me. Permalink 4:29 AM – 15 May 2017
@nntaleb Fixed some errors pic.twitter.com/I9TZvstQbQ Permalink 4:22 PM – 14 May 2017
@nntaleb One can use option algebra to prove Hlawka’s inequality. A note after a problem by Maestro Bogomolny (@CutTheKnotMath) pic.twitter.com/MIJKK6IUkW Permalink 4:15 PM – 14 May 2017
@nntaleb 2) Drezner boy you have never done science so stay in your WP world and don’t lecture on stat procedures. Permalink 2:01 PM – 14 May 2017
@nntaleb Drezner boy before you usual BS outside your field, ask. We want to have data AUDITED but not by someone both ignorant & in bad faith. Permalink 2:00 PM – 14 May 2017
@nntaleb Just did some flaneuring there… But forgot about this passagehttps://twitter.com/JSuchJ/status/863809557478477825 Permalink 10:41 AM – 14 May 2017
@nntaleb The best argument against aIgorithmic decision making.https://twitter.com/Cyberlibris/status/863805681522102272 Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 May 2017
@nntaleb Most convincing argument is the “zero-intelligence trading” experiments by which markets separate from participants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-intelligence_trader Permalink 10:09 AM – 14 May 2017
@RonPaul The marketplace is the natural government of man http://www.ronpaullibertyreport.com/archives/the-marketplace-is-the-natural-government-of-man ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/IGUjZ3cDIh”> pic.twitter.com/IGUjZ3cDIh Permalink 9:23 AM – 14 May 2017
@nntaleb Fake virtue, how socialits tend to not have skin in their game, how Hillary abuses household staff, etc. pic.twitter.com/eUQav4opeN Permalink 7:33 AM – 14 May 2017
@nntaleb What I define as “an assistant” is someone not hired for a specific task (say a plumber, a typesetter), but more general one. Kapish? Permalink 5:45 AM – 14 May 2017
@nntaleb Nothing in the foundations of RATIONAL decision th prevents you from walking away fr0m monetary gains Binmore’s book https://www.amazon.com/review/R28375834E3FQE/ref=cm_cr_rdp_perm?ie=UTF8&ASIN=0691130744 Permalink 3:27 PM – 13 May 2017
@nntaleb Revenge isn’t just revenge. It’s a deterrent. Permalink 2:45 PM – 13 May 2017
@nntaleb In debate btw @MaxAbrahms and @JulianRoepcke, Max proves clarity of mind & logic, Roepcke all bad traits of thinktank propaganda/BSvending.https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/863421610799370242 Permalink 9:31 AM – 13 May 2017
@nntaleb In debate btw @MaxAbrahms and @JulianRoepcke, Max proves clarity of mind & logic, Roepcke all bad traits of thinktank propaganda/BSvending. https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/863421610799370242 Permalink 9:31 AM – 13 May 2017
@nntaleb Resisting Globalization, it turns out, is NOT against economic theory/decision making. Just look at the axioms/foundations. pic.twitter.com/SDTgy4iMuF Permalink 6:39 AM – 13 May 2017
@nntaleb Grrrrreat advice I got: have no assistant. pic.twitter.com/yPcNoraAzn Permalink 5:00 AM – 13 May 2017
@nntaleb “H ratio” minimizes variance of citations across publications. It institutionalizes mediocrity. Better max citations from little work. Permalink 4:30 AM – 13 May 2017
@nntaleb In the presence of conflicting narratives, I resort to @RonPaul as there is not one fake bone in his body. Permalink 4:57 AM – 12 May 2017
@Cernovich “How To Fight The Establishment Propaganda Machine And Win” — Caitlin Johnstone https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/how-to-fight-the-establishment-propaganda-machine-and-win-449f94e1d40b#—119-233 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/lPFwldB0KN”> pic.twitter.com/lPFwldB0KN Permalink 3:01 PM – 11 May 2017
@nntaleb BS Alert: The sentence “underlining a growing credibility crisis for the administration” can be put on anything any time. I despise journos. Permalink 2:55 PM – 11 May 2017
The Skin of Others in your Game
The only way we have left to control suicide-terrorists would be precisely to convince them that blowing themselves up is not the worse-case scenario for them, nor the end-scenario at all. Making their families and loved ones bear a financial burden –just as Germans as still paying for war crimes –would immediately add consequences to their actions, inject that element of skin in the game that is needed. This requires some care in preventing their families from feeling martyrdom –the penalty needs to be properly calibrated to be a nuisance without imparting any form of heroism to the person.
