Published on Dec 7, 2016
A live recording of the viewpoints on behavioural economics by Gerd Gigerenzer and Nassim Nicholas Taleb at RiskMinds International, 2016. Find out more at https://finance.knect365.com/riskminds-international.
Published on Dec 7, 2016
At RiskMinds International 2016 in Amsterdam, we speak to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Former Trader, Essayist and Risk Engineer,NYU-Tandon School, talks about the status of risk management. Find out more at https://finance.knect365.com/riskminds-international
There is inequality and inequality.
The first is the inequality people tolerate, such as one’s understanding compared to that of people deemed heroes, say Einstein, Michelangelo, or the recluse mathematician Grisha Perelman, in comparison to whom one has no difficulty acknowledging a large surplus. This applies to entrepreneurs, artists, soldiers, heroes, the singer Bob Dylan, Socrates, the current local celebrity chef, some Roman Emperor of good repute, say Marcus Aurelius; in short those for whom one can naturally be a “fan”. You may like to imitate them, you may aspire to be like them; but you don’t resent them.
No, Jesus was not a “NonWhite” refugee who would have voted for …
The problem with identity politics is that they are fully ignorant of, among other things, history. And they must be as blind visually as they are intellectually. How did Judeans and Galileans look like at the time of Christ? Not according to your politically driven classifications; and not according to some BS in a 2001 article in Scientific American (based on “scientific” reconstruction of facial features and skin tone from … bones). And don’t assume that Jesus would have voted for neocon hawks, Salafi regime promoters, rent seeking “educated” bureaucrats and state-worshipping IYIs (intellectual yet idiots) — simply, Jesus wanted a separation of the holy and the profane, (see my article here).
@nntaleb Barack Hussain Obama: Created 10 Tr debt for ~11 m jobs Left us w/0000 more terrorists; he FUNDED AlQaeda. All talk. pic.twitter.com/gOMxDHAEsV Permalink 6:43 PM – 27 Dec 2016
@nntaleb One of the 2 papers debunking measures of inequality https://arxiv.org/pdf/1405.1791.pdf Permalink 2:52 PM – 27 Dec 2016
@nntaleb I just published “Inequality and Skin in the Game”https://medium.com/p/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46 Permalink 1:11 PM – 27 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Here he is @GadSaad pic.twitter.com/1SlpPpES1G Permalink 12:09 PM – 27 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Lengthy deliberation; picked @GadSaad, Lebanese Jew, as representative of the looks of Jesus, well known Galilean.https://medium.com/opacity/no-jesus-was-not-a-nonwhite-refugee-who-would-have-voted-for-43779209eea4#.ytdawnhcd Permalink 12:07 PM – 27 Dec 2016
@nntaleb .@PetarLalovic Commission is NOT SITG Permalink 9:54 AM – 27 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Never use “contrarian” for this as it indicates an undiscriminating bias ag. prevailing wisdom,not focus on mistakeshttps://twitter.com/PurviRajani/status/813760625084076033 Permalink 7:01 AM – 27 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Inequality & #SkinintheGame, Ergodicity or why Trump’s financial difficulties helped election. Fixed Typos. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/V38h3XtXwi Permalink 6:48 AM – 27 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Inequality and #SkinintheGame, or why Trump’s financial difficulties helped election. For comments. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/5qIqSJUFNJ Permalink 6:33 AM – 27 Dec 2016
@nntaleb You mean there was a smear campaign agst Flynn because of his moral stand against AlQaeda by anonymous pple like you? @outsh1ned @GenFlynn Permalink 4:17 AM – 27 Dec 2016
@JSuchJ Wealthy is meaningless; use Unwealth: the difference, at any point in time, between what you have and what you would like to have (NNTaleb) Permalink 2:01 AM – 27 Dec 2016
@nntaleb The problem of the “opposition” is that Salafis always take over @CamilleOtrakji (Minority rule)https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.37yn9ribm Permalink 7:12 PM – 26 Dec 2016
