Monthly Archives: April 2016

Psychology, Noah Smith, Kapish?, Saudi Barbaria, Bernie, Ottomans, Yugo, Lebanon | Twitter

@MaxAbrahms The problem isn’t that Hillary makes foreign policy mistakes, but that she makes the same mistake over & over again:https://twitter.com/capreble/status/723849697245442048   Permalink 5:32 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb بمالطه بيكتبوا لغه ساميه بالحرف اللاتيني @adnanhobalah @ZJoureir Permalink 11:47 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb La2. Sa3iid 3akl kan ma7sour billebnene. Ana bilshami (ye3n3 el suriyye w se2er el mashre2 bima biyon el daffe elgharbiyye.) @ZJoureir Permalink 11:11 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/ mitlma el telyene ballash bi-Dante 3eyzin 7ada yektub adab bil-shami. Permalink 10:58 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb El3uroube wellgha el3arabiyye killa tezwir tari5e. El-shami ligha lawa7da bte2rab el-3arabe wel-arame, 3ayzin niktub kitub fiya latballesh. Permalink 10:55 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Kurzweil is not dangerous at all: the fool will give a test case of failure to outsmart opaque & complex systems.https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/723909943796076546   Permalink 9:32 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fake kebbe: made out of a vegan paste (w/fennel) for Orthodox lent.pic.twitter.com/FWeAiJfTF8 Permalink 3:10 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Pleased to see the Arabic script phased out in Lebanon, mostly Christian areas. Next: replace Arabic by #Levantinepic.twitter.com/VGGkHiYGvI Permalink 3:01 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@Peepsqueak Turns out Scientific American is a Monsanto shill! http://huff.to/1Sp5mNQ   |@nntaleb rt @PhonkArtpic.twitter.com/430C40CmKN Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mediterranean mezze (tapas) with local araq ouzo Beirut style. The Mediterranean is about small plates.pic.twitter.com/5a6UymSzLQ Permalink 11:17 AM – 21 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Letting the media monitor itself & influence policy is letting those at the bottom in both streetsmarts & schoolsmarts run the world. Permalink 1:57 AM – 21 Apr 2016

@Hayder_alKhoei From Pakistan to Mali, Saudi-financed madrasas have popped up and cultivate religious extremism & terrorism http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/21/opinion/obama-in-saudi-arabia-exporter-of-oil-and-bigotry.html   #pt Permalink 10:29 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Information is like a *swelling* balloon. It grows with time.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/722591957030076416   Permalink 11:19 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Answer: If s[x]>0 for {x:F>1/2} => \int is >0. Background:The grrrreat M. Gell-Mann said work with prob outside [0,1]. It is just a weight! Permalink 5:23 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Said to be the Aramaic used by Egyptian admins. Countries didn’t switch to Ar. immed.;adapted Aramaic. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/718927788925804544   @HanySonbaty Permalink 5:17 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Achemenid Aramaic in Egypt (“Imperial Aramaic”) @HanySonbatypic.twitter.com/9gqjcsu42y Permalink 5:06 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Egypt spoke some Aramaic for ~1200 years before the Arab invasion. @HanySonbaty Permalink 4:50 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Now the core of the problem (still jetlagged!)pic.twitter.com/wbD8nXQZgB Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@adnanhobalah #syria @asadabukhalil @PierreABISAAB مش لازم نضل تاركينون يسرحوا و يمرحوا مدعي الخبره الاكيديميه ببلاد الشامhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/722835760160706561   Permalink 4:06 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb OK, first is true, second is false, but reveals an important inequality.pic.twitter.com/bQ3ZizKQ86 Permalink 4:25 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Aramean came to Egypt before Arabic (“mayya”, etc.) via the Persian invasion. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm   @HanySonbaty Permalink 4:16 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Removed more typos (jet lag). Proved first one, second TK.pic.twitter.com/GwKiSBSPrS Permalink 4:11 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Deleted tweets with typos and added conditions.pic.twitter.com/4FSKZCdf6n Permalink 3:58 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 7akiyna a2rab 3al-Arame minel 3arabehttps://twitter.com/THE_47th/status/722916556334714880   Permalink 3:42 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Antifragility and scale.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/710513143387185152   Permalink 1:51 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I got tipped off when @janinedigi (innocently) tweeted atrocities by Assad that were pictures of children in Lybia.https://twitter.com/JacksonDiehl/status/722829299657494528   Permalink 11:12 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic: When a ME think tank defines itself as “nonpartisan”, it is funded by Saudi Barbari/other Wahabi states.pic.twitter.com/IxQ2Tqp3eT Permalink 10:14 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I am just conveying what everyone who doesn’t have a Phd in bullshittology called pol sci knows.https://twitter.com/raheeln/status/722823972035936256   Permalink 10:07 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In Lebanon sipping arak & heard something to got me enraged at think thanks. How Saudi Arabia captured Washingtonhttp://www.vox.com/2016/3/21/11275354/saudi-arabia-gulf-washington?utm_campaign=vox&utm_content=feature%3Atop&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter   Permalink 10:04 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Debunking some spin about the Syrian warhttp://www.joshualandis.com/blog/presidents-al-assads-first-speech-an-insiders-account/   Permalink 9:05 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic. For a vacation place that’s not spoiled, not corrupt: no ski slopes, & no beaches. Permalink 7:21 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb To keep a balloon under water, you need to spend more & more energy.The DC lobbyist for Saudi Arabia can’t stop thishttp://nypost.com/2016/04/17/how-us-covered-up-saudi-role-in-911/   Permalink 6:05 PM – 19 Apr 2016