Article: What Nassim Taleb Can Teach Us
Nassim Nicholas Taleb does not suffer fools gladly. Author of several books including The Black Swan and Antifragile, Taleb is known for his incendiary personality almost as much as his brilliant work in probability theory. Readers of his very active Medium page will experience a formidable mind with no patience for trendy groupthink, a mind that takes special pleasure in lambasting elites with no “skin in the game.”
@nntaleb A Greek-Orthodox (me) will give a short lecture about reviving the language of the Maronites in …an Armenian place of worship in NY.https://twitter.com/rwnicholson_/status/862487002398195712 Permalink 7:28 PM – 10 May 2017
@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/kOVTwQCQl5 Permalink 5:36 PM – 10 May 2017
@nntaleb It is easier to fool someone perceived as “intelligent” than a doorman. Just use abstract words in your argument. Permalink 3:57 PM – 10 May 2017
@nntaleb I don’t drink beer. Would bourbon do?https://twitter.com/realistgrower/status/862398036584022016 Permalink 1:20 PM – 10 May 2017
@nntaleb “Intelligent” Ivy-league people (those exam-taking idiots, IYIs) are structurally selected for finding patterns, not doubting them. Permalink 9:49 AM – 10 May 2017
@nntaleb Conspiracy theorizing reflects minds evolved enough to see patterns, but insufficiently to prune out the spurious. #FooledbyRandomness Permalink 9:13 AM – 10 May 2017
@RyderCleary WSJ editors have been reading their @nntaleb. #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/ZbE2V7wuFI Permalink 8:31 AM – 10 May 2017
@nntaleb Year end picture & class party w students of my class at School of Engineering NYU @nyutandon pic.twitter.com/kAK2E6cF81 Permalink 4:04 PM – 9 May 2017
@nntaleb Standing press (clean and press without the clean). Permalink 2:38 PM – 9 May 2017
@nntaleb Friends, what is the press equivalent to deadlifting 400lb? Permalink 2:35 PM – 9 May 2017
@MaxBlumenthal Bana Alabed & the White Helmets build on a grand tradition of pro-war psy-ops, most notably this Gulf War-era scam: http://www.nytimes.com/1992/01/15/opinion/deception-on-capitol-hill.html Permalink 12:20 PM – 9 May 2017
@CynicalSceptic_ Every day is a good day when @nntaleb and @GadSaad shit on the elitist establishment. God bless both of you!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/861922504813797376 Permalink 6:23 AM – 9 May 2017
@nntaleb Corrected typos pic.twitter.com/hRUnADCV9k Permalink 5:36 AM – 9 May 2017
@nntaleb The skinny-fat warmonger is something new in history. Opening the discussion for my evo friends @johndurant @primalpoly @GadSaad pic.twitter.com/dnlSI3c12P Permalink 5:35 AM – 9 May 2017
@saifedean 5 decades of being predominantly unproductive consumers living off petrodollar rents cannot be reversed in a year, or even in a generation. Permalink 4:09 AM – 9 May 2017
@nntaleb If you worry about your reputation you don’t deserve to have one. Permalink 1:37 PM – 8 May 2017
@nntaleb Michael Flynn knew about Obama’s support for AlQaeda “rebels”https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/861611846452862976 Permalink 11:11 AM – 8 May 2017
@nntaleb The same probability as Hillary Clinton getting the Clay Prize for a complete mathematical solution of the P-NP problem or Navier-Stokes Eqhttps://twitter.com/tragure/status/861567498906456068 Permalink 6:18 AM – 8 May 2017
@nntaleb “To succeed, you need 2 things: ignorance and confidence” & “To fail, you need 2 things:ignorance and confidence” Defines #SurvivorshipBiashttps://twitter.com/howardshore/status/861544044886929409 Permalink 5:35 AM – 8 May 2017
@nntaleb The BS-buster @DanielLMcAdams debunks @anneapplebaum who’s half way between an unintelligent wind-vendor & a dangerous warmonging shill.https://twitter.com/RonPaulInstitut/status/861415665718218754 Permalink 4:58 AM – 8 May 2017
@nntaleb Nontraders & bureaucrats are under the illusion that if demand ↓1% price ↓1%. In fact demand ↓1% can cause (in squeezes) ↓50%! Kapish? Permalink 4:38 AM – 8 May 2017
@nntaleb http://www.thepetitionsite.com/471/732/427/save-man-from-death-in-saudi-arabia-for-quotatheism-and-blasphemyquot/?taf_id=36305784&cid=twitter Permalink 3:37 PM – 7 May 2017
@nntaleb How long before Saudi Barbaria undergoes a deep economic crisis, become literally bust? All it takes is demand for oil to drop by 5-12%. Permalink 2:15 PM – 7 May 2017
