John Gray and @nntaleb compose a tweet pic.twitter.com/KFZZRWJE1h
— Bryan Appleyard CBE (@BryanAppleyard) February 17, 2016
HatTip to Dave Lull
John Gray and @nntaleb compose a tweet
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Monthly Archives: February 2016
Bush/Saudis, BofE Seminar, Wolfram, Penrose, Scientism, Koura, Olive Oil | Twitter
@nntaleb When will Donaldo @realDonaldTrump discuss Classified links betw Bush dynasty & the Saudis (indirectly) behind 9/11? https://twitter.com/maxkeiser/status/699353190882537473 Permalink 2:05 PM – 15 Feb 2016
@nntaleb PDF of slides (temporary) of my BofE Seminar
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/BoE2016.pptx-show.pdf
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/seminars/180216.aspx Permalink 1:56 PM – 15 Feb 2016
@nntaleb One should wait 10 y before reviewing a book. Just started appreciating
1) New Kind of Science (Wolfram)
2) The Road to Reality (Penrose) Permalink 1:20 PM – 15 Feb 2016
@nntaleb Being openly “pro-scientism” is equivalent of being openly “pro-charlatanism”. @RupertRead Permalink 7:09 AM – 15 Feb 2016
@nntaleb The summary of talk on Fragility at B of E
https://twitter.com/bankofengland/status/699193965795373058 pic.twitter.com/WbR4w48VRU Permalink 5:20 AM – 15 Feb 2016
@nntaleb In Lebanon, the Koura district (χωριά) (my home) produces olive oil, but the high quality is NEVER sold commercially. @ntbay @StopponiMario Permalink 3:55 AM – 15 Feb 2016
@nntaleb Happy that both Bernie Sanders & Donaldo @realDonaldTrump find absurd interventionist policy/support for Saudi Barbaria& rebels in Syria. Permalink 3:30 AM – 15 Feb 2016
@nntaleb LEcture will be webcast here
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/onebank/seminars/180216.aspx
One Bank, The Clinton System, Erudition, Minority Rule, SITG | Facebook
My Bank of England Seminar will be webcast.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/resea…/…/seminars/180216.aspx
PDF of slides (temporary)
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/5…/BoE2016.pptx-show.pdf
Date: Thursday 18 February 2016Time: 4.15-6pmVenue: Moorgate Auditorium, 20…
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Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison and husband (sort of) Bill Clinton represent the reverse skin of the game, that is the worst of the worst of unethical politics. It consists in the use of public office to subsequently get legally rich. Gaming the system is legal but not ethical.
You don’t become a Jesuit priest because it is good on your CV, and because those who leave the orders get great positions in the lay sector. Likewise a political position is not a stepping stone for enrichment.
Interestingly, electors worldwide are getting the point (with the reverse TonyBlairing of UK politics). But not the journos and people who work within the system.
http://www.nybooks.com/…/clinton-system-donor-machine-2016…/
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The Clinton System -
The Clinton System -
The Clinton System
Additional reason I am more impressed by erudition than what is commonly called “intelligence” or skills, or something of the sort. To have erudition requires *not* reading the newspapers.
This is a *via negativa* statement.
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It hit me from the origin of the term halal that morality has minority dynamics. Added to the minority rule.
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We don’t know what we are tawking about when we tawk about risk.
Adding to:
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SITG.html
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HOW TO ANSWER TECHNICAL QUESTIONS WHEN YOU ARE CLUELESS
Humphrey Bogard and his friend infiltrated a Nazi cell in New York, impersonating two Nazi engineers. They had to bluff their way by answering questions when they really didn’t know anything about the subject matter.
It can also work as a hoax: just give a speech that says nothing but looks technical.
Fat Tony, BS Vendors, Class Warfare, Cronyism, Dakhilak, Peter Frankopan, GMOs | Twitter
@nntaleb Fat Tony, how can I be less unsuccesful?
-have no prsonl assstnt/sectry
-But then I can’t schedule meetings, answer mail
-That’s the point. Permalink 6:51 PM – 14 Feb 2016
@nntaleb No worries: the courage & military prowess of the prediabetic pple of SaudiBarbaria limits to terrorism: just unarmed civilians as in Sept11 Permalink 5:49 PM – 14 Feb 2016
@nntaleb My London talk discussing the social science statistical “toolkit” pic.twitter.com/TOgxeu8HfD Permalink 5:44 PM – 14 Feb 2016
@nntaleb Is this a death threat? @time24art Permalink 5:24 PM – 14 Feb 2016
@nntaleb The “best brains” among BSVendors are still BSVendors. https://twitter.com/BNCommodities/status/698998958186766341 Permalink 4:54 PM – 14 Feb 2016
@nntaleb Changed the title once again:
Skin In the Game: The Thrills and Logic of Risk Taking
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SITG.html Permalink 4:51 PM – 14 Feb 2016
@GreekAnalyst Next time you hear someone talk about “class warfare”, show them this. pic.twitter.com/NF8a9httMA Permalink 12:04 PM – 14 Feb 2016
@edsanin “An economist is a mixture of 1) a businessman w/o common sense, 2) a physicist w/o brain & 3) a speculator without balls”- @nntaleb Genius Permalink 8:23 AM – 14 Feb 2016
@nntaleb I love statistical rigor more than I hate Monsanto.