@DavidBCollum Lindsey Graham admits he’s a complete idiot/wuss/Saudi protectorhttps://twitter.com/thehill/status/722564703055167488   Permalink 5:06 PM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Someone saying “ethics is good for success” is missing the entire point of ethics. Permalink 9:10 AM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Saudi prince arrested in Leb for drug smugling. Saudis blackmailed Leb to release him. Leb said no, pull your $$.US will have same pride. Permalink 12:21 AM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb US says Saudi government has nothing to do w 9/11; only “members” of Saudi establ/Royal family that…run the placehttps://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/722251489494700032   Permalink 10:31 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I am on my way to Beirut one of the very few places where Saudi Barbaria cannot reach me. Permalink 2:51 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This is biggggg! They are progressively losing the state of denial that Saudi Arabia WAS indeed funding Jihadists.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/722172847351848961   Permalink 2:28 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb DEBATE: Ethical to give a women-only scholarship for the risk certificate? http://realworldrisk.com   @stevenstrogatz Permalink 9:39 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The EU developed into a tool for the bureaucratic class and lobbyists, hence as such will blow up. @hughhopper Permalink 9:30 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) The point is that if the Treasury needs junk math to convince you to stay, they did not find real aguments against it. @hughhopper Permalink 9:28 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr @tomstafford, again I asked you for a SINGLE counterample of a psych paper that got my Th. 1. One single will do.https://twitter.com/tomstafford/status/721621901089579008   Permalink 9:04 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Observe in my expurgating the system of BS-operator @Noahpinion how ethics follow the tenacious minority rule http://fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf   Permalink 8:04 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@zerohedge @nntaleb one reaction to the black swan piece http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-18/one-trader-finally-loses-it   Permalink 7:41 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I did write that book. It is called Antifragile.https://twitter.com/EngineerDiet/status/722068382800035842   Permalink 7:27 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Even without fat tails” is like saying “assume you remove one’s head”. @noise_random @rorysutherland @CravenPartners @Gerald_Ashley Permalink 7:18 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Why the UK Treasury equations are, mathematically, BS:in Silent Risk @CravenPartners @rorysutherland @Gerald_Ashleypic.twitter.com/WoJrOH3lCi Permalink 6:11 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Page to protect pple from Noah Smith @noahpinion BS operator and troll wBloomberg megaphone http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html  pic.twitter.com/6kaEwla8l6 Permalink 5:46 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Another oddity: the Ottomans until 1800s preserved Orthodoxy (deal w/Patriarch): Populations under them were Orth (Serbia vs Croatia) Permalink 5:42 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Indeed Machiavelli boasts of “bloodless wars”: knights had tough armor so were more like bar fights! technology=murder @alexapostolides Permalink 3:48 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My thesis director was a woman and there were 2 woman mathematicians on my committee. @stevenstrogatz Permalink 3:46 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nation State: Pre-unification of Italy battles were frequent but small e.g. Anghiari (~900 v.), Molinella (~600). WW1: 650,000 Italians died Permalink 3:33 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nero di Seppia. Last time before Orthodox Easter.pic.twitter.com/pLvxxQCQtk Permalink 4:57 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Not true. Not twice the intensity. More like … 10 times (part for those who are offensive to the general public).https://twitter.com/pauld1981/status/721810180162203648   Permalink 3:28 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We need to prevent Bloomberg from becoming a trolling platform https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/noah2.pdf   @davidjshipley @noahpinionpic.twitter.com/TnlXHbHFxW Permalink 3:24 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Here is the recent rigorous examination of the Christians under Umayads: Not so rosy. https://oi.uchicago.edu/research/publications/lamine/lamine-1-christians-and-others-umayyad-state   @BewilderedCopt @beshymike Permalink 2:25 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We know know that the Dhimi status was periodically rescinded, particularly under the abbasides @BewilderedCopt @beshymike Permalink 12:50 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Syria will have the same cyle as post Habsgurg Eastern Eur: after merger, Yugo back into more homogeneous states.https://twitter.com/sodronen/status/721760131743150081   Permalink 11:03 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A simple point in the article that explains why @Noahpinion failed his academic career.pic.twitter.com/7tINfCUHxi Permalink 10:54 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Historical rigor => comparing mores year by year: compare Ottomans 1480 to Europe 1480 (inquisition). Kapish? @drubald Permalink 10:36 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Irony of history:the more the Ottomans got Westernized,w/West structures/laws,the more they killed Christians @lilbabykeffiyeh @candela3paz Permalink 10:21 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In 1800s “The Mohammedan Wrld” was represented by a Greek FM.1980s:Egypt did not grant a Copt, Boutros-Ghali the rank of minister @beshymike Permalink 10:16 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Oddities of history: a Greek, Caratheodory Efendi (father of the mathematician) representing “the Mohamedan world”pic.twitter.com/awhReWggG2 Permalink 9:58 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Ottomans weren’t likeable; but Arabs were vastly more intolerant of Christians than the Ottomans. @beshymike @iShabi7a Permalink 9:47 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I vote for half of Bernie, for foreign policy.