@nntaleb Mr Shahbandar, Arab bullshit vendors w/o scholarly credentials who shill for a living are ALSO fragile in their reputation. Kapish? Permalink 2:02 PM – 7 May 2017
@scrollinondubs thank u @nntaleb for all you do outing charlatans. you are a role model to us all via your service & sacrificeshttps://medium.com/incerto/the-skin-of-others-in-your-game-3f51d8ccc3fb Permalink 1:13 PM – 7 May 2017
@nntaleb Those of us worried abt alliance between @realDonaldTrump & Saudi Barbaria hope that he is just playing them.https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/861296116796579840 Permalink 12:34 PM – 7 May 2017
@nntaleb In 1960s, Cyprus, Lebanon & Malta had similar wealth, genes & culture. Cyprus & Malta embraced the West. Lebanon tried “Arabism”. Disaster. Permalink 4:57 AM – 7 May 2017
@nntaleb Clooney fears tweeting when drunk: actors are obsessed w/reputation. Also fears not taking AlQaeds script in Syria. Romans despised actors.https://twitter.com/SVPhillimore/status/860952142865203201 Permalink 2:05 PM – 6 May 2017
@nntaleb IYIs, Intellectuals Yet Idiots, favor things that work in theory but not in practice to things that work in practice but not in theory. Permalink 9:24 AM – 6 May 2017
@nntaleb Something rings strange w/the wage gap: someone has to be an imbecile to overpay for gender when corps profitability lies in the last penny. Permalink 5:45 AM – 6 May 2017
@nntaleb Why people who deadlift /clean-press should have a pseudo-belly for stability: thin waistline is obtained artificially via machines. pic.twitter.com/H4VMLY9eyl Permalink 4:47 AM – 6 May 2017
@nntaleb I just published “The Skin of Others in your Game”https://medium.com/p/the-skin-of-others-in-your-game-3f51d8ccc3fb Permalink 3:27 AM – 6 May 2017
@nntaleb Mitanni were IndoEuropeans. Spec: + Mitanni were J2 + Assyrians and Phoenicians descend from Mitanni who took on Semitic lang. @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/nTEv2toRUI Permalink 2:29 AM – 6 May 2017
@nntaleb That’s Salibi’s bullshit. Looks like it was limited to Damascus. Permalink 4:40 PM – 5 May 2017
@nntaleb French history textbooks hype up Napoleon’s “Egyptology”, do not mention that he attempted to destroy ALL ruins of Granada. Permalink 4:00 PM – 5 May 2017
@nntaleb So either Ghassanids converted to Islam or they weren’t of J1 Haplogroup to start with. Permalink 2:29 PM – 5 May 2017
@nntaleb Friends, there are claims that politicians on the “right” are much more personable & friendly to staff than those on “left”. Any data/refs? Permalink 2:12 PM – 5 May 2017
@nntaleb DNA analyses hint that, contrary to legend, there are minimal numbers of Christians in thhe Levant who descend from Ghassanids. @PZallouahttps://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/860587555250728960 Permalink 1:40 PM – 5 May 2017
@nntaleb Nobody dare to discuss the male-female life expectance gap. Or the male-female prison population gap.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/860547324216586240 Permalink 10:34 AM – 5 May 2017
@nntaleb Nobody is saying we shouldn’t learn about Napoleon. Except he should not be whitewashed. Kapish? Permalink 9:14 AM – 5 May 2017
@nntaleb There is very little that is Mediterranean about the “French” (north of Avignon), except, of course, their language.https://twitter.com/panamaorange/status/860517319201742848 Permalink 8:34 AM – 5 May 2017
@nntaleb Unconditional antifragility of information: it thrives from all visible attempts at suppression. Neofascists (libs, “left”) don’t get it. Permalink 8:23 AM – 5 May 2017
@pauld1981 French are suckers for hierarchy, they believe what the establishment tells them … where’s the Coluche of this time? Permalink 8:06 AM – 5 May 2017
@nntaleb Heuristic: for international transactions, AVOID forum in country w/Napoleon’s code civil in favor of Anglo-style law. HK, SG, US… Kapish? Permalink 6:16 AM – 5 May 2017
@nntaleb If you can make the French believe that a despot, Napoleon,can strengthen the “Revolution” w/an Imperial family, you can sell them anything! Permalink 5:46 AM – 5 May 2017
@nntaleb I fail to understand why Napoleon doesn’t figure out among the criminally pathological nuts of history. Whitewashing by France?https://twitter.com/britishmuseum/status/860468604587868164 Permalink 5:35 AM – 5 May 2017