@nntaleb My motto is “Never give crap and never take crap”. Version of the Golden/Silver rules to treat others the way you want to be treated. #SITG Permalink 4:07 PM – 26 Dec 2016
@nntaleb This assumes I am offended. Permalink 3:19 PM – 26 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Whenever someone offends me, I try to push his soul so low that he remembers me forever.https://twitter.com/descartesquotes/status/813511350685007872 Permalink 2:55 PM – 26 Dec 2016
@nntaleb I deleted a retweet bec. 1 of the 2 pictures was suspicious. Everyone here with self respect as a scholar or researcher shd do the same. Permalink 2:20 PM – 26 Dec 2016
@nntaleb .@BenDiFrancesco @SEmpiricus @MaxCRoser Pasquale and I are putting a chapter on fake empiricism under fat tails @DrCirillo Permalink 1:45 PM – 26 Dec 2016
@nntaleb This means (as we expected) that SaudiBarbaria ran out of funds to finance AlQaeda & other rebels.https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/813493411449896960 Permalink 1:20 PM – 26 Dec 2016
@nntaleb BShttps://twitter.com/rodrikdani/status/813485991117914113 Permalink 1:04 PM – 26 Dec 2016
@nntaleb More precisely: every 1/10^-5 rise in crime lowers LE by .0065 of a STD (since STD ~10y). In other words, effect is *invisible* @MaxCRoser Permalink 11:35 AM – 26 Dec 2016
@nntaleb God Bless You, Michael Flynn @GenFlynn. Turned out that he paid for his opposition to Obama’s support for AlQaeda! pic.twitter.com/vbExFLS8Ko Permalink 11:16 AM – 26 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Christmas in Aleppo: the will to live by a community Obama tried to eradicate. (Removed suspicious earlier pic) pic.twitter.com/nENwYLqVQo Permalink 10:47 AM – 26 Dec 2016
@financequant @nntaleb I have unilaterally established Saint Longinquus as the patron of the clueless #IYI. Permalink 10:36 AM – 26 Dec 2016
@nntaleb To be polite, Daniel Dennet is not a good person to consult abt what is and what is not science, rigor,& probabilistic inference @Pianomover Permalink 8:50 AM – 26 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Scientism is to science what a Ponzi scheme is to an investment. Permalink 7:33 AM – 26 Dec 2016
@nntaleb It is 6.5% of a year of LE, Permalink 6:09 AM – 26 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Why I spent 2 years reading 7 lines per month of legal books. Intro to #skininthegame pic.twitter.com/IC1EvIoqWu Permalink 5:27 AM – 26 Dec 2016
@DeadLiftCapital when a moron tries to “explain” Trump’s election with psychobabble. Great fodder for a @nntaleb eviscerationhttp://www.newyorker.com/science/maria-konnikova/the-psychological-research-that-helps-explain-the-election Permalink 4:54 PM – 25 Dec 2016
@nntaleb My attempt at the solution. pic.twitter.com/HKphFYrbXc Permalink 12:35 PM – 25 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Mr AlHethail, do you think that because some lowIQ Wahhabi heaps primitive abuse on twitter, I will immediately duck,or convert?@AlhethailMs Permalink 11:42 AM – 25 Dec 2016
@nntaleb The Aleppo victims that the MSM doesn’t discuss. They are tenacious. Respect!https://twitter.com/Nour_Samaha/status/813089678714867712 Permalink 11:38 AM – 25 Dec 2016
@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Compute the life expectancy lost between low (1 in 100K ) and high (20 in 100K). Will see through thishttps://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/811580087502045184 Permalink 8:51 AM – 25 Dec 2016
@nntaleb So publisher sending contract for technical book with @DrCirillo (pending subtitle). We need to start working. pic.twitter.com/nJEvoX051p Permalink 8:43 AM – 25 Dec 2016
@nntaleb How to NEVER engage Salafascists or AlQaeda covert promoters, as they will try to label you so you get ostracized. pic.twitter.com/ba8r5W4NMc Permalink 7:40 AM – 25 Dec 2016