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/721733402714615808   Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Partly but remember Ottomans welcomed Sephardic Jews (Tessaloniki) & had Greek prime ministers. Not all black and white @lilbabykeffiyeh Permalink 9:11 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The very idea of Turkey as “nationality” was absent bef. Greek indep 1820 (even then, subjects), dev. after German and Italian unifications, Permalink 8:42 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You mean do NOT put probabilistic rigor into decision theory? @tomstafford Permalink 8:31 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nobody is saying Ottomans were social workers. But they tolerated minorities so long as there was $, unlike Turkish nationalists. @airdummer Permalink 8:19 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In Antifragile I discuss switch from imperial and tolerant Ottoman Empire to ethnic Turkish nationalism of late 19th Century with massacres. Permalink 8:12 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb It Christian minorities have survived in the Levant, it is thanks to policies of the Ottoman empire. Reversal started with nation-states. Permalink 7:27 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Russia has nuclear weapons. The US has nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia has a large royal family with prediabetes. @Alea_ Permalink 6:28 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb And the Saudis already have a lot of gold,and Euro-based investments. They don’t have to sell $600 bn. And real estate…@sanatanabhasha Permalink 5:42 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Those who sell “precious” metals will receive … $$ it is a myth that money “leaves”, only price pressure @sanatanabhasha Permalink 5:37 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Lakens your paper is a verbose handwaving looping soup;I require rigorous mathematical presentation. @lakens @JPdeRuiter @Neuro_Skeptic Permalink 5:21 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@LaplaceHomeBoi @AdrianSterry @nntaleb @RudyHavenstein I propose the ‘NNT-value’. This measure the power of propagating bullsh*t until @nntaleb catch you Permalink 4:31 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Noah Smith @Noahpinion will resign from Bloomberg. He cannot use it a troll-platform @TonySandos @AdrianSterry @RudyHavenstein Permalink 3:37 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I could find a SINGLE book or paper in the psych of decisions that gets the point of Th 1. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  https://twitter.com/tomstafford/status/721621901089579008   Permalink 3:34 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Show a single COUNTEREXAMPLE of a psychology paper that does not violate the theorem 1. @jlmcht Permalink 3:33 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@AdrianSterry @RudyHavenstein @nntaleb NNT responds to assholes .0001% of the time, it’s just that instead of telling them to f*** off,he destroys them Permalink 2:35 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The other accounting pbm w/Saudi Arabia: by the time they start selling their reserves, now only $600b will be reduced by $300 bn Permalink 7:30 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Finally getting a compliment about Saudi Arabia.https://twitter.com/LongShortTrader/status/721525231173636096   Permalink 7:28 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Never hit the Obama administration, threatened by Saudi Arabia’s divestment, to ask: where will you put your $750bn? In Kuwaiti Dinars? Permalink 7:23 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Where we get more coherence from the Daily News than the “intellectual” NYT.https://twitter.com/GEsfandiari/status/721513453383524352   Permalink 7:10 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith were you”resigned” from Stony Brook for inability to do research or did you depart on your own? Was Bloomberg informed? @Noahpinion Permalink 6:07 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Added more to paper showing equity premium puzzle is miscalculated, an extension of Th 1. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  .pic.twitter.com/iZQuxGEpzV Permalink 3:42 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Democracy Shmemocracy, vague and gamable constructs. What matters is governance, absence of an agency problem, absence of rent seeking. Permalink 3:06 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms What’s amazing is how little Americans seem to care about Saudi involvement in 9/11, except for the widows https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/status/721451629644529664  . Permalink 2:37 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith so you wrote a critique of Karthik Arthreya’s book w/o having read it? “On the disgusting side” @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/UvSyrigQPU Permalink 2:12 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@Buy_Hold_Drink @nntaleb deals smackdown to @Noahpinion over shotty reporting. If reporters question the people, who questions the reporters? NN, that’s who Permalink 1:19 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith are there other books you’ve written abt w/o having read & if so, which ones? Or do you want someone else to reveal? @Noahpinion Permalink 1:11 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Noah Smith’s credibility is now gone (more TK) but by stopping at Bloomberg I would be letting down authors victimized by media. @Noahpinion Permalink 12:51 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@DFSalbatross @nntaleb there is nothing i enjoy more than seeing you go after people like this. of all applications of your philos, ethics most important Permalink 11:53 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb So, Mr Smith, if someone asks you to mispresent something, and you complied, it ceases to be a misrepresentation? @Noahpinion Permalink 11:48 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Journos feel ENTITLED to write anything they can spin about you. Try to make them accountable & they freak out.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721392300446711808   Permalink 10:42 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb So you mean the dean encouraged you to hide you were no longer prof. to gain credibility as columnist, Yes/No? @Noahpinion Permalink 10:39 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Because I have the means, the audience & the will, I am morally obligated to vindicate authors terrorized by the press & make it accountable Permalink 10:10 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith, “a year leave?”