@nntaleb Aside from that, elections are NOT similar. Le Pen is not Trump, but a professional politician. Permalink 4:05 PM – 4 May 2017
@nntaleb Hillaryhttps://twitter.com/NinaByzantina/status/859492813968486401 Permalink 11:53 AM – 3 May 2017
@nntaleb Haven’t read @BretStephensNYT’s article (I don’t read pseudointellectual NYT). What we said abt climate & precaution https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sZ00Nqu6pY”> pic.twitter.com/sZ00Nqu6pY Permalink 9:14 AM – 3 May 2017
@nntaleb Cory Doctorow @doctorow has been actively & knowlingly misrepresenting & trying to spead fake news about my position on homeopathy. Permalink 5:35 AM – 3 May 2017
@BisayaFilms #TalebXPhilippines pic.twitter.com/oyoMi7bqrZ Permalink 4:47 AM – 3 May 2017
@nntaleb Explaining how to price elections and why Nate Silver is clueeeeeeeeeless about probability. @realHarryCranehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wA_3RwEIqzI Permalink 4:38 AM – 3 May 2017
@nntaleb Gitanos should be able to teach us a few things about flaneuring, survival, & soul in the music. Permalink 5:23 PM – 2 May 2017
@cedantarmatog1 Interesting article on @nntaleb at http://mises.org https://mises.org/blog/what-nassim-taleb-can-teach-us Permalink 1:22 PM – 2 May 2017
@nntaleb Friends, looking for reliable accounts on Spanish gypsies, one that is not written by some English or Cultural Studies professor. Permalink 9:30 AM – 2 May 2017
@nntaleb A government run by professionals is like a form or a trading house run by back office &support people. But firms go bust, govs expand. Permalink 5:29 AM – 2 May 2017
@nntaleb Read @HRW reports abt Aleppo 2016; turned out almost all AlQaeda dictated fiction. They didn’t retract. We should believe them… now?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/859343010244546560 Permalink 4:56 AM – 2 May 2017
@nntaleb Just wrote the central comment of Skin in the Game: Systems learn by removing parts. pic.twitter.com/YalzjWcJut Permalink 3:09 AM – 2 May 2017
@nntaleb Applied math.https://twitter.com/stoicdaku/status/859085724125102080 Permalink 12:41 PM – 1 May 2017
@nntaleb Don’t complain too loud about wrongs done to you; you may give ideas to your less imaginative enemies. The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 12:27 PM – 1 May 2017
@nntaleb Burn old logs Drink old wine Read old books Keep old friends, Alphonso X, #LindyEffecthttps://twitter.com/CaesarIpse/status/859124709987950592 Permalink 12:22 PM – 1 May 2017
@MrAlexisPereira As @nntaleb once said, the reason why Trump is so comically bad at explaining things is that he’s never had a boss. Permalink 9:46 AM – 1 May 2017
@nntaleb #skininthegame Jihadi women find it easy to make pronouncements living in Brooklyn, under Western protective laws. Sarsour is despicable.https://twitter.com/dontcarebut/status/824417602395070464 Permalink 8:34 AM – 1 May 2017
@nntaleb Maimonides, Medical Aphorisms (Heuristics): the young can afford to overeat, the elder should watch his quantities. He found it in Galen. pic.twitter.com/966sk527At Permalink 8:09 AM – 1 May 2017
@nntaleb It is vastly more honorable to get rich THEN go to office than go to office THEREFORE get rich. Permalink 8:03 AM – 1 May 2017
@john_f_hamer @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/KVyXnwNgoQ Permalink 7:07 AM – 1 May 2017
@nntaleb Peace: Neither Ink nor Blood http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2017/may/01/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood/#.WQc9dUTaLO4.twitter Permalink 6:52 AM – 1 May 2017
@maui4321 “An honest public servant can’t become rich in politics.” — Harry Truman Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 May 2017
@nntaleb These idiots don’t get that the pblm isn’t making money, it’s using NONPROFIT sector to SUBSEQUENTLY get rich (Blair, Clintons, Husseins O)https://twitter.com/peterdaou/status/858068645964115970 Permalink 4:44 AM – 1 May 2017
@nntaleb (cont) Which sums up to: “You, and only you, know what’s best for you.” Permalink 4:06 AM – 1 May 2017
@nntaleb Also: Non v ‘e piu bel messo che se stesso On ne trouve jamais meilleur messager que soi-meme Pretty much the foundation of #Libertarianism Permalink 4:00 AM – 1 May 2017
@nntaleb Motto of #SkinintheGame & Liberty “Your fingernail can best scratch your itch” Non scabat caput praeter unges tuo ما بحكك الا ظفرك in1614! pic.twitter.com/p96k7jHiHi Permalink 3:49 AM – 1 May 2017