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Investigate before spreading conspiracies. @AdrienClavel Permalink 7:56 AM – 14 Feb 2016
@nntaleb Central delusion: classic liberals who tolerate large corporations but not big government; nonclassicliberals who make the opposite mistake. Permalink 7:53 AM – 14 Feb 2016
@nntaleb Reminds me of an argument by the imbecile Pat Buchanan that “smoking bans are costing jobs” @DavidBCollum Permalink 7:47 AM – 14 Feb 2016
@nntaleb Hillary Clinton Monsanto-Malmaison represents shoddy cronyism: How to game the political system to get rich. http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/01/30/clinton-system-donor-machine-2016-election/ Permalink 6:14 AM – 14 Feb 2016
@nntaleb I did it vertically for space. @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 12:38 PM – 13 Feb 2016
@nntaleb Speculative Aramaic Philology: Root of Lev. & Ar. 3olm علم (knowledge) is Aramaic “strength”, => 3alma young woman. pic.twitter.com/WjoGAU3j6p Permalink 11:52 AM – 13 Feb 2016
@nntaleb Speculative philology of the day: Dakhilak (“I implore you”) in Levantine comes from Western Aramaic (Takhl, takhlak) Permalink 10:12 AM – 13 Feb 2016
@nntaleb Michael Spagat makes egregious errors of significance in a journal called “Significance”, (in comments on Pinker) pic.twitter.com/VvXsdL5rt6 Permalink 9:50 AM – 13 Feb 2016
@nntaleb This is the kind of BS charlatans use to sell their products, with “appeal” to “harming the poor”. Charlatan! https://twitter.com/wrmead/status/698552289053650944 Permalink 9:27 AM – 13 Feb 2016
@nntaleb U.S. readers, have you pre-ordered 2 copies of @peterfrankopan’s book, out Tuesday? You need 2 in case you lose one.
http://www.amazon.com/Silk-Roads-New-History-World/dp/1101946326/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1455381152&sr=8-1&keywords=frankopan Permalink 8:34 AM – 13 Feb 2016
@nntaleb A reminder that the last main external battle won by people from what is now Saudi Arabia is Yarmuk in 636 AD. https://twitter.com/Independent/status/698432890091282432 Permalink 6:30 AM – 13 Feb 2016
@nntaleb Speculative philology du jour:”sahra” in Levantine (night conv)<=Aramaic “sahr” from “moon”:Cannanite סַ֫הַר=”round” pic.twitter.com/MOLVomVICO Permalink 5:47 AM – 13 Feb 2016
@nntaleb As much as I despise Monsanto, it is not a good idea to start accusing immediately w/o deeper statistical scrutiny. https://twitter.com/food_democracy/status/698234383082328068 Permalink 12:06 PM – 12 Feb 2016
@nntaleb I mean “deemed” rather than “defined”. Permalink 9:10 AM – 12 Feb 2016
@nntaleb Slides for lecture on Logic of Risk Taking
Best definition of rationality: what Cass Sunstein defines as irrational pic.twitter.com/9aOrKpqYGa Permalink 9:08 AM – 12 Feb 2016
@nntaleb You can soon expect some message that it is “unscientific” to worry about the link involving a Monsanto product.
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/698149294759612416 Permalink 7:14 AM – 12 Feb 2016
@nntaleb All theories are to be deemed conspiracy theories … until Monsanto fights it with shills on social media. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/698149294759612416 Permalink 7:03 AM – 12 Feb 2016
@nntaleb Something to investigate https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/698149294759612416 Permalink 6:46 AM – 12 Feb 2016
@nntaleb The imbecile should FIRST provide or conduct a proper risk analysis, THEN complain. #BSVending https://twitter.com/dbkell/status/698128664618209280 Permalink 5:37 AM – 12 Feb 2016
@nntaleb The Precautionary Principle page has more details
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html Permalink 4:51 AM – 12 Feb 2016
@nntaleb A reminder that the “science” behind GMOs is largely P.R., no proper risk studies ever done. pic.twitter.com/FFmEobBET9 Permalink 4:25 AM – 12 Feb 2016
@nntaleb Precisely the problem that debt is building and at low rates. If govts need to refinance…. Fragile! @jweinryt @econbuttonwood Permalink 4:22 AM – 12 Feb 2016
@econbuttonwood Deleveraging? What deleveraging? Chart from Manoj Pradhan at Morgan Stanley pic.twitter.com/rws8vQboIU Permalink 1:46 AM – 12 Feb 2016
One Bank Flagship Seminar by Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Tail Risk Measurement Heuristics 2/18/16
One Bank Flagship Seminar by Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Tail Risk Measurement Heuristics
The first part of this talk – The Law of Large Numbers in the Real World – presents fat tails, defines them, and shows how the conventional statistics fail to operate in the real world, particularly with econometric variables, for two main reasons: 1) we need a lot, a lot more data for fat tails; and 2) we are going about estimators the wrong way. The second part – Detecting Fragility – presents heuristics to detect fragility in portfolios. Fragility is shown to be ‘anything that is harmed by volatility’. The good news is that while (tail) risk is not measurable, fragility is.
All places for this event have now been allocated.
View the webcast live here from 4:15pm on Thursday 18 February 2016 16:15 hrs GMT
Join the conversation, use the Twitter Hashtag for this event: #BoETaleb
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/onebank/seminars/180216.aspx