. Your dean said in Jan: “he is not with us” & “he is not coming back”. Was he lying?https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721087624333492225   Permalink 10:02 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb OK, OK. Saints can be dangerous. So I prefer Saint Ron Paul to Saint Bernie though they have similar foreign policy.https://twitter.com/DoubleEagle49/status/721365398357020673   Permalink 8:52 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Not abt wrong but about being ETHICAL & fixing erroneous statements. Press is accountable. Kapish?@PaulThomasiii @Noahpinion @davidjshipley Permalink 8:43 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Breach of Journ Ethics by Bloomberg View & @Noahpinion; staff refusal to correct @davidjshipley cc:@MikeBloombergpic.twitter.com/kcDiYCud3c Permalink 8:25 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb An author *knows* if someone has read his/her book or bullshitting. In the case of Noah Smith it is blatant. @BenGoldN @Noahpinion Permalink 7:14 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@zerohedge @nntaleb he wrote a bunch of comments about ZH without actually having read any of it Permalink 6:20 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb They catching up to the fact that Noah Smith @noahpinion has written comments on The Black Swan without reading it.https://twitter.com/opento/status/721326705185570816   Permalink 6:19 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Try to mentally construct someone with the integrity of Bernie Sanders but with your political opinions. He raises standards! @saifedean Permalink 6:14 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Here is an explicit distribution of P-Hacking, as well as problems with power. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532v3   @JPdeRuiter @Neuro_Skeptic Permalink 6:13 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Sainthood: financially & personally uncorruptible, pure moral integrity. He can be right, or wrong, can’t be bought.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/721317569446178816   Permalink 5:59 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Bernie Sanders has all the attributes of a secular saint. Regardless of the effects of his policies, he brings sainthood to public service. Permalink 5:41 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith tried to use his “academic” status to impart a scholarly credibility to his article. Scholarly he is not. @foxyforecaster @Noahpinion Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fighting terrorism while protecting perpetrators: The Obama admin compromises moral values: ever happened before?pic.twitter.com/byoc7bebB4 Permalink 5:02 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nachkari @LongShortTrader @nntaleb Noah is a partisan hack masking as an econ. He comes off as the archetypal econ that Nassim rails against Permalink 9:03 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Now a harder question, Mr Smith. Did you READ The Black Swan? Yes/No. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:39 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb But you should certaily be fired by any decent outfit for misrepresenting my ideas in The Black Swan in an article. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:27 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If you say thay you are teaching at Stony Brook, there is no problem and I withdraw. Are you a professor there, Yes/No? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:25 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Back to the original question: why are you claiming to be at Stony Brook when you are not there? Why aren’t you answering? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:21 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb It is only criminal to lie under oath or under some circumstances. Try to consult with legal before more bullshitting here. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:18 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If I ceased to teach at NYU I would not find it ethical to claim that I am a professor at NYU, no matter the title. @DreadCrash @Noahpinion Permalink 8:11 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I did not use “criminal”: your actual activity does not match your claims. Why? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:07 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Stop putting words in my mouth. You claim to be assistant prof at Stony Brook. When was the last time you taught there? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:02 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb That’s what fraudsters and bullshitters say when they are caught.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721103376767852544   Permalink 7:48 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb But… I am living well. I am just allergic to fraud & fraudsters. @WLTSchirano @Noahpinion Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This is big: an implicit admission of involvement by Saudi Barbaria, or role of members of the royal family.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/721167105211564032   Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Scheduled for an interview w/Bloomberg TV. But from editors’ behavior @noahpinion I feel moral disgust. What to do? Permalink 7:31 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@TradeScylla Let’s show a little love for @nntaleb. A blogger lied and he didn’t let it go. If only #politics worked like this.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/721052151498338304   Permalink 6:36 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My theory was that someone like Noah Smith who writes BS will have many other instances of BS, hence …https://twitter.com/blightersort/status/721112619327819778   Permalink 4:13 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Another liar: ceux qui se ressemblent s’assemblent. https://twitter.com/amonck/status/721102923879620608   Permalink 3:32 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You have ALL the attributes of an intellectual fraudster. @Noahpinion @arosaen Permalink 3:31 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) And MISREPRESENTING is not an idea problem but a CHARACTER problem. Kapish? @Noahpinion Permalink 3:24 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) Point is not that Smith @noahpinion is wrong but that he actively MISREPRESENTS my work. & this is the 4th time. Msrprsntng is UNETHICAL Permalink 3:23 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I do not think that there is a single academic on the planet who does not notice his “citation” thing.