@maxkeiser Christmas in Saudi Arabia? pic.twitter.com/eEWHYib04P Permalink 7:05 AM – 25 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Bullshitter. Where Xtians were minority, there were frequent pogroms. Only Ottomans protected them. See Damascus 1860! @NasserIbnHamad Permalink 6:53 AM – 25 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Mr Hamad, you need to explain logically why being agst Salafascists is “racist”& “hatred” @NasserIbnHamad not random negative words from dic Permalink 6:32 AM – 25 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Mr Ibn Hamad you need to go to some civilized place to take a class in logic before tweeting further incoherence. @NasserIbnHamad Permalink 6:25 AM – 25 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Explain *rationally* what is “racist” in exposing Salafis, a religious sect that DISCRIMINATES agt “infidels” & kills them @NasserIbnHamad Permalink 6:20 AM – 25 Dec 2016
@nntaleb BS: Religious Sunnis are the ones who are biased against the rest of us “kafir”. Shiites sing Christmas carols in churches! @BIZRIOmar Permalink 6:08 AM – 25 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Added the heuristic that people who eat the same food in the Med look alike/have same body language.https://medium.com/opacity/no-jesus-was-not-a-nonwhite-refugee-who-would-have-voted-for-43779209eea4#.atcgrpxc7 Permalink 5:44 AM – 25 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Who are you BSing? He respects Issa of the Quran yet calls Christians “infidels” (kuffars) & bans you from exchanging greetings. @BIZRIOmar Permalink 5:17 AM – 25 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Thanks, blushing, but no compliment counts as much as those related to deadlifting/risk taking.https://twitter.com/BulgakovsPilot/status/812856491229188096 Permalink 7:07 PM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Series of instructions by Sunni authority banning Muslims in West from Xmas wishes/symbols. Why not keep them home?https://twitter.com/MohamadAlarefe/status/811265514056060930 Permalink 6:46 PM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb I tend to block pple who post BS on twitter. @ArthurShuey @FriedrichHayek Permalink 6:12 PM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb I just published “No, Jesus Was not a ‘NonWhite’ Refugee who Would Have Voted for ”https://medium.com/p/no-jesus-was-not-a-nonwhite-refugee-who-would-have-voted-for-43779209eea4 Permalink 3:11 PM – 24 Dec 2016
@michaelmitsakos Lebanese wine, the Incerto, and the impact of highly valuable gifts. Merry Christmas! @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/ZvmaG87D0y Permalink 12:21 PM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Josephus (correction prev was not Ammianus Marc.) pic.twitter.com/J9HWLR0CB9 Permalink 8:07 AM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Julia Domna, Julia Maesa, Ealagabalus again (Homs) pic.twitter.com/I3l9HpwMgv Permalink 7:41 AM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb And Zeno, Posidonius, and Ammianus Marcellinus who were Syro-Phoenicians pic.twitter.com/HiImS6rYnb Permalink 7:24 AM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Here are: Lucian (Syrian), Philip the Arab (who was Syrian, not Arab), Elagabalus (Syrian). BBC=BS @karimbitar pic.twitter.com/0gt4WeNp8R Permalink 7:08 AM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb This is Septimus Severus who was W Semitic. Clearly these imbeciles on BBC don’t know nothing @karimbitar pic.twitter.com/HSK8iOtfAM Permalink 7:03 AM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb This is Caracalla, 100% “Semitic” blood, Father Phoenician mother Syrian from Homs. @karimbitar pic.twitter.com/AeiApv4Rt6 Permalink 6:47 AM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb This is how Hannibal, of W. Semitic stock ~ Jews, 2 c before Jesus looked like @karimbitar (conf by contemp coins) pic.twitter.com/IgdQpRScWx Permalink 6:38 AM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Centrally, Jesus separated holy from profane. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e#.rioj1qdpb @Mcgrooooots @karimbitar Permalink 6:24 AM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Jesus would not have voted for neocon hawks, Salafi regimes, rent seeking “educated” bureaucrats & state-worshipping IYIs @karimbitar Permalink 5:47 AM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb This is total BS, mixed with Identity Politics Jews were Mediterraneans, looked like Southern Europeans.https://twitter.com/karimbitar/status/812646558164516864 Permalink 5:29 AM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb I meant psycholophasters @JamesPsychol @AndrewPMunro Permalink 5:25 AM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb The philosophasters “proved” that high IQ kids “succeed” by getting PhDs & tenure: a circular def of success. @JamesPsychol @AndrewPMunro Permalink 5:24 AM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb It didn’t hit the IYI author that if success not “tied to IQ”, that this “IQ” is a wrong measure of intelligence.https://twitter.com/business/status/812487192211755008 Permalink 3:20 AM – 24 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Truths stated to come out of Aleppo. (Syrians speaking in front of camera mix Levantine w/Cl. Ar. Not the Lebanese).https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/812297239729160192 Permalink 7:18 PM – 23 Dec 2016
@nntaleb 2) Mr Sezgin, in addition to refs & genetics, can’t tell diff betw Turks & Armenians, Kurds,W. Syrian, or Ionian Greeks by looks @MhmtEminS Permalink 2:10 PM – 23 Dec 2016
@nntaleb 1) Mr Sezgin, Cavalli-Sforza et al. The History and Geography of Human Genes. Do you have better ref? @MhmtEminS @ektrit @vicmandrake Permalink 2:08 PM – 23 Dec 2016
@MIG29_ Aleppo’s small Catholic minority are preparing the Saint Elias Cathedral for its first Christmas mass in five years By @AFP pic.twitter.com/jnXOyv2RR4 Permalink 1:55 PM – 23 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Mainstream Media @gpbfinance Permalink 10:19 AM – 23 Dec 2016
@nntaleb MSM are low IQ to argue ag US-Russian normalization on grounds Putin is”autocratic”. Because China, SaudiBarbaria… pic.twitter.com/ouL4H2EHEt Permalink 10:16 AM – 23 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Copts/Maronites/Armenians bought into a theology because they didn’t want to be Greco-Romans; Iranians didn’t want to be Arabs. @mgpolitis Permalink 10:09 AM – 23 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Dear @KetchumPR, why did you stop smear campaign agst me/posting fakenews/mailing fake letters to NYU [on behalf of Monsanto] early in 2016? Permalink 8:58 AM – 23 Dec 2016
@nntaleb How dumb do policywonks (this guy & friends) have to be to miss that aphorism is abt Cincinnatus not abt love/hate?https://twitter.com/HumanomicsMap/status/812284206042742784 Permalink 8:11 AM – 23 Dec 2016
@nntaleb In Ireland, it is ethnic. I suspect the Irish wd have switched to restoration if the English stayed Catholic. @vicmandrake Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Many don’t get schisms are ETHNIC: Alawi, Shiite vs Sunni; Coptic, Maronite, Armenian, Syriac vs Greek Orth. The theology is epiphenomenal. Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Hilarious: @rcallimachi google translates “Agency” as “port” & “News Agency” as “depth” https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/812284387630977024 Permalink 6:41 AM – 23 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Shiites singing christmas carols in a Lebanese church http://go.shr.lc/2hVWwNq Permalink 6:31 AM – 23 Dec 2016
@nntaleb The rule applies to businesses with skin in the game problems. @jhackIV Permalink 4:55 AM – 23 Dec 2016
@republicofmath #FF for great mathematics @CutTheKnotMath http://www.cut-the-knot.org ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/pHeFpPcM73″> pic.twitter.com/pHeFpPcM73 Permalink 3:44 AM – 23 Dec 2016
@clairlemon It’s almost like the @washingtonpost want us to believe this guy is the victim pic.twitter.com/KCqms66dZS Permalink 1:23 AM – 23 Dec 2016
@BBassem7 The fact that Ken thinks Saudi is pressing for secular and free Syria is quite amusing https://twitter.com/kenroth/status/660721995810779136 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qXzHnynKYW”> pic.twitter.com/qXzHnynKYW Permalink 5:17 PM – 22 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/749z8LaMma Permalink 5:13 PM – 22 Dec 2016
@nntaleb I give my students in quant-risk class the option to deadlift …https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/812075349043531777 Permalink 3:21 PM – 22 Dec 2016
@nntaleb The best researcher is the one who hates academia, the best politician the one who hates politics, best bureaucrat one who hates bureaucracy Permalink 1:55 PM – 22 Dec 2016
@BBassem7 I will be dedicating this thread to show you how most commentators on Syria have no clue what they are talking about. We start with @KenRoth pic.twitter.com/COlAxDcCK9 Permalink 8:23 AM – 22 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Remember! Terrorist is of same broad Salafi as: AlQaeda aided in Syria by Obama, UK, & MSM SaudiBarbaria Kapish?https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/811919538820411393 Permalink 5:47 AM – 22 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Linda problem means here that the statement doesn’t reveal TheDonald’s preferences rather the distribution of facial hair in population. Permalink 4:44 AM – 22 Dec 2016
@JamesMarsh79 Trump needs to get rates back to 3% and fire every PHD economist on the fed Permalink 7:29 PM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb The answer is 5- Information Theory Permalink 7:19 PM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb In other words,if among pple Trump likes, there aren’t that many pple w/facial hair, it’s because there aren’t many w/facial hair in biz/gov Permalink 7:11 PM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Reminder: I block journos who use my handle/clutter my feed @thebamoor @mbaram @_SidVerma @TheStalwart @MarcHochstein @ejenk @MazMHussain Permalink 6:45 PM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Bingo! Information Theoretic view of things. Permalink 6:33 PM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb This idiot just fell for the Linda Problem. There are not many people in biz & gov with a mustache/beard.https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/811723039113183232 Permalink 5:40 PM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb INCERTO 1- FBR Noise/Signal 2- TBS Tail events 3- Procrustes – Aphorisms 4- Antifragile – Convexity/Asymmetry 4b- Skin in the Game 5- Guess Permalink 4:28 PM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Randomhttps://twitter.com/gmax1mum/status/811728929123729408 Permalink 4:25 PM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb The great Arthur De Vany is back; discusses the mechanism of robustness, fragility & aging. https://youtu.be/G92kHgieiKk via @YouTube Permalink 1:17 PM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Isn’t the other side also abt dictatorship? @andresbejar3 Permalink 1:12 PM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Imbecile, go give your unsollicited advice to someone else. @VernonGlobal Permalink 10:12 AM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb You cannot hide some facts for too long. Syria, Aleppo: why did the MSM support Al Qaeda side of the story?https://twitter.com/BenSwann_/status/811413611625283586 Permalink 10:09 AM – 21 Dec 2016
@Tubbyturkey Christmas presents for my credit team @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/aWuYQQMTuu Permalink 9:36 AM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb That was before deadlifts. Today I would have broken the table. Permalink 9:26 AM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb How I exploded at economists & Rogoff in 2008https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-Km9qo5JyA Permalink 9:17 AM – 21 Dec 2016
@NIRPUmbrella WATCH: #wednesdaywisdom – @nntaleb He even takes a jab at the #IYI @krogoff to boot. “Tie wearing Harvard economist.” pic.twitter.com/27ULarMksf Permalink 8:13 AM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Was taught that heuristic 33 ago by FatTonies. “Never hire a well dressed option trader”, DH 1996 #LindyEffecthttps://twitter.com/EmanuelDerman/status/811574580661944320 Permalink 6:54 AM – 21 Dec 2016
@nntaleb Statistics is NOT counting past events; sample mean != true mean. That applies even more to terrorism. @DrCirillo @TedGnuchev Permalink 6:47 AM – 21 Dec 2016
@ynotez @random_walker I think @nntaleb would agree with you :) pic.twitter.com/vUoEfdMZDo Permalink 6:30 AM – 21 Dec 2016
@dannyhakim “The Syngenta statement is not correct.” A look at an agchem company’s reinterpretation of a damaging study.http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/20/business/fact-check-paraquat-weed-killer-parkinsons.html?action=click&contentCollection=Business%20Day&module=RelatedCoverage®ion=Marginalia&pgtype=article Permalink 4:25 AM – 21 Dec 2016