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721088725929762816   Permalink 3:19 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith @noahpinion:agrees w/passage(bt makes me say opposite) His editor @JamesGreiff”Smith sees things differently”pic.twitter.com/UEP4MRfSaj Permalink 3:02 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Liekwise when people are caught making a logical fallacy, they call it a “disagreement”.https://twitter.com/normonics/status/721086028564471813   Permalink 2:26 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith you willingly spread this mistake on citation count. Yours was 0, not 5,483. @davidjshipley @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/TQlD4c69tL Permalink 2:21 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Black Swan about “overestimation”.It’s in CHARACTER for Noah smith to MISREPRESENT. @davidjshipley @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/pIcSM8Xdqu Permalink 1:35 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Because I’ve seen Mr Smith committing other misrepresentations. It is his CHARACTER. @davidjshipley @jon4fish @Noahpinion Permalink 1:27 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Just ask the subject: Mr. Noah Smith have you been lying for 5 months about academic position? @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 1:14 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The dishonest part is MISREPRESENTING the idea. It is a matter of CHARACTER nothing to do with idea. @jon4fish @Noahpinion Permalink 1:10 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Call the University. I just verified with another member of the department, was told the same. @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 1:01 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith SHOULD HAVE changed his CV Bloomberg bio. @foxyforecaster @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:59 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Was informed in December that Noah Smith was no longer at U since he wasn’t fit for research. @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:55 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Further one does not have to write a rebuttal to Noah Smith when it was ALREADY in the book. Have some ethics. @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:44 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We can confirm that Noah Smith has been LYING about his position at Stony Brook. Does Bloomberg condone such BS? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:42 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Dear Mr Bloomberg, @MikeBloomberg, is it Bloomberg policy to allow journos writing about books they haven’t read? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:32 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith have you read T Black Swan before commenting? Is it Bloomberg policy to have journos randomize comments? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:29 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Since Mr Noah Smith I gather you haven’t been at Stony B. since at least Dec, why do you misrepresent position? @Noahpinion @davidjshipley Permalink 12:18 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Once again, Mr Smith, are you currently at Stony Brook Yes/No? @Noahpinion @SpeakingBee @mjd1735 Permalink 12:06 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb David Shipley @davidjshipley is the editor of Bloomberg View. Who was involved in editing/factchecking @noahpinion?https://twitter.com/LucasWilk/status/721050679729647616   Permalink 12:05 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Another point: Is Noah Smith hiding that he was thrown out of academia? It is compatible with his behavior @SpeakingBee @mjd1735 @Noahpinion Permalink 11:51 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Actually given that it was in The Black Swan Noah Smith violated journalistic ethics misrepresenting the idea &book. @mjd1735 @Noahpinion Permalink 11:11 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Bob Shiller is v. honest, just showing since paper is being used. As to Pinker, I tried & tried convincing him privately before going public Permalink 9:43 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr @noahpinion,was told your academic career was cut short at Stony Brook. Why does you keep in bio? Am I wrong? @Kurtosis_ @InjuredThales Permalink 9:40 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb For those who ask: Bloomberg article abt Black Swans has same flaws as the Pinker article on war. Except worse.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/720989442194960384   Permalink 9:26 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb https://twitter.com/MarcosCarreira/status/324801689053962241   Bruno attributed this phrase to you Permalink 8:11 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Shiller paper is flawed. 1) wrong estimator 2) Bad tail prob https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf   @InjuredThales @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/QbwATMYrh3 Permalink 7:57 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Astrology does not influence policy makers, but BS psychology a la Sunstein does! https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153769251858375  https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/720951206860992513   Permalink 6:58 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb As the 5b fine shows, the main difference between Goldman Sachs & other criminal organizations is, simply, better & more connected lawyers. Permalink 6:28 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You look at astrologers as a field of BS,I look at psychology as same but w/arrogance @Research_Tim @Firefly_fan @CoyneoftheRealm @ja_furman Permalink 5:25 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Psychology is so bullshit that it takes outsiders to debunk @Research_Tim @Firefly_fan @CoyneoftheRealm @ja_furman https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153769251858375   Permalink 5:14 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This response illustrates the resistance against anything but a 7th C language –& of course 7th century thinking.https://twitter.com/Quran_Chart/status/720773858316267521   Permalink 5:10 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mistranslation: “Atabeg Zanki God has mercy upon him) shd be “the late Atabeg Zanki”, رحمه الله = ref to departed @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhan Permalink 4:36 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Penguin translator is a BS operator: 60-70 in the original becomes 80. #bewarelazytranslators @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhan Permalink 4:31 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Minority rule: Yunan a Christian confronted 70 robbers; intimidated them t safe passage. @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhanpic.twitter.com/UlZTKBZIJh Permalink 4:29 AM – 15 Apr 2016

Tail Probabilities, Ahiqar the Aramaean | Facebook

Finally put my finger on what is wrong with the common belief in psychological findings that people “irrationally” overestimate tail probabilities, calling it a “bias”. Simply, these experimenters assume that people make a single decision in their lifetime! The entire field of psychology of decisions missed the point.*

If you take the risk –any risk — *repeatedly*, the way to count is in exposure per lifespan. You get diverging results.

It turns out that your grandmother is more rational and more *scientific* than Cass Sunstein who advised Obama on “behavioral biases” of humans, trying to “nudge” us out of them. I am fed up with the class of people who think they know better than us what is in our best interest.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf

*(By entire I mean *entire*, no exception. They may handle biases differently but their equations have the same flaw.)
4/12/16

————————————————-

When the rich eats a snake, people think it’s for its properties; when the poor does it: because of hunger.

The Wisdom of Ahiqar the Aramaean.
(Incidentally many of Aesop’s fables come from him.)
4/11/16

Everyone Worries Too Much About ‘Black Swans’


Relax. They really are pretty rare.

In other words, Taleb might be wrong — people might be overestimating, rather than underestimating, the risk of market crashes.

Some recent survey evidence indicates that this might be true. William Goetzmann, Dasol Kim and the Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller looked at 26 years of survey data, and found that people consistently say they expect things like stock-market crashes and earthquakes to happen more frequently than they really do. This is exactly the opposite of what Taleb might predict.

Source: Everyone Worries Too Much About ‘Black Swans’

Taleb is not taking this sitting down! (Says your faithful archivist tongue in cheek.)
From Facebook 4/15/16

Friends, this is what I wrote in The Black Swan about rare events: they are very difficult to assess probabilistically. Not underpriced: hard to price, hence one should avoid being fragile to them.

Accordingly I have asked for a formal retraction of an article by Noah Smith (someone who has been spreading nonsense for years) and who apparently has not read the book.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-15/everyone-worries-too-much-about-black-swan-events

Another flaw which most certainly explains Noah Smith’s failing his academic career. He takes a book published in 2007 discussing events until 2006, then says “Taleb is wrong” about market estimation of probability between 2007-2016. Perhaps the participants adjusted to events of 2007, the book, or something else. The claim by Noah Smith is about market value of risk, not the structure of risk, which is something subsequent to the book. That his editor missed it is also strange.

Stewart Brand, Stony Brook, Arnold Kling, Zika, GMOs, Mean Deviation, Ahiqar, Fat Tony, The Next Subprime

@nntaleb GMO: @stewartbrand & @mark_lynas are sub-clueless about risk, science… Our latest @mosicr https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Precautionary%20Principle%20Papers.pdf  pic.twitter.com/qUIvEc2RJD Permalink 6:19 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “With animals you make up quality w/quantity; a good human is superior to a thousand” @GhassanDahhan #minorityrulepic.twitter.com/8C0QmlV1hs Permalink 6:11 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb – “Mr T., can you read an Arabic text from the 11th C? – Yes – Didn’t Arabic change? – Alas, not in 14 C, and that’s exactly the problem. Permalink 5:25 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Gardner boy, show antecedent to convexity argument vs fragile. If you can. Bitter envious idiot @dgardner Permalink 4:45 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms Hillary still insists regime change in Libya was a good idea even though Libyans disagree & ISIS now thrives there: http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/14/hillary-clinton-has-no-regrets-about-libya/?platform=hootsuite  . Permalink 3:08 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Is it me or is there something surreal abt an economist on public welfare lecturing independent people about how to invest? #skininthegame Permalink 1:52 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I am not saying tweets should not have *illustrations* for stimulation, they do not need a *proof* if there is one. Kapish? @longitude0 Permalink 1:47 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If you add a picture in a tweet to back-up your assertion, you will sound less convincing. The place for backups are endnotes not tweets. Permalink 1:35 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Preparing Real World Risk Workshop part II in Stony Brook. This is the comparison with RWRI http://realworldrisk.com  pic.twitter.com/3d8GojmRY5 Permalink 11:53 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb So when a GMO promoting “science” journalist refers to a paper that uses P-values, show him this [Section IV] https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf   Permalink 10:43 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Looks like Arnold Kling is rephrasing #Antifragile. The copycat deserves some scrutiny.https://twitter.com/paulg/status/720625255811645440   Permalink 8:24 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A very solid paper by Yaneer et al on other possible causes of Zika, with the usual suspect: insecticide.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/720632525463404544   Permalink 8:21 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb GLOBALIZATION: Ricardo’s Comp Adv is flawed mathematically when variability is added. Put SOME rigor into economics!pic.twitter.com/tTKg2etfjH Permalink 7:54 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 3 Lobbyists 4 Bureaucrats in DC/Brusselshttps://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/720615827544875009   Permalink 7:17 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If the IMF had a randomly selected horse in place of Lagarde the place would have been more realistic.https://twitter.com/ghchammas/status/720462165354917889   Permalink 5:04 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@BryanAppleyard ‘imbecility of an order that has few historical parallels’ John Gray on the West’s Middle East policy http://tinyurl.com/z5epfe2   Permalink 4:13 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@WeAreLebanon Good morning from #Bazal, north #Lebanon By Ibrahim Anouti #WeAreLebanonpic.twitter.com/kTCNARNr2S Permalink 12:33 AM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Bye bye GMOs. A technnology that doesn’t grow is effectively dead. Acreage for GM Crops Declined in 2015http://nyti.ms/23tkPHi   Permalink 1:03 PM – 13 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms When pondering regime change, a key question is whether the regime’s replacement will be better — not whether the current regime is good. Permalink 5:19 AM – 13 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This is not in jest: I’ve seen some in North Syria. Permalink 3:13 AM – 13 Apr 2016

@nntaleb There are people in the Levant with 6 fingers.https://twitter.com/conflictantiq/status/720114626625671169   Permalink 3:08 AM – 13 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nero di seppia. Infine.pic.twitter.com/sMseHkJcw1 Permalink 5:06 PM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Make the GMO imbecile read this as well https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/715862574059937793   @Ernestocordo @randal_olson Permalink 1:25 PM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Economics has been even more wrong for much longer.https://twitter.com/VonNeumann5/status/719911166810722304   Permalink 8:53 AM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Cont: we tracked econ PhDs who went into trading and found only 2 out of 87 survived. Firms like Renaissance never hire economists. Permalink 6:36 AM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Explanation: events & price reaction to events are as Fat Tony says “different tings”. How Fat Tony got rich (& fat)pic.twitter.com/esPtv48lhF Permalink 5:38 AM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I conjecture that if you gave an investor the next day’s news 24 h in advance he would go bust in less than a year. Permalink 6:21 PM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Silent Risk proof of why Mean deviation better than Standard Deviation @WAWilsonIVpic.twitter.com/4DP7YjYTWs Permalink 3:34 PM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A theorem about ruin problems by the Maestro Marco Avellaneda originating from a twitter thread!https://twitter.com/MAvellaneda55/status/719592339380006914   Permalink 11:28 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Which illustrates the wiki entry for Norm L-3 for a Wiener process ||W|| @MAvellaneda55 @normonicspic.twitter.com/RVjAOUX78x Permalink 8:09 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A Brownian motion that never hits ruin at zero Bessel 3 function. @MAvellaneda55 @normonicspic.twitter.com/p2y5vDBELs Permalink 8:04 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary of statistical errors in @sapinker & goons is out (ungated) http://fooledbyrandomness.com/significance.pdf   http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2016.00903.x/abstract  pic.twitter.com/WqQTTGd7FH Permalink 5:04 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@menleben pic.twitter.com/9TuPchZHa1 Permalink 5:10 PM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2- You learn from trading that those who blow you up look “measured” a la Hillary not the wild animals a la Donaldo @Codetie @EconTalker Permalink 2:41 PM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1-Never be fooled by the superficial. The most interventionist/dangerous US prez has been the smooth behaving GWB!https://twitter.com/codetie/status/719270808577818624   Permalink 2:39 PM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Calling out BS is a social obligation for all of us.https://twitter.com/dfsalbatross/status/719146550216118274   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The typical misrepresentation of my work: all members of the Smith family are tall != all tall pple are Smith familyhttps://twitter.com/jilm/status/719147265982603268   Permalink 9:32 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Papers claiming “overestimation” of tail risk assume agent makes 1 decision per lifetime !!! https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  pic.twitter.com/sa45xOWydm Permalink 6:54 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A scenic beach, if easy to reach, will be soon jam-packed; ideas & investments, if both obvious & easy to execute, will soon be overcrowded. Permalink 5:34 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Look at how Monsanto PR firms create fake accounts with female names to harass/defame @RachelsNews, a teenager: https://twitter.com/DanteExMachina/followers   Permalink 5:19 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Ahiqar was of the origin of Aesop’s fables. In history, origin is the upper,not lower bound. http://www.syriacstudies.com/2014/02/06/the-words-of-ahiqar-aramaic-proverbs-and-precepts/   http://www.kathimerini.gr/346660/article/politismos/arxeio-politismoy/h-dihghsh-toy-axikar-apo-th-mesopotamia   Permalink 4:44 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If the rich eats a snake, they think it’s for its properties; if the poor does it: for his hunger. Wisdom of Ahiqarpic.twitter.com/TZ7tTsMJl6 Permalink 3:25 PM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Peer review” in psychology & decision theory doesn’t count. The peer review should be done by 1) physicists. 2) time. (worst of 2). Permalink 10:19 AM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Added a section on “no we don’t use logarithms for utility theory!”. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  pic.twitter.com/rfabeGp3Ij Permalink 9:39 AM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The point of #Antifragile that distributing small mistakes vs top-down mistake concentration =>thintails vs fattailshttps://twitter.com/BrianNosek/status/718812302141714433   Permalink 7:58 AM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Social networks are now forcing companies to become moral; life today is rebecoming transparent (#Lindyeffect)https://twitter.com/FPAction/status/718450334511734786   Permalink 5:27 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Is Fat Tony a real or fictitious character? Permalink 4:59 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Never cross a river if it is on average 4 feet deep.” (1996, Dynamic Hedging)https://twitter.com/Tubbyturkey/status/718581172817645568   Permalink 4:30 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Proves that an econ or psych. PhD makes you know less abt RISK than someone illiterate: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  pic.twitter.com/Xg3qjxrGB7 Permalink 2:41 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I know something about Ketchum prying into my own affairs. However low IQ & espionage aren’t a good combination.https://twitter.com/diegocreimer/status/718425193018953728   Permalink 12:06 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Where we show fallacies committed by such bullshit vendors as Cass Sunstein in the name of “rationality”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/718456742141673472   Permalink 8:21 AM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Mathematical Foundations of the Precautionary Principle, (draft with mistakes) https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  pic.twitter.com/GrL6rritKD Permalink 8:13 AM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb They look like my weighlifting friends.https://twitter.com/andybolton1008/status/718347509328920576   Permalink 3:19 AM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Any self-owned, independent person, #doesnthidehisflaws #sayitthewayitis, when public, could be called “a narcissistic bully”. @EconTalker Permalink 6:06 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@ttmygh …and you wonder why people are voting for @realDonaldTrump The hypocrisy of the political class is breathtakingpic.twitter.com/vo72UebMhe Permalink 5:01 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The next subprime.https://twitter.com/amusechimp/status/718218640911425537   Permalink 5:11 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What every risk taker knows but academics in decision theory/econ don’t: space&time probabilities are NOT the same.pic.twitter.com/RvFdeodOQU Permalink 3:09 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb An economist just said “Humans are not perfect machines”. But machines are not perfect machines. Permalink 11:26 AM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If you do not like aphorisms, do *not* buy books of aphorism. Kapish? http://www.amazon.com/The-Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical/dp/1400069971/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_product_top?ie=UTF8  pic.twitter.com/xPImSSnQAI Permalink 5:20 AM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We are doing very well with our uberization of training http://www.realworldrisk.com   , as in classical times. @JonHaidt @aminterest Permalink 4:44 AM – 7 Apr 2016

The Secret of Fatima

The Secret of Fatima
5.0 out of 5 stars James Bond as a Catholic Priest, April 5, 2016
Review By
N N Taleb
This review is from: The Secret of Fatima (Kindle Edition)
Masterly! This is the page turner par excellence; every new page brings some surprise and it was impossible for me to put the book down. I even read some of it during elevator rides, not being able to resist. And truly sophisticated: Nobody but Peter Tanous would have imagined to cross James Bond with a Catholic priest.”

HatTip to